Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

What is McCain's latest "senior moment", what does Obama need to do to win in November or whatever else is on your mind.

And please be excellent to one another. We do not accept name calling or any attacks on our commenters. Any objectionable comments will be deleted. Try to be civil.

Thanks!

Previous Open Thread is here

9481 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   3001 – 3200 of 9481   Newer›   Newest»
Aunt Jean said...

Dave

I knew what he meant. I really wasn't serious when I said that he could come up with a more proper word. Did you not read my next post. AJ

Independent Voter said...

MUG - ROFLMAO

Independent Voter said...

AJ, sorry, I hadn't seen your follow-up comment.

LOL!

Aunt Jean said...

Mug

you're terrible. LOL AJ

Aunt Jean said...

Dave

my fault I shouldn't have sounded so serious. AJ

Dilbuck said...

Protecting polar bears gets in way of drilling for oil, says governor

[link to www.timesonline.co.uk]


May 23, 2008

The polar bear should be removed from the endangered species list because its protected status will hamper drilling for oil and gas in Alaska, the state's Republican Governor has demanded.





WOW. Good pick!

Dilbuck said...

Don't feed the troll.

Aunt Jean said...

hey everyone

her name in high school was barrcuda. AJ

Dilbuck said...

Palin's highest degree of education is a BA in journalism from the University of Idaho. That means that starting next week Tuesday when I begin grad school, I will have more of an education than a vice presidential nominee. That is eery.

Dilbuck said...

"Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. Governor Palin shares John McCain’s commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush’s failed economic policies — that’s not the change we need, it’s just more of the same," said Bill Burton, Obama Campaign Spokesman.


Beautiful. Attack policy not the candidate.

Joshua said...

As far as I am concerned, vagina is an anatomical word and proper to use in that context. It is a word I would use as easily as “shoulder” when that is the part of the body to which I am referring.

Richard said...

Prediction: rapid makeover for Sarah Palin, including a new hairdo and contacts. It's a shame that only women are subjected to this kind of remaking, but it's reality.

As for the pick, I don't think she will have a particularly large effect on the election (VPs never do). We shall see.

Richard said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kujo said...

Aunt Jean,


On your 12:32 PM comment

well said

Kujo said...

This pick of Palin baffles me. Did McCain have any advisors providing any information about the qualifications of a candidate, about the attack plan that has worked for the past month on Obama and how not to affect that, on what the reasons why people supported Hillery, on what the mood on energy is in the country, on what we need on foriegn policy experience in this country?

I can understand now why Republicans could not understand the Biden pick. They feel that if you pick someone really unqualified, then it makes your candidate more qualified.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Unbelievable!!!

McCain IS an idiot. The Hillary supporters supported Hillary because she is HILLARY - pantsuits are NOT interchangeable!

Apparently McCain thinks that all women are the same. Palin is not qualified to step into the commander in chief role. This is an insult to women of America! When a woman becomes vice-president or president it will be because of her resume, experience foreign and domestic, and character - not because of her gender!

Obama-Biden '08

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Sarah Palin YOU are NO Hillary Clinton!

Leah Texas4Obama said...

The VP Choice that Lost the Presidency for McCain

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/linda-bergthold/the-vp-choice-that-lost-t_b_122381.html


.

apissedant said...

They can't take off the glasses or change her hairdo. Right now she looks pretty, but she also looks like she may have a brain in her head. Change the hair and remove the glasses... everyone will be able to see right through her empty head.

Her speech was terrible. She made Mark Warner's delivery look good. =)

Beryl said...

"Sarah Palin YOU are NO Hillary Clinton! "

I HOPE Biden uses this line!

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Sarah Palin: Former Beauty Queen, Current VP Candidate (PHOTOS)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/29/sarah-palin-former-beauty_n_122400.html

FORMER BEAUTY QUEEN!!!

Hey McCain we are voting for President and Vice-President - not for Miss America!!!

Independent Voter said...

Thank you Oreo!

Aunt Jean said...

Leah

I think when McLame picked Palin that he had his head stuck in a dark hole instead of on top of his shoulder like most normal people.

It just goes to show how little respect he has for women. If he wanted to really pick a woman for his VP.

I'm sure that he could have found one with more experience. I guess he wanted an ex 2nd place beauty queen. AJ

Aunt Jean said...

Leah and Beryl

I'll third that.

Palin you are no Hillary

That's for darn sure! AJ

Leah Texas4Obama said...

MSNBC...

Palin - Dan Quayle with a ponytail!

Leah Texas4Obama said...

On the front page of CNN.com they have a photo of McCain and Palin.

Palin is wearing a HUGE flag pin!

Hahahahaha!

Aunt Jean said...

Leah

about Dan Quayle now that is funny as hell to think about more so because it's true LMAO AJ

Aunt Jean said...

Well everyone got to run I'm sure that there is going to be plenty to read when I get home. Have a nice one. GO OBAMA/BIDEN 08

AJ

UUbuntu said...

As an Obama supporter, I'm not as jovial about McCain's pick. To me, the selection of Palin looks like a very smart move by the McCain campaign. Young, attractive, reformer, ardently Christian, pro gun, pro death penalty, and very popular in her state. By not picking Romney, McCain reinforces his (phony) message of an "independent maverick", and yet she will please the cultural conservatives without threatening the moneyed interests of the RNC. It will also play well with the disaffected Clinton supporters who care more about the candidate's gender than the candidate's policies.

On the other hand, with 1 (so far minor) scandal in 2 years of elective office, there's not much weight to the "ready on day 1" argument any more, and the inevitable comparisons to Dan Quayle may creep in soon.

The pundits will love it. It'll give them a chance to pull Hillary Clinton back into the limelight, where they can goose the ratings by promoting the Clinton-Obama drama (and subtly reinforcing the "passed over" message) without even having Hillary Clinton in the race.

Let's see how it plays out in the next 4 weeks.

Independent Voter said...

There can be absolutely ZERO doubt that McCain does nothing but pander for votes. He panders to the anti-choice evangelical hypocrites while at the same time pandering to women in general. I think the PUMA crowd are the ONLY ones who will be incapable of seeing this as pandering.

Independent Voter said...

Sarah Palin - meet the Geraldine Ferraro of the Republican Party. Only put on the ticket because she's a woman.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

The McCain camp knew he was going to lose. The McCain camp knew Obama would be the focus of the media today and the weekend.

The McCain camp did the only thing that they could think of to put the focus back on their campaign.

The Palin pick has nothing to do with experience or who is the best qualified to be VP.

Shame on you John McCain!

Obama-Biden '08

Vicki in Seattle said...

I did NOT see it coming. wow.

how many EVs is Alaska?

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Hahaha! Love this comment from over on HuffPost...

"Hey, after looking absolutely everywhere for someone shorter than he is, he finally found someone. I do not think he was looking for someone who could be president; I think he was looking for someone who could make him look tall..."

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Palin as McCain's VP
by: tremayne
Fri Aug 29, 2008 at 10:49

From Wikipedia:

- Sarah Palin is 44 years old

- Has served less than 2 years as Governor of Alaska

- Pro-life

- Helped to pass an ethics reform bill

- Is accused of trying to get her ex-brother in law fired and last month fired the Commissioner of Public Safety. Investigation still underway.

- Has five children. The oldest deploys to Iraq next month and youngest has Down's Syndrome.

