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Obama leads 291-247, a big change of 8 EVs from our last forecast. With both state and national polls tightening, this was not unexpected. Our most volatile projection, 538.com, is now the lowest at 272 EVs.
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. Even though we has a huge EV change, only 1 state changed: MI moves back to Tossup.
Note: Only 2 states have shifted categories on the consensus map since early June and not shifted back:
6/18 FL: McCain -> Tossup
7/9 NM: Tossup -> Obama
Of special note is both and MI and NC, which have shifted 4 times between McCain and Tossup.
Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA (new), MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, AZ (new), ID, KS, KY (new), MS (new), NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 74 EVs.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | FHQ | Elect. Proj. | RCP | EV. com | RM | Open Left | NBC | CNN | 538 .com | .… |
| Date | 8/20. | 8/20. | 8/20. | 8/20. | 7/22. | 8/20. | 8/6. | 7/24. | 8/20. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 165 | 183 | 183 | 134 | 210 | 193 | 190 | 153 | 200 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 57 | 77 | 45 | 116 | 63 | 71 | 27 | 68 | 43 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 162 | 89 | 147 | 112 | 38 | 53 | 132 | 128 | 30 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 60 | 50 | 24 | 45 | 62 | 70 | 53 | 64 | 68 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 94 | 139 | 139 | 131 | 165 | 151 | 136 | 125 | 197 | ||
| Obama Total | 222 | 260 | 228 | 250 | 273 | 264 | 217 | 221 | 243 | ||
| McCain Total | 154 | 189 | 163 | 176 | 227 | 221 | 189 | 189 | 265 | ||
| Obama Est. | 304 | 299 | 297 | 292 | 292 | 290 | 288 | 284 | 272 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | T | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | |
| Ohio | 20 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | |
| Michigan | 17 | T | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | ML | M | |
| New Jersey | 15 | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | ML | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | M | T | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | M | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | T | T | M | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | T | T | O | OL | OL | T | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | O | OL | OL | O | |
| Colorado | 9 | T | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | OL | |
| Oregon | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | O | OL | O | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | ML | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | T | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | ML | M | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | T | T | T | T | OL | OL | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | T | ML | ML | ML | M | T | ML | M | M | |
| Delaware | 3 | OL | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | |
| Montana | 3 | T | ML | ML | T | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | ML | T | ML | ML | ML | M | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | ML | ML | M | T | ML | ML | ML | M | M | |
| FHQ | Elect. Proj. | RCP | EV. com | RM | Open Left | NBC | CNN | 538 .com | .… | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska: 3 at McCain-Strong, 2 at Tossup.
- Indiana: 2 at Tossup, 3 at McCain-Strong.
- Minnesota : 1 at Obama-Strong, 3 at Tossup
- Missouri (NEW): 5 at Tossup, 538 at McCain-Strong
New Mexico: 1 Projection at Obama-Strong, 3 at Tossup. This used to be on the 3 category list, but spanning Obama-Lean to McCain-Lean.- North Carolina (NEW): 3 at Tossup, 1 at McCain-Strong
- North Dakota - 3 at McCain Strong, 2 at Tossup.
Pennsylvania: 538 at Obama-Strong, 2 at Tossup. Obama averaging up 7 in 3 late July polls.- South Dakota: EV.com at Tossup, 3 at McCain-Strong
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
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