Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

Update: We have decided to stop allowing anonymous comments. Not because we don't like reading what people have to say but because Blogger has introduced a new "feature" that makes you go to a second page when the number of comments go over 200.

It's very easy to set up a Google account so that you can continue commenting.

Thanks!

Previous Open Thread here

1552 comments:

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dwit said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 23, 2008 9:32 PM
dwit said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 23, 2008 9:34 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: somerled. Senator Clinton will not lose. Fair or not, if this gets to Denver, who do you give an advantage to in a convention fight, the Clintons or Senator Obama? That's an easy one.

And yes., thankfully Tebow is coming back. Better not have another bad bowl game, though. He still is the best in the business.

robh. Thank you for the kind words. Leah and I are now(once again) getting along. All I ever asked was for the comments toward the candidates to not include the kind of negativity that we are seeing from the campaigns. I think Leah is terrific at what she does here and I wish I knew if she felt the same about a fellow blogger like me.

I generalized those states because those are polar opposites to my ''big state'' theory. I realize that Senator Obama may put other states into play. But the following states will definitely go to Senator McCain:

Kansas
Idaho
Montana
North Dakota
South Dakota

The others will be in play. That's my whole point.; April 23, 2008 9:34 PM
dwit said...: CLINTON TO KEEP US TIED UP IN THE MIDDLE EAST FOREVER!

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, said that the U.S. "should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel. Of course I would make it clear to the Iranians that an attack on Israel would incur massive retaliation from the United States, but I would do the same with other countries in the region."

Now, how is she going to pay for her health care plan again? How about the much needed infrastructure upgrades? Where is she going to find money for an alternative fuels program?

Sounds a little like Baghdad Johnny to me. More war, more terror, less money for domestic programs.; April 23, 2008 9:35 PM
dwit said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 23, 2008 9:39 PM
dwit said...: Thanks for the link Ed. Looks like McCain and Clinton have finally officially joined forces. I've been saying they are one and the same for a very long time and now we have even more proof.; April 23, 2008 9:41 PM
Somerled said...: Gator-

C'mon man. She had to win BIG in PA to have even a chance to catch him. After she gets her ass handed to her May 6, it'll be undeniable. The super will NOT overturn the people and there will be no convention fight. It was a good win in PA, but it's just not enough.; April 23, 2008 9:43 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: somerled. Why is it then that MSNBC(who makes it pretty obvious they are for Senator Obama)calls her win last night decisive? According to Gov. Rendell, you never win a Pennsylvania election of any kind by the amounts she was leading by. Even I knew she wasn't going to win by 20-25 points, but 10 is good enough.

As for May 6: He is currently up 5 in Indiana and 9 in North Carolina. That is hardly ''getting it handed to her''.

I said IF it goes to the convention.; April 23, 2008 9:50 PM
Somerled said...: Sure, and I said it was a GOOD win. But with a 153 pledged delegate lead and only 408 left available, you really have to hope he dies somehow. Otherwise, it's academic. The media is making a FORTUNE off of this- YOU MUST WATCH! IT'S STILL CLOSE! DON'T TOUCH THAT DIAL!

I understand about Florida, but if DNC folded on the rules, the next election would be BEDLAM.

Look, think of the WhiteCastle/McDonald's analogy. She SHOULD have been untouchable. Obama should be on the road to being forgotten. So how is he here? Because people believe. And IF, as you say, he wins this nomination, the SOB had BETTER deliver the goods!; April 23, 2008 10:05 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: Why is it now that Senator Obama backed out of a debate in North Carolina? His strong point is supposedly giving speeches, so you would think that he'd want to try and secure his victory in NC with a strong performance, especially considering his last debate performance. Fair questions or not, he was at his worst last time out. I know both candidates are tired, but Senator Clinton was at her best last debate. Senator Obama knows these debates are still the one area where Senator Clinton outperforms him. He is not afraid of losing North Carolina, so much as he is fearful of losing his 9 point lead if he has a bad debate.; April 23, 2008 10:16 PM
Somerled said...: Yep, that's a mistake. He should definitely have done the debate. Yes, he ROYALLY hosed that last one. Outperforms him? Only in that last one as far as I've seen. Ya gotta admit though it is pretty subjective. EXCEPT for the last one. Pew.; April 23, 2008 10:27 PM
Yamaka said...: ed,

Thanks for the link. Cheers.

_______________________________

I am NOT surprised that pastor Wright is used in NC, although I am surprised that Sen McCain wrote such a stern letter condemning the release of the Ad. This is a leader of the Republican Party talking to another Republican.

I don't know what Sen Clinton can do about it?

Right now Sen Obama and Clinton are in an adversarial relationship, until perhaps the Primary is over.

Any thing she says will not change the minds of the State Republican Party. I guess these things will take its own time to die down.

Sen Obama should keep saying what he has been saying: he was not aware of these comments when he was in the Church.

The question is how many NC people will believe what he says.

It is the credibility issue, which is very hard to deal with, IMHO.

Cheers.; April 23, 2008 10:36 PM
MMiller said...: Just like a date that never calls again, the people of PA were just not into Obama, no matter how much money he spent. It's as simple as that!
Democrats need to be smart about this. Remember our goal is to win in November. Has everyone forgotten what has happened the last 8 years! By letting the elections play out and having the super delegates refrain from making a choice we get to vet our own, toughen them up and have the strongest leader emerge to go up against McCain. Yes, even if we have to wait until the convention. Since when are the Dems afraid of a fight. If the super delegates throw their support to Obama now the grinding up of Obama by the Republicans will began immediately and he will surely lose. It's silly to blame Hillary for Obama’s failures and what has been exposed about Obama’s relationships. If it didn't happen now, by Fox News, you can bet it would happen right after Obama got the nomination. Fox News is enjoying a daily feast of Obama's connections and gaffs.
So please let’s be patient. Let the entire Democratic Party vote, let’s count Michigan and Florida somehow, and let's go into the general election united. Obama has many merits but this is not just about Obama and this is not Obama’s election to lose but rather it's the Democrats election to lose.; April 23, 2008 10:55 PM
Somerled said...: mmiller-

It's HANDS-OFF Hillary time in republican land. They KNOW they can beat her. They have had people doing research on her for YEARS. Waiting for her to get nominated. They will yank that fake grin off of her face and show the country how dishonest and slimy this woman really is. She WANTS to go work in the office where Bill got his pipes cleaned for god's sake! I would hope she got the nomination just to watch it, but then we'd get McCain. Hillary would have as much chance in the GE as she has in this primary. ZERO.; April 23, 2008 11:04 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: GatorsChampions4Ever -

You say that "[Obama] is currently up 5 in Indiana and 9 in North Carolina."

Care to qualify that?

You went to Real Clear Politics to get the information, but you didn't take care to notice the other information on those pages at that site:

For Indiana:
Downs Center says that Obama is UP five points (50-45);
LA Times/Bloomberg says Obama is UP five points (40-35)
Research 2000 says Obama is UP three points (49-36)

AND

The only poll showing Clinton up is SurveyUSA, which shows Clinton up by 16.

The average of the four polls shows Clinton up by 2.2.

Now for North Carolina:

Yes, SurveyUSA shows Obama up by 9, but there are three other polls on that page:
PPP shows Obama up by 25
InsiderAdvantage shows Obama up by 15
LA Times/Bloomberg shows Obama up by 13

The average of the four polls shows Obama up by 15.5.

You can stop claiming as FACT that Obama is up by 9 in North Carlina and Clinton is up by 5, because even the polls don't back you up.

Mike; April 23, 2008 11:11 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Gator-

Just to be fair about the numbers-

Obama's lead over Hillary in the NC polls:

RCP Average +15.5
Obama 51.3 Clinton 35.8

4/21 Survey USA Obama +9
4/20 PPP Obama +25
4/14 InsiderAdvan Obama +15

It looks much differently if you look at all the numbers and not just the lowest one.; April 23, 2008 11:12 PM
Somerled said...: Yep. And ya know what Gator. Yer a stand-up, reasonable guy. Nice having an INTELLIGENT discussion. Thanks .

TEBOW '09; April 23, 2008 11:15 PM
MMiller said...: Somerled-

This is exactly the kind of negative energy that will cost us the election. Whether it's Clinton or Obama, let the strongest candidate emerge. I'm done taking sides for either one of them. The job they want to take on is way too important. I just want to make sure we win in November.; April 23, 2008 11:17 PM
Somerled said...: mmiller-

I'm with ya on the winning in November thing, but THAT's the problem. He HAS emerged.; April 23, 2008 11:20 PM
MMiller said...: Somerled-

Apparently your still too much in love to be reasonable. He obviously didn't emerge as the strongest in PA. I'm just saying....; April 23, 2008 11:24 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: My thoughts on 'debates'

1) Senator Obama is not running to win a prize for 'best debater'

2) There have been 21 debates - and we have heard enough about the Clinton healthcare plan.

3) Senator Obama gets more 'issue' related information out to the public during his rallies, townhalls, his website, and in interviews than he does in a debate.

4) The last debate was very disrespectful to Obama and I don't think Hillary did very well (the first part of the debate SHE looked down a lot and stuttered).

5) Debates are geared for the networks to gain ratings and sell advertising time and are not really interested in a civil intellectual conversation/debate on issues that have not been discussed previously. Viewers seem to watch the debates to see if there will be a cat fight - and that is not a good thing when a candidate is trying to promote unity.

In conclusion, I think that Obama's time will be better spent meeting with the people of North Carolina and Indiana face to face.; April 23, 2008 11:33 PM
Somerled said...: Hillary is down by 153 ELECTED delegates with only 408 left available and *I'M* being unresonable... YOU are one funny guy!!! ...or girl(?).

This country is ready to ecet a woman. As soon as one seeks the nomination, we'll vote for her.; April 23, 2008 11:35 PM
Somerled said...: No, I can spell fine... I just can't type worth a damn.; April 23, 2008 11:37 PM
billyjay66 said...: Yamaka

About your fuzzy math that Michigan legimately closed Clintons popular vote deficit by 328K - I guess you think if you repeat it often enough it will be true - good luck!! Even Terry McCauliffe backs away from that wild claim. To quote Hillary re: Michigan " It counts for nothing".

Thanks to your strange calculations I went back to check the weight of the caucus vote vs the primary vote. Up till now the average primary vote corresponds to 10,400 primary voters. The average caucus vote corresponds to 830 votes. So the ratio is 12.5 to 1.

Obama's total lead in caucus voting is 55,100 So that has a weighting of a 688,500 primary vote lead. Clinton hasn't even dented that lead.

Caucus votes don't count much to you or Hillary do they? The rules are delegates determines the winner. Just play by the rules. It will make you a better person.; April 23, 2008 11:38 PM
dwit said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 23, 2008 11:38 PM
Richard said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 23, 2008 11:40 PM
Richard said...: There seems to be a lot of magical thinking on this board (and in the Clinton camp at large). Wins in PA and OH are linked in people's minds to general election performance. People will popular vote into mattering. Yamaka even seems to believe that the almost assured victor in the Democratic primary harbors a secret desire to serve as vice president to a candidate he has soundly defeated.

I voted for Sen. Clinton in the Connecticut primary because I felt that she had the greater experience and grasp of policy, but I am open-minded enough to see the facts when they are laid out before me: Obama has an insurmountable delegate lead and nothing that has occurred in the past two months has even remotely suggested that the remaining superdelegates will split for Clinton; on the contrary, Sen. Obama has outperformed her 5:1 on new superdelegate commitments since Super Tuesday. And by my calculations Clinton will need to obtain the votes of at least 63% of the remaining uncommitted delegates. Not going to happen.

I do feel for Sen. Clinton; she thought this was "her year" and that she was destined for the Presidency (a kind of magical thinking itself). But no amount of wishing will make Hillary Clinton President in 2009. Sorry.; April 23, 2008 11:42 PM
dwit said...: About the RNC attack ad...

of course McCain will publicly distance himself from this. Its a classic case of "good cop/bad cop". Remember, just such attacks were used against him by Uncle Karl in 2000 in the very same state. It makes him look "presidential" to rebuke such chicanery.

Karl Rove type stuff. launch negative ads to put doubt in the minds of voters. Once its out it can't be refuted. The doubt is already well embedded. This tactic was very effective for Clinton in Pennsylvania.

