Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

We have decided to stop allowing anonymous comments. Not because we don't like reading what people have to say but because Blogger has introduced a new "feature" that makes you go to a second page when the number of comments go over 200.

It's very easy to set up a Google account so that you can continue commenting.

And please be excellent to one another. We do not accept name calling or any attacks on our commenters. Any objectionable comments will be deleted. Try to be civil.

Thanks!

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1514 comments:

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Pablo said...: We could all be a little nicer to each other.

Especially you Bull Scmitt. Stop confusing people with facts, now the likes of Cheryl will never come back and post more meaningful brillance. :(; May 14, 2008 12:08 PM
jpsedona said...: Jean,

you said: "ipsedona just get tired of being called a racist redneck. I AM NOT A RACIST JUST BECAUSE I WON'T VOTE FOR A MAN THAT I BELIEVE VERY STRONGLY WANT'S TO DESTROY AMERICA. I don't trust the man I don't care what color of skin he has Jean"

You asked about what president had ever won the WH without winning WV... I responded by asking who the last woman or minority candidate were that won the WH.

The point being that the nature of the GE whether it's Clinton or OBama will be much different than anything previously seen.

So, I am at a loss as to why you need to express that you are not a racist as a reply to my message.; May 14, 2008 12:09 PM
RobH said...: Hey Jean,

I hope you don't take what I'm about to write as anything less than caring, because, in fact, it isn't anything less than cariing....

As I observe you flip back and forth between congeniality/warmth and lashing out/anger, I can't help but think that participating on this thread is not good for you. I'm not in the medical community, and wouldn't claim that this idea is anything but POP PSYCH 101, but have you considered taking a break? I just think that the degree to which you get so wound up is hurting you.; May 14, 2008 12:10 PM
Joshua said...: Aunt Jean, who is the last democrat to win the White House without winning Washington DC? And did you notice that Obama won more votes than McCain in West Virginia?; May 14, 2008 12:14 PM
Anonymous said...: RobH,
AND?

Martin said...
Just a reminder, folks! Aunt Jean, Jim and Yamaka are ignorant racist rednecks.; May 14, 2008 12:14 PM
B said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 12:15 PM
ed iglehart said...: Two more for Obama!

Whoooooppppeeeeeee!; May 14, 2008 12:16 PM
B said...: If we elect one more of Bush's, then we are all set to go and look for the jobs in India and China. The economy will collapse and there will be a civil war. Trillions of dollars of debt which is increasing day by day will be repaid by who? Taking loans from China will be easy but impossible to repay, same as, easy to loan a house but hard to repay the mortgage which inturn leads to foreclosures. Same might happen to our country if we don't vote against Bush III.; May 14, 2008 12:23 PM
Dave in NC said...: Jim,

Good to be back my friend! I trust you have already gone golfing and turned your Google account over to your 12 year old grandson because that is the speed of your recent comments.

If not, then my other fear is confirmed: that you are the only person with a damp, dark, windowless basement in your mobile home.

Where you sit in your soiled underwear dismembering bodies and putting the pieces in mason jars to store on shelves made of cinder blocks and old used lumber.

Beware, the damp will ruin your keyboard as will that tobacco juice dripping out of your mouth... that is tobacco juice, right?

Though you refer to golf, I believe the only club you are familiar with is made entirely of wood and rests on your shoulder.

Regardless of what the Geico commercials may suggest, you won't get into a golf establishment looking like that!

But my question to you is this... seriously, after a hard day of thumping women, do you like to relax and hang out at a Cro-bar?

or, after a long hard winter, do you like to get warm and neanderTHAW?

:)

Peace my friend, and love (but not with minors); May 14, 2008 12:26 PM
Amot said...: Ed,
I know you like the kids, but they endorsed last night while you were sleeping :) BTW Jean was mad that they are allowed to vote!

"Will nobody hear the cries of a poor old woman?" (I get you know that too)

P.S. Today is my 'Allo!Allo!' day...; May 14, 2008 12:32 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Ipsedona the reason I said that was becuse of a earlier post. I wasn't saying that you called me a redneck racist.

Dave I'm glad that you had a wonderful time and glad that you are back.

RobH I'm not angry I just don't like people calling me a redneck racist when they don't know me at all. Plus Martin has said some very ugly things. He should show some respect that's all.I appreciate the fact that you might be concerned and I believe that is what you meant and I thank you but I'm ok. When I see myself getting real upset I usual get off the blog just like I did with Leah,s rudeness about Hillary with a new blogger. Jean; May 14, 2008 12:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave in NC said...
Jim,
"Ravings of an unstable mind censored"
Dave, are you sure you want to go there?
You really don't have the intellect
for it.; May 14, 2008 12:39 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Amot I never said that I was mad that they voted for obama what I said is I don't believe that they have the maturity to make a good judgement not because I think that they are stupid but because thry don't have the wisdom of years to have something ti go on. I know that you will probable say that we need something fresh and new. But I also think that they should have some years under their belt to make a good judgement.I have several and I do mean several even though smart I do know that they don't have the wisdom to make a good choose just by listening to them and it has nothing to do with who they like.It has everything to do about the reason they would vote for someone. Jean; May 14, 2008 12:42 PM
Martin said...: "I WON'T VOTE FOR A MAN THAT I BELIEVE VERY STRONGLY WANT'S TO DESTROY AMERICA"

Ha ha! I have this image of Obama as a Godzilla-like creature, rampaging through the streets of D.C., uprooting the Washington Monument and using it to crush defenseless babies.

FEAR OBAMATRON! HE WANTS TO DESTROY AMERICA!

(note how the word "wants" does not require an apostrophe); May 14, 2008 12:43 PM
Dave in NC said...: " Mike said...
Aunt Jean, who is the last democrat to win the White House without winning Washington DC?...

Mike - Beautiful!

I just passed through WV on my trip. Made an extensive stop-over in my hometown of Beckley. (King Tut drive-in still has the best food on the planet!)

I drove around looking at yard signs, hundreds of them, far more than here in Charlotte - but all for local candidates. I only saw 3 for president, 2 Obama and 1 Clinton. I thought this was odd.

Then I realized that while I was looking for evidence of the drubbing Obama was about to get, I was seeing evidence of the drubbing either of them will get in the GE... McCain yard signs are not out yet!

Sorry folks, but WV ain't ready for a woman OR a black man in the WH.

WV goes red for the third time in a row.

Then as I returned to I-77 to continue my trip, I drove down East Price Street. There were the Clinton and Obama headquarters, in full regalia, less than 50 yards apart... in the most pro-gun state in the union.

Isn't that how the Hatfields and McCoys got started?

West Godam Virginia!; May 14, 2008 12:46 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Martin you are a lemming not the fairy tale kind. LOL LOL LOL! Jean; May 14, 2008 12:47 PM
Dave in NC said...: We went to war in Iraq to get one man, maybe 3.

We got 'em

But for the trillion+ dollars we spent, we could have hired the Sopranos to wax, at $1,000 EACH, every man, woman, and child in China (and after the earthquake, we would have received a 10 million dollar refund!); May 14, 2008 12:51 PM
Dave in NC said...: Jim,

You got the wrong Dave.

But I am not surprised.

You think that Homo Erectus is that thing you use on little boys.

:); May 14, 2008 12:54 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: I sit here amazed, but I really shouldn't be.

There are folks that keep stating that Obama lacks experience. That is total rubish. He has over 25 years of Community Service and Leadership, and has been elected to public office 3 times.

Please take time to educate yourselves about your next President. You might be impressed if you dig through real information, not the political smear that is on the news and political blogs.; May 14, 2008 12:56 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Dave in NC-

Welcome back.
It's been pretty busy around here. Be careful there has been a lot of sniper fire around here lately ;)

Obama / Kathleen Sebelius '08; May 14, 2008 12:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave, and who made this post?

Dave in NC said...
Jim,

Good to be back my friend! I trust you have already gone golfing and turned your Google account over to your 12 year old grandson because that is the speed of your recent comments.

If not, then my other fear is confirmed: that you are the only person with a damp, dark, windowless basement in your mobile home.

Where you sit in your soiled underwear dismembering bodies and putting the pieces in mason jars to store on shelves made of cinder blocks and old used lumber.; May 14, 2008 12:58 PM
ed iglehart said...: NC Dave,

Perspective on Earthquakes, typhoons, etc.

