Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

What is McCain's latest "senior moment", what does Obama need to do to win in November or whatever else is on your mind.

And please be excellent to one another. We do not accept name calling or any attacks on our commenters. Any objectionable comments will be deleted. Try to be civil.

Thanks!

New Open Thread here
This one is now closed for comments.

4188 comments:

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Beryl said...: Test your knowledge:
McCain
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-mccain-quiz,0,3976020.triviaquiz

Obama
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/politics/chi-obama-quiz,0,1295895.triviaquiz

I did better on the McCain quiz than I did on Obama's because when I wasn't sure of an answer, I answered negatively Obama's questions and positively on McCain's. After reading all of the answers, I'm even more pleased with my decision to support Barack Obama!

This is from the Chicago Tribune so consider the source.; June 23, 2008 1:14 PM
jpsedona said...: Ed,

That link provides some good reading on sequestration techniques & benefits. Thanx.; June 23, 2008 1:24 PM
Richard said...: *sigh* Sample size is important in polling, but not nearly as important as most people think, especially beyond a certain minimal threshold. The margin of error on a poll is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size, provided that sample is random and representative. A poll with a sample of 16 people would have a margin of error of +/- 25%. Increasing the size to 100 people decreases the margin of error to +/- 10%. As you increase the sample size, however, the payoff in accuracy goes down. Quadrupling the sample size to 400 only halves the margin of error to +/- 5%; quadrupling again to 1600gives a margin of +/- 2.5%. Beyond that size there is very little marginal return on an increased sample size. In fact, increasing your sample size to 400,000 would only gain you an accuracy of approximately 2%, to 0.4%.

What is far more important to accuracy of a poll is that its sample be random and representative. This is why, for instance, pollsters adjust for such things as party ID: if the American electorate is split roughly evenly Democratic-Republican (as it is), but twice as many Republicans are in your sample, then your poll will be very inaccurate. That is where the AOL poll fails (and it fails by a factor which dwarfs the tiny gains in margin of error which its huge sample lend it).

First of all, AOL users are on average much older, more conservative, whiter, and less educated than the entire population of voters. Second of all, the sample is not random: it is of only people who choose to respond, not of people contacted randomly. It also includes people who may be very unlikely to vote, who would be filtered out of scientific polls. Combine these factors and many other idiosyncrasies of the AOL sample and you have a poll which is completely unscientific and therefore completely worthless as an indicator of real opinion or a predictor of outcome.

In fact, the AOL straw poll, because it allows repeat voting, isn't even an accurate reflection of the opinions of AOL users who decide to respond the poll!

I wish idiots who have no concept of statistics wouldn't make posts containing such blather.; June 23, 2008 3:50 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Beryl-

Thank you post posting the quizes.
I also did better on the McCain quiz 75% to Obama 70%. I think they put in easier questions for McCain than for Obama.; June 23, 2008 4:06 PM
tmess2 said...: stats 101 -- a larger n is more valid than a smaller n only if both n's are randomly selected.

By definition, straw polls in which people "opt-in" are not randomly selected. More importantly, there is no mechanism on computer polls to verify that participants are eligible voters or that they haven't cast multiple votes. For example, even excluding the fact that I use dial-up and thus have no assigned IP address, I could cast one vote from home, one from the office, one from the library near the office, and one from the library near my home.

Finally, statistically valid polls have controls to adjust for imperfections in the composition of those polled and the population as a whole. In other words, making sure that not all the poll participants in California are Republicans from San Diego or 50-year old white males from rural Nebraska.; June 23, 2008 4:51 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Richard,

Thank you for the information on polls and sample size.

Yesterday, I was reading (at Pollster.com) that a SurveyUSA poll was taken in Iowa from 6/13 to 6/16. There were a couple of questions raised about the validity of that poll.

Since the poll was taken when the flooding was beginning in Iowa, and the flooding was mostly in the central and eastern parts of Iowa (the areas of Iowa that have more Democrats), who was available to talk on the phone, rather than try to fortify the levees?

Another question about the validity of the poll was the cross-tab stating that of the African-Americans polled, 55% were for McSame, 45% were for Senator Obama.

Those numbers REALLY stand out as unbelievable! Extrapolating some, it was estimated that the AA sample size was somewhere between 8 and 12 persons polled.

Thus the SUSA poll illustrates how timing can affect a poll, along with sample size extrapolated incorrectly.

The entire discussion is at:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/a_flaw_in_the_iowa_poll.php

Mike; June 23, 2008 4:53 PM
Beryl said...: Richard posted:

"First of all, AOL users are on average much older, more conservative, whiter, and less educated than the entire population of voters. Second of all, the sample is not random: it is of only people who choose to respond, not of people contacted randomly. It also includes people who may be very unlikely to vote, who would be filtered out of scientific polls. Combine these factors and many other idiosyncrasies of the AOL sample and you have a poll which is completely unscientific and therefore completely worthless as an indicator of real opinion or a predictor of outcome."

I agree with your assessment on age, economic and education levels of AOL members. Back in the 80s, AOL was overrun by kids and it felt like a middle school hallway. Compuserve was overrun by geeks (like me) posting new software code and patches. There was also Prodigy (no comment). These days, only older people who are not very internet savvy are still on AOL. It provides minimum value as a content provider for the cost. As a result, they've lost educated and younger subscribers.

AOL polls not worthy of notice.; June 23, 2008 4:58 PM
Meg said...: Beryl:

Why no comment on Prodigy? We belonged to Prodigy back in the early 90's. It was way cool. We had a picnic for local users and T-SHIRTS!! :); June 23, 2008 5:01 PM
apissedant said...: Richard,
Very good post. I responded with a similar, yet much less agreeable evaluation of AOL users several weeks ago. Yours uses more facts and less insults, much better. ;)

ed,
My main point is that CO2 is A problem, not THE problem. In the scientific community, there are tons of journal entries about minimizing sulfur contents in fuels. There are tons of entries on the negative effects of MTBE. I am sure, though I have not looked, that there are plenty of journal entries about the problems with radioactivity in coal burning, and environmental problems caused by mining for coal and drilling for oil.
Even if we find a solution for one item, it is no good without solutions for all the others. This, added to the fact that everything posted still talks about it being in the experimental stage, and you really have nothing as of now.
Conservation is a guaranteed helping hand, where as new technologies not yet discovered are still just wishful thinking. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. We can start conserving now, and work on pollution reduction and soil replenishment in the meantime. Assaulting both fronts gives us a much higher likelihood of success.

Despite millions of dollars spent here in Virginia to replenish the soil and the water, it has been found that the soil and the water are still becoming more polluted every year. Many environmentalists have been baffled at the lack of progress, and they're the pessimists. If even the pessimists expected more, than relying on the optimists seems like a poor idea.; June 23, 2008 5:08 PM
apissedant said...: beryl,
My parents finally switched off AOL and went to DSL last month. My dad doesn't even know how to attach a file to an email or scan a picture to the computer. I told him over the phone, and he kept yelling that I was going to make him break the computer.

If AOL has finally lost people with that little technological knowledge, who does that leave?; June 23, 2008 5:11 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Maybe since McCain doesn't know how to use a computer very well and all of the AOL straw polls are RED, it is John McCain on AOL voting for himself!

OBAMA '08; June 23, 2008 5:16 PM
Beryl said...: LOL w/Emma on Prodigy.

I was a member largely because as an employee of one of the founding companies (not Sears or CBS), it was expected.

Yeah, it was "way cool". LOL! It had "better" members than AOL back then but I pulled out when they started rationing emails and chats. Also, I never liked the slow graphical interface. As a geek, I preferred Compuserve but would have tolerated AOL if they didn't have such juvenile subscribers.

Prodigy was its own worse enemy. It didn't have a grip on what the demand and what the customers were willing to pay.; June 23, 2008 5:19 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "I wish idiots who have no concept of statistics wouldn't make posts containing such blather."

richard:

Most part you made lots of sense, but at the very end you showed you ARE just a partisan moron, who cannot take an alternate view point.
Remember, you wanted to be civil in discussions, what happened to it?

Are you not like BHO who flip-flops on everything he says!

Here is my view of AOL Straw Poll:

1. Polls are all over the lot.

2. I use poll of polls to get a very realistic picture of what is happening, as we speak. I include AOL Straw also in the mix.

3. Reliance on just AP/Gallop/Rasmussens/Newsweek alone is just like blind following another blind.

4. I agree - a totally random sampling with as large an n as possible is the right thing to do. There is no smart n or dull n. N is n, the larger the better as long as it is very random, period.

5. IMO, AOL is just voluntary. It has nearly 20 million subscribers coast to coast.

6. Your view that AOL users are dumb and uneducated is just a partisan blather that comforts your failing heart. It has all sorts of people: old, young, women, men, educated, less educated, rich and poor and so on.

7. I agree some mischief may go on to manipulate the numbers, which is true in ANY poll: the Company sponsored polls ARE the worst, IMO.

8. Those who can't handle the Opposition or an alternate point of view, just stay in a Bubble with your eyes and ears closed. That's your world. Not the real chaotic world out there.

Peace be with you.

-------------------------------

beryl:

You ARE confusing me for Yamaka, who IS a Hillary Democrat; he will vote for Obama. He stopped giving you all trouble since June 4th, 2008! He is your guy!!

I am a disillusioned former Democrat. After 2006, what did Pelosi and Reid accomplish? Nothing. I voted for them. Now, I hate the Democratic Party, and I am working accordingly.

Because, the Democrats just talk, they don't deliver on their promises.

They talk the talk but can't walk the talk!

God Bless You.

Stay tuned.; June 23, 2008 6:21 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "it is John McCain on AOL voting for himself!"

Good humor.

However, today's Wall Steet J reported that both McCain and BHO have nearly same amount of campaign money on hand to go into the Summer Brawl!

How come "Senior" raised so much money and "Junior" slowed down?

Any insight?!!!!!

Stay tuned.; June 23, 2008 6:28 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: It is simple.
McCain is getting money from BIG donations. Bush was out there fundraising for McCain pulling in 'favors'.

June will look much better for Obama as far as money goes. And July will be even better. The first week or so of June some Obama supporters were holding off on donating until they were assured that none of the money would go to pay off Hillary's 30 million debt.

McCain's money will drop off just like his popularity has.

OBAMA '08; June 23, 2008 6:55 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: Who may be the one person who can really damage McCain?

Not Hillary... because everyone knows she will work for BHO.. not a big deal!

It's Bill. I really wish that he does NOT campaign for the Junior.

Bill knows McCain inside out - much better than he knows BHO!

Bill is the ONLY Democrat with the proven Track Record on Economy.

This Fall, it will be only "Economy, Stupid" - not War, not Environment etc.

Oil price and Jobs will be the only focus, as it should be.

On Economy, if Bill says, "BHO has the Solution", then "the Senior" will be in trouble, seriously.

Wait and see.

____________________________--

Yamaka:

Thanks for the insight into the State of the Market. Your portfolio is just mind boggling!

You know how to make money, AND how to grow the money with minimal risk! Managing the Risk is the name of the game, which you know it so well. Man, I am very jealous of you!lol.

