Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

We have decided to stop allowing anonymous comments. Not because we don't like reading what people have to say but because Blogger has introduced a new "feature" that makes you go to a second page when the number of comments go over 200.

It's very easy to set up a Google account so that you can continue commenting.

And please be excellent to one another. We do not accept name calling or any attacks on our commenters. Any objectionable comments will be deleted. Try to be civil.

Thanks!

Previous Open Thread here

New Open Thread here
Comments now locked in this one.

1207 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 601 – 800 of 1207 Newer› Newest»

Oregon Dem said...: Yam:

For your reading pleasure here is a rather well thought out article regarding the women's vote that I just read:

http://www.oregonlive.com/newsflash/index.ssf?/base/politics-15/1210425844291080.xml&storylist=topstories&thispage=1

Not quite a revolution rather a sharp divide.; May 10, 2008 12:31 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Larry Parker about Michelle being a good vp that has been the best joke that I've heard all year LOL LOL LOL LOL.Besides it's a moot point since it looks like we are going to have enough republican in office for enough 4 years. Jean; May 10, 2008 12:31 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in Maryland so your [meaning obama supporters] work on what he has done is true no better than mine saying it's not. Jean; May 10, 2008 12:34 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Squirrel people like you are the biggest reason I will try my best to get a republican in office over obama. Talk about trash that comes out of your mouth you are low down scum of the earth calling Hillary a tramp it's crap like that that makes people hate obama so keep up with the trash talk because it won't matter in nov. because enough Republican will be president. Jean; May 10, 2008 12:40 PM
Aunt Jean said...: hey my 2 year old great nephew can count to 10 you can't even count to 9 or should I say you think 9 means 10 how funny! Jean; May 10, 2008 12:42 PM
jpsedona said...: Jean,

On DCW's home page it states:

"Utah selected it's add-on superdelegate last night: Kristi Cumming".

They added her to the count today. So, yesterday Obama did pick up 10. But does it really matter which day? Since Monday, it's just been a dreadful week for Hillary. Depending upon the add-on's from OH & MA, you could be looking at a 4-0 day for her (instead of a 4-1 if you count Cumming into today's totals).

Why always resort to personal attacks? Just state your facts or opinions.; May 10, 2008 12:54 PM
ed iglehart said...: Jean,

"should I say you think 9 means 10 how funny!"

How funny indeed! You were arguuing a couple of weeks ago that 9.3 made 10.

;-); May 10, 2008 12:57 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: dsimon -

You can delete your duplicate posts by clicking on the little trash can icon on your post located next to the date/time.; May 10, 2008 1:05 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: "Besides it's a moot point since it looks like we are going to have enough republican in office for enough 4 years."
___________________

The word that you always seem to use is 'enough' and it is spelled 'ANOTHER'. I only mention this because I've seen the mistake many times before today.; May 10, 2008 1:16 PM
Richard said...: I've been playing around with numbers, and I have created a graph which I think says it all.

The Real Delegate Leads Over Time; May 10, 2008 1:45 PM
judyob said...: I have been eavesdropping on this site for months, wanted to post but in many cases it would have been redundant. I am dismayed at the nasty tone that some of these posts have taken.
I am a 59 year old white Jewish woman who has supported Obama from the beginning, so I am not a woman-hater. I would love to see a female president in my lifetime, however Hillary is not the one.
It's time to vote on the issues, and Rev. Wright and flag pins are not issues that will improve the economy, get us out of Iraq and improve the way the rest of the world sees us.
YAM, re drivers licenses for illegals, you WANT them to have legal licenses for safety's sake. I lived in a small agricultural town in CA for 10 years, large illegal population, and they all drive. We will all be alot safer if they have to take a test to drive and then will also be required to have insurance. Also, next time you eat a strawberry or a salad or drink a glass of wine, thank them because no one else will do that work. And they do pay taxes, they are withheld from their pay & paid by their employers.; May 10, 2008 2:07 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Richard-

Great graph!

Thank you for sharing it with us.

Obama / Kathleen Sebelius '08; May 10, 2008 2:19 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: For those that say they will vote for McCain versus the other Dem Candidate I have stumbled across a cool little site that lets you see where the candidates are versus each other. Can you really vote for a guy that speaks like this?

“I think that gay marriage should be allowed, if there‘s a ceremony kind of thing, if you want to call it that. I don‘t have any problem with that, but I do believe in preserving the sanctity of a union between man and woman.” "On the issue of the gay marriage, I believe that people want to have private ceremonies, that‘s fine. I do not believe that gay marriages should be legal."

Just say no to John Bush (aka George McCain).

http://www.selectsmart.com/president/2008/comparethem.html; May 10, 2008 2:22 PM
Amot said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 10, 2008 2:36 PM
jpsedona said...: Amot,

In response to comments to me on the 'FL & MI By The Numbers' thread...

I agree that the DNC is in a real dilema with FL & MI. The DNC is in part to blame for the mess that the party finds itself in. The cleanest resolution would be to apply the existing rules. But given that it could result in a credentials fight at the convention (by FL & MI, not necessarily the candidates), IMO the DNC will penalize but be forced to compromise. If Dean & other party leaders want to know who their nominee is in June, you can't have a credentials fight in August.

If a compromise is needed, my personal preference would be to enforce the penalty on the SD's. Carl Levin, an Obama supporter, and other MI party officials were instrumental in getting the MI primary moved up. Why shouldn't he and other MI be peanlized instead of the pledged delegates?; May 10, 2008 3:00 PM
Amot said...: Totally agree!

JPS,
if you had followed my comments I want those supers striped of their votes. I actually used some hard language on Mr. Ausman and his pathetic proposal!

What about that:
Seat FL supers with 1/5 vote each and MI supers with 1/10 vote each :)))

Emit,
I can't understand do you find McCain pro gay-marriages and therefore scary or against gay-marriages and therefore far from Dems values?; May 10, 2008 3:09 PM
Squirrel said...: Aunt Jean,

Oh deary me, the frollicks of knit-picking. Well just to put the record straight the Utah add-on was chosen on May 9th, and she was the 10th super delegate for Obama on May 9th, 2008. The fact that DCW did not list her until this morning (10th May) may be what is confusing you.

I would suggest rather than me learning to count as you suggest I would counter by suggesting that you learn to count, tell the time, find out about time zones, and learn to read and understand the writen word (then you could be of service to your candidate Clinton and read her the rules of the DNC).; May 10, 2008 3:36 PM
magia said...: "I will tell you that I don't believe in gay marriage, but I do think that people who are gay and lesbian should be treated with dignity and respect and that the state should not discriminate against them. So, I believe in civil unions that allow a same-sex couple to visit each other in a hospital or transfer property to each other. I don't think it should be called marriage, but I think that it is a legal right that they should have that is recognized by the state."

What's the difference?; May 10, 2008 3:40 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Amot

No, the scary part to McBush is that he keeps saying both sides and says, "It's fine with me"

Too caviler, especially like when he talks about being in IRAQ for 50 to 100 years.

The gay thing was just a quote from the comparison site.

The USA can not afford 4 more years!; May 10, 2008 3:45 PM
Aunt Jean said...: ipsedona maybe if people wouldn't try and smear the fact that Hillary only got 3.5 this week I wouldn't take it as a personal attack and wouldn't feel like I have to attack back so it works both ways. Jean; May 10, 2008 4:21 PM
Aunt Jean said...: ed Hillary won Pa. by 10 % it's not my fault you can't add or should I say round out numbers and for your info it was 9.6. Jean; May 10, 2008 4:24 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
Mike in Maryland so your [meaning obama supporters] work on what he has done is true no better than mine saying it's not."

Aunt Jean,

Do you have any idea how legislation is created?

Someone (if could be the legislator, it could be a staff member, it could be a lobbyist, it could be someone in the public) wants some legislation enacted. If it is not the legislator him- or herself, they take it to the legislator (or several) and try to talk the legislator(s) into enacting the legislation. If the legislator(s) agrees to it, they give it to the staff to work out the details and craft the language. The staff also looks to see where there are other laws that might need changed because they conflict.

After the staff works up the bill, then the legislator introduces it into the legislative body, with that legislator's name on the bill as "Sponsor". The word "Sponsor" means that is the person who introduced the legislation into the legislative body.

After it is introduced, then the sponsor gets other legislators in that same body to "Co-sponsor" the bill. This tells people that they agree with the bill, and will support it as it passes through the legislative process.

So, yes, it is rare for a legislator to actually 'write' a bill from scratch. It might be proposed to the legislator in final form, no changed needed. It might be a concept that needs work to put it into proper form and format to be introduced and enacted. Research needs to be done to see if any other law needs changed so there is no conflict between existing and proposed law.

Legislators do not do that work, but direct it.

Technically you are correct that others usually do the work on a proposed bill.

In reality, it is the legislator who does the work to get it ready to be, and actually is, introduced into the legislative chamber, through committee, through the legislative chamber, to and through the other legislative chamber (except Nebraska, which is unicameral), and then on to the Executive (President or Governor, as the case may be) to sign the bill.

Now with that in mind, what legislation are you talking about when you state that others did the work for Obama, and "they let him present them to help build him up."

Give us proof of what you are saying. Proof that the "they" are other legislators. Otherwise, what you state is deserving of no consideration of anything.

Mike; May 10, 2008 4:24 PM
Aunt Jean said...: leah once again if I want to put enough I will don't you know it's RUDE to correct an adult. I'm sure if I looked I could find mistakes in everyone post at one time or another.I do know what both word mean. I find it very insultingat what you did. I've also noticed that you have a very nasty habit of correcting Hillary supporters . I've never seen you correct an obama supporter are you being bias. So I'm asking politely don't do it again or you won't like what I have to say understand. Jean; May 10, 2008 4:35 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
"Hillary won Pa. by 10 % it's not my fault you can't add or should I say round out numbers and for your info it was 9.6."

Aunt Jean,

The numbers have been updated. According to The Green Papers (who get their information from the Secretary of State offices in the various states), the total number of ballots cast for the Democratic candidates in the Pennsylvania primary were 2,307,759.

Senator Clinton got 1,260,937, or 54.64% of the vote (actually 54.639024, but rounded UP to 54.64).

Senator Obama got 1,046,822, or 45.36% of the vote (actually 45.360975, but rounded DOWN to 45.36).

Now if you make the subtraction,
54.64 minus 45.36, the remainder is 8.28.

So you are correct that Senator Obama did not lose by 9%. He lost by 8.28%, or 8% if you round the number to the nearest whole number.

It's not my fault you can't subtract, or should I say round out numbers.

Mike; May 10, 2008 4:38 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

If you take factual information as a personal attack, I'd suggest that responding with name calling doesn't strengthen any counter argument that you want to make. Those of us that have been here a long time realize that you have a real emotional investment in Hillary's campaign. That you are a fervent supporter of your candidate is admirable. But if you let people get under your skin so easily, the personal attacks in response just end up detracting from your arguments in support of your candidate.; May 10, 2008 4:43 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Do you Obama supporters know what is wrong with the whoke lot is obama can say anything doesn't matter if he meant those words or not but let someone else say something God forbide you run it in the ground talk about being bias now that is being bias. Just like what obama said about the american flag what he said was wrong.Yes I do agree that it was totally innocent. But you can't give anyone else the same respect. You just ground it until it's sickening. Jean; May 10, 2008 4:48 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 10, 2008 4:49 PM
Amot said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 10, 2008 4:52 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean,

In discussing when an event occurred vs. when it is found to have happened, consider this:

The City of Baltimore created a replica Baltimore Clipper ship that was named the Pride of Baltimore. If was to be used as a floating museum, and as a good-will ambassador for the City of Baltimore by sailing to other ports in the US and around the world.

The Pride was launched on February 27, 1977 and commissioned on May 1, 1977. After the commissioning, the Pride sailed more than 150,000 miles in performing her mission.

On May 14, 1986, returning from Britain on the trade route to the Caribbean, the Pride was struck with what the US Coast Guard later described as a microburst squall 250 nautical miles (463 km) north of Puerto Rico. The vessel was hit with 80-nautical-mile (148 km) hour winds, capsizing and sinking her. Her Captain and 3 crew were lost, and the remaining 8 crewmembers floated in a partially-inflated life-raft for four days and seven hours with little food or water until they were rescued by the Norwegian tanker Toro. It took a few hours before the announcement was made about the sinking of the Pride.

The announcement of the sinking of the Pride hit the news on the morning of May 19, 1986. I remember it well, as I was serving jury duty that day, and found out what happened when we were allowed to go out for lunch.

Did the sinking of the Pride occur on May 14, or on May 19, when the world actually found out it had been sunk?

Another example:

The Battle of Little Big Horn occurred on June 25, 1876, but the first actual knowledge of the event occurred on June 28, when the calvary unit hadn't returned as scheduled, and soldiers found the battle site and the bodies of the soldiers who had been killed.

So did the Battle of Little Big Horn occur on June 25, or did it occur on June 28, when the bodies were discovered?

Your answers give us a good indication of how your thought process works. And then, IMO, you might owe a couple of people an apology about their ability to count.

Mike; May 10, 2008 5:15 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean said: "Just like what obama said about the american flag what he said was wrong."
_____________________

Aunt Jean please post a factual quote here of what Senator Obama said, because I have never heard him EVER say anything that was against the flag of the United States of America.
Thank you.; May 10, 2008 5:19 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Amot said...
"Mike,

'54.64 minus 45.36, the remainder is 8.28.'

Please, don't give her new energy to say he is better at maths, it's 9.28!"

Amot,

You are correct.

In my defense, I do have a corneal disease that interferes with my ability to see small print clearly. The calculator I was using (the one built into Windows) has a somewhat small display, and I mis-read the 9 for an 8.

