Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Democrats win MS-1 Special Election

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Completing an amazing trifecta of Special Elections in long-held GOP seats this spring, Democrat Travis Childers has won the Special Election in MS-1, defeating Republican Greg Davis (53-47 at this writing).

Following the wins of Bill Foster in IL-14 and Don Cazayoux in LA-6, and each district being more progressively Republican, Childer's win is going to send shock waves throughout the political community. This district has a Partisan Voter Index (PV) of R+10, meaning on average it votes 10% more Republican than the nation as a whole. If every district with a PV of R+10 was in play in November, that's 50 seats the GOP will have problems defending.

Oh, and yes, Childers becomes the 796th superdelegate, pushing the total number of delegates to 4049, and the number of delegates needed to win is now 2,025. See Superdelegate Ups and Downs for the complete history of the changes in the number of superdelegates. Childers is Uncommitted at this time.

Update: Josh Marshall notes the number symbolism that the GOP House caucus is now at 199.

Update 2: Swing State Project reminds us: Bush won this district 62-37, by 25 points! Districts like this are just not supposed to switch. An incredible win for the Democrats.


David Jarvis said...

Excellent work folks! We don't have to let the South go anymore!

Jeff in CA said...

And Donna Edwards, who is a lock to win the special election in MD-4 on June 17, will make it 797 superdelegates.

Don said...

54%-46%... not even close. If this is really an R+10 district, an electoral tsunami is coming in November. Newt knows.

coop said...

YES! Two more Superdelegates for Obama! :)


edgeways said...

One of those SDs is a Michagander (Lauren Wolfe) so her vote won't count unless there is a MI compromise.

the other, Awais Khaleel, should be good though.

Amot said...

Great news! One more Dem in the House!!!

Tatarize said...

Childers won 12 points in a 10 point Republican district. Doesn't that mean 22 point PVI+R are in play? Mississippi here we come... oh wait, this was Mississippi.

Tatarize said...

8 & 18,

To think I have a math related degree.