- Big supporter of more drilling

- 2nd place, Miss Alaska Beauty pageant, 1984

There appears to be a battle at her Wiki page as "brother in law" recently disappeared from it although an account of the scandal still exists without those words. This pick would seem to eliminate and indeed could reverse the "not ready for the job" argument the McCain campaign has aimed at Obama. Can they argue Palin is ready to be President of the United States? Your take?
-----------------------

That about wraps it up!

Independent Voter said...

Vicki, to answer your question.....3

ROFL! I don't think he did it to keep AK red....but with the poor judgment he showed by naming Palin, I really have to question his mental capacity to be CiC.

UUbuntu said...

Regarding the height issue -- I guess Kucinich turned him down :-)


I saw Palin as someone with an outside chance (like Jindal, before his excorcism revelation), so I'm not *totally* surprised at the choice. Picking Romney would indicate his total capitulation to the Republican kingmakers, and Pawlenty would not have netted the headlines. Palin may be a lightweight (or may not be -- we don't know), but Pawlenty is a well known lightweight.

Unlike most people here, I consider Palin to be a smart choice by McCain. Watch the gasbags on CNN, NPR, MSNBC and the Sunday talk shows react to this choice. I almost guarantee most of them will praise that choice as "bold and independent". They'll love the choice.

Karen Anne said...

Mike,

Women can do a lot more with their clothes and appearance than men can.

Guys are basically stuck with a suit in professional situations. And not much leeway in haircuts, some, but not nearly as much as women.

Women have a whole spectrum of things they can wear, some much more flattering to an individual woman then others. Ditto hair.

So it bother us to see a woman looking noticeably worse than she could.

By the way, somewhere in my Internet travels I ran across a page with clothes advice (including hair :-) for McCain, just recently, but, of course, that's rare.

Guys should show some initiative and wear more interesting things, but I don't think you'll see Presidential candidates doing that any time soon.

UUbuntu said...

AK is 3 EV. It leaned McCain, now it's solid McCain. But the EV wasn't the reason for the choice (like Wyoming's 3 EV wasn't the reason for Bush's choice of McCain).

She's there to add some spark to his campaign, which has been dull. And to take much of the shine away from Obama's terrific speech last night, and to goose the ratings for the Republican Convention next week.

Karen Anne said...

Mike -

By the way, a guy who dresses interestingly - Muammar Qaddafi.

UUbuntu said...

4 minutes with Sarah Palin from a month ago (as the Wooten story started breaking):

YouTube

The fun part is at the 3 minute mark where she asks what the VP job really is.

Beryl said...

From another blog:

"By the way, another reason mcbush choose her…she is shorter than he is!!!"


LOL!!!

Joshua said...

Karen Anne
I don’t speak for all men, but this man is totally clueless about fashion. I really do not notice any differences in women’s hairdo, except when the hair obstructs some of their face (which I consider unprofessional, but fantastic on a date). So, I guess it may be a gender difference. I doubt that I would notice the difference if Hillary wore a dress tomorrow – except that now I may start paying attention.

OK, quick test. Don’t go back and check. Did Palin wear a dress or a pantsuit to her debut? I am not sure.

UUbuntu said...

Here's a link to some Palin analysis I basically agree with. I particularly like point #9, and think that that point had much to do with this choice.

Independent Voter said...

Mike, I think she wore a skirt with a business jacket.

Joshua said...

I V
Hold on, I’ll go check because honestly, I did not notice.

Joshua said...

Karen Anne
I apologize, I was wrong. I went to check on Palin’s debut outfit and couldn’t quickly find it. So I went and asked my wife. She and I watched it together on CSPAN when it happened. And what did my wife just tell me: “I didn’t even notice!”

It is not a gender difference. It is just differences in people. The things that are important to some are not to others, regardless of gender. I stand corrected.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

I am ready to watch Hillary on the stump to see what she says - she is going to hit McCain hard on this!

Ferraro was on tv earlier and she was still spewing anti-Obama pro-women garbage.

I am still shocked that McCain would insult women of America like this.

Obama-Biden '08

Richard said...

AP - the problem is that her current 'do and glasses make her look bookish. Perhaps they won't have her lose the glasses completley, but she will definitely lose the thick-bowed frameless pair she currently wears. And I don't think her hairdo will outlast the week.

Having thought about it a bit more, my ultimate reaction to this pick is that she is completely unqualified to be President...a scary thought when the man at the top of the ticket is 72 years old.

Beryl said...

I just donated to HRC's campaign (Leah - I know, I know). I just want her to know that I appreciated what she did this week and want her to come out and kick Palin's behind.

Independent Voter said...

Rich - I totally agree with you. The man is on his last leg. Do we really want her a heartbeat away from the presidency?

She tried touting her military "experience" by saying that she controls AKs national guard. Ya OK, good luck with that one. What have they done? Besides protecting the OIL pipeline there in AK. LOL

Joshua said...

McCain’s VP pick, here’s what I think:
1. McCain is a shrewd politician. He has successfully replaced talk about the Obama acceptance speech to talk about McCain’s pick.
2. It was a bold move. Risky, but bold. It may provide a home for women who are angry at Obama for irrational reasons.

On the other hand, it was a statement of panic and lack of judgment. It tells me that McCain has conceded the election and does not feel he has anything to lose, so, why not make this gambit move.

It tells me that McCain lacks originality. Even the speech given by Palin showed failure to even mask the cynical choice she is. She even referred to Geraldine Ferraro in her speech! That was dumb! Ferraro was a move of desperation and it ended in an abject failure. She should have pretended that her gender had nothing to do with her choice.

It tells me that the GOP is a retrograde Party. Geraldine was what, 25 years ago? And they are finally waking up to placing a woman in their national ticket. Yes I remember that Libby Dole ran once, didn’t she. But she was not a serious candidate.

Independent Voter said...

That's ok beryl, I donated on Tuesday.

Richard said...

I agree that HRC will be on the campaign trail a lot more in the coming months...not because Obama is afraid of Palin and feels like he needs his own woman to counter her, but because Hillary is going to be indignant that her supporters are being insulted in this way. There is no way she's going to allow McCain to get away with this pander without a fight. Hillary will tear her apart.

Independent Voter said...

Wow! Check out this quote from Palin!


Excerpt:
Palin hasn't always viewed Clinton so kindly. At a 2007 forum, she said in response to a question about Clinton's treatment in the press, "Any kind of perceived whine about that excess criticism. ... I think, man, that doesn't do us any good, women in politics, women in general, wanting to progress this country."

Richard said...

From a friend's blog:

The only thing for me to say about the current state of politics/elections/whatever: I supported Hillary Clinton because of her beliefs, not because of her estrogen. If people supported Clinton for her politics, rather than the novelty of her gender, they will be voting Obama in this election- if not for him to win, then for McCain to lose.

Just saying this because I am sure there will be people defecting to the McCain side now entirely because his VP is female (as though having a woman deciding women should have no control over their own bodies is better than a man saying it), and they... are really not Clinton supporters.

It's not Clinton supporters who will be voting for four more years of Republicans. It's idiots. There's a big difference.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

MSNBC...

McCain has only met Palin ONCE before today!

Karen Anne said...

Mike said: "OK, quick test. Don’t go back and check. Did Palin wear a dress or a pantsuit to her debut? I am not sure."

I haven't watched any video about her yet. Don't think I'm going to. There is something to be said for not watching everything...

