WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
What is McCain's latest "senior moment", what does Obama need to do to win in November or whatever else is on your mind.
And please be excellent to one another. We do not accept name calling or any attacks on our commenters. Any objectionable comments will be deleted. Try to be civil.
Thanks!
Previous Open Thread is here
9481 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 7001 – 7200 of 9481 Newer› Newest»iv dave-Of course that makes sense. In the article it sounds like a comprehensive enough strategy to break away from foreign dependence.
For our part, our house can now pass the 30+ point energy efficient inspection. But it's going to take millions more households to make a bigger difference.
good night guys
Good night soft - and that's GREAT about your home. Mine would do ok, except the refrigerator. We are looking into replacing it, but need to hold off for a little longer...waiting for major sales. I don't think the economy has hit the major appliance stores yet :( SOON, VERY VERY SOON!
The Dinner - McCain did very well, IMO. I see why he tells so many jokes -- he delivers well. Obama did well on a different level. He is not a comic so him laughing at his own jokes was cute.
Hear tell that Sarah is going to be on SNL. I'm not feeling good about it. I don't think it will help Obama.
Don't worry Beryl! I'm sure that Obama will make another appearance between now and election day.
HE BETTER!
Sorry I've been absent. Hope all goes well. I just wanted to share my favorite part of the debate. Sorry if someone else already said it:
JOHN MCCAIN: "And I'm not going to stand for somebody saying that because someone yelled something at a rally -- there's a lot of things that have been yelled at your rallies, Senator Obama, that I'm not happy about either. In fact, some T-shirts that are very unacceptable."
I hope no one is wearing t-shirts. They are unacceptable. McCain finds them offensive. Wearing a t-shirt is just like advocating and cheering for the death of the future President.
Love it!
Even the BBC is now posting reports about 'Joe the Plumber', and they are not real complementary:
Doubts raised on US 'plumber Joe'
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7675278.stm
It is damn difficult to pull the wool over the Brit (especially the non-Murdoch) press. Although they do understate things at times. Could that be because they respect the intelligence of their listeners and readers?
Mike
m in md-I think the Brits also realize this election will have an impact on more than one country.
Hmmm...who comes closer to superman...who has had one committed relationship even when they weren't making that much money and had lots of bills and it was hard work that was successful? Could it be...Obama!
Good news from Rasmussen for Missouri:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with 52% of the vote while McCain is supported by 46%. Earlier this week, Obama was on top 50% to 47%.
Obama up 2, McLameBrain down 1, spread opens up by 3 !!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election
Mike
Politico/Insider Advantage survey:
Poll: Obama ahead in critical counties
The survey says that Obama is ahead in a critical county in each of four states:
Bucks County, PA
Prince William County, VA
St. Louis County, MO
Franklin County, OH
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14657.html
Mike
How much ahead in St. Louis County? It's become a Democrat lean county. For a Democrat to win Missouri, they need around 55% in St. Louis County.
tmess2 said...
"How much ahead in St. Louis County?"
Quoting directly from the article:
Obama also has opened up a wide 53 percent to 37 percent advantage over McCain in suburban St. Louis County, which does not include Missouri’s second-largest city, St. Louis. In 2004, Sen. John F. Kerry, the Democratic nominee, carried St. Louis County, the most populous county in the state, 54 percent to 45 percent.
Link to the article.
Supreme court overturns Ohio GOP voter suppression attempt.
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93SBC3O0&show_article=1
Leah,
Could you please post the Electoral Vote "pool" listing again? If it's not too much trouble?
With things looking up lately, I want to know who had some of the higher guesses (than my paltry 311.)
I know that way back when, I got to 311 by presuming we'd take Ohio and NV and VA among the risky choices. But I didn't dream of FL, NC, WV, MO, or ND. Now I need to know who did, and give thme some props.
Open Thread EV Contest
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1)
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
Everyone can add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
This is pretty good!
The real Joe the Plumber
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3nmVKghL-c
Brought to you by 'Plumbers Cracking the Case for Truth' - Hahahaha!
Pro-Obama (group of 562) rabbis rip McCain campaign for "hate speech"
A pro-Obama group of rabbis says recent statements by the McCain-Palin campaign are “creeping toward hate speech.”
In a statement released Thursday, the group of 562 rabbis said that “increasingly those speaking on behalf of the McCain campaign have been demonizing Senator Obama as not being like us.”
As an example, the organization notes that a sheriff recently emphasized Barack Obama’s middle name of Hussein when warming up the crowd at a campaign rally and that Palin recently said Obama has been “palling around with terrorists.”
The statement criticizes the Republican Jewish Coalition for putting “forward a list of people known to be hostile to Israel” and then “dishonestly” suggesting that these people shaped Obama’s views on the subject. “The RJC approach harkens back to the classic Republican red baiting tactics of Joe McCarthy and Richard Nixon from the early fifties,” the group said in a statement.