I didn't really think it would work, but the demographics of Pennsylvania are perfect for just such tactics.

NC should be less susceptible given its relatively educated population (%24 w/bachelor degree or higher). Also, only 12% of the population is over 65.

Unfortunately, racism does run deep and not even the most progressive -minded will openly admit to reservations on the subject.; April 23, 2008 11:42 PM
dwit said...: CLINTON TO KEEP US TIED UP IN THE MIDDLE EAST FOREVER!

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, said that the U.S. "should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel. Of course I would make it clear to the Iranians that an attack on Israel would incur massive retaliation from the United States, but I would do the same with other countries in the region."

Now, how is she going to pay for her health care plan again? How about the much needed infrastructure upgrades? Where is she going to find money for an alternative fuels program?

Sounds a little like Baghdad Johnny to me. More war, more terror, less money for domestic programs.; April 23, 2008 11:50 PM
Unknown said...: Unfortunately some intelligent people are falling for the popular vote trap- it is utterly irrelevant who wins the popular vote. Chuck Todd even got sucked into this nonsense yesterday. Not so sure that tool isn't on the Clinton payroll.

Obama leads by around 161 pledged delegates even after PA. I estimate he will lose approximately 8 delegates in the upcoming races...he will get around 40 of the additional add-ons, and conservatively at least 10 will vote for the pledged delegate leader (in reality it is likely over 100)- so Obama needs only around 40 additional super delegates to win this.....When you consider there are over 100 from Obama states that are not committed, then he needs only to win around 40% of these super delegates to win this....Clinton has been winning zero super delegates from Obama states of late so this is a certainty....not to mention- that there are 27 uncommitted house members from districts won by Obama...who have no plausible reason not to endorse him....

As an additional buffer- Clinton has at least 15-20 black superdelegates- some of which will not tolerate it if Obama is getting jobbed...

Lets face it- this is over- and the Clintons have just suckered millions of dumb Americans into paying back their debt....; April 24, 2008 12:05 AM
dwit said...: caesar,

I know its easy to get down about this whole thing, when the media seems to be in Clinton's corner. It just what they do. If they can keep this thing going, they have something to sell the public. Its the ultimate reality show.

They will keep this primary alive as long as they can. And with Baghdad John or Haditha Hillary in office, they will have decades of war and terror to report.

Its all about the bottom line, baby!; April 24, 2008 12:17 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Here's a link to a 'perfect' article regarding why Obama is winning and why he will win:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_knockout_obama_will_win_on.html; April 24, 2008 12:43 AM
dwit said...: Oh, and...

HILLARY CLINTON
Size of Donations

$200 and Under $47,375,771

$200.01 - $499 $11,376,977
$500 - $999 $12,238,022
$1000 - $1999 $26,281,526

$2000 and Over $77,413,699

PAC $1,221,842

BARACK OBAMA
Size of Donations

$200 and Under $102,217,130

$200.01 - $499 $22,172,143
$500 - $999 $20,351,097
$1000 - $1999 $31,362,120

$2000 and Over $61,543,167

PAC $250; April 24, 2008 1:39 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Richard and dwit nc has 24% with bachelor degree or better well guess what so does Pa. Now for the superdelegates this site has Clinton 23 sd's and obama 38 sd's. now I might be off 1 or 2 but that sure isn't 5 to 1.This has been since march the 7th.I don't know what the count is between Feb. 23 to march 7th but I doubt that it's 5 to 1. So get real. Also someone on here said that he was 6 or 7 hundred thousand votes ahead of Clinton that is such BS. You're not counting tx. are you because you can't count votes twice.You obama supporters are a joke it seems the more stuff comes out about obama the more you dig your heals in just to prove a point to hell with it if he destroys America you could care less just as long as he wins that is SICK but I think people that support him that there is something wrong with them anyway.I know what you are thinking Hillary is such a liar stop right there obama is the biggest liar. GO HILLARY ALL THE WAY TO THE WHITE HOUSE !!!! Jean; April 24, 2008 1:42 AM
Aunt Jean said...: dwit on your list you've got obama only getting $250 from pac you really don't believe that crap do you that is so funny. lol lol lol lol That is where he is getting most of his money besides the crooks he associates with. lol lol lol. thanks for giving me a good laugh. Jean; April 24, 2008 1:46 AM
dwit said...: For those of you who missed the last post and its source...

http://www.fec.gov/

HILLARY CLINTON
Size of Donations

$200 and Under $47,375,771

$200.01 - $499 $11,376,977
$500 - $999 $12,238,022
$1000 - $1999 $26,281,526

$2000 and Over $77,413,699

PAC $1,221,842

BARACK OBAMA
Size of Donations

$200 and Under $102,217,130

$200.01 - $499 $22,172,143
$500 - $999 $20,351,097
$1000 - $1999 $31,362,120

$2000 and Over $61,543,167

PAC $250; April 24, 2008 1:57 AM
dwit said...: Oh, and did I mention...

CLINTON TO KEEP US TIED UP IN THE MIDDLE EAST FOREVER!

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, said that the U.S. "should be looking to create an umbrella of deterrence that goes much further than just Israel. Of course I would make it clear to the Iranians that an attack on Israel would incur massive retaliation from the United States, but I would do the same with other countries in the region."

Now, how is she going to pay for her health care plan again? How about the much needed infrastructure upgrades? Where is she going to find money for an alternative fuels program?

Sounds a little like Baghdad Johnny to me. More war, more terror, less money for domestic programs.; April 24, 2008 2:08 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Everyone of you cult followers of obama white hating bigot are unbelieveable even you leah. How you could follow someone that hates whites is beyond me. Well he doesn't have me fooled for one minute. I would rather have McCain in there for a term before obama and that is saying a lot because I don't really like him and I think he will do some harm to this country but I also believe if obama gets in there that he will destroy the fundamental's of America.All the things that are coming out on obama it's like you are blind and deaf to it. I will never in a million years understand how you could lower yourself to his level and want him the white hating bigot for your president. If by some chance he gets there even though I don't think for a second he has a chance in hell I will never consider him my president so I will never vote for him. Go ahead and live in a fools world because more will come out about that SPOS you just watch and see.I keep expecting everyone to get on their knees and start bowing to him. What a site that would be lol lol lol lol lol lol .Jean a smart Clinton supporter one who is not blind or deaf to her faults which is nothing conpared to the bigot and still want her for my president because she cares for us and AMERICA; April 24, 2008 3:24 AM
Florida-girl said...: I am new here, but I just read over 400 posts, before commenting.

We need to unite, if we want to see a democrat in the Whitehouse. Some people have been downright negative and ill-informed on their posts. It really saddens me to see this. Edwards bowed out gracefully, so people voting for him would vote for either Hillary or Barack. John Stewart joked about Obama taking his oath to serve, and Hillary popping out of his chest, insisting she won, (I actually found that very humorous).

Also to Jean (no offense intended) you should not accuse people of being a biggot, that shows both a mean-spirit and a pretty un-educated view of the world.

Also, I am a Floridian and to have our delegates seated as they are would be a farce, the only fair thing to do, would be a total revote (penalize us with 1/2 delagates only, for the move up) and that is not going to happen.
Danielle; April 24, 2008 3:49 AM
dwit said...: Jean,

I'm sure Hillary is very proud to have you as a supporter. I'll be sure to forward your sentiments to her campaign.

I think this is my favorite part,

"I will never in a million years understand how you could lower yourself to his level and want him the white hating bigot for your president. If by some chance he gets there even though I don't think for a second he has a chance in hell I will never consider him my president..."

Probably should forward it to the Klan too. I'm sure they'll want to contact you for contributions to the monthly newsletter.; April 24, 2008 4:02 AM
dwit said...: Welcome Florida Girl!

Which post was your favorite? I kind of prefer the long rambling, pointless, bigoted types.; April 24, 2008 4:48 AM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: Wow. Lots of responses for me. I see i'm popular. Alright, here I go.

mikeinmaryland. I merely said Senator Obama was up by 5 points in Indiana and 9 points in North Carolina because those were the most recent polls(April 21st.) I look a the date more than anything. Your polls are a compilation that includes polls from the 19th and 20th, and while those are recent, those aren't the MOST recent. Looking at it by averaging it out is perfectly fine, but with the dynamics of this race, it might be better to go by date rather than average. You quoted me as saying that Senator Obama was up by 5 in Indiana and 9 in North Carolina, which is accurate, yet you also say at the end of your comment that I say Senator Clinton is up by 5 in Indiana. Obviously, you mistyped, but hey we're all allowed every once in a while.

leah. Ah, you are my favorite blogger. Your presentation of the polls and numbers was outstanding. I can see why somerled said you were cool. I totally agree with him. My response to your comment is pretty much the same as my comments to mikeofmaryland, except you didn't mistype.

somerled. If that was a compliment, then I thank you for the kind words. I do my best to present the case for Senator Clinton, while remaining fair and objective(I sound like the FOX News Channel) to Senator Obama. As for Tebow: I'm glad he's back, I think he'll win his 2nd Heisman and have another terrific year. If the defense grows up(read: Don't blow a 10 point lead at LSU!),we'll have an outstanding year, but this is a topic we'll discuss at a later date.
Tebow '09 indeed.

If your comments were sarcastic...........well, normally I can figure out whether they are genuine or a backhanded compliment. You did such a fantastic job of phrasing it that I am truly stumped. You have real talent. Never stop blogging, my friend.

Well, it's late so i'll be back later to address leah's ''debate'' comments.; April 24, 2008 4:48 AM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: Welcome, Danielle(aka Florida Girl). Thanks for visitng the site. We have some really outstanding bloggers. Comment us again real soon; April 24, 2008 4:50 AM
Florida-girl said...: I just wrote a long comment but I don't see it posted ...but thank you for welcoming me...so warmly (smile); April 24, 2008 5:10 AM
Amot said...: Danielle, when you write a long comment you often have the word verification changed and when you try to publish it asks you to enter a new word. Until you see 'your comment was saved' in green letters at the top of the page and no text in the comments box you are not done.

Dwit, I know I started the Iran theme, but don't spam it, please!

Recent polls show that hatred between supporters has increased. While few weeks ago most Obama supporters were willing to vote Hillary at fall, now a large portion of them say no. That is partially due to Clinton herself but also to the negative campaign Obama started. On the other hand she put him into no-win situation: either start negative and prove he can counter, but lose his aura of positivism; or not counter, look week and give her the argument that she is more electable because her supporters won't vote for him while his would vote for her. I am glad most people understand that situation and don't consider him running too negative. However, IMHO many Obama's will really not vote Hillary if she steals the nomination, and those numbers grow fast. And it has almost nothing to do with race and gender. Every single day we realize that both candidates differ a lot. On health, on trade, on foreign policy, on judgement. Sure they are both better than Bush and McCain, but that is not enough!

BTW while I said Clinton made a huge gaffe with Iran I still believe McCain's saying he doesn't know a thing about economy is much worse. You don't go at war every single day, but you practise economy every minute. I can't understand why any blue-collar worker would trust such a man, so this group will switch to Obama at the very second they understand how ignorant on economy McCain is and that will be the first presidential debate!

Yamaka, you really need a shrink!; April 24, 2008 6:31 AM
dwit said...: Amot,

But "See, in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda."—”

It makes perfect sense, Wright?; April 24, 2008 6:41 AM
ed iglehart said...: Yamaka (03:37)

Pastor Wright's remarks as featured in the very selective out-of-context excerpts shown so often, should be seen IN CONTEXT.

There is ample opportunity to check out the Whole Man, if you can be bothered.

I have done so, and can only say I wouldn't be the least bit ashamed to attend any service at Trinity. The sermons are excellently constructed lessons in LOVE.

Check it out, please.

xx
ed; April 24, 2008 6:53 AM
Amot said...: Dwit, I know this method and it has its reasons. To be honest I have posted at least dozen times on FL&MI theme telling the same things with different words.