The only recent natural disaster to even dent population growth was the December 2005 Tsunami, which managed to negate JUST ONE DAY'S POPULATION GROWTH!

Sobering thoughts

xx
ed; May 14, 2008 12:58 PM
Amot said...: Dave, I agree!
WV will never chose a woman or AA!
I am actually surprised of the turnout, I was expecting something like 250K, but maybe more people voted for President because they went to vote for the local officials...; May 14, 2008 1:02 PM
Joshua said...: Clinton won WV delegate count by a ratio of 2.5 to 1.

But Obama beat Clinton almost 3 to 1 in Kansas. He beat her 4 to 1 in District of Columbia. He beat her 5 to 1 in Idaho. He beat her by infinity to 1 in Virgin Islands.; May 14, 2008 1:09 PM
jpsedona said...: Using Yam's delegate math from yesterday... Hillary needed to pick-up 200 of 275 uncommitted delegates (>70%).

That means that for each SD that comes out and endorses Obama, she needs better than 3.5 endorsements.

So far today, Obama 2.5 Hillary 1. That puts her 7.75 behind for the day using Yam's 200 of 275. Of course the day's not over and she may roll out SD's that were waiting for her to win a big battleground state...; May 14, 2008 1:21 PM
Subodh said...: Delegates from Florida and Michigan — all of their delegates — should be seated. I believe we should honor the votes cast by 2.3 million people in those states.. this demand is being pooh-poohed in some circles of the commentariat, but the question for Democrats is: Why is that such a radioactive proposition? This is the party that got rather excited over 537 votes in Florida in 2000, the party that would like to pass something called the Count Every Vote Act, the party that has consistently favored greater enfranchisement over stricter enforcement of the rules (and sometimes the law). Sure, Clinton wants to change the agreement that existed going in to Florida and Michigan, but circumstances have changed, too. Since when have Democrats been such sticklers for unbending rules? Why do so many in the party insist that millions of votes in two key states be counted only if they don’t matter — that is, if the result is a fait accompli — and not be counted if they do?

Obama’s margin of victory in his home of Cook County, Illinois, where, according to the Illinois Board of Elections, Obama won by 429,052 votes . In other words, take away Cook County and Obama is the loser in the national popular vote race. He’s the president of Chicago. He will be loser in the national poll by 454000 votes already.
Thus it clearly shows that Hillary is the real winner nationwide except for Cook County.
Nobody specially Obama cannot win the election based on victory in just one county especially when whites are voting against hime by a margin of 60% to 40% in all the crucial states except for ILLinois.
Winning in small caucus states and get a large delegate is a hollow victory and Democrats will lose the GE if Obama is nominated. It is still not too late

Nancy is right Joint Clinton Obama Ticket Otherwise lose the election. 8 million Democrats will vote against B. Hussein Obama in GE; May 14, 2008 1:25 PM
Martin said...: "there hasn't been a democrat that has won the WH that hasn't won WV since 1916 which is Woodrow Wilson"

This argument is foolish. You can say the exact same thing about Minnesota, which Obama won. Also, a Democrat has NEVER won the election without Hawaii or Missouri (or DC, for that matter) for as long as those states and the Democratic party have existed. Who won all those states this year? Barack Obama.

To say that WV is some kind of bellwether state, or necessary for the Democrats, is preposterous. Of course, we'd like to win ALL the states (and should try our hardest to do so), but there are plenty of other states Obama could win to easily offset a loss in WV.; May 14, 2008 1:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave in NC
You must be out for breakfast. You are under surveillance.; May 14, 2008 1:27 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Amot wishful thinking they came out because of Hillary. Jean; May 14, 2008 1:34 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean,

Please stop attacking me.
If you do not stop I will report you to the owners of this website.

Thank you.; May 14, 2008 1:38 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: According to a new Quinnipiac University poll, both Democratic candidates beat McCain by a gap well outside the margin of error. Obama beats McCain by 7 points in the poll, 47 percent to 40 percent, while Hillary Clinton bests the Arizona senator by 5 points, 46 percent to 41 percent.

From the CNN (Clinton News Newtwork) Ticker today.; May 14, 2008 1:38 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: RCP Average
05/08 - 05/13

Obama 49.5
Clinton 42.3
_____

Spread: Obama +7.2; May 14, 2008 1:41 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 1:46 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike one thing about it even if you take off all the votes that obama got Hillary still got almost 50% more vote.now thats funny.Heck VI only had 1970 votes what a joke dang your funny!!!! I would be embarrassed to even start conparing them. All of the places that you mentioned obama only got 183911 Hillary got 235736 and that hasn't been updated with the new numbers yet LOL Jean; May 14, 2008 1:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave in NC is still eating (done with breakfast and on to lunch) and no, you don’t want his menu.; May 14, 2008 1:48 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah quite attaching Hillary and I'll quit attacking you but Im not attacking you just telling it like I see it. Jean; May 14, 2008 1:50 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah if you would quit making remarks about the sniper fire which is very wrong I would quit saying what I say. You do that all the time and it gets OLD!!! Jean; May 14, 2008 1:52 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Martin dream on. That's what makes dreams so good LOL Jean; May 14, 2008 1:54 PM
JayW said...: Aunt Jean...

After reading all of your posts... I vision you as a really fat, angry, alone woman with a house full of cats.

Your arguments are weak, at best. And the way you put people down shows how you really feel about yourself.

I hope you can get some mental help and be happy... but at your age it may not be worth the effort.

Jay

Obama 08

PS... Aunt Jean--- Obama alrady won!!!!; May 14, 2008 1:59 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Emit - I agree Obama does have quite an impressive resume. Here is just a little bit of it--->

Obama:

-Graduate of Columbia and Harvard

-First African-American president of the Harvard Law Review

-Graduated Magna Cum Laude from Harvard Law; Degree in International Relations

-Declined high paying job and instead worked in poor communities

-Law professor at University of Chicago; Civil rights attorney

-Taught the Constitution, Believes in the Constitution, will OBEY the Constitution

-Illinois State Senator for 8 years passing healthcare for 150,000 people, ethics reform, videotaping interrogations, racial profiling reform, etc.

-U.S. Senator; Senate Foreign Relations Committee, bills including weapons threat, reduction, gov't transparency, lobbyist reforms, veteran's disability help, etc.

-Predicted Iraq troubles from the start and voiced his opposition

-Leadership that brings people to together: Democrats, Republicans, Independents

-A person of wisdom, honesty, compassion, integrity

-Eloquent speaker that inspires hope

Obama '08; May 14, 2008 2:06 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Time Out!

Everyone back to their neutral corners.

LOL; May 14, 2008 2:08 PM
jpsedona said...: Subodh,

Your argument with regard to Cook County is actually a good one. This argument in support of the popular vote makes a lot more sense than including MI into the total of popular vote (with zero votes for Obama).

If I were spinning Hillary's popular vote argument, the math would go like this...

Current: [Obama +593,000]
Less FL: -295,000 [Obama +298,000]
Less MI: -90,000 [Obama +208,000]
Plus estimate for IA, NV, ME, WA +110,000 [Obama +318,000]

Less Cook county: -429,000 [Hillary lead: +111,000]

By being all-inclusive in MI, the argument is stronger than 328,000 to Zero; especially since Obama DIDN'T wouldn't have gotten all the undecided voters and would accommodate some of the voters who didn't tuen out because Obama's name wasn't on the ballot.

The spin is: Include all the votes... even when you allocate all of the uncommitted delegates from MI to Obama, plus give him 110,000 from the unreported caucus states. he would lead by 318,000 votes. If you remove his large margin of victory in his home county (Cook COunty), Hillary is ahead of the popular vote by more than 110,000 votes. And in the GE, would you expect that Hillary couldn't carry Cook County or the state of Illinois?

I think this is a much stronger argument for soliciting support from SD's using the popular vote than the bogus argument of giving Hillary 328,000 votes in MI and ZERO to Obama.