Sorry, and my apologies for that mistake.

Mike; May 10, 2008 5:21 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: According to the Official Obama website - Obama needs just 157 more delegates to secure the democratic party's nomination.

It's getting close now!; May 10, 2008 5:23 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Think some people need a time out. LOL

Leah, I think Aunt Jean was talking about the NC speech where Obama mistakenly said father instead of grandfather.

And Aunt Jean, Obama said flag, not American flag.

See, I corrected an Obama and Clinton supporter. ;o); May 10, 2008 5:29 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Leah said...
"Aunt Jean said: 'Just like what obama said about the american flag what he said was wrong.' "

Leah,

I think Aunt Jean is referring to when he spoke on Tuesday night of the flag-draped coffin.

Senator Obama's prepared speech said "my grandfather's flag-draped coffin", but he misspoke it when actually giving the speech, and said "my father's flag-draped coffin."

The supporters of Senator Clinton should be VERY cautious when bringing that point up, though, as it reopens the discussion of 'sniper fire' in Bosnia. That was not a one-time misspoken comment, but a many-times told tale (as in LIE) by Senator Clinton, President Clinton, many of her campaign staff, supporters and hangers-on to her campaign.

Aunt Jean and Yamakamikaze? Want to continue the discussion of a 'flag-draped coffin' under those terms? A discussion of a misspoken comment vs. a candidate repeatedly lying about an incident?

Mike; May 10, 2008 5:30 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: emit and Mike-

Well if that is what she was referring to then 'that is silly'. He did not say anything to dishonor the American flag!

I SEE WE ARE STILL IN SILLY SEASON!; May 10, 2008 5:35 PM
Richard said...: Obama now leads by 2.5 superdelegates. Onward and upward!; May 10, 2008 5:44 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Darn it. Now that all the add-ons and others are endorsing - I have to run to Wal-Mart! Hahaha... I'll be back as FAST I can to see what is happening :); May 10, 2008 5:47 PM
Squirrel said...: WHAT A WONDERFUL DAY!!!!!; May 10, 2008 6:00 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Senator Clinton to not concede until June 15?

According to CNN:

Lawrence O'Donnell, a Huffington Post contributor who cited Clinton insiders, said Friday on CNN's American Morning, "They are saying that Hillary will be out of the race by June 15.

"What the senior campaign official has told me is that they will go through the final votes on June 3."

He went on to state the Clinton campaign would make its case to the superdelegates for about a week after the primaries ended.

"The superdelegates have no chance of moving over to Hillary Clinton in a week," he said. "So for the Clinton campaign to say we will only make the case for a week, and then by June 15, we will have a nominee, that is to say she will drop out."

The CNN article is in the CNN Election Center section, TinyURL: http://tinyurl.com/3q7jnq

MAYBE the Clinton campaign is finally starting to face reality, but just can't quite cope with it yet. When the staff starts leaving, we'll know the end is very near.

Mike; May 10, 2008 6:01 PM
Unknown said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 10, 2008 6:43 PM
Unknown said...: It is sad that the Democratic party is self-destructing by endorsing and potentially nominating an unelectable candidate in Obama.

Obama will get beat by McCain in November.

Luckily for the Democrats, Hillary will save them in 2012.; May 10, 2008 6:44 PM
RobH said...: jpsedona,

Even though DCW has not updated it's counter late this afternoon, the action has been fast and furious. Given the Ohio add-on for O, the Mass add-on for C, the VI endorse for O, and the VI defection from C to O, it's been another good day. I know you had an earlier post (few days ago that had "since monday it's 20 to 0.5") and I had one yesterday that said since Tues it's 15-0, but now it has a nice contrst of ratios, as below using your language.

Since Tues, she's gained four endorsements, but lost three to defections - net one.

Since Tues, he's picked up 16 new, three by defection - net 19.

To borrow a phrase:

Since Tuesday night Obama has been winning SD's by a rate of 19:1. Considering Hillary needs to be winning SD's by more than a 2:1 rate, the trend for Hillary is not looking good. Indeed.; May 10, 2008 6:53 PM
RobH said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 10, 2008 6:56 PM
RobH said...: It is great that the Democratic party is healing by endorsing and potentially nominating the more electable candidate in Obama.

Obama will beat McCain in November, surely.

Lee, why despair? Don't give up. Open your mind. Admit possibilities; May 10, 2008 6:57 PM
RobH said...: Oops, make that 20:1. Another SD from Arizona just checke in.; May 10, 2008 7:01 PM
Bull Schmitt said...: Oreo -

Finally! This afternoon has been like watching the end of the Jerry Lewis telethon.. you *know they are going to set another "best year ever", but they just hold a bunch of donations back to make a dramatic toteboard update right before "You'll Never Walk Alone".

;); May 10, 2008 7:19 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in maryland if you would of read the whole damn post I wasn't saying anything bad about Obama and the flag.So before you start flapping your jaws you need to read it. Jean; May 10, 2008 7:21 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey you Obama supporters how are you going to like having a republic in office again LOL LOL. Looks like obama is going to get away with STEALING it. Lets see there are 68 people in my family. with 10 below voting age the rest will be voting for McCain. Now ask me how many are democrats 43.LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL . That just makes my day.S U C K E R S . Jean Jean; May 10, 2008 7:26 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Not that it really matters but you obama need to go back to school if you count the SD's that [ their work means sh##] it wouldn't be 20 to 1.Unless you didn't count them which you may have.Besides it really doesn't matter. Jean; May 10, 2008 7:29 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Robh Obama will never be my president not in a million years. Tell him to go to Kenya. LOL LOL LOL Jean; May 10, 2008 7:30 PM
Larry Parker said...: Well after seeing Obama's superdelegate total skyrocketing upwards past the total of the Wicked Bitch of New York, all I have to say is...

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN, THE SKY ABOVE IS CLEAR AGAIN, LET US SING A SONG OF CHEER AGAIN, HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!; May 10, 2008 7:32 PM
Aunt Jean said...: robh you are counting the jerks that their word means nothing [if he's gotten 16. Then it would be 16 to 1. Jean; May 10, 2008 7:33 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Lee you are so right and the peoples are so excited it will be so funny when McCain beats him I will be laughing my butt off. Jean; May 10, 2008 7:35 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean,

Are you and your family in Tennessee and/or Texas?

No matter who the Democratic nominee, do you REALLY think that either state would vote for the Democratic nominee if the GOP candidate is McCain?

If so, you are not living in the reality of the world, but in a different, alternate, universe.

And if those other members of your family are going to blindly vote for McCain, but would have voted for Hillary, then they truly are not looking at the issues and positions of the candidates.

Or maybe all of them will vote for McCain just because of prejudice against a candidate of a different ethnic heritage. If so, it is a very sad reflection on your family, and one that I, if I were in your shoes, would not be proud of, and shouting to the world as you are doing here.

I remember in 1960, my mother was having a hard time deciding whether to vote for Kennedy, or not vote for either candidate for President. She came from a very anti-Catholic religious background. My grand-father (her father-in-law) asked her a couple of simple questions, "Would you rather have the Pope or Tricky Dick running the country? Look at the candidates, and how each candidate stands on the issues, and what the consequences would be if that candidate wins the election. Would we be better off with the Pope running the country, or Tricky Dick?" AND he also told her that Kennedy would be the President, NOT the Pope.

She did end up voting for the lessor of two evils (in her mind) by voting for Kennedy. She was not totally satisfied with his administration, but if you ask her today of her opinion of JFK, she will say only good things about him.

Mike; May 10, 2008 7:46 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Larry parker you are the lowesr form of scum on earth. May a thousand fleas infect your arm pits [probable wouldn't matter consider you lay with dogs] You are a JERK because you have an ugly mouth and you will be going where the sun never shines. Jean; May 10, 2008 7:49 PM
Aunt Jean said...: judyob you sound like one to me. Jean; May 10, 2008 7:55 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

You said, "Hey you Obama supporters how are you going to like having a republic in office again LOL LOL. Looks like obama is going to get away with STEALING it."

Well first of all, the only reason that a Republican (yes it is CAPITALIZED and there is "an" at the end) will be in office because of TRAITORS like you! Yes, you are a TRAITOR, NOT only to your party but to OUR country!

Second, how do you figure that Obama is "stealing" it? He played BY THE RULES, your candidate has done everything to change the rules in the middle of the contest. October 10, 2007 "We know that MI and FL aren't going to count for anything" - Senator Hillary Clinton.

If she had a problem with the rules, WHY did she wait until she was LOSING to contest them? If she was so concerned she should have contested the rules before ENTERING the contest.; May 10, 2008 7:57 PM
Aunt Jean said...: squirrel listen to me fu## head I was going by this site so if they made an err you need tyo take it up with them they had nine not 10. You are the biggest jerk that I've had to deal with so I will no longer answer youe post. Why because I'm a better person than you. Reason 1: I voted for the only once on the democrat that could beat McCain. I was going to make a long list but you're not worth my time besides reason 1 is more than good enough. Jean; May 10, 2008 8:06 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 10, 2008 8:08 PM
Aunt Jean said...: ED real simple 9.6 rounded to nearest whole number is 10. Jean; May 10, 2008 8:10 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

One more thing, I really hope that you are prepared to accept the responsibility of 1000's of more lives lost in Iraq and Iran. By the way, you might want to tell those 10 that are underage, they may want to start gearing up for the draft!

So now, not only are you a TRAITOR to your "core" beliefs - as if you ever had any - but you are a traitor to your party, to your country, now your ENTIRE family, as well as having the blood of 1000's of people on your hands. How does THAT make YOU feel?

Obviously you feel pretty good about it.....murderer!; May 10, 2008 8:11 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
". . . you are counting the jerks that their word means nothing [if he's gotten 16. Then it would be 16 to 1."

Aunt Jean,

The mark of good character is the person who can take into consideration ALL the facts and factors, and if they decide that their previous position was wrong, make a correction.

Senator Edwards admitted that his vote for the Iraqi War resolution was a mistake. Hillary didn't and won't.

By your logic, Senator Edwards is a jerk, and Senator Clinton is not?

According to legend, when John Maynard Keynes was challenged about a change in his views on something economic, he responded along the lines that when the facts warranted a change in view, he changed his view. He then queried the rival: “What do you do?”

That same concept can and does apply in a multitude of situations. Many of the superdelegates gave their endorsement to one candidate, but the facts and factors of them giving that endorsement have changed, they recognize that, and have changed their view.

But of course, in your mind, someone's word is more important than their ability to see a different set of facts, and decide that their previous opinion might have been wrong? I would rather have a person who has the ability to continue to assess the situation, admit that they made a mistake, and change their opinion, than a person who cannot admit error. The latter reminds me too much of Bush, who can't admit the Iraq War, among many other policies, was an error.

Mike; May 10, 2008 8:14 PM
Aunt Jean said...: independent voter. 2 reasons I would go against my party that I have always been. 1. I don't like or trust obama he is way to GREEN.
2. Look at the trash that comes out of obama supporters mouths. Oh yes before you say anything I've said several things but NOT UNTIL I read all the trash on here then Hell yes because they call someone that I hold a lot of respect for G##D### bigot BIT## and other things which show their lack of manners. I do believe that they need to go back home and tell their mother that she did a lousy job of raising them.[because of lack of manners] Jean; May 10, 2008 8:17 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

First of all, the whole "green" argument is BUNK!

We had Clinton....with minimal experience. Bush with minimal experience...and look where both of them have gotten us.

Clinton sold out our jobs, he injected discrimination into federal law among other things.

Bush, well we all know what has happened there, yet YOU are willing to abandon ALL of your CORE beliefs because you don't like some of Obama's supporters? That is ridiculous. Do we hold anything against Hillary's supporters? Most of us don't. I hold things against the candidate, not her supporters.

I don't go along with guilt by association, but evidently you do. That is your problem.

If people are held to the "guilt by association" factor for everything I would be serving a 3 year prison sentence right now. A friend of mine is serving time for drugs although I have NEVER done drugs in my life. Yet under YOUR logic - or lack thereof - I should be serving right along with my friend.; May 10, 2008 8:24 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean,

Typing "G##D### bigot BIT##" is the same thing as spelling it out. The image of a word is seen by the eye, then the image is transmitted to the brain. The brain then interprets the crooks and curves of the image into words. The image, as transmitted, is not the word, but only after the brain interprets it.

If you want to present yourself as someone who is not foul mouthed, but then type comments that include things like "G##D### bigot BIT##", you are being a hypocrite, and one of the first order.

Mike; May 10, 2008 8:26 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Independent all the obama's want to do is rub it in about Hillary. Now what do you think that it's going to do is make us more determinded to make sure that he doesn't get to be president. Instead of trying to win us over with kindness they insult us and Hillary. Instead of celebrating what he has done they are to busy insulting. I'm not such a sore loser that I can't say congratulation but when they start insulting me and Hillary well that is going to far. Just like Leah taking only part of what I said about the flag and posting it. What I said was I thought that it was an just a mistake of words and I didn't think nothing of it. But Leah likes to start trouble sometimes.Or act like she is better than some people. I hope you red this Leah because you know what I'm saying is TRUE!!!!! Jean; May 10, 2008 8:38 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in maryland I was repeating what an OBAMA SUPPORTER said. I didn't say it. Jean; May 10, 2008 8:39 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Independent voter Hillary has done more than all of them put together so please don't tell me that she has no experience. Jean; May 10, 2008 8:42 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Independent voter just listen to their words. Besides at least McCain loves America obama doesn't. In his church it's not america that is mother country it is Africa is their mother country. So get real and tell me again why I should vote for a man that doesn't even have enough respect for America to put first. What a joker. Jean; May 10, 2008 8:45 PM
RobH said...: Hi Jean, Rob here.

