Saturday, August 16, 2008

Some Clinton backers blowing smoke on delegate count

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Now that there will be a roll-call at the convention, the next question is, how many votes will Clinton get? We'll look into this in more detail in the next few days, but some Clinton supporters are already making unrealistic claims about the level of support they will get at the convention:

Rep. Loretta Sanchez says she’s happy for the chance to vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton at the Democratic National Convention — and she predicts that as many as half of the Democrats in the House could join her. - Politico
Not likely. It's time to look once again at our superdelegate counts. As of June 6th, when we froze the counts, Obama had the public, announced support of 157 Representatives, Clinton had 52.5, and 22 had not announced. (MI and FL still counted at 1/2 votes). For Clinton to get 1/2 the total votes, she needs all 22 Representatives who did not endorse anybody, plus another 40 or so to change their vote from the winner of the nomination to the loser. That's just not going to happen.

But wait, some might say, how about the NY delegation. Surely they will still vote for Clinton, right? Nope:
Indeed, many Hillary diehards, including at least one member of the New York delegation, are reluctant to vote for Clinton after switching over to Obama.

“I think that most superdelegates, including myself, are going for Obama,” said New York Rep. Anthony Weiner, who campaigned with Clinton around the country. “I made my decision for Obama, and I’m not switching again.”
- Politico
And as a Clinton advisor is quoted in the same article:
it was “crazy” to guess at numbers but estimated that the former first lady would garner between 600 and 1,200 delegates — considerably short of the approximately 1,800 she had collected at the time of her departure from the race in early June.
That sounds about right.

Update: Just remember:
"Clinton herself has said she plans to vote for Obama. " - Politico