WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
Obama leads 299-239, no change since since the last forecast. As much as we all obsess about every EV, we all need to remember that this summer was just training camp. The regular season starts with the VP picks and the conventions and there are a lot of surprises coming in store for all of us.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. MI moves back to Obama.
Note: Only 3 states have shifted categories on the consensus map since early June and not shifted back:
6/18 FL: McCain -> Tossup
7/9 NM: Tossup -> Obama
8/14 MI: Tossup -> Obama
Of special note is NC, which has shifted 4 times between McCain and Tossup.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 138 EVs. Note: MA is no longer unanimous Obama (RCP has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 50 EVs.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
|DCW Presidential Forecast|
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska (NEW): 3 at McCain-Strong, FHQ at Tossup.
- Indiana: 4 at Tossup, Rasmussen at McCain-Strong.
Iowa: Two at Obama-Strong, CNN still calling it a Tossup. Only July poll shows Obama up by 10.
- Minnesota : 4 at Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup
- New Mexico: 1 Projection at Obama-Strong, 3 at Tossup. This used to be on the 3 category list, but spanning Obama-Lean to McCain-Lean.
- North Dakota - 2 at McCain Strong, 3 at Tossup.
- Pennsylvania: 538 at Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup. Obama averaging up 7 in 3 late July polls.
- South Dakota: EV.com at Tossup, 4 at McCain-Strong
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.