Jean, when your Mom went in for surgery, some of us, many of us, wished you well, and you graciously accepted our good will.

Hopefully, you will accept what I say with the same good will. It's not a slam, just an observation. I have noticed that your tone varies considerably in your posts. Sometimes we can all be OK, sometimes not. I've noticed you take real personally, slams against your candidate, as if they were against you. (Some have been against you.) But I don't get this:

You feel free to talk trash to others over their manners, specifically with language, and then you post something like this:

"squirrel listen to me fu## head"

That inconsistency is what makes things difficult, really for us all.

May I suggest to everyone here, the GOLDEN RULE? How about we trea each other, the way we'd like to be treated.

OKAY?; May 10, 2008 8:47 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Independent voter where do you that I said get guilt by association? I don't blame obama for what wright said. What I blame obama for is sitting there for 16 to 20 years and listening to that trash and not finding some other church. Are there not other good churchs? But that isn't the only reasons.Do you know what gets me the most about you obama people all the things that has been proven that he LIED about plus being able to buy a house when he didn't have the money. Plus all the unsavory people that he has been friends with and associates doesn't bother you a bit. Now even though there is no proof of some of the things about Hillary to you it's the truth no matter what because you want to believe that she is the terrible person you want her to be even though she has done many many good things . Jean Jean; May 10, 2008 8:55 PM
RobH said...: Oh, and Jean,

When you posted at 7:30 that Obama will never be your Pres. I'm sure you were responding to my 6:57 post.

My post was not out of the blue, I hope you noticed. I actually just substituted three words in Lee's post of 6:47 and resubmitted it. Pretty clever I thought, if I say so myself. Go back and check out the two just for yuks. But mostly it was to invite him, like I invite you, to open yourself up, to admit to possibilities, and to not give up on our party, (the pig roast that is.); May 10, 2008 8:59 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Rob I don't have a problem with that I did not start this crap.The reason that I don't say ugly to all obama supporter is because you don't get nasty and insulting to me or Hillary. I'm not saying that you can't say how you feel but I do believe that everyone should be respectful to each other and to her.By the way thumbs up for you on Obama. Jean; May 10, 2008 9:00 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike yes Hillary said that her voting was wrong that she wouldn't have voted for it if she had known the truth. Just like she apologized for the bosina thing and everyone said she didn't. My only thing I can say is when she was talking Obama people must have tuned her out went to the ladies room or what ever but she did say that.Jean; May 10, 2008 9:06 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean, I understand your passion for your candidate, it is that exact same passion that Obama supporters have. When your candidate and their supporters attack the opposition's candidate and supporters you don't expect them to push right back?

I have visited this sight off and on for months now and rarely did I ever weigh into the conversation, but occasionally I do. With that said, I personally cannot believe that someone is absolutely ready to throw EVERYTHING that their candidate stands for simply because their candidate didn't get the "prize".

That is the problem with this country, people simply vote on their emotions v. using REAL logic. You nor your family have clearly NOT been a recipient of the failed policies of the current and former administration. Me and MY family have been effected by DADT, DOMA, and NAFTA. I changed my party to Independent after Bill and his wife sold me and my parter out in 1993 when he signed DADT after he promised he wouldn't.

I have nothing against Clinton's supporters, it is the candidate that I don't like. I know that at this point, she has a lot of explaining to do if SHE steals this nomination away. She has a lot of work to do to get me to vote for her, but what it boils down to, is do I want to continue on with Bush policies for the next 4 - 8 years? The answer is ABSOLUTELY NOT! I personally don't like the idea of having blood on my hands or sending someone else's kids off to war.

I still don't know how you could EVER live with yourself know that you could have that much blood on your hands.; May 10, 2008 9:07 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Indenpent voter I forgot to tell you I have a great nephew that is over there right now as we speak. No I do not believe in this war but I love America also. Jean; May 10, 2008 9:11 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Well, just because I was getting tired reading all of the battles on this blog, I went to reread some of the Issue Positions on the McCain site.

McCain doesn't just want to keep the war going in IRAQ, he actually wants to increase the troop presence there. There are no more troops left, so get your youngsters ready for being drafted in 2009 if he gets elected.

Just say NO to McBush!; May 10, 2008 9:11 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in maryland I hope and pray that I can say one day that I was wrong about Obama I just don't believe that I am. It has nothing to do with his skin color [it really doesn't] and if you believe that it does well there is nothing I can do about that. Jean; May 10, 2008 9:16 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Independent voter Bill was a great president I'm not saying that he didn't make mistakes but he did so much good and life was good.Maybe not for you but for a lot of people. Jean; May 10, 2008 9:19 PM
RobH said...: Jean,

Thanks for the mellow response and the thumbs up. I appreciate tehm both.

Got a couple things to say, all good, I hope.

1) You said you did not start this crap. Well, that's as may be, but one thing for sure is you CAN stop it. Just by not responding in kind.

2) Not to beat a dead horse, but to allow me to choose, you've written the following two sentences:

a) "...but I do believe that everyone should be respectful to each other..." and

b) "Larry parker you are the lowesr form of scum on earth."

Jean, I choose a).

3) Happy Mother's Day.; May 10, 2008 9:25 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Hello fellow Democrats. I emphasize Democrats because of the reactions of some. Ed iglehart, I'm looking for that beach you posted about 668 comments ago.:)

OR Dem-Thank you for your response. Quality schools are our priority. We found a website called hoodriver.org. On the VP issue, why would the 2nd place candidate be making demands?

ed iglehart-Ah, such a wise man. I think that could speak for you, also. I just found a website called HistoryCentral.com. Here's another quote, this one about Vice Presidents' role-His Superfluous Majesty.

I read an article on Yahoo by the AP-Feminists are Sharply Divided. I'm not a feminist. I wish I could just work part-time now that both of our kids are in school. I do stand up for myself though. This made me think of an article in C-T The Swamp. It's asking for a new Top Ten List for HRC. I couldn't help but think-We won't burn our bras this time! Also, we're youngish folk that saved 9 yrs. to get our first home. Our appraisal value went up for the 1st time this year...WHY?!

Somebody mentioned Pollock jokes. I didn't realize I was telling one one day. Boy did I get my ears burned! I apologized profusely.

Independent voter-To back up to your comments about homosexuals in the military, how can they use that as a measurement of ability but turn around and start allowing felons to sign up?

Mike in MD-My family has managed to mix Irish, Scottish, Cherokee, and now French. Would that be mongrel territory or Heinz 57?:)

Bob in Vancouver- My husband has hiked in Glacier National Park when he lived in Missoula, MT. He loved it there. He says it's gorgeous.

quid pro quo-HRC has worked on veterans' benefits and Obama has also...this doesn't seem to have any point after reading today's posts and reactions. Does being in an anonymous forum create or encourage this venom?; May 10, 2008 9:27 PM
Bull Schmitt said...: Not blaming the kind people who provide this site, but it's a shame a few purveyors of FUD can ruin a reasonable discussion. If it's not feasible to have someone moderating, maybe it would be better to stop having open threads.

Sad, but quite possibly true.; May 10, 2008 9:27 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
". . . Just like she apologized for the bosina thing and everyone said she didn't."

Did Senator Clinton actually apologize?

I DO remember her repeating the 'sniper-fire' comments several times for about a week.

I DO remember Bill Clinton commenting that it 'was late at night' when she made that comment. Fact - It was at 9:00 am when the comments were made in ONE speech. Thus Bill Clinton's statement was intentionally intended to give the impression that she spoke of 'sniper-fire' a single time, when in fact she did it more than one time.

She stated the crew and passengers SAT on the flak jackets? The pilot stated you don't SIT in flak jackets, but WEAR them, and he would NEVER have issued an order to SIT on flak jackets.

Senator Clinton NEVER apologized, though. She stated that she remembered the events differently from others. That is not an apology, and admitting that the statements she gave were inaccurate. It is weasel-wording to try to get out of the problem.

Since you are making a clear statement that she 'apologized', can you link me to a legitimate source that quotes her actual apology? I don't want a source associated with Drudge, Faux News or the [so-called] Free Republic, Lush Rimbaugh, or other sites of that ilk. I want a legitimate site that actually quotes her IN CONTEXT, that demonstrates that she actually apologized for making those remarks, if, as you stated "she apologized".

Weasel-wording ("I remember the events differently than others do") is not an apology. You know it, and I know you know it.

Mike; May 10, 2008 9:35 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean you said, "Indenpent voter I forgot to tell you I have a great nephew that is over there right now as we speak. No I do not believe in this war but I love America also" and "Bill was a great president I'm not saying that he didn't make mistakes but he did so much good and life was good.Maybe not for you but for a lot of people".

I understand that a lot of people benefited through the Clinton years, it was mainly due to the "dot com" boom, which he had nothing to do with.

It is truly sad that you only see the immediate. Many of his policies didn't effect anyone until many years later. For example, NAFTA didn't hurt too many people until after he was out of office. Take the Magnequench magnet factory in Indiana as one example. These people didn't realize that they would be out of work due to NAFTA and other trade agreements. But they found out the hard way. That was due to BILL'S FAILED policies.

Hillary Clinton likes to claim the experience that Bill has accrued but ONLY when it benefits HER! It doesn't work that way. You either take credit for it all, or you DON'T take credit for ANY.

As far as your "great nephew" we expect many more of your relatives to continue going over, especially once the draft is reinstated. This WILL happen if you vote for John McCain.

You said earlier that "if she [Hillary] knew the truth she wouldn't have voted for it", well it would have helped had she actually done her JOB and read the intelligence report, but NO she FAILED to do her job.

She says that she was "duped" by the current administration. So we know that she was duped by a dope!

Yet then she voted in favor of the Kyl-Lieberman bill, which declared the "Iranian Revolutionary Guard" a terrorist organization which ultimately granted Bush permission to invade Iran.

If that is what you are in support of, have at it, I for one will have nothing to do with it.; May 10, 2008 9:36 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Okay EVERYONE -

I just got back from shopping and can't believe all the posts on here that have nothing to do with the issues.

Enough is enough.

Ya'll either stop cussing and attacking each other or just as the very old saying goes 'pick up your marbles and go home'.

.; May 10, 2008 9:39 PM
Independent Voter said...: SS, "Independent voter-To back up to your comments about homosexuals in the military, how can they use that as a measurement of ability but turn around and start allowing felons to sign up?"

I hear ya! I'm still trying to figure that one out myself. I'm also trying to figure out how a natural-born US citizen (such as myself) can be thrown out for being gay, but non-citizens can serve to speed up their naturalization process.

Go figure.; May 10, 2008 9:41 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Mike, Hillary did come on a press conference and state that she had misspoken about the sniper fire incident.

Yes it was a fabrication to make the story more interesting, but that is one lie I didn't hold against her. Other than it fitting the old politics pattern of telling the voters anything to get votes.

But that is politics. ;o); May 10, 2008 9:43 PM
Aunt Jean said...: independent voter the report that was there for her to read was full of lies so it wouldn't have mattered if she had reas it or not so give me a break. She was also against NAFTA all but she was the presidents wife. Also it wasn't just the dot com boom thing that was the reason he was a great president he did a lot of good. I'm sorry that you don't see him like I do. As far as the things that are going on now that is Bushs fault please don't blame Clinton. Jean; May 10, 2008 9:47 PM
Aunt Jean said...: emit thanks for telling everyone what Hillary said about the snipper fire. Jean; May 10, 2008 9:48 PM
Aunt Jean said...: independent voter no if you want to serve your country you should be able to just because you are gay doesn't mean that you are not worthy to serve in the military. Now that is being bias. Jean; May 10, 2008 9:52 PM
ed iglehart said...: Not for those who can't take a bit of foul language, The Last hours of Hillary.

With my thanks to the BBC for pointing me to it.
;-)
ed; May 10, 2008 9:58 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: LOL no problem Jean. I don't like lies being said about any candidate.

That is why politics hasn't gotten me going much in the past years. My personal beliefs also prevent me from aligning with either the Republicans or Democrats.

But I have seen something in Obama that impresses me. I hope that once the Primaries are over everyone can step back and re-evaluate their positions with the candidates that are in the race.

For me I started that process when the race was down to 4. I liked Huckabee and Obama. Huckabee is out, so now I am on the Obama bandwagon.

;o); May 10, 2008 9:59 PM
Richard said...: Now that she finally sees that her candidate has no chance of winning, it appears that Aunt Jean is no longer able to keep up the pretense of civility and has reverted again to blatant racism. "Tell him to go to Kenya" -- yes, Aunt Jean is a racist. In fact, she is the worst kind of racist: one who denies her own racism and masquerades as a liberal. I do not worry at all about people like her abandoning the party in November; I will not mourn their loss. I have no desire to be associated with such people.; May 10, 2008 10:05 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Independent/Jean

Obama has stated that Don't Ask, Don't Tell would be done away with under his leadership.

The "argument" against homosexuals serving in the military is the same as women serving in a combat role.

Well, having been in the military where I was deployed and worked with British, German, Israeli, and Australian troops at different times. Several of those branches have openly homosexual and women serving proudly. We never had a problem with any of them.

From one Retired Military guy, Thanks Independence for your service, while you could!; May 10, 2008 10:08 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Robh I feel better already and I really shouldn't let people get me riled I should let it flow over my head.Besides I had already calmed down and stated thinking again instead of letting my mouth run overboard. I wish that there was some way that we could come to an agreement about obama. I can't say I trust him when I don't. Maybe in the next few months I can change my mind. I really don't know [no promises] but I will promise this I will check on the things that I have against him and really take a look at them. That is the best I can do. Do I see myself changing my mind no but stranger things have happened.When I said if you look hard enough you can see beaty in everything I really do mean that.Thanks for wishing me happy mother day. Even though it brings tears to my eyes and pain in my heart it also brings fond memories and the love that put them there. Jean; May 10, 2008 10:08 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah I do apologize for what I said about you. I know it's not true I was just angry.Jean; May 10, 2008 10:10 PM
Independent Voter said...: Thanks Emit, I thank you as well for yours.