You may want to pitch the idea to the Clinton campaign. The National Headquarters Phone number is: 703.469.2008; May 14, 2008 2:11 PM
jean said...: jayw,
You have no respect for anyone.
You think in ABSOLUTE thoughts which I hope you know is a derogatory comment.
As I tell my son who is 14 "Stop being a Jerk."
He is growing and learning.
Try it.
jean; May 14, 2008 2:12 PM
Amot said...: JayW,
you are crossing the line! Behave, please!!!; May 14, 2008 2:13 PM
dsimon said...: Aunt Jean: To obama supporters: Who is the last democrat that won the white house without winning WV ?

One could also argue that ever since DC got the vote in 1965, no Democrat has won the presidency without winning DC. And Clinton got crushed there.

And yes, that argument doesn't make any sense either. First, it once again extrapolates primary results to the general election, which is totally specious. Obviously, both Democratic candidates would win DC

In this instance, Clinton does do better against McCain than Obama does in WV. But polls show Obama winning CO against McCain and Clinton losing there, which more than compensates for any loss in WV.

As they say in the investment world, past results are no prediction of future returns.; May 14, 2008 2:14 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Jayw in the first place I guess you haven't read all the posts so before you start putting down you really should read all of them and please try and be unbias! Oh by the way I'm 5ft 3 inches and 120 lbs. In great shape no meds and as far as angry sometimes I do get angry beause of peoples pompous attitude.Sorry no cats just small dog. I'm never alone have plenty of friends and a big family that love Hillary.Thank you for your concern but I'm not the one that needs mental help you had better look at the other side. Oh by the way I hate to disappoint you but obama hasn't won!!Jean; May 14, 2008 2:16 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

Should Hillary win the nomination, she will be hearing sniper fire through the GE. If Obama wins the nomination, he will be hearinf about Rev Wright and Bill Ayers through the GE.

Both are fair game. These issues may be on the back burner right this minute but they aren't over by any stretch.; May 14, 2008 2:18 PM
JayW said...: Thanks Jean.

Step away from the fridge and pick up a book.; May 14, 2008 2:18 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 2:19 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Emit on your post from 12:56 that is so laughable obama doesn't even say that and as far as being elected what was the 3rd office? Jean

May 14, 2008 2:19 PM; May 14, 2008 2:20 PM
jpsedona said...: Time is reporting John Edwards is in Grand Rapids, MI. so is Obama today. Wonder why?; May 14, 2008 2:21 PM
Aunt Jean said...: ipsedona I do agree with you all the issues will probable be hearing them . All I'm saying is catty remarks on this blog gets old. More so after she has apologized for it. I've also said that I don't blame obama for what wright said.Jean; May 14, 2008 2:25 PM
Uncle Martin said...: "Jean who is not Aunt Jean."

Heh. You don't really think anyone believes this, do you?

Signed,
Uncle Martin who is not Martin. No, really, I swear.; May 14, 2008 2:26 PM
Peter said...: Edwards will probably endorse Clinton in Michigan to honour her important and historic victory in West Virginia. The fact that Obama won North Carolina with a huge margin and most Edwards backer endorsing Obama and that they are both in Michigan today, should indicate HRC getting an important endorsement from Edwards....; May 14, 2008 2:26 PM
Amot said...: JPS, could he? I mean Edwards... Could he plan to endorse today? I don't think it's the best day - today is the day Hillary won and she has the right to celebrate! Tomorrow or any day after will be fine. Today is her last big victory day! Edwards should work for the unity of the party...; May 14, 2008 2:27 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dsimon do you think what you said about DC that it might just have something to do with it having a large AA pop.Not trying to be insulting just stating a fact. Jean; May 14, 2008 2:28 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Aunt Jean,

Twice as State Senator, and once to Congress. That would make 3. ;o); May 14, 2008 2:29 PM
Amot said...: Peter, are you following the news? Edwards has hinted several times he will endorse Obama. the question is when! Does Obama has any scheduled events in MI?; May 14, 2008 2:30 PM
jpsedona said...: Obama has a 7pm rally in Grand Rapids, MI; David Bonior came out last week in endorsing Obama; Edwards spent a lot of time in MI last year to woo the union vote.

His speech will likely include an wholehearted endorsement of the MI Dem Party plan to seat MI delegation (69-59).

So, is it a good place for Edwards to endorse Obama? Yup.; May 14, 2008 2:32 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Uncle Martin my name is correct not only am I aunt jean but great aunt jean about 17 greats ago. Jean; May 14, 2008 2:33 PM
jean said...: Jayw.
There is no doubt I have read more books than you in reference to tolerance and thought.
The only thing that I can describe you with is the word "Hate"
How sad.
How very very sad.
Why do you do this?
I think it is great to be passinate about your beliefs but you are over the top.
jean; May 14, 2008 2:33 PM
Aunt Jean said...: emit he's only been sen. since 2005. Jean; May 14, 2008 2:35 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hi Jean how are you today it's raining here where I live in Texas? By the way I agree with your post Jean; May 14, 2008 2:37 PM
Peter said...: RE Amot
Sorry, I was being a bit sarcastic. Off course Edwards will endorse Obama, they basically ran the same kind of campaign.

I`m not sure if Edwards will endorse today, but he will probably endorse before KY and OR. I also think Edwards endorsing in MI would be a great idea, Obama has been trailing McShame a little bit in MI, but has been gaining lately. A little positive focus on Obama in MI and him endorsing the MI-seating plan and Edwards endorsing Obama in MI, that could mean 4-5 point in the polls (in MI).

I think we will win MI quite easily if Obama campaigns there and we get som positive focus. I think FL and OH will be harder, but not impossible.; May 14, 2008 2:40 PM
dsimon said...: Aunt Jean: Dsimon do you think what you said about DC that it might just have something to do with it having a large AA pop.

No, I'm just pointing out that there are "historical" arguments that don't amount to much when it comes to the general election.

I'm also pointing out the absurdity that primary results have anything to do with the general election. Clinton would win DC easily even though the population is predominantly black and went overwhelmingly for Obama in the primary. And polls have Obama up in NY, CA, and PA against McCain.

States trend differently. WV has been trending Republican by most accounts. But other traditionally Republican states are now in play: CO, ND, perhaps even VA and SC according to the polls. So I think there's very little basis to say that if the Democrats lose in WV, then all is lost.

Heck, Gore lost OH, FL, and WV, and still would have won if he had gotten NH. So would it be nice to have WV too? Yes. Necessary this time? Nope.; May 14, 2008 2:43 PM
jean said...: Hey Aunt Jean,
It is 80 and sunny here in California.
I need to cut the Brownies and deliver them to the bus for the son's last game with the cooler of drinks(my turn). Nice lunch hour.
You have a great day.
Hopefully I will talk to you soon.
jean; May 14, 2008 2:43 PM
Aunt Jean said...: J ean I went back and read your older post I just want to say thank you but you also have class. Jean; May 14, 2008 2:44 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Jean hope so Jean; May 14, 2008 2:45 PM
Amot said...: JPS, thank you for the info and the analysis! Yes, the place is great for Obama to receive a major endorsement! I think DCW will have to make a special thread for Edwards delegates endorsements :)
OOOh, I think Obama iwll endorse MI seating plan too I guess :))

Aunt Jean, you have my support against the newcomers. You maybe a little rude on occasions but I respect your passion! I know that from your point of view several years in office are not enough, but I think he is experienced enough and BTW he has to assemble a good team. No one can run the country alone! Hillary assembled bad team for her campaign and failed, maybe his was a better one. Try to trust the young man for a change, please!; May 14, 2008 2:46 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 2:46 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Jean hope so Jean; May 14, 2008 2:47 PM
Yamaka said...: Good afternoon Democrats:

Still Houston is cloudy!

As of this minute, as per Option 6 of DCW (Left last Box), BHO is leading Total Delegates by 49 and HRC is leading Popular Votes by 29.4K (realclearpolitics.com MI+FL).

The Real Hurdle is 2209.

I predict that next week this time, HRC would have gained a net of atleast 10 more total delegates and more lead on PV.

PR will make things much better for her.

June 3 could be little tricky. Maybe a draw or BHO could get both.

Anyway, still 272 SDs are left undeclared. I am expecting big moves towards HRC very soon!

:-)
________________________________

jp:

I saw your Number Crunching.

I want to punish the Gov of MI and Sen Levin and others who were directly involved in this Debacle. Not all SDs from MI and none from FL (since FL has a GOP Govt).