To read more: http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/breaking/110798.html
Here is the link to the full statement the rabbis released:
http://blogs.jta.org/politics/2008/10/16/2401/rabbis-for-obama-gop-creeping-toward-hate-speech-rjc-mccarthyite/#comment-11949
.
Volunteers are needed in MO, OH, WV, IN, NC, GA, and AR.
I wonder if Bill Clinton can go campaign in his home state, and will that help?
Thanks for the link on the Rabbis support for Obama. I encourage everyone to post on that blog to counter the RepubLIEcan smears.
http://blogs.jta.org/politics/2008/10/16/2401/rabbis-for-obama-gop-creeping-toward-hate-speech-rjc-mccarthyite/#comment-11955
So, Palin likes to visit the Pro-America parts of the country.
Needless to say Biden is having a field day due to she is just plain old ignorant.
SNL could be quite alot of fun if they include this comment.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/17/happening-now-biden-in-new-mexico/
jean
Well, now I have a tingle up MY leg. It's my reaction to the letter today from Robert Bauer (General Counsel to 'Obama for America') to Attorney General Mukasey that a) identifies the linkage between the current ACORN/"vote fraud" bull***t and the history behind US attorney firings scandal, and b)calls on him to expand the existing Special Prosecutor's role to tie in this current nonsense.
If you haven't read it, Talking Points Memo has it up on its site.
The case Bauer makes is damning, and completely comprehensive. It thoroughly exposes the Republican strategy behind the recent "threatens to tear the very fabric of democracy" fear campaign.
The reason I have a tingle is because this action takes the bull by the horns, puts us on the offensive, and will kill the "vote fraud" scam by exposing it for what it is. This is going for the jugular.
I tingle knowing that Obama campaign really is THAT GOOD!! They've got it covered. They really do. Hooray for our side.
Leah, thanks for the re-post.
I guess I was at 317 not 311 like I've had stuck in my head for a while. I'm sure I've got some good math behind that.
Interesting to see that every one of us - save two - predicted numbers less than most current compilations predict. NICE.
I'm going to submit a pop vote estimate. Please put me down for 68M Obama, 58M McCain, 10M margin.
Thanks.
I agree RobH.
Republicans are not accustomed to Democratic Party offense and they are learning that the NEW Democratic Party (including old Dems and those who have joined to change the country) is a strong, intelligent, and tenacious force.
The ACORN diversion is not only that but it is a way to further disenfranchise voters.
I'm sick of the Republicans.
Yup, getting closer to my 429. We will get her there with turning Texas Blue.......
;o)
Anyone that didn't watched Chris Matthew's Hardball needs to watch the rerun.
Holy smokes! That congresswoman was a huge NUT and Pat Buchanan is really losing it!
Just some good news.
Endorsements for Obama.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/17/obama-wins-backing-from-three-major-metropolitan-newspapers/
jean
Anybody here going to conspicuously boycott SNL this Saturday if Palin is going to be on it? I have already let them know.
leah-I hope I have miserably underestimated my electoral guess. We can't early vote right now if we want to. The lines are too long. That has got to be good for Obama.
So Palin says she visits the pro-American pockets of the country? Maybe that's why we haven't seen her here. I think I need to make up signs with that old picture of her in that not flat-busted t-shirt. I can beat her on that one and the mavericky stuff.
susi
I don't want to watch Sarah Palin in ANYTHING and don't plan to watch SNL. If there is anything of interest, it will be posted on YouTube.
I think Biden missed an opportunity today... he should have added to the comment about Palin:
"Ladies and Gentlemen, since Sarah Palin thinks that there are areas in America that are not pro-American - if she hasn't come to your town yet then what is it that she is trying to tell you?"
LOL.. there are only 18 days left in the race and Palin couldn't make all the rounds now even if she wanted to! ;)
Good one, Leah. You should send that suggestion in.
Leah - I guess she doesn't think Michigan is "pro-America" since McShrub has pulled out of there. Perhaps she doesn't even think San Diego is "pro-America" even though we are a huge military town.
NO NO NO NO! That was NOT an invitation!
Beryl, I don't want to watch her either, but I would like to watch just to see if she is booed.
Kudos to another community organizer-
http://tinyurl.com/66en22
We are letting our voices be heard. She is letting us know we should care what happens to our own country.
I thought the website source was interesting for this article-
http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_17565.html?from=hp_news
WOW! I just got done watching Bill Maher's Real Time on HBO, and one of his guests was "Frank Lutz" (I think that was his name) from Fox Noise (he's the one that was leading the Fox Noise focus groups during the debates). Anyway, he conceded that Obama was going to be the next president.