It just occurs to me that Hillary must be furious. She didn't get the nomination, but some ridiculous idiot female gets the VP nomination. Maybe Hillary is our secret weapon against Palin.

Richard said...

You know, I've been playing around with numbers, and there at least three not-much-talked-about very plausible scenarios in which we might see an electoral vote tie. I'm not particularly worried about the outcome in such a tie, but as a political junkie I'm fascinated by the possibilites. These scenarios are:

1) Kerry States + IA, NV, NM

2) Kerry States - NH + IA, CO, NM

3) Kerry States - NH + IA, CO, NV

Of these, I think the second is the most likely.

How do you think the public would react to such an outcome?

Independent Voter said...

Karen Anne - I don't think Hillary is a secret weapon, she is a very well-known weapon who will be a very good attack dog on Palin.

Independent Voter said...

Rich, Democrats would react with extreme joy (since they will have the majority in Congress) and the Republicans would be pissed as hell.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

I've watched a Palin video and I couldn't see her legs in the video.

She either had a business jacket with a skirt or slacks on. Couldn't tell in the video that I saw.

Independent Voter said...

Rich, I also think it would also depend on how the popular vote plays out. Remember Dems wanted to do away with the Electoral College after 2000. If there were a tie and Dems have the majority in Congress, and if McDouchebag won the popular vote, I could see the Republicans wanting to abolish the EC, because Congress would determine the winner.

I really like seeing the Republicans squirm.

Joshua said...

I just tuned to MSNBC to Chris Matthews show. Andrea Michel is about to have an orgasm pushing the Palin choice. She couldn’t shut up even after the anchor tried to cut her off. He later said, “I want to ask you about the age issue and I want to get away from the gender issue.” Andrea’s next remark is that the Obama camp is running around in confusion about Palin. At that point I again turned the TV off. I am amazed that anyone thinks that Andrea is pro-Obama. I question your ability to analyze facts if you hold this view.

Independent Voter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Richard said...

Dave, I think that no matter which side of the aisle people are on it will be hard to justify another election decided after-the-fact in Washington to the people. I agree that the popular vote would affect the debate, especially if McCain won the popular vote. Still, I think people are fed up with their votes not determining the election.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

You have to go to the politics slide show to see the photo .. the link is not direct.

Yep, skirt. Shoes in other photo are tacky! Ugh!

.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Other articles on HuffPost politics page:

Scrubbed: Palin Ad Featuring Ted Stevens Disappears

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/29/scrubbed-palin-ad-featuri_n_122488.html


Romney, Pawlenty: McCain Used Us!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/29/romney-pawlenty-mccain-us_n_122498.html

---------------

Busy news day today!

OBAMA-BIDEN '08

Mike in Maryland said...

At pollster.com, the neo-fascists are trying to make Palin out as a Rhodes scholar on the experience issue. "Mayor of a town, and governor (of Alaska) gives her the experience edge hands-down over Obama" is what they are tying to say.

They're also saying it's a brilliant move on McCain's part, as now Obama cannot bring up the experience argument without shooting himself in the foot.

Contradictory? The neo-fascists don't think so.

Then one neo-fascist comes on and says, "I turned the channel over to MSNBC. I couldn't believe that Andrea Mitchell was already slamming Palin. Boy, those people on that channel have given surrogacy a new definition."

I guess the message and/or perspective changes depending on the political outlook (and intelligence?) the eye of the beholder.

Mike

apissedant said...

am I the only one that thinks her voice sounds like running finger nails across a chalkboard.

jean said...

Ok, A little of Letterman in the afternoon.
I know it is not nice but a LONG week.
10. Does she know that traveling by helicopter to neighboring cities is not the #1 transportation?
9. Does she know that the red light districts usually are not the majority of the city?
8. Two years experience, well, come on.
7. There are 670,000 in Alaska, she will not know everyone.
6. Does she know any other resource of energy other than oil?
5. Once she can shop at nice shops all the time she will never be in the office, goes for men also.
4. When you google Palin she does not come up.
3. Not everyone in the US gets a check from oil.
2. "Clinton is a whiner" she hasn't seen nothing yet.
1. Foreign affairs experience does not mean you have a passport.

suzihussein22 said...

I saw a headline that said-Dan Quayle in a dress. ;)

Doug said...

I have been a long-time lurker on this forum, and in the wake of the DNC convention I just want to say "thank you" to all of the posters who pull information from around the web and bring it onto this site--it has been very informative! I just wish I could vote in the election (annexing Canada would guarantee an Obama-Biden victory!).

I am sure that in 48 hours the choice of Palin is going to look much worse than it does now once the novelty wears off.

Beryl said...

You might have read this:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=94118849

A wiki editor got busted.

LOL!

Beryl said...

This woman has little/no experience. She is bad for this spot because she is a heartbeat from the presidency. Pat B. is thrilled with her because she supported him.

One talk show host compared her to the Clarence Thomas for women. I totally agree. Women cannot be proud of and should not vote for her.

jean said...

beryl,
I think my post says what I think.
To Harsh?
jean

Independent Voter said...

Jean, Not harsh enough ;)

jean said...

indy,
Did you find it funny?
The husband is in traffic (could explain it) but he thought it was quite amusing.
jean

Beryl said...

Jean,
I think you made your point clear. LOL!

Someone compared her to the Clarence Thomas for women. So true! Having black skin does not automatically grant him support but AAs. Clarence Thomas was a bad choice for AAs, elderly, gay, handicapped, and women.

I think HRC, Jill, and Michelle need to take it on the road. Just because Sarah has the same plumbing as we do doesn't mean that she will represent our issues well.

Wouldn't that be wonderful? Jill gets up first warming up the crowd, then Michelle who introduces HRC who then smacks down the McLame/Palin ticket!

Whooo Hooo!!

Beryl said...

Wayback Machine wiki link:
http://web.archive.org/web/20071202070904/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin

Innocuous entry at best.

apissedant said...

I just got good news. I just talked to my aunt, who was a serious Hillary supporter and is a Michigander who felt disenfranchised by the DNC over the primary issue. At the beginning of the week, she had still not chosen to support Barack Obama.

I just had a talk with her, and boy has that changed. First off, she feels "insulted" by John McCain. That was her word, not mine. I asked her if she felt cheap, she responded she felt insulted. I didn't even mention anything other than posing the question if she felt cheap, and she instantly knew exactly what I was talking about. She just said that she has faith that Barack Obama can start to repair our nation over the next 8 years.

I was a little surprised. She wasn't just saying that she was going to vote for him, she had faith that he could help repair our nation. She didn't just have faith that he could do this, but she was realistic, and realized that it wouldn't take place in 90 days, a year, or even 4 years. This not only gave me hope for THIS election, but for the election in 4 years too. She is just one voter, so it is merely anecdotal evidence, but I still found it very positive.

apissedant said...

beryl,
Thanks for that information. I was wondering why her wiki page was so positive and didn't mention any of the controversies.

Independent Voter said...

Oops! I guess Johnny boy pissed off Pawlenty and Romney - oops my bad, "bruised their feelings". (Since when do Republicans have 'feelings?)

Leah Texas4Obama said...

A comment from HuffPost...


McCain marries a beauty queen. Then divorces her when she's no longer beautiful.

Then he marries a moneyed beauty heiress to a beer fortune.

Then he picks a runner up (Miss Alaska) beauty queen as his VP candidate.