But, at this site I read long time ago that none of the SDs can be stripped of their votes, because their appointments predate the current punitive Rules. I call it being "grandfathered".

Do you have any information/opinion on this issue?

Cheers. :-); May 14, 2008 2:48 PM
jpsedona said...: Amot,

Also keep in mind that on Sunday's "Face The Nation", Edwars said:

“You can no longer make a compelling case for the math,” Mr. Edwards said, referring to delegate totals that increasingly favor Mr. Obama. “The math is very, very hard for her.”; May 14, 2008 2:48 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Um, Aunt Jean, small correction:

"Illinois State Senate, where he served for eight years. In 2004, he became the third African American since Reconstruction to be elected to the U.S. Senate."

He was elected 3 times. ;o); May 14, 2008 2:49 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Amot thank you and I'l try but I do agree with you.Jean; May 14, 2008 2:51 PM
tmess2 said...: As far as potential new endorsements for Obama, I think you have to consider at least 4 of the 6 from Missouri.

Secretary of State Carnahan -- Two members of her family are Obama delegates -- Congressman Russ Carnahan as an automatic delegate, and former Senator Jean Carnahan as a pledged PLEO.

Chair John Temporiti and Vice-Chair Yolanda Wheat -- Now that the State Convention is over, the need for official neutrality during the selection process is at an end.

State Representative Nadal-Chappell -- Represents a district that Obama carried.

p.s. I had to leave the convention early. Does anyone know how the DNC vote went? I know it doesn't effect this time, but the nominating committee proposed to replace all four of the current DNC members with new folks and the two Clinton supporters from the current DNC members (Doug Brooks and Sandra Query) were nominated from the floor.; May 14, 2008 2:56 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Obama was elected to the Illinois Senate in 1996

Obama was reelected to the Illinois Senate in 1998, and again in 2002

Obama was sworn in as a U.S. Senator on January 4, 2005

SO, basically Obama has been a SENATOR for 12 years.

Obama / Sebelius '08; May 14, 2008 2:58 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

The Dem RBC can pretty much do anything that they want since they can change the rules. This is why even though Rule 20.C.1.a indicates a penalty of 1/2 the pledged delegates and all of the SD's, I suspect that there will be a compromise.

It is possible that MI and/or FL bring the issue to the convention floor but that would be unlikely and extreme. Especially considering that the majority of voters on the floor will be Obama voters if MI & FL are not seated.

The credentials committee cannot change the rules, they can only choose to seat or not seat delegations or individual delegates to the convention (including competing slates of delegates).

I would be shocked if the DNC didn't promote a penalty of some variety to MI at a minimum. But given that MI is penalized, I can't see them not treating the states similarly.; May 14, 2008 3:01 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: I sit corrected.

Obama was elected to public office 4 times - thanks for the correction Leah. I was assuming that IL was two 4 year terms.; May 14, 2008 3:01 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Excuse me Obama has only been in the senate for 8 years look it up. Jean; May 14, 2008 3:04 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey guys be back in a little while got to feed one of my great nephews that is 2. Great little guy!!!!Jean; May 14, 2008 3:06 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Well, to set the record straight, I went to the almighty Wikipedia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barack_Obama

"Obama worked as a community organizer, university lecturer, and lawyer before serving in the Illinois Senate from 1997 to 2004.

Following an unsuccessful bid for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2000, he announced his campaign for U.S. Senate in January 2003. After winning a landslide primary victory in March 2004 to become the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate, Obama delivered the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention in July 2004. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in November 2004 with 70% of the vote."

Aunt Jean - we stand or sit corrected. ;o); May 14, 2008 3:13 PM
Yamaka said...: "Besides, Yam is not a redneck, he is a terrorist."

dave nc:

Good jab, man. Keep trying!

As I said before, if your man BHO jumps the Real Hurdle 2209, I will cheer and blog for him!

I am irritated more by the Sloppy and Horrendously Manipulated Process more than a bleeding Liberal Left wins or the Centrist wins, although I strongly prefer the latter (I am a Friend of Bill).

Do you know that if we had used the GE Methodology HRC has 294 EVs to BHO's 213 (Remember 270 is the Hurdle)? She has already WON!

Why I bring this to your attention is, what we go through now is an artificial motion of things not rooted in REALITY out there in real America.

Our Party Rules of proportional delegation, SDs, add-ons etc are just mind-boggling manipulation removed away from the REALITY of America!

Plus, HRC's demographics is brutally excluded in most of the Caucuses (as many working folks, women and older people shun long protracted Caucus procedures - many of them love confidential voting, which is their Right).

How can this be democratic, if the Process excludes one demographic voters?

Thank God we don't have Caucus and no proportional BS in the GE.

In my mind GE Methodology is the most relevant to the Primary Process.

Cheers. Enjoy your drink!

:-); May 14, 2008 3:20 PM
Amot said...: JPS,
I watched it :)
I just expected him to endorse a little bit later. But I agree that if he endorse in MI and they both support the MI seating proposal that will be huge boost for Obama in MI!; May 14, 2008 3:23 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 3:23 PM
jpsedona said...: In Montana, Bill Clinton made his case for FL. He said

"I never thought it would be the Democratic Party that didn’t want to count votes in Florida. I thought that was a Republican strategy -- or strategery as the case may be. And I just ask you all this, do you really believe Florida would be getting this kind of treatment if the vote had turned out the other way?"

Wow Bill, comparing the DNC to the Republicans seems like a surefire way to win sympathy from the RBC & DNC.

As for "do you really believe Florida would be getting this kind of treatment if the vote had turned out the other way?' ... ummm... yeah Bill. Since it has everything to do with the state and not the candidates, why does he think that the rules are different for Obama?

As a reminder, there was little support for a revote in Florida using caucuses or fire-house primaries; there was also little support for a mail-in primary.

FL screwed up, the DNC screwed up and now the voters & candidates are the ones who will suffer the consequences...; May 14, 2008 3:24 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Emit-

1997 - 2004 = 8 years state senator
(He did not resign until the 'end' of 2004)

January 4, 2005 - present
U.S. Senator = 3+ years

8 + 3(+) = over 11 years

When he becomes President he will have been a senator for 12 years.

We were correct.; May 14, 2008 3:25 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

You've a moment of lucidity with: "Our Party Rules of proportional delegation, SDs, add-ons etc are just mind-boggling manipulation removed away from the REALITY of America!"

You also said: "How can this be democratic, if the Process excludes one demographic voters?"

One of the reasons for the proportional allocations was to ensure fairness. Much the same as engineering congressional districts. The 'dea' was to make sure that demographics ended up being included into the delegates won. So, for example, a congressional district with a high minority population (AA, hispanic, etc.) would have some representation at the convention.

The GE, like the Rep party contests with winner-take-all, tend to minimize minority representation.

When they rework the rules next time (and we all know they will), the SD's will end up as pledged PLEO's; proportional allocations & statewide allocations will probably continue but perhaps with different allocations.; May 14, 2008 3:34 PM
Peter said...: The way Clinton claim to "defend" MI and FL is laughable. MI found a good solution where they used the votes as a basis but also included the fact the Obamas real support in MI wasn`t included in the votes. I think honestly that Obama would have beaten Clinton in MI today. The 69-59 solution was a good idea, it was a solution where both Clinton and Obama backers in MI supported. Who opposed the solution? Obama? NO! Clinton, YES!

Clinton don`t care about the voters in MI or FL, she cares about her chances in the race. If she cared about the voters in MI and FL she would have accepted 69-59.

I think most voters see through Clintons false "protection" of MI and FL, that is why Obama does just as well against McShame in MI polls.; May 14, 2008 3:34 PM
Joshua said...: Aunt Jean, I have read your posts. I have no doubt that you are an aunt and great aunt times 17. You are the exact demographic for HRC: a spinster, no children, no husband, stood up at the altar, never married or may be divorced, angry, illogical, emotional, low education and low IQ; and voting for HRC only because she is a woman and thinking that it is a woman’s turn. The Party and the Country be damned; just put a woman into office.; May 14, 2008 3:37 PM
JayW said...: Aunt Jean and Jean...

So silly...

Cant wait to say "I told you so."

No one wants another 4 years of listening to HRC flip-flop on everything.

Obama 08

DUCK!!!! I think I heard some sniper fire.; May 14, 2008 3:40 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Everyone needs to play nice.
Please read the rules at the top of this page and try to honor them.