Anyway, now granted it's still early, but that just made me soooooooooo happy to hear, coming from a Republican shill.
Hi Leah please put me down for 53% of pop. vote. Thanks Jean
Senator Obama is finally visiting KC on a weekend that I have free. So, weather permitting, I finally get to attend a campaign rally.
I am hopefull of seeing our Claire and maybe our next governor at the rally too. Given the recent trend in poll numbers, this should be a very upbeat and ready to work crowd.
Open Thread EV Contest
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2) — (53% pop. vote)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1) — (O-68m/M-58m)*10
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
Everyone can add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
Goodnight ;)
I just read the latest Peggy Noonan editorial, "Pailin's Failin'." In it, she somewhat perversely states that McCain won the last debate, but she then points out that we STILL don't know what Palin stands for. Her classic line: "But it's unclear whether she is Bushian or Reaganite. She doesn't think aloud. She just ... says things."
I laughed out loud at that one.
near the end, she says that Christopher Buckley was shooed from his father's magazine, and why this sort of "party first" politics is destructive.
she ends the column with, "come and get me, copper."
heh. all in all, a good article. Worth reading!
51% of popular vote. I want it to be more though.
where do you get that number, beryl?
Open Thread EV Contest
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280 (51% pop.vote)
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2) — (53% pop. vote)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1) — (O-68m/M-58m)*10
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
_______________________
October submissions:
________________________
The EV numbers in this contest were submitted several months ago. Anyone submitting a new number will be shown in the October number section.
- - -
Everyone can also add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
Leah - OK here goes my "officially" updated guess.
Obama 353 EV's
For Popular Vote - I'm just going to give a percentage.
Obama 49.8%
McShrub 44.6%
Other 5.6%
I want to say 406 because I am still hoping for Texas to turn blue.. but without Texas I will have to go with 372 for my 'new' number.
Can we do new numbers? If so, I'll say 311.
heh! I remember when Leah came out with 345, and I thought to myself: "that's optimistic"
now, it looks likely!
:-)
but: never relax! keep on volunteering, donating, and fighting on!
Open Thread EV Contest
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280 (51% pop.vote)
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2) — (53% pop. vote)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1) — (O-68m/M-58m)*10
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
______________________
* * * October guess submissions * * *
Beryl: 311
Indy: 353 EV's — Obama 49.8%, McShrub 44.6%, Other 5.6%
Leah: 372
______________________
The EV numbers in this contest were submitted several months ago and those numbers are our MAIN contest. Anyone submitting a new number will be shown in the October number section.
- - -
Everyone can add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
"where do you get that number, beryl? "
Top of my head and highly hopeful. I'm really thinking it will be closer to 50%
My new electoral vote is cautiously hoping for Ohio, Colorado, & Nevada. My RCP map is 364.
Beryl-
Is your new number 311 or 364?
You're confusing me ;)
It is 311. I'm hoping for 364 but I'll be happy with 311.
Two more large endorsements for Obama.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/18/obama-wins-backing-from-two-big-papers-in-key-states/
100,000 in Missouri attend Obama's rally.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/18/scenes-from-the-trail-100000-in-st-louis-for-obama/
beryl, you are sounding down.
Of course there is a lot of work ahead but it really is a happy day.
Something to think about is that Palin has not seen the script yet for SNL. It could be fun.
jean
Here's a thought for ya'll...
I pulled up www.whitepages.com to look to see how many people in the USA there are that have phone numbers listed that are named Mickey Mouse and 25 TWENTY FIVE results came up!
So when the GOP are hollering about Mickey Mouse registering to vote they might be actually dissing real voters ;)
leah-Mickey Mouse? That would be hysterical! :D If people name their kids Peyton Manning...it could happen. :P
hey aunt jean-Why are you being more optimistic than me? lol
53%>51.5% pop. vote
I'm starting to see more yard signs go up, and gasp, they are 2to1 Obama/Biden.
Palin and the Chipmunks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-jaR6xKulk
.
LOL Soft.
Leah - that was great - that was Sarah to a "T".
At PeopleFinders.com, I checked for 'Duran Duran', one of the 'illegal voters' in the New Mexico primary. It's already been found that there is a Duran Duran listed in Albuquerque, but PeopleFinders has listings for Duran Duran in the following states (some with a dozen or more):
- Alabama
- Arizona
- California
- Colorado
- Connecticut
- Florida
- Iowa
- Mississippi
- New Jersey
- New Mexico
- New York
- North Carolina
- Oregon
- Pennsylvania
- Texas
- Washington
- Wisconsin
The one that might be my favorite, though, is a Duran Duran who lives in Colbert, Oklahoma. I'm wondering what Stephen Colbert would say about this? VBG
Ok, first Bill did undergo two sessions of PT this week. First one didn't go so well, and the second went pretty well (no need for pain "medicine" after the second one.