Do you know, in a fantasy world I would be glad if Clinton was the GOP choice for president against Obama for the Dems - she made so many gaffes that it would take a child to create a winning strategy against her!
I like Dems because they don't like war. Hillary sounds to me less Dem than ever after the Iranian gaffe.
One more thing - I remember there was discussion few days ago why is Reagan rated so high in the list of successfull presidents. I can give you the answer - he ended effectively the Cold War. As a result Bill had 90's peacefull and prosperous... It will take a full term for Obama to stop the recesion. Yet, he won't be able to do this if USA are at war. Let's be true to ourselves - a new war, be it in Iran or somewhere else, will make the economy colapse!; April 24, 2008 7:09 AM
ed iglehart said...: Jean,

"obama white hating bigot"

EVIDENCE?

Read this:

"I do have a bit of personal context. About 26 years ago, I became engaged to my wife, an African-American. She was at that time and remains a member of Trinity. Somewhere between the ring and the altar, my wife had second thoughts and broke off the engagement. Her decision was grounded in race: So committed to black causes, the daughter of parents subjected to unthinkable prejudice over the years, an "up-and-coming" leader in the young black community, how could she marry a white man?

"Rev. Wright, whom I had met only in passing at the time and who was equally if not more outspoken about "black" issues than he is today, somehow found out about my wife's decision. He called and asked her to "drop everything" and meet with him at Trinity. He spent four hours explaining his reaction to her decision. Racial divisions were unacceptable, he said, no matter how great or prolonged the pain that caused them. God would not want us to assess or make decisions about people based on race. The world could make progress on issues of race only if people were prepared to break down barriers that were much easier to let stand.

"Rev. Wright was pretty persuasive; he presided over our wedding a few months later. In the years since, I have watched in utter awe as Wright has overseen and constructed a support system for thousands in need on the South Side that is far more impressive and effective than any governmental program possibly could approach. And never in my life have I been welcomed more warmly and sincerely than at Trinity. Never."

White-hating??? Cow Poo!; April 24, 2008 7:14 AM
Amot said...: Ed, actually I don't know about anything wrong that the reverent said. Why is this histery about 'Damn America!'? And all this scrap about patriotism? A pin doesn't mean you love your country! 'Damn America' doesn't mean you want to curse it! Is there something wrong with the values of USA citizens? Wrightgate is totally off-topic! Ruined health system, bad education, recesion, war, - those are the important topics!!!
I still can't believe that in 2004 Bush went to Ohio and told them: 'I can't help the economy, I can't make education and health system better, I can make the war last forever; but I have good family values and I am against gay marriage. Vote me!' And they bought that scrap... Maybe USA doesn't deserve Obama and his honesty!
I read someone's thoughts (I think it was the shrink-needing guy) about Obama being Kenyan and not American. How many of you have their grandfathers and grandmothers born in the USA? And what about your grand-grandparents? Now think are you not proud with your heritage? USA was made on the base of unity - unity of states, unity of races, unity of religions! And in this race there is only one person who is not only talking, but practising unity! Vote him!; April 24, 2008 7:39 AM
countjellybean said...: I took the contribution numbers provided by dwit and calculated some estimates of the "average" donation. My numbers are not precise since I don't have complete information.

Clinton:

$0 to $200 donors: $47,375,771. Using the mid-interval value of $100, that's 473,758 donors. Or, using $80 per donor, that's 592,197 donors.

$200 to $500: $11,376,977.
Using the mid-interval value of $350, that's 32,506 donors.

$500 to $1000: $12,238,022.
17,521 donors @ $750 per donor.

$1000 to $2000: $26,281,526.
25,805 donors @ $1500 per donor.

> $2000: $77,413,699.
Since the internal is unlimited, there is no mid-interval.
Assuming that all of these donors gave @2000, that's 38,707 donors. Or, assume just one donor who gave all $77 million.

Total: $174,685,995. The number of donors is between 540,000 to 697,000. The mean average donation is between $251 and $323. The median average is somewhere in the $0 to $200 interval, and is probably less than $100.

Obama:

Total donations is $237,645,657. Number of donors is between 1,133,000 and 1,420,000. The mean average donation is between $167 and $210. The median average is also somewhere in the $0 to $200 interval and is also probably less than $100.

Again, these numbers are just estimates. You can see that the results are pretty sensitive to the average donation in the $0 to $200 range.

.....

Leah @ 2.05 on 4.23:
Electoral votes has absolutely nothing to do with this democratic nomination race.

I must respectfully disagree with this statement. I believe it is an acceptable argument to say that a superdelegate should vote for Clinton if she has a better chance than Obama to beat McCain in the Electoral College. I would definitely be interested in seeing polling data that shows how each candidate matches up against McCain in each state.; April 24, 2008 7:50 AM
Richard said...: Aunt Jean, I apologize; I mistakenly used Feb 3 numbers for Barack Obama and February 10 numbers for Hillary Clinton, a simple error in reading the SD history chart. Hillary Clinton received 26 net superdelegates in the week immediately following Super Tuesday that I inadvertently omitted from my calculations. Even with those delegates, however, since Feb 3 Clinton has netted 57 delegates to Obama's 125, which is over 2:1. Since Feb 10, Clinton has gained 31 to Obama's 103, greater than 3:1.

I almost didn't bother to respond to you because I find your racist rant in a later post despicable. I only did so because I felt the need to correct the error in my calculations. I shall not be dignifying anything you say in the future with a response.; April 24, 2008 7:55 AM
Amot said...: Rasmussen have such results - state-by-state. Some of those are off-date, but most give a good picture of what we should expect!

CJB, you are good with numbers, make a report how are they doing now compared with McCain. One thing that comes in my mind, is that Rasmussen show IA going Obama with big probabily (not if Clinton is the nominee). Same is CO and other states...; April 24, 2008 8:02 AM
countjellybean said...: Amot:
Ed, actually I don't know about anything wrong that the reverent said. Why is this histery about 'Damn America!'? And all this scrap about patriotism? A pin doesn't mean you love your country! 'Damn America' doesn't mean you want to curse it! ... Maybe USA doesn't deserve Obama and his honesty!

I agree. Wright's sermon was a more energetic version of Lincoln's 2nd inaugural address.; April 24, 2008 8:02 AM
Amot said...: CJB, I will trade a link on Lincoln's address for this one:

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_presidential_race_state_by_state_snapshot