Remember that 'to some people' *we* are a reflection of the candidate we support.
I KNOW that is just stupid but apparently that is how some people see it ;); May 14, 2008 3:41 PM
Amot said...: Mike, you stink!
Try to attack on issues not on personal life!; May 14, 2008 3:41 PM
Peter said...: Big endorsement for Obama today at 7pm ET. Anyone betting against it being Edwards?; May 14, 2008 3:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Obama's hidden agenda? Is it
Black Liberation Theology with Rev. Wright as Secretary of Defense?; May 14, 2008 3:42 PM
JayW said...: Mike...

Regarding your comments on Aunt Jean....

PERFECT ANALYSIS!!!!

Could not have been said better.; May 14, 2008 3:43 PM
Yamaka said...: "Wow Bill, comparing the DNC to the Republicans seems like a surefire way to win sympathy from the RBC & DNC."

jp:

Bill IS the most popular and influential Leaders in the Democratic Party, IMO.

Hejust summons our memory to what happened in 2000, when mostly because of FL, Gore lost the GE although he had more Popular Votes (this is also an imagery intended to inflict on the collective conscience of the SDs when we have a dichotomy currently in 2008: BHO with more delegates and HRC with more popular votes, very interesting, indeed).

"FL screwed up, the DNC screwed up and now the voters & candidates are the ones who will suffer the consequences..."

Amen. Well said.; May 14, 2008 3:43 PM
Amot said...: Peter,
If Edwards endorse tonight and than bothe he and Obama endorse MI proposal 59/69, that will help Obama in MI and will get him some red supers; May 14, 2008 3:45 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Listen up all you Hillary supporters:

(CNN) -- Hillary Clinton on Wednesday reiterated her vow to stay in the Democratic presidential race, but she said it would be a "terrible mistake" for her supporters to vote for John McCain over Barack Obama.

"Anybody who has ever voted for me or voted for Barack has much more in common in terms of what we want to see happen in our country and in the world with the other than they do with John McCain," Clinton said on CNN's "The Situation Room."

"I'm going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is -- obviously I'm still hoping to be that nominee, but I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me ... understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama."
________________________

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/clinton/index.html

Your candidate HAS SPOKEN!
If you believe she has good judgment and you want to make her happy then you should listen to her and do the right thing.; May 14, 2008 3:47 PM
Amot said...: JayW,
using two nicks doean't help!
You only stink twice more!; May 14, 2008 3:49 PM
Yamaka said...: "Obama's hidden agenda? Is it
Black Liberation Theology with Rev. Wright as Secretary of Defense?"

Lol.

jim:

I heard the REAL Agenda is Passing the Reparation Bill that John Conyer (MI) is working on for several years!

The idea is America will formally plead guilty for the Crime of Slavery and THEN pay monetary compensation/reparation of several thousand dollars per Black person per year for several years!

Stay tuned. Many 527s will pounce on this very shortly after the Nomination, if he steals it!

To me other than 2209 Hurdle is just stealing/robbery in High Noon!

:-); May 14, 2008 3:50 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm suprised about all the nonsense about seating Florida and Michigan. Its very likely that even if you seat them as is with no compromise, Obama still wins the most pledged deleates. Accept HRC supporters.; May 14, 2008 3:51 PM
Peter said...: He just got one of those supers in MI and got one earlier today. I think Obama supporting 69-59 would be a good idea at this point. 10 delegates is nothing and even though it does reflect Obamas real support in MI it will be good towards healing the party. Announcing support towards the proposal in MI and getting Edwards endorsement and support for the 69-59 solution would be perfect. That way HRC cannot use MI as a campaign trick and it will be easier to get MI-voters behind Obama. It would be a good idea to get Edwards behind 69-59 because Edwards would have gotten som support in MI if they had a real contest.

This could solve the MI problem. Solving FL will probably come in a short time. Getting voters behind Obama in FL will be tougher and will probably take some time and campaigning. But I think Obama will win Florida in the end, but it will take time and perhapes a VP which suits the demographic in FL.; May 14, 2008 3:53 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Independent voter posted on the SD page:

Bob Ficano endorses Obama
__________________________

Daily total so far:

Obama 2 1/2
Clinton 1; May 14, 2008 3:54 PM
Amot said...: Yamaka, that is not all!
Obama is also planning to enslave the whites and sold them in Kenya!

Haven't taken your pills today? You sound more crazy than ever... Maybe that Edwards endorsement is killing you?; May 14, 2008 3:54 PM
Yamaka said...: mike:

You come across very mean spirited and terribly anti-women!

Go get a life!

Look for some Echo Chamber and recite hundred times a minute,

"Ooobamaaaa......Oobasama.....Oommme"

That would help your Candidate!
:-(; May 14, 2008 3:56 PM
Amot said...: Peter, second!; May 14, 2008 3:58 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 4:00 PM
Amot said...: Leah, stop posting that everywhere, thats old news, check the list!

BTW put at teh end of your post a note which leah u r!; May 14, 2008 4:03 PM
Dave in NC said...: Yam,

I find it most curious that you of all people would spout such racist and religion-intolerant rhetoric.

At least Muslims worship the same God as we Christians.

Judging only by your name (which is what you are doing with Obama), I would say that the religion of your heritage is one that worships... what? a stick of incense?.

Do you want to be associated with some pagan religion just because of your name?

I would pray for you, but my stick of incense seems to have gone out.; May 14, 2008 4:19 PM
jpsedona said...: By the way, if Edwards were to endorse Obama in MI, he might also have something to say about: having removed HIS name from the ballot; the uncommitted pledged delegates; the 69-59 plan; the state of the race; appealing to the RBC / DNC to seat MI according to the plan; challenging Hillary to accept the MI plan for the good of the party.; May 14, 2008 4:20 PM
Peter said...: If Edwards is the "major" who is endorsing Obama today, will it mean that Obama "gets" Edwards-delegates? Probably. From what i can see, that would probably mean Obama getting most or all of the delegates from Edwards, which is 19 without FL and MI and 51 with.

From what I can see it would mean Obama accepting to seat MI with 69-59 and FL "as it is"?
If Obama gets those 19 delegates, he would be 6 from winning the pledged delegate count.

It will be interesting to see what happens!!; May 14, 2008 4:22 PM
jpsedona said...: Dave,

Whatever Yam's personal beliefs, he certainly believes in miracles...; May 14, 2008 4:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave in NC
See you are back but not ready for discourse to explain the ghost posting in your name.
I got your lunch menu ready to post.; May 14, 2008 4:23 PM
Yamaka said...: Edwards could very well endorse the fellow Bleeding FAR LEFT Liberal - I have been waiting for this for a long time, even at the NC Primary!

I wonder why is he hesitating?

He said he voted for BHO. So why is the delay?

No one really cares about Ed after that "$400 hair cut"!

A multi-millionaire - with expensive hair cut - demagoguing about poor people and their hard life!

:-(; May 14, 2008 4:26 PM
jpsedona said...: Time is reporting...

"Radio silence from six senior Obama officials when asked directly by The Page: 'Is John Edwards endorsing Barack Obama today?'"; May 14, 2008 4:26 PM
Yamaka said...: dave, nc:

Didn't you guess that most people in the blogs use Pen Names for confidentiality?

I know you are a very smart man!

Haha....ha.ha.

In Dreams, BHO writes,

" In Indonesia, I had spent two years at a Muslim school.. I studied the Koran"

In Audacity, he also writes,

"Lolo (his step-father) followed a brand of Islam..I looked to Lolo for guidance".

They are just words....words don't mean a thing in BHO's world!

Enjoy you RUM.

:-); May 14, 2008 4:34 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 4:35 PM
Dave in NC said...: jp,

I would say he believes in nightmares.

:); May 14, 2008 4:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave in NC said...
Jim,

Good to be back my friend! I trust you have already gone golfing and turned your Google account over to your 12 year old grandson because that is the speed of your recent comments.

If not, then my other fear is confirmed: that you are the only person with a damp, dark, windowless basement in your mobile home.

Where you sit in your soiled underwear dismembering bodies and putting the pieces in mason jars to store on shelves made of cinder blocks and old used lumber.

