Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

We have decided to stop allowing anonymous comments. Not because we don't like reading what people have to say but because Blogger has introduced a new "feature" that makes you go to a second page when the number of comments go over 200.

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Thanks!

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1207 comments:

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Oregon Dem said...: Richard:

I tend to agree - whether Oregon gives one or two more delegates to Obama (30, which most predict, or 31 or 32) tends to not matter much in the long run. Each additional delegate for Obama is only a swing of 2 votes out of thousands at the convention and whether CD 3 or 4 break with one more or not for Obama will not matter much in Denver.

On the other hand for statistic freaks it can be important. Remember when we were young and argued over whether Mantle or Maris was the better player? Heck it came down to: was a .286 batting average THAT much better than a .284 when the one with .284 had 5 more RBIs...

Amot:

I will see if I can find a good link to update county by county results (SOS will), but better yet CD level since some counties are not all in the same CD. That way on the 21st we can get down and dirty with the numbers... ;-)

Yam:

There was something I was going to say to you about one of your posts - but I forgot - for a bit I thought it might be something like your statement about me being an elitist and must have gone to schools no one else could or drinking the Kool Aide or something... but that was not it.

I would gladly go head to head with anyone with your kinda views in a neutral forum There is a reason not to do it here. I would gladly go head to head with Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and their ilk in a neutral forum as well (I would never call their show - they control the microphone). In a similar manner we all control what we do and do not say in a forum such as this. I will stick with facts not inuendo.

Just me - your gun tote'n, NASCAR fan, liberal, and progressive fellow democrat from Oregon.; May 11, 2008 5:55 PM
ed iglehart said...: Hotlinks:

<a href="[link address]">[your text]</a>

put the URL (web address) where indicated, and your text where indicated, and you get this:
taoism and anarchy

Try it. You'll like it!
(hope this demo works)
xx
ed; May 11, 2008 5:59 PM
ed iglehart said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 6:01 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Aunt Jean:

Hillary said it either late May 4th or early on May 5th 2008.

Google: Hillary Clinton obliterate Iran

If you do, you will find 10,200+ newspaper articles that quote those exact words; May 11, 2008 6:07 PM
Unknown said...: Clinton and her surrogates have lately been floating the number of 2209 as the "magic" number that must be reached to win the nomination? I thought that it was 2025. If I'm not mistaken isn't 2025 a one delegate majority of 4049 delegates?

So where are they getting this 2209 number from? I figure that it comes from their trying to count the MI and FL delegations but here is where they loss me... if according to their math are there really 4417 delegates available when counting all 50 states? A little help here please?; May 11, 2008 6:11 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Aunt Jean:

Actually I take that back - Clinton said it earlier (April 22nd it appears was the first time) and then defended the comment that she would "totally obliterate Iran" before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 4th / 5th.

You are corect that it was in response to if Iran attacked Israel.

Need we threaten totally obliterating Iran to have deterence? Some may say yes, others would disagree.; May 11, 2008 6:15 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 6:16 PM
Amot said...: Jean,
on Iran:

"Clinton on an Iran Attack: 'Obliterate Them'

Clinton further displayed tough talk in an interview airing on "Good Morning America" Tuesday. ABC News' Chris Cuomo asked Clinton what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.

"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran," Clinton said. "In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."

On Texas:
It is a contest for delegates. I totally agree Clinton won the popular vote in Texas primary, but she lost the state since she got less pledged delegates than Obama did. Plus I am not sure if she won popular vote in Texas overall when counting primary and caucus together!

Oregon Dem, Richard,
SoS did not reveal the number of new Dem voters in April. Therefore we can only speculate about how many students registered. Lane county follows the average persentage for new voters per month in the state. If in April there are more Dems registered in Lane than the average we have the students :) I guess the numbers will be revealed soon!; May 11, 2008 6:18 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Andre:

If you count all MI and FL delegates (elected and super delegates) that would have had a full vote had MI and FL not violated the rules there would be 4116 delegates at the convention.

Given that the number to nominate would actually be 2208.5 - but I may be off by half a delegate (making it 2209) since there was that LA specal election where we got a new super delegate...; May 11, 2008 6:25 PM
Amot said...: Andre,
you are not lost at all. Total delegates would be 4416 if MI and FL delegation were seated in full numbers. Therefore 2208.5 is the number of delegates needed in that case. However in the moment both MI and FL delegations are penalized and they can not vote. The number needed for the nomination is 2024.5 and it can be change if MI and FL delegations are partially or fully seated due to new decision of RBC. It is very likely that both states will be seated with some penalty so the number is expected to change on 31st May. However it is very unlikely the problem to be decided finally before August if Hillary does not quit the race.; May 11, 2008 6:29 PM
Aunt Jean said...: now wouldn't it make since to protect them if they nuck Israel since they are our biggest ally I think even Obama would do something drastic don't you?
Leah I never though SNL was funny
I always though that they were disrespectful.They are not my cup of tea!

Once again you cannot count the votes in the caucas if you didn't vote in the primary you couldn't vote in the caucas.So just because Obama got 5 more delegate doesn't make him a winner of Texas.A cascus is so unfair to some parties.They get mostly young or unemployed people. It's very hard for people that are old like my mother or young mothers with small children and the working class.Not only the primary was 2/3 she won that the caucas was only 1/3 so I do believe her win was better.Besides they haven't even finished counting the votes I don't think. I believe that they said they would be through with them in June[?] Jean; May 11, 2008 6:52 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

It was funny when Hillary suggested getting a pillow for Obama in one of the debates, right?

Hillary likes SNL when it works to her advantage. So, is she disrespectful too? I don't think so. But you seem to be the expert on manners, so tell us...; May 11, 2008 6:59 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: "Once again you cannot count the votes in the caucas if you didn't vote in the primary you couldn't vote in the caucas.So just because Obama got 5 more delegate doesn't make him a winner of Texas."
______

Aunt Jean, I agree the popular votes should be counted only once for Texas (the primary) and not the caucus because only the people that voted in the primary could caucus in the 2nd part of the process.

But Texas is a TWO part process that determines the number of the DELEGATES each candidate will receive.

This is a DELEGATE race not a popular vote race.

SO, since Senator Obama received more DELEGATES from the state of Texas than did his opponent that means Senator Obama WON Texas.

We must play by the rules and regulations of the DNC not by the spin on the TV.; May 11, 2008 7:10 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

Yes, Hillary can win by 80K votes if she uses 'Clinton math' to do it. That would be including MI where Obama got zero votes; and by excluding the 4 caucus states that didn't report popular vote; and by including PR. She would also need to hope that Obama loses the popular vote in OR, MT & SD.

But my point is that it won't matter. If it's that close, it's not going to be a convincing argument for SD's to ignore the leader in the pledged delegates.

IMO her candidacy is terminal; there's nothing she can do to win. She can continue attacking and Obama could be hurt in the GE. But as far as the nomination, it would take more than a miracle. When it's the bottom of the 9th inning and the home team is down by 20 runs, it's possible to win since the game is still going, but you wouldn't bet on the team that's behind.; May 11, 2008 7:10 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Ipsedona I have never watched Snl about Obama I think it's a stupid show. When Hillary said that about the pillow I really didn't think that much about it but if it had anything to do with SNL yes it was rude. Jean; May 11, 2008 7:10 PM
Richard said...: Oregon Dem I didn't wish to undervalue your contribution or anything, and I can be as statistically geeky as you (you did see my post detailing the races to come and figuring percentages, right? And my graph?). I'm just saying that on the whole I am getting fed up with the race. It's about time Obama was able to start spending the $44 million he has on hand to obliterate any lingering impression in the electorate's mind that John McCain is anything but Bush Lite.; May 11, 2008 7:26 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean,

SNL has done several PRO-Hillary skits and Hillary even went on SNL right before one of the primaries. That is why now 'us Obama supporters' are having a bit of enjoyment that there is finally a SNL skit that is NOT pro-Hillary. The Hillary supporters had a few months of having it their way - now it is just fair that the tide has turned a bit in the other direction.; May 11, 2008 7:37 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Ipsedona what 4 states didn't report the numbers because cnn has numbers for all of them. Jean; May 11, 2008 7:39 PM
Amot said...: Leah,
I disagree about Texas!
Texas popular vote must be counted once only when we talk about popular vote nationwide. When we discuss the votes in the state those were two contests and they both had voters. Clnton won the primary by 100K votes and lost the caucus by 12% of appr.1M ~ 120K votes. So Obama won more votes on the two Texas contests together. What a pity Hillary was not clever enough to ask her party fellows to put a ban on caucuses and replace them with primary everywhere in the country! If she had done so, those young, unemployed (and probably not white) people wouldn't be able to vote Obama in search for a job and better future! (wow this last one I could sell to SNL); May 11, 2008 7:39 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah my point is people should be better than that. If Obama people want to get pleasure out of that kind of trash by all means If it was reversed I wouldn't just like I didn't before. As far as the pillow I guess I really didn't pay attention because I thought that she was talking about him falling on his butt after a vote. MY fault for not paying closer attention instead of blowing it off.Jean; May 11, 2008 7:44 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Amot I know that you would love to count Texas votes twice it's just not fair sorry! Jean; May 11, 2008 7:46 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Amot said:"Texas popular vote must be counted once only when we talk about popular vote nationwide."
_____

Amot that is what I thought I was talking about. The national popular vote count.

For the STATE yes Obama received more pledged delegates and votes.

But if you're talking national popular votes - when talking about how many 'voters' voted for which candidate in that case they should be added to the national total just once :)

Right?

_________

Aunt Jean,
There are FOUR states that had caucuses and did not submit a gross voter tally.; May 11, 2008 7:47 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah that is your spin Hillary won Texas don't really care how you try and spin it. Jean; May 11, 2008 7:48 PM
Unknown said...: I really don't think it is worth having a conversation about who won Texas, what is the popular vote count......

When the game starts there are rules to the game. You set your strategy based off of the rules. It does not make sense to go back and see who would of won if the rules were different.

In baseball you could lose the game 1 to 0, but you got 10 hits to their 1. You could say you should of won because you hit the ball much better. You could say that your pitching was better too, so your team deserves to go to the playoffs. But what it does not show is the other team pulled there best hitters for a better defense team to hold the 1 run lead.

In this case would Obama set out with a different strategy if the popular vote was to be figured in. Would he on Super Tuesday spent more money and time on California if it was these Big states to count differently then the others.

If it wasn't for the SD we would not even be having these discussions. The SD are in place if something extra-ordinary happens. I.E. Some information about the leading candidate comes out after the primaries are over that no longer makes this person a viable candidate. We have not seen this type of information yet come out.

In most cases I see the SD coming out using 2 strategies. One support the wishes of the local or state vote. Second suport the person with the most pledged delegates (I.E. the winner if you consider the math).