Looking forward to read your analysis! One thing I have learned from this election is that in USA one can't trust pollsters!; April 24, 2008 8:29 AM
vwis said...: HRC has more lives than the walking dead. It is absolutely scary. She does not have to respect the DNC leadership, because the Clintons view themselves as the leaders. The media does not want the Clintons out. If Hillary wins the media knows it can walk all over them. Remember the reporter that said "HRC & Bill were pimping Chelsea to the SDs." That was totally uncalled for even BHO with daughters cannot stand for that. They always report #s more favorable for the Clintons. The race in PA was won with a 9.2% victory (the rule in math is less than .5 is rounded down). Of which 4% are Reps, ultra-conservatives that don't like McCain, but still want Reps in power in Nov. That means her actually victory was 5%. The same as most of the polls predicted. But, with 5% she would have been pressured out.
So how does BHO & the DNC deliver the final blow. He has tried with money, but the Clintons have deep pockets and too much damage will be done along way. Her strategy now is since she can't make the math work she has to make BHO unelectable in Nov. So she can comeback in 4 yrs instead of 8, because she is already finding the rigors of a long campaign as hard. Did you notice how pastie and tired she looked days before the debate? She took a day or 2 off to rest up before the debate. There is one weakness. Also, at 60 people have senior moments as Bill referred to in his defense of her on Bosnia.; April 24, 2008 8:49 AM
MSMWatch2008 said...: Leah said
... And why is it that Clinton can not win caucuses but she can win when electronic voting machines are being used?
~~~~~~

If you REALLY want to know, it's because (using WA as an example) about 70% of the electorate is not able to vote because of the restraints imposed by a caucus process. And BO's demographic fits better into those restraints.

Real democratic . . . NOT!; April 24, 2008 9:07 AM
ed iglehart said...: Count Jellybean, Your Grace,

State-by-state polling comparisons.

Quite interesting.

xx
ed; April 24, 2008 9:31 AM
Amot said...: Next in line - Syria and North Korea... Intelligence will deliver report to the Congress about nuclear programs in both countries. Maybe Hillary will invade them since she hates nukes so much! Well, McCain will definetely invade (no 'maybe'). Where I am they say USA is going to start a new war because that would help GOP to stay in the WH.

Also - Israel is expanding their territory saying they have a letter from Bush administration allowing and supporting such enlargement. Of course, Rice denies! But we have a saying - there is no smoke without fire. We see the smoke, let's locate the fire!; April 24, 2008 10:22 AM
vwis said...: You can wipe both of them JMc and Hillary. The economy is bad, we have 2 wars, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, third world development (how can Americans live on .35 cents and hour or less), the green house effect, an many unknowns.) The next 4 yrs. calls for someone able to produce everyday and that is only BHO.; April 24, 2008 10:54 AM
RobH said...: Yamaka:

So, the reason HRC shouldn't repudiate the ad is because:

"Any thing she says will not change the minds of the State Republican Party"

How about she repudiate it because she's a human, or at least as civil as John McCain?; April 24, 2008 11:25 AM
RobH said...: "Work hard and follow the rules"

Outplan
Outorganize
Outmanage
Out work

More delegates
More votes
More states
More participation

It's really simple when you think about it.; April 24, 2008 11:27 AM
vwis said...: The other thing they need to do is to use her own words (and Bill's). The same way the media does. The other day she joked to supporters "tell them that she's really nice or she's not that bad". This shows her own assessment about herself (hard to argue with). It also shows her willingness to spin things differently then everyone else which leads to her next weakness. She lacks credibility and a majority of people don't trust her.; April 24, 2008 11:28 AM
jpsedona said...: RobH,

I think there's corollary to your post on winning, it's how to lose when you were the presumptive nominee:

Ignore planning
Ignore execution
Ignore signed pledges
Ignore caucuses
Ignore reality

Fewer wins
Fewer delegates
Fewer votes
More excuses
More spin
More baggage than US Airways; April 24, 2008 11:38 AM
ed iglehart said...: Some brilliant examples of participative democracy, thanks to MoveOn

McCain is more civil than HRC, and, as Rob notes, Obama works harder and better - simple.

xx
ed

P.S. As to Israeli expansionism, what else is new? Read the roadmap and the reservations.

Nuff said!; April 24, 2008 11:40 AM
Aunt Jean said...: vwis I really don't know where you obama supporters get that Hillary only won by 9% I guess you don't know how to count she won by 9.567 and obama got 45.433%. now there were a few votes still not counted [less than 1% I gave everyone of those to obama he still has less than 45.5% so Hillary won by 10%. You just can't stand it that she won by double digets. About wright I never said that he didn't do some good works I just think that deep down he hates whites. As far as that story about the white man and black woman I don't believe it. If you look on the site about the church whites are not welcome it is a BLACK FOR BLACKS. Me not voting for him has nothing to do with his race I have 2 nephews that are black and yes I'm proud to say that they are my nephews and I have friends that are black but to me they are just people thee is a difference even in their eyes as to what they are and what obama is.I will pray everyday for obama supporters because there is something wrong with them if they believe that that man is for whites or for that matter for America. He is only for Africa wake up before it's to late I'm just wanting to save AMERICA because I'm proud to be one. Jean; April 24, 2008 11:45 AM
jpsedona said...: Gator,

I tried to explain to you about outliers in the polls yesterday, but you insist on using the latest poll, no matter the reliability.

So, what happens if ARG or some other outlier comes in with Hillary being down by 27 in NC? Has Obama tripled his lead in NC? Has she dropped precipitously in her ability to win? Of course not. The outliers are meaningless. Clinton's campaign doesn't want anyone to view the polls as reliable (considering that she's down 10% in National polls about the Dem nominee).

The RCP average at the state and national level are generally pretty good. The only caveat is when they include stale data.

At this juncture, the effects from Hillary's win in PA have not factored into NC & IN polls. But you know there's going to be HEAVY polling over the next week+.

Stay tuned...; April 24, 2008 11:45 AM
vwis said...: Robh,
Well said! And BHO present tactic.

One thing BHO needs to correct in Indiana. Don't move on so quickly and say you don't expect to win in PA. Some of his voters were discouraged and did not go to the polls. They felt like their vote didn't matter. They are looking for leadership. He is a young stallion getting steady on his feet. This campaign will strengthen him. HRC is only strengthening him. Her should send her a thank you.; April 24, 2008 11:54 AM
Aunt Jean said...: There is one more thing leah asked why clinton cannot win caucases one reason. There is so many mothers that have little ones can you see having them at a caucas for hours and then there is older people like my mother that can't sit there for hours it's to hard on her. Well that is a lot of hillary's base vote. Now for obama young kids and blacks a lot of them don't have much to do I'm not saying all. That is why.A caucas system is totally unfair and should be done away with. As far as Leah saying that clinton has something shady going on with voting machine is very insulting but that is where I have a big problem it's alright to be insulting with that comment but when someone else says an insulting remark about obama you get your panties in a knot. She doesn't have to mess with machines she gets her votes fair and square now obama that might be a different story .GO HILLARY!!! Jean; April 24, 2008 12:00 PM
Yamaka said...: Good Morning Fellow Democrats.

Another beautiful day in Houston
___________________________________

ANOTHER CONVERSATION WITH SEN BHO Jr:

- Good Morning Senator. Assalamu Alaikum, how are you, Sir?

- Alaikum Assalam, Yamaka, What's up, my man?

- Good, Senator. It appears you don't buy my argument that you should take the VP, and save you and the Democratic Party from the impending Disaster of 21st Century? What's going on, Senator?

- Well Yamaka, sorry Yama! Things have taken a point of no-return, as some of my lousy handlers tell me, meaning there is no way we adjust our course of self-destruction! We have to go all the way till June 3 with all the "toe to toe fight" and tear each other apart, and finally both of us will lose big time in the Fall GE!!! That's our Destiny, written all over our heads!

- Too bad, Senator. So, you refuse to be the Master of Your Own Destiny? Remember please, by calling off the contest now, and taking the VP position, HRC/BHO ticket will be unbeatable in the GE, and after 8 years your lock on the Throne is nearly guaranteed!

This I call the Win Win and Win for ALL: You, Clintons and the Democratic Party. We can have the WH and possibly the Congress for 16 straight years! We can achieve all our agenda:

Universal HealthCare, Ending the War and Economy. And more, and more.

- Well Yama, all possible. But what is not possible at this time is to break the lock of my Puppet Masters and Axelrod on my throat! They are all over me. Axelrod is the most unscrupulous person I have ever met, and the Puppet Masters are the BigMoneyBags the Money Launderers and Frank Lucases of our Society.

They want me to get self-destruct, just to save their ego and pride, the BS arguments.

-Too bad Senator. I thought you can use your God given charisma and word-power to change your own handlers' mind! But, now the campaign is going to be very very nasty. Did you see the RNC Ad in NC? One of the King Cobra's is going to bite you in NC, the one State I thought you will win for sure in the future! Now that is not possible! Oh, I forgot maybe you will take the SD., and all others will go to HRC. Do you understand the consequences? It is like she is taking a lead on Popular Votes and the delegates when you count ALL votes, and seat all delegates!

Coming from behind, she is going to win the Nomination. Is this not like NCAA/NBA/FIFA Finals, when the Under Dog suddenly comes from behind in the last few minutes, and win the Trophy?

- Well, yes, I can lose very well. I like your Sports Analogy. We have seen this game hundreds of times: underdogs working very hard in the last 5 min and take the Trophy! Sen Clinton is working very hard, and we are losing our arguments, and we show signs of vulnerability: like I don't want to Debate! Oh, I hate Debates, I lost most/all of them in the past 4 months. Yes, I cannot win a debate, have no skill/experience and have FAR LEFT Ideology. How could I legitimately ask for the Nomination? No, it is NOT fair. But, again it is our Destiny, to go through the Motion and get decimated at the end. Good luck, to Sen Clinton, who deserves because she is a Genuine American Classic with a Message of REAL CHANGE and she debates very well.

Yama, it's all over. Let's talk about you. How old are you? What's your stinking Profession, if I can ask you?

- Well, Sen. I am 12 years older than you, I am a Master Shrink curing the Conflicted Souls like your Children who maniacally follow you to Gayana! Also, I am a research scientist in neurobiology!
It's just a minor point in our discussion. Sen I am worried about you and your kids, Malia and Sasha! Won't you give them the HOPE that one day they become the Woman POTUS that we need to break open the Glass Ceiling erected against women in the past 50,000 years?

-Yama, thanks for your concern. But I don't like women that much. My legacy, my ego and money more important than Malia or Sasha! That's my current thinking. Oh, Yama, I get headache! I need my nicotine shot. My brain is already cooked up! I am an addict. I cannot think straight. Leave me alone, Yama, the God of Death.

- Sorry, Senator. I will leave you alone now. But you need to bring some sanity in the thinking of your Children, the stupid immature crowd maniacally follow you everywhere. You said one day you will take them as their Piper, and drown them near a Sea in Gayana. Please do it. Insha Allah, we will meet again. Thanks, God Bless You.

- Very well, Yama. I will junk my Children one day in a deadly Sea. Insha Allah, we will meet again. You go and treat the lunatics, as the Master Shrink! Bye..Bye...
--------------------------------

Oh well, another Conversation with the Sen BHO Jr, the man who will lose the Nomination/the GE!!!

Cheers. Smile. :-) :-); April 24, 2008 12:02 PM
ed iglehart said...: Jean,

"I just think that deep down he hates whites."

Everybody's entitled to an opinion, even if there's NO EVIDENCE.; April 24, 2008 12:03 PM
jpsedona said...: Aall,

As for the debate in NC, Obama had agreed to the first date of the debate but Clinton did not. As for the second proposed date, Clinton agreed and Obama did not.

Consider this:
Hillary is short on cash and likely to loose in NC
Hillary has a decent chance for victory in IN
Hillary needs to win one of these two states to remain viable

How can she stretch her $$ and reduce Obama's margin of victory without spending a cent? A debate in NC.

Why would Obama like to avoid a debate in NC? Aside from a disasterous last debate, his ability to widen the margin in NC is probably minimal.; April 24, 2008 12:04 PM
vwis said...: Jean, I got the number from the PA state polling results listed earlier. 4 precincts still outstanding last I checked. Did you hear Hardballs Chris M on April 22. Apologize to the viewers because, the media has mislead the people that there is no way the #s can add up for Hillary. I am really not a BHO supporter. I do not have a horse in the race. I am for the DNC winning in Nov. I am tired to the Reps errosion of the middle class. The working poor are becoming poorer and the middle class is becoming the working poor. Only the top 3% are doing better. The greedy always win strategy that drives oil and commodities up, up, up and away.; April 24, 2008 12:11 PM
Yamaka said...: Jean:

I tip my hat to you, Ma'am.

You are right on the money, as always.

God Bless You.

Cheer. :-); April 24, 2008 12:14 PM
RobH said...: Hey JP, funny respionse and chck the similarity to an alternate version of my earlier post, that I had considered putting out there:

“Work hard and follow the rules”
(“we’re entitled –rewrite the rules”)

Outplan
(no Plan B)
Outorganize
(no caucus strategy)
Outmanage
(fire the manager)
Outwork
(spin the outcome)

More delegates
(less delegates)
More votes
(less votes)
More states
(less states)
More participation
(more machine); April 24, 2008 12:14 PM
jpsedona said...: Interesting story on FIRSTREAD about congressman Altmire and Doyle of PA. Both are uncommitted SD's. Both a declining to pledge support for Clinton at this time.