Keep writing, Yam.

------------------------------

Yes, BHO will raise 3 times more Money than McCain, and will spend it so very lavishly, as he did against HRC.

But remember Message is far superior than Money to clinch the Presidency! On the Nomination, he got very lucky - the SDs pushed him over the Hurdle!

(Brown came dead last in the Triple Crown! Because the shoe was off!! Those who compared Brown to BHO during April/May will have a heart trauma knowing it came very last!!!! Whatever goes around will come around).lol

Stay tuned.; June 23, 2008 7:19 PM
apissedant said...: What does cash on hand have to do with total raised anyways? McCain sealed up the nomination four months ago, and Obama has been spending like crazy in a primary that wasn't over. How can you compare cash on hand? How about looking at totals raised? I would also remind everyone that McCain has already tried to back out of public financing once this election cycle, so why Obama is getting bad press is beyond me. McCain's attempt pull-out got way less attention, and almost none of it negative.; June 23, 2008 7:43 PM
JayW said...: Hmmm...

Stop O still has not taken me up on my offer to cover any bet for the general election.

Apparently he knows Obama will win.

What a sally.; June 23, 2008 7:48 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Some Idiot still has not attempted to answer two of the three questions I presented last night.

To state them again:

What is the current pH of the oceans? (Want to try to answer this question again?)

Do you know what will happen to life in the oceans if the pH is lowered by even .1? (Want to try to answer this question?)

Do you know how and why the pH of the ocean waters are almost universally equal throughout the world? (Want to try to answer this question?)

Mike; June 23, 2008 7:58 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "McCain is getting money from BIG donations."

As per WSJ a few days ago, BHO gets nearly 55% of his contribution as "bundles" from big Corporations!

He even mentioned it in one of the early Debates. He said, "Middle managers bundle up the Contributions and send me".

Whether the TOP CEO and President do it or the "middle managers" do it, HE also gets money from Big Business, period.

That's not what the Propaganda Machine says! They just create a Mirage and a Mystic Myth that all money comes from "Small Donors".

That's not the total story.

Stay tuned.; June 23, 2008 7:59 PM
apissedant said...: stop,
How are you math skills? What is 45% of about 300 million?
How much has John McCain raised total?
Meaning Barack Obama has raised more money from small donors than John McCain has raised from small and big donors COMBINED.; June 23, 2008 8:13 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: AP,

SON/the Yammerer has no math skills. We've seen it demonstrated over and over.

SON/the Yammerer also has no concept of how polls should be conducted. We've seen that demonstrated over and over again also.

SON/the Yammerer has no concept of debate either. How many times have we been barraged by unfounded, uncited "facts", then when confronted with the falsity of the "facts", they are either shoved back into a post as if nothing was ever stated to refute them, or never discussing those "facts" again, without even a "I might have been mistaken" comment?

In addition, SON/the Yammerer has no concept of logic and common sense. What was the last logical comment made by SON/the Yammerer? I don't remember ANY!

Mike; June 23, 2008 8:40 PM
Richard said...: "There is no smart n or dull n. N is n, the larger the better as long as it is very random, period."

No, Stop: there is only a random n and a non-random n. And a non-random n results in a poll which means nothing. Not a lot; not some; not a little; not even a miniscule amount. Absolutely nothing. That you claim to be a scientist and don't understand this simple fact is scary.

Furthermore, you have willfully misinterpreted my statements about AOL's demographics as being somehow elitist or derogatory. Nothing could be farther from the truth. I am merely stating the fact that AOL's demographics do not coincide with the demographics of the electorate at large and that, therefore, in addition to the problem of non-randomness of the sample, there is a problem of non-representativeness in their sample. Please do not twist my words.

Finally, I fail to see how my objection to people who clearly understand nothing of statistics posting statistical misinformation is a partisan one. It not differing opinions I object to, but misinformation.

Mike in Maryland: we had a similar discussion of the SUSA poll on fivethirtyeight.com (an excellent site for election statistics). Personally, I feel it is outrageous to post cross-tabs like that without giving margins of error for each cross-tab. If the sample of African Americans was indeed 8, then the margin of error for that cross-tab is 35%. This means that McCain's support among African Americans in Iowa could be anywhere between 20% and 90%, and Barack Obama's anywhere between 10% and 80%. In short, that poll tells you absolutely nothing about African American opinion in Iowa that everyone doesn't already know.; June 23, 2008 8:49 PM
Somerled said...: AOL='Trainning Wheels For The Internet' I don't really trust a poll of people who need a police escort to the information highway...; June 23, 2008 9:11 PM
jean said...: Richard,
Thanks for the fivethirtyeight.com site. Very nice.
jean; June 23, 2008 9:42 PM
jean said...: Richard,
Good stats.
Do you like baseball?
jean; June 23, 2008 9:47 PM
suzihussein22 said...: What's really interesting in this article is that an advisor mentions it would be a big advantage for McCain if there were to be a terrorist attack on US soil before November-

http://tinyurl.com/3psg5v; June 23, 2008 9:48 PM
suzihussein22 said...: I just wanted to add it's nice to hear from you again, Woodland Sprite. :); June 23, 2008 9:49 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: SS,

Keith Olbermann had some harsh words about this comment by Charlie Black on tonight's Countdown. I'm sure the video will be up soon on YouTube, and later on the MSNBC site will have the video.

Mike; June 23, 2008 9:58 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "Meaning Barack Obama has raised more money from small donors than John McCain has raised from small and big donors COMBINED."

Yes.

The point was in May, BHO unexpectedly raised less money and McCain raised more money than widely anticipated.

Yes, as in the past, in the future BHO would raise tons of money. I am NOT contesting that view at all.

He believes in big Money, not good Message, I know that from the beginning!

I also will say that he would spend about 3 times more money to get less than 251 EVs! It's my pure guess. Case in point - in TX, PA, OH, KY and PR Primaries he spent 3 times more than HRC, but got far less than expected.

------------------------------

richard:

Thanks for your nice argument. It sounded little defensive, though. lol.

But I stand by my statement that n is an n.......etc.

We are NOT in the same page!

-------------------------------

Roach:

Please read ALL my posts last night. If you need answers, you MUST carefully read them over and over again till you understand the point of our contention from the beginning (from 9 pm onwards).

Not even God can help you with your questions!; June 23, 2008 10:17 PM
suzihussein22 said...: m in m-Thanks for the heads up. NBC isn't usually my first place to go on the internet.; June 23, 2008 10:22 PM
suzihussein22 said...: This is what made me look for the source of this advisor-

http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/06/mccain-adviser.html

Somebody actually commented if this would mean O'Donnell was right.; June 23, 2008 10:30 PM
tmess2 said...: on discussion of isps -- prodigy got taken over by yahell; June 23, 2008 10:31 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: SON/Yammerer:

You made a pathetic ATTEMPT at answering ONE question.

However, you still haven't said word one about my other two question:

Do you know what will happen to life in the oceans if the pH is lowered by even .1? Want to try to answer this question?

Do you know how and why the pH of the ocean waters are almost universally equal throughout the world? (Want to try to answer this question?)

Mike; June 23, 2008 10:37 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Here is what I found on msnbc-

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25333875/

You rock, Mrs. O! Circo is my favorite brand at Target!; June 23, 2008 10:46 PM
Richard said...: But I stand by my statement that n is an n.......etc.

Proving once again that you know nothing about statistics and need to stop claiming to. Persisting in spreading misinformation when confronted with facts is, in my book, the same as lying.; June 23, 2008 10:57 PM
suzihussein22 said...: issue alert-energy-

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/06/23/impossible-finding-expert_n_108692.html

It's up there with the gas tax holiday. Way to go!; June 23, 2008 10:58 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: SS:

The video is up at MSNBC.

Go to http://www.msnbc.msn.com and click "MSNBC TV" near the top right of the screen. Scroll down to "Countdown" and look for the segment titled "Return of the politics of fear". If the segment doesn't show, click the '9' in the bar for "Show _ stories".

Mike; June 23, 2008 11:01 PM
Vicki in Seattle said...: richard - I just hope that someone else here is learning something about statistics. I got your point a long time ago (I've been on the statistics merry-go-round a few times). Personally, when they give a result ("x percentage of AA are for Obama" for example), I'd like to see 95% CI to back it up. That's just me.

however, *one* person is seriously not getting your point regarding 'randomness'. and you know? they probably never will.; June 23, 2008 11:14 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Could he be a new prospect for vp? I think he would go over well with environmentalists. ;)-

http://tinyurl.com/6ckdpx; June 23, 2008 11:21 PM
Richard said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; June 23, 2008 11:28 PM
Richard said...: Viki, I know. And I need to start taking my father's advice about having battles of wits with unarmed persons.; June 23, 2008 11:30 PM
Independent Voter said...: ss - LOL!!!!!!!!!; June 23, 2008 11:34 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Aagh! I thought computers were dumb! My age was automatically updated! I should have known giving year of birth was a bad idea! :( Really, I'm never going to be older than 22!; June 23, 2008 11:35 PM
suzihussein22 said...: richard- To wit his own. He who can't, teaches. ;)

i v-I don't think there's too many bad choices Obama can make for vp for Dems this election season. But this guy is just irresistible. I know, I'm being shallow and superficial. :); June 23, 2008 11:40 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: softspoken22 said...
. . . I'm never going to be older than 22!

LOL!!

One of my aunts was born after Jack Benny, so when anyone asked her how old she was, she told them she was 38. She said that she could never be older than Jack!

She eventually celebrated her 38th birthday 46 times.

Mike; June 23, 2008 11:47 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "Persisting in spreading misinformation when confronted with facts is, in my book, the same as lying."

No fact was presented, all opinions. There is an world of difference!

Your book is perhaps just very old! Get a New Edition where things are much clearer! lol

James Dobson is slamming BHO on religion and Christianity; go with your Comrades for his help.

On Economy, National Security and Religion BHO is very naive, confused and inexperienced.

That's what AOL Straw Poll is showing! It has the demographics of nearly all factions of American Electorate. Wake up.

Stay tuned.; June 24, 2008 12:00 AM
suzihussein22 said...: m in m-How sweet! I've got a great-aunt who's getting ready to be 38x2.61! She can still live on her own and walk with a cane and still knows who people are. My family has good genes.; June 24, 2008 12:01 AM
Independent Voter said...: LOL - ss

--

I hear ya Richard. Why do you think I quit arguing with stop/yam a few days ago...they are both fools. I always try to remember the old saying "never argue with a fool because others may not be able to distinguish between the two".

--

As far as VP picks - does anyone know why Joe Manchin III has not been even on the radar by most media outlets? Could he be the "dark horse" we are waiting to hear about?; June 24, 2008 12:06 AM
suzihussein22 said...: i v-Good spotting on Manchin III.; June 24, 2008 12:17 AM
billyjay66 said...: mike in maryland

You are not worried about such minor details like whether crusatatons are able to form shells are you? After all if plankton can reproduce what more can you ask for?; June 24, 2008 12:28 AM
Richard said...: *sigh* Not opinions, Stop, mathematical facts. Just because you don't understand them does not make them any less true than any other mathematical facts. Tell me, as an engineer, do you call the tensile strength of steel "just opinion" if it isn't high enough to meet the needs of your project?