I honor all the SD who have used either of these methods. I have a problem with the SD's who backed the candidate at the start of the race because of their relationship with that candidate and hoping for personal gains because of it, or the SD who waits to get the phone call promising these personal gains, then chosing this candidate.

I also honor someone like Edwards (not a SD though should be) who really listens to both candidates and understands there is something to like out of both and not anouncing there support for either so people won't try to read to much into it. He could of held out for a VP spot and tagged along with someone, but he didn't.; May 11, 2008 7:50 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah also like I said inmy other post they are not even finished counting the vote so please.; May 11, 2008 7:51 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Bogibuddy the popular vote is:

Clinton:1459814

Obama:1358785

Jean; May 11, 2008 7:57 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean,

Although there is a chance it might change right now for Texas Obama has 99 delegates and Hillary has 94 delegates.

Now if you want to say that Texas doesn't count yet then you have to also say that Hillary has NOT won Indiana yet because Indiana has not finished counting votes either. In Indiana the results according to CNN are only 99% in so far.; May 11, 2008 7:59 PM
Richard said...: The numbers listed on CNN for caucus states are the number of "state delegates" -- that is, the number of delegates to the state convention each candidate received. They are NOT the popular vote. If you've been deluding yourself into thinking, for example, that only about 31,984 people voted in the Washington primary you are sorely mistaken.; May 11, 2008 7:59 PM
Unknown said...: One of the things that concerns me is this rules meeting on May 31. While I can not understand how they can change the rules after the fact, what if they did.

If they do I see 2 possibilities:

1. is the try to change the rules to include Michigan and Florida without changing the results.

2. is they keep Michigan and Flordia results as is, making the race about even and letting the SD's battle it out.

In thinking of the first result they might count 1/2 vote for Michigan and Florida to match the Republicans and try to claim we did the same thing they did so don't take it out on us. If they do this Clinton would pick up about 66 delegates putting her within 100 of pledged delagets. If this happens will pledged delegates change from Obama to Clinton because now the race is close enough to discard the results of the primaries? (I don't think so but would like to hear others view points)

If Scenario 2 happens (Michigan and Florida counts 100% as is), how will SD's look at this. Will they say Clinton now is competitive, fought hard and give her their vote OR will a large majority say the rules committee was unfair to the rules of the race (and therefore Obama) and cast their vote for Obama (I think this would happen personally. Clinton things that if the rules committee changes the rules and gives her these votes that somehow this will benit her. I think SD's, including her supporters will see through this and vote for Obama).; May 11, 2008 8:03 PM
Unknown said...: Aunt Jean,

If I did not state it clear enough that I don't care about who won the popular vote, then I don't think there is hope for you.; May 11, 2008 8:05 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

Four caucus states did not report their popular vote totals. Those states are IA, NV, ME & WA. News sources are using estimates for those 4 states if they're included.

Do you buy the idea that the popular vote in MI should count? Hillary has 328,309 to zero. Do you think that anyone who is currently neutral would consider that a real total? IMO, only those who are ardent Hillary supportes would believe it; and that's not who she needs to convince...

RCP has all the popular vote combinations. Here's their counts:

RCP Popular Vote Counts

The current popular vote total excluding MI, FL & 4 caucus states is:

Obama 16,003,521
Clinton 15,266,942; May 11, 2008 8:11 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 8:17 PM
Kujo said...: Aunt Jean...

where is your source on the popular vote. Here is what everyone one is publishing:

(note caucus states are only IA, NV, ME, WA not Texas)

Not Counting MI or Fl or Caucus:
Clinton 15,266,942
Obama 16,003,521 +736,579 2.2%

Not Counting MI or FL, inc Caucus:
Clinton 15,490,804
Obama 16,337,605 +846,801 +2.6%

Counting FL, not MI or Caucus:
Clinton 16,137,942
Obama 16,579,735 +441,807 +1.3%

Counting FL, Caucus not MI
Clinton 16,361,790
Obama 16,913,819 +552,029 +1.6%

Counting FL, MI not Caucus
(or we can say Aunt Jean Favorite)
Clinton 16,466,237
Obama 16,579,735 +113,498 +.33%

Counting FL, MI and Caucus
Clinton 16,690,099
Obama 16,913,819 +223,720 +.64%

In any way you add it up, Clinton is losing. So Aunt Jean I ask again what votes do you want not to include.; May 11, 2008 8:18 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah you would argue with thew moon if you thought it would help. They are finished with the vote counting in Indiana if you would check all of cnn site they just haven't changed the 99 yet. YES winning a state is by the popular vote even though the delegate count is also counted. So lets settle this Clinton won the 2/3's part of Texas and Obama won the 1/3 part of Texas her win is BIGGER. HOW IS THAT!Jean; May 11, 2008 8:19 PM
Hillary Clinton said...: Will someone please tell me how to get off of this train?? Help, I lost and I can't seem to stop myself from continuing to spend millions of dollars needlessly.

Oh ya, and, I suck harder than Monica Lewinsky!; May 11, 2008 8:38 PM
Amot said...: There are many, really many Clinton supporters amongst supers, who wait and pray to find a reason to back her publicly. It is either they are good friends to the Clintons or they are in states and districts where Clinton would be the better candidate to help their re-election. So if Clinton somehow convince the RBC to vote for 'as is' option for MI and FL, the show will go on. And that is possible because she has more supporters in the committee than Obama does. Of course, such a decision will be appealed to the Credential committee, but that will happen in Denver and being in Denver is all Clinton wants. The only way for Barack to counteract is to win big in OR and ask supers to back him as presumptive nominee before May 31st. He will and they will. Having 350 or so superdelegates backing him on May 31st he will make any RBC decision out of topic. He will have about 1760 pledged (including FL) plus most of the MI uncommitted plus 350 supers for a total of 2160 or so delegates. If necessary Edwards will endorse him as he hinted already several times and ask his delegates to back Obama for the unity of the party. Only chance for Hillary now is before working that deal with RBC to win big WV and KY with hopefully Obama not viable in at least one CD and a narrow lose or unexpected win in OR. But it is known that when she is positive she is losing, and she is positive in OR so far. Her last negative remark about the white, hard-working Americans resulted in 10 supers for Obama in 24 hours. 5 more remarks like that and it will be over! She must hope that in the next 8 days a big scandal will sink Obama...; May 11, 2008 8:48 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: aunt jean said: "So lets settle this Clinton won the 2/3's part of Texas and Obama won the 1/3 part of Texas her win is BIGGER. HOW IS THAT!"
_____

Not good enough. You don't win by winning ONE PART - the winner is the person that win when BOTH parts are added together. We here in Texas have a TWO part process that has to be added together to determine the winner.

Also, as far as Indiana is concerned I believe that some of the votes in Hamilton county are still out. Just because CNN has called a winner does not mean that 'the state' has certified the results.; May 11, 2008 8:48 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Kujo I don't know where you get your numbers at but I get mine from CNN

Clinton: 15971319 w/ fla,mi, and caucuses

Obama:16015689 w/ fla and caucuses.

Obama ahead 44370 votes= .001%

Jean; May 11, 2008 8:51 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I'm from Texas too if you can remember and Hillary won Tx. you just can't stand that.The Primary was the most important part because without that the other wouldn't have happened. LOL Jean; May 11, 2008 8:53 PM
Unknown said...: I am going to start the HRC death watch....According to my calculations, Obama needs 4 more superdelegates (excluding ad-ons from his states)....using the following assumptions:

1. He currently has 1,594 pledged delegates, 275 superdelegates

2. He will secure approximately 30 add-ons from states he controls

3. No seating of FL and MI

4. He can garner 101 pledged delegates from the remaining states

5. He gets the Pelosi club (7) + following 4 who have not endorsed but we know where they are - Brazile, Gore, Clyburn, and Emmanuel.

6. He secures 10 of Edwards 19 delegates

Should any of these assumptions not hold- that simply raises the death watch total...; May 11, 2008 8:57 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: aunt jean,

What page are those number totals on over at CNN?; May 11, 2008 8:57 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

If you think that including MI into the popular vote total is going to convince anyone that Hillary is the better candidate, you may have been drinking a bit too much of Yam's pool water.

Secondly, even if Hillary comes out ahead by 1/10 of a percent without including MI, that will be way to little, and way too late.; May 11, 2008 8:59 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

The most important part of the TX contests is the delegate counts. That's all that matters. That's what it takes to win the nomination.; May 11, 2008 9:01 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: aunt jean said:"The Primary was the most important part because without that the other wouldn't have happened. "
________________

That is a ridiculous statement.

Both parts are important.

You can't say that only half of a football game counts.

You are the one that is not admitting the facts here. The person in the end with the most delegates in the Texas Two Step election wins. Period - end of story.

If you can't see the reality here then there is no use in trying to discuss this any longer with you.; May 11, 2008 9:02 PM
Aunt Jean said...: leah Hamilton county isn't that big so it won't change the number. Sometimes you have a very condescending attitude toward Hillary supporters. It's not only rude but it's not appreciated. So please refrain from doing it please. Jean; May 11, 2008 9:09 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah just because you don't want to admit that Hillary won in Texas that's ok. Jean; May 11, 2008 9:11 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

A lecture from you on rudeness is like a Hillary lecture on ethics and sniper fire.; May 11, 2008 9:13 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hillary clinton [not] oh is that what you do? LOL LOL lOL Jean; May 11, 2008 9:15 PM
Amot said...: Leah,
I have just watched a video clip with your favourite VP Sebelius on Obama's site. Sorry to dissapoint you but this woman is terrible speaker and probably poor debater... I am joining the group of Webb supporters for VP. (Of course, Gore is still my best choice); May 11, 2008 9:16 PM
Aunt Jean said...: ipsedona we can sit here all night and go back and forth saying very ugly things or we can play nice. Now the reason I said what I did to Leah was the truth she knows that I am in Texas. She was being very rude to me as normal.Just like she is rude to most Hillary supporters.Or it might be just the females. Jean; May 11, 2008 9:20 PM
Amot said...: BTW, In is over - Clinton won there. Unless they discover a big mistake in any county in Obama's favour or there is really huge disbalance in provisonal and absentee balots. I think both are unlikely to happen, so let give here IN. You still can argue if she won with the votes of the Reps or in fair fight; May 11, 2008 9:20 PM
dsimon said...: I just want to weigh in on whether the US should promise to "obliterate" Iran if it attacks Israel.

The fact is that if Iran attacks Israel, Iran will be obliterated...by Israel.

Remember folks, Israel has its own nuclear deterrent. They don't need us to nuke Iran for them. And that's why Iran won't attack; all the bluster is for domestic consumption. I'm not worried about Israel's ability to take care of itself.