Jean, thank you for the comment about gays in the military.; May 10, 2008 10:12 PM
RobH said...: Oh Ed, thx. A rib-cracker.; May 10, 2008 10:13 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean said, "Independent voter where do you that I said get guilt by association? I don't blame obama for what wright said. What I blame obama for is sitting there for 16 to 20 years and listening to that trash and not finding some other church. Are there not other good churchs? But that isn't the only reasons.Do you know what gets me the most about you obama people all the things that has been proven that he LIED about plus being able to buy a house when he didn't have the money. Plus all the unsavory people that he has been friends with and associates doesn't bother you a bit. Now even though there is no proof of some of the things about Hillary to you it's the truth no matter what because you want to believe that she is the terrible person you want her to be even though she has done many many good things"

First of all, sitting in that church for 16-20 years. LOL!!!! I thought people went to church to get to know their god (NO I will NOT capitalize god) and for fellowship. I was forced to go to church until I was 18 - I moved out the day I turned 18 specifically to STOP being forced to go to a place that taught me to HATE myself - NEARLY every church preaches HATE towards gays. If I lived in Chicago, I would probably not mind going to that church because of the people (I'm a very social person) not because I buy the message of the preacher. I found much truth in what Rev. Wright had to say, I listened to the ENTIRE sermon of the ones that were butchered by the media. Had you listened to them in their entirety you too would more than likely find some truth in them.

As far as the "GD America" phrase, so what! He was talking about the reprehensible acts the US has done over the years for which we NEVER blinked an eye over - dropping A-bombs, bombing an aspirin factory in Sudan (under Bill's orders), etc. Our foreign policy has been absolute shit over the years, and when you keep doing horrendous actions around the globe those you have wronged are bound to come back at you, hence his QUOTING US Ambassador of Paraguay (under Bill Clintion), "the chickens are coming home to roost".

As far as the US government inventing the AIDS virus to kill blacks, yes, a little over the top, however after the Tuskegee Experiment, who could blame him for being skeptical.

Now you said that Obama lied, please inform us about what he has lied about. You say he has lied multiple times, please share. You should also be ready for ALL the lies Hillary has spoken to come right back at you.

Buying a house he couldn't afford? Are you kidding me? Had you REALLY done your homework, EVERYTHING in that deal was above board and NO wrongdoing was found on that issue.

Now you want to talk about homes? Bill and Hillary's home in NY, THERE is a story! Did you know that THEY (the Clinton's) could NOT afford to purchase their home in NY, NOR could they get financing for it? No they couldn't you know who did? Terry McAullife - WHILE Bill was still in office! http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D02E4DF163EF93BA1575AC0A96F958260

What associates are you talking about? William Ayers from the Weathermen Underground? The same one that did horrendous things when Obama was EIGHT years old? WHAT A LAUGH! Obama sat on a charity board with the guy, SO WHAT! Bill Clinton literally PARDONED two people from the organization. YES THAT IS FACT!

I have NEVER discounted the fact that she has done many good things, I am discounting her integrity. Had she run an honorable campaign without playing SEWER politics, perhaps I could have been more enthusiastic of her candidacy, but she hasn't and I refuse to be enthusiastic over her.; May 10, 2008 10:14 PM
Yamaka said...: Hello Democrats, Good Evening.

I was away for sometime. Houston is hot and I enjoy my pool very much.

Political Season is in full gear. Satire, Parody and Acidic Criticism are accepted form of Ridicule.

Here is another Satirical Conversation with Sen BHO Jr.:

-Good Evening Senator BHO. How are you Sir?

- Hi Yamaka, my man, What's up? Do you see a big grin in my face these days?

--Yes, Sen. Not only you, all your supporters -your Children-are in ecstatic mood these days. You are leading in SDs and pledged Ds. Congratulations.

Many of your Children say you possess 3Ms: Money, Math and Momentum.. very rhyming words. Whalla.. Senator, you made it. Very good. Sen Can you win WV, KY and PR? With your 3Ms it MUST be possible NOW.

--Yama, now you are spoiling my good, gaiety mood! Yes, it is true I have the 3Ms. But remember I don't have the MESSAGE, for which you need to talk to your Million Dollar Girl Hillary. Also, these States don't have large Black population, which is my bread and butter. Listen, while I have the College kids and some ill-educated affluent White men, vast majority of White men and women love Hillary. Plus I have this "Elitist" mentality (I went to Columbia and Harvard on Affirmative Action, if you don't know!)which forbids me to empathize with "the Blue Color Whites". In my mind I need not worry about them. They are mostly beer drinking crowd. I like Whisky and Wine type of crowd. You see, I have high-class taste.

--Senator, I understand you have high-class taste, etc. But in the GE, you MUST get the votes of White Women and Men. What will you do?

--Yama, the strategy has been to somehow steal the Nomination from Hillary first. Then, somehow become friends with Bill and Hillary, who will do the bull work for me. Doesn't this sound funny to you?

But that's our strategy. I hope Clintons will really help me to get elected to the WH. If they DON'T then I will be in a pickle. My BigMOneySponsors will cut my toes and break my knee if I don't deliver the WH for them. You see, why they spend this much money?

They are all K Street Operatives, lobbyists and liberal media tycoons. They want me to work on their legislations that would give them large loop holes, so that they can make tens of billions of dollar every year. That's why they Sponsor me, the Manchurian Candidate. They did all the leg work of organizing my campaign, recruiting all the liberal Legislators like Kennedy, Kerry, Richardson, McGovern, Pelosi etc. My job is to just read prepared speeches from teleprompter!

--Senator, then it IS very RISKY for you. Most probably, you will lose to McCAin, if you are the Nominee, because you don't have the Message, and mostly Hillary will give you some lip service! Why not then allow Hillary to compete for the Nomination fairly taking the issue to the Convention?
Remember, mathematically she CAN win by getting atleast 121 Ds and 200 SDs and clinch the Nomination with 2211 total delegates.

--Yes, it is possible. But my BigMoneyBags say they WILL NOT allow it to happen! Bye, Yama, I go t to run. Insha Allah we will meet again. Allahu Akbar.

--Bye Senator, Good Night, Sir.; May 10, 2008 10:16 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

Ok, I just read your note to Robh - and I have to say, from what I had read before you seemed to have been really crass. But I after reading what you had said to robh, I have to apologize for some of the things I have said to you.

I sincerely apologize. I think we are all probably a little too passionate in our chosen candidates.

In all fairness emit, HRC has said that she would work on lifting DADT, however I'm disappointed in her stance about lifting DOMA. She would only lift the federal provisions in DOMA. Which means if same-sex marriage or civil union (I don't care what it is called as long as the same rights are extended) becomes legal here in CA, and my partner and I move to a state where it is not recognized, then the federal government would no longer recognize our union because that state won't recognize it. It's very depressing when ANY government allows ANY form of discrimination.; May 10, 2008 10:19 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Independent voter thank you and please except my apology too. No it's not right or fair to show discrimination. I just don't see what all the hublou is about gay marriages there is some people I guess think that it's going to rub off on them how stupid. Sometimes I think the gov. can come up with some of the dumbest laws. I always thought that you can never have enough love. So why try to destroy the love that two people have for each other doesn't make since to me. What you and your other half do should be your business and no ones else and if you want to get married that is also your business. I'm not saying that I approve of it but it's really none of my business and it shouldn't be the gov. or states.I know that it might be hard to believe but I really am really a friendly person but do have a temper [ Cherokee and Irish. Jean; May 10, 2008 10:39 PM
Independent Voter said...: LOL Jean,

We all have a temper it's how we all handle it, and I'm sorry to say, I haven't restrained mine too much over the past two days....I'm a gemini after all and let me tell you, when my evil twin comes out, I don't always realize it until it is too late. Although I'm not Native American (at least to my knowledge) I do have Irish and German blood in me (I'm actually a mutt - but those are the two most prominent).; May 10, 2008 10:51 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Leah-the joys of WallyWorld. Sam must be spinning in his grave. His ideas have been so twisted. This place is now a necessary evil for us. We go to K-Mart(can't beat 48 big rolls of Cottonelle for $9 plus a coupon) or our neighborhood grocery as much as possible. Is this what our free market system(I've had Econ 101) was set up for? Undercutting the competition for pennies and putting them out of business? I almost walk out the door without my bags because they're still on that turntable. Oh well, such is life. I also wanted to say I've really appreciated all your stats and links.; May 10, 2008 10:54 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

You said that you don't trust him? So I would like to ask, what has he done specifically for you to not trust him?

You have some of my background as to why I don't trust Senator Clinton, but I'm not quite sure why it is that you don't trust Obama.

If it is religious ties (meaning his church and his pastor), to me it is easy to see that he does not share the attitude of his Rev. Wright. His pastor grew up in a different time and place than he did. He has faced discrimination but nothing near that of his pastor. You have to remember his pastor grew up during the Jim Crow era, and as Obama had stated in some of Wright's sermons, Wright had spoken as if the nation was static when Obama knows in fact it is not.

Obama in MY mind, and I'm sure many others that he is able to serve as a bridge between the past and the future. He shatters the premise of the mental picture that many Americans have of the "angry black man".

But like I said, I would like to know exactly what it is that you don't trust about him. I don't have much free time, but I have begun to read his first book and so far, I absolutely love it. I plan on reading his second book when I am finished, but unfortunately it is going to be a little while before I finish this one. I'm working on my finishing my Doctorate in Political Science. NO I NEVER plan on running for office. I do intended to be a speech-writer one of these days.; May 10, 2008 11:02 PM
UUbuntu said...: To Independent Voter: As far as churches' attitude to gay rights, and specifically gay marriage, I recommend you visit your local Unitarian Universalist church. The UUA (the national association that represents Unitarian Universalist churches) has supported gay marriage for over 20 years, and UU ministers have been performing gay marriage ceremonies -- which are legal in Massachusetts and several countries -- for a long time. You may be surprised at the level of overall tolerance and understanding on matters theological, political and social.

As far as interactions with Aunt Jean, I recommend caution in interactions. She seems to have a quick temper.

To the Obama supporters here, I congratulate everyone. I can say that I'm happy this race is over, and that this former Clinton supporter will support Obama's candidacy this fall. Together we can beat Senator McBush and work toward repairing the damage done to our nation over the past 8 years.; May 10, 2008 11:04 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Independent voter guess what I'm a gemini. It's my evil twin coming out sometimes too LOL LOL . The only thing is I'm also a identical twin. We are so different as day and night.My greatmother on my mothers side and my fathers side were full bloolied Cherokee and my mother grandfather was from Ireland. Then there was my grandmother on my fathers side was Irish and grandfather was Irish and cherokee. Somewhere in that mis there is a little Scott and dutch just not quite sure where. LOL. I have the high cheek bones [not so high anymore]age does that everything goes south. lol my hair is red in the sun but is a dark brown and down to my butt.[keeps me warm in winter and hot as heck in the summer]with green eyes. I do take care of myself though. Jean; May 10, 2008 11:07 PM
suzihussein22 said...: To All-Because we all have a mother. Happy Mother's Day!; May 10, 2008 11:26 PM
Independent Voter said...: LOL Jean, that is too funny. So we aren't just competing between the two of us, it is now the four of us! LOL

My hair is normally dark brown (I recently bleached it...LOL...and now I'm more of a strawberry blond/light brown). I'm letting it grow out to my jaw-line. I'm going for that whole So-Cal surfer look...LOL!

My hair up until about 6 years ago (obviously after being discharged from the military) was about 1/2 way down my back, and then I shaved it all off for a few years, now I'm growing it out again..LOL

Tyler, I will respond in another post. I already responded but somehow it didn't post it here....UGH, I hate when that happens. It was a pretty long post too. I tried using my browser's back button to see if it saved it, and NOPE, so I get to do it all over again. :(; May 10, 2008 11:42 PM
Independent Voter said...: Tyler,

My partner's parents went to the Unitarian church in PA, and we went with them several years ago, and I know that they were VERY nice people there, but UGH!!!! they seemed a little whacky for my taste..LOL sorry.

I myself am an Atheist, my partner is a Christian. I do go with him to his church (MCC or the Episcopalian church right next to us - MCC is better because I don't get into incense AT ALL). I don't believe in their message - it doesn't make sense to me. I'm more of a science guy than theology. I would however like to take a class in comparative religion just to get a better understanding of other people's perspectives, provided the class is NOT meant to indocrinate.

As far as you being a former Clinton supporter, thank you for setting your differences aside. I could never imagine myself voting for McCain, but I know that I could not be nearly as enthusiastic if somehow she was given the nomination. I can't say that I wouldn't vote for her, but I simply do not trust her, but I wouldn't completely abandon my beliefs especially when it comes to the Iraq war.; May 10, 2008 11:55 PM
Independent Voter said...: Happy Mother's Day to all Mother's out there.; May 10, 2008 11:55 PM
RobH said...: Well, the tone has changed here in the last two hours. Conciliation abounds. (Any props for that peace offering, in the first place?)

We just need to keep remembering that we're all human, we all have feelings, and we're hopefully commonly grounded in the idea that we all want to be treated humanely. And that we reap what we sow.

Peace.; May 11, 2008 12:12 AM
RobH said...: Oh, and Jean,

Your comments at 10:08 were heartening for me. I understand: no promises, maybe not great expectations, but the best you can do, and keeping an open mind. Beautiful.; May 11, 2008 12:17 AM
Independent Voter said...: Robh,

Of course, PROPS to you!