---------------------------

Beryl said...

Leah
I thought the same thing about the beauty queens in McSogyny's life.

He also has that lobbyist controversy who was around the same age as Palin.

Independent Voter said...

Hmmmmm, it sure looks like McDouchebag is making a lot of enemies in the entertainment industry. Two weeks ago it was Jackson Browne and now Van Halen.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/29/van-halen-mad-at-mccain-o_n_122464.html

apissedant said...

Dave!!!

You've forgotten again!! All Republicans have feelings, no Republicans have empathy. All events are judged on how they effect them individually, not anyone else.

jean said...

leah,
Your comment about beauty queens.
That is the one of the sickest things I have ever read.
And it is true.
Honestly, something I do not want the kids to read. Wrong values.
jean

Independent Voter said...

Leah and Beryl,

Like I said earlier, Cindy better keep an eye on Palin.

Independent Voter said...

LOL p'd ant! Well their own and those in the oil industry.....forget the polar bears. I still can't believe that she is in favor of taken polar bears off the endangered species list.

Independent Voter said...

UGH! Typo - taking

Independent Voter said...

I soooooooooooooo cannot wait to see what Maher has to say on "Real Talk" tonight.

apissedant said...

Dave,
You missed one:

http://www.rollingstone.com/rockdaily/index.php/2008/02/04/mellencamp-asks-mccain-to-stop-using-tunes/

apissedant said...

Dave, the Polar Bear interview is on youtube. In it, she says that the polar bear population has grown significantly over the last 30 years. I was unable to find evidence to support this, and she did not offer any.

Karen Anne said...

In its current state, Palin's wikipedia page is fawning and deceptive to the point of nausea. It's also had hundreds of edits today, not just from the person npr noted.

I'm surprised wikipedia hasn't rolled it back and frozen it. Altho the wiki editor npr interviewed is apparently a Palin fan, maybe that's why.

apissedant said...

The one thing I was able to find was that there were more polar bear's seen by indigenous people, but they do not know if they are the same polar bears over and over, or if they're being forced down from somewhere else... or anything else. No actual count was used, just the anecdotal evidence that they only saw one polar bear last year, and this year they saw two. Very scientific.

Independent Voter said...

LOL p'd ant. I hear ya. Remember, she is a "creationist", evolution is based on false science.

Independent Voter said...

Well, ok, you all know that I normally avoid our resident troll. BUT! It seems as though IT got one thing right. She is going to carry away a good junk of the PUMAs.

It called the PUMAs JUNK. Got that one right!

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Doug - You're welcome, I'm one of those folks I believe :)

-----------------

Everyone-
This is a great article!

The Worst Vice-Presidential Nominee in U.S. History

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-j-elisberg/the-worst-vice-presidenti_b_122491.html

.

Vicki in Seattle said...

selecting Palin was a "hail Mary" maneuver on McCain's part. He's desperate.

seriously, the mayor of a 5,000 pop town in Alaska? Guiliani must be miffed, too.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Thank God! The media (MSNBC) is already, right now, vetting Palin regarding the legislative investigation that she is going under in Alaska for trying to get her brother-in-law fired. She and her administration made over 24 calls to get him fired!

Abuse of power in an elected office!!! Yeaaaaa !

I am not sure if I want her to drop out of the race or stay in so that Obama's camp can use her to bring McCain down!

Vicki in Seattle said...

quote on NPR today from a Hillary supporter: "you think I'm voting for McCain just because he picked a woman? I'm not INSANE."

(more or less, the precise words escape me)

I'm hearing this sentiment more and more: Hillary supporters, by and large, supported her IDEAS, not her gender.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Palin-

Was for the bridge to nowhere before she was against it.

IS for drilling in ANWAR!

Was for Stevens before she was against him.

Has ZERO tolerance for abortion even in cases of rape and incest. This is TOTALLY against Hillary's stand on this issue.

Has no national or foreign policy experience.

As mayor of the small town in Alaska her TWO duties were to 1)Break a TIE in a vote
2)Ceremonial spokesman

She has LESS than two years as governor.

This woman is not qualified to even be the Mayor of Houston, Texas!

I fell like the world has gone insane today!!!

.

Beryl said...

Yeah, I'm glad they are looking into it. She may have had good reason to get the BIL fired but she claimed to know nothing about it. Now there is a tape that indicates otherwise. She may have had good reason abuse her power but she should not have denied it.

We've had enough lies coming out of the WH over the last 8 years resulting in over 1 million lives. We don't need another liar elected.

Mike in Maryland said...

Vicki in Seattle said...
I'm hearing this sentiment more and more: Hillary supporters, by and large, supported her IDEAS, not her gender.

Vicki,

Considering that Hillary's and Barack's positions were and are so similar, for many of HRC's supporters the tie-breaker was the gender factor.

With Palin, there is no tie on policy issues to break, thus they will NOT vote on the gender issue.

Mike

apissedant said...

A message to all women that sound like Fran Drescher:

Never complain about another woman, "sounding like she's whining." It calls attention to your own, annoying, whiney voice. Yes, I am speaking to you Sarah Palin.

Independent Voter said...

LOL p'd ant!

How did your first week of classes go?

apissedant said...

Dave,
GREAT! Lots of work, and I haven't even touched my homework yet, but I love being back, and can't wait for it to be over. How about you?

suzihussein22 said...

I'm trying to connect with more young Dems in my region. There's a college that their Dem group doesn't look like it's been active for 2 yrs. Good grief! I'm gonna try to jerk a knot in their tails.

peevish-Would you classify that as whining or nagging? ;)

Mike said...

What a big constrast in judgement between Barack and McCain. A VP should be able to step in to be president from day1, especially judging from McCain's age; she should complement the president in area of his weakness (economy, healthcare, ...) and above all, should be committed to the president's program 102%. Two independent minds in the white house is looking for trouble.

McCain did this to show that he is for women's cause. This is a man how called his wife a C$$nt for every one to hear, just because she joked with his hair in public. This is a man who few months ago debased his wife that she should enter a bikini contest, in the presence of the camera. this is the man how cheated on his first wife, despite her steadfast love for him.

This is a man so temperimental that colleagues within the same party are fearful of him getting close to the presidency and making life and death decisions. Those who care should googgle "McCain temper" and be amazed at the numerous hits. He is just one anger away from yelling at Palin and calling her all sorts of names. I just pray that the camera is there to record.

To all you Democrats, you had great convention and showed the American people the quality of leadership and thoughtful people in the party. I am really proud to be a Democrat. Let's unite and win this one for the sake of our children and their future

Independent Voter said...

p'd ant - we don't start until Sept. 2nd. I really wish we started this week.

apissedant said...

soft,
I think you're good. I've complained about many of the same things in my area. The funny thing is that now my area is picking up in activity, and now I'm out of the loop. I got discouraged with the lack of activity and motivation, started school, and then became too busy to even notice when things started to change for the better. I wish I was a more focused and less distractable individual so I could take a larger role in the transition my area is going through.

I'll have to take solace in the small changes that I am able to make. I got my two neighbors on board with democratic initiatives, and have gotten them to volunteer a few times. I also think I'll be able to win a few converts at the University.

I wish you luck with your plans, and hope you have more success and drive than I had.

apissedant said...

Dave,
I hate summer break! Only old college students say that, but I mean it! I just wanna get it done. Boredom doesn't sit well with me. Good luck next week! I should sleep now, enjoy all!