Candidates would better spend their time talking about how to engage Iran and monitor their nuclear program. The rest is a distraction.; May 11, 2008 9:28 PM
Kujo said...: Aunt Jean

AP (Associated Press, not Clinton News Network); May 11, 2008 9:30 PM
Aunt Jean said...: dsimon if you don't think that the US wouldn't be over there helping them you're wrong. Jean; May 11, 2008 9:31 PM
Aunt Jean said...: kujo Cnn is not for Hillary, Obama is their Golden Boy. Jean; May 11, 2008 9:32 PM
Aunt Jean said...: I don't care what you say if there was any republicians voting they voted for obama because they [meaning the rep.] want him to win because they know McCain can beat him. Jean; May 11, 2008 9:35 PM
Kujo said...: Aunt Jean,

CNN does not have those numbers, did you just make them up. Show us a link to where you got them (can not link to a scribble pad next to your key board).; May 11, 2008 9:44 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: aunt jean said: "She was being very rude to me as normal.Just like she is rude to most Hillary supporters.Or it might be just the females. "
____________________

aunt jean-
I do not think in terms of gender and race. And I truly do not believe I am rude to Hillary supporters. I have only been posting about some facts this evening. I have not said anything against any Hillary supporter.

Now about Indiana - yes, I believe that Hillary won Indiana. I was just pointing out that not all of the votes there have been counted, but HRC will win that state in the end. Just like there won't be enough turn-around in Texas for HRC to win that one - Obama will have more delegates from Texas in the final results.

Can you provide a link to the CNN page where you got your total popular vote count at. All I have ever seen on CNN is the indiviual state counts and those do not have the FULL popular votes listed for the caucus states. Thank you.; May 11, 2008 10:04 PM
suzihussein22 said...: OR Dem-We're looking at the East side of the Rockies because it lessens some of the rain coming in from the Pacific. Quality schools are our priority. We found the website to Hood River.org and we're getting in touch with some family that hasn't lived there long.

independent voter and Aunt Jean-How about them tempers! I've got Irish and I'm right on the cusp of Gemini and Cancer...my b-day gets to be on the "longest day" of the year too. Yea!

I composed a letter to one of my undecided SD's, Bart Gordon. I didn't save the text and I used the wrong mailbox so I get to make the same argument again from scratch. Ugh. Everbody hope I have a good memory. I'm not a good writer. He was e-mailing me to get permission to contact us during a black-out period. He's been very good for TN for many years. He's worked hard for college students, senior citizens, and the list goes on. Maybe if enough of constituents contact him, the squeaky wheel will get the oil.

issue-Abortion-I'm not pro-choice, but I'm not completely against it. There are definite exceptions-hardship, rape, incest, and threat to the health of the mother or baby. The last one is a hard one to concede for me. I'm a miracle baby. If my mom knew now what she didn't know then about her condition when she had a c-section, she told me she would have had an abortion. I'd like to think I've turned out as a productive citizen, but that's a moot point now. I think in some ways it has become too convenient.

HuffPost has an article about McCain had his convention campaign manager for less than a day. There "might" have been a conflict of interest.

Someone on another thread mentioned voting for the first time even though they're older than 18. Isn't that great?! It's always been important to my family to exercise our Constitutional rights. I had one year when I was really sick and my husband almost had to hold me up in the booth, but it was worth it!; May 11, 2008 10:06 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
YES winning a state is by the popular vote even though the delegate count is also counted.

Aunt Jean,

The popular vote is used to determine how many delegates will be allocated to each candidate in a contest. There is nothing else in the rules about using the popular vote in the selection of a candidate.

The rules state that the candidate who achieves the majority of delegates at the Democratic National Convention is the nominee. The rules don't mention that Electoral College votes, or any other factor will change the number of pledged delegates a candidate receives in a jurisdiction.

Senator Obama appers to have won more delegates in Texas, and therefore Senator Obama will most likely receive more votes from the Texas delegation at the National Convention than Senator Clinton.

As to superdelegates, the rules state that they can choose any candidate they want. They are expected to use 'good judgment' in their choice, but they do not have to explain their decision. Some might have chosen/will choose a candidate because the candidate drove the 'correct brand of car' for all we know.

'Good judgment' for each superdelegate can be:

- Who is the better candidate in my Congressional District (or state, if a Senator), so I am more likely to be reelected?

- Who is the better candidate in my state (no matter my personal reelection chances) so as to win the Electoral College Votes of my state in the General Election? (This may or may not be the candidate who is best for winning the nationwide Electoral College vote.)

- Who is the better candidate in terms of winning more Electoral College votes nationwide, no matter what their chances are in my state?

- Who better represents the ideals of the Democratic Party (as perceived by that specific superdelegate), no matter if that does or does not reflect their ability to win the General Election?

- Etc., etc.

Popular vote determines the number of delegates a candidate wins in the primary/caucus in a specific jurisdiction, under the rules of that contest. That is the end of the popular vote. From that point on, it is purely a count of the delegates to the convention, and whichever candidate achieves the majority of the delegates at the convention wins the nomination.

If no candidate can achieve a majority of the delegates in the first round of voting, a second round of voting is conducted. If no candidate can achieve a majority of the delegates in the second round of voting, a third round is conducted.

There is no limit on the number of rounds of voting, and the rules do not prohibit another candidate being put into consideration if the delegates can't decide on the candidate. In fact, the 1924 Democratic Convention was not decided until the 102nd ballot when the nominee was John W. Davis.

The last time the Republican party had a contested, multi-ballot convention was in 1948, when Thomas E. Dewey was nominated on the 3rd ballot.

The last time the Democratic Party had a contested, multi-ballot convention was in 1952, when Adlai Stevenson was nominated on the 3rd ballot.

Although we haven't seen one in more than 50 years, it is possible for a multi-ballot convention to occur. The GOP came close in 1976 and the Democrats came close in 1980.

Close in those years, but no cigar. However, there is no rule that says one cannot occur at some time in the future. And if one does occur, the nominee that emerges might not have received a single popular vote in the lead-up to the convention.

This whole discussion about 'who leads in the popular vote' is a distraction from the real purpose of the convention. The purpose of the convention is to select the candidate who represents the party in the General Election. That nominee is chosen by delegates at the National Convention.

The popular vote argument can ONLY be used by superdelegates when they decide who to support, and that argument might, or might not, be one of many reasons the superdelegate chooses to support one candidate over another.

Mike; May 11, 2008 10:13 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Here we go again:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/11/hillary-clinton-will-most_n_101192.html

this is 'one' of the things that really turns me off of HRC and her campaign more and more each day. The constant 'looking' for something to bring Obama down and the constant 'guilt' by association tactics make my stomach turn!

.; May 11, 2008 10:13 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: cont...

If the Clinton Machine hasn't found any dirt then sure as heck the McCain folks won't either!!!

The Clintons ought to be ashamed to even step foot in a church!; May 11, 2008 10:15 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I haven't said anything bad about Obama. All I've said is that Hillary won Texas you're the one that got in a tiff not me.And as far as the part about being rude to Clinton supporters to most of them you are.I was just stating a fact as I see it.Also from some of your comments to other Hillary supporters I don't think I'm to far off base.

What is this about?

this is 'one' of the things that really turns me off of HRC and her campaign more and more each day. The constant 'looking' for something to bring Obama down and the constant 'guilt' by association tactics make my stomach turn!

.What have I said for you to say that? Jean; May 11, 2008 10:26 PM
Kujo said...: Jean.... Where did you get your numbers.......; May 11, 2008 10:29 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah your claws are showing again. The Clintons have more of a right to be in church than Obama does if you want to get down and dirty!!!!Doesn't it say in the bible : He who has not sinned cast the first stone. So are you casting the first stone I know that you have sinned just like everyone else so quite judging.Jean; May 11, 2008 10:30 PM
Kujo said...: I am not convinced that Hillery is actually running for 2008, I think she is extending it to 2012.

Brings a new meaning to the term:

"4 more years"; May 11, 2008 10:30 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: aunt jean,

regarding your post of May 11, 2008 10:26 PM

I was referring to the URL I posted of the article.

I did not reference you by name in that post.; May 11, 2008 10:32 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Kujo Cnn all I did was add all the vote totals. Leah said all the votes on the caucuses are not there so my total might be wrong don't know. Jean; May 11, 2008 10:33 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: aunt jean said:"Leah your claws are showing again. The Clintons have more of a right to be in church than Obama does if you want to get down and dirty!!!!"
_____________________

jean you have never seen my claws. I have been very restrained on this thread.

Hmmm... you say that Hillary has more of a RIGHT to be in a church than Obama? WRONG@ They have 'equal rights' to worship their religion where they chose.

Neither is better than the other in that respect.

But Hillary has been more dirty in this primary season. Obama has not brought all of Hillary's baggage out to use against her. Hillary has slug mug every chance she has gotten and she is still trying to dig up dirt. Just read the article that the URL above goes to and you will see.; May 11, 2008 10:38 PM
Aunt Jean said...: I've noticed that you obama supporters like the huffington post I wonder why? Jean; May 11, 2008 10:39 PM
RobH said...: Yamaka said these exact words at 4:48PM today:

"If you think the sloganeering of McSame, McBush etc is going to do the Job in the Fall, you are simply a freakish moron!"

You're correst, their inane sloganeering, probably propagated by you, will not get the job done for them in the fall.

Don't bother to reply that I got your context wrong. Taken straight up, these words are beautiful. Maybe we're starting to see some movement in our favorite sock puppet?; May 11, 2008 10:43 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Yes Leah everyone has a right to go to church the only reason I said that was because you said the clintons should be ashamed to step foot in a church. So I figured if they weren't good enough than obama shouldn't be either.As far as the huffington post I can already see that they think obama is the golden boy so no thank you I don't trust then not to be unbias. Jean; May 11, 2008 10:44 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: aunt jean- this is what I was talking about when I said above 'here we go again'...

Clinton Campaign Still Searching For 'Damning Info' On Obama

Carl Bernstein, writing for CNN, explores the various landings Clinton could make when she finally puts her campaign to rest. One of the more damaging scenarios goes as follows:

Explosive, setting down after the enemy has been carpet-bombed (an "October surprise in May"), something the Obama campaign believes may be less and less likely to come from his Democratic opponent because of the dangers to the party and the Clintons' reputation. Yet the Clinton campaign's search for damaging information and its hope that such information exists continues, according to knowledgeable sources. Strategist Harold Ickes, her premier tactical counselor, warned on the eve of the North Carolina and Indiana that Obama could be vulnerable to an "October surprise" by the McCain campaign.