What's interesting is that results from their districts. Per NBC, Altmire's district went 2-1 for Clinton (66%-34%). Voters also went for Clinton in Doyle's district.

Interestingly they both would vote for Obama if he leads in pledged delegates and popular vote at the end of the primaries.; April 24, 2008 12:16 PM
ed iglehart said...: Jean,

with 99.51% reporting

CLINTON, HILLARY (DEM)

1,238,351 54.6%
OBAMA, BARACK (DEM)

1,030,805 45.4%

That's 9.2% lead, NOT 10%

Smile!!!
xx
ed; April 24, 2008 12:17 PM
vwis said...: So, as JMc gets organize and will shortly announce his VP and looks pretty, the DNC is tearing it self up. It does not look good for them. The polls (pollster.com) show that the only one benefiting is the Reps. Chris M, Tim Russert, Rush and other Rep favoring media are offering Hillary advise. Should she take it?; April 24, 2008 12:17 PM
Yamaka said...: "How about she repudiate it because she's a human, or at least as civil as John McCain?"

She is human. She WILL repudiate it perhaps after June 3.

Remember, this a Primary Political Season!

They are after each other's carotid artery! That has been the American Politics, for the past 200 years!!

Be Real, not ideal.

Take a deep breath.

Anyway, we are careening towards a Mega Disaster, for BHO, for HRC and for the Democratic Party!

A potential Shakespearian Tragedy is unfolding before our teary eyes!

Smile and Vote for Hillary!; April 24, 2008 12:24 PM
jpsedona said...: Here's an interesting story from TPM:

Hillary Backer Bayh Pressing House Members Not to Endorse At All

It indicates that Hillary's campaign is worried about more SD's from Indiana jumping on the Obama bandwagon. Apparently, Sen. Bayh, Hillary's biggest supporter in IN, is encouraging fellow congressman to delay endorsing a candidate until after the primary and to go with the outcome of their districts to make up their minds. This in lieu of pressing them to support Hillary.

Not surprisngly, Sen. Bayh isn't changing from Clinton to Uncommitted.; April 24, 2008 12:26 PM
RobH said...: Yamaka,

"She is human. She WILL repudiate it perhaps after June 3."

Being human means doing the right thing. Repudiating something only when the time is right for you is the wrong thing, and less than civil.

How about being REAL an IDEAL at the some time.

Sorry, bub, you can't spin this one.; April 24, 2008 12:27 PM
jpsedona said...: RobH,

I like both versions of the posts. And talking about spin...

Observation: when Fox is in the bag for Hillary, there's something wrong. When Terry McAuliffe tells Fox that they've been "Fair & Balanced" in covering the Dem nomination, one needs to view it with a skeptical eye.; April 24, 2008 12:35 PM
RobH said...: Jean,

"I guess you don't know how to count she won by 9.567 and obama got 45.433%"

Is that the new math??

Umm, 45.433 plus 9.567 equals 55.0
So she got 55% and he got 45.433%, and the total votes cast was 100.433% ??

Try it this way:

100% less 45.433% equals 54.567%
So she got 54.567%
54.567 minus 45.433 equals 9.134

How's that 10 percent again???

"I guess you don't know how to count" too funny.

"People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones."; April 24, 2008 12:38 PM
jpsedona said...: vwis,

"Chris M, Tim Russert, Rush and other Rep favoring media are offering Hillary advise."

Is "Chris M", Chris Mathews? If so, to be factual, he's a dyed-in-the-wool Liberal who worked for Carter.

Tim Russert is also a former Dem opperative. He worked for Moynihan and Mario Cuomo in NY.

I don't know that their advise will help Hillary, but they are certainly not Republican leaning by any stretch.; April 24, 2008 12:41 PM
Aunt Jean said...: ed iglehart I am going by the cnn.com site it shows all the districts at 100% eccept Philadelphia at 99% well the way I figured it is you take 1% and how manvotes there was in that district x 1 but you are saying 99.51% is in so it will be half of what I got and like I said I gave them all to obama. The vote count is at Clinton 1260416 obama 1045910. That is what I have. Jean; April 24, 2008 12:41 PM
jpsedona said...: Jean / Ed,

Out of curiosity, do the votes that you are booth comparing include the absentee ballots from the districts?; April 24, 2008 12:45 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Wow - so many posts since I went to bed last night.

All I want to say is that I am NOT a bigot or racist and I do not hate white people or women - I AM A WHITE WOMAN!

I do not believe Senator Obama hates white people either. His mother was white, his grandmother that raised him was white, and he is 1/2 white.

The majority of people that have voted for Obama so far are white and apparently they do not think Obama is a bigot either - since he is NOT.

Some of the comments on this blog have became quite ridiculous, stereotyped, and offensive.; April 24, 2008 12:47 PM
jpsedona said...: RobH,

As far as repudiating the commercial, I don't see a reason that she should or needs to do that. Politics is a blood sport and it's not a game for the weak of heart.

In instances where there's mud being flung by Hillary & Obama, do the Dems really want or need comment from McCain?

If the GOP in NC is stupid enough to run ads like that, Hillary should stay out of it. If Dems run adds against each other, McCain should stay out of it.; April 24, 2008 12:50 PM
Yamaka said...: "Politics is a blood sport and it's not a game for the weak of heart."

Amen. Well said.

Although there may be a tinge of sugar-coated sarcasm for Idealists among us!

:-) :-); April 24, 2008 12:56 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: jpsedona. I was merely using that as a way of countering the fact you cannot use averages. In North Carolina, they are averaging the margins based on polling from the 14th of this month! Do any of us really think the race is the same now as it was 10 days ago?

Define stale data.

countjellybean:

Arkansas: Senator Clinton 51%,
Senator McCain 38%

Senator McCain 53%
Senator Obama 30%

California: Senator Clinton 49%
Senator McCain 41%

Senator Obama 51%
Senator McCain 42%

Colorado: Senator McCain 49%
Senator Clinton 40%

Senator Obama 46%
Senator McCain 43%

Florida: Senator McCain 44%
Senator Clinton 44%

Senator McCain 50%
Senator Obama 38%

Indiana: Senator McCain 53%
Senator Clinton 36%

Senator McCain 50%
Senator Obama 41%

Iowa: Senator McCain 49%
Senator Clinton 39%

Senator Obama 49%
Senator McCain 40%

Maine: Senator Clinton 47.5%
Senator McCain 42%

Senator Obama 51%
Senator McCain 39%

Michigan: Senator McCain 46%
Senator Clinton 40.5%

Senator Obama 42.5%
Senator McCain 41%

Minnesota: Senator McCain 47%
Senator Clinton 44%

Senator Obama 51%
Senator McCain 40%

Missouri: Senator McCain 48%
Senator Clinton 46%

Senator McCain 53%
Senator Obama 40%

Nevada: Senator McCain 46.5%
Senator Clinton 40.5%

Senator Obama 45.5%
Senator McCain 42%

New Hampshire: Senator McCain 47%
Senator Clinton 41%

Senator Obama 46%
Senator McCain 42%

New Jersey: Senator Clinton 46%
Senator McCain 43%

Senator Obama 45%
Senator McCain 44%

New Mexico: Senator McCain 47%
Senator Clinton 45%

Senator McCain 50%
Senator Obama 44%

North Carolina: Senator McCain 51%
Senator Clinton 38%

Senator McCain 48%
Senator Obama 43%

Ohio: Senator Clinton 48%
Senator McCain 43%

Senator McCain 45%
Senator Obama 43%

Oregon: Senator Clinton 48%
Senator McCain 45%

Senator Obama 51%
Senator McCain 42%

Pennsylvania: Senator Clinton 47.5%
Senator McCain 41%

Senator Obama 44%
Senator McCain 42%

Texas: Senator McCain 49%
Senator Clinton 42%

Senator McCain 48%
Senator Obama 42.5%

Virginia: Senator McCain 55.5%
Senator Clinton 38%

Senator McCain 52%
Senator Obama 43%

Washington: Senator McCain 45%
Senator Clinton 44%

Senator Obama 49%
Senator McCain 44%

West Virginia: Senator Clinton 47%
Senator McCain 42%

Senator McCain 53%
Senator Obama 35%

Wisconsin: Senator McCain 46%
Senator Clinton 44%

Senator Obama 47%
Senator McCain 43%

Nationally: Senator Clinton 46%
Senator McCain 46%

Senator Obama 46%
Senator McCain 45%

All polling data provided by Pollster.com

All polling data is based on averages in each state and nationally.

Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, National polls provided by RealClearPolitics.com

What I take from this information is that Senator McCain is performing shockingly better than I expected. This is probably due to no Democratic nominee. Here is the 2 keys the superdelegates have to think about:

1. Senator Obama does bring Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire into play, but Senator Clinton leads in Florida and Ohio. Do the superdelegates go for the candidate that brings traditional Republican states into play, or the candidate that wins Florida and Ohio, states that the Democrats must win?

2. Once a nominee is settled on, some of these states that show split results vs Senator McCain will turn the Democrats way(Missouri and Michigan come to mind.)

What surprises me is how well Senator McCain is performing in New Jersey against either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama.

Finally, let's look at the Electoral College totals based on these polls, while giving Senator Clinton electoral votes in New York, Senator Obama electoral votes in Illinois and Senator McCain electoral votes in Arizona.

Electoral College:
Senator McCain 199 Electoral Votes
Senator Clinton 164 Electoral Votes

Senator Obama 198 Electoral Votes
Senator Obama 157 Electoral Votes

There you go countjellybean. State-by-state polling.; April 24, 2008 12:59 PM
ed iglehart said...: You're running Obama against himself???

Maybe it's time for a re-visit?

xx
ed; April 24, 2008 1:16 PM
ed iglehart said...: You've got Obama running against himself!

Time to revisit this?
xx
ed; April 24, 2008 1:18 PM
jpsedona said...: Gator,

I agree that the results from PA are not factored into the polls for NC & IN. Given that a week ia a lifetime in politics, I would say that a two week period for an average is max.

I am wondering whether the 9-10% margin for Hillary now raises the bar of expectation for NC & IN. I think it would be safe to say that loosing by 20% and 20+ delegate margin in NC can't really be spun well, So, in order to press the "tide is turning" strategy, she has to win convincingly in IN. If she nets a small win in IN and the delegate totals for PA, NC & IN reflect a net wash, it will be difficult to hold back some of the SD's.

I think that if she loses IN, she might stay in the race if it's close, but using the popular vote strategy, she will potentially be back to where she was before PA.

I think that we will start seeing daily tracking polls and pre-spin from both campaigns.

As Mike Vick might say, you got to love a dog fight.; April 24, 2008 1:22 PM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

"She can announce that she commits to asking Obama to be VP if she gets the nomination. Change all her signs to Clinton/Obama)8. Start defending his weakness and promoting his strengths.
This would not win over his hardcore supporters, but would greatly influence Supers."

I think the idea of changing all of her campaign signs to Clinton/Obama '08 is a fascinating idea. WITHOUT ASKING HIM FIRST.

Can you imagine how much news covearge that type of move would get? I think the only response from the Obama campaign and endorsers would be outright indignation and anger. If done correctly, she could really put him in a box. Of course it would be a desperate move that would ultimately be viewed with a level of contempt by some uncommitted delegates; others might support it. Fun thought to think about...; April 24, 2008 1:32 PM
Richard said...: Gator: I don't believe for a second that Clinton or Obama will win Florida. Republican corruption runs just too deep in that state, and I think it is likely that McCain will choose Gov. Crist as his running mate if Clinton is the nominee to take it off the table completely.

Although Clinton probably has a slight edge in the general election in Ohio, nobody can say for certain whether Obama or Clinton will have a better chance in Ohio in the general election. And as it has proved many times, Ohio is a place where Democrats can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Ohio is by no means certain, especially with the level of corruption which may have stolen the state from Kerry in 2004.

One thing we can be sure of is that Obama can bring states into play which could make Ohio completely unnecessary and give us a safety net in the GE. It is entirely possible that Obama could win the election without Ohio; Clinton could not.

What it comes down to is that Clinton has exactly the same losing swing-state strategy of relying on Florida or Ohio which put GWB in office twice, while Obama is following the 50-state strategy which won us both houses of Congress in 2006.; April 24, 2008 1:34 PM
countjellybean said...: Thanks NC, Ed, and Amot.

I ran my own set of numbers using a different method. My results show a slight edge to Clinton.

I use the difference in preferences between each candidate and McCain to decide who gets a states electoral votes. For example, McCain has an 11 point lead over Obama and a 3 point lead over Clinton. So I give Florida's EVs to Clinton. McCain trails Obama by 3 in Colorado, and leads Clinton by 9. So Colorado goes to Obama.

Using this method, I have 118 votes for Clinton, 101 for Obama.

Clinton:
Arkansas
Florida
Massachusetts
Missouri
New Mexico
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Washington
West Virginia

Obama:
Colorado
Connecticut
Iowa
Maine
Michigan
Minnesota
Montana
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Oregon
Wisconsin

Even:
California
New Jersey
Texas

Red (both candidates down by 8+, so the difference doesn't matter):
Alabama
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Virginia

There is no data for others states at Pollster or Rasmussen. I used Pollster data first, then Rasmussen.

Obama trails McCain by 9 in Indiana and Virgina, while Clinton trails by over 15 in both states. That's 24 possible votes for Obama, depending on how one interprets the data.; April 24, 2008 1:37 PM
Yamaka said...: "She can announce that she commits to asking Obama to be VP if she gets the nomination."

I wish she does this, for the sake of the viability of the Democratic Party in the GE!

This will be a very cute political genius - a winning tactical move at least!

Of course, she should do this if only she can adopt part of his FAR LEFT leaning Liberal ideology!

Although, this will infuriate his hard core "Children", a move like this gives him a way out of the self-destructing mode he is operating now, IMHO.

Good idea!

:-) :-); April 24, 2008 1:57 PM
jpsedona said...: Richard,

I generally agree with your analysis. Clinton will probably need to win the traditional map that includes FL. Obama puts other states in play. Depending on the VP pick, it's possible that other states come into play for either candidate. For example VA (Webb), IN (Bayh), NM (Richardson), etc.

However, I would also point out that McCain puts some traditional Dem states in play. These include NH (strong base & NH traditional independent streak) and WI (barely Dem). I think the VP choice for McCain could require the Dem nominee to spend more time winning / defending Dem leaners. It might be possible for McCain to win PA by picking ridge; FL by picking Crist. MA, MI, CO by picking Romney.