Now onto another issue. I was so pissed earlier today. I went into our neighbor convenience store (which I patron at least once a day). I was wearing my "NO ON PROP 8" (which is the proposition that will ban same-sex marriage in the state of California) t-shirt and Obama baseball cap . Well, I had some reich-wing nutjob follow me in, and as I was checking out, this ass wipe yells out - "YOU'RE GOING TO HELL!" as he was looking directly at me. I'm like, WTF, RIGHT? He says, "if you vote no on 8 and that terrorist you're going to hell". I responded with, "whatever dude, you're just a nutjob". He started to take a swing, but what he didn't know is that a cop had come in a couple minutes before (and couldn't be seen from the area of the store we were in). And the cop grabbed the guys arm (before he could swing) and cuffed him.
Of course, I was glad to see the cop intervene and knew that I hadn't provoked the guy. I did manage to get in one other line before the cop put him in the patrol car (yes he arrested him :), but I did manage to say (and you all know that I'm Agnostic/Atheist) was "I don't hold the same beliefs as you, and I'm actually quite glad that I don't. If YOU are the type of person that I would be meeting in 'heaven' then I would prefer to spend eternity in hell as opposed to spend it with you."
Now I know that sounds harsh, but it is the way that I feel. Now, for those who do believe, I'm not knocking that belief by any means because I know that if there is a heaven people like Jean, Beryl, AJ, etc. who frequent this blog would be there, and it would NOT be a place I would object spending an eternity, but for people like that guy, it is just appalling to think that a "loving god" as the religion of Christianity teaches would accept such a hateful individual simply because they "believe". To me that would be equal to baring false witness. Am I wrong in that belief?
oops, MY BAD! I meant to say "bearing false witness"
IV! I'm glad you are okay!
8-|
Thanks Vicki, had I not seen the cop, I would have definitely would have fought back, but I thought it was total poetic justice to see the guy get arrested. :)
UGH! Don't make fun of my repeated "would have". My fingers have the tendency to stutter. LOL!
I'm actually writing a paper at this point, but taking a break.
Wow Indy what a day you had!
I am glad that all worked out okay.
There is an interesting part on this link
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=385x218492
they talk a bit about Republicans and Religion starting at 2:15 on the link's video.
---
Also, all parts of yesterday's show is on YouTube.com if you want to see the whole show.
"..it is just appalling to think that a "loving god" as the religion of Christianity teaches would accept such a hateful individual simply because they "believe". To me that would be equal to baring false witness. Am I wrong in that belief?"
Dave, you are not wrong. That guy who yelled out at you today needs more prayer than the people he condemns.
Matt 7:21
"Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father which is in heaven."
We are given the commandment to love our neighbor. That love is not restricted to those with whom we agree. We are also told to do all things decently and in order.
Shouting out hateful remarks is either decent nor in order. It is certainly not done with love.
There is an anti-Christian spirit fostered by people like that guy you encountered. True Christians are constantly battling that spirit so that people do not reject our loving Savior.
Dave - I'm glad it all worked out. Now you know one of the major reasons I switched from Republican to Democrat. I couldn't stand the hipocracy that the religous right professes. Some of them are the biggest bigots I have ever seen. Reminds me of the Minnesota Congresswoman who was on the news the other night. She ticked off her constituents so much that she generated $30K in donations to her Democratic opponent in less than 2 hours after she was on the show. I hope justice prevails for her also.
Beryl, that is what I thought. I wasn't sure though since it has been years (15+) since I did any real research in religion. I've done a little here and there since then, but not deep research like I did years ago. Now granted, the research I have done over the past several years was simply coming from a philosophical view in countering attacks by those sharing the similar views of the person I encountered today, mostly my mother. LOL....I know that sounds bad, but you know what has to be done to argue (not fight, but truly argue) against something is to use their text to argue against their point.
I still say it is time for these groups to put up or shut up. If they were truly interested in "protecting" marriage they would be promoting a ban on divorce.
LOL MinGA,
I'm happy to say that I was one of those included in that $30K :)
Any official estimates on the crowd in KC. It looked like more than 20,000 from where I was standing.
Saw some of the Phelps nuts and some of the Palin nuts on my way in holding their hate-filled posters. What can you say for a ticket that has supporters who hold signs claiming that a presidential candidate is "public enemy #1".
Wish I had batteries in my camera, but am sure the Secret Service got shots of that one for their growing catalogue.
TMESS - the papers are estimating that there was 75K in KC and over 100K in St. Louis. Several papers show the same estimates.
Oh and Mike, thanks.