Thank you for helping us come back to our senses. Especially myself, it must be that time of month. My partner better watch out...LOL!!!! Get your mind out of the gutter....I meant the evil twin has been out the last couple days!; May 11, 2008 12:34 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 12:36 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 12:41 AM
Aunt Jean said...: To all the mothers out there you have a wonderful mother day. Jean; May 11, 2008 12:43 AM
Yamaka said...: Hello there, Fellow Democrats:

I am very puzzled to see that there are still some 284.5 SDs undeclared as of this minute.

Who are these SDs? Probably, I suspect that all most all the Obama supporters have already declared. Vast majority of these remaining SDs are Hillary leaning or the moderate types, unlike the FAR Left ideologues of BHO. I hope this is true.

I suggest that at least 200 of this 284.5 will go to Hillary if she wins most of the rest of the 6 Contests. This is quite possible.

And, most of the Piper's Children believe that the Piper cannot win most of the remaining 6 Contests. For sure he cannot win WV, KY and PR. The other 3 are very close.

This brings the good possibility that the Popular Vote could turn towards Hillary from a 80K deficit to 80 K surplus for her.

This is the ideal situation that she wanted to be all along. My point here is SHE WILL get this pretty good situation at the conclusion of June 3.

I am only hoping that these remaining SDs will just stay put till all the Primaries are over in June. That's only fair instead of jumping the gun, and possibly losing in the GE.

Do the Math again:

1890 + 121 + 200 = 2211 over the Legitimate Hurdle 2208.5.

Wallah, Yes....She Can...She Can.

Just a thought for your serious consideration.

Is there a moderate centrist in the Blog site? I know the Piper's Children will be agitated over this positive possibility.

It is also possible that at present the Democratic Party Officials are mostly the Far Left Liberals of the type of Kennedy, Kerry, Richardson, Edwards, McGovern, Carter etc.

Remember these are the demigods of Pantheons of Dead and Gone. The American Electorate is mostly in the middle. McCAin is Center Right and Hillary is Center Left. Far Left like BHO has no chance of winning the GE.

He will soon either metamorphose into a moderate with the timely help of Clintons or would join the crowd of the Pantheons of Dead and Gone!

Support Hillary at least till June 3rd. She will win the Popular Vote Margin, for sure.; May 11, 2008 12:45 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Yamaka she still has my support. I hope that what you are saying is true. Jean; May 11, 2008 12:53 AM
Yamaka said...: Thanks Jean.

You are awesome. Tyler has already left Hillary.

I don't know about Jim?

God Bless You.

:-); May 11, 2008 12:57 AM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

No bore at all. I thought it was quite interesting. I mess around with my hair all the time. I'm worse than a lot of women when it comes to my looks, I'm always changing it up.

According to my mother, I have a lot of family in Beaumont (sp?). I don't know or remember any of them (if I have met them).

It's kind of funny, that you too are a gemini, because my aunt (her name was JANE - not Jean, but close) and I use to share the same birthday. Her and I were/are (respectively) the only Obama supporters in my family (that I know of). All the others are, with the exception of my middle brother (he was a Huckabee supporter,) are McCain supporters. They are ALL die-hard Republicans who are absolutely single-issue voters. My mother and her husband vote based on abortion (even though the Republicans have really done nothing to stop/slow them) My father and his wife (although I don't talk to them very often) vote based on taxes (they believe they would be affected by Obama and Clinton's tax policies even though they make less than $50K) and my oldest brother votes on military issues.

They don't seem to be able to look at the big picture and see how all of these single issues are inter-related.

Now I can't say that I don't vote based on a single-issue (gay rights), however I also take a look at the big picture and see where that issue lies within the big picture and how each one effects me. For example, DADT effects not only gays, it also creates a strain on the military when we are kicking out fully capable citizens who are willing to sacrifice for the country. It would be an economic boost because it would put more money back in our pockets by extending tax cuts to us that our married counterparts are receiving. Abortion - well obviously that doesn't effect us, however by putting money back in our pockets it means that we are going to be spending more in the general economy. Therefore allowing for the creation of more jobs which would very possibly in turn create less poverty which ultimately reduces abortions. (After doing a lot of research - I had found that the poorer someone is the higher the likelihood of them having an abortion.) So it could have an impact, I'm not saying it would for sure, but it may.

Unfortunately, I don't see any of these things being corrected under a McCain presidency. And ultimately if it comes down to Senator Clinton getting the nomination, I will have a very difficult time voting for her, but I will eventually do so, just to keep another Republican continuing the current failed policies.

Wow, Sorry about the novel.
Dave; May 11, 2008 1:05 AM
Independent Voter said...: Yamaka,

I just took your scenario and made a spreadsheet (I don't know how to post it here) and here is what it would look like if the Super D's went with their states.

Obama would get 116
Clinton would get 124

There are 2 unnamed "at-large" supers and 45 unnamed add-ons.

What I did was I gave ALL remaining WV/KY/PR supers to Clinton and I split the rest of the remaining states supers down the middle. In states like TX - I split those (because of the split results - Clinton winning primary - Obama winning the caucuses and a majority of the delegates). I gave Clinton all the remaining NV supers as well as ALL the remaining OH. The rest of the states, I simply gave ALL the rest of the Supers to the candidate who won those states.

BTW I also gave Clinton ALL the remaining MI/FL supers also.; May 11, 2008 1:32 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 2:05 AM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

Yes, it makes a lot of sense. The reason I say this is because for years now I have used writing as a "healing" tool for myself.

If there is anything I don't feel like I can say to someone I write it out and then destroy it (whether burn it or shred it). Writing in addition to exercise definitely helps me.

That way I don't make anyone mad, besides the paper (or computer screen) can't talk back...LOL.

As far as abortion, I'm in total agreement with you. However, I also don't believe that I, as a man, should be entitled to make decisions with what a woman does in regards to her reproductive health. Just my opinion...LOL. I know abortion is not a laughing matter, but I don't want anyone telling me how to live my life, so why should I be allowed to tell someone else how to live theirs, especially when it is something as private as that.; May 11, 2008 2:24 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Independent voter said...
". . . and 45 unnamed add-ons."

Of those 45 unnamed add-ons, 14 will be named between May 17 and before June 1.

Of those 14, I project that 10 will go to Obama, 3 to Clinton, and the remaining one is the Nevada add-on.

How I predicted Obama's add-ons:

Colorado - 1 - a caucus state that went heavily to Obama

Kansas - 1 - a caucus state that went heavily to Obama

Alaska - 1 - a caucus state that went heavily to Obama

Georgia - 2 - primary went overwhelmingly to Obama

Wyoming - 1 - a caucus state that went heavily to Obama

Hawaii - 1 - a caucus state that went heavily to Obama

Mississippi - 1 - primary went overwhelmingly to Obama

California has already announced that the add-ons will be split 3 for Clinton and two for Obama.

Nevada is an unknown, but should be a slight favorite for Obama, based on his small lead in state convention delegates, plus the presence of Edwards delegates.

I ran only to May 31, as that is the date of the RBC, where we will get at least an indication of how the MI/FL debate will be resolved, if not a complete resolution to that sticky wicket.

Thus take your calculations plus my predictions on add-ons above, and it could look like this:
Obama would get 116 + 10 = 126
Clinton would get 124 + 3 = 127

Now the question becomes where can Clinton steal (and yes, that word is used intentionally) 73 SDs to get to the 200 Yamakamikaze thinks she would be able to attain?

Even if she got all of the remaining 29 add-ons to be determined after 5/31 (and I figure they should break 16-13 for Obama, worst case for him), she'd still need to get 44 additional SDs, and you were EXTREMELY generous with your allocations.

I don't see her getting more than 100 more of the remaining SDs (those who haven't endorsed and add-ons), and probably less than 50, just 1/4 of what Yamakamikaze figures she'll get.

I could be an admirer of his tenacity in supporting Senator Clinton, except for the fact that he seems to be living in a fantasy world, not being capable of seeing reality. Even Aunt Jean seems much more capable of seeing current reality than Yamakamikaze.

Mike; May 11, 2008 2:39 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave It's amazing how 2 people can think alike in a lot of ways. If there was more honesty in this world it would be a better one that's for sure. One thing that I do know I need to work on is jumping to conclusions. There is one thing that I need to do is trash my last post. I don't talk about myself to often. There are a couple of people on here that would probable hold it against me not being unfair just truthful. Wish it wasn't that way but it is I guess that is part of life. Didn't you say that you lived in CA.? I don't know when your birthday is but mine is the 19th of June 1953. I will be 55 but don't feel it [only sometimes] LOL LOL Sometimes I think you're young but you sound very mature. So is it age or life? Jean; May 11, 2008 2:49 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Bill Clinton switches to Obama ;)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-borowitz/bill-clinton-switches-to_b_100957.html

.; May 11, 2008 3:01 AM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

My birthday is June 8th, my partner's is June 7th....although he is 12 years and 1 day older than I am. I'm 36 will be 37 next month.

Most of it is life experience, grew up way too fast after my father left when I was 9. Mom worked two jobs so it was pretty much my middle brother (5 years older than me) and I on our own most of the time. I ended up doing almost all the domestics around the house, I mowed lawns and delivered news papers. I was in gymnastics 5 days a week from the time I was 10 until the time I was 15 (broke both ankles doing a double back in competition). I cleaned the gym every week to reduce my cost, I was on the team for 4 years until I broke my ankles. I paid for my training from my paper route and mowing lawns. I still go and do some tumbling every now and then, that is when I feel my age the most (if not older - definitely not limber anymore).

After I lost my 2nd job (being shipped to Mexico - in 2000) I decided to go back to school. Got my BA in Political Science, got my Master's and now working on my Doctorate. I graduated from SDSU in 2003 (I got my BA in 3 1/2 years instead of the traditional 4 - LOTS OF WORK). Not quite a 4.0 but ended up graduating with a 3.9. I am working on my Doctorate now while simultaneously working on getting my teaching credentials to teach American Government/Civics to inner city high schoolers. But as I mentioned earlier I also would like to be a political speech-writer one of these days. Again, I repeat, I do NOT want to run for political office.

So ya I've been around the block once or twice. It kind of sucks though, I am neck deep in student loans.....LOL! I've done work on policy issues on the city and state levels, but nothing major, mostly policy analysis.; May 11, 2008 3:34 AM
Independent Voter said...: Jean,

By the way, I know what you mean about people holding things against you. I have enjoyed the the dialogue that we have had over the night. But I have got to get my butt to bed. I have a paper that I need to write tomorrow (well finish). It's a 15 page research paper - UGH! I'm only about 1/3 of the way done with it. I'm doing it on poverty and how we can end poverty within the country. Unfortunately it is too idealistic, even for me. However, my professor never stated it couldn't be LOL. I'm sure she will be ok with it especially since I gave a presentation regarding jury selection with an idealistic twist to it and she gave me a 98% on it.

Anyway, I'll check in on occasion tomorrow, but probably not as much as I did today.

Take care, good night, and I'll catch you tomorrow.

Again, Happy Mother's Day to you and to all other Mother's out there (NO MATTER WHICH CANDIDATE HAS THEIR SUPPORT).; May 11, 2008 3:44 AM
Independent Voter said...: yousri,

You know I keep thinking about Sebelius as a running-mate. But after the address she gave after the 2008 SOTU address Bush gave, I'm not so sure.

I know she is liked by many in her state, but she seemed to be a little lifeless in that address.

Please correct me if I wrong on that, but I honestly can't remember a thing she said in it. I have to go back and find it on youtube. Like I said I do like her, I just don't know if she can appear "strong" enough to be CIC.

I will do more research on her in the very near future, but I have a lot going on this week.

I would also like to research some potential "crossover" running-mate candidates. Like Colin Powell or Lincoln Chafee, possibly even Chuck Hagel.

I know that Sebelius does have some "southern" and some Republican appeal, but I'm not sure how strong it would be.

Like I said I will do some further research on her, probably not until next weekend (I have a VERY busy week this week).

TTFN! LOL!!!! I haven't used that since the 80's! LOL

Ok, now I KNOW I'm ready for bed, I'm getting silly and stupid.; May 11, 2008 3:51 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yousri-

Thank you for the link!

I like it :)

Obama / Sebelius '08; May 11, 2008 3:55 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Here's what I've read about her:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kathleen_Sebelius

Goodnight everyone.; May 11, 2008 4:00 AM
Yousri said...: Independent,

I don't kinow much about her either.

I just did it for Leah, because he has her name in post signature.
That's all.; May 11, 2008 4:13 AM
Squirrel said...: At this great time I would like to offer my sincere thanks to Oreo and Matt (and any others) who have worked so diligently running this site. If ever either of you should stand for public office you should include this site as an example of how you will act unbiasly and only give facts to the public, whether palatable or otherwise.

I have at times been frustrated by your absolute adherence to the standads set, but you have always listened to reasoned arguments and either adjusted or maintained the standards but always in total fairness, and more importantly maintained total visibility with your recording of the events as they occured. Could I have done the same, I doubt it, and therefore I salute you.

To everyone on this site, come November the GE will decide the future of not only the US but also the path forward for its allies and friends, but more importantly for the whole planet that we inhabit.

I would urge all, and I do mean 'all', those who can participate in the election of the next President of the US to not waste their vote by abstaining. Look at both candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama and weigh the choice of the future each would lay out as the future. Whichever of these two candidates you choose then vote for them.; May 11, 2008 5:35 AM
ed iglehart said...: Leah, Thanks for the story about Bill's defection.

Yousri, Thanks for being there.

Independent, Trinity United (Obama's church)
explicitly welcomes LGBT folk. I realise it would be a long commute. ;-)

Jean, Nice to see the good twin in the ascendant.

Squirrel, Right on!