Independent Voter said...

gnight p'd ant

apissedant said...

PS

The Daily Show is doing a number on Palin, it is great. Everything we have brought up has been ridiculed, including the vagina vote, the squeeky voice, the not knowing what a VP does thing, the no experience thing, the foreign policy through living near Russia thing, and a few others. Jon Stewart is great. He is the first one (on tv) that brought up the "vagina vote" in that wording, and the first one that brought up the annoying voice part. I LOVE IT!

suzihussein22 said...

Highlights of the convention from a non-political perspective-

http://tinyurl.com/5emlgx

peevish-so long, farewell, auf vierderhsenn(sp), goodnight

Independent Voter said...

p'd ant! LMAO! I can't wait for it to air on the left coast! ;)

suzihussein22 said...

iv dave-peevish should have put out a spoiler warning. ;)

Vicki in Seattle said...

M in MD - not sure if you are agreeing with me, but I think we are on the same page anyway.

don't make me argue with you about whether or not "anal-retentive" has a hyphen in it. Because it does, and I will brook no disagreement on it.

(V V B G)

Vicki in Seattle said...

Oh! nearly forgot! there were a couple of gentleman outside the post office today, handing out literature on Lyndon LaRouche.

he's still alive, I guess.

Mike in Maryland said...

Vicki in Seattle said...
M in MD - not sure if you are agreeing with me, but I think we are on the same page anyway.

Vicki,

Total agreement. I was just expanding on your comments to show even more why Palin shouldn't have any appeal for those supporters of Hillary who were supporting her on the issues. To those supporters, Hillary's gender was a major plus, but not the only reason they supported her.

Mike

Beryl said...

She is not good for the planet.

http://www.defendersactionfund.org/

BP=British Petroleum

Shocking Choice by John McCain

WASHINGTON-- Senator John McCain just announced his choice for running mate: Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska. To follow is a statement by Rodger Schlickeisen, president of Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund.

"Senator McCain's choice for a running mate is beyond belief. By choosing Sarah Palin, McCain has clearly made a decision to continue the Bush legacy of destructive environmental policies.

"Sarah Palin, whose husband works for BP, has repeatedly put special interests first when it comes to the environment. In her scant two years as governor, she has lobbied aggressively to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, pushed for more drilling off of Alaska's coasts, and put special interests above science. Ms. Palin has made it clear through her actions that she is unwilling to do even as much as the Bush administration to address the impacts of global warming. Her most recent effort has been to sue the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to remove the polar bear from the endangered species list, putting Big Oil before sound science. As unbelievable as this may sound, this actually puts her to the right of the Bush administration.

"This is Senator McCain's first significant choice in building his executive team and it's a bad one. It has to raise serious doubts in the minds of voters about John McCain's commitment to conservation, to addressing the impacts of global warming and to ensuring our country ends its dependency on oil."

Leah Texas4Obama said...

I have been listening to the TV all day and also reading all day about Palin and it has made me physically sick thinking that there could be a possibility that McCain could win and then die and then we would be stuck with that woman as president - a president that would be totally unqualified and unexperienced to be president!

I think I have been in shock all day.

Doug said...

Leah, yes I do appreciate the links that you post, and the article about "worst VP choice ever" is very good indeed.

There was also a dicussion (ages ago) about terra preta and (I think it was Mike in Maryland who posted the links?)--that discussion really got me to rethink the environmental issue around carbon.

I said "48 hours" in an earlier post and I am amending that to 24 hours--one news cycle--before the consensus on Sarah Palin is established that she is a "bad pick" for the GOP.

Go OBama-Biden!

Karen Anne said...

Hi, Leah,

I share your shock at that idea.

dcw just posted a further tighting in the EVs. So what is causing this, do you all think? Ads?

Beryl said...

Yes, nothing but negative ads are coming out the McSame campaign. Unfortunately, they work.

We need Biden/Clinton/et al highlighting all of the things Obama said Thursday night.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Karen Anne-

DCW posted the PRE-convention forecast (OLD) - dated the 24th I think. That was when McCain was running the negative ads... but the polls coming out yesterday and today were good for Obama so the next forecast will be really good for Obama.

DCW will post the after convention forecast soon :)

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Alaska GOP State Senate Leader: Palin Not Ready

State Senate President Lyda Green said she thought it was a joke when someone called her at 6 a.m. to tell her the news.

"She's not prepared to be governor. How can she be prepared to be vice president or president? said Green, a Republican from Palin's hometown of Wasilla. "Look at what she's done to this state. What would she do to the nation?"

--------------------

Palin is NOT ready or qualified to be VP or president!!!

Leah Texas4Obama said...

This is UNBELIEVABLE !!!

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/30/us/politics/29palin.html?_r=4&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

Excerpt:

She’s going to learn national security at the foot of the master for the next four years, and most doctors think that he’ll be around at least that long,” said Charlie Black, one of Mr. McCain’s top advisers, making light of concerns about Mr. McCain’s health, which Mr. McCain’s doctors reported as excellent in May.

-----

Aunt Jean said...

Mike in Maryland

your poat at 12:26 am was right on the money.

This woman really takes the prize for dunce!

Does she really expect to get Hillary voters just because she's a woman.

Not that long ago she was making rude remarks now she expects women to have a mental lapse and say daaaa lets vote for McLame he's got a woman [or at least she looks like one] for his VP.

Come on McLame get real.

Michele and Hillary are real women and cares about America and the shape we are in because we've had McBush in there for 8 years of hell. Give me one reason why we would want more of the same.

As Hillary put it : No Way No How NO McLame!!!!!


p.s. great words!

AJ

tmess2 said...

My complaint about picking Palin resembles my complaint 17 years ago about picking Clarence Thomas.

It's not that the Republicans are playing identity politics. If they think that it's time to join the 21st Century and give a woman or a minority a chance that's fine. But if you are going to pick a woman or a minority at least pick the best one.

I can think of at least several Republican Women that would be better qualified than Sarah Palin (and that's off the top of my head) -- Senators Snowe, Collins, Hutchinson, and Dole; Secretary of State Rice and that's without going through the members of the House. If you want a woman from Alaska, Senator Murkowski is more qualified.

Mike in Maryland said...

One theory I heard is that all those women that tmess2 named (and more) were asked, but they all turned it down.

So that left Palin as the 'best' of the rest. A very poor 'best' she is.

Mike

Mike in Maryland said...

Earlier this week, I read an article about an unnamed Republican who had heard of the VP choice, when asked who it was, told the reporters that he wouldn't tell, but his reaction on hearing the name of the nominee was "Meshugas" - Yiddish for madness, nonsense, irrational idiosyncrasy.

I couldn't imagine why a stalwart Republican might have that reaction, but now we know.

Mike

Beryl said...

"McCain picking Palin is a huge joke!"

Many of us thought Ronald Reagan was a joke too.

Michel Martin on Bill Maher tonight commented that we need to take this selection seriously. The deceived religious right will vote for McCain with her on the ticket along with the rest of the neocons. The Repugs are planning to turn her into President in 2012.

We must work very hard to stop this!

apissedant said...

I'm ready to give Alaska back to Russia.

Richard said...

The Daily Show is doing a number on Palin, it is great.

Wait...since when does The Daily Show do a Friday edition? Have I missed something?

apissedant said...