It is a mathematical fact that a statistical sample is only valid if it is random and representative. That is no more opinion than that the ratio of diameter to circumference of a circle is pi. Denying either one makes you equally a fool.; June 24, 2008 12:35 AM
Richard said...: billyjay66 said "After all if plankton can reproduce what more can you ask for?"

Hmm. I'm kinda partial to Lobster, myself.; June 24, 2008 12:37 AM
billyjay66 said...: richard

I think that is what mike was hinting at about the pH of the ocean. If enough CO2 is dissolved there is a certain acid level at which shells will not be able to form. I believe its carbolic acid that will dissolve shells before they can form. Not to worry though-won't happen for many 100's of years!; June 24, 2008 12:47 AM
suzihussein22 said...: You know you're tired when...

http://cdn.ezprezzo.com/crazypics/sleepy1.jpg

richard and billyjay66-Don't forget about the krill-

http://www.imdb.com/media/rm1613338624/tt0266543

Swim away!

Callin' it a night, y'all :o; June 24, 2008 12:50 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: billyjay66 said...
You are not worried about such minor details like whether crusatatons are able to form shells are you? After all if plankton can reproduce what more can you ask for?

Umm, well, yes, now that you bring it up, I am worried about such a 'minor detail'.

And maybe you should be concerned as well. You see, anything with a calcium carbonate shell is adversely affected by the acidification of the oceans. Such animals as clams and oysters to pteropods, and including plankton, have calcium carbonate shells.

So if you are concerned about crabs, clams, oysters and/or anything that feeds on them directly or indirectly, you should be concerned with ocean acidification. And if you think plankton will not be harmed, think again.

Mike; June 24, 2008 12:50 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: billyjay66 said...
Not to worry though-won't happen for many 100's of years!

Several studies have shown the oceans will become 'acidic' enough for it to happen well before the end of the 21st century. In fact, the oceans in some parts of the world might be so acidic right now that plankton are suffering.

Get a copy of the July issue of Discover, and read the article. Then read some of the studies they cite. You might be just a tiny bit surprised by what is reported.

Mike; June 24, 2008 12:56 AM
billyjay66 said...: mike in maryland

You are not taking me seriously are you? I was giving Stop 24 hrs to answer your pH question before I chimed in.; June 24, 2008 1:01 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Regarding Obama / McCain fundraising - from MSNBC:

*** Behind Obama’s $22 Million: To put Obama’s haul into perspective, do note that it came in the last month of a protracted, 17-month campaign against Clinton. And there was probably plenty of donor fatigue, especially since Obama’s campaign and supporters were pretty sure he had locked up the nomination on May 6 after the Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Clinton, for her part, raised $12.6 million. Also, Obama’s haul still exceeded McCain’s amount -- at a time when McCain was hitting nearly a fundraiser per day, when he received $4.3 million from three big joint fundraisers, and with a unified Republican Party behind him. What’s more, Obama couldn’t really begin raising money for the general election in May, given that he didn’t want to look like he was shoving Clinton out of the race. And Obama’s ability to raise money over the internet has largely depended on news events. Besides his victory in North Carolina, May included blowout defeats in West Virginia and Kentucky. To see if Obama is on pace to bring in $300 million in five months, we'll find out quite a bit next month, when the June numbers are released.; June 24, 2008 1:10 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: The pH discussion is way above my head ... but I will say this:

Nothing better mess up the Lobsters, Alaskin King Crabs, and Shrimp!!! -- Three of my favorite meals ;); June 24, 2008 1:16 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey guys how has things been on the thread lately?

Beeen busy as heck but had a ;ot of fun too! Jean; June 24, 2008 1:16 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; June 24, 2008 1:17 AM
billyjay66 said...: mike in maryland

My exposure to the pH problem was from a FSTV program some months back. Can't quote who did the study but he showed a sort of "Keeling curve" of pH.... rising from year to year. He stated that the ocean is absorbing all but 45% of the CO2 we dump into the atmosphere.....otherwise CO2 rise would be much worse. But the oceans can take only so much without drastic change. I will check into the discover article.; June 24, 2008 1:30 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: When DCW stopped keep track of superdelegates it was a let down. But now I am addicted to watching the General Election Tracker and it sure is fun watching some of those Red solid McCain states turning Pink and some even turning to Toss-ups!

There are even a few electoral maps out there that have TEXAS going from Red to Pink (I'm waiting for the Blue) - I am very happy to see that McCain is losing ground in Texas!

Obama '08; June 24, 2008 1:34 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: My favorite map to watch is:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Others that are good to watch:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.electionprojection.com/president08.shtml

http://www.openleft.com/tag.do?tag=Presidential%20Forecast

Don't worry about losing the links.
If you go to the DCW General Election Tracker link that is at the top left of this page you can click on the headings and it takes you to the individual websites ;)

OBAMA/Sebelius '08; June 24, 2008 1:43 AM
ed iglehart said...: Leah, and others,

"Nothing better mess up the Lobsters, Alaskin King Crabs, and Shrimp!!! -- Three of my favorite meals "

All three, like virtually every other "commercial" fishery, endangered by overfishing thanks to the growing trend towards vegetarianism (with fish).

;-(

I love all three myself.; June 24, 2008 8:37 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "It is a mathematical fact that a statistical sample is only valid if it is random and representative. That is no more opinion than that the ratio of diameter to circumference of a circle is pi. Denying either one makes you equally a fool."

richard:

You ARE flip-flopping on your words, again, like BHO!

Your are as IMMATURE as Indy, who is just a struggling student. He may not even get his BA on time!!

Please read all my earlier posts carefully on this issue. I contend that the AOL Straw Poll has

1. Sufficient randomness and representation. I never said randomness is NOT required for statistical analysis.

2. AOL poll CAN be used as one of the polls when taking the Poll of Polls, which I do. Do you know why most people take the Poll of Polls? Because polls are all over the lot.

3. The fact the so-called scientifically taken Company polls differs so widely is a testament to my assertion that they ARE as flawed as AOL Straw Poll is.

4. Many of the so-called "scientific polls" have failed miserably before in predicting what's going to happen at the time of Election/Primary day (as in CA and NH in early 2008).

5. If your bruised bloated ego is bubbling through your very thin skin, then just don't take AOL Straw Poll for YOUR consideration.

6. For heaven sake, don't tell OTHERS whether to use it or not. Millions prefer to do.

WE discuss politics and mostly dish out opinions and conjectures in predicting what would happen in the GE:

BHO = Inexperienced = Risky = Not Electable.

McCain = Good for National Security, Good for Economy.

Thus,

McCain gets 51% public approval rating over inexperienced BHO, IMO.

Stay tuned.; June 24, 2008 10:06 AM
ed iglehart said...: "Stay tuned"

You're tuned out.; June 24, 2008 10:13 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "I am very happy to see that McCain is losing ground in Texas!"

After Ann Richards, TX became very RED.

It would be a miracle if it turns BLUE anytime soon!!

No, it will not happen in 2008. Don't get disappointed.

--------------------------------

billy:

I agree with you.

There is CO2/bicarbonate buffering mechanism in Nature to keep the pH nearly constant.

In biological system, this buffering is facilitated by an enzyme called carbonic anhydrase.

Sea water pH ranges between 7.5 - 8.4; phyto and zooplanktons and fishes ARE just fine at this pH range, IMO.

Don't waste your time on MinM. He has some weird obsession to make a very narrow point!
------------------------

Extreme Environmentalists are Eco-Terrorists who ARE as dangerous as Islamic Fundamentalists.

We NEED to fight BOTH! Yes, We WILL.

Stay tuned.; June 24, 2008 10:19 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "You're tuned out."

This joke was dished out already by someone!; June 24, 2008 10:21 AM
Independent Voter said...: Aunt Jean - Hey guys how has things been on the thread lately?

Your buddies stop/yam are still as delusional as ever. They are still proving their inadequacies in mathematical facts. Stop is even trying to say that I'm a "struggling" student (couldn't be further from the truth). I'm doing quite well. He's even gone as far as to say I may not graduate "on time" even though I'm actually graduating early and with honors. But then again he wouldn't understand anything about that, beings how he doesn't even understand basic statistics yet alone mathematics.

Anyway enough of stop/yam, how was your date on Saturday? Did your rash clear up by then? Were you able to get the naughty on? LOL; June 24, 2008 10:46 AM
apissedant said...: Mike,
Thanks for the link to Keith. I didn't realize I could watch it if I missed it at 8 and 10.

Richard and vicki,
Trust me all but one are completely understanding what you're saying about statistics and n. If I remember correctly, I believe there was a problem with 1932 presidential polling because of a lack of random. My bad, it was 1936. Here it is:
http://historymatters.gmu.edu/d/5168/
10,000,000 respondents, and they were still completely wrong.

This is my wife's last day in the country, and I won't see her again until December, so I'll talk to everyone tomorrow! Enjoy!; June 24, 2008 1:30 PM
Richard said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; June 24, 2008 1:52 PM
Richard said...: Apissedant - where's your wife going? I hope it was of her own choosing?

Your analogy to 1936 is very apt. If ever a poll showed the necessity of randomness and the complete invalidity of a poll with voluntary response it was that one.

Okay, back to my policy of ignoring idiots.; June 24, 2008 1:58 PM
Karen Anne said...: I used to be an aol user (what can I say, not that cox is much better) and their polls were always skewed considerably to the right.; June 24, 2008 4:35 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "I used to be an aol user (what can I say, not that cox is much better) and their polls were always skewed considerably to the right."

Yes. It's quite possible.

On the other hand, before PA, AOL Straw Poll was tilting towards BHO during the Primary 2008.

After PA, it is either tilted towards Hillary or McCain, now. Why? I have a theory, but you may ALL know why it is!

I sense that AOL users ARE mostly Right of the Far Left Liberals. That's it.

They need NOT be FAR Right. They may be mostly Centrists, as most of the American Electorate is, IMO.

Can some one explain why last week Newsweek had a 15% blowout for BHO while most other "scientific" polls showed very very close race?

Stay tuned.; June 24, 2008 5:11 PM
Richard said...: In a poll with a 95% confidence interval, roughly one in twenty results will be completely erroneous and outside of the margin of error. Such a result is called an outlier. Since most other scientific polls show an Obama lead of approximately 4-6%, it is clear that the Newsweek poll is the outlier and the other polls should be given much more credence.

This is, incidentally, not an indication of the invalidity of the mathematics...it is a fact predicted by the mathematics itself. Such a result only confirms the mathematics behind scientific sampling.; June 24, 2008 5:32 PM
Richard said...: I would add that with other polls today showing 9- and 12-pt leads for Obama it is possible that the Newsweek poll is merely at the upper end of the margin.; June 24, 2008 5:45 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "This is, incidentally, not an indication of the invalidity of the mathematics...it is a fact predicted by the mathematics itself. Such a result only confirms the mathematics behind scientific sampling."

This has never been in dispute.

The utility of the Central Theorem has NEVER ever been questioned.