What would the impact of McCain picking Rice or Kay Bailey Hutchinson? If Obama is the nominee, YBC might appeal to many of those same older female voters that supported Clinton. If Clinton is the nominee, Rice might attract angry Obama supporters.

Although I'm currently skeptical, McCain might be competitive in NE states. His strong support in NH, Maine's history of moderate Reps, Lieberman's support in CT. Romney in MA. Will he winn any of those states? Maybe not, but he might force the Dem nominee to defend what has been traditional ground.; April 24, 2008 2:04 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: jpsedona-

If McCain picks Rice then that really will look like a BUSH third term.

Senator Obama can pick 59 year old Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Kansas) born in Ohio (Catholic),
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius
and then he will get all the Clinton people that want to vote for an older white woman.; April 24, 2008 2:23 PM
jpsedona said...: Leah,

Although Gov. Sebelius is an up and coming star, I think that choice leaves Obama vulnerable on foreign policy, military issues, the economy and leadership experience. She helps Obama with Catholics and female voters; but McCain has his issues with the Catholic vote, so I am not sure that he 'needs' to go that route. I think Richardson helps Obama with Catholic & Hispanic voters, international experience and leadership (e.g. running a state).

Luckily for Hillary or Obama, the GOP makes its chocie first. They will know what the counter balance needs to be.

Rice has asked not to be considered, so I doubt that she's being seriously considered. But my point was that the GOP has a lot of interesting options to capitalize on the mess that the Dem rules and DNC has put the party in.; April 24, 2008 2:42 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: jpsedona -

Of course you might be right about Richarson but I think that would be a bad choice because:

1) There has already been too much controversy over Richardson's endorsement of Obama - people saying that he was promised something in return for it.

2) A lot of folks don't even know that Richardson is Hispanic so I don't think that will help much.

Also, I see no difference between Sebelius being governor and Richardson being a governor the both are running a state government.

I don't think that Obama 'has to' have a V.P. that has extensive foreign experience - there will be others around him that have that experience. We don't want another Cheney ;)

Anyway I am still going to hope that he picks Sebelius because it would make an awesome ticket :); April 24, 2008 2:51 PM
vwis said...: JP,
You're right I'm a newsie and flick the channels between MSNBC, CNN, & Foxnews. I have work in the media and understand it. I sometimes mix-up where I hear tone. I actually like Chris Matthews. I miss IMUS. I like diverse views. Pat Buchanan and Tim Russert kind of look alike to me. Sorry, Tim.
I find FXnews to depressing. Everything is wrong with the world. The fact we are on the forefront of changing times, there are many great advances we are making, but progress is viewed negatively, I try to stay away from neg. influences.; April 24, 2008 3:01 PM
vwis said...: Yama,
She already tried that. It was gutsy. It was also offensive for the #2 candidate to ask #1 to be VP. The polls then suggested that they didn't want to see that. Her people would rather not vote than to see that.; April 24, 2008 3:07 PM
vwis said...: I strongly suggest that we start to mend. Look forward not back.
I too would have liked Hillary to win. She is gutsy, intelligent,and strong, but I now believed she missed her ride 4 yrs. ago when we needed a strong candidate. Clinton/Bush Clinton has always won. In 4 yrs. it should be Jeb Bush we run against unless JMc wins and survives 4 hellish yrs in the WH. Oh well it will prepare him for the other side!; April 24, 2008 3:14 PM
RobH said...: Ed Iglehart, couple things:

1) The link you provide at "time to revist this" (you know Obama running against himself?) is a useful one. I like the further link (or just scroll down) to the map. While is shows O ahead of McC today, I think it will be improved when several states they show leaning red (NH, VA, MO, CO, NM) end up blue in November.
McC polling today is a reflection of th non-competition from Dems, and wholly unsustainable. We're in good shap as a party.

2) Thanks for pointing me toward Wendell Berry. He's all over that book (The Long Emergency) and I'm diggin into him on the weba nd in library. Thx, thx, thx.; April 24, 2008 3:14 PM
vwis said...: I've been up late the last few night and rose early. I hope everything I said resonates with you.
Yama,
I'm not so sure she is human. I was sure her campaign was dead about 3 times so far. I really want to know how, and what it would take to drive a stake through her heart (metaphorically speaking only)? I'm not that loopy.; April 24, 2008 3:21 PM
RobH said...: Jim, those are funny headlines.
Considering how HRC spun PA's 9 pt victory into "tide changing" after having been up by 26, I see where you get your material. ;)

With all due respect, for the respect you know I hold your style in, these seem...I don't know, like flailing.

In any event there's one priceless nugget in there which I believe is extraordinarily prescient:

"Obama Swamps Clinton in South Dakota +12 Claims Nomination"

If net 25 supers move to Obama in the next two weeks, drawing them even, and he wins NC and IN, then another 75 will move to him by June 3rd, and, yes, SD/Montana will give him the SD's to enable him to claim the nomination.

(Just like I (presciently) claimed several days ago.); April 24, 2008 3:24 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: April 24, 2008
MN & NV Polls: Obama Outperforms Clinton

In new Rasmussen general election polls in Minnesota and Nevada, Obama performs better than Clinton in both states. Obama's winning margin in MN almost tripled Clinton's, while his losing margin in NV was half that of Clinton's. Both states were decided by 4 points or less in the last two presidential elections, with Bush winning twice in NV and losing twice in MN.

Minnesota

Obama 52 - McCain 38
Clinton 47 - McCain 42

Nevada

McCain 48 - Obama 43
McCain 49 - Clinton 38; April 24, 2008 3:26 PM
Richard said...: jpsedona: You are right about McCain possibly being able to put states in play on which the Democrats could usually count. This is all the more reason Obama makes an excellent choice as nominee, because he attracts some of the same independent voters who would otherwise flock to McCain in states like New Hampshire and because he puts other states into play to balance out that danger (as Clinton does not).

Basically who would make a stronger GE candidate comes down to what states you think each has a chance in that the other couldn't.

For Clinton it's:
Arkansas and maybe Florida.

For Obama it's:

Iowa, Colorado, North Dakota, New Hampshire, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina and maybe Virginia.; April 24, 2008 3:28 PM
vwis said...: The one thing I don't get is that which turned me off HRC. was when the media attacked the Clintons, unfairly, about them "pimping out" Chelsea. No matter what else Hillary has done in her life (and it is alot), she and Bill have raised a fine young woman. I do expect to see Chelsea Clinton as a candidate some day and look forward. That is what she appears to being prepped for. I she her and Pat Bush someday run. If Hillary doesn't make it she still has that to look forward to. Maybe her not be the 1st women president leaves that open. She should be just as proud, either way. I hope she doesn't burn that bridge behind this primary.; April 24, 2008 3:33 PM
dwit said...: Amot,

gotta respectfully disagree on this propaganda that Reagan ended the "Cold War".

Russia had been a failing state and was on the verge of collapse in the 70's. I would argue it was actually Gorbachev and other Russian moderates that ended it.

You will notice that China emerged at roughly the same time. The communist experiment definitely has a life span.; April 24, 2008 3:33 PM
jpsedona said...: Leah,

Relative to Richardson, he was horrible in the early debates. He has legit credentials with foreign policy and exceutive branch (Energy Dept). I wouldn't pick him as my VP, but hey I'm not running.

I think when you weigh the ticket, you want to come away with equal or better strength than the other party. I think that Obama's slim experience at the National level is a concern. If he selects someone who doesn't have a credible stature, Obama & his VP could be protrayed as Junior Varsity for the highest elective offices.

When you look at the available choices to Obama that combine demographics, geography, international and/or military experience, his options are more limiting. I honestly don't think he'd go with a VP choice that has little experience in international or military experience.

Biden & Dodd bring some strong creds but no executive experience. Bloomberg would help him on the economic front and maybe some cross over Reps. Clark has been supporting Hillary, so I don't think he'd be considered. Webb, an ex-Rep has a good rep and could help make VA a tossup. I don't think he would do it, but since he's supported Obama, what about Kerrey?; April 24, 2008 3:38 PM
vwis said...: As far as, Obama not being able to win any of the states that are traditional Dem. What about Connecticut? Also, NJ was a narrow win of 1% and that is a blue-collar state.; April 24, 2008 3:49 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: jpsedona-

Kerry, Dodd, Biden - I don't think so. I think Biden would be a good V.P. I've always liked him, but I think 'the people' want something new.

The best way to run against McCain/v.p would be to have a brand new exciting ticket to show the contrast between the past and the future.

I'm still going to put my money on Obama/Sebelius - until someone can come up with a better woman than Sebelius which I don't think is going to happen.

I don't believe in voting on 'gender' but since Hillary has made this a 'this is the time for a woman' race then I think that Obama will have to placate those folks.; April 24, 2008 3:54 PM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

Those headlines are very funny!

Makes me think that after the stories of Obama & Dick Chaney being related; Obama & Brad Pitt being distant relations; and Hillary being related to Angelina Jolie, when are other headlines like that coming out?; April 24, 2008 3:56 PM
vwis said...: leah,
If they wanted 2 new names how about Obama/Chelsea Clinton. That might settle things down.; April 24, 2008 4:06 PM
Peter said...: I'm getting tired of Hillary and her supporters claiming that "she can win the big states" or the swing states or whatever you wanna call them. The results of a Democrat vs Democrat serve as no indication of the results of a Democrat vs Republican. Let me introduce you to this handy site: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ You will see that neither will have a problem beating McCain in 3 of the "big" states she beat Obama in: PA, CA, and NY. So you can stop trying to spin her win in PA as showing that Obama can't win in November. PA was hers to win and Obama succeeded in cutting her lead in half from 20% to 10%.

The Obama vs McCain and Clinton vs McCain maps are interesting too. There are twice as many electoral votes barely leaning towards Clinton compared to those barely leaning towards Obama. They're both beating McCain in the polls right now, but Obama has a stronger position. It is also interesting to note that Obama has the potential to beat McCain in Texas. That would be huge.

But the main point is, her wins in NY, PA, and CA mean nothing for November.; April 24, 2008 4:16 PM
vwis said...: jpsedona,
She is strapped for cash by not having a debate it keeps her off the sirwaves. Why should he they're not talking policy anymore it is just personal character assassination now? That not what you want people voting on. Let's stick to the issues. When she through out Ayers name to the Reps at the last debate the DNC should have said enough. Remember Nov. BHO said on a board with Ayers, he did not pick him. They live in the same community and are civil that all. I have met many people in my life, many I don't agree with. I am still civil to them. I know that you would not want to be blamed for all the people you have met that you don't agree with. Ayers is a radical BHO is not. Guilt by association and it not like BHO has him over for coffee and discuss politics. HRC is DNC show it.; April 24, 2008 4:29 PM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

Face it, most people in this country do not pay much attention to the news. As an example Rev Wright & Bill Ayers were stories before the average people heard about them. Many still don't know about Ayers.

There's plenty of baggage to rumage through for all three candidates. There are a number of stories that will get a replay for McCain (Keaton 5, favors for lobbyists, flip flops on tax cuts, etc.).

For Hillary, there are a number of stories from the WH travel office, Vince Foster, Chinese / Saudi donations to Clinton Library & foundation, etc.

I am sure that McCain & Clinton have plenty of stories that will get aired, maybe not by the campaigns, but by their supporters.

A number of stories have come out about Obama, and I'm sure there's more.

I don't think every story is out for every candidate (e.g. many people knew the story about the female lobbyist and McCain, but to MOST people, this was new & shocking).

All three are just people, each with faults and frailties. None of them are saints, none are perfect.

But the reason that much of this comes across as scandals when retread is because MOST Americans don't pay any attention.; April 24, 2008 4:31 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: vwis-
I think that America has had enough of Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton - NO to Chelsea, Jeb, Jenna, etc. ;)

Jim-
I look at the new OBAMA videos on YouTube every day and the majority of them are positive.
_____

Something that no one has talked about much is that 'independents' didn't vote in the PA primary - so I think that Hillary's margin would have been much less if they had voted.; April 24, 2008 4:32 PM
dwit said...: Jim,

She has already tried to use the Obama VP bait. Problem is, SHE IS BEHIND. Its a non-starter and the supers know it is an empty statement.; April 24, 2008 4:33 PM
vwis said...: Sorry, I got a little worked up there. I forgot to read my copy before submitting it. I'm going to go clear my head. I'll check back shortly.; April 24, 2008 4:34 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: jpsedona. The expectation is for Senator Clinton wo win Indiana. Your point is exactly why I only pay attention to the most recent polls.

richard. If Senator Obama is the candidate of change, shouldn't he be able to win Florida? I think that is the one state where Democrats will win unless Gov. Crist is Senator McCain's running mate.

countjellybean. I give you the polling you ask for, and now you change the narrative of what information you want? Hmmmm.