.; May 11, 2008 10:45 PM
Aunt Jean said...: mike in maryland no where in the rule books does it say that they can't use the popular vote to put in there also! Jean; May 11, 2008 10:45 PM
Yousri said...: Popular Vote Help:
I have been monitoring all those sites for a while.
CNN and other major news media update their popular vote ion the night of the primary only. They never modified their numbers unless there is a major press release from SoS of that state.
RealClearPolitics(RPC) try to keep up with latest vote tally but not always successful. They also use estimate which is not scientific.
The only source for complete and accurate Count of popular vote is Green Papers. They are in contact with every state election officials and they have up-to-date totals. Sometime they update a state twice a day. They have recently updated MD PA NC and many other few weeks after the primary. And yes they have FL & MI and Sen. Obama has 0 votes from MI.
I hope that gives you a clear picture of popular vote.; May 11, 2008 10:46 PM
Aunt Jean said...: As far as mud slinging they BOTH have Leah .Jean; May 11, 2008 10:48 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Thanks Yousri

And the bottom line is that only the Delegate count is used for nominating the party's candidate. The only time a vote "count" matters is at the convention.; May 11, 2008 10:53 PM
Yousri said...: Green Papers web site is Here.; May 11, 2008 10:54 PM
Aunt Jean said...: yousri thanks .Jean; May 11, 2008 10:58 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 10:59 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Emit you can be wrong we will just have to wait and see. Jean; May 11, 2008 11:01 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: ?; May 11, 2008 11:02 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: "As far as mud slinging they BOTH have Leah"
____________________

Well, not really Aunt Jean. Senator Obama has not been slinging the mud like he could be regarding all of the past Clinton scandals and baggage - but the Republicans will do it in a heartbeat 'if' Hillary were ever to be the nominee.

Obama has been taking the high road for the most part and only has thrown a couple of elbows - and he has acknowledged that - but he has not brought up the Clinton scandals and misdeeds.; May 11, 2008 11:05 PM
RobH said...: Wouldn't it be great if Leah and Jean actually lived in the same town?? (I do have it correct that you're both in Texas, right?)

Maybe even attend the same church??

How awesome would that be?; May 11, 2008 11:05 PM
RobH said...: C'mon, ladies. Could you pony up with where you're from, maybe county first? I know you probably want to retain your anonymity, but I'm intrigued by the possibilities.

I see a Pay-per-View opportunity out there....; May 11, 2008 11:08 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
no where in the rule books does it say that they can't use the popular vote to put in there also!

Aunt Jean,

According to the "Call for the 2008 Democratic National Convention", issued by the Democratic Party of the United States as adopted by the Democratic National Committee, February 2, 2007 (these are the rules of how the nominees will campaign, when the primaries and caucuses will be held, and all other details of the nomination process:

Section VIII (Procedural Rules of the 2008 Democratic National Convention), C (Order of Business), 7. (Roll Call for Presidential Candidate), b., "A majority vote of the Convention’s delegates shall be required to nominate the
presidential candidate."

"A majority vote of the Convention’s delegates shall be required to nominate the
presidential candidate."

"A majority vote of the Convention’s delegates shall be required to nominate the
presidential candidate."

(I repeated it for you, since you seem to have missed prior messages about this point).

Nowhere do the rules state that any other measure shall be used for selection of the nominee at the convention.

"A majority vote of the Convention’s delegates shall be required to nominate the
presidential candidate."

To read the rules, follow this link:
http://tinyurl.com/3sp6ax

Oh, and if you are attempting to say above is that a superdelegate can consider the popular vote, I think I covered that with the "etc., etc."

BUT, as I stated, that only applies to the superdelegates, and I hope they have more than a single criteria when making their decision, and that those criteria are based on what they perceive is in the best interests of the party.

Mike; May 11, 2008 11:20 PM
Kujo said...: and it excludes:

American Samoa
Dems Abroad
Guam
Virgin Islands

But even doing this I added up all of CNN's numbers and .... what do you think.... they are very close to what everyone else has (except Aunt Jean).

CNN Obama +688548

Not counting the above mentioned plus caucus states.

(note CNN does not have final's on some states where AP does.); May 11, 2008 11:22 PM
Kujo said...: I think Aunt Jean is actually Hillary; May 11, 2008 11:25 PM
Kujo said...: I think Aunt Jean is actually Hillary; May 11, 2008 11:26 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I do believe that you are trying to pull the wool over my eyes are someone because even though you might not admit it or any of the other obama supporters he has. How about that finger or the dusting of the shoulder. That was more than throwing mud that was out and out juvenal. I asked someone that hates hillary and doesn't really care for Obama to watch the video. All I said was for him to watch it and see if he seen anything out of the way. I just wanted to see if he seen what I saw. Well guess what he seen it right away. Guess what again Obama got away with it. Now that was very mature [yeah right] !!! I think not.Of course you will will holler he did no such thing. Jean; May 11, 2008 11:28 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Kujo no such luck but would be proud to be her!!!Except she is older than I am. LOL LOL Jean; May 11, 2008 11:30 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Kujo I will admit I forgot them sorry never claimed that I was perfect. Jean; May 11, 2008 11:32 PM
Richard said...: I think it is time to stop trying to reason with people who obviously have no desire to be moved by facts. There is no way that anyone will convince Aunt Jean of the real way the election works any more than we can convince Yamaka that Obama doesn't have a desperate desire to be Hillary Clinton's VP. Let's stop trying to do so, it only makes them more incomprehensible.; May 11, 2008 11:33 PM
Aunt Jean said...: robh you are funny but I don't think that Leah would enjoy the kind of church I like. Nice try though. lol lol Jean; May 11, 2008 11:36 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Richard that is your take on things. Obama supporters sit there and say that the SD'S can vote how they want to but then say that isn't the way it's done. It seems to me that you are the ones that is confused. Jean; May 11, 2008 11:38 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Robh I live in a small town about 30-35 miles north of Houston. Jean; May 11, 2008 11:43 PM
Aunt Jean said...: One of the obama supporters said the only one that is right is the green sheet. So if that is true obama only has 125588 more votes than Hillary.That is nothing to how many has voted. Jean; May 11, 2008 11:45 PM
Yamaka said...: Good Evening Fellow Democrats:

I just had a wonderful swim in my pool enjoying the moon hiding behind the beautiful canopy of my Oak trees! Life is fabulous in Houston. Thank the Lord for His kindness and generosity.

It's very interesting that still 283.5 SDs are outside the malignant and onerous charm of BHO's grin as of this minute!

Hillary needs only about 200 of them after June 3 to clinch the Nomination:

1890 + 121 + 200 = 2211 over the Real Inclusive Hurdle 2209!

OoooooooooooYa.........2211 is possible, Yes She ....C...a...n !

Any guess work from the Magicians of Manipulation as to how many PDs Hillary would get out of the remaining 6 Contests? Maybe, BHO would get all of them!!!!?????

I believe she will get at least 121.

Rodent, the Joe P. Goebbels of our times, any thought? lol.

:-); May 11, 2008 11:58 PM
dsimon said...: dsimon if you don't think that the US wouldn't be over there helping them you're wrong. Jean

What I'm saying is that we won't be over there helping because it won't happen to begin with. Again, Israel has its own nuclear deterrent. Would Iran really attack Israel if they knew an attack would be met with a nuclear response? Very, very unlikely.

And even if they did attack, why would Israel need our help if Israel can nuke Iran on its own?

So (1) it won't happen, and (2) Israel could take care of itself if it did.; May 12, 2008 12:02 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: RobH-

I am about 16 miles NorthWest from downtown Houston. So Aunt Jean is not very far away from me!; May 12, 2008 12:12 AM
Aunt Jean said...: oh my god. I know where Leah lives and it doesn't surprise me.; May 12, 2008 12:17 AM
Yamaka said...: "we can convince Yamaka that Obama doesn't have a desperate desire to be Hillary Clinton's VP"

richard: That was an old story, long time ago.

HRC will NOT take BHO as VP now.

He has Hamas, Ayers, Rezko and Rashid Khalidi to hold hands with.

Dont' day dream.

Go, stay inside an Echo Chamber and recite Ossbbaama! Kathleen W..h.o?

:-(; May 12, 2008 12:20 AM
dsimon said...: I'm really tired over all this talk about the "popular vote." It seems to me that the popular vote is an irrelevant metric because it was never the point of the contest, which inevitably becomes a pledged delegate contest. Nothing prevents superdelegates from considering irrelevant items, but it wouldn't make much sense for them to do so.

Candidates run their campaigns according to the rules they're given. It makes little sense to argue about who "won" the popular vote in the 2000 general election because candidates knew only electoral votes mattered. If they were told the popular vote was going to matter, they would have run their campaigns differently (like spending time in NY and CA), and we don't know what the result would have been.

The only way the overall popular vote total could matter in the Democratic primary would be (1) if the contest were close enough that superdelegates would matter, and (2) if enough superdelegates hadn't already committed for other reasons for it to matter (note that most of them committed some time ago), and (3) if enough of them that were left were willing to take the popular vote into account, and (4) were willing to give it enough weight to tip their decisions. That's an awful lot of contingencies.

By contrast, a pledged delegate is as close as one can get to a sure thing. Every pledged delegate secured is one less needed mercurial superdelegate. Since states allocate their delegates proportionally not just statewide but by district, there will be some districts close to a delegate tipping-point and others where it would take tremendous resources to change the delegate allocation. Candidates, if they are rational, will devote their time, energy, and money towards the former and not care about votes in the latter.

Since it seems to me that no rational candidate would devote resources to votes that did not lead to more pledged delegates, it seems unfair to use the total popular vote as a metric because it was never the point of the contest. If people don't like the delegate system, we can tell the party to change it for next time. But this time we have a delegate system, and that's what the candidates have been going after, not some "popular vote" that would affect the outcome only if a lot of "ifs" came to pass.

(And never mind the logistical problems of adjusting for caucuses, and that four caucus states--Iowa, Maine, Washington, and Nevada--that don't report their vote totals at all.); May 12, 2008 12:23 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: "oh my god. I know where Leah lives and it doesn't surprise me."
_______________________

What does that supposed to mean? I'm out in Jersey Village - is there something wrong with that?

And you are up north past the airport - The Woodlands? or more north closer towards Conroe?; May 12, 2008 12:27 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: "robh you are funny but I don't think that Leah would enjoy the kind of church I like."
____________

aunt jean I am Catholic. So unless you are too then I would never bump into you at church. When I am here in Houston I go to an Italian language mass. When I am in Italy my favorite churches are in Roma (Rome) and Napoli (Naples).

.; May 12, 2008 12:34 AM
Yamaka said...: "You're correst, their inane sloganeering, probably propagated by you, will not get the job done for them in the fall."

Well, first I want Rodent to correct your spelling!

Then, please wait till the Nomination Fight is over. Let the Winner win the Fight clean and tidy.

I will blog in detail how to beat John McCain.

First we have to accept his awesome military & public service and experience.

Then engage him on various substantive issue differences. There are plenty.

Calling him as McBush and McSame are just children's play. Calling him "Old and Tired" is equally laughable! Never go there!!

Not for adults. Wait... we can take him on like valiant warriors!