What's in question is as Newsweek did it, why the AOL Straw Poll is on the other side of the Curve.
As I said before it reflects that possibly most of the AOL users ARE centrists, reflecting the bulk of the American Electorate.

Polls are all over the lot. It depends on who is looking at the polls: Some would cherry pick, and others would include ALL in determining the poll of polls, as I do. That's it!

Remember, the FAR LEFT Liberal Ideologues would be extremely ecstatic had AOL poll also been on the same side of the Newsweek poll! All selfish motive!!

Never the mathematics! But on how we USE and READ mathematics. It depends on our politics!!; June 24, 2008 5:53 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: Okay folks:

Question:

What will be the action of Federal Reserve tomorrow (announced early afternoon)?

a) Increase in FF rate

b) Decrease in FF rate

c) No change

d) No change; but the Statement would be on the danger of inflation going forward.

I bet on (d).

What say you all, if you care?; June 24, 2008 6:05 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: McCain LOSING ground in Florida...

From Miami Herald:

In a sign that Democrat Barack Obama will be competitive in the nation's largest swing state, he is beating Republican John McCain comfortably in South Florida and has a slight edge among Hispanics, according to a new Miami Herald poll.

Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties in the survey of 807 people conducted by Zogby International. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

''Obama's 16-point lead in South Florida could springboard him to make it a competitive race statewide,'' said pollster John Zogby. ``I really think Florida is in play.''; June 24, 2008 6:52 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Is this an incentive to move to the Netherlands?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,559030,00.html

Mellow, dude. Some people may be able to have their cake and munchies, too. ;)

peevedant-Couldn't resist. Hope the parting won't be too bad or seem too long.; June 24, 2008 6:53 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Obama head by 15 points in ANOTHER poll...

From Bloomberg.com

Illinois Senator Obama, winning support from once skeptical women and Democrats, beats McCain 48 percent to 33 percent in a four-way race, a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows. Independent candidates Bob Barr and Ralph Nader get 7 percent combined, with the remainder undecided.; June 24, 2008 7:02 PM
JayW said...: Stop O,

This is your daily offer to wager with me on the general election.

I'll take Obama and you can have the field, McCain, Nader and Barr.

I will cover any bet amount.

Obviously you are a fraud and don't believe what you are saying on this site... by not taking me up on my wagering offer it proves that.

I would like to hear a response from you though regarding your logic on not wagering... that should be entertaining and fun for everyone to pick apart.; June 24, 2008 7:19 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "Obama head by 15 points in ANOTHER poll.."

My question is what would be the polls in Oct 2008?

What will be the Oct Surprise in 2008?

According a poll in TX, 58% say that Obama DOES NOT have NATIONAL EXPERIENCE to be the POTUS!

Wait and See.

Interesting Time!; June 24, 2008 7:31 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Leah Texas4Obama said...
. . . Obama is ahead 46-30 percent over McCain in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties

This IS good news! A quick check of population figures at the census website shows that in 2006, the three counties above comprised just over 30% of the state's population.

Add in that the three counties have a higher than average age, and that older voters traditionally vote in a somewhat higher percentage than younger voters (although that may not be the case this year), increases the importance of this poll finding. If traditional patterns hold, this could be equivalent to 32-33% of the state's voting population is in the three named counties.

Mike; June 24, 2008 7:42 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: What would make Obama a resounding success in the GE?

He must eat crow and say the following very sincerely:

1. "The Era of Big Government is over"

2. "I will shrink the size of the Govt to the level of Bill Clinton's"

3. "I will follow Clintonomics: Balance the Budget in 3-4 years"

4. "I will be a workoholic like Bill Clinton and read ALL Presidential Daily Briefings, and protect the country at all costs, unlike Dubya Bush"

5. "In short, I will govern from the Center for ALL Americans"

Will/Can Obama say this?

If not, forget it. All polls are irrelevant, IMO.; June 24, 2008 7:45 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg national poll released today:

Two way race:
Obama 49, McCain 37

Four way race:
Obama 48, McCain 33, Nader 4, Barr 3

LA Times article:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story

Results (in PDF):
http://www.calendarlive.com/media/acrobat/2008-06/40351172.pdf

Bloomburg article:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.story

Mike; June 24, 2008 7:48 PM
Richard said...: "What's in question is as Newsweek did it, why the AOL Straw Poll is on the other side of the Curve."

Apples and oranges. The fact that there can be an outlier among scientific polls does not make an unscientific nothing any more valid.

With the new numbers coming out, though, I am beginning to think the Newsweek poll may not be as much of an outlier as I thought.; June 24, 2008 8:22 PM
Keryl said...: Regarding the Dobson thing, per Time Magazine a pastor in Texas who supported Bush is calling Dobson out on his bull. See this sight built by evangelicals:
http://www.jamesdobsondoesntspeakforme.com/

Just completely wipes the floor with Dobson. Elegantly, simply, and factually. Trouble for Republicans if the Evangelical vote splits.; June 24, 2008 9:42 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "The fact that there can be an outlier among scientific polls does not make an unscientific nothing any more valid."

This is a very tortured sentence, and it supports my contention!lol

"does NOT...nothing.....valid."

Two negatives spliced together to make my point valid! Thanks.

My contention all along has been that the the so-called "scientific polls" are indeed unscientific because they ARE all over the lot during the same time period. They are ALL man-made, and are massaged to satisfy the Sponsors.

____________________________

Can anyone remember what was the polling results for Kerry during June/July 2004?

I bet he WAS leading according to the so-called "Scientific Polls"!

Stay tuned.; June 24, 2008 10:00 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "The fact that there can be an outlier among scientific polls does not make an unscientific nothing any more valid."

This is a very tortured sentence, and it supports my contention!lol

"does NOT...nothing.....valid."

Two negatives spliced together to make my point valid! Thanks.

My contention all along has been that the the so-called "scientific polls" are indeed unscientific because they ARE all over the lot during the same time period. They are ALL man-made, and are massaged to satisfy the Sponsors.

____________________________

Can anyone tell me what was the polling results for Kerry during June/July 2004?

I bet he WAS leading according to the so-called "Scientific Polls"!

Stay tuned.; June 24, 2008 10:01 PM
Independent Voter said...: stopobama = mccain = dolt = wimp on terrorism; June 24, 2008 10:04 PM
Beryl said...: Keryl,
Thanks for that post. I was really disconcerted after reading Dobson's comments today.; June 24, 2008 10:17 PM
Kujo said...: stopobama = mccain = dolt = wimp on terrorism; June 24, 2008 10:21 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: On Dobson and the Evangelicals:

Come Oct/Nov the Evangelicals are going to be fired up and become very active because of the Gay Marriage Issues on the ballot of CA and other States. Media will have a field day on this matter.

As a spill over, they will ALL shun the FAR LEFT Liberal Candidate and go en mass to McCain.

Indirectly, McCain will be the beneficiary and Obama a big loser because of them, at least.

_________________________

This time in 2004, AOL Straw Poll showed a lot of Blue States and predicted that Kerry would win hands down, I remember now!

But he was, alas, "swift-boated".

Similar things could happen in 2008 also.

Obama = Inexperienced = Risky --> Not Electable.

McCain --> Experienced --> Good!

Stay tuned.; June 24, 2008 10:28 PM
Kujo said...: I love the James Dobson speach. Like S.O.N. it just shows the ignorance is out there.

I look at these people as being cripled in the brain. They need a walker (the rest of us) just to help them get through their lives.

As for Dobson, there is a great reply from other religious leaders:

www.jamesdobsondoesntspeakforme.com

stopobamanow = ignorance = mccain = we need help educating our children so we wont have ignorant voters in the future; June 24, 2008 10:36 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Did Dobson say that he 'thinks'?

What a pile of stinking male bovine droppings. Dobson doesn't think, he parrots whatever his handlers tell him to parrot. And the only thing his handlers tell him to parrot is intended to help the Repig party.

Keep it up, Dobson. What you are doing is driving an additional 15% more evangelicals away from the Repigs, and turning 15% into sofa-sitters on Election Day.

Mike; June 24, 2008 10:39 PM
Meg said...: McCain sees the world as a very scary place. I guess being a POW will do that to you. Policies for how he interacts with the world are made from a position of fear. Not good. Not strong. The man doesn't know how to listen. How can he be interested in what's happening in the lives of ordinary Americans? He's too busy figuring out how to protect us from the world.; June 24, 2008 10:43 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Bill O'Reilly is angry with Newsweek now.

Last week, Newsweek reviewed O'Lielly's new book, "A Bold Fresh Piece of Humanity" (not too favorably). O'Lielly then denounced Newsweek's editor, Jon Meacham, by stating "Newsweek has really gone off the rails with its far-left posture. For destroying a once fine magazine, Meacham [editor of Newsweek] is a pinhead."

Newsweek came back this week with alternate titles for O'lielly's book. I think I like alternate title #1 the best.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142656

Mike; June 24, 2008 11:00 PM
justin said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; June 24, 2008 11:04 PM
justin said...: Emma said: "McCain sees the world as a very scary place..."

Well put! His father was a Navy Admiral, as was his grandfather. I think all he sees is a military answer.

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.

(nned to check my work sometimes).; June 24, 2008 11:07 PM
Richard said...: SON, your abuse of my quotations proves that you are not only a fool but also a liar. Two can play your litte game:

At 10:28 p.m. StopObamaNow said "Dobson and the Evangelicals... are... Gay. CA and other States... will... ALL shun... McCain. McCain will be... a big loser."; June 24, 2008 11:11 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Richard - Wow, that was pretty good!; June 24, 2008 11:25 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Some idiot rambled...
Can anyone remember what was the polling results for Kerry during June/July 2004?

Idiot,

We are not your research monkeys. Do the research yourself.

BTW, want to keep ignoring my questions? The ones I've asked for three days now?

To refresh your memory, they are:

What is the current pH of the oceans?

Do you know what will happen to life in the oceans if the pH is lowered by even .1?

Do you know how and why the pH of the ocean waters are almost universally equal throughout the world?

Mike; June 24, 2008 11:31 PM
justin said...: In A Few Good Men, Jack Nicholson was pretty convincing as the Colonel who didn't tolerate anyone questioning his decisions.

"You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls. And those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Who's gonna do it? You? You, Lt. Weinberg? I have a greater responsibility than you can possibly fathom...

You don't want the truth. Because deep down, in places you don't talk about at parties, you want me on that wall. You need me on that wall."

I think the fear represented by this quote is the only reason McCain polls well in nat'l security. He doesn't understand the situation better. He doesn't have solutions for the problems. It seems to me that he would not be a policy leader, but rather would simply follow the lead of the military brass.

But, his infamous temper give him a Colonel Jessup-like quality, and some people want that.; June 24, 2008 11:38 PM
justin said...: I've been hearing some talk of Obama retiring Clinton's debt.

There might be a decent return for him in securing some of Hillary's supporters.

Is this allowed? If so, should he?; June 24, 2008 11:44 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Justin,

Federal law prohibits one candidate from giving such amounts to another candidate. I think the same $2,500 limit for regular donors applies, or a very similar number. However, Senator Obama can attend fundraisers that raise money for himself and for Clinton, or just for Clinton. He also can encourage people to give directly to the Clintons online.