leah. My favorite blogger. Care to give me the link to your Minnesota and Nevada polling information?

Who do you think Senator Clinton should pick as her VP? My choice would actually be Senator Obama. No way we lose if that happens.

jim. Your facts about the upcoming states are inaccurate, EXCEPT for your last point. The superdelegates probably would steal the nomination from Obama if it got to Denver. As I said yesterday, who do you think wins a convention fight, Senator Obama or the Clintons?; April 24, 2008 4:39 PM
jpsedona said...: Peter,

Valid points about the 'guilt by association'. Unfortunately, this will keep happening to all candidates until the public gets fed up with it. It's a great way to distract a candidate, but is it really important relative to the job they're auditioning for?

Much of this is the result of the 24x7 news environment. Guest after guest discussing the latest scandal, rumor or negative implication.

There are certain associations that are valid to explore. If a candidate was a member of a radical group (e.g. KKK, Hamas, etc.), yeah I want to know about it. If he grew up in the same neighborhood as Ted Bundy, I could care less.; April 24, 2008 4:40 PM
Yamaka said...: vwis:

You overlook this fact:

Her constituency:

Most of Latinos, old matured regular White males and most of Women

Vs

His constituency:

Most of Blacks, young affluent White males.

Blacks are totally neutralized by the Latinos.

The remaining groups are quite favorable for Hillary.

She is behind only about 12 delegates, and ahead about 122,000 popular votes and we have 6 more weeks to go, when you count ALL votes polled so far.

She is a centrist, a moderate, - has won most of the MUST win States for a Democrat. She is earning her legitimacy to seek the Nomination.

Please wait through the Ninth Innings. Game is getting very interesting!

She is a "Million Dollar Girl" - a "Mighty Rocky Big Girl"- wait and she how athletic she is and how a Southfork dance and a thundering left outside hook and a bombing hit on his floating ribs!

Folks, hold your horses.

She will earn all your admirations!

Cheer and Smile for our Girl!; April 24, 2008 4:40 PM
jpsedona said...: Peter,

The argument to use about PA (and really every other contest) goes like this...

WHAT percentage of the RV of the state brought your victory?

When you win PA by 10% in a closed primary, you won by a fraction of the total registered voters in your state. If ONLY appeal to your own party and cannot win the independents, you lose... every time.

When it's McCain vs. Obama, they both have a level of appeal to the independents.

I would ask, in the GE who's going to appeal to the independents, Hillary or McCain? McCain clearly has a SIGNIFICANT advantage. Consider that if Hillary's negatives are at 50% (or higher), her negatives are probably much less than 50% in her own party. That means that her negatives would have to be much more than 50% among Reps and Independents.; April 24, 2008 4:51 PM
jpsedona said...: Gator,

In all defference, I have not seen any real stories about the expectation that Hillary will WIN in Indiana. All that I've seen is stories saying that it's dead even at best, with slight advantage to Obama.; April 24, 2008 4:56 PM
vwis said...: Peter,
I've lived in TX and many other states. It swinging is not so huge. Most of the east is Dem and the south. Bush has caused it to lean more Rep. TX is also southern with a fair size black vote. Ie. Houston. Dallas and Austin are very metropolitian they have a large population from everywhere in the world. When I lived in Plano, it was much like Orange Cty. Cal. My neighbors were white, black, Indian, Korean, and Canadian. It was a group of skilled people who were educated and upwardly mobile. They lived there because of their jobs. Most in high-tech, telecom, and head-offices (TI, JCP, Excel, Enron and others. Austin is becoming more the same. They know that if you elect a president from your home state it means an inflow of Federal money. The difference I joke about between a Rep. President and Dem. is that with Rep. you get a tollway to get you his library. With a Dem President you get a highway. At least that the way it has happened in TX and AR.; April 24, 2008 4:58 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: jpsedona. Senator Clinton was up by 16 points in Indiana and a poll the next day showed Senator Obama up by 5. If we go by averaging out the polls, that has Senator Clinton leading by 2.7 points. Combine that with her Pennsylvania victory, and you have the expectation to win in Indiana.; April 24, 2008 5:00 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Gator said: leah. My favorite blogger. Care to give me the link to your Minnesota and Nevada polling information?

Who do you think Senator Clinton should pick as her VP? My choice would actually be Senator Obama. No way we lose if that happens.
________

Here is the link:
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/04/mn_nv_polls_obama_outperforms.html

Btw: People that are in the senate do not have V.P.s so there is no need for Hillary to have to pick someone.
____________________

Yamaka - The game is over.
The only thing that is going on now is Hillary needs some time to bring in some donations to cover her huge debt and Obama is going to the remainder of states to get people registered to vote so he will have a huge win in November.; April 24, 2008 5:02 PM
jpsedona said...: Yamaka,

Give it a rest about being behind by 12 delegates. It's not factual, period.

In fact, DNC member Joel Ferguson, who's an ardent Clinton supporter is petitioning the DNC to seat MI by giving 1/2 vote to the pledged delegates and retianing full voting for the SD's. Here's the story in case you didn't see it:

Clinton supporter challenges DNC over Mich

As such, the chances of MI being seated as-is, ZERO. IMO.; April 24, 2008 5:04 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: leah. I meant if Senator Clinton wins the nomination, who do you think should she pick as VP?; April 24, 2008 5:07 PM
Florida-girl said...: Hillary is claiming she is ahead in popular vote! That may be true if you give her all of Michigan without Obama receiving a single vote. Is she trying to convince people that no one would have voted for Obama if his name had been on the ballot? She is a piece of work.
Danielle; April 24, 2008 5:09 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: Florida Girl. I support Senator Clinton and I think that Florida should stand the way it is. However, Michigan is a different story. What I think Senator Clinton is trying to say is that Uncommitted was Senator Obama because he took his name off of the ballot. I wonder what some of Senator Obama's loyal bloggers would say as to why he did that.; April 24, 2008 5:14 PM
Peter said...: Yamaka-

It's ridiculous to use the votes from MI and FL "as-is" for any argument. He wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan!

vwis-

Considering Texas has gone Republican in the past 7 presidential elections (since 1980), I would consider Obama winning Texas in November pretty huge.; April 24, 2008 5:15 PM
Yamaka said...: Dear jp and leah:

I am not in your Echo Chamber!

You have been saying this ever since Iowa!

Day dreamers never achieve anything in real world, believe me.

But, take a deep breath and watch the Match: we are just in the 7th Innings or 10th Round, whatever Imagery you care.

Yes, 2208 is for the Full Inclusive Democracy, that's what I care anyway.

You can write down whatever partial number you the bleeding FAR LEFT Liberals want, and yap about it. It's your God given right!!!!

:-) :-); April 24, 2008 5:15 PM
Richard said...: Gator, how many times do we have to explain that an outlier poll is absolutely meaningless. It doesn't fit the trend, therefore its insane results can't be "averaged" with other polls to give an accurate prediction.

Do you honestly believe there was a a 16-point swing in Indiana for a single day? Come on. That poll is worthless.; April 24, 2008 5:16 PM
jpsedona said...: Gator,

Are you referring to the Survey USA poll for Clinton being up 16 at one point?; April 24, 2008 5:17 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Gator-
I knew what you meant and that is why a said what I did. There is ZERO chance she will be the nominee. I do know (imo) that Senator Obama would never accept being her V.P. because he is a person of integrity and he would not want to be on her ticket because of her lies and scandals. He would not lower himself to that level.
But there is no reason to live in a fantasy land - Obama will be the nominee. There is no way that Hillary will overtake Obama in the pledged-delegates and the SDs will not overturn the will of the people.; April 24, 2008 5:19 PM
Somerled said...: Gator-

Of COURSE it was a compliment. You skewed the poll numbers a bit, :-), but you weren't RUDE. I look forward to more exchanges.

TEBOW '09; April 24, 2008 5:24 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: what the heck is an outlier poll?

jpsedona. Yes.

leah. I am just curious. Do you think that Senator Obama is perfect? There are some pretty interesting things that Senator Obama has been up to. I think he is a fine candidate, and his post-Super Tuesday strategy is wonderful, but all I am saying is that there are some things that might make Senator Obama's supporters.........uneasy.; April 24, 2008 5:25 PM
Peter said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 24, 2008 5:25 PM
jpsedona said...: Yamaka,

"Day dreamers never achieve anything in real world, believe me"

We do believe you, you are the evidence unto yourself.; April 24, 2008 5:26 PM
Peter said...: yamaka-

Martin Luther King Jr. was a dreamer and I'd say he achieved something real.; April 24, 2008 5:27 PM
Peter said...: gator-

Obama took his name off the ballot like 4 other democratic candidates did to show that rules are meant to be followed. Clinton and Dodd left their names on. So I think, being in the minority, Clinton should explain why she left her name on the ballot.; April 24, 2008 5:28 PM
Florida-girl said...: Gatorschamp, (love the nickname by-the-way)
I respect your decision to support Hillary. However, if the uncommitted vote were given to Barack, and Fl stood where it were today, she still would not be ahead. Granted she would be a lot closer, but to claim to be winning the popular vote is inaccurate. If Obama loses, I will vote for Hillary over McCain, but she (or her campaign)tends to unnerve me sometimes.
Danielle; April 24, 2008 5:28 PM
Peter said...: gator-

Nobody is perfect.

Let's see what credible information you have to make me uneasy.; April 24, 2008 5:29 PM
Yamaka said...: Good humor, nonetheless!

There are so many new Scandals brewing in the blogosphere about your Kid.

Any time new ones could explode on our faces! Beware!!

Remember, if he is the Nominee, the four King Cobras will come into full action: Lethal and terrifying.

Wright, Rezko, Ayers and Michelle!!

It's not going to happen, believe me. The SDs are professional politicians, knowing the power of King Cobras!!!; April 24, 2008 5:30 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: Danielle. Thank you. Do you go to/are a alum of/root for Florida?

peter. Would you like me to give you the links to what i mean?; April 24, 2008 5:33 PM
Peter said...: yamaka-

Clinton has her share of issues that could blow up in her face, too. How absurd to claim that Clinton doesn't have issues that the extreme-right would exploit. And you can't claim they've already been exposed, because they haven't on a national level. No dirt is old dirt in a Presidential election.; April 24, 2008 5:35 PM
Peter said...: Let me see the links gator.; April 24, 2008 5:36 PM
jpsedona said...: Gator,

ARG is considered the worst poll. It's so inaccurate that RCP won't include it in any avergaes.

Survey USA is next worst of the frequent polling firms. From my perspective, their accuracy and methods are suspect.

An 'outlier' is a poll that does not conform to general trending of all the other polls. For example, if 10 polls in roughly the same time period have Clinton ahead by 6-10 points, then a poll showing Obama ahead by 3 points in the same polling timeframe is an outlier.

In the case of Survey USA, they also weight their polling responses based upon the number phone lines in a home. In my opinion, their accuracy is emi-random.; April 24, 2008 5:36 PM
jpsedona said...: Florida Girl, et al

keep in mind that the popular vote totals used by all of the news organizations ommit four primary states that don't report participation. They also exclude participation in the TX caucuses.; April 24, 2008 5:40 PM
Florida-girl said...: Thanx for the info jpsedona,
I will have to canvass this website and others to find accurate totals looking at popular vote totals only(when I get some extra time).

I have to go feed the kiddies, and finish the laundry. Kudos to you all.
Danielle; April 24, 2008 5:54 PM
RobH said...: Hey, wasn't today supposed to be day one of the Peter Paul trial in Cal? How come I haven't heard anything about it in the news? Was it delayed?; April 24, 2008 5:55 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Gator-
Of course Obama is not perfect - he is a human being. I just think he is much better then Clinton. Clinton seems to lie far too often and there are too many 'big' scandals in her past.

Peter-
I don't have a quote but I think Clinton did come out and say that the reason she didn't take her name off in Michigan was 'because she didn't think it mattered since the primary was not going to count'.
_____

As far as Florida. Florida state has a law that in the presidential primary a name can not be withdrawn unless the candidate withdraws from the entire national race. Obama and Edwards would have removed their names from that one if it had been allowed.; April 24, 2008 5:56 PM
RobH said...: Floridagirl, et al:

The four caucus states have been generally accepted at 110,000 net plus to Obama. Go to realClearPolitics, click on total votes in the upper right, and they will show you all six scenarios and take you through the methodologies as a footnote to the table. This methodology has been commonly accepted/refernced in may other media outlets.; April 24, 2008 5:59 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

Will BHO survive the RNC Ad in NC?

Give me your expert "Margin of Mega Victory"?

Let us see how good you all are?; April 24, 2008 6:02 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yamaka-

If you are trying to get people to listen to you then by you calling Obama who is a 46 year old United States Senator a 'Kid' is not going to get you any brownie points.; April 24, 2008 6:06 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: countjellybean said:
"> $2000: $77,413,699.
Since the internal is unlimited, there is no mid-interval."

There is an upper limit. $2300. It might be $4600 if the contribution was a combined primary and general election contribution. But I'd bet on the $2300 figure, or you can split the difference at $3450 (midpoint between the $2300 and $4600 campaign finance limits.

Mike; April 24, 2008 6:08 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim -

You are not accurately quoting what was said.

Perhaps you should wait until a transcript is posted online.; April 24, 2008 6:11 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim-