We know how to fight clean and win.

:-); May 12, 2008 12:50 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah the cops in Jersey village are jerks.I live in Riverwalk. Jean; May 12, 2008 1:06 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I do think Jersey Village is nice though. Jean; May 12, 2008 1:07 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Amot said: " Leah,
I have just watched a video clip with your favourite VP Sebelius on Obama's site. Sorry to dissapoint you but this woman is terrible speaker and probably poor debater... I am joining the group of Webb supporters for VP. (Of course, Gore is still my best choice)
May 11, 2008 9:16 PM "
_______________________

Amot-
You are correct. Her voice needs a little work:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=1nHp90Z2NJk

But hey, she can do what Hillary did and take a few voice lessons from a drama coach! Hmmmmm maybe that's what she has been doing the past few weeks since we haven't heard anything from her in awhile ;); May 12, 2008 2:39 AM
Independent Voter said...: Wow, am I tired. I JUST finally finished my research paper. I just got done reading the posts from today and WOW! Are things getting heated in here.

Softspoken....LOL I can see it now, the whole website is going to blow up with all of us geminis and the Irish on the thread. BTW that is too cool being on the cusp.

Jean, you had mentioned in Obama's speech, which took place the week after the ABC Gotcha "Debate", was his way of making fun of the way the "debate" was handled. You have to admit, 52 minutes of non-issue distracting questions that related entirely around Obama's the Rev. after the issue had been dealt with hundreds of times before, and flag pins, with the moderators and Hillary ALL ganging up on him, when she got one question for which she pretty much got a pass on regarding the Bosnia sniper-fire lie. Out of a 2 hour "debate" almost the entire first hour was stupid.

I'm still trying to figure out why on earth ABC would allow a someone from the former Clinton administration who is still very close to Hillary to be a "moderator".

When Obama was brushing his shoulders off, he wasn't disrespecting Clinton, he was brushing off the stupid non-issue attacks brought on by the ABC "Debate" moderators.....come one, FLAG PINS? John McCain doesn't even wear one.; May 12, 2008 2:50 AM
Unknown said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 12, 2008 2:56 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Amot-

I love to listen to Senator Bob Casey talk. I wish he was a governor - then he'd probably be my first pick :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Casey%2C_Jr.; May 12, 2008 2:57 AM
Unknown said...: Quote from Hillary today

"Hard work and resiliency are encoded in our genes"

And what is that suppose to mean? Who is she talking to and what is she infering?; May 12, 2008 2:59 AM
Unknown said...: I mean really. Is she saying that some people are born to be unsuccesfull? They will never work hard and will alway be lazy, relying on the governement?

And if it is in our genes, then it would be carried down, so is she signifying and one group of people?

I find that statement offensive; May 12, 2008 3:07 AM
Independent Voter said...: bogi,

I am a die-hard Obama supporter. But without seeing or hearing the entire comment in full context, I won't pass judgment on that statement.

Look at what has happened in this entire campaign. The parsing of words taking everything out of context, it has just been absolutely ridiculous. I know that both sides have done it, but it doesn't make it right.

Until I see what the full context is, I'm keeping quite on the issue.; May 12, 2008 3:23 AM
Ariane said...: Someone said recently, complaining about someone else's post being unclear, "I know it's difficult for the average under-educated Clinton supporter...."

As an Obama supporter, I just want to voice an objection to such comments. Surely we can ask someone for more clarity without adding snide remarks generalizing about educational levels. That just gives ammunition to those who would portray us as "elitists" - - a portrayal that is wrong because I am sure that attitude is not shared by the great majority of Obama supporters.

Remember that lots of people, both new and old, posters and lurkers, see your comment, not just the person to whom it's addressed who may have said some bad things in the past. At a time when we need to start uniting, it is harmful to make insulting generalizations about people we need on our side....I think the side that's ahead has to be extra magnanimous. No, it does not make sense to vote against someone based on obnoxious comments from their supporters (or alleged supporters) on the Internet, but the reality is people are influenced by many things and every time we insult we are adding a little weight to their resentment.; May 12, 2008 3:36 AM
Amot said...: Leah,
That clip was made Saturday :) If she is attending lessons, she is not doing good... Casey is nice pick, he can help a lot campaigning with Obama, but he shares Obama's weaknesses :(

Popular vote is not important for the selection of the nominee. I am sorry I started that talk again. I just wanted to make a point that even in the worst scenario for Obama he will win the popular vote. Maybe that will be 20K or less... Unsignificant indeed but he will win it. Bad thing is he will not be able to win majority of it. Not because he didn't actually win it but because of the two primaries he did not participated in and the 4 caucus states. Good thing is McCain didn't won the majority of the GOP votes neither. And he is running alone for two months!!! Check that on GP. So GOP will not be able to play the popular vote card against Obama...

I really hope that Sen. Clinton will make a strong exit and will help Obama win the GE! She is a strong candidate and it was unfortunate for her to meet another strong candidate in this remarkable race. I think if she had planned her campaign with more respect to the opponents and less confidence in her victory, she would be still in the race and probaly leading! But now it is over and she has to help the party!

Yes, Obama will face some troubles winning without her help. So would she... But if she wants to stay in the politics she must help him!; May 12, 2008 3:39 AM
Independent Voter said...: Here goes my last post for the night.

As an Obama supporter, I think Hillary staying in, at this point, is a good thing. I know, I know! I know what my fellow Obama supporters are going to say......NO GET OUT! But please hear me out!

ALL OF THE POLLS show Hillary being ahead of Obama by 30+ points in BOTH WV and KY. How would it look if she were to drop out and Obama were to be BLOWN OUT in those two contests against someone who is no longer in the election? It could be absolutely disastrous for Obama. Had she dropped out back at the end of February it would have been better, but it would disastrous for us to have an absolute blow out against a candidate that no longer exists.

I remember a few years back, I can't remember who or where it was, but in a congressional district one of the candidates had died mid-election season and he actually ended up winning the election, yes, even though he was dead. That had to be extremely embarrassing the challenger....you know, to lose to a dead guy. It would be the same thing if Hillary were to drop out now.

No, I'm not saying Hillary would be dead, I'm just saying it would have the equivalent embarrassing result.

So at this point I say let her ride it out through June 3rd, especially since she will probably have a very strong showing in Puerto Rico as well.; May 12, 2008 3:57 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Independent voter said...
. . . I remember a few years back, I can't remember who or where it was, but in a congressional district one of the candidates had died mid-election season and he actually ended up winning the election, yes, even though he was dead.

Maryland had that almost exact same experience in 1980. Gladys Noon Spellman was running for reelection in the then-5th Congressional District, where I lived at the time. On the weekend before the general election, she collapsed of a massive heart attack. She immediately went into a coma, with the medical reports saying it was almost certain she wouldn't recover much, if any, function.

On the following Tuesday, she received 80% if the vote. When it became abundantly apparent that she would never recover at all, let alone be able to take the oath of office and perform the duties of a Representative, Congress declared her seat vacant in February, 1981. It was the first time the House vacated the seat of a member who had become mentally or physically disabled.

On May 19, 1981, Steny Hoyer won the special election to fill the seat.

Congresswoman Spellman died June 20, 1988. She had never regained consciousness.

Mike; May 12, 2008 4:29 AM
Ariane said...: Aunt Jean wrote "Squirrel people like you are the biggest reason I will try my best to get a republican in office over obama. Talk about trash that comes out of your mouth you are low down scum of the earth calling Hillary a tramp it's crap"

Aunt Jean, you yourself have called Obama "Son of satan." (Now that's a bit stronger even than "tramp"!) and all sorts of other names. So if Senator Clinton were to be the nominee, would the things you said be a good reason for ME to vote for McCain instead of Clinton?

I've just made another post objecting to an Obama supporter's insult and pointing out how it influences people. But even so, whatever obnoxious things a candidate's supporters may say on the Internet is NOT at all a good reason to vote for someone (McCain) who is so totally against what Hillary is for (or what Barack is for which is practically identical).

I will admit I have had the same impulse a few months ago. Hillary supporters, writing the most horrific abuse against Obama and anyone who supports him, made me so mad that I thought "OK if she wins I am voting for McCain." But checking out more about McCain made me come to my senses. He is not the supposed "maverick" he may have once been, he has flip flopped on issue after issue to suck up to the right wing.

I think our vote is too important to let ourselves be influenced by what some anonymous people on the Internet say- -that is a small minority of a candidate's supporters anyway. And the truth is we don't even know for sure people support who they claim to. There are GOP trolls impersonating both Obama and Clinton supporters to further divide us. I am convinced some of the worst hate comes from them - - not all, but the others are not worth betraying our own values by voting for more of Bush policies.

PS Hope your mother is recovering well and had a good Mothers Day.; May 12, 2008 4:31 AM
Ariane said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 12, 2008 4:45 AM
ed iglehart said...: Jean,

"I was just stating a fact as I see it."

Er....isn't that another way of saying it's an OPINION?; May 12, 2008 5:37 AM
ed iglehart said...: Leah,

Thanks for the Sebelius speech link. I don't find her voice too bad. She isn't as fired-up a speaker as some, but that's OK. She sure ain't off-putting, like some I could mention.

Ariane,

Quiet common sense and decency, as usual. Thank you.

Independent,

Strong argument for HRC staying in to get her consolations in WV and KY. You aren't alone in seeing that dimension.

Jean & leah, I think y'all should meet for coffee (or something stronger) sometime, and make a tape. We'd all love to listen in, I'm sure. You might even like each other.

Best to be like water

xx
ed; May 12, 2008 6:17 AM
Ariane said...: Yamaka,

You mentioned recently you liked what Senator Obama said about his mother in his interview with Wolf B. In belated honor of Mother's Day, here is a link to a NYT article on Obama's mother,a truly remarkable woman who was involved in work like arranging microcredit for 3rd world women.

Her name was Stanley Ann Dunham -- she was like the feminine version of "A Boy named Sue". Her Dad wanted a boy so badly that he named his DAUGHTER "Stanley" !! At least they added the "Ann" which she later went by, but she must have been teased terribly as a kid. And they didn't even live in the South where names like Bobbie Lou and Billie Sue and Frankie Jean are common - - but even so, Stanley Ann is one I never heard before!

A Free Spirited Wanderer Who Set Obama's Path; May 12, 2008 6:22 AM
ed iglehart said...: McCAIN LOANS CLINTON CAMPAIGN $6.4 MILLION

WORLD NEWS
Cyclone: Laura Bush Slams Myanmar's “Inept” Leaders
“Can you imagine an American president dealing with a hurricane like that?” she asks rhetorically.
Leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq Arrested
Hunt begins for new leader of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
Russia Close to War With
Georgia Over Sovereignty
Florida close to war with Georgia over water.