As a "good" son always does, I registered Republican (following my parents footsteps) when I turned 18, but it didn't take me long to realize the hypocrisy within the party and switched to Democrat in 1991 when Bill Clinton promised to allow me to serve openly in the military. When he signed the DADT policy and I was kicked out because the issue was taken out of the hands of my commanding officer, I switched to Independent.
It was at that time that I realized that there isn't any real party that I truly belong. Granted I align more with Democrats than I do with Republicans, but until the Democrats truly take on the true platform of equality for all, I won't belong to any actual party.
Like I have said before, I don't care if it is called Civil Unions or Marriage, as long as all the EXACT same rights are extended. But I have the feeling that even if the states approved civil unions and the federal government begins to recognize civil unions (equating it with marriage) then it would be challenged in the US Supreme Court using Board v Brown as the precedent....."separate but equal is inherently unequal".
WOW! That's ALL I can say......WOW!
Mike in GA - take a look at this article.
It actually states that since that comment was made by that ***** from Minnesota, her opponent had received over $450K in those 24 hours.
ROFL! I have the feeling that the more the Rethuglicans open their mouths the harder they are going to fall. I can't wait until Nov. 4th........UGH! Make it stop! LOL!
mike in ga-That's Minnesota nice for ya.
leah-Mike got kick out of that song too. :D LOL He can only handle so much of the chipmunks.
iv dave-WOW! That you had that kind of presence of mind is just awesome. You just don't usually get to see justice work out that way so good. Will you have to go to court? You are absolutely right. That's not righteous or religious. Why the government even has to weigh in on this subject is another question.
tmess2-Let's hope the Secret Service has a growing catalogue. I don't know why not, but I'm surprised how recently this hatred and anger has come out. This country needs to wake up and grow up. That does make it sound a little like a mental recession, eh?
soft - it was actually quite cool to see also. The cop gave me his card and took my information, but I don't know if any charges will be pressed...it is all up to the prosecutors. But the cop said that he could have charges brought up against him in the form of a hate crime. I asked him if he could report it as a hate crime, but simply have him charged with a simply attempted battery charge. (He wasn't sure, but told me he would let me know.)
The only reason I said report it as a hate crime is to track it, but not to charge him with one, because I don't believe that charges should be more stringent for an equal crime. Suppose I was simply a straight man who was against Prop 8. There is no difference. A criminal should be treated equally regardless of the motive.
I just watched some footage on CNN about people who attended Sarah Palin's rally in Johnstown, PA. It was really despicable. I would not want to attend a rally that was that racists. They also showed a flyer that is being circulated - it is a "buck" with a watermelon, fried chicken and other stereotypes. How bitter can the Republicans get as the campaign comes to the end? They literally scare me to think there is still that much racism and bigotry in the US. I've seen many examples here in Georgia where the racism is less conspicuous. Union members are opposing thier leadership and voting for McCain because they can not bring themselves to voting for someone who is not white. I hope the last two weeks of this campaign is not going to turn as vicious as I think it might.
Wow, that was 75,000 people, no wonder I couldn't see the podium from where I was standing.
Based on those numbers, even if you figure 1/3 of the folks being from Kansas for KC or Illinois for St. Louis, that would still be 120,000 Missourians or 8% of the votes that we need to win the state. More importantly, it is approximately one-sixth of the vote that we got in the metro areas in 2004 for Governor. If you can turn out that many people to the rally and get half of them to work for the next 16 days, we should be able to get an extra 100,000-200,000 votes from the metro area this time. That would be enough to turn Missouri blue.
Independent - I'm not a Christian, but that behavior definitely doesn't sound like what Christ was preaching, at least what I've read of his preachings.
I'm realistic that yes, there are people here in the US who are remarkably resistant to the idea that people who don't look or act like them, are still pretty much just ordinary human beings too. But still, it takes my breath away that someone would physically attack a total stranger like that (or try to). I'm starting to think that Lewis wasn't that far off in his comparison to Wallace.
Vicki
Rep Lewis was 100% right. He backed off of the direct Wallace comparison but that was political, IMO. McPalin is not saying the same hateful words and they may not be blocking access to facilities but they are sowing the seeds of hate just as Rep. Lewis said.
I pray they don't divide this country more than it is right now. Can you imagine how bad it would become if they got in office? My Lord, they are giving license to hate crimes which will be met with equal violence.
Hey Suz because it puts a smile on my face just thinking about it. LOL LOL.