All, Happy Mothers' Day (Ours in UK was a while ago) Don't bother to add to Hallmark's riches - a handmade card is worth far more, or even a spoken word.

From a sunny mid-day in Scotland,
Slainte!
ed; May 11, 2008 8:08 AM
jpsedona said...: Interesting that on Meet The Press, McAuliffe said he accept a 50% penalty for both FL & MI if delegates were seated based on the primary results.

I suspect this is so that they can use the popular vote totals in their argument to win SD's.; May 11, 2008 10:44 AM
dsimon said...: Yamaka: Who are these SDs? Probably, I suspect that all most all the Obama supporters have already declared. Vast majority of these remaining SDs are Hillary leaning or the moderate types, unlike the FAR Left ideologues of BHO.

I don't see any basis for those assumptions. I would have thought that if there were masses of undeclared Clinton superdelegates out there, some of them would have committed after PA when she could have used the "momentum" (which I don't believe in--each candidate has won just about everywhere that candidate has been expected to win, but they like spinning it as momenutm). Also, some superdelegates may plan to support the winner of the pledged delegate count and are just waiting for it to be definitively settled.

And many of the superdelegates who have committed for Obama are hardly "far-left." I mean, Senators Ben Nelson and Bob Casey? Obama supporters run the spectrum of the party, as do Clinton's.

Even assuming Clinton wins WV, KT, and PR by 70-30 and splits the rest (very optimistic scenario), Obama is still left with a 110 pledged delegate lead. That means she'd need 72% of the remaining 250.5 superdelegates to win, or a nearly 3:1 break.

And since the pledged delegate leader will likely control the credentials committee, it's unlikely that MI and FL will be allowed to change the result that would have obtained without them. I suspect (and this is speculation on my part) that Obama's overall lead will be large enough to seat those delegations, but there will be some penalty to provide a disincentive for states to vote early (otherwise things will be even worse next time).; May 11, 2008 10:50 AM
ed iglehart said...: JP,

"I suspect this is so that they can use the popular vote totals in their argument to win SD's."

Even With Florida, Real Clear Politics shows a popular vote lead for Obama of 1.3 million, and the total popular vote in Michigan was less than 600,000, so I don't see where Ms Clinton can have any hope os contriving a majority using even the most contorted calculation.

I wouldn't want to be in the bunker.

xx
ed; May 11, 2008 10:56 AM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

I read your posts from last night. I agree that if MI & FL get seated in full, she still has a mathematical chance, slim though it is.

As far as PR is concerned, I am very interested to see how that primary turns out. I am not sure that Hillary will pull off a victory there. She might, but by the time that primary rolls around, it really may not matter.

As for the 3M's... money, momentum & math... he certainly has them. As for message, obviously Hillary's message has not done it for her; she has momentum too... unfirtunately it's downward; money... well sure she can pitch in more from the 'ol bank account (and convince her supporters to donate so she can pay off Mark Penn); as math.. well, she needs to change the goals to win... if FL & MI get seated at 1/2 strength, it will be close to mathematically over.; May 11, 2008 10:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Sometimes you can look to a person's genes for guidance as to their inclinations.
Down here in Texas, having a low-life Father can be a detriment.; May 11, 2008 10:56 AM
dsimon said...: jpsedona: McAuliffe said he accept a 50% penalty for both FL & MI if delegates were seated based on the primary results.

I suspect this is so that they can use the popular vote totals in their argument to win SD's.

But when the Clinton campaign used MI in the popular vote totals, they count ZERO votes for everyone except Clinton. So would Clinton get half of her 73 delegates and everyone else get zero? How would the "uncommitted" vote get resolved?

There are many, many problems with the Michigan vote (for instance, that tens of thousands of Democrats voted in the Republican primary because they were told the Democratic primary wasn't going to mean anything, thereby skewing the results). The Clinton campaign's count of zero votes for any of the other major candidates severely undercuts their proposal to just accept the Michigan results, since that can't possibly represent the will of the electorate.

But in the end, it may not matter; I think it depends on where the delegate lead ends up. The cushion may be large enough to resolve MI and FL, with some penalty to discourage states from voting early. It just may be too early for a deal at the moment.; May 11, 2008 10:59 AM
Yamaka said...: Rodentinmaryland:

I usually avoided you because I know you one of the many FAR LEFT Liberals in this blog spot.

Let me challenge you:

1. In the past 30 years since Carter, the American Electorate has moved decidedly to near Center. What gives you any clue that your Manchurian Candidate - a bonafide bleeding Liberal - would win the GE? With just 16.6 million votes so far, how may EVs will he get, unless he moves shamelessly towards the Middle?

2. A Reverse Discrimination is going on in the Democratic Party: the Party is dominated by the Jim Clyburns of the world - the FAR Left Liberals and the Black Caucus: White men and women are asked to ride at the Back of the Bus. This is the beginning of the End of the Party, as we know it.

This message of Reverse Discrimination is catching fire in the heartland of America. The fire would destroy the Democratic Party, as it should, and from the ashes of it will emerge the more prudent representative inclusive Party that used to be during the 1990s.

3. Rodent, allow the Process to proceed w/o tilting the field more and more against Hillary, who will prevail against all man-made obstacles - all Party-made obstacles, and clinch the Nomination with 2211 total delegates. With Money, Math and Momentum why can't BHO win ALL the remaining Contests?

Technically, SDs can really vote only at the Convention in late Aug. Between now and then 111 things CAN happen. They CAN change their declaration many times over till the final vote at the Convention.

Hold on your Champaign till then, otherwise you come across as an undemocratic rodent of rotting frontal cortex, IMHO.
:-(; May 11, 2008 11:00 AM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

you said: "Who are these SDs? Probably, I suspect that all most all the Obama supporters have already declared."

The facts are that week after week, Clinton supporters are abandoning her (how many defectors from Obama to Clinton have there been?). Daily, Obama endorsements from SD's trickle in. There are many SD's that are waiting to endorse for Obama as the pledged delegate leader.

I am certain there are also Hillary supporters hoping that she can get a popular total so they can justify their support of her.

Some high profile SD's will wait until after June 3, but they're decided one way or the other.

You also said: "I suggest that at least 200 of this 284.5 will go to Hillary if she wins most of the rest of the 6 Contests. This is quite possible."

Possible, true. "Quite Possible", not likely. In her current depsperate situation she would be rolling out endorsements if there were any. She had to get on a conference call with her current SD's to try to stem the flow of defectors.

My prediction is that Hillary will finish her campaign with less than half the SD's. Without the majority, she loses.; May 11, 2008 11:08 AM
jpsedona said...: Ed,

I didn't say that Hillary would convince anyone with the popular vote. Incorporating MI votes in the popular vote total isn't going to convince anyone other than a SD that was planning / wanting to support Hillary to begin with. Including the vote totals from PR is also a dubious argument.

You can bet that the Clinton campaign will exclude the 4 caucus states who didn't report popular from their vote totals. So, Obama's lead with FL & MI is about 113,000 using 'clinton math'.

As we all know, the only math that counts is the delegate math...; May 11, 2008 11:17 AM
jpsedona said...: dsimon,

Remember when Bill was talking about fairy tales? Hillary's campaign is promoting their own fairy tale with all their claims about popular vote.

There may be some party insiders that want to use it as a basis for supporting her, but let's face it... most of the undecided are not stupid enough to believe it.; May 11, 2008 11:22 AM
Yamaka said...: jp:

I know you want to give all the chances in the world for BHO to clinch the Nomination!

However, I still maintain that ANY thing CAN happen between now and the Convention.

Working White America is just tuning in to the deleterious corrosive effect of the Reverse Discrimination set in motion by the current Democratic Party Leadership. This wild-fire will resolve many of the conflicts we are talking about now.

Just, wait till the Convention: we are in the very last 14-15 Rounds of the Championship Fight.

Remember, Clintons are the proved Champions in American Politics. New lightweights need to work very hard against the 1990s Track Record!

Fine, ANY thing CAN happen!!

Stay tuned.

:-); May 11, 2008 11:23 AM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

I agree that anything is possible even if improbable.

As for "Remember, Clintons are the proved Champions in American Politics"

They haven't shown it. McAuliffe is admired as a great DNC Chair (compared to Dean, who has been horrible). But even McAuliffe couldn't get it done.

The only option that Hillary has is to destroy Obama. So, if that's the type of Champion you want, all the power to ya.; May 11, 2008 11:30 AM
jpsedona said...: Jim,

You said: "Sometimes you can look to a person's genes for guidance as to their inclinations.
Down here in Texas, having a low-life Father can be a detriment."

From TIME:

In her own book, Living History, Hillary said her childhood resembled Father Knows Best. But Bernstein portrays a much darker image of Hillary's father, Hugh Rodham, as a domineering, verbally abusive figure: "Life in the Rodham household resembled a kind of boot camp, presided over by a belittling, impossible-to-satisfy drill instructor." But, he adds, "the experience of standing up to her father also prepared her for the intellectual rough-and-tumble that honed Hillary and Bill Clinton's marital partnership, and helped inure her in the arena of political combat."

So, yes, you may be right about fathers...; May 11, 2008 11:33 AM
Yamaka said...: "The only option that Hillary has is to destroy Obama. So, if that's the type of Champion you want, all the power to ya."

jp:

If someone CAN be destroyed in a Political Fight, let him be destroyed - the First Rule in Politics.

BHO MUST earn his Title. He cannot pander for mercy from anybody, definitely from the enemy, the Clintons.

He made Bill Clinton the Enemy Number One from his "Ronald Reagan was the Transformational Leader, unlike Clinton or Bushes" remark.

I challenge ALL BHO supporters:

W/o Hillary's real support AND moving towards the political Center, BHO is a dead meat in GE, only with less than 100 EVs in the FALL.

Can anyone take the challenge?

Stay tuned.

:-); May 11, 2008 11:46 AM
ed iglehart said...: An alternative transcript?; May 11, 2008 11:47 AM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

"BHO MUST earn his Title. He cannot pander for mercy from anybody, definitely from the enemy, the Clintons."

When it comes to pandering, Hillary learned at the knee of the master. Obama will always be a distant second to her experience in this area.

As far as the GE is concerned, CW indicates this should be a Dem year. The Dems have two candidates that have battled for a long time. In the end, there's not a tremendous difference between the two on issues. One has will have the most delegates at the convention... that's the winner. Pandering to the loser won't be required (and won't happen).; May 11, 2008 11:58 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Yamakamikaze said...
"1. In the past 30 years since Carter, the American Electorate has moved decidedly to near Center. What gives you any clue that your Manchurian Candidate - a bonafide bleeding Liberal - would win the GE? With just 16.6 million votes so far, how may EVs will he get, unless he moves shamelessly towards the Middle?"

You are using twisted logic.

How many votes has Senator Clinton received? If she is, according to you, more centrist, shouldn't she have received many, many million more votes than Senator Obama? According to any reputable and reliable source, she has received fewer votes in the primaries than Senator Obama.

"2. A Reverse Discrimination is going on in the Democratic Party: the Party is dominated by the Jim Clyburns of the world - the FAR Left Liberals and the Black Caucus: White men and women are asked to ride at the Back of the Bus. This is the beginning of the End of the Party, as we know it.

"This message of Reverse Discrimination is catching fire in the heartland of America. The fire would destroy the Democratic Party, as it should, and from the ashes of it will emerge the more prudent representative inclusive Party that used to be during the 1990s."

The message that is catching fire is that the economy is in the tank because of the Bush debacle, and NAFTA. Senator Clinton reminds people that it was President Clinton who pushed NAFTA through Congress with the support of the Republicans AND OVER THE OBJECTIONS OF THE MAJORITY OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY REPRESENTATIVES AND SENATORS."

"3. Rodent, "

Guess why I call you Yamakamikaze?

"allow the Process to proceed w/o tilting the field more and more against Hillary, who will prevail against all man-made obstacles - all Party-made obstacles, and clinch the Nomination with 2211 total delegates."

The rules state that the primaries shall be held in a specific window of time. Michigan and Florida broke the rules. They need to by given a penalty for breaking the rules, or in 2012 it will be total chaos. You might see primaries in November, 2011 if no attempt is made this year to make sure those who don't follow the rules don't face consequences.

Did you know that in 2004, Michigan wanted to bust the time window, but Terry McAuliffe (then Chairman of the DNC, and now with the Clinton campaign staff) let Michigan know that if they did, they would not be seated at the convention? What's that old saying? What good for the goose is good for the gander?

"With Money, Math and Momentum why can't BHO win ALL the remaining Contests?"

Senator Clinton had the money at the beginning of the process. She had the math (name recognition). She had the momentum - she had a seemingly overwhelmingly commanding lead in all the polls. She had a majority of the African-Americans backing her before the end of January. Why didn't she lock up the nomination early in the primary season?

Could it be that she and her campaign wasn't prepared? Didn't plan correctly for the circumstances? Didn't know the rules? Remember Mark Penn thought Senator Clinton would win 370 delegates from California. The only way that would have happened is that no other candidate would have received the minimal 15% of the vote to get any delegates. Poor planning and poor execution are partially the reasons that Senator Clinton is in the bind she is now in.

"Technically, SDs can really vote only at the Convention in late Aug. Between now and then 111 things CAN happen. They CAN change their declaration many times over till the final vote at the Convention."

Who said the SCs couldn't? Something could happen to either campaign, and cause ALL the superdelegates to go to one candidate or the other. One or the other candidates, or even both, could have a medical emergency, die, or be killed, and thus cause the SDs, and even the pledged delegates, to change to a third candidate.

But it's not likely. If Senator Clinton had some extreme bomb of a skeleton she knew was in Senator Obama's closet (and that is the only way she can realistically defeat him now), you know she, or her campaign, or Lush Rimbaugh, or Drudge, or Faux News, would have brought it out by now.

