WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
DCW Senate Forecast: 56.1 No change from our previous forecast, but our two most Democratic projections, Electoral-Vote.com and 538.com both moved a little but towards the Republican side, making our spread, over all projections, now 1.5 seats, the smallest since we've been tracking the projections. Also, two seats we've been tracking, NJ and GA, are now unanimously safe. We'll leave them on the chart for now, in case that changes.
The DCW Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.
For analysis of the races, be sure to check out the latest installment of Sunday with the Senators.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.
The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup):
Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller)
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), TX (Cornyn), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi)
The sources are sorted by each sources Senate Projection:
|DemConWatch Senate Forecast|
|Dem '08 Projection||18||17||17||17||17||17||17||16|
|Dem '10/'12 Seats||39||39||39||39||39||39||39||39|
|Dem Senate Projection||57||56||56||56||56||56||56||55|
Here are the seats that span 3 categories:
- AK (Stevens) (NEW): Two now at Democratic Strong, Rothenberg still at Tossup
- LA (Landrieu): 1 at Dem-Strong, 1 at Tossup
- MN : 538 at Rep-Strong, 2 at tossup
- NH (Sununu): Shaheen has opened up a 14 point lead in 2 straight polls, but Sununu has a big money advantage.
- OR (Smith) (NEW): 1 at Rep-Strong, 1 at Tossup