Wednesday, August 27, 2008

And we might have an upset in Alaska

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

The returns are mostly in from yesterday's Alaska primary. For the statewide races, 76.3% of the precincts have reported, as of 5 a.m. Eastern time. Numbers courtesy of the state.

Ted Stevens, the indicted longest-serving-Republican-Senator will be campaigning while preparing for his September trial in D.C. having captured 63.4% of the vote, or 57,060 votes.

On the Democratic side, Mark Begich captured 84.8% of the vote, or 51,479.

Here's the fun part: there are 476,472 registered voters in Alaska. That means turnout wasn't very high. As an aside, in June, the state reported approximately 120,000 registered Republicans, 72,000 registered Democrats, and almost 179,000 unaffiliated voters. There's a reason Mark Begich is up 13 points in the polls.

Now, in the House race, it appears that Don Young might have lost his seat. Again, 76.3% reporting, and Sean Parnell is ahead 41,268 to Don's 40,901, or 45.6% to 45.2%. This would be a real upset. If this happens, it means I was wrong when I wrote that whichever Democrat won, he would be running against Don Young. Despite the potential indictment (BANNER YEAR!) it seemed pretty solid. If you missed that post, though, you might want to check out the Young memo to staff.

On the Republican Democratic side, it will definitely be Ethan Berkowitz, with 55.5% of the vote.

I'll have updates and details on Ted in Sunday with the Senators, and will let you know what happens with the House vote once Alaska certifies the results.

As for the other primaries yesterday, there were no statewide run-offs in Oklahoma, and nothing earth-shattering happened in the Florida primaries, since not all the districts were contested. Full Florida results here.

Update: With 97% of the vote tallied, Young has retaken the lead, 45.32% to 45.48%, a difference of 145 votes out of about 85,000. There are still some votes to be tallied, and I don't know if there will be a recount.