"Hold on your Champaign till then"

What does Champaign have to do with this? I'm a fan of the Indiana University Hoosiers, and Champaign is the home of the University of Illinois. I dislike the UofI Illini almost as much as I dislike the Purdue University Boilermakers.

Mike; May 11, 2008 11:59 AM
jpsedona said...: The first two paragraphs of an AP story from this morning sums up my feelings about Hillary's campaign:

"Hillary Rodham Clinton began her presidential quest armed with talent, tenacity, fame, money, connections and a team that knew how to win. Many people believed her victory in the Democratic nomination was a sure thing. Her ultimate failing may have been in believing it, too.

Clinton had one big problem out of the gate: 40 percent or more of Americans said they'd never vote for her. She was too polarizing. It's love her or hate her."

That really says it all...

Clinton goes from inevitable nominee to on the ropes; May 11, 2008 12:12 PM
ed iglehart said...: I love Reggae!

Catchy tune!; May 11, 2008 12:28 PM
Amot said...: Yam,
I am upgrading your current rating from 'idiot' to 'idiot and racist'

Jim,
the father's comment is a little bit mean. I know you don't like the current situation, but don't be personally offensive to other bloggers, please!

Ed,
nice alternative transcript!
One remark though:
Where did you see on RCP Obama leading in popular by 1.3M?

All,
Obama is not the nominee yet, and McCain is not GOP's nominee either! Both are presumptive nominees! If anything fatal happens with Obama - being it major electability problem, illness or else, Hillary will be the nominee, or Gore, or whoever the convention names, because all you realize that supers can vote either way. That's the role of the supers - to help in fatal moments. However - the moment is not fatal at all. If we talk about electabilty problems in the moment that will be Hillary with her AA voters problem. She has faced constantly decreasing vote from AA voters! She had 20% in January when Edwards was still in the game and dropped down to 7% this month... Both face some electability problems but none of them face major problem. They will both easily beat McCain and therefore we don't have to worry about that. He won the primaries, he is the nominee. Sorry, but he deserves it!

On the popular:
Hillary will gain some ground in WV and KY, probably net gain of 150 000 votes, 100 000 will be deleted in OR and most of the rest in SD and MT. So can she win PR big? Turnout is expected to be 500 000 or less. And Obama is not weak there. Maybe not so strong that he can win but he will maintain 60%-40% margin and lose max. 100 000 votes. As a result even counting 0 for Obama in MI and no caucus states, he will lead in the vote.

I have a strong feeling that Hillary will actually meet June 4th with less supers than she has today! Think over it!

And, finally, Yam, contra-question:
Can Hillary win the GE if Obama runs as independent against her and McCain?; May 11, 2008 12:29 PM
ed iglehart said...: "Where did you see on RCP Obama leading in popular by 1.3M?

Sorry. It's 1.3%. It shows over 100,000 with both FL and MI.

Salaam, etc.
ed; May 11, 2008 12:39 PM
jpsedona said...: The NY Times Superdelegate totals now show Obama ahead by +7 (271-264).

NY Times Count of Superdelegates; May 11, 2008 12:42 PM
Amot said...: No prob, ED!
I believe he will win the popular including and excluding everything Hillary wants :) Your opinion on my analysis?; May 11, 2008 12:44 PM
ed iglehart said...: Amot,

Your analysis is fine. Most of the facts are already in hand. The detail will fall in place in due course. If Obama wins Puerto Rico (possible), the cake will be fully iced.

One of my favourites

xx
ed; May 11, 2008 12:53 PM
Bull Schmitt said...: Why does everyone... or should I say why does anyone engage robo-posters like Yamaka anymore?

He's obviously a Republican trying to sow discontent among two groups of fiercely loyal supporters, nothing more. The Repubs understand they can't possibly win the 'battle of the blogosphere', so what they can do, is try to divide and conquer.

Sure, there are people with legitimate hard feelings at the extremes of the Clinton and Obama camps - but Yamaka ain't one of them, he's got to be for McSame. When people don't make an intellectually honest attempt to discuss issues back and forth - and only regurgitate their narrow talking points ad infinitum?..

Well, there you go.; May 11, 2008 12:54 PM
dsimon said...: Yamaka: In the past 30 years since Carter, the American Electorate has moved decidedly to near Center. What gives you any clue that your Manchurian Candidate - a bonafide bleeding Liberal - would win the GE? With just 16.6 million votes so far, how may EVs will he get, unless he moves shamelessly towards the Middle?

Ah, perhaps the fact that Obama does better with independents than Clinton does?

You keep saying that Obama is far left. But when asked about evidence to back it up, you provided only two examples, and I don't think either of them were far-left. Nor, according to the evidence, are his supporters predominantly far-left.

So it seems to me that there are few if any policy statements to support that assertion, and the voters seem to contradict it. Any thought to reconsidering? What are your sources?

And if one looks at web sites that examines state-by-state head-to-head polls against McCain, the Democratic candidates are doing similarly well (or poorly) overall at the moment. So I'd conclude, based on the available evidence, that there's no reason to think that Obama would be any less viable against McCain than Clinton.

With Money, Math and Momentum why can't BHO win ALL the remaining Contests?

Because demography has dominated more than money or anything else. With the exception of Iowa, each candidate has pretty much won where that candidate has been expected to win. There is no real momentum; there's only the happenstance of scheduling. Obama can no more claim momentum now than Clinton could after PA when she said "the tide is turning." And while delegate math will determine the ultimate outcome, it doesn't affect how people vote in any particular state.

Technically, SDs can really vote only at the Convention in late Aug. Between now and then 111 things CAN happen. They CAN change their declaration many times over till the final vote at the Convention.

They could, but under what reasonable scenario would they do so? I'd think that superdelegates, especially the ones who represent states or districts, would have though pretty hard before announcing their intentions. And those who committed later in the process--mostly Obama supporters--would be even less likely to change their votes. (And the only flips so far have been from Clinton to Obama.)

So yes, anything can happen. But it doesn't follow that anything will happen, or that it's at all likely to happen. If one suspects the unlikely will happen, it's helpful to the rest of us to put forward a reason instead of just an assertion.; May 11, 2008 12:57 PM
ed iglehart said...: A message from Hillary

xx
ed; May 11, 2008 1:04 PM
Amot said...: Ed,
that was inspiring message!
Do they have an archive with more of those?; May 11, 2008 1:20 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: ed-

I watched it last night on SNL - it was great! I guess Hillary won't be wanting to go back on SNL anytime soon!
I bet she is fuming today ;); May 11, 2008 1:29 PM
ed iglehart said...: Amot,

Saturday Night Live Video Archive

A favourite of mine

Enjoy!; May 11, 2008 1:29 PM
Amot said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 1:31 PM
Amot said...: Ed,
I already found it myself, it was a premature question :)
But Hillary will definetely not return to SNL anytime soon :)

BTW, those were good reasons :); May 11, 2008 1:33 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Bull Schmitt said...
"Why does everyone... or should I say why does anyone engage robo-posters like Yamaka anymore?"

Maybe to make sure that his fantasies don't influence some who might be still on the fence.

To rebut lies.

To show the illogic of he/she/it's thought process.

To make sure that such rantings do not go unchallenged. If there had been a few more brave people challenging McCarthy and the John Birch Society in the early 50s, maybe the world would be a bit better place now. Many of the rules in the radical right's playbook are lifted directly from the McCarthy and JBS playbook. Overwhelm the opposition with so many lies, repeated so often, that the public believes they are true when no effort is made to rebut them. If no one points out that the lies ARE lies, then some people might start to believe them.

Besides, I couldn't resist making fun of his 'Champaign' comment. VBG

Mike; May 11, 2008 1:45 PM
ed iglehart said...: An excellent piece from the New York Times

The tale of Obama's rise in politics. Well balanced.

xx
ed; May 11, 2008 1:54 PM
Independent Voter said...: I was thinking about the upcoming WV/KY primaries coming up. And I know I have been just as vocal about Sen. Clinton dropping out as the next person. But hear me out. I think Hillary SHOULD stay in the race at this point. I know many of you are going to say......NO GET OUT AND DO IT NOW!

ALL OF THE POLLS show Hillary being ahead of Obama by 30+ points in BOTH WV and KY. How would it look if she were to drop out and Obama were to be BLOWN OUT in those two contests against someone who is no longer in the election? It could be absolutely disastrous for Obama. Had she dropped out back at the end of February it would have been better, but since she had decided to stay in, for her to drop out now would be disastrous for us to have an absolute blow out against a non-existent candidate.

Just remember several years back, I don't remember who or where it was, but in a congressional district one of the candidates had died and he actually won the election. How embarrassing could that have been for the challenger....lose to a dead guy. It would be the same thing if Hillary were to drop out now.

So it is VERY possible at this point, this is what she is trying to do, prevent an embarrassing situation for BOTH campaigns. She gets to bow out gracefully on a high note.

Now I'm not saying that she will bow out gracefully, we all thought at one point that she would, but it is VERY possible.

Maybe I am idealistic in my view of her, but I'm really really hoping that this is the method to this madness. One is allowed to dream aren't they?; May 11, 2008 1:55 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Happy Mother's Day everyone.

Just a quick update from Oregon after our state was visited by both Obama and Clinton.

Both had well covered events in Oregon and both stayed pretty darn positive. The enthusiasm is great. As I mentioned before Oregon Dems have more than doubled their previous advantage over Republicans.

Latest polling indicates that Obama is up by 12 % in Oregon which is up a bit from his former lead of 10%. We shall see.

Though Oregon votes are counted on May 20th the voting actually can take place anytime the voter wants as we vote by mail out here. I voted last Sunday and mailed my ballot in on Monday. As of Thursday the 8th 10% of the ballots had been returned, which is unusually high (historically speaking).

Obama's campaign got off to an early start (TV ads etc.) but Clinton's seemed to lag a bit. In fact, I did not see my first Clinton TV ad until last evening while watching the NASCAR race).

More Oregon super delegates are letting their position be known. Obama has three and Clinton two. One interesting thing is that Obama has the support of the two most noted women in Oregon politics (Vera Katz - former Portland Mayor and state legislator and Barbara Roberts - former Governor and Secretary of State) they are not super delegates but have been on the stump for him. Clinton has our current Governor (who is a super).

We will see what happens in the end.

Oregon Dem

PS - I was glad to see a somewhat more civil tone by many around here...

PPS I am still projecting 31 - 22 delegate split in Oregon for Obama (which includes the add on delegate to be selected at the state convention); May 11, 2008 2:08 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: After reading this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/weekinreview/11leib.html?ref=todayspaper&pagewanted=print

I would say that we all owe Hillary a big 'thank you' for helping make Senator Obama an even more stronger candidate!

Obama / Sebelius '08; May 11, 2008 2:10 PM
Amot said...: She has dreams of her own. She will not drop before PR. The next three contests are clear. But what will happen on May 31st (RBC meeting on FL and MI) and June 1st - PR primary, is yet unknown... If she lose both events she will drop out in a day or two. If she wins BRC she stays untill Denver, if she wins PR big and therefore some versions of the popular count - she stays until June 15th to see if she can gather some supers on her side. Big Obama win in OR, block on MI and FL on 31st, and win or narrow lose in PR will make it final. Obama will win OR by 15-20%, but he has to score more supers and lead her with 20-30-50 on June 1st and he needs to block 'as is' seating on FL and MI. A good deal on MI and FL with all RBC backing it will be better of course!; May 11, 2008 2:10 PM
Yamaka said...: "Pandering to the loser won't be required (and won't happen)."

jp:

I disagree with you:

1. Most probably BHO could barely get a lead in total delegates 2209. But she will have the popular votes by about 80K (after June 3rd). Because of this distinct possibility, the Fight will be nearly a draw.

Only when BHO secures more popular votes AND more total delegates I will concede that he EARNED the TITLE, at that point I will blog for him!

2. If he steals the final Nomination, HE will need to be overly nice/pander to Hillary to get her blessings in order to get the nod of nearly 17 million of her supporters, w/o which BHO will be a dead meat in GE - that's the essence of my previous post!

3. Please remember, since the beginning of Feb, structurally the field was tilted against Hillary because DNC and liberal media were crowing that 2024 is the Hurdle and not 2209 - that is, winning in FL and MI is unnecessary and useless. This is an anti-democratic instincts of the DNC and the liberal media.

4. In general, the Caucuses where BHO showed his muscle, effectively excluded her demographics - the older and working people. This is an artificial situation, will not replicate in the GE. This SDs should take into a/c, IMO.

Yes, BHO has money. Math, probably or probably not. Momentum, I disagree, because he is NOT winning WV, KY and PR.

Remember he had momentum after the Potomic Black Primaries.

What happened in all of Mar and Apr?

Ans: He is just a Black Politician/Candidate from Chicago, nothing more or nothing less.
:-)
__________________________________

amot:

You are a piece of human refuse, if you can smell it!

Grow up; You cannot take a punch!

________________________________

Rodentinmd:

You did not answer the qn:

How many EVs will the Manchurian Candidate get as a FAR LEFT Bleeding Liberal(for sure HE IS one) in the GE?

I said not more than 100 EVs.

Your answer is................

:-(; May 11, 2008 2:32 PM
Amot said...: Oregon Dem,
Can you give your projection CD-by-CD? And victory margin? My prediction is 30:23 and I wonder when do we differ...; May 11, 2008 2:45 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This is interesting.

Rev. Caldwell (Houston, Tx) is the pastor that performed Jenna Bush's wedding yesterday at the Bush ranch.
Today Rev. Caldwell announced that he is endorsing Senator Obama for president.