Senator Clinton is in a bit of a pickle. Latest estimates I've seen is that she owes a bit more than $20 million, including about $11 million she loaned to the campaign. Federal election law states that she has until the Convention to repay herself, otherwise the most she can get back on her personal loans is $250,000, no matter how much she might be able to fundraise after that date.

Mike; June 24, 2008 11:58 PM
justin said...: M in M,
Thanks for the info. Seems like a decent rule, not to allow candidates to pool their resources- could give undue influence.

I am warming to the idea of Obama aiding the party, and starting to heal some hurt voters. I myself am still a bit upset about some comments, as far as I know, but it is time to be one voice saying vero possumus!; June 25, 2008 12:07 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "I love the James Dobson speach."

What is speach, anyway?

Kujo, there are lots of English Majors and "Teachers" at this site.

You need to check your spelling!lol

You make immeasurable numbers of errors in your broken sentences with weaker reasoning! lol

Don't worry, I know what you are talking about!

Kujo = BHO = Inexperienced = Risky!

Kujo = Funny!
________________________________

Roach & Rodent:

Please read ALL of my posts. Answers ARE there buried in each and every one of them!

Your problem is comprehension and understanding complex matters!
______________________________

richard: Don't cry over your tortured sentence. It was awful!
Admit it.

Maybe, it will improve next time!

_______________________________

I was reading about Cindy McCain in Newsweek. Very interesting person. Although she was driving "Gold Mercedes" she graduated with a Masters in Special Education, and was teaching kids with Down's Syndrome! What a dedication and sacrifice!! I was very impressed.

Stay tuned.; June 25, 2008 12:11 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "Senator Clinton is in a bit of a pickle."

What pickle?

She is the King Maker!

Without her blessings and support, BHO will get only about 25 million votes in the GE.

How many EVs that would give him?

Maybe less than 100!

FAR LEFT Liberal Ideologue cannot make it on his own! He knows it. He will NEED the Clintons to get atleast 251 EVs to beat Kerry's record.

Stay tuned, for the "Rest of the Story".; June 25, 2008 12:18 AM
justin said...: SON of Yam said...

Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah Blah; June 25, 2008 12:21 AM
apissedant said...: soft,
Thanks for the sweet sentiments and the funny link. They were supposed to ban smoking at the beginning of the year, but then they put it off for another six months. Why they banned it in coffee shops is beyond me and retarded, but still pretty funny!

Richard,
Her job doesn't really exist here, so she can make more money in the Netherlands (and 3 months paid pregnancy leave). Also considering the pregnancy, their healthcare is much better and cheaper than ours. I still have one semester left of college, and all I get paid is a tiny chunk of change from the GI Bill, and a little bit of money for teaching a few labs. So the idea is for me to finish my bachelors here, either sell or rent out our house, and then move there and start in to graduate school, where I can actually start making some money. If that sounds odd to you, remember I'm in Chemistry, and we do research in graduate school, so they actually pay us. Not all that much, but considering you're also earning a doctorate and or masters at the same time, it is not too bad.
So yeah, the time apart sucks, but taking care of our child is the number one priority.
Also, great little rearrangement of Stop's words... loved it.; June 25, 2008 12:23 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: some Idiot said...
Please read ALL of my posts. Answers ARE there buried in each and every one of them!

Your problem is comprehension and understanding complex matters!

Oh Great Master (cough, awwwwkkkk, spit)! I have no reading comprehension of poorly constructed arguments and responses, and my understanding of fractured English is less than it should be.

Please restate a concise response to my three questions so I don't have to scan back through hundreds of comments to figure out what you think you stated.

Again, my three questions are:

What is the current pH of the oceans?

Do you know what will happen to life in the oceans if the pH is lowered by even .1?

Do you know how and why the pH of the ocean waters are almost universally equal throughout the world?

Concise, consolidated responses would be most appreciated. After all, you've already informed me that I have a reading comprehension problem. If you would kindly post your responses, I wouldn't have to do all that dirty work to see if you responded, but just be able to look in one place for the responses.

Mike

P.S., I is only one. Addressing me as Roach & Rodent mights gets me up mixed, and not you want that.; June 25, 2008 12:29 AM
Independent Voter said...: p'd ant......when you say ban smoking are you just saying in businesses? Or do you mean a complete ban on the sale of cigarettes?; June 25, 2008 12:37 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: Roach:

What's your professional profile? I know you are a retired person living in MD.

You seem to have excessive obsessions on trivial matters of nano importance!

Roach, think big and act smart!

Go back and read all of my earlier posts if you NEED to know the answer. Lest, forget it and go to sleep. Your brain is lacking oxygen! Don't choke on your own saliva!!

P.S. Since "Rodent" is Yam's way of calling you, I prefer Roach.

Stay tuned.; June 25, 2008 12:41 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Idiot SON/Yammerer:

You state that you have responded.

You have not.

If you have responded but I didn't see the response, then point out when and where you responded to my three questions.

To remind you, they are:

What is the current pH of the oceans?

Do you know what will happen to life in the oceans if the pH is lowered by even .1?

Do you know how and why the pH of the ocean waters are almost universally equal throughout the world?

A nonresponse (meaning that you cannot state in a single message a concise response to each of those three questions) is tantamount to a self-admittance of your being ignorant, and of being an ignoramus, since you have stated several times that you have responded to those three questions.

It is your choice of responding, as prescribed above, or admitting that you are an ignoramus. I have formed my opinion of what you are, I'm just waiting for you to prove it.

Mike; June 25, 2008 12:53 AM
apissedant said...: Dave,
just in businesses and restaurants, like you guys have in California. It is just odd in the Netherlands... which is famous for pot and hookers. Oh yeah, they have tulips too.; June 25, 2008 1:00 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: Roach:

When you are angry and upset you come across more gentle and honorable!

A disturbed soul is searching for words in the Dictionary!! lol

Peace be with you,

Good sleep, Roach! Bahaaaaaaaaaaaaa.; June 25, 2008 1:10 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: I see Idiot SON/Yammerer is afraid to respond to JayW's bet. He also is unable to respond to my three questions about ocean pH. He has no concept of what constitutes a scientific poll. His pathetic attempts to spin anything and everything (and trying to make nothing into something) in a Repig manner reminds me of Brad Blakeman on MSNBC's Verdict.

He has proven himself to be a blowhard, and a total ignoramus.

Mike; June 25, 2008 1:23 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: DCW has posted an updated General Election Tracker.... first one in four days!; June 25, 2008 1:36 AM
Kujo said...: Mike in Maryland:

If you listen to Stop Obama Now's illogic on all his statements, kind of explains why he is a Republican.

Reminds me of Bush. "I am the environmental President". When of course he has done nothing for the environment and has harmed it more then improved it.

Republicans have been trying to tell everyone White is Black and think if they say it so many times that people will believe them, and their Republican followers do.

Stop Obama Now is the same way.

People won't vote for Obama, when look at the polls, look at the money being raised.

Obama does not know foriegn policy, when what he says makes more sense then anything McCain has said.; June 25, 2008 3:16 AM
Beryl said...: Why does anyone feed the obvious troll(s) Stop/Yam?; June 25, 2008 4:13 AM
JayW said...: If there was ever any doubt, there should be no more....

StopO and Yam are the same person.

StopO referred to Hillary as "The King Maker" yesterday. That is the same reference that Yam used time and time again during the primaries.

The chances that there are two people that are that idiotic is just not probable... they are in fact the same.

So, I guess I will have to offer my daily initation to bet on the general election to both Yam and StopO...

I'll take Obama, you can have the field. I will cover any amount you would like to wager.; June 25, 2008 9:19 AM
Independent Voter said...: p'd ant just in businesses and restaurants, like you guys have in California. It is just odd in the Netherlands... which is famous for pot and hookers. Oh yeah, they have tulips too.

-------

That is odd. However nobody has ever died of illness related to pot. Now hookers on the other hand can spread std's but are much less likely to do so if the profession is legal and regulated.; June 25, 2008 9:29 AM
jean said...: Good morning Independant.
Our wonderful weather is back;)
You know, if they legalized prostituion and pot we would probally pay off the national debt,
redirect our current resoures and not even raise taxes for universal health care and have paid family leave for 6 monthes.
The oldest profession will never go away.
As you said noone has died of illness related to pot. There is more danger with people taking their prescriptions and driving.
jean; June 25, 2008 10:02 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: kujo:

To remind you, I am an INDEPENDENT Centrist ( a former Democrat ), not a Republican.

I am asking what Newsweek is asking for a long time: (this week, p 28)

"He wants to change the culture there. But it's hard to fix a place you've never really known"

He is naive and terribly inexperienced. Our country is in serious condition: 1. Economy is struggling to grow - we may be in recession already 2. Islamic Fundamentalists are working hard to destroy us from outside and inside.

At this juncture, we need a very experienced hand at the Top.

I argue that BHO is NOT that person at this point in our History. Maybe, if he stays in the Senate for another 8 years, he will have the right experience and maybe then, he will be fully qualified to be the POTUS.

You are a good guy. But with wrong crowd!

------------------------------

Folks:

"King Maker" has been used by thousands of people in history.

Yes, Yamaka used it. It does NOT mean that SON is Yam. Absurd.

I live in Dallas, he is in Houston.

BTW, all Houstonians, go read this week's Newsweek. There is an interesting article about Houston!

---------------------------

Hello Roach:

Your seething anger makes you an ignoble person! Your bovine droppings make you smell rotten - but, oh well, that's what you prefer to do.

A breeze of common sense and an aroma of experience could very well clean your face with a gentle dose of perfume from Arabia! All bovine droppings would go away!!

Don't get angry that easily, which shows you have lost your argument already!

_______________________________________

Many of the Bleeding Liberal Ideologues at this site lose their temper so very easily. That has been the tragedy of their "Liberalism"!

Stay tuned.; June 25, 2008 10:04 AM
apissedant said...: Dave,
Smoking is bad for you second hand smoke in public is not really dangerous at all. Also, every restaurant and bar has the ability to make their establishments smoke free. Taxing the crap out of cigarettes is good, refusing to allow them to make commercials is fine, but basically making them illegal is stupid. I hate anti-smoking laws, but not as much as anti-smoking commercials. The "truth" commercials lie more than the tobacco companies did.; June 25, 2008 10:13 AM
jean said...: I have a great idea LOL.
Maybe obama can bring these points up with Dobson to see if he can get his support.
Have some humor. Stops ranting so early in the morning gives me a headache.
jean; June 25, 2008 10:14 AM
Karen Anne said...: "second hand smoke in public is not really dangerous at all."

Not sure this is true re cancer, but it certainly is not true if one has asthma or other breathing difficulties, or prefers not to have to go home to wash one's clothes, hair, and take a bath to get rid of the smell.

I really don't see why Obama supporters should pay Clinton's debts. I'm not chipping in a nickel. Let's see if she'll pay off the people she owes money to.

It's not like it was a normal campaign, she kept going and running up debt far after it was clear she couldn't win, and did her best to damage Obama's chances in the general.