Leah I will go with 347. Now I bet you guys are wondering where in the heck I'm getting that number. Well it's like this those numbers are special to me and isn't this a special year!!!! One more thing on the old numbers McCain 44% undecided 3%
Dave
seems like you met up with a jerk.It takes all kinds to make the world go round. AJ
Suz
I was refering to your post at 8:21 pm on the 18th. AJ
aj-Yep, I could remember the post from "that far back." LOL Let's see how good I remember when I'm, oh, 73.
m in ga-I had choice words about those Obama bucks. I thought they were being sent out as an ad somewhere in CA. I was going to ask jean and iv dave, but I wasn't sure how much they were still having to watch for the fires. I can remember my reaction the first time someone said stuff like that around me. They were somewhat chagrined to have their mindset reflected back to them, because I can be kinda blunt and people say you can really see an emotion on my face.
Not that we take the View seriously, but I thought this was amusing from yahoo entertainment since I'm awake adjusting to having heat on-
Kathy Griffin Slams "View's" Hasselbeck: Kathy Griffin unleashed her disdain for "View" co-host Elisabeth Hasselbeck in a new interview with Chicago's Windy City Times. "Somehow, Elisabeth Hasselbeck has snowed American audiences into not knowing that she is a f****** 'Survivor' reject. I am sorry; I am going to listen to the political beliefs of someone who wore wacky scarves on 'Survivor'? This notion that everyone has to be quiet and listen to Hasselbeck is out of control... I am not sure why Babs treats her like a rock star," Kathy said. We can guess which red-haired comedian will continue to be banned from "The View."
Come to think of it, I've never seen Griffin in action because I'm at work.
Ah, now I see Ellen has done an ad on No for Prop 8. She's a class act.
Good morning everybody.
Breaking news on MSNBC:
Collin Powell backs Obama for President.
Here's the video of the endorsement:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27265490#27265490
It's interesting to note that Powell is 71. I would never have guessed. He doesn't look unhealthy, nobody's ever hinted that he has to schedule his day carefully, and he threw the race issue right back at them.
The RNC has begun the s**t slinging on the funds raised by the Obama campaign -
The RNC's 'Danny Diaz' was just on MSNBC stating that (paraphrasing) "people are calling in to state that they didn't give money to the Obama campaign, but their credit card was hit for a contribution."
Can they actually get any worse with the s**t slinging? It's going to be a very wild, feces- laden two week period.
Mike
I just like this-
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/entertainment/7676119.stm
How Sarah Palin Excluded African-Americans In Alaska
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVMpOoegxQU
I found that video very interesting especially the end when they show the dance - there are no African-Americans in attendance.
Also, I have noticed while watching the past several Palin rallies that there have been no African-American secret service guys around her - and the last McCain rally there were none either. This is very disturbing.
Open Thread EV Contest
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280 (51% pop.vote)
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2) — (53% pop.vote/McCain 44%/und. 3%)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1) — (O-68m/M-58m)*10
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
______________________
* * * October guess submissions * * *
Beryl: 311
Aunt Jean: 347
Indy: 353 EV's — Obama 49.8%, McShrub 44.6%, Other 5.6%
Leah: 372
______________________
The EV numbers in this contest, at the top, were submitted several months ago and those numbers are our MAIN contest. Anyone submitting a new number will be shown in the October number section.
- - -
Everyone can add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
Sarah Palin Threatens America
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A53NT_4Y4Fo
.
I'' go with an October guess of 349. Think I will stick with my popular vote guess.
As to the credit card thing -- That one has been floating around for a little while. I wouldn't be shocked if some kids borrowed their parents cards to make donations to a presidential candidate and now are scared to fess up.
I am not going to say that it's not something that needs looking into as far as how people can charge things on credit cards (not that I can think of an easy solution), but it's not something that can be legitimately laid on either campaign.
Of course, whether or not an attack is legitimate hasn't mattered to the Republicans since at least Lee Atwater if not earlier.
I'm starting to wonder about the issue of voter fraud. My father-in-law passed away a couple of years ago in northern FL. The Rep. Party of FL has tried to get him to send in his ballot 3 times. Shouldn't he be off the roles by now? One card said Democrats are pigging out. Another one had that Obsession DVD with it that we haven't brought ourselves to watch yet. The third one just came in and says Democrats don't stand with gun owners and our 2nd Amendment right has never been in greater danger. Should this be checed out?
soft, I bet there's a place to report this kind of thing - I take it that his mail has been forwarded to you.
I noticed when doorknocking that not everyone's data is up-to-date; I got a lot of "gee, he hasn't lived here for 3 years!" kind of responses. Followed by concern that the party answering was registered to vote. I told them to check whether they were registered via the link at barackobama.com.
You could check there, just a thought. And if he's still registered, I bet you could call the county where he resided and ask that his name be taken off their rolls.
suzi -
1. The disenfranchisement of voters is a greater risk to voter fraud than the few mail-in ballots sent to non-existent voters. Republicans are bringing this up because they want to counter their voter fraud crimes. The Republicans stole the 2000 and 2004 elections and some of their people were actually prosecuted for their actions. Even though it was proven that they did these things, Bush remained in office.