.; May 11, 2008 2:47 PM
Independent Voter said...: Leah, that is too funny! I just got done reading it when I looked here and saw that you posted it. Here's the link if anyone wants to read it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/11/jenna-bush-wed-by-obama-b_n_101202.html; May 11, 2008 2:57 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

most of Hillary's initial 200 SD's were backing the lead horse... she can only make it to your magic number of 2209 by keeping her SD's. She seems incapable of doing that. She is also incapable of switching Obama SD's.

IMO, he's going to continues the endorsement pace with add-ons and other SD's (40+ SD's by 6/3). IMO, her existing SD supporters are going to continue to desert her.

She can win WV, KY, PR by 70-30... no one will care because there's no level of expectation in those contests. She can win the popular vote by 80K; that's not going to convince many SD's, IMO.; May 11, 2008 3:10 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Yamakamikaze said...
"Remember he had momentum after the Potomic Black Primaries."

It is spelled Potomac, not the jibberish you wrote.

As to the racial characterization:

The population of the District of Columbia is majority African-American, but you might be surprised that it is only 56.5% of the population that is AA (per US Census 2006 estimate).

Maryland is 29.5% AA (per US Census 2006 estimate).

Virginia is 19.9% AA (per US Census 2006 estimate).

Since you are from Houston, let's do some comparing:
Texas: 11.9% AA (per US Census 2006 estimate);
Harris County, Texas: 19.0% AA (per US Census 2006 estimate);
Houston, Texas: 25.3% AA (per US Census 2006 estimate).

Total population of DC, Maryland and Virginia: 13,840,000 (per US Census 2006 estimate);
AA population of DC, Maryland and Virginia: 3,506,000;
AA percent of the three jurisdictions: 25.33%.

Hmmmmmm. Not a whole lot of difference between them and Houston.

Your racism is showing, Yamakamikaze.

Maybe the skit SNL did on Hillary was partially correct. Yamakamikaze is a very strident supporter of Hillary, and Yamakamikaze is a very racist person.

Mike; May 11, 2008 3:10 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Amot:

My guess is our difference is in CD 4 (DeFazio) which is the home of the University of Oregon and Oregon State University. If that does not break 5 to 2 there is a chance that CD-3 (Blumenauer) will break 6-3 as he is quite liberal, backed Obama for a long time and usually wins big (very popular).

Here are all of them.

CD-1 BHO 4 HRC 3
CD-2 BHO 3 HRC 2
CD-3 BHO 5 HRC 4 (could go 6 - 3)
CD-4 BHO 5 HRC 2
CD-5 BHO 3 HRC 3

Statewide BHO 10 HRC 8

Add on: 1 for BHO

Statewide also becomes a question mark somewhat as well. The convention may very well be after HRC has any chance of winning and may even have "dropped out." May be optimistic but the statewide may get proportioned 11 - 7, but only if the % victory in OR is by about 16-8% and a few HRC supporters do not attend the statewide...; May 11, 2008 3:28 PM
Amot said...: Mike,
don't forget I have just updated Yam's rating to 'racist&idiot'. I am looking forward to see if he is really going to bolg for Obama in three weeks :)

And the Houston minister backing Obama is real fun. But if he can maybe Yam can too... and maybe Bush will endorse Obama :); May 11, 2008 3:35 PM
Amot said...: Oregon Dem,
I agree with all your points. I must admit I had forgotten Defazio's recent endorsement. Do you agree that the turnout will be 700-750 000?; May 11, 2008 3:46 PM
dsimon said...: Yamaka: You did not answer the qn:

And I see you didn't address any of mine from my previous post.

How many EVs will the Manchurian Candidate get as a FAR LEFT Bleeding Liberal(for sure HE IS one) in the GE?

Again, no real evidence to back up the "far left" assertion. It would be rather amazing if Senators Nelson and Casey, two of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate, were backing a lefty loony. When I don't have evidence to back something up, I usually stop saying it.

As for EVs, again I noted that web sites that follow state-by-state head-to-head polling against McCain have Obama and Clinton doing about the same. Some places too look are:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
http://uselectionatlas.org/
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Some have Clinton doing better, some have Obama, and I think the numbers will only improve after the intraparty squabbling is over. And all have Obama's numbers well over 100.

Remember he had momentum after the Potomic Black Primaries.

What happened in all of Mar and Apr?

Obama won where he was expected to win (VT, MS, WY), and Clinton won where she was expected to win (RI, OH, TX, PA). There is no momentum, only scheduling.

And as for the race factor, let's not forget that Obama crushed Clinton in Wisconsin (not too many minorities in WY either, for what it's worth). Plus many if not most Democrats who voted for Clinton in the primary will still vote for the Democrat in November.

structurally the field was tilted against Hillary because DNC and liberal media were crowing that 2024 is the Hurdle and not 2209 - that is, winning in FL and MI is unnecessary and useless.

Structurally, the playing field was tilted from the start against Obama since Clinton had more contacts, was better known, and had more money going into the contest. But anyway, it doesn't take a liberal to see that sanctions have to be imposed to keep states from voting early. Otherwise, how will the party avoid even more chaos next time around? No one who supports just validating the FL and (the clearly flawed) MI vote seems able to provide an answer. It's not a liberal/conservative issue; after all, the Republicans penalized the MI and FL delegations by giving them half votes.; May 11, 2008 3:56 PM
Richard said...: Even if Michigan uncommitted delegates are excluded, Obama's current lead including FL and MI is 53 delegates. It seems to me that there is little hope of Clinton catching him. In fact, she would have to win over 62% of the remaining delegates to tie his pledged delegate numbers even including FL & MI. If those 55 uncommitted delegates go at least 2/3 for Obama (as seems very likely), that number becomes 67%.

And now Obama has all but erased Hillary's superdelegate lead even if Florida and Michigan supers are seated as-is. No matter how you look at it, it doesn't add up for Clinton.; May 11, 2008 3:56 PM
Amot said...: Yam was living in TX, wasn't he? Didn't anyone tell him Obama won Texas?; May 11, 2008 4:01 PM
Richard said...: Amot - I've been telling everyone for weeks that Yamaka is a racist and religious bigot, but everyone kept insisting that he was just being silly. *sigh*; May 11, 2008 4:03 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Amot:

Not sure - Oregon mailed out ~2 million ballots. Traditionally we get about 85% back in well contested elections. So 750,000 Dem votes may be optimistic in our closed primary.

DeFazio endorsing Obama will not sway the college folks one way or another, but Eugene is a hotbed of liberal politics and his endorsement does not hurt amongst the "older" Dems in that CD.

I just rechecked the Sec of State's return numbers to see if I could determine one thing that will impact whether CD 4 breaks 5-2 or not. Simply put did the UofO and OSU students register in Eugene and Corvalis or did they use their home address (all throughout the state). It matters because if they registered with the address of their parents then their votes count in that CD not in CD 4.

Cannot decipher much from the SOS but so far anyway it appears that the counties the schools are located in are getting a higher number of returns then I would expect.; May 11, 2008 4:20 PM
dsimon said...: amot, it's Yamaka's continuous "far left" assertions that get to me, utterly ignoring the evidence that Obama does better in open primaries where independents, who are supposedly more moderate, can vote.

I'm fairly new to the forum, but if basic facts like that go unexplained, I'm going to not bother responding to those posts too. One can't engage in a discussion with someone who refuses to explain facts that would seem to refute his or her position.; May 11, 2008 4:22 PM
Amot said...: Oregon Dem,
can you provide me a link to follow these numbers? I will try to reconstruct the global picture! I have CD3 5:4 and CD4 4:3 and PLEOs 3:3, but that was based on old polls and 10-12% margin. I really hope 16.66% margin is possible now. Do you think 60%-65% Dems turnout is high?; May 11, 2008 4:30 PM
Yamaka said...: "She can win the popular vote by 80K; that's not going to convince many SD's, IMO."

jp:

I am happy that at least on this point we have agreement: She can win the popular vote by 80K. At least!

(You recall long time ago we were arguing on this matter. We had agreement that she can WIN with the popular vote argument!)

Let us wait till Aug end to see the Final Truth!
:-)
_______________________________--

Rodent: Thanks for catching my typos. You are good only there!
__________________________________

amot:

I feel like vomiting on your lazy face!! lol

If you think the sloganeering of McSame, McBush etc is going to do the Job in the Fall, you are simply a freakish moron!

___________________________________

Others who believe that BHO is NOT a FAR LEFT Bleeding Liberal:

I am sorry we are in a different wavelength, we can not meet.

This classification that Clintons are the centrists and BHO is Left of them is a well known matter in the knowledgeable circles in America and the World.

________________________________

On race etc:

BHO used race very cleverly from Day One. Where were you ALL?

He along with Jim Clyburn (Rodent, check my spelling please) have been racists from DAY One. Where were you?

I need not defend myself on this.

Hamas, Rezko, Khalidi and Wright will always dog your BHO in the weeks to come. Enjoy.

:-)
________________________________; May 11, 2008 4:48 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Amot:

Sorry do not know how to post a hotlink but here is the site address for the elections division:

http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/

On that page just look for the link to ballot return statistics - daily and click on that.

The breakdown there is by county which is nice (but you have to know which counties are in which CD): U of O is in Lane County - so that fact that Lane County has high number in comparison to say Clackamas County (CD 5: Hooley who is a Clinton backer (and a lame duck as she is retiring) with a much larger population) may / may not mean anything.

75% of the Dems showing up is possible. There is both the Presidential primary as well as an interesting primary for who will take on Gordon Smith (R) this fall. We also have NO ballot initiatives out there that will stir up one side or another (liberal vs moderate vs conservative) so that is pretty much a non-factor.

Anything else?; May 11, 2008 4:48 PM
Amot said...: dsimon,
I can't say if Obama is left or Clinton is. On different issues Obama is moderate and Clinton left and vice versa. Independents and unaffliated voters chose Obama based on change, hope and logic. Some left issues are much better than the moderate ones. I think Obama's position on war is one of those. Clinton obliterating Iran doesn't sound good to the independents. Nor does McCain with his 100 years of war. On health care Obama's moderate position will be better accepted than the McCain's. On taxes people are divided but the majority wants no tax cuts. I say his campaign would face hard times because ruch people shouldn't like his plans but his donation skills cover that problem, and what is amazing - high-income people actually like him.

A good VP can make his victory 330-340 EV or even more.

His appeal and charisma are unique and McCain is not competitive at all when it comes to meet voters face to face.; May 11, 2008 4:49 PM
Amot said...: Oregon Dem,
you gave me all the info I could possibly ask for. I am not going to make a Google sheet on WV next week since it is pretty obvious what the results in CDs and statewide will be. I still think about making KY sheet and I probably will. But I will definetely make OR sheet and run it online in a day or two with projection results :)
Thank you! Looking forward to work together with you on the primary results May 20th :); May 11, 2008 5:01 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: For those of ya'll that have not noticed yet-
The graph on the left side of the page was changed yesterday from 'Clinton Superdelegate Endorsement Lead' TO Obama 'Superdelegate Endorsement Lead' :)

Obama / Sebelius '08; May 11, 2008 5:09 PM
Richard said...: Oregon Dem and Amot: I am very interested in the district-by-district analysis of Oregon you two are working on, although at this point I'm afraid I'm beginning to get impatient with the whole race. It's time to move on.; May 11, 2008 5:10 PM
dsimon said...: Yamaka: Others who believe that BHO is NOT a FAR LEFT Bleeding Liberal:
...

This classification that Clintons are the centrists and BHO is Left of them is a well known matter in the knowledgeable circles in America and the World.

If it's so well known, I'd think more examples abound than drivers licenses and lifting the Social Security tax cap (which would only make the tax flat instead of regressive). It seems to me that it's "well known" only among conservatives who want to paint Democrats as far-left when there's no real evidence to back it up. So I'll await more evidence.

And I'll note no response to any of my other points. Shall I consider them conceded?; May 11, 2008 5:27 PM
dsimon said...: amot: I can't say if Obama is left or Clinton is.

The answer is: they're both pretty moderate Democrats. There's no call for "socialized" medicine (which exists only in Britain so far), there's no call for big tax increases (only to roll back the cuts for the wealthy), there's nothing truly radical about either of them. The differences between them on issues are fairly marginal (though the difference in tone and vision can be substantial).

high-income people actually like him.

Perhaps it's because those people realize that we can't get things done in a responsible way without paying for them. There's been a real absence of leadership on this issue on both sides of the aisle.

A good VP can make his victory 330-340 EV or even more.

A fairly recent New York Times article cited polls that said that the VP choice affected only 1% of voters' decisions. We live in different times, so perhaps things will vary this time; but generally I think people still vote on the top of the ticket.; May 11, 2008 5:37 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 11, 2008 5:47 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah only Obama supporters would think trash like that on SNL is good or funny.How sad that you don't have anymore respect then that for someone.

Amot
The main thing in Texas is the PRIMARY and Hillary won. When did Hillary say that she would have Iran obliterated? She said that she would take very strong measures if they attacked Iseral. But I don't recall her saying what you said or like some people on here say BOMB BOMB that is crazy.

Independent voter {Dave] how are you today did you get your work done? Once again I enjoyed our talk.Jean; May 11, 2008 5:49 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Aunt Jean -

When SNL was promoting Hillary and in the tank for her - all the Hillary supporters thought SNL was great - even Hillary thought SNL was so great that she 'used' them to promote herself some more. Now that the tide has turned all of a sudden SNL is 'trash'?

< laughing >; May 11, 2008 5:50 PM

«Oldest ‹Older 601 – 800 of 1207 Newer› Newest»

Welcome to Democratic Convention Watch

Blog Archive

Democratic Convention 2008

Democratic National Convention History

Denver & Colorado Democrats

DCW in the News

Friends of DCW

2008 Republican National Convention

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

1207 comments:

Tags