PEOPLE

Cindy McCain Says She'll Never Release Tax Returns
Claims prenuptial agreement supercedes campaign reforms sponsored by her husband.

;-)
ed; May 12, 2008 7:18 AM
ed iglehart said...: Having lived abroad for 36 years, it's some time since I last fulfilled my duty to vote. The last time was in 1968, when I voted for a Chicago man.

There has been a suggestion Dick Gregory should run for president in 2008
. Check out the policies in italics.

And, from Wikipedia:

He then wrote Write Me In about his presidential campaign. One interesting anecdote in the book related the story of a publicity stunt which came out of Operation Breadbasket in Chicago where the campaign had printed $1 bills with Gregory's image on them. Some of these bills made it into circulation in cash transactions causing considerable problems, but priceless publicity.
..
The majority of these bills were quickly seized by the Federal Govt. A large contributing factor to the seizure came from the bills resembling authentic US currency enough that they worked in many dollar cashing machines of the time. Gregory avoided being charged with a federal crime, later joking that the bills couldn?t really be considered US currency because everyone knows a black man will never be on a US bill.

I still have one of his dollars somewhere! Ah, the memories....
xx
ed; May 12, 2008 9:19 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Bogibuddy What Hillary meant by that statement: "Hard work and resiliency are encoded in our genes" is that people are hard workers and they bounce back from hard times.. Why is it that you [obama supporters] always try and make what Hillary says evil. What a shame!! Jean; May 12, 2008 9:44 AM
jpsedona said...: Leah,

You indicated that Hillary took voice lessons. Is she planning to sing some time soon? It's not over until...; May 12, 2008 9:46 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Amot once again if the SD's want to vote for the one that has the most popular vote they can so that statement is wrong!! Jean; May 12, 2008 9:49 AM
Amot said...: Jps,
Hillary is not fat enough to qualify! I think she actually is behaving well during the last three days and is showing herself as a very good candidate!; May 12, 2008 9:53 AM
jpsedona said...: Amot,

This morning Andrea Mitchell on the Today show indicated that Hillary knows the math won't work for her. That she will stay through the primary and leave based aon seating some delegations from MI & FL.

So she may not be tuning up but I'm sure that she's thinking "me me me me..."; May 12, 2008 10:04 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Amot do you really think if Hillary doesn't help Obama that her political career is over that is a silly statement. It might put a dent in it but that's all. One more thing if Obama and mostly the media would of been fair and not taken every little word that Hillary and Bill said out of context this would have been a totally different race. But the media wanted Obama to win and that was it. I know that you won't admit that and I can understand but it still doesn't make it a LIE!.

Dave [Independent voter] I totally disagree with you on the comment about the finger and brushing of the shoulder because of what happened at a rally after that he showed total disrespect for Hillary. As far as the debate yes I agree somewhat with you are that even though I don't think Hillary really attacked him and I don't believe that she had anything to do with the questions like some people think. Got you finished your paper maybe you will have more time to do the things that you like to do. Have a nice one! Jean; May 12, 2008 10:07 AM
ed iglehart said...: From California and Oregon, comes this ironic observation.

"The biggest change in human history over the last 5,000 years, Houston said, "is the rise of the feminine . . . slowly, but surely, to full partnership with men over the whole domain of human affairs. This is shifting everything." This was what Houston and Bateson tried to convey to Clinton in 1995 when they helped her understand why, quite apart from political strife, she was the object of so much loathing."

"It's the fear of the 'rising feminine,' " Houston said.

"Ironically, Clinton's problem today, Houston said, may be that Obama has given better voice to that new pattern of possibility -- that he embodies a more female, inclusive approach to problem-solving, while Clinton has become mired in proving herself capable of emulating the male model, which requires combat and the demonization of enemies...."
[emphasis mine -ed]

This woman has some pretty impressive associations, including Margaret Mead and Mary Catherine Bateson. Both are in my hall of heroes, as is Gregory Bateson, husband to one and father to the other.

xx
ed; May 12, 2008 10:09 AM
Amot said...: Last Suffolk poll:

"West Virginia Democratic voters appeared to be in denial about the
delegate projections. Asked who would be the next president, regardless of
whom they personally supported, 31 percent said Clinton; 27 percent, Obama;
26 percent, McCain; and 11 percent were undecided."

Obama needs not only voters registration campaign, but voters education campaign too!; May 12, 2008 10:11 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Ariane if you would look I also retracted that statement later on. I don't say that anymore because I do know that he's not. Jean; May 12, 2008 10:12 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 12, 2008 10:13 AM
jpsedona said...: CQ politicis has their delegate predictions completed for WV. This includes the three districts and statewide projections. With 28 delegates at stake, Hillary has a good change of netting a +10 delegate margin over Obama.

CQ Politics WV Delegate Projections; May 12, 2008 10:17 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Ariane yes my mother is recovering well. She is one lucky person we have a big family and we spoil her LOL LOL .So yes she had a wonderful Mothers Day Thank you. Hope you had a great one to and all the ladies on here and the world. Jean; May 12, 2008 10:19 AM
Amot said...: Jean,
of course you are right!
In a situation when two candidate have dozen or two pledged delegates to differ, and 10% or so of the popular vote in favor of the loser, sure the supers should chose the loser! But you said 80K is nothing and the lead including FL and counting MI as 0 Obama will be less than 80K for either of them! If one of them lose electability supers are due to support the other, but they will not argue with 0.3% of the popular vote!

On the other point:
If Hillary plays week for Obama and he loses because of her half-mouthed support, she will lose some credibility and will not be chosen nominee in 2012. But I don't think that he will lose nor that she will not support him. I agree MSM helped Obama. But that was not the decisive thing! She hold a poor campaign! I think she would win if she had played smarter! I think she would be a good nominee and win the GE. I still think Obama is the better choice but she had excellent chances and blew them all alone!; May 12, 2008 10:23 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Amot I have to agre with you on that somewhat. Jean; May 12, 2008 10:26 AM
Aunt Jean said...: To everyone on this blog have a nice day I've got to do some things for my mother will be back later. In the mean time God bless. Jean; May 12, 2008 10:28 AM
Amot said...: JPS,
I have 19/9 split projection for WV dating mid-March. I will be greatly suprised if he passes the 30% statewide and it will be miracle if he passes 35.71% to gain 3 at-large delegates. I also feel worry about passing 25% in 1st and 3rd CDs, 25% being the threshold for two delegates. I believe he will have 28-29% overall and will get a razor thin over 25% in 3rd and maybe 27% in 1st.; May 12, 2008 10:35 AM
jpsedona said...: Amot,

I think that Obama is going to get a real butt kicking in WV. He may poll better than expected in some spots like Morgantown (CD1) and might do a little better in Charleston (CD2), But I tend to think he's going to loose the district delegates by 12-6 or 13-5. It's possible that he loses big in CD3 (Hillary 5 Obama 1).

It would be a minor miracle if he's able to get more than 3 of 10 statewide/PLEO delegates.; May 12, 2008 10:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Election 2008 Latest Polls
2008Presidential, May 12

Obama is in 6 of these polls and leads none.
Folks really like him.; May 12, 2008 10:55 AM
ms_snark said...: Is the widget broke? it is no longer updating on my igoogle home page.; May 12, 2008 11:00 AM
ed iglehart said...: Jim,

Why not post a link?; May 12, 2008 11:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Ed, This ones for you.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html; May 12, 2008 11:03 AM
ed iglehart said...: Jim,

And this one's for you

;-)
ed; May 12, 2008 11:11 AM
Amot said...: Jim,
very nice of you to link us to polls showing Obama turning NC and VA into battleground states. He is tie in MI and he has not been there yet. When he works a deal on their delegation he will improve with a couple of points.

Jim, it is time to face the reality and start working for the Dem nominee. If you are real Dem, try to remember the things you like in Obama in the past and spread the news about him being better than McCain!; May 12, 2008 11:15 AM
Anonymous said...: Ed,
Aples to apples Clinton is better than Obame.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html; May 12, 2008 11:17 AM
Anonymous said...: Amot,
Thanks for the advice. I prefer to make up my own mind though.
BTW is WV an open Primary?; May 12, 2008 11:21 AM
ed iglehart said...: And here's why

And, I second the comment of one poster on the HuffPost article:
"If race is the reason - and there are hundreds of anecdotal reports that it is - then it's not Obama's problem, it's West Virginia's problem, and it's America's problem. Political leaders (Clinton included!) and the media need to combat the ignorance that breeds racism with correctional information. Entertaining destructive prejudices as possibly true is not fair and balanced, it is permitting the institutionalization of racism...."

and another, showing the level of ignorance as well as unadulterated racism:

"Every blog that I have read from West Virginia bloggers just state two things....OBAMA IS A MUSLIM and his WIFE IS AN AETHIEST.....This is sickening...This is a part of Bill and Hillary's back room comments and it has been consistent. Bill yesterday was so rude towards Obama in every speech and the news hasn't carried even one of his remarks...."; May 12, 2008 11:21 AM
Anonymous said...: It has been said Obama does well in open primaries.; May 12, 2008 11:22 AM
Independent Voter said...: Good morning.

Boy, everyone's been busy this morning (of course it is only 7:50) right now here on the west coast).

Mike, thanks for the confirmation on my thoughts earlier (regarding the congresswoman). Could you imagine being her opponent?

Thanks Ed, I really don't think it would a good thing for him to lose huge to a candidate who isn't in the race, so I say let her go out on top. Possibly "suspend" her campaign after June 3rd. I just say suspend instead of end, just in case something does happen between then and August as a back-up candidate.

ariane, I TOTALLY agree with you, referring to Clinton supporters as "uneducated" voters. That is extremely disrespectful. I know in the past I have said things to that effect, and would be an example of myself not being too proud about saying it. People have different types of education, whether it is formal or if it is life experience.

jp,
You said that Sen. Clinton could net 10+ out of WV, I would say that is very possible. She was leading in one poll last week by 43 points or something ridiculous like that.; May 12, 2008 11:25 AM
ed iglehart said...: But Jim,

She ain't the nominee, apple, orange, presumptive or otherwise, and she ain't gonna be.

Justice

xx
ed; May 12, 2008 11:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Ed,
Nobody is the nominee, yet. Presumptive is accurate.
I presume you legally have no dog in this fight.; May 12, 2008 11:32 AM
Independent Voter said...: Jean, I don't recall him being disrespectful of Hillary, especially when you consider the whole "let's get everybody together, lets get unified, the sky will open, the light will come down, celestial choirs will be singing, everyone will know we should do the right thing and the world will be perfect", mocking of Obama. Now THAT is disrespectful. If you would like to watch it again http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1ckrEeHDRY

Her "Shame on you Barack Obama", scolding him like as if she were his mother.
The only thing that I found him to be disrespecting her about was when he called her Annie Oakley (sp?). Which if that is what you are talking about, then yes, it was disrespectful, but come on, everyone knew that she was pandering at that point. Her dad took her duck hunting? Highly doubtful. I don't believe she has ever fired a gun. And then she was asked when the last time she was in church or fired a gun, her response was "that isn't relevant." HUH? She kept throwing the bitter/cling comment that was poorly stated, the Wright issue, the William Ayers issue.