You know, if hurricanes only occurred during election years of Republican administrations... the people in the path of the hurricane would be much better off. Bush was on the ground in Florida 4 years ago immediately after their hurricane too. It is just those pesky middle years where they don't feel a response is necessary.

Karen Anne said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Karen Anne said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Karen Anne said...

So the politics of character mumbling has Palin's fifth child at age 43 actually being her teenage daughter's out of wedlock.

I think maybe not, as her age would explain the Down's.

What I find mind-boggling, amid the rest of the mind boggling parts of this, is that she apparently handed the child off to a nanny when he was three days old, and is now taking credit as though she were the one struggling with the day to day exhausting worry and work of having a handicapped child. That's really an offense to anyone anywhere who has been a caretaker.

Emit R Detsaw said...

Ok, I don't usually like to go to the mud side of politics - I tend to lean to discussing the issues and searching for the truth, but.......

When I first heard the announcement of Palin as VP my reaction was:

Ok, McCain's first wife was a beauty queen and he dumped her after she got disfigured and he had been dating a rodeo beauty queen. Then he marries the much younger rodeo beauty queen.(yuck factor of she was young enough to be his daughter) Then he selects a runner up beauty queen to be his VP choice. The womanizer strikes again by looking for cute younger females.

But then I started to do some research on Palin, and reading through this and other message boards about Palin's background. Then this struck me:

Republican Party releases a new movie trailer - Dumb and Dumber try to win the Whitehouse. We all know the gaffs that McCain is making. Whether that is because he doesn't know, is suffering from some kind of dementia, or the PSTD is still effecting him, we all know he finished 5th from the bottom of his Naval Academy class. So he is Dumb. Palin, while looking sharp, may be dumber. Wants to take the Polar Bears off the endangered species list, doesn't have a college education that would benefit her being the President in the case the 72 year old McCain can no longer serve, and from her own mouth (unsolicited) she says that she doesn't know what the job of the VP is. Well Sarah, there is this cool thing called the internet. Try googling it. Wikipedia along would give you a clue.

This reminds me of Mondale/Ferraro when the Dems know they didn't have a chance. But in this case I think McCain is just wanting a pretty little girl around him to look at. Anyone else catch him checking her out while she was speaking? Creapy.

Karen Anne said...

Emit, she apparently has a BA.

Someone on the McCain staff knows enough about the Internet to have been cooking her wikipedia entry.

Vicki in Seattle said...

hey, everyone. there are a ton of voter registration drives and other public events today and this weekend.

who here is hitting the streets today? I gotta make some calls. pretty sure you can find them and volunteer by contacting either the obama campaign, or moveon.org.

Vicki in Seattle said...

btw, every single hillary voter I know, is going to vote Obama. They take the nomination of Palin as a blunt insult to their intelligence.

also, the die-hard Republicans? the ones that have been lukewarm on McCain to begin with? they are in a state of adoration.

that tells me that Obama needs to move, and move quickly, to claim the center of the spectrum. he's smart. I think he'll do that.

Richard said...

Karen_Anne - I think Emit knows she has a B.A. in journalism; he was opining that such a degree would not be useful for a President.

I read through those edits by "Young Trigg" on Wikipedia, and they were so blatant it just boggles the mind that they felt they could get away with it.

Richard said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Richard said...

Is anyone else having a problem where this thread brings up the word verification error asking you to re-enter the CAPTCHA and when you do you find that it's posted your comment twice? This has happened to me twice just in the past day.

Joshua said...

Matt and Oreo

Why does this site to have multiple posters using the same moniker? This Mike that posted at 10:47 pm is not me.

I am very disappointed with you for allowing this. It is possible to make sure that when someone posts here, they have a unique identification.

This Mike, I asked you once before to not post under that name. Now, show some integrity and stop.

Joshua said...

Matt and Oreo, correction:

Why does this site have multiple posters using the same moniker? This Mike that posted at 10:47 pm is not me.

I am very disappointed with you for allowing this. It is possible to make sure that when someone posts here, they have a unique identification.

This Mike, I asked you once before to not post under that name. Now, show some integrity and stop.

Emit R Detsaw said...

Yup KA - She is more qualified to be the Press Secretary than the VP

Beryl said...

Take this VP pick seriously people. The Repugnicans are NOT planning on 4 years -- they are banking on 12-16 years with this VP pick just as they did back in 1980. They will make the case that under John McCain that Sarah is more experienced than HRC even if she chooses to run in 2012.

The Republicans do not care about people. They only care about power and money and will do ANYTHING to accomplish their evil goals. Over the last 28 years I've watched their insidious plan:

* 1980-1992 - Use the "Religious Right" and establish a "Moral Majority". Couple that with an inspirational messenger - Reagan who changed his personal positions (abortion, religion) for political success.

The economy TANKed and this gave the Dems a chance with Bill Clinton for 8 years. Bill Clinton improved the economy and eliminated our national debt.

* 2000 - Cheat to win in 2000 using deceptive practices in many states. Include FEAR and INTIMIDATION in low-income and predominiately black areas. Rally the Religious Wrong.

* 2004 - Use FEAR to retain power while in a war started by lies. Continue to rally the Religious Wrong.

The economy has tanked and our national debt is larger than ever because of the war. Dems have a chance to solve our problems.

* 2008 - Despite McWrong's negative voting record on women's issues, redefine him with a woman VP pick who can serve 8-16 years. Rally the Religious Wrong and the fearful. Take advantage of racial prejudice.

Solution
1. If you live in a swing state, get out and campaign hard locally. Make phone calls and go door to door. MAKE SURE THE YOUNG PEOPLE VOTE. Ensure they are registered -- especially the college set who may be out of their resident state. Give them a ride to the polls and help them with absentee ballots.

2. If you live in a definite red or blue state, get on the telephone and call Dems in swing states. Stay on the internet blogs making the case offensively and countering all negative comments. Send emails to the MSM complaining about the bias reporting.

This is the only way we will avoid the complete ruin of America, people.

Emit R Detsaw said...

Oh, and in an attempt to do a bit of Palin/Alaska research. Found out that Alaska is one of 29 States with a budget shortfall.

You can't find that at the official Alaska Budget site. They have taken that page down. Makes you wonder huh.

http://www.cbpp.org/1-15-08sfp.htm

And an article on Alaska's tax structure.

http://www.cbpp.org/states/5-17-05sfp-fact-ak.pdf

Joshua said...

Matt and Oreo

I know that you do not have much control on who posts here and how, but you can ask your webmaster to write the protocol that verifies that each poster has a unique id and no two posters can have the same id. This is really very simple and rudimentary.

If you do not do this, I am going to start posting here as “Matt.” Comprehende?

Joshua said...

To the poster who posted at 10:47,
You are the same person who posted once before a month or two back. It is easy to tell because you do not have much use for proper grammar. Simple netiquette dictates that you do not impersonate another poster.

Beryl said...

Emit - can you find the Alaska budget page from the Wayback site?

http://www.archive.org/web/web.php

Karen Anne said...

Well, one thought. Palin's positions are so horrible that they are likely to drive some undecided or leaning McCain voters to Obama.

Wonder what the number of those is compared to the right wing types who will vote for her who wouldn't have bothered to show up for McCain.

In the cold light of day, the only real downside that I see for Dems in Palin is Biden could have made mincemeat of any other VP choice. Now he has to be careful not to seem like he's beating up a girl.