What does he get by asking his people to help pay her debt? How valuable is her donor list, if that's what's up for sale? Somewhere I saw a poll that said all but 11% of her supporters were now going to vote for him.; June 25, 2008 10:37 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "Not sure this is true re cancer, but it certainly is not true if one has asthma or other breathing difficulties, or prefers not to have to go home to wash one's clothes, hair, and take a bath to get rid of the smell."

Excellent point on second hand smoking! Bravo..

Cigarette smoke kills ALL people, period.

_____________________________

Correction on Hillary Democrats:

Only 1/3 will vote for BHO.
Another 1/3 will stay home.
Rest will go for the Senior!

BHO is aiming for the "sty home" faction, I suppose. It could work, if they BOTH campaign together!

But, Bill is the Key to the Golden Temple of Power at DC!

See in the evening. Stay tuned.; June 25, 2008 11:26 AM
Keryl said...: Given that you've been entirely wrong about every preduction you've made about voting behavior, why are you still making predictions like anyone cares?; June 25, 2008 11:48 AM
Keryl said...: Make that "prediction"; June 25, 2008 11:50 AM
ed iglehart said...: Click here, John

Full article with embarrassing video; June 25, 2008 11:53 AM
jean said...: Ed
Oh my gosh.
That is great.
It really does scare me though.
jean; June 25, 2008 12:03 PM
Richard said...: SON - I have to ask you a question. Posting here is clearly important to you, else you would not do so with such frequency and such fervor. But this is a democratic blog, a place designed for Democrats to discuss politics and their convention. It is clear that your conservative talking points are not going to convince anyone here. Why do you persist in posting here rather than finding a more appropriate forum where like-minded or undecided individuals might actually be interested in or swayed by your arguments?

Mike in Maryland - I have to say that I don't think it is trivial or of "nano importance" that more that half of the world's animals (yes, more than half of the world's animals are marine crustaceans) are in danger of being unable to form their exoskeletons and therefore subject to mass extinction.

Apissedant - I am glad that your separation is voluntary, if difficult. I understand your dilemma. I hope that the next four months pass quickly for you and that you are reunited before you know it. Incidentally, I have a slight acquaintance who is/was a PhD chemistry student in the Netherlands. Small world.

Do you intend to return to the United States in the future, or will we lose you to the progressive politics of Europe?; June 25, 2008 12:04 PM
jean said...: Hello Richard.
I know you teach at a private school.
Are you on break?
jean; June 25, 2008 12:24 PM
Richard said...: Jean - I am indeed! And in four days I will be getting married! It's a very exciting time. I won't be around for a couple of weeks, though. Don't let McCain steal the election in my absence!; June 25, 2008 12:33 PM
jean said...: Congrads!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
OK just asking because things are different now adays.
First time?; June 25, 2008 12:36 PM
jean said...: You know.
I probally shouldn't of asked that.
You have got to be quite busy.
I'm going on 19 years with the husband.
I can say I've always loved him but sometimes didn't like him.
I know it is the same for him.
Good luck in your wonderful adventure. It is a lot of fun; June 25, 2008 12:48 PM
Richard said...: It is okay, Jean. Personally, I prefer the term "only marriage". ;-); June 25, 2008 12:51 PM
apissedant said...: karen anne,
You are 100% correct when it comes to asthma and allergies. This is why having voluntarily smoke free establishments is great.

As far as second hand smoke causing cancer, yeah, there is no proof. Although I will say that my grandmother smoked two packs a day until she had a very untimely death due to her smoking. She also watched my nephews all day and smoked in the house with them. They now have significant health problems. This is due both to age, and the amount of exposure. A half an hour meal with someone smoking 5 tables away will not do damage to any healthy person. Prolonged exposure to excessive second hand smoke is a definite serious problem.

Smoking is terrible, no doubt about it. So is drinking, and eating at McDonald's, sunbathing, and a million other things. I just hate the idea of attacking one thing as if it is the devil, and ignoring so many other serious problems. Obesity is the worst crisis facing this country, and we do almost nothing about it. Some cities have banned smoking in all public areas, including outside. Let us not make mountains of mole hills. If people want to kill themselves with cigarettes, so be it. If I don't like the smell of it, or if I have serious health problems, then I will avoid them. There are several national chain restaurants that have banned smoking in all of their establishments. I support this, that is capitalism at work. If another establishment wants to market to smokers, I support that too.; June 25, 2008 1:30 PM
apissedant said...: karen anne,
That is my major problem with Clinton too. If she had just been campaigning on who she was and what she wanted to do, that would be one thing. That isn't what she did though. Instead, she campaigned on how terrible Obama was, and now has an outstretched hand asking him for money. I'm not big enough of a person to forgive that.; June 25, 2008 1:33 PM
Richard said...: apissedant - I disagree with you on one point when it comes to smoke-free laws. The people who work in the establishments you think should be voluntary do not have a choice, and there is ample evidence of the health problems of people who work in places where they are continually exposed to second-hand smoke. Just as we have laws to protect workers from all sorts of on-the-job hazards when it is not in the employer's economic interests to do so, so it is our duty to protect these workers from the hazards of second-hand smoke.; June 25, 2008 1:44 PM
Beryl said...: apissedant,
We all have stories about second-hand smoke. My aunt died early because of second-hand smoke back in the days when they didn't know any better. My father died early because of long hours in a smoke-filled VFW center. Similarly, Christopher Reeve's wife, Dana, died of lung cancer after many years singing in smoke-filled settings.

I'm not comfortable with voluntary actions because this does not protect those who are the most vulnerable -- children and very old people. What about the many babies who are closed inside of the car of a selfish parent who must exercise their freedom to smoke?

Promiscuity, obesity, drinking (as long as no driving is involved), sunbathing and other things you mentioned are health risks too. However, I have no problem with adults doing things that are not healthy as long as they don't put others at risk.; June 25, 2008 2:04 PM
jean said...: Richard.
I agree that second hand smoke is bad.
I don't think that people should smoke in the workplace indoors or a restaurant.
On a open patio I do not care if someone has a smoke.
Some control yes, not absolute.
When I see someone who is obese eating massive amounts of fatty food I do not have the right to say to stop. That is a much larger problem in the US.
That is there choice.
It is proven that obesity is much more costlier to insurance premiums.
Current studies also say that smokers are less costlier than people who do not smoke because of the life span being 7 years longer.
If someone wants to do it let them have the choice.
Do I want my kids to smoke. NO.
That is my personal choice and my family.
jean; June 25, 2008 2:09 PM
Karen Anne said...: ap, I will look like a real fanatic here, but I am not a fan of outdoor smoking in public areas either. I think smokers have no idea how far smoke travels, or what it's like to walk thru a cloud of it to get into a market or to your car if they happen to congregate near it in a parking lot.

The idea that because they are outside the smoke is magically dispersed into nothingness five feet away is not reality.

When I was younger, I used to be just annoyed about the clinging smell, and somewhat worried about the health effects, but as I've gotten older and developed respiratory stuff, it is a real problem.; June 25, 2008 2:16 PM
apissedant said...: beryl,
I haven't heard of any law that prevents a parent from smoking in their car or in their home. That is exactly my point... these laws designed to protect do not protect and still leave these children in a dangerous situation. There is no law that says you have to work in a bar, or in a smoking bar. There is no reason for a young child to be in a bar. Old people similarly avoid them. There are also many, as mentioned before, that have instituted voluntary smoking bans.

I dislike people that smell bad. I dislike people that bring their crying children into restaurants. They upset the taste of my meal, just like smoking does to others. It doesn't kill me, just as someone smelling smoke doesn't kill them. Those with health problems can avoid those places where their health problems may be aggravated. There are people allergic to milk, peanuts, and millions of other things. We don't prevent everyone else that isn't allergic from eating those substances. Those people that are allergic have to do extra work and avoid places where those items are used in cooking. Those allergic to smoke can just as easily avoid those places.

As to smoking outdoors... what about the exhaust from cars? If I remember correctly, we have doubled the amount of CO2 in the air over the last several decades. There are many other very negative health effects of that, that are much worse than walking by someone smoking. We do not ban cars, or even just Hummers and other gas guzzlers. It is completely unnecessary to own a car in NYC, yet people are still allowed to. They have perfectly adequate public transportation that I have used many times, yet we are still allowed to drive our cars and destroy the air. Los Angeles and Beijing can testify to how terrible the negative effects of this is, yet we do nothing.

Yet someone smoking a cigarette outdoors is terrible? I know people with these health effects, and they go to restaurants and bars, and walk outside without a negative consequence. They avoid the areas where people smoke. Those people smoking all congregate in the same area, making it much easier for them.

How much money does obesity cause our nation in healthcare costs? Yet instead of charging them extra, taxing the unhealthy food, or doing anything else... we give them special rights and spend even MORE money so that they are never inconvenienced. I honestly don't care if they can't fit in the airplane seat, they chose to eat and not exercise properly. It is not some genetic thing, because that would not explain the substantial increase in obesity since it is the same DNA we were using 100 years ago. These parents are feeding their children terribly unhealthy disgusting food that actually decreases their cognitive ability, causes serious health problems, and makes them unable to do normal everyday things, and yet we do nothing.

I still believe those that smoke should be allowed to have their own place, and those that don't smoke should be allowed to have their own place. At least smokers pay a ridiculous amount in taxes, and higher healthcare and life insurance rates in order to pay for their own stupid mistakes.; June 25, 2008 3:05 PM
apissedant said...: karen anne,
So what do you propose? How many stupid and unhealthy things does this country allow you to do? Should smoking be made illegal because it is unhealthy and it annoys you? What about all those unhealthy things you like, that annoys other people? Because you're not a smoker, you have no problem discriminating against smoking, yet you will not be asking restaurants to stop using peanuts or peanut oils in their cooking. Both are completely unhealthy, have very little nutritional value, high salt and fat contents, but they taste good! Those that are allergic can't eat that dish, even though 99% of that dish is completely healthy for them. There is no special circumstance made for their poor souls.; June 25, 2008 3:08 PM
JayW said...: StopO/Yam,

You obviously read my ealier post since you decided to defend yourself against the use of the term "King Maker" (proving you are only one person, not two).

Anyway, I find it strange that you once again did not comment on the wager that is open to you. So just in case you missed it...

I am giving you the opportunity to put your money where your mouth is and make some easy cash. I'll take Obama in the general election and you can have the rest of the field. I'll cover any amount you care to wager. I am sure that if you believe what you say then this bet would be a no brainer for you.

Unless of course you are just full of hot air... an aopinion most, if not all, of the people on this site have of you already.

Prove them wrong... take the bet.; June 25, 2008 3:33 PM
ed iglehart said...: I like a quiet smoke, but always out of doors and never with un-adulterated tobacco.
;-)
ed; June 25, 2008 3:36 PM
Richard said...: JayW - It is obvious that nobody wants to take your bet, so please stop spamming this page with your efforts at bookmaking. As for you inference that those who do not take you up on your offer believe McCain will lose, there are many other reasons not to take such a bet. Many people do not bet because they believe it is immoral; others do not bet because they believe it is a waste of money. If you wish to make constructive comments, please do so. If all you want to do is post this same challenge again and again, then you are no less a troll than Stop or Yamaka.; June 25, 2008 4:20 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: New poll for California...