Beware, the damp will ruin your keyboard as will that tobacco juice dripping out of your mouth... that is tobacco juice, right?

Though you refer to golf, I believe the only club you are familiar with is made entirely of wood and rests on your shoulder.

Regardless of what the Geico commercials may suggest, you won't get into a golf establishment looking like that!

But my question to you is this... seriously, after a hard day of thumping women, do you like to relax and hang out at a Cro-bar?

or, after a long hard winter, do you like to get warm and neanderTHAW?

:)

Peace my friend, and love (but not with minors); May 14, 2008 4:38 PM
Amot said...: My apologies than :)
But I remember she used to post some old news on the super page and I misspoke ;)
22 min to go ;))); May 14, 2008 4:38 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Amot-

This is ME ;)
I have not seen that other 'Leah' since a few days ago on the SD page. Either she/he changed their name or is just out there lurking - who knows.

Signed,
The 'old' Leah; May 14, 2008 4:38 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: What's the matter Yam, afraid to print the whole text. Wrap parts of two sentences in quotes adn put a couple .. in there to replace the deleted sentences.

You could get a job on CNN with those talents. ;o); May 14, 2008 4:39 PM
Peter said...: Re Yamaka

You must be preatty naive? If Edwards endorse Obama today it would mean the race is 100% over. Edwards have 19 pledged delegates and 32 in Florida. Obama has been in contact with the delegates in SC but they said they would wait until Edwards said what they should do. If Edwards endorse Obama what do you think will happen with those delegates?
If Obama gets 19 delegates he will lead Hillary by almost 200 delegates. he will be 5 short of winning the pledged delegates and will need a little more than 120 delegates to get to 2025.
The 32 Fl-delegates will also make the road to the bogus 2210 quite easy since Obama will get almost the same amount of delegates from FL as HRC. So, Yamaka, Edwards is important and I think you know that pretty well.; May 14, 2008 4:40 PM
Richard said...: Who is the last democrat that won the white house without winning WV ?

Ah, the utter ignorance of arguing causation from correlation! I've worn my Yankee's cap to the Stadium every time they've won; if I forget to wear it next time, does that mean they'll lose?; May 14, 2008 4:40 PM
Dave in NC said...: Jim,

I am "dave in nc". The comments under just "dave" are not mine.

Could it be that 2 people take issue with your comments?; May 14, 2008 4:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave copy and pasted from 12:26 pm today: Not posted by just Dave

Dave in NC said...
Jim,

Good to be back my friend! I trust you have already gone golfing and turned your Google account over to your 12 year old grandson because that is the speed of your recent comments.

If not, then my other fear is confirmed: that you are the only person with a damp, dark, windowless basement in your mobile home.

Where you sit in your soiled underwear dismembering bodies and putting the pieces in mason jars to store on shelves made of cinder blocks and old used lumber.

Beware, the damp will ruin your keyboard as will that tobacco juice dripping out of your mouth... that is tobacco juice, right?

Though you refer to golf, I believe the only club you are familiar with is made entirely of wood and rests on your shoulder.

Regardless of what the Geico commercials may suggest, you won't get into a golf establishment looking like that!

But my question to you is this... seriously, after a hard day of thumping women, do you like to relax and hang out at a Cro-bar?

or, after a long hard winter, do you like to get warm and neanderTHAW?

:)

Peace my friend, and love (but not with minors); May 14, 2008 4:46 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Amot-

22 mins to go for what?
What's going to happen???

< giggle >; May 14, 2008 4:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Dave in NC said...
Jim,

"I am "dave in nc". The comments under just "dave" are not mine.

Could it be that 2 people take issue with your comments?"

Could you be split personality?; May 14, 2008 4:49 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike you are so sick. That gave me a big laugh you are so funny with your delusions. I would say that I will pray but I do believe that you are a lost cause poor thing LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL . Jean; May 14, 2008 4:51 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim-

Who the heck even knows who is who anymore --- I think that this waiting around for SD endorsements has ALL of us a bit crazy ;); May 14, 2008 4:52 PM
Amot said...: The link a thepage was removed...
Maybe Edwards will not endorse after all?; May 14, 2008 4:57 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah their is a hugh difference between a state senator and a US senator. Why you would put them together is beyond me. Jean; May 14, 2008 4:57 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: What a wonderful day it is today in 'my' world. We had a nice rain last night and also this afternoon and my garden is growing like crazy. Spring here came really early this year and my grapes are as big as marbles, my lemons are the size of golf balls, and there are so many figs on the trees that it would take all day to count them!

And to top it off so far today 4 SDs have come out for Obama and hopefully Edwards will endorse in two more hours!

La Vita e` Bella!
(Life is Beautiful!); May 14, 2008 4:59 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Class Act on Fund Raising:

Obama's Website now has link to donate to the disaster relief through the Red Cross!

Well Done!; May 14, 2008 4:59 PM
Anonymous said...: leah,
don't pay much attention to SD count. All they are doing is announcing their preferance.
I will pay attention to them in Denver when their vote will count.
Until then, our endorsement counts just as much as theirs; May 14, 2008 5:00 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: "Leah their is a hugh difference between a state senator and a US senator. Why you would put them together is beyond me. Jean"

_____________

Sure there is a difference between 'state' and 'U.S.' - but the 'fact' is a SENATOR is a SENATOR no matter how you try to slice and dice it.

Why you would try to diminish Senator Obama's resume is beyond me.; May 14, 2008 5:04 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: To all Hillary Supporters:

(CNN) -- Hillary Clinton on Wednesday reiterated her vow to stay in the Democratic presidential race, but she said it would be a "terrible mistake" for her supporters to vote for John McCain over Barack Obama.

"Anybody who has ever voted for me or voted for Barack has much more in common in terms of what we want to see happen in our country and in the world with the other than they do with John McCain," Clinton said on CNN's "The Situation Room."

"I'm going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is -- obviously I'm still hoping to be that nominee, but I'm going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me ... understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama."
________________________

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/clinton/index.html

Your candidate HAS SPOKEN!
If you believe she has good judgment and you want to make her happy then you should listen to her and do the right thing in November.; May 14, 2008 5:07 PM
Amot said...: UFFFF!
I hate this time zones :)
7PM is after 2 hours :)
But about about Edwards, why this silence?; May 14, 2008 5:08 PM
Unknown said...: New SuperDelegate Endorsement:
Ficano of MI endorses Obama.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080514/NEWS02/80514062; May 14, 2008 5:10 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Amot-

Here is another link for you:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/14/john-edwards-endorsing-ob_n_101749.html

There are several around the internet - I think it IS going to happen, we just need to wait 2 more hours.; May 14, 2008 5:11 PM
alperovitz said...: huffington post now reporting on edwards rumor as well as the atlantic tracking a lear jet from NC to grand rapids.; May 14, 2008 5:11 PM
Amot said...: Leah, and all others
Grand Rapids rally is moved to 6.30PM - 90 more minutes to go!; May 14, 2008 5:13 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I've never said that he didn't have some experience he just doesn't have as much as Hillary but of course she has a few years over him. Jean; May 14, 2008 5:14 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: David-

How strange that they are tracking a jet.

I thought someone said early today that John Edwards was already in Michigan.

Maybe Elizabeth is flying in too! :)

*** Or someone is playing a big joke on us ;(; May 14, 2008 5:16 PM
alperovitz said...: plane to land in 28 minutes!!; May 14, 2008 5:16 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Breaking News------

EDWARDS TO ENDORSE OBAMA

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/edwards-to-endo.html

.; May 14, 2008 5:17 PM
Peter said...: Cnn confirms: It is Edwards. If Edwards "gives" his delegates to Obama it will be over. That makes a deal regarding FL and MI easier for Obama and Clinton loses her last chance and argument.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/14/obama-to-make-major-announcement/; May 14, 2008 5:17 PM
Peter said...: The question is if Edwards will join Obama-team as a VP or something else?
But anyway, this race is over. Barack Obama is the nominee.; May 14, 2008 5:22 PM
Amot said...: Peter,
unfortunately Edwards can't 'give' delegates but he can 'advise' them to vote Obama :))
And all that following the 'big' victory!
BTW what Hillary said this morning was really decent!; May 14, 2008 5:25 PM
Independent Voter said...: I saw this on another blog, and I think it is worth reading....especially my fellow Obama supporters.