You can google for the non-partisan references to substantiate my claims.
2. Our 2nd amendment rights are not in danger. I am a gun-toting Texas-born woman who researched that issue long before giving Obama my support. Obama voted against limiting guns post-Katrina and in DC. Many Dems criticized him for his pro-gunowner position. The Repubs in bed with the NRA who opposes Obama for one reason. Obama wants to hold gun manufacturers more responsible for violations of responsible gun legislation.
Again, google for bi-partisan reviews on this issue and ignore the crap you get in the mail and via Robocalls.
This reminded of the claim McCain made that he and those in his campaign wouldn't publicize our actions to other countries-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQ02ObqU6Dc&feature=related
He hasn't renounced or condemned this one.
This is what McCain said in 2000 about robocalls-
"I promise you I have never and will never have anything to do with that kind of political tactic."
He says he's developing his campaign. He shows he's devolving it.
Suzi,
It takes awhile to fall off the rolls. I am pretty sure two years would not do it, and I don't think the board of canvassers (or whatever they're called in various places) normally monitor death notices like banks do.
Suzi - When I get Rethuglican paraphernalia in the mail, I always cross out the name (with a sharpie) and then I drop it back in the mail. Why? Because they get charged again :)
This is a very good video (after you get past the hate-monger part)...
Colin Powell: Country First
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=243gXtXtEwc
.
You know what Leah - I didn't think of it that way. I just thought it was funny in an extreme satirical manner. I'll remove it.
Anyone who missed last night's SNL, intentionally or unintentionally, it wasn't that bad. Palin's role was a very minimalist role. She pretty much just stood there, especially as Alec Baldwin ripped her to shreds in front of her. :)
Dave,
I'm glad you see the light regarding that video. The McCain campaign is goating us into acting like them so they can come back with the "there is reprehensible behavior on both sides" nonsense.
There is no comparison. Obama supporters are not talking about killing McPalin.
OTOH, we are talking about putting their behinds in jail if ANYTHING happens to Obama or his family though. I lost $31K in my 401K this year and it hurts me big time. However, I'll give up another $20K to assist in that litigation effort. Believe that.
And if you did miss SNL last night, here is a link to both of Palin's skits:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/18/sarah-palin-on-snl-with-t_n_135887.html
I still can't get over that she went on there and let them mock her to her face! Tina Fey and Amy P. were awesome!
I refused to help drive up SNL ratings last night but I did see it on the web. Sarah was a waste of space, IMO.
GOP voter registration fraud case leads to arrest
Source: Los Angeles Times
Mark Jacoby, who was arrested in Ontario and owns a firm hired by the California Republican Party, violated state registration laws, authorities say.
By Evan Halper, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
2:38 PM PDT, October 19, 2008
SACRAMENTO -- The owner of a firm that the California Republican Party hired to register tens of thousands of voters this year was arrested in Ontario late last night on suspicion of voter registration fraud.
State and local investigators allege that Mark Jacoby fraudulently registered himself to vote at a childhood California address where he no longer lives so he would appear to meet the legal requirement that signature gatherers be eligible to vote in California.
Jacoby's arrest by state investigators and the Ontario Police Department comes after dozens of voters said they were duped into registering as Republicans by his firm, Young Political Majors, or YPM. The voters said YPM tricked them by saying they were signing a petition to toughen penalties against child molesters. The firm was paid $7 to $12 for every Californian it registered as a member of the GOP.
Several agencies had launched investigations into Jacoby's activities, including the Los Angeles County district attorney's office, which issued the warrant for his arrest earlier this month on felony charges of voter registration fraud and perjury.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-fraud20-2008oct...
Was it here that someone asked about a "donkey"'s backside in the SNL sketch?
I just watched the video, and I think that's a llama.
Here's a picture EVERYONE will enjoy!
iv dave-Hey! I like the little pully kind! :D You'd have to put me between McCain and Biden. We're at the 20 1/2 century point. It's a flip camera cell phone and a cordless land line.
Oh my.........http://www.cnn.com/POLITICS/analysis/toons/2008/10/13/mitchell/
WOW, remember the McCarthyesque remarks that Bauchmann used on Hardball the other day? Well her primary opponent threw his hat back into the ring as a write-in candidate.
What are the odds now that she will return to Congress? My thought is almost NONE.
Hi everyone how is life going for everyone.
Today was a great day and the 4th of nov. will be even better. AJ
I'm watching Obama at the Al Smith dinner........AGAIN! The reason I bring this up is because I was trying to think of who he reminded me of. Believe it or not, Red Skelton. I know, WHAT? Are you kidding? They are nothing alike. The reason I say this is because what made Red Skelton so funny is that he could never tell a joke without laughing during that joke. That is why Obama reminds me of him.
