Wednesday, August 27, 2008

And we might have an upset in Alaska

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

The returns are mostly in from yesterday's Alaska primary. For the statewide races, 76.3% of the precincts have reported, as of 5 a.m. Eastern time. Numbers courtesy of the state.

Ted Stevens, the indicted longest-serving-Republican-Senator will be campaigning while preparing for his September trial in D.C. having captured 63.4% of the vote, or 57,060 votes.

On the Democratic side, Mark Begich captured 84.8% of the vote, or 51,479.

Here's the fun part: there are 476,472 registered voters in Alaska. That means turnout wasn't very high. As an aside, in June, the state reported approximately 120,000 registered Republicans, 72,000 registered Democrats, and almost 179,000 unaffiliated voters. There's a reason Mark Begich is up 13 points in the polls.

Now, in the House race, it appears that Don Young might have lost his seat. Again, 76.3% reporting, and Sean Parnell is ahead 41,268 to Don's 40,901, or 45.6% to 45.2%. This would be a real upset. If this happens, it means I was wrong when I wrote that whichever Democrat won, he would be running against Don Young. Despite the potential indictment (BANNER YEAR!) it seemed pretty solid. If you missed that post, though, you might want to check out the Young memo to staff.

On the Republican Democratic side, it will definitely be Ethan Berkowitz, with 55.5% of the vote.

I'll have updates and details on Ted in Sunday with the Senators, and will let you know what happens with the House vote once Alaska certifies the results.

As for the other primaries yesterday, there were no statewide run-offs in Oklahoma, and nothing earth-shattering happened in the Florida primaries, since not all the districts were contested. Full Florida results here.

Update: With 97% of the vote tallied, Young has retaken the lead, 45.32% to 45.48%, a difference of 145 votes out of about 85,000. There are still some votes to be tallied, and I don't know if there will be a recount.


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From Dailykos:

From the Anchorage Daily News' election blog:

A small but vocal group of six Stevens supporters stood outside with signs, chanting "four more years!"
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A senate term is 6 years, so they must think it will take 4 years to get his sorry ass thrown in jail :)
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"On the Republican side, it will definitely be Ethan Berkowitz, with 55.5% of the vote."

um - Ethan is a Democrat.
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2 replies · active less than 1 minute ago
fixed, thanks.
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Thanks Matt, it's what I get for typing while asleep....
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Apparently they've received 7,600 absentee ballots in the Young-Parnell race and it's unclear how many have been counted. I'm hoping Young wins - it'll be much easier to knock off a congressman with a long record of corruption than Parnell, who, like many in his state, is very fiscally conservative and had the backing of still very popular (even after her recent scandal, her approval rating has been in the 80s) governor Sarah Palin.
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According to Alaska law, a losing candidate or 10 voters can request a recount. If the margin is less than 0.5%, there's no deposit required.
http://ltgov.state.ak.us/media2004/5_4.pdf
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