We need to give Clinton’s supporters a little time to mourn her loss before we engage them. We cannot and should not expect them to jump on board the O-Train the moment the nomination is settled. They are going to go through the same stages of mourning that anyone goes through who has lost a loved one – denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance – and until they get to the last one, they are not going to be interested in being accosted by us trying to get them to unite around Obama.

If we give them their space, then most of them will eventually come around, regardless of what the silly polls say about how many of them claim they won’t vote for Obama if Clinton loses. Believe me, when the reality sinks in, the numbers will change.

However, approaching them too soon won’t make the numbers change sooner. Instead, it has the potential to solidify their opposition to Obama and their decision not to vote for him in November.

In short, if we don’t give the Clinton supporters time and space to mourn, it will hurt Obama.; May 14, 2008 5:26 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: David-

re: the jet tracking
I remember when I was a little girl at Christmas time they had tracking of Santa's sleigh on Christmas Eve... this is so exciting today!

Santa Edwards ;); May 14, 2008 5:26 PM
Unknown said...: Wayne County Executive Bob Ficano is firmly in Barack Obama's camp.

He made the announcement of his endorsement today following a discussion with Obama before a town hall meeting in Sterling Heights. Ficano is one of the state's 29 superdelegates and becomes the fourth to officially throw his support behind Obama.

Last week, Ficano said he was leaning towards supporting Obama and after today's discussion was convinced the Illinois senator has the best of intentions to help the domestic auto industry.

"I asked Sen. Obama to work toward a level playing field with the automotive industry to make sure that it is competitive with foreign automobile manufacturers," said Ficano.

Obama said he was proud to have Ficano's support.; May 14, 2008 5:26 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Live streaming on www.CNN.com

CNN has a video link up now about the announcement. Top right side of the page.

They should also have a live streaming link for the rally too.; May 14, 2008 5:30 PM
Unknown said...: Leah:

I don't care what Hillary is forced to say about voting for Obama. She has to say to her supporters to vote for Obama.

I will never vote for Obama.

If Hillary is the nominee, I will vote for her. If Obama is the nominee, I will vote for McCain.

I also will never vote for anyone who supports/endorses Obama in the primaries. My senator and congressman have endorsed Obama even though my state and congressional district went for Hillary. Neither will ever receive my vote in the future.; May 14, 2008 5:34 PM
Peter said...: I know, thats why i used "". He can`t give, but he can advice and I think his advice counts as "give".

A lot of the former Edwards voters and backers are now supporting Obama, so i think more or less all thos delegates will go to Obama.

The nice thing about this is that it will be much easier to seat MI and FL. We should all unite around our nominee Barack Obama.; May 14, 2008 5:35 PM
Unknown said...: Edwards backs Obama

By CHUCK BABINGTON – 14 minutes ago

DEARBORN, Mich. (AP) — Democrat John Edwards has given his long-awaited endorsement to Barack Obama.

It's a major boost from a former presidential rival as Obama tries to shrug off Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is determined to press ahead.

Edwards was to appear with Obama in Grand Rapids, Mich., as Obama campaigns in a critical general election battleground.; May 14, 2008 5:36 PM
Hippolytus said...: What Cabinet post do you think will most suit Edwards in an Obama Administration?; May 14, 2008 5:38 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Lee said: "I don't care what Hillary is forced to say about voting for Obama. She has to say to her supporters to vote for Obama."
_____________________

FORCED to say???
You mean you think that she is being 'controlled' by someone. Hmmm... if she is not able to do what she wants or say what she wants = then what do you think it would be like if she was president?

I want a president that can make their own decisions and not be 'forced' to say anything they don't want to say!

OBAMA '08; May 14, 2008 5:39 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

As I said earlier, I expect the Bleeding Liberal $400 hair-cut demagogue WILL endorse BHO.

I also predict that about 16 delegates would go to BHO and the rest to HRC.

Now officially BHO joins, Kerry, Edwards, Kennedy, McGovern, Carter and their ilk to belong to the Pantheon of Long Gone and Dead!

Who needs TAX and SPEND liberals to be the Custodian of our 2.8 Trillion Dollar Treasury.

Wait and See. Tears would role into the pathetic cheeks of demagogues!

American Electorate is largely at the Center, NOT at the FAR LEFT.

SDs, will you please listen for once in your short lives!

:-); May 14, 2008 5:41 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: CNN just said that Obama will come out in 30 to 35 minutes at the rally.

Not long to wait now!!!

CNN has a live streaming link up.; May 14, 2008 5:42 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey obama supporters have you heard which I'm sure you have they are saying on CNN that Edwaerds will endorse Obama that would be a big coo for him of course I do believe that it's kind of shitty but my own thought! Jean; May 14, 2008 5:42 PM
Independent Voter said...: hipp,

I think he would make an excellent AG (Attorney General).; May 14, 2008 5:42 PM
RobH said...: Hippo,

I've seen it written he's interested in Supreme Court.; May 14, 2008 5:43 PM
Unknown said...: Leah:

Don't be stupid.

Of course, Hillary has to endorse Obama if he is the nominee. If she didn't endorse him, then when he loses in November (and he will), she will be blamed for it which will hurt her chances in 2012.; May 14, 2008 5:47 PM
Hippolytus said...: I guess I can see him as an AG in the crusader mode, but I wonder how good an administrator he would be. The Justice Dept is in desperate need of rebuilding after the last eight years; maybe he would be able to build some espirit de corps, to go along with his image as a gladiator. I hope so. It is truly sad to think of what the Justice Dept has become.; May 14, 2008 5:48 PM
Independent Voter said...: Hello Aunt Jean,

Ya, I'm sure that most of us have heard it and are following it.

Why would you say that it is shitty? I personally would have congratulated Senator Clinton if she got his endorsement. Would I be disappointed? Of course, but to call it shitty? No. You and I both like and agree with Edwards on most issues (this is just one that you disagree and I agree with).

I think Edwards has been leaning toward Obama for a VERY long time now, but didn't want to be disrespectful to Senator Clinton. In fact, had he come out earlier, chances are Obama would already have the pledged delegate majority. The reason I say this is because Edwards' delegates worked VERY hard to hold onto his delegates in IOWA, etc. Had he come out earlier most if not all of them would have likely gone to Obama.; May 14, 2008 5:49 PM
RobH said...: Hey Leah, regarding Lee's comments "forced to say":

I'm surprised that you're surprised by the narrative. You must have recognized the pattern by now. If it doesn't go for their candidate, then there's a fix in somehow, or there's mysterious forces at work, or it's a backstab.

Tonight's going to be a good night. The math I worked for you on Tuesday night will now accelerate. I had ultimately gotten to 'about 10 SD short on 5/20, and wrapped by 6/3', it could be sooner depending on the disposition of the Edwards 19.

I'll stay with what I said weeks ago, it's mathematically clinched, no if's and's or but's, by 6/3 with MT and SD doing the dirty deed. Edwards as Kingmaker, but not at the convention, rather on 6/4? Well, maybe I underestimated...; May 14, 2008 5:50 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: A point of clarification:

The person who is 'signing' their posts with the blogger name of "Mike" is not me.

I am Mike in Maryland. I don't know who that other "Mike" is, where he lives, or his political philosophy.

This is my first post of the day since early this morning, where I discussed with joni/Woodland Sprite my reasons for supporting Senator Obama, and a few minutes later I discussed some genealogy with Ed.

Mike; May 14, 2008 5:50 PM
Independent Voter said...: Robh,

One of the problems with that is he would need to be appointed to a judgeship first (to be a SC Justice) - not saying it would be required, but chances are the Senate wouldn't confirm him to SCOTUS. - Just my thought.; May 14, 2008 5:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Edwards carries no real credibility
and few delegates who will follow
him.
I was upset when he folded his tent and gave up without a fight.
I put him in the very dubious group of "Losers For Obama"; May 14, 2008 5:53 PM
RobH said...: "SDs, will you please listen for once in your short lives!"

Yes, Yam, they are absolutely listening to you, because you are so very influential. And they are considering your arguments and choosing otherwise.

Soon it will be you, and the Maestro, and the Million Dollar Gal, alone.

You may want to get ready to put your bike on e-bay.; May 14, 2008 5:56 PM
Hippolytus said...: RobH said...