What do you think about how to handle that? If she goes teary, do we lose votes?

suzihussein22 said...

Did McCain not do his research before passing over Mittens-

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/30/business/30gascars.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

suzihussein22 said...

off topic-I got to know somebody who came up 3 yrs. ago yesterday from NOLA. The only thing we got to help him with was a couple of meals. I asked him yesterday if he had ever been back down. He said no because there was never anything rebuilt to go back to. Silver lining-He married a woman who had to come up after Rita. It's just so beyond sad. We sent money and water. I'm afraid it was wasted by FEMA. :-(

Why would the Reps. create another agency if they are for less government? I know, rhetorical question.

suzihussein22 said...

e r d-I've asked a couple of feminists about including women in the draft. They didn't know how to answer that. hehehe

Karen Anne said...

Emit, you know that, and I know that, but don't forget that Hillary tearing up and playing the girl card probably won her a state.

You may be right, though. I am not sure.

It's interesting that Obama pulled back from the initial press release his campaign sent out. Dunno what to think about that.

When I get bummed out, I remember that we trust him to lead the country, we ought to trust him to run his campaign.

Emit R Detsaw said...

In the Primaries Obama and Biden (early when he was still in) didn't attack because they didn't want to destroy the parties chance to win the Whitehouse. General Election is a different story. They will not smear with distorted truths or lies, but they will point out where she can not be trusted Day 1 with running the country. Presidents and VPs must be able to lead - DAY 1.

suzihussein22 said...

I've lived in TN all my life. I know I have a narrow view of this country, much less other continents, even though I have friends from other countries. How will Palin know? Eww, and her name is awful close to saying Putin.

Independent Voter said...

Emit, the problem is that she doesn't believe in equal pay for equal work. But I do agree with you, she is a politician, and the gloves will be off. After all, if you can't take the heat.....

Richard said...

I've been doing a little analysis, and thought I'd share it with you.

New Hampshire remains a tossup this cycle, and IA and NM are looking strong for Obama. Therefore, as a starting point, I give Obama Kerry States - NH + NM + IA = 260

Toss-up states are:

CO, FL, NH, NV, OH, VA

Of these, Obama can win with:

OH
FL
VA
CO + NH
CO + NV

Obama can tie (and have virtual certainty of victory) with:

CO
NH + NV

That is seven winning combinations.

McCain has to win:

FL + OH + VA + CO + NV
FL + OH + VA + CO + NH.

That's two ways to win, and the only states McCain can afford to lose are either NH or NV.

Put another way: all Obama has to do to deny McCain victory is to win any one of FL, OH, VA, or CO; or win both NH and NV.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Mike Oreo-

It is NOT good that you changed your name to Oreo. We on this website respect Matt and Oreo for giving us a wonderful website to participate in.

Matt and Oreo do not read all of the comments on this thread. If you wish to get a message to Matt then you can email him via the address on the right side of the screen.

If you are not happy about some other person having the 'Mike' name since you know how to change your name you can add to yours such as: Mike in Co, Mike in NY, or where ever you are or something else.

But like I said, posting as Oreo or Matt is down right rude and uncalled for.

Thank you for your time.

apissedant said...

Emit,
Remember that she isn't running as a politician or running on equal rights. She is running as a woman for the purpose of a woman finally gaining access to that office. She neither talked policy nor experience at her acceptance speech. She just ran on a "woman unite" ticket.

Karen Anne said...

I'm trying to figure out what Hillary will do.

If she really wants the Democrats to win, she will go out and shred Palin. She's the only one who could do it and no question avoid the beating up a girl effect.

If she's hoping to run in 2012, she'll pull her punches.

Well, I take that back a little. I am sure Obama can come up with another Democratic woman leader who could go after her.

apissedant said...

The Jewish Congresswoman from Florida tried, but she was terrible.

Hillary would be great. She is smarter, more experienced, and has the ability to pack a punch if she really wants to. She also has enough credibility and popularity to make her attack get serious media attention. I can't think of too many other women who could come out and do anywhere near the damage Hillary could do.

The only person who would be better is Ruth Bader Ginsburg. She has shown class and hasn't really gotten involved in political BS, but her Republican counterparts have shown none of this. This is also an issue she is supremely qualified to make. She EARNED her role more than any other federal employee in the country. There is NO WAY anyone could argue Ginsburg was affirmative action without being laughed out of the room.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Karen Anne-

I used to hate it when Debbie Wasserman Schultz would be on TV supporting Hillary and ripping Obama - she is an attack dog!

Now she has been supporting Obama and doing one heck of a job of it.

I am looking forward to Debbie going after Palin. I also think that Hillary will be coming out fighting too because Hillary is not going to let a republican snatch her glory away from her - she's worked too hard to claim the title of glass ceiling breaker and she will be damned before she lets some unexperienced republican use it to further the republican party's agenda - in my opinion.

Richard said...

Not satisfied with my earlier analysis, I decided to try some guestimating about McCain's odds of winning. To calculate these odds, I made some (very generous) assumptions about his chances of winning each state:

FL = 65% = .65
VA = 55% = .55
OH = 50% = .50
CO = 50% = .50
NH = 50% = .50
NV = 65% = .65

As noted above, I predict only two scenarios for McCain victory. The first step in the process will be to find the probability of each of the two possible McCain victory scenarios. To find the probability of McCain winning all five states in each scenario, we multiply his probability of winning each:

Scenario 1: FL + VA + OH + CO + NV

.65 * .55 * .50 * .65 = 0.05809375 (about 6%)

Scenario 2: FL + VA + OH + CO + NH

.65 * .55 * .50 * .50 * .50 = 0.0446875 (about 4%)

Now, to find McCain's chances of winning, we need the probability of either of McCain's two victory scenarios occurring. This is easy to calculate, since it is the sum of the probability of each scenario occurring:

The answer? About 10%!

Richard said...

Correction: the calculation for Scenario 1 should read:

.65 * .55 * .50 * .50 * .65 = 0.05809375 (about 6%)

It doesn't affect the results, I just transcribed my work wrong.

Independent Voter said...

Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!! Obama Biden 08!!

Leah Texas4Obama said...

YOU dear sir are NOT Oreo.

Please change your name and show some respect for the owners of the website.

Oreo said...

Please don't comment as Oreo or Matt. Use a unique screen name.

Thanks

apissedant said...

Obama/Biden Obama/Biden Obama/Biden '08!!!!

apissedant said...

if anyone doubted the the, "you're discriminating against women card" would be played... I'll let you in on a little secret... it has already been played. This morning on MSNBC, they debated a blog post by a Liberal asking how she planned to take care of 5 children, one an infant with down syndrome, while still managing the very serious job of being the #2 in a nation.

The question was not answered, instead a few Republican women got on tv and screamed about how this was sexist and terrible, and, "no one told Joe Biden not to run for Senate after his wife died." This is an absolutely astonishing comparison, as Senator is not Vice President, and his wife dying did not make him the caregiver of a 4 month old child with down syndrome. It doesn't matter, it worked, deflecting the debate of whether or not she could manage both of these very challenging roles, and instead resulted in a large debate of exactly how sexist the blogger was.

This is all within 24 hours of the announcement. Just so everyone has the facts straight: We cannot attack John McCain because he was a POW, and that would be unpatriotic. We cannot attack Palin because she is a woman, and that would be sexist. Also, her son has down syndrome, and mentioning this in anything but a positive manner explaining how great she is is to discriminate against the mentally handicapped.

