Sunday, August 24, 2008

Sunday with the Senators – Convention Edition

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

I know it's the convention, but the Senate races are still important. So here's a quick round-up.

Delaware: Yes, Joe Biden is up for re-election for the Senate, and yes, he will remain on the ballot.

North to Alaska, where Ted Stevens trial is going to stay in DC. He had wanted it moved home so that he could campaign. Now, though, he'll be commuting in and out of his namesake airport. Plus, if he needs to take a quick break, Vladivostok Air has just launched direct service from Anchorage to Kamchatka.

No new polling since Begich got that 13 point lead just after the indictment in July.

Up to New Hampshire, where the most recent polling shows Janine Shaheen ahead by a commanding margin of 9 points. 51%/40%, or 52%/43% including leaners. Thanks to what we all learned about not responding quickly enough to Swift Boat tactics, Shaheen has a site up called Sununu's Dirty Tricks, which exposes the lies his campaign and surrogates are telling about her. (For those of us who live for this, yes, it includes the indictments).

If you remember when this whole thing started, there was a "vulnerable" Democrat. OK, I personally didn't feel that way, but the professionals kept saying that about Mary Landreiu, of Louisiana. Latest poll has her up by 17 points: 53%/37%. I say "HA!".

Minnesota: As Brownsox reports over at Daily Kos, while Rasmussen kept saying that the Coleman-Franken race was within three points, and everyone else gave Coleman a double-digit lead, that has changed. SUSA shows the race down to 7 points, 46%/39%, with Coleman falling from 52% in their previous poll. And remember, this IS the most expensive Senate race this year.

Oklahoma: Now here's a state that even I am surprised ends up on the list. This is one of those "should be gimmes", but Andrew Rice put up his first ad, and suddenly the polling went from Inhofe 53%/Rice 33% in June, to 50%/41%.

Georgia: Again, another race that is surprising. In the last two, and only August, polls, Jim Martin is polling 6 points behind Saxby Chambliss. SIX POINTS!!!! It's 50%/44% if you go with Rasmussen, or 42%/36% if you go with the Mellman Group. '

And finally, let's just mention our favourite not-a-North-Carolina-resident, Liddy Dole. Seems that Kay Hagan's ads are working. Note the trend from the poll dates:

SUSA - 9 - 11 August (5 points)
Dole - 46%
Hagan - 41%
Cole - 7%
Undecided - 5%

Civitas (Subscription Required) - 14 - 17 August (3 points)
Dole - 44%
Hagan - 41%

Insider Advantage - 19 August (TIE!)