I personally don't think that she had anything to do with the actual questions, but the first hour was literally stupid season in that debate (Obama likes to call it silly-season). I found it interesting that when Charlie and George brought up the William Ayers question, and Obama answered it, and then turned it to Bill's pardoning of two of the people in the same organization - hence linking Bill and Hillary to the same organization - they [George S.] asked her if she wanted to respond or go to break, she chose go to break. Those "moderators" were literally OUT TO GET Obama, that was very clear! When they came back from break they should have asked her about it.

I have to get this paper turned in, so I have to get running for now. I'll be back a later this afternoon.; May 12, 2008 11:34 AM
Yamaka said...: "but even so, Stanley Ann is one I never heard before!"

Ariane:

Thanks for the post.

I have read about this in BHO's Book The Dreams from my Father:

I got the feeling Ann was a very naive idealist - she fell in love with much older, previously married BHO Sr very quickly when they were in U of Hawaii (in the Russian Class in the very first week!). She became a teenage mother! Then, Alas, BHO Sr abandoned the 2 year old Jr and the very young wife, and ran away to Harvard U. Money that Harvard offered was the prime motive for the desertion!!

After that BHO Jr had a chance to see his father for about a month in Hawaii when Jr was in the middle school. In this brief period Jr had hardly talked to him regarding why he abandoned them.

But very curiously Jr titled his very first Book as The Dreams From My Father. How did he get Dreams from his -the most irresponsible- father? I am very confused.

BHO Jr's judgment on this is very puzzling to me. More so, when he writes,

"Never emulate White men and Brown men whose fates didn't speak to my own. It was into my father's image, the Black man, the son of Africa, that I'd packed all the attributes I sought in myself".

This gave me an idea, why BHO Jr sought the friendship and mentoring from pastor Wright who preaches "Exclusively Black" Afrocentric sermons.

For me, when the current Democratic Party is inching towards Reverse Discrimination to pander to the Blacks, their Presumptive Nomonee's true views (not the politically packaged varnished views) on race is very critical. White America must have a very good look at this "Nominee"

I hope at least the voters of the remaining 6 Contests will do the job. Hillary can still win with the following Math:

1890 TDs + 121 PDs + 200 SDs = 2211, the Inclusive Full Hurdle being 2208.5 TDs.

Cheer, Smile and Vote for Hillary the First Woman POTUS.; May 12, 2008 11:34 AM
Squirrel said...: Some questions about WV.

Isn't WV the State wherwe the present Governor (D) used to be high up in the KKK?

Isn't that Governor the one who was an ardent segregationist? And he kept getting elected as a Democrat?

If I remember rightly, haven't the Clinton camp said they will win WV by 60%?

As for May 31st I am not bothered at all, remember that 'some' of the Clinton supporters on the committee actually do believe in rules and playing fairly, they are not all Clinton androids.

The very best that Clinton can achieve is only a 50% reduction in each delegates vote from Michigan and Florida. However, I think a certain Senator Obama (the now presumptive Democratic Party nominee for POTUS 2008) has not to worry about this, more States, Representatives, Senators, members of the DNC, and other superdelegates will be so inflamed by the lack of honesty and fairness shown by Clinton that they will dissenfranchise themselves from Clinton.

We have already seen that Clinton is fighting a rear guard action trying to hold onto the superdelegates that have already endorsed her, West Virginia and Kentucky results will not change this, whilst Oregon will enhance the willingness of these superdelegates to change their endorsements.

Also, it should be remember as soon as Senator Obama reaches 2024.5 he will be declared the winner by the press around the world, that is what the rules say. To change the rules in favour of one candidate will totally alienate not only the majority of the American public but also the Democratic Party, Senator Clinton, and indeed the whole of the USA would forever lose the right to declare themselves to the world as a bastion of democracy!

Just imagine what the junta in Myanmar, the Chinese Government (financial sponsors of Clinton through their Intelligence Service), and tin-pot dictators would make of such an action in the future!; May 12, 2008 11:42 AM
Martin said...: I don't know what's funnier: Aunt Jean's daily meltdowns, or Yamaka's delusional rants? Aunt Jean's constant stream of "This post has been removed by the author" (considering the stuff she DOESN'T delete, what kind of crazy and/or misinformed stuff does she decide to censor?) or Yamaka's insistence on crowning Hillary "the first woman POTUS" as if that's actually going to happen? Or maybe the blatant racism from both of them? Whatever, these two nutcases are making this election much more amusing.; May 12, 2008 11:44 AM
ed iglehart said...: Interesting???

"In looking over this table, it is obvious that West Virginia’s citizens are quite loyal to the Democratic Party. It is notable that when Republicans Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, and George H. W. Bush won their first-term presidential elections, West Virginia’s electoral votes went to the losing Democrat. In turn, what is highly noteworthy is that George W. Bush is the first Republican (since the Great Depression) to win West Virginia’s electoral votes en route to becoming a first-term president. ..."

I wouldn't let it worry me, though. If Obama/Webb delivers Virginia, McSame can have WV and KY.

xx
ed; May 12, 2008 11:46 AM
Anonymous said...: Squirrel said...
Some questions about WV.

Isn't WV the State wherwe the present Governor (D) used to be high up in the KKK?

Squirrel,
Rather racist, HUH?

Yam says, Book Quote
"Never emulate White men and Brown men whose fates didn't speak to my own. It was into my father's image, the Black man, the son of Africa, that I'd packed all the attributes I sought in myself".

Everyone knows the far right 527's
Are ardent readers and dirt diggers. They will make this election all about race.

all they had on Kerry was Swift boat and flip-flop.
"Get ready to rumble.; May 12, 2008 11:53 AM
ed iglehart said...: Jim,

I'm ashamed to admit that, since I remain a US citizen, I do have a dog in the fight, but, as admitted above, I have neglected my duty to vote ever since writing Dick Gregory/Mark Lane on my ballot in 1968.

Enjoy!; May 12, 2008 11:58 AM
Squirrel said...: Jim,

I agree, I think that being a member of the KKK is racist, and being some kind of so-called' Grand-Master must be even worse.

I am glad you agree that the WV Governor does appear to be a racist.

It just makes me wonder who would vote for him?

I know he is an ardent Clinton supporter and I was looking for why? It did not take too long to find out either, especially with the Clintons' racial rantings this electoral season.; May 12, 2008 12:00 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

Hope it's a beautiful day in TX. Before you jump in the pool you may want to read an article about Chlorine poisoning. There is no antidote for chlorine poisoning.

During this election cycle, it could be contributed to delusions, being burned at the voting booth and all types of other election maladies...; May 12, 2008 12:03 PM
Yamaka said...: "Yamaka's insistence on crowning Hillary "the first woman POTUS" as if that's actually going to happen?"

martin:

American Voters will crown Hillary "the First Woman POTUS" because

1. She has the Math

1890 + 121 + 200 = 2211. The required Hurdle to jump is just 2208.5

2. She has broader and deeper constituency:

Most of Latinos + Most of White Women + Most of Working-class White Men constituting nearly 55% of the Electorate.

BHO has Most of Blacks + Most of the ill-educated "Affluent" White Men constituting nor more than 45% of the Electorate.

This is NOT apparently evident because of the structural problems of the Caucuses, which effectively removes the older and working voters (most of which are Hillary supporters) from the process. But in the General Election, there is no Caucus; therefore, her constituency will fully participate.

3. The current Democratic Party is practicing the Reverse Discrimination: pandering to only the Blacks, who want to rule over the majority of the Whites! This CANNOT just stand, for we will fight these bigots in the valleys, in the mountains, in the cities and in the rural towns of America (as Churchill once said).

Please wait and see. Between now and Aug 25, there will be completely new story written:
the Democratic Nominee: the First Woman POTUS.

Get out of the Echo Chamber, and smell the free air of rational thinking.

(Rodent, check my spelling, please - you are a good proof reader! lol)

:-); May 12, 2008 12:05 PM
jpsedona said...: Squirrel ,

Fomer Sen. Majority Leader Byrd was a KKK member. He has regretted his position from his earlier years and made his amends while serving in the Senate. Of course, an endorsement for Obama would have helped with voters who don't know Byrd's history.; May 12, 2008 12:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Squirrel said...
Jim,

I know, but just think what they will do with Clinton:

Won't copy your list, but they could use most of those against JUNIOR.

BTW, What about my question to Amot. Is WV an open primary?; May 12, 2008 12:16 PM
Squirrel said...: Jim,

How?

Examples please?

Yamaka,

I just thought I would point out to you, because I know it would cheer you up so much, the last time Clinton held a lead in the Democratic Nomination according to RCP was 02/11!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

I really hope you have some money invested in Clinton winning, that would be the icing on the cake for many of us.

Me, I have registered 'www.PresidentOba.ma' and have already turned down a $5,000 offer to buy it, mind you I have also turned down a low $xxx,xxx for www.JesusChri.st, so who knows what the future will hold.

Now wouldn't that be something if I put up a web page saying 'JesusChri.st' endorses OBama for POTUS!; May 12, 2008 12:20 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

"American Voters will crown Hillary "the First Woman POTUS" because 1. She has the Math"

Let her have the popular vote; what she NEEDS is the delegate vote. And trending would say she's not going to catch up.

She didn't do that well with add-ons in states she won. Look for that trend to continue.

Axelrod indicated yesterday that we will continue to see a steady stream of SD endorsements for Obama over the next couple weeks.

If Hillary wins WV by +10 delegates, she'll offset Obama's SD pickups from Friday.

Hillary's campaign indicated yesterday that they are $20 million in debt... she also doesn't have the money.

Money, math & mommentum... she has none of these.; May 12, 2008 12:21 PM
Yamaka said...: "There is no antidote for chlorine poisoning."

jp:

Wonderful humor. I didn't know you are a jovial person! You came across as a serious number cruncher.

Regarding chlorine, which is a powerful oxidizer - it can pull electrons from anything to reduce itself to satisfy its electronic shell configuration! Once I was a world-class chemist, I know it all!!

However, one should have a pool, and swim in the evening with your back stroke to look at the growing moon in the milky way, all hiding beyond the canopy of huge Oak trees!

Wallah.... life is fabulous! Thank the Lord.

:-); May 12, 2008 12:22 PM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

Yes, WV is an open primary for the first time. It allows independents.; May 12, 2008 12:23 PM
ed iglehart said...: Jim,

Don't you have access to giggle?