I've seen it written he's [Edwards] interested in Supreme Court.
Edwards would be a great choice! An excellent counter balance to Roberts. I have to believe his confirmation would be difficult to block!; May 14, 2008 5:57 PM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

"Edwards carries no real credibility and few delegates who will follow him."

Uh huh... and the SD endorsements don't count either? OK, and if Hillary eventually says she's dropping out, it's not really over either is it?; May 14, 2008 5:57 PM
Yamaka said...: "I put him in the very dubious group of "Losers For Obama"

jim:

Amen Well Said.

He couldn't win in SC his birthplace! What kind of a "popular appeal" has he got?

Ziltch, Nah, Natta. Nahi..; May 14, 2008 5:57 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 14, 2008 5:57 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hi Dave [independent voter] how are you. I like you and I agree with you that given time there will be some Hillary supporters that will turn to Obama and vote for him. But not all I have a feeling that there are going to be still a lot of Hillary supporters who will believe that Obama stole the race with: The medias help,and playing the race card.I really don't believe you or the other Obama supporter understand the anger that once again the race was stolen and we will have enough 4 years with a republican in the white house.Nov. is a long time for a person to stew and it can make them more determmine. Jean; May 14, 2008 5:59 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

You should consider throwing a pool party for hillary to help raise her some money.; May 14, 2008 5:59 PM
Aunt Jean said...: I just read enough post enough person that Obama will owe how sickening. Jean; May 14, 2008 6:01 PM
RobH said...: "I put him in the very dubious group of 'Losers For Obama'"

Yes, the group that contains the absolute majority of all Democrat elected office holder SD's (govs, sens, reps) and significant former Clinton supporters of great stature who have made a personally difficult choice, considered the consequences for retribution from the house of Clinton, and done the brave thing anyway.

Yes, they're the 'Losers', but you've got a handle on the winner.; May 14, 2008 6:02 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

"He couldn't win in SC his birthplace! What kind of a "popular appeal" has he got?"

Hillary was born in Chicago and couldn't even win her home town, let alone the state of her biorthplace.; May 14, 2008 6:03 PM
Martin said...: Crazy Aunt Jean said: "But not all I have a feeling that there are going to be still a lot of Hillary supporters who will believe that Obama stole the race with: The medias help,and playing the race card."

OBAMA playing the race card? Are you &%#*&#% kidding me? It's Bill & Hillary who have been playing the race card. Provide some examples at least. I have the feeling that in your mind, his simply being black is enough to qualify as "playing the race card".; May 14, 2008 6:04 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave this is going on until the last primary he should have waited I guess Obama promised him something. I don't like Edwards anymore because he can be bought. Jean; May 14, 2008 6:04 PM
Aunt Jean said...: I just lost all respect for him. Jean; May 14, 2008 6:05 PM
Hippolytus said...: Aunt Jean,
On what possible basis do you contend that Obama stole this race? Are you threatening to pick up your marbles and go home? SNL got Hillary dead on... she's a sore loser, who will do anything to kneecap her fellow Democrat. She'll have blood on her hands if Obama loses the general.; May 14, 2008 6:07 PM
RobH said...: Jean:

"once again the race was stolen and we will have enough 4 years with a republican in the white house"

Well, yeah, if you vote for him in retribution, we will.

How about you vote for the guy who has the exact same positions as Hillary, instead of the guy who you would then complain about that we'd have .... another..... four .....years .....of . since you'd help put him there.

PS I read your reply to my post earlier of concern for your getting too wound up. Ultimately, you know what's best for you, but I noticed you were much more pleasant after you returnde from feeding your 2yr old nephew. Cheers.; May 14, 2008 6:08 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

you said: "I just lost all respect for him. Jean"

This is how many people feel about Hillary and how many people felt after Bill's comments in SC.; May 14, 2008 6:08 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
. . . their is a hugh difference between a state senator and a US senator.

Aunt Jean,

Would you agree that there is a huge difference between a US Congressman and a US Senator?

Do you think that Abraham Lincoln did not make an historical impression on the US?

Abraham Lincoln was a delegate in the Illinois House for eight years. He was a US Congressman for two years. He lost his reelection bid because he did not vote to authorize the US entry into the war with Mexico.

Ten years later, he lost his bid to be elected to the US Senate (remember the Lnicoln/Douglas debates?)

In 1860, he was nominated by the Republican Party to be the party's candidate for president.

In that election, he received less than 40% of the popular vote (which was more votes that any other single candidate, though). However, because he won 180 of the 303 Electoral College votes, he won the election.

President Buchanan, who won the 1856 Presidential election, had the following resumé:

State representative - 6 years
US Congressman - 10 years
Ambassador to Russia - 3 years
United States Senator - 10 years
Secretary of State - 4 years
Minister to Britain - 3 years

That's 36 years in government service, or experience. How high on the list of great Presidents is Buchanan? Not very.

So let's put the experience argument to bed, why don't we? After all, if experience is the only requirement, Buchanan would be, hands down, near or at the top of the list, wouldn't he?

Mike; May 14, 2008 6:10 PM
RobH said...: Hey Leah,

There it is again. That narrative that I wrote of regarding the 'real' reason an intelligent, successful, reasoning public servant would switch sides...

"I guess Obama promised him something. I don't like Edwards anymore because he can be bought."; May 14, 2008 6:11 PM
jpsedona said...: Btw, Elizabeth Edwards did not travel to MI for the endorsement of Obama.; May 14, 2008 6:13 PM
Hippolytus said...: jpsedona said...

"Yam,

You should consider throwing a pool party for hillary to help raise her some money."

I'll bring the cinder block!; May 14, 2008 6:13 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Martin you are a foolish man leave me alone I don't talk to people like you with so little brain matter. I'm not so mean that I can't say good job to Obama though.I'm not going to argue with you because you know just like I know that he DID play the race card.There is one thing that I have learnt in my life the way people treat AA and women. They treat them like they are scared to death of offending them where they have treated wemon like crap. So having any woman vote for him is very offensive for me not because he's part black but because she's a woman and he's a man.Plus she has so much more experience Jean; May 14, 2008 6:13 PM
jpsedona said...: So, who wins the evening news cylce? One day after handing Obama a butt kicking, his campaign rolls out Edwards in MICHIGAN to capture the momentum right after WV. The Obama campaign's timing on this stuff is perfect.; May 14, 2008 6:15 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: " Dave this is going on until the last primary he should have waited I guess Obama promised him something. I don't like Edwards anymore because he can be bought."
_____________________

Aunt Jean if you think that the Clintons haven't bought and owed people and have done under the table deals in their YEARS of their political career then you are more naive than I thought.

We are talking POLITICS.; May 14, 2008 6:15 PM
Anonymous said...: I will likely end up in the very dubious group of 'Losers For Obama'" after the GE. Regretably
so.
If he gets the nomination I will vote for him, but I believe he will not carry the day.
I thought Gore would win and didn't really think Kerry would and I voted for both.
It is still possible for Clinton and I will stay with her till the "Fat Delegate Sings"; May 14, 2008 6:18 PM
jpsedona said...: IF... Edwards has spoken with all of the Edwards' delegates, might he announce that not only is he endorsing Obama but that x of y delegates are commiting their support to Obama?

That would be an interesting twist.; May 14, 2008 6:18 PM
alperovitz said...: Leah,
sorry to take so long to reply. i'm jewish so the santa reference is difficult to relate too but my excitement is palpable -- a great day!!!
-david; May 14, 2008 6:18 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I'm sure they have [the clintons] but they didn't have to buy the race like obama. Jean; May 14, 2008 6:19 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: ipsedona the reason that Edwards wife didn't go with him is because she voted for Hillary and will not back Obama. Wonder how much trouble it will cause in the Edwards home I would leave his ass.Obama has to make such a big deal out of this what a jerk."
___________________

Aunt Jean,

Now that is crazy - you think Elizabeth should leave John because of how he votes... but you think Hillary should STAY with Bill after HE had SEX with other women and SEX with Monica IN THE WHITE HOUSE!

I am glad that your values ARE NOT the same as mine!; May 14, 2008 6:20 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Clinton DEFENDS Obama Against Hamas Smear

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/14/obama-hamas-smear-clinton_n_101759.html

.; May 14, 2008 6:23 PM

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