California:
McCain vs. Obama Rasmussen
Obama 58
McCain 30
Obama +28.0

Looks like there is no need now for McCain to waste his money in Calf.

Richard - Congrats on the upcoming marriage.

JayW- Regarding your posts re: betting Richard said it better than I did the other day. I was trying to be nice in my post trying to get you to stop because your betting posts were becoming annoying. When you ask people two or three times to do something and they don't then it is time to stop nagging ;)

OBAMA '08; June 25, 2008 4:27 PM
jean said...: apissedent,
I agree 100%
We have a new law in San Diego and I do believe in CA that one cannot smoke in the car with anyone under 18.
jean; June 25, 2008 4:56 PM
Karen Anne said...: apissedant,

As far as I'm concerned, people can practice any vice they chose as long as it affects only themselves and not bystanders.

Smoke affects me. Someone chowing down on fatty food does not.; June 25, 2008 5:43 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "why are you still making predictions like anyone cares?"

beryl:

Yes, I was wrong on my previous prediction that a FAR Left Liberal Ideologue will lose the Nomination. But, he was pushed up the Hurdle by the anti-women crowd in the RBC/SD. Fine. But the GE is quite different, no RBC/SD, Proportional Delegation etc.

No one is there to push up anyone over the 270 Hurdle, except the voters in their privacy in their voting booth! No Caucus, either.

But, still the Bleeding Liberals who lost the GE in 1980,1984, 2000 and 2004 are trying in 2008 hoping that they will succeed. Nothing wrong with that, as nothing wrong with me predicting their horrendous loss in 2008!

-----------------------------

richard:

As a former Democrat and an Independent Centrist, I visit DCW regularly and post my views, hoping I can change people like Yamaka, who has agreed to vote for BHO when he reached the 2209 TDs.

I am trying, knowing that there ARE lots of Silent Majority out there who are not participating in the verbal warfare here!

______________________________

On Smoking and Second-hand Smoking:

I am dead against both. I always remember how and why Peter Jennings died a few years ago.

When we mourn Russert's demise, I always remember the ever-charming Jennings, whose life was robbed by his addiction to cigarettes.

I don't mind FED declaring cigarettes and cigars as illegal products; it would save thousands of people every year.

---------------------------------
On the FED, Inflation and BHO:

Fed has left the FF rate unchanged. But our Dallas Chief Richard Fisher dissented 9:1 in favor of increasing the rate to curb inflation, which I agree.

Inflation is in the pipeline. We are heading towards Stagflation: slow/no growth plus virulent inflation, a very dangerous Carter-like period going forward.

If BHO is elected he will be CARTER II with massive inflation and zero growth. Because of his Big Govt and Big Tax Philosophy.

He MUST and WILL be stopped by American voters, who ARE all Centrists who need a pro-growth agenda of the 1990s.

BHO = Inexperience = Risky
BHO = Big Spender Big Taxer = Stagflation.

Stop BHO Now. Yes, We Will.

Stay tuned.; June 25, 2008 5:54 PM
tmess2 said...: First Read on MSNBC had an interesting post today of a focus group from rural Pennsylvania.

12 participants who were previously undecided (6 who supported Clinton in the primary and 6 who supported Bush in 2004). Currently, 5 support Obama, 4 support McCain, and 3 are undecided. If Obama is doing that well among the former Clinton supporters in rural Pennsylvania, the Newsweek poll is not the outlier.; June 25, 2008 6:05 PM
jean said...: karen anne

I appreciate where you are coming from.
Obesity does affect you in your insurance rates, airlines, cost of perscriptions (because of R&D) and many obese claim handicapped which is another scenario.
What do you do when someone wears heavy perfume and you don't like it or allergic.
You avoid it.
I live in CA and the limitation is fantastic on these people.
Free choice is important.
You cannot make one group pay and not another.
I believe that is called prejudice.
You make it sound like these people are evil.
jean; June 25, 2008 6:19 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: The pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com) composite poll results for Pennsylvania now shows Senator Obama with a 7.5% lead over McSame, 48%-40.5%.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-MvO.php

Mike; June 25, 2008 6:22 PM
jean said...: Look at Nader's comments on
CNN Politics about Obama.
What a Racial *******.
jean; June 25, 2008 6:34 PM
Beryl said...: Nader surprised me -- even after what he did in 2000. He is clearly a racist.

He reflects badly on old people (bad for McCain) and has proved to being narcissistic and out of step with the public. He has completely ruined his reputation as a consumer advocate.

Funny how the true nature of a person eventually is revealed.; June 25, 2008 6:58 PM
apissedant said...: jean,
I like that law. People that smoke around kids are terrible. Places like Busch Gardens, Water Country USA, and many bowling areas have specific closed off smoking areas. Several parents actually take their children into these smoking areas, and I find that absolutely terrible. Most laws don't do that, and I doubt there is any that stops parents from smoking in their house. I honestly would not object to laws that made parents not smoke while standing or sitting right next to their children.

Like you said, wearing perfume effects those people that are allergic, yet everyone is allowed to wear perfume. Those that are allergic have to avoid them. Basically, in one way or another, everything we do effects those around us. There has to be a balance between how great of an effect is allowed.

karen anne,
You said exactly what I said, which is exactly my point. You're not worried about things that effect other people, you are worried about things that effect YOU. Your perfume, or the peanut oil in food, or pretty much anything has a serious negative effect on SOMEONE. Wearing latex gloves in a laboratory or a hospital negatively effects many people, because if they so much as rub up against these gloves, they will have problems. You don't care about this, because it doesn't negatively impact you. We could all wear non-latex gloves and use non-latex products to help those people, but you don't propose that. You care about what hurts you, and that sounds rather selfish to me.; June 25, 2008 7:17 PM
Independent Voter said...: jean, "Good morning Independant.
Our wonderful weather is back;)
You know, if they legalized prostituion and pot we would probally pay off the national debt,
redirect our current resoures and not even raise taxes for universal health care and have paid family leave for 6 monthes.
The oldest profession will never go away.
As you said noone has died of illness related to pot. There is more danger with people taking their prescriptions and driving.
jean"

I Agree 100%. As to your last statement, very true! Just look at the reports of people sleep eating, driving, etc. while taking Ambien

--

I see the village DOLT is still yammering away about AOL's unscientific polls.

--

On a brighter note, there is an article that actually reflects well on Obama in the right-wing rag Newsmax. It can be found HERE; June 25, 2008 7:22 PM
Independent Voter said...: jean,

YES it is a gorgeous day! I couldn't believe how miserable it was over the weekend.; June 25, 2008 7:38 PM
Independent Voter said...: I'm curious as to what everyone (with the exception of Yam/Stop) else predicts the SCOTUS ruling tomorrow will be regarding DC's gun ban.

My thoughts are that it will be found to be unconstitutional, however, I'm curious what DC's argument was in front of the Supreme Court. I'm thinking that they argued that DC is not a state therefore can set their own standards as to the laws they set regarding gun ownership.; June 25, 2008 7:49 PM
stopOBAMAnow said...: I just listened to Gov Sarah Palin of Alaska on CNBC.

Here is something to think about:

1. BHO is going to bring in a VP to bolster his National Security/War/Foreign Policy like Webb or some other very controversial person.

2. Following this, McCain is going to bring in Sarah Palin as the VP.

This would teach the moribund macabre anti-women bigots of the Democratic Party a clean good lesson.

Sarah Palin is an articulate very charismatic leader than Obama or whoever he picks as VP.

McCain will get at least 350 EVs.

Revenge and Retribution is sweet.

SDs in the Democratic Party are the most corrupted politicians under the Sun.

They NEED to be punished!

Stay tuned.; June 25, 2008 7:53 PM
apissedant said...: Dave,
I too fear it will be judged unconstitutional, changing the way our constitution has been read for the past 220 years. Weird how they call themselves strict constructionists and then overrule the entire history and intent of our founders.

http://www.beggarscanbechoosers.com/2007/04/wild-west-era-had-stricter-gun-control.html
Wild West gun laws...

What did you think of the two SC decisions today Dave?; June 25, 2008 8:12 PM
jean said...: Independant,
After the court ruled 5-4 that the death penalty cannot be used on people who rape children I have no clue.
Knowing my tax dollars are going to pay for these pieces of crap for the rest of their lives in jail just ticks me off.
Sorry,
Just pissed off.

I am sure that is why.
They are not a separate country.
The court will say no.
Is it a good idea? Yea.
How many will Obama appoint?
jean; June 25, 2008 8:15 PM
apissedant said...: jean,
I think raping children is worse than murder, but apparently the court disagrees with us. On the plus side, it is cheaper to keep them in prison for life than it is to put them to death.

They also limited the punitive damages on cases where the negligence was found to be reckless, and not malicious or intentional to 1 to 1. The beneficiary, EXXON!!!! Yup, they're the ones that needed an extra 2 billion dollars. Oh, and the case? EXXON VALDEZ FROM 1989!!! 19 years before anyone got dime one out of the company. Tort reform isn't what we need, we need the defense to stop stalling court cases for 19 years, and the courts to actually agree to hear them in a reasonable time period.; June 25, 2008 8:33 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Open Thread Electoral Vote Contest

The closer the election is the easier to guess the winning number will be.
So we will have a cut off date for number submissions of July 13th 11:59pm Texas time.
Duplicate number guesses will be allowed since there are only so many combinations available.
A total of 270 EVs are needed for a clear cut win - 269 would go to the House for a vote.
The list reflects the number of EVs for Obama (vs. McCain).

Submissions so far:
stop0 - < 251 (McCain 350+)
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298
Emma - 300
Richard - 304
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315
RobH - 317 (1)
apissedant - 317 (2)
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538

Anyone that submits an early guess will be allowed to add (but not change) a second guess October 1st - 3rd. The early guess will be our main contest. The second guess will be considered a separate contest.; June 25, 2008 8:40 PM
Independent Voter said...: p'd ant - I'm kinda mixed on the results, I'm pissed about the Exxon ruling - they just gave them a free for all when it comes to screwing the environment.

On the death penalty case - this one I'm REALLY torn on. I'm against the death penalty, mostly because it doesn't really bring any true comfort to the family of the victim or to the victims themselves. If it were my child? Absolutely I would want the MoFo dead and I would probably want and would possibly do it myself, however I'm against the death penalty. Now I also do not think they should be considered a "protected class" within the prison system. I believe they should be put in with the general population (in prison) and let the other prisoners take care of them. It is also my firm belief that they should remain behind bars for the rest of their natural born life with absolutely zero chance at parole.; June 25, 2008 8:42 PM
jean said...: apissedant,
I am not sure about the cost but I will not get the satisfaction.
I am not proud of that but I really don't care.

In reference to the other ruling.
Bullcrap.
That is the theoretical rape of the american people. Get a lawyer,
write a check, no penalties.