Here ya go:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/greg-mitchell/excerpts-from-rev-wright_b_98433.html

Link is to excerpts from the Rev. Wright interview.; April 24, 2008 6:22 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: leah. As I said to peter, I have links to 'big' scandals or major voting errors. Would you like to see them?; April 24, 2008 6:23 PM
jpsedona said...: RobH,

I would agree that RCP has the closest number, but not close to accurate enough.

If you look at the state by state totals, they indicate 101,000 win by Hillary in Texas. If you check the underlying data by clicking on the link, you see that the total is ONLY primary data.

The unoffical numbers that were thrown about were a 1,000,000 caucus voters in Texas(vs. 2.8 million in the primary). Here's one article about the million voter turnout:

Texas Observer

In texas, the caucus wasn't a beauty contest. Like Iowa and other caucus-only states, there were delegates ultimatley at stake.

So, if Obama won the caucuses 56%-44% with 1 million voters, that is "roughly" a 120,000 popular votes that are missing out of the RCP totals.; April 24, 2008 6:26 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: jpsedona,

"[I]t's possible that other states come into play for either candidate. For example VA (Webb), IN (Bayh), NM (Richardson), etc."

On Virginia and New Mexico, you are probably correct. However, Bayh is a different story altogether.

In a poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics (IPFW) taken on on April 14, 15, and 16:
"Adding Bayh would not help deliver the state for Clinton at this point. Only four percent of Hoosiers would switch from McCain to Clinton if Bayh were chosen as her running mate, and some of this gain would be lost by the two percent of Clinton supporters who would support McCain if Bayh were chosen. At this point, Bayh would not deliver this red state into Clinton's category if she were the nominee."

There is nothing about Bayh being on Obama's ticket, but the same situation would probably be similar, especially considering Bayh is an announced Clinton superdelegate.

The poll details are located at:
http://wane.images.worldnow.com/images/incoming/PDFs/poll.pdf
(TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/5rmly4 )

Mike; April 24, 2008 6:30 PM
Yamaka said...: jim:

Thanks for the info.

:-) :-); April 24, 2008 6:38 PM
Yamaka said...: He introduced himself to the National Audience, like

"Skinny Kid With Funny Name" in 2004.

I know this before knowing his full legal name. Lol.; April 24, 2008 6:42 PM
Peter said...: gator-

I asked to see these links.; April 24, 2008 6:42 PM
dwit said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 24, 2008 6:46 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Gator-

No thank you.
The 'imagined' scandals on the net are usually debunked within a short time. Such as Larry Sinclair FAILED two lie detector tests after he lied, it was the National Anthem NOT the pledge of allegiance, etc... if there is a 'true' scandal it will be on TV, otherwise it is not worth the time to sit around and read untrue smears.

Even if there are some unheard of scandals they will never be more than all the Clinton scandals.

Let's get back to talking about REAL issues - like Hillary's health-care plan that will garnish our wages, and Hillary's threat to obliterate Iran, etc.; April 24, 2008 6:46 PM
GatorsChampions4Ever said...: peter. When you have as much as I do, it takes a while, especially considering i'll be typing it out. I want to say that i do not dislike Senator Obama. In fact, I applaud him for what he has done so far. All I am doing is making people aware of everything i know concerning Senator Obama.; April 24, 2008 6:50 PM
dwit said...: One thing some of you have touched on is that Hillary hasn't even been able to keep up with fund raising. Not only that, most of Bill's old advisors have joined the Obama team.

What does this say about her leadership skills and those she has chosen to surround herself with?

She was annointed by the press and the right and all the pundits as the only viable candidate. When this thing started no poll gave Obama any chance of defeating her. This race was hers to lose.

I think this speaks volumes about HIS organizational skills and how capable those around HIM are. To me this is the mark of a good statesman. Don't you ask yourself, "why have Dennis Ross, Bill Richardson and Robert Reich all jumped in for Obama"?

What does it say about Hillary that all of these former cabinet members have jumped ship?

I'm being literal here. Can anyone give me some solid reasons why this is the case? Besides the insults of they are all judas' or traitors. That one isn't going to wash. They were clearly trusted by Bill to make sound decisions and for the most part they performed admirably in his administration.; April 24, 2008 6:52 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: dwit-

Here is another one that might be jumping the sinking Clinton ship:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/24/clinton-bulldog-rahm-eman_n_98524.html

_____; April 24, 2008 6:55 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Hillary's debt is $15.3 MILLION! Five million more that she forgot to report.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/04/clinton_debt_la.html

Anyone that can't manage money and a campaign should not be in the White House!

So with the $10,000,000 she brought in the past day or two she is still way in debt!; April 24, 2008 7:20 PM
Peter said...: gator-

That's fine. But within 2 minutes, searching on Google, I found a huge list of 'scandals' involving Hillary. So this is not just an issue with Obama.; April 24, 2008 7:25 PM
countjellybean said...: peter said:
Let me introduce you to this handy site: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

That is an excellent site! I remember using it extensively during the 2004 GE campaign.

gators said:
countjellybean. I give you the polling you ask for, and now you change the narrative of what information you want? Hmmmm.

ed iglehart clued my into Pollster.com three hours before your post at 11.59. I did not use any of your post in preparing mine at 12.38.

mike in maryland said:
There is an upper limit. $2300. It might be $4600 if the contribution was a combined primary and general election contribution.

Thanks for the help. More information is always better. I put in the $2300 limit into my spreadsheet. The numbers changed slightly, not enough to merit re-posting. The big source of imprecision is in the $0-$200 donation interval.; April 24, 2008 7:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Peter,
How about linking your top five scandals you found fo Clinton
and then do obama and link those; April 24, 2008 7:32 PM
Peter said...: jim-

I don't really care about the 'scandals' for either candidate so I can't really rank them into a "top five" so I will just post some links for Clinton.

http://www.prorev.com/hillary.htm
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/03/26/hillary/
http://hillaryclintonrevealed.net/hillary_clinton_scandals.htm
http://www.cnsnews.com/ViewPolitics.asp?Page=/Politics/archive/200709/POL20070903a.html
http://www.io.com/~cjburke/clinton/clinatoz.html
http://www.againsthillary.com/

As for Obama, there's Wright, Rezko, Ayers, flag pin, etc. Feel free to add any I'm missing.

The point is, any Presidential candidate is going to have 'scandals' that can be exploited by the other side.; April 24, 2008 7:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Peter,
Good list.
Now try Obama and throw in say drugs, sex, gangs and graft; April 24, 2008 7:46 PM
dwit said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; April 24, 2008 7:48 PM
dwit said...: I'm teling you folks, these "scandals" are a bunch of diversions. If you want real scandals, look at where they get their money. Clinton's and McCain's cash sources are quite seedy compared to Obama. I'm not saying his are perfect, but in comparison he comes out smelling like roses.

But, even more important, look at who they have on staff and what their policy positions are. How well have they run their respective campaigns? That to me is a great indicator of responsibility and judgment.; April 24, 2008 7:50 PM
Anonymous said...: dwit,
You should put the im back in your alias.`
Most of your dialogue appears to come from Move on and far right wing sources.; April 24, 2008 7:54 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Jim -

If you are talking about the drugs and sex lies that Larry Sinclair told a few months ago then you are wrong.

Larry Sinclair took TWO lie detector tests and he FAILED both miserably.

So, what Sinclair said is OLD news and UNTRUE! Even the media won't comment on it cause it is FALSE!
_________________________

Now talking about the Clintons... has anyone heard what happened today in California during the PETER PAUL vs. CLINTONS trial that was supposed to have started today???; April 24, 2008 8:19 PM
ed iglehart said...: JP (3:38),
"Webb, an ex-Rep has a good rep and could help make VA a tossup. I don't think he would do it, but since he's supported Obama, what about Kerrey?"

G-d help us! Kerry is a spent force. Besides, he was even worse than the rest on unconditional support of Israel. A true loser.

Gator (5:14),

"Uncommitted was Senator Obama because he took his name off of the ballot. I wonder what some of Senator Obama's loyal bloggers would say as to why he did that."

I concur with Peter (5:25 & 5:28) - because it was the right thing to do.

Yamaka (5:30),

Michelle? What's not to admire?

Jim (numerous),

Are you auditioning as Jean's stand-in?

Salaam/Shalom/Shanthi/Dorood/Peace
Namaste -ed; April 24, 2008 8:30 PM
Dave in NC said...: Comparing Clinton's national poll rankings just before primary season to her rankings now, she clearly has lost many friends and gained many enemies.

How do you "win all the big states" but yet have significantly less support than you did before people got to know you over months of heavy campaigning?

Here is a headline that we could definitely see in the future:

"Clinton Edges Rookie Challenger For Narrow Primary Victory"

However, it won't be for president, it will be for her Senate seat.

Play the Democratic Party for personal gain at your own peril.; April 24, 2008 8:57 PM
vwis said...: m in m,
Considering that Bayh is presently asking the SDs no to make-up their minds and endorse a candidate; I doubt the question on BHO's mind is if he will be VP. However, to start acting like its a done eal by BHO could carry him far and maybe he should announce that Gore would be his first choice, but I doubt that he'd take.; April 24, 2008 9:06 PM
vwis said...: I do agree with Chris M that it is interesting to see what people will do when they run in politics. I'm not sure that any amount of money is worth it. I like Keith Olberman more and more. Also, Rachel Maddow, a Rogues Scholar. Where did she come from? Is Greta V still on the air?; April 24, 2008 9:11 PM
vwis said...: Leah,
You know I jest about Obama/C. Clinton, right.; April 24, 2008 9:12 PM
dwit said...: Jim,

Which is it Moveon or the far right? Can't have it both ways. Remember your candidate is the one who voted with the Republitards on this war.

She is the one taking money from the Saudis and the corporate oligarchs.

She is the one who has vowed to keep us tied in the Middle East for ever with this silly missile shield and/or nuking Iran.

You guys and your left of Hitler mentality are what got us into this god awful mess with terror and perpetual war.

You see, Senator Obama, has two young children that he'd rather not saddle with the foolish debts incurred by their elders.

I can't imagine that you'd want to recklessly rack up a lifetime of gambling and bad business debt and hand it on down to your children and grand children. Or would you?; April 24, 2008 9:19 PM
dwit said...: I do like the sound of that, however "I'm Dwit". Has a nice ring.; April 24, 2008 9:21 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: vwis -

I was hoping that you were jesting or had made a typo ;)

____________

MSNBC has to be the best news network right now for politics. I always watch Matthews, Olberman, and Abrams. That Rachel is always on the ball!

Joe Scarbough and Pat Buchanan those two drive me nuts!; April 24, 2008 9:22 PM
Richard said...: Peter, Jim has given ample evidence of his racism (in posts which were deleted by Oreo at my request). I think we should stop feeding the racist troll.; April 24, 2008 9:31 PM
vwis said...: Leah,
I totally agree with you about Chris M., Olberman, and Abrahms. I also, like Tucker Carlson, I loved IMUS, he kept me in stitches. I detest Morning Joe and his sidekick too. Pat B has always bothered me, but since he started giving Hillary advise he really bites.; April 24, 2008 9:39 PM
vwis said...: Hillary's camp asked the SDs not to endorse a candidate is about the same as the management of firms in the twin towers on 9 11 asking their employees to ignore the evacuation notice. While they either didn't show up or were leaving. Remember that. The senators who have endorsed are telling others that they are elite and allowed that privilege only. Again, the audacity, this time she sent out her minions, so she can say she didn't ask them to.; April 24, 2008 9:47 PM
vwis said...: All,
HRC is pushing for another debate in NC. The media loves the idea, they are the media and that how they make their money.
How do you feel? Is there really anything left to debate?; April 24, 2008 9:52 PM
ed iglehart said...: RobH,

Is this you?

Glad you like Wendell

Also this

The Peace of Wild Things

When despair for the world grows in me
and I wake in the night at the least sound
in fear of what my life and my children's lives may be,
I go and lie down where the wood drake
rests in his beauty on the water, and the great heron feeds.
I come into the peace of wild things
who do not tax their lives with forethought
of grief. I come into the presence of still water.
And I feel above me the day-blind stars
waiting with their light. For a time
I rest in the grace of the world, and am free.

— Wendell Berry; April 24, 2008 10:00 PM
vwis said...: Leah,
That Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton. Really has gone on too long. Jeb Bush has said he will run in '12. At least that's what I heard on the media. It makes my skin crawl.; April 24, 2008 10:02 PM
vwis said...: ed iglehart,
I enjoyed the poem by Wendell Berry. Also, read your bio I wish I were there with you, it sounds peaceful.; April 24, 2008 10:09 PM
vwis said...: ed iglehart,
Do you write poetry, as well as, read it?; April 24, 2008 10:12 PM
cbsmith42 said...: jpsedona @ 6:26 pm,

Full disclosure, I'm an Obama supporter. But I wanted to clarify that the folks who participated in the Texas caucus MUST HAVE participated in the Texas primary to be eligible to participate in the caucus, by Texas law. So, if you count caucus participants in addition to the vote in the primary, it's double counting the same individuals.... I know, Texas is weird ;)

BUT, popular vote doesn't count anywhere, for anything, except for delegate allocation.; April 24, 2008 10:13 PM

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