"In West Virginia, Republican primaries are open to independents, while Democratic primaries were closed. However, as of April 1, 2007, West Virginia's Democratic Party opened its voting to allow "individuals who are not affiliated with any existing recognized party to participate in the election process"."; May 12, 2008 12:23 PM
Squirrel said...: Obama picks up another SD!

Dolly Stratzer (DNC - HI) endorses Obama, that's 2-0 today.; May 12, 2008 12:28 PM
jpsedona said...: Since Friday Obama has picked up 9 SD's; Clinton's net is zero. This includes Kevin Rodgriguez (VI) who switched from Hillary and Keith Roark (ID) who is scheduled to endorse Obama in a few hours.; May 12, 2008 12:30 PM
Yamaka said...: "Money, math & mommentum... she has none of these."

jp:

Sorry to point out: RodentmickyinMD will not like your spelling errors!

I fully agree with you on Money.

But HRC has Message that will trump Money at the end of the day.

Math and Momentum: A fuzzy math and a faulty Momentum - all most all of the remaining 6 Contests will go to my Million Dollar Girl Hillary.

The Popular Vote will turn in her favor, which will be the Game Changer, IMHO.

Please wait till June 4th Morning.

:-); May 12, 2008 12:30 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

you said: "all most all of the remaining 6 Contests will go to my Million Dollar Girl Hillary"

1) I think it's possible for her to win WV, KY & PR. Voting in OR has been on-going for a while now because of the mail-in voting process there. It's possible that she could win in SD or MT, but highly unlikely IMO.

2) As for your "million dollar girl", if she were the 20 million dollar girl, she'd be at about zero in campaign money...; May 12, 2008 12:46 PM
Squirrel said...: Yamaka,

No, we simply wait until Obama has 2024.5 delegates, that is the rule, then he is the presumptive nominee for sure!

You don't like it, your candidate doesn't like it, well tough, those are the rules she agreed to. Or is she not a woman of her word (well we already know she isn't, so don't bother answering that one.); May 12, 2008 12:51 PM
Yamaka said...: "No, we simply wait until Obama has 2024.5 delegates, that is the rule, then he is the presumptive nominee for sure!"

Sq:

In Full Inclusive Democracy the Voters are the Masters of the Universe!

Probably not in Kenya, where Raila Odinga, BHO Jr's cousin is inflicting mayhem!

Ballots are more powerful than any arcane moribund ill-implemented Rule of the decaying Democratic Party!

All Party Rules AND Candidates must just obey to the Supremacy of the Voters.

Therefore, Count ALL Votes from ALL States, Seat ALL Delegate. That's fair and legitimate.

Do you know the majestic meaning of the words "Legitimacy and Fairness"? Know it and FEEL it!

:-); May 12, 2008 1:00 PM
UUbuntu said...: I'm finishing Dreams From My Father now (please note the lack of the word "The" in the title), and I can only say this to you, Yamaka: Either you have not read this book (and are lying when you say that you have) or you have read the book but were unable to comprehend its message.

Jim (May 12, 2008 11:53 AM) -- you are right about 527s. There is much in his past (and in his book) that, when taken out of context, sounds pretty bizarre, as they represent points of view held by a wide variety of people he met throughout his life. In many cases, these out-of-context passages represent points of view that he discards (with explanations) later as part of his growth toward adulthood.

However, I think that conservative 527 groups are far more likely to put out dishonest, yet effective commercials like this one, than they are to attempt to pull out quotes from his book, since checking a book's factual context and message is too easy, and since video images are better at manipulating fears than are book excerpts.

It's up to us as voters and participants to oppose this kind of campaigning by voting against its message working for the candidates that these organizations oppose. Wishing for a different or better candidates does nothing but support their messages.; May 12, 2008 1:03 PM
ed iglehart said...: Yam & Jim,

Eat yer hearts out!

Smile!
xx
ed; May 12, 2008 1:03 PM
Yamaka said...: tyler:

I read part of the Dream in the library (I didn't want to pay for it!)

The Title was totally inappropriate. There is nothing inside the book to support such a title, IMHO.

It is a mediocre book, not worth spending any money on it (I told you I am frugal man!).

Folks, just read it in the Book Store/Library, don't buy it!

My son used the Title of the second book Audacity in his stirring Valedictory Speech for the graduating senior high school in 2007.

Now, he is disillusioned of his Candidate.

He says Barack is just another politician from Chicago, nothing more nothing less.

He cannot be a role model for the younger generation.

He Breached the Trust! He is a Liar, like any other politician!!

:-); May 12, 2008 1:19 PM
Richard said...: What is this word 'wallah' I keep seeing a certain poster using? It doesn't seem to make sense in context. Webster's says it means "person in charge of or associated with" and is usually used in combinations, but he seems to be using it as an interjection...

Unless by some chance he means voila.

People who pretentiously sprinkle their writing with French words should really be sure to spell them correctly.; May 12, 2008 1:26 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Yam mentioned Obama's book. It is well worth the time to read to see the struggles Obama had trying to figure out who he was and what turned him into the person he is.

And for those that think Obama isn't experienced enough to be President, you will see the years of experience that he truely has.

Like his community organizer role. It goes back over 20 years of him bringing groups together to improve communities and people's lives. In Chicago, when others were about to give up, Obama brought the politicians (black & white, Republican & Democrat) together as well as Catholics, Baptists, Methodist, Muslins, Jewish, Atheist, and others to tackle the problems that the community had.

He wasn't the follower, he was the leader in that work.

Oh yeah, it was a Jewish man, that hired him to work for the Catholic community organizers.

(Yam, kind of surprised that you forgot to mention that Obama's father didn't have documentation of divorce from his first wife. But then again, since it was a tribal wedding and there was no documentation of the marriage)

;o); May 12, 2008 1:27 PM
ed iglehart said...: "coal ad
and some clear speaking.
Obama on coal

And, from a Kentucky political website

xx
ed; May 12, 2008 1:38 PM
Yamaka said...: "As for your "million dollar girl", if she were the 20 million dollar girl, she'd be at about zero in campaign money..."

jp:

I know BHO and all of his supporters are ecstatic that they have huge MoneyBags under writing the Campaign.

But, vast majority of American Voters pause and ask the question,

"How in God's name he gets so much money? We are all pinching for extra cash, the country is in recession; we empathize with Hillary, Go Girl Go, you don't NEED that much money, for we ARE with you"

IMHO, Money is going to be the rope that would hang him at the end of the day!

Wait and See. It's "the Message, Stupid" the mantra of the day.

:-); May 12, 2008 1:39 PM
ed iglehart said...: Yamaka,

In the interest of truth, I think you should cease the use of IMHO and substitute IMO.; May 12, 2008 1:44 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

Obama's ability to raise money from the masses is what will convince the DNC SD's to endorse him. The sheer number of donors (another measure of popularity) dwarfs Hillary's campaign. He, not she, can help fill the DNC coffers.

For such political experts, either the Clintons underestimated the Internet, didn't understand it or her message didn't connect.

Also, it was Hillary's 'wealthy donors' who were willing to underwrite the MI revote.

That he's able to outspend her 3-1 or more is a sign of her weakness and his strength.

Maybe it's a sign that her handling of economic issues (deficit spending) wouldn't exactly be good for the country?; May 12, 2008 1:53 PM
UUbuntu said...: Yamaka: "I read part of the Dream in the library (I didn't want to pay for it!)"

So, let's see. You read "part of" Dreams From My Father in the Library, but the quote you give is from page 261, and you happened to remember it verbatim? That's a truly amazing feat, not to mention coincidental!

Did you simply open the book to a series of random pages and happen to read the passages you quote on this blog (there've been several over the weeks), or did you not read the book at all, but copy select quote from Republican-approved locations like this site that you visit regularly? Or maybe this site? Or perhaps it was from my personal favorite, this site.

Come on, Yamaka. You've never even held his book in your hands. Admit it. It's OK, I don't mind. Being truthful will set your mind free from the Republican poison you've been reading.; May 12, 2008 1:55 PM
Squirrel said...: Yamaka says

"Do you know the majestic meaning of the words "Legitimacy and Fairness"? Know it and FEEL it!"

My answer is simple, yes I do, that is why I detest Clinton, she doesn't!; May 12, 2008 1:56 PM
ed iglehart said...: Obama in West Virginia, attacking McCain and supporting Webb

Good stuff!; May 12, 2008 1:58 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Hey jp

I know where some of Obama's donations came from.

People like me.

I have never donated for a candidate before, but there was something about this young man that gave me and my wife Hope for this great country of ours!

Plus, we liked a bunch of his buttons and posters in his website store. ;o); May 12, 2008 1:58 PM
Yamaka said...: "People who pretentiously sprinkle their writing with French words should really be sure to spell them correctly."

Amen. Very exquisitely stated.

Go, get a job as a master spelling checker. And write an article on how to transform foreign words into English!

But RodentmickyinMD will be the competition!

:-(; May 12, 2008 2:03 PM
Squirrel said...: Senator Akaka's endorsement of Obama today makes it:

Obama +3, Clinton 0

And the day is still early yet!; May 12, 2008 2:03 PM
jpsedona said...: Emit,

Yamaka loves to use the term "big money bags" to catergorize his supporters who donate.

Do you feel like a big money bags contributor?; May 12, 2008 2:05 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: ed iglehart-

I turned my computer on late today and only caught the last half of Senator Obama's speech in West Virginia on CNN live streaming.

It was a very very very good one!

Thank you for posting the link to the transcript.

Probably by tomorrow the full speech video will be on YouTube.; May 12, 2008 2:11 PM
Squirrel said...: Idaho State Democratic Chair Keith Roark endorses Obama!

Todays tally so far:

Obama +4,

Um, what's the name of that other candidate? Oh yes, Clinton 0.; May 12, 2008 2:14 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: jp,

LOL - yeah, my military disability check is making me rich.

Let's just say I don't have a pool to go sit in.

;o); May 12, 2008 2:15 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Squirrel said: "Senator Akaka's endorsement of Obama today makes it:
Obama +3, Clinton 0
______________

Obama just picked up Idaho State Democratic Chair Keith Roark - so far today:

Obama +4
Clinton 0; May 12, 2008 2:15 PM
Yamaka said...: tyler:

Thanks for your response.

Believe me I did read part of the Book.

I was put off by the title, for no justification of it inside the Book.

It is my habit that I don't read cover to cover of ANY book.

Somehow, I quickly get a "feel" for the Book, its author, his message, his orientation, philosophy/ideology and the view of the world quickly. If I buy into his thinkings, then I read in depth. Otherwise, I conserve my time and energy. For I am a very busy man with lots of things on my plate everyday!

(I blog in between, just to keep myself in "the multi-tasking" mode, I am a crazy "workoholic" as Clintons are, unlike Dubya Bush, the complete destroyer our our Nation!)

For sure, I don't go to the sites you mention, never!

:-); May 12, 2008 2:21 PM

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