How many does Obama get to appoint.
I need a highlight.
jean; June 25, 2008 8:42 PM
Independent Voter said...: jean, on the issue of how many will Obama appoint, I think at least two possibly a third.; June 25, 2008 8:43 PM
apissedant said...: Dave,
I don't really care one way or the other on the death penalty honestly. I have no serious draw to either argument. I have two points of contention: The law should be applied evenly. People that are being tried with the penalty of death should have access to good investigators and lawyers. John Grisham's book about that issue is disturbing.
The second is the idea that murder is the ultimate crime. Murder sucks, but once someone kills you, you're dead. Raping a bunch of innocent children... I honestly can't think of anything worse than that. To say it is less than murder makes me upset.; June 25, 2008 8:51 PM
Independent Voter said...: p'd ant, I agree with you 100%. I haven't read Grisholm's book so I won't comment on that at this point.

I use to be pro-death penalty until I saw a documentary a couple years ago which totally turned me against it. All it does is make another family miserable and give a very brief sense of gratification to the victim/victim's family. The pain, anger, etc. will never go away regardless of what happens to the perpetrator. Does that make sense? I hope I'm conveying my thoughts to where you can understand it.; June 25, 2008 9:00 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: To all in favor of capital punishment:
http://www.innocenceproject.org/Content/54.php

Mike; June 25, 2008 9:03 PM
jean said...: independent,
3 would be good:)
I understand why you are torn.
Putting them in the general populace of the prison will never happen legally.
Legally the only thing that can be done is go to the court and try to get the death penalty. They said no.
Nature takes care of the weak but also the bad.
We as a society are trying to take care of the weak(not so well sometimes)but we need to take care of the bad.
I think it is a penalty for me when my tax dollars pay for murderers and child rapist to live in prison forever when that money can be spent in a better manner.
They live better than the people in the homeless shelter who are trying to better themselves.
As a parent you say you would kill the pig but not in law?
I just say do it.
You of course have to due process.
If they are guilty then do it.

Being forgiving is one thing but practical is another.
I give people a lot of space.
This is not an instance that i will give it.
jean; June 25, 2008 9:07 PM
Independent Voter said...: jean, I TOTALLY understand what you are saying. And I would have to say this is probably one area that we are going to have to agree to disagree.

My main problem (and I know this isn't AS true nowadays due to DNA testing, but it still happens) is that we have people who have been put to death who were later to be found to not be guilty of the crime they were convicted. This is true even AFTER all the appeals processes. And the main reason for this is because the appeals process doesn't allow for arguments to be made whether the person committed the crime or not, arguments can only be made regarding the logistics of the trial itself. The only time they are able to appeal the conviction (as to guilt or innocence) is if there is new evidence one way or the other.; June 25, 2008 9:21 PM
Independent Voter said...: OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA; June 25, 2008 9:21 PM
Independent Voter said...: OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA; June 25, 2008 9:22 PM
tmess2 said...: I doubt that D.C.'s argument was based on its not being a state. There is a better argument for state's having a right to regulate guns than for the feds. To the extent that D.C. is merely an arm of the federal government under the U.S. Constitution (home rule statutes not withstanding), the Second Amendment clearly applies to DC. No court has ever held that the Second Amendment applies to the states. (The Bill of Rights only applies to the states to the extent incorporated by the Fourteenth Amendment and several provisions -- including the requirement for Grand Juries -- do not.

I am appalled by the politicians attacking Justice Kennedy for his decision on the child sex case which merely followed earlier precedents while ignoring the bigger decision written by Justice Scalia on the confrontation clause (Giles v. California). In the past five years, Justice Scalia has basically overturned 20 years of legislation designed to make it easier to get convictions in domestic violence and child molestation cases. If you want the judical activist award of the decade, it goes to Justice Scalia.

In light of Justice Scalia's opinion today, it really doesn't matter if we can execute child molesters because it's going to be very hard to even get a conviction.; June 25, 2008 9:22 PM
Independent Voter said...: I got a little over anxious and posted 1 too early but hey, it still got done, right?; June 25, 2008 9:22 PM
tmess2 said...: My hunch says that the gun case will not be as big a decision as folks think it will be. Even if you find an individual right in the Second Amendment (despite its clear use of collective terminology), there will still be the issue of what restrictions are permissible.

In the context of other provisions of the Bill of Rights (such as the First Amendment), the court has always recognized that the rights aren't absolute. So there is likely to be some form of remand to the DC District Court for factual findings on the justification for the DC law.; June 25, 2008 9:25 PM
Independent Voter said...: Very good points tmess2. But couldn't they argue that since they don't have any true representation in Congress that they do not have to operate under the Bill of Rights?

As far as your assessment of Scalia - Agreed! I for one don't criticize any of them for ruling the way they did because I think there are valid arguments on both sides of the argument.; June 25, 2008 9:27 PM
tmess2 said...: Talking about bad decisions from the Supreme Court today, once again the conservative majority wrote an anti-Native American decision. This time the decision rejected the jurisdiction of tribal courts over land found on the reservation if the owner was not a member of the tribe. And folks wonder why the U.S. has a bad international reputation on keeping its words on treaty obligations.; June 25, 2008 9:29 PM
tmess2 said...: The problem is that congress has authority over the district of columbia under the constitution (and over the territories). So any territorial legislature's (or DC city council) powers are merely delegated by Congress. If Congress can't do it, then the recipient of the delegation can't do it either.; June 25, 2008 9:31 PM
apissedant said...: Dave,
completely understand.

Mike,
I fully realize, but I also realize that many of those convictions were only overturned because of the fact that the men were facing the death penalty. If they had not, they would still be in jail right now. There are a pair of men mentioned in Grisham's book from Oklahoma that are in this situation.
This also goes to the point that the cases must be tried fairly, which almost all of these were not. As the death penalty is currently administered, it is not a very fair system, which is why so many states put it on permanent hold.; June 25, 2008 9:32 PM
Independent Voter said...: Thanks tmess2 - got it. I haven't really been interested in how territories play into the political spectrum (until now at least). I will be taking my final two poli sci classes next semester and one of those will be Constitutional Law, so most of my questions should be answered at that time.; June 25, 2008 9:35 PM
apissedant said...: tmess2,
So then why didn't Kennedy hold the precedent of punitive damages being 3 to 1, or 4 to 1, can't remember. That precedent was set partially by his own vote under the Reihnquest court. He also didn't follow precedent when he wrote that the mentally retarded and those under 18 could not be executed. He cited European laws when writing that opinion. I have no major bones to pick with Justice Kennedy, and I think he is ok overall... but don't act like he's just trying to follow precedent and do what the law says. He clearly decides the case, and then figures out how he can support his decision.

I'm unaware on the Scalia decision... I will have to read up on that one. Thanks for bringing it up.; June 25, 2008 9:45 PM
jean said...: Independant
nice job. Leah will be proud;); June 25, 2008 9:57 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Independent voter -

Brava!

I seem not be around anymore when the page starts anew. I'm happy that everyone is keeping up with it :)

Obama '08; June 25, 2008 9:57 PM
jean said...: independant
told ya:); June 25, 2008 10:00 PM
jean said...: Gonna go watch the daughter's basketball game.
Independant,
Unfortunatly not everything is logical. We are human.

This is no excuse for Yam and/or Stop.LOL; June 25, 2008 10:08 PM
Independent Voter said...: jean.....LOL! Enjoy your daughters basketball game. Agreed not all things are logical, and like I said I'm torn on the death penalty. I've gone back and forth over the years and probably will continue to do so.

-----

Thanks Leah.... :); June 25, 2008 10:14 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: It would appear that the voters of San Francisco will get the opportunity to vote whether or not to change the name of the Oceanside Water Pollution Control Plant to the George W. Bush Sewage Plant.

To qualify for the ballot, petition initiators needed the signiatures of 7,168 registered San Francisco voters. To date, they have collected 8,500 signatures.

Seems that the attempt is hitting some nerves in the loony-bin party, though:
Howard Epstein, chair of the San Francisco Republican Party, called the measure an abuse of the system and "loony bin direct democracy." He vowed to "use all means" to defeat the measure if it qualifies for the ballot. That includes those very expensive glossy mailers, he said.

I have to ask Mr. Epstein how many citizens had a say in the renaming of Washington National Airport to Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, and how many citizens were against that renaming? I believe only 536 people - the House, the Senate, and the PResident.

Article on the San Fran petition:
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/06/24/MNPQ11A3T7.DTL

Mike; June 25, 2008 10:18 PM
Independent Voter said...: Here is someone else's argument against the constitutionality of the DC gun ban. I believe it is a very compelling argument:

"States should not have any say in the licensing, selling, or regulation of firearms.

The constitution says that us citizens in good standing with the law, have the right not only to keep our arms, but to bear them as well.

The Constitution also says, via the 10th amendment, that any right not spelled out in the constitution (the federal level) are reserved to the states.

My personal opinion is that since gun rights have already been spelled out in the constitution, any regulation of them by the states is unconstitutional. (note i said STATES, i do support some reasonable regulation at the FEDERAL level)

Therefor, the burden to ensure that felons and other persons not able to obtain a firearm should lay at the federal level, not the state level because of the wording of the 10th amendment. The Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms should be the one and only regulatory and licensing agency for Firearms in the United States. It would mean stricter licensing requirements for individuals, and less paperwork for those selling firearms, and less hoops to jump through for individuals. Eliminate the confusing and bulky state laws, and streamline the process at the federal level." - Aaron over on the Obama blog.; June 25, 2008 10:18 PM
Independent Voter said...: Mike in MD - that is hilarious. I hope it passes.; June 25, 2008 10:20 PM
suzihussein22 said...: I used to be for the death penalty because of the chance that a convict might be able to escape. Security seems to be a little better in that section now though. Knowing now how much more the cost is for appeals, etc. has also gentled my views.

allergies-I have got a lot of them. They are impossible to avoid. I take medicine for them everyday. I can't go to any place that's having a seafood night. Second hand smoke is a major contributor to my upper resp. problems. It's even hard to be around someone at church if they've smoked before coming. You just gotta live and let live, otherwise I would be having major issues with my mom, who has smoked since she was 8. She has advanced emphysema.

Someone was just talking today about how they have more plus size "fashion" for kids instead of trying to make it easier to eat better. Will the insurance end up changing their rates for issues like this? There's definitely increased rates of pediatric cardiovascular and diabetic conditions. As a mom with 2 kids living at a working class income level, I still manage to buy whole grain bread, brown rice, low fat milk, lean grades of meat, and fresh veggies.; June 25, 2008 10:26 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Wow, I'm still in catch up mode here.

Leah- i v didn't let us down! I was refreshing and then poof, he caught it!

jean-lol...no logic for some.

i v- Good argument on the SC ruling.

m in m-Can you think of a better name to put on a sewage plant...and away goes troubles...; June 25, 2008 10:35 PM
Independent Voter said...: ss "i v- Good argument on the SC ruling."

Which one? The DC gun ban? If that is the one you are referring to, I agree, Aaron had a great argument as the unconstitutionality of the ban.

If you were referring to the death penalty, I still somewhat go back and forth on that one - although I lean more towards being against it. But then a case like the one that was ruled on today that I am kind of leaning more toward it....LOL; June 25, 2008 10:46 PM

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