I'm hoping the voters are smarter than the Republicans think they are. I'm hoping these ridiculous defenses are overplayed quickly, and begin to annoy the public instead of excuse these idiots' actions.

tmess2 said...

I can see two basic ads being run on Sarah Palin for the next two weeks.

Ad 1 -- Building off the don't know economics ad about McCain, a don't know science ad about Palin -- basically noting that after 8 years Bush has finally accepted that global warming is a scientif fact so now the Republicans nominate another doubter guaranteeing more delay on global warming.

Ad 2 -- For 8 years the oil companies have controlled the White House resulting in an economy where oil companies make record profits and we pay through the nose at the pump. Now the Republicans want 4 more years of the same with another oil person as VP.

apissedant said...

tmess,
I'd say an repeatedly running an ad where she asks what exactly a VP does.

Beryl said...

I agree. Those type of ads (opponents own words) are very effective.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

I did NOT post the following comment:
Leah Texas4Obama said...

Oreo, can you make sure that posters cannot use a non-unique screen name?
August 30, 2008 3:10 PM
----

It is MIKE using my name.

Dear Mike:
Until the time comes that there are unique names on this thread why not play nice and chose a name for yourself that is unique?

Oreo and Matt already switched us over to the other format a few weeks ago and it was not working well for the open thread so they switched us back to this format.

They are doing the best that they can do for us and I appreciate them for doing so.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

apissedant-

Jon Stewart used the 'what exactly does the VP do all day?' clip last night on his show and Stewart says 'how about preparing to be the most powerful person in the world!" now today the news is playing the clip from his show! Yippee!

That clip is going to haunt Palin during the next 66 days!!!

Obama-Biden '08

Oreo said...

Whoever the person is posting as other people stop it now.

If you don't like our comment system go somewhere else.

We tried a new system that allowed for more security and for punting people like you.

You're taking up our time.

Joshua said...

Dear Mike, I have an idea for a unique screen name: “Leah Texas4Obama in Texas” or “Leah Texas4Obama in NY” or “Leah Texas4Obama Uniquely Me”

Why am I calling you “Mike” anyway? Just because you started using it before the other Mike began using it does not mean that you are Mike. So, I will refer to you as Mike in Seattle.

Leah Texas4Obama said...

This is not my post:

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Dear Mike, I have an idea for a unique screen name: “Leah Texas4Obama in Texas” or “Leah Texas4Obama in NY” or “Leah Texas4Obama Uniquely Me”

Why am I calling you “Mike” anyway? Just because you started using it before the other Mike began using it does not mean that you are Mike. So, I will refer to you as Mike in Seattle.
-------------------------------


I am not going to post anymore now.. I am logging off. If Mike continues to use my name then let it be known it IS NOT ME!!!

Obama-Biden '08

Leah Texas4Obama said...

Watch Palin as a sports announcer:

Sarah Palin: From TV Sports Anchor To Vice Presidential Candidate

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/30/sarah-palin-from-tv-sport_n_122676.html


GOD HELP AMERICA and GOD HELP PRESIDENT OBAMA!

Joshua said...

I agree with Oreo.

Give the public orders on who can use the internet, or take your blog down and put it in your house, or administer a website correctly. Tough choice. So, tell the posters to take their comments and shove it. Good idea.

Beryl said...

Clearly the Repuglican trolls have decided to wreak havoc on this blog. We know they have no moral compass and live for lies. They are responsible for over 1 million deaths including thousands of US troops from their lie-based war.

Until this issue has been definitively resolved, I'll post on DCW using the IntenseDebate technology and hope others join me there.

Bye for now. Others using my name are trolls.

apissedant said...

Moving forums. Mike the troll is pushing others away into another blog.

Independent Voter said...

Well, he is still using Van Halen. I think it's time that Van Halen goes ahead and sue the McCain campaign.

Emit R Detsaw said...

Ok, now that I wasted some time watching Friday's speech by Palin (rerun on CSPN), and a bit of one from the campaign trail today I know now why McCain picked her.

She is not a candidate - she is a cheerleader.

Like I said previously, she is qualified for only one position on the McCain staff if he were elected (Heaven Forbid) and that would be as Press Secretary.

Independent Voter said...

Emit, I totally agree with you! I really couldn't stomach her voice. I find her voice extremely annoying, not quite Fran Drescher sp? annoying, but still annoying nonetheless.

I don't even know if she is even worthy of the position press secretary. I know that's what she went to school for, but I know for myself I am glad I didn't have to grow up watching her on the news.

Mike in Maryland said...

Somehow the beauty queen aspect of her needs to be tied in with the South Carolina contestant who didn't know the question, so dribbled her talk all over the map about education in other countries.

If people get the idea of a beauty queen contestant (Palin) not knowing what they're discussing (the S. Carolina contestant) in their head, it will be hard to shake.

Then hit the "Is she even capable of being ready in 4 or more years?" question, nad hit it hard.

Mike

Mike in Maryland said...

Friday night, Keith pointed out that she wanted to be a sports announcer for ESPN. However, when she found out that she would have to leave Alaska and live in Connecticut, she decided to not try for the position.

If she had tried, I don't know if ESPN would have paid the enormous amount for voice coaches to change the sound of her voice, if it would even have been possible to change her voice. She does NOT have the voice to do any type of sports reporting, or any type of reporting of any type - too screechy, like fingernails across the blackboard, IMO.

Mike

Independent Voter said...

ROFL MinM! That would be so good, but awfully mean! I LOVE IT!

Joshua said...

I hope we all realize that she was born with that voice and that criticizing someone based on a natural immutable attribute is not gentlemanly. It is not the kind of thing Obama would do. Additionally, saying that any woman’s voice is like “fingernails across a chalkboard” is a typical misogynistic statement. You probably didn’t know that, so, I am telling you to lay off her voice.

apissedant said...

Her degree in journalism didn't do her any good. ESPN wouldn't have hired her... not even when they were a brand new network that just played sportcenter 48 times a day.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/30/sarah-palin-from-tv-sport_n_122676.html


By the way, there are a bunch of posts in the other forum because of troll problems here. The trolls just followed us over though.

apissedant said...

That isn't leah.

apissedant said...

Also, George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, George H. W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and of course, Ross Perot were all made fun of for their voices. To treat a woman differently and not judge her odd characteristics would be biased and sexist.

Richard said...

Hey, everyone. Want to retreat to http://www.democraticelections.org/forum/ until things get straightened out here? I'm going to start posting there again. If you PM me when you get over there, I will make established people over here moderators so we can get rid of trolls.

Joshua said...

There is one more thing I want to say about posting on websites: sites such as this become an echo chamber. Posters are of similar political persuasion and each one seeks the approval of the other and does it by taking positions and making statements that he/she knows is in line with the leanings of the collective. So, they gradually become more and more extreme till they drift off into the abyss. That is what happened to the Bush administration. That is what Obama is determined to prevent.


Let me suggest that Obama has good political instincts. Do not deny the humanity of the other party. As far as they see things, they are doing what they think is best for America. Obviously, you disagree. But it will not help if you demonize them. Before you make an extreme statement, pause and ask yourself: is this the kind of statement Obama would make. We are trying to make him president. So, let’s pull like a team, and not like a bunch of irrational ideologues.

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