Spill AJ! What made today such a great day? Ah, you got a little summin' summin' din't ya?
Dave
mayybe maybe not LOL LOL you're such a bad boy LOL AJ
Early voting in Texas starts tomorrow!
O and Joe '08
Leah
ALL RIGHT!!!! I know what I'll be doing tomorrow!!!! AJ
GO O & J in 08! You have my vote. AJ
Karen Anne said...
Was it here that someone asked about a "donkey"'s backside in the SNL sketch?
I just watched the video, and I think that's a llama.
Karen Anne -
It was a donkey.
Donkey:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=donkey&btnG=Google+Search
Llama:
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=llama&btnG=Google+Search
A llama has a VERY long neck, holds the neck in a vertical position, and the head (on an adult llama) sitting atop that long neck is at or above a human's head. A donkey is somewhat shorter at shoulder height, does not have near as long a neck, and doesn't hold the neck vertical, but rather more horizontal.
Mike
Karen Anne
that was a llama My neighbors in Tenn. raised them. They are so cute when they are born. AJ
I truly hope the Obama legal team is investigating the FLIPPING of votes FROM Obama to McCain in West Virginia.
ANYONE voting on machines PLEASE verify that the machine is NOT flipping your votes. PLEASE verify that the person you intend to vote for is the one that is listed before completing the process. If there are ANY issues REPORT them immediately.
Enjoy voting Leah and AJ! I'm waiting until election day.
Dave
I will be careful and check it. Goodnight.AJ
This is a great video.
FL Seniors against fear and smears
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqwc43gd5hY
.
Goodnight ;)
Yes, I am embarrassed to say that Michelle Bachman and the "Obama is an arab" lunatic are from MN...I still believe McSame planted that woman so he could "pretend" to rebut the negativity and anger his VP choice fired up! I think "Joe" the plumber was too...it is all too convenient.
This is a comment from a local paper after Michelle Bachman was on Hardball. Tinklenberg who is running against her raised 600,000 since she was on MSNBC Friday...mostly from republicans.
Anti-American Republicans
The dismal handling of American politics and the inept decisions by the Repblican party are far more Anti-American than whatever manure Bachmann is trying to deposit. The country has been divided by their hate-filled spin doctoring. They've already redistributed the wealth to the top and are now crying 'socialism' when the only thing the Democrats are trying to do is put our economic tax structure back into balance. The middle class (remember us, Republicans?) is the engine of America. Yet the GOP would like you to think that the rich are the only ones responsible for creating jobs and wealth. Lies and hogwash! Most small and medium businesses earn less than $250,000, are responsible for a majority of jobs, and would recieve tax breaks from Obama. It's time for the GOP and their lying politicians to go! Let's put our tax structure back into the fair structure it was BEFORE the Republicans 'redistributed the wealth!'
Obama/Biden 08
Al Franken 08
Tinklenberg 08
Madia 08
From the Associate Press
Palin introduces "Ed the Dairyman"
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/P/PALIN?SITE=KYB66&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Who is next?
Hey! I've been away for a while. Work is keeping me very busy. But I thought I'd drop in and say that I placed my vote this morning by absentee ballot for Barack Hussein Obama and Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr. I'm actually thinking about asking for the 4th off from work to go to PA and knock on doors. The excitement is building!
By the way, are we still going to do an updated Electoral Vote competition in October? I will be happy to up my guess in light of the fabulous news of the past month...
Looks like Rev. Wright might be resurrected.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/20/rick-davis-were-rethinkin_n_136173.html
I just phoned Michelle Bachmann's Congressional office in DC.
I started the conversation stating that based on Congresswoman Bachmann's statement on Hardball last Friday that it sounded like she wanted to reestablish the House Un-American Activities Committee. If it was recreated, it is my opinion that the first subject that should be addressed is the Alaska Independence Party and the role that Todd Palin took in that party. And then the next issue they should address should be Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann.
The receptionist told me my remarks would be passed along, thanked me for my comments, and hung up.
I didn't swear. I didn't shout. But she still hung up on me!
Do you think I might have hit a raw nerve?
VBG
Mike
Ruby,
Then Obama can use some of that cash for an ad with Hagee and Palin's witchcraft guy :-)
Karen, you got that right! He better think twice on that.
Here's a Halloween treat for ya'll...
Yes We Carve
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXzGYWU97gs
.
Open Thread EV Contest
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280 (51% pop.vote)
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2) — (53% pop.vote/McCain 44%/und. 3%)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1) — (O-68m/M-58m)*10
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
______________________
* * * October guess submissions * * *
Beryl: 311
Aunt Jean: 347
tmess2: 349
Indy: 353 EV's — Obama 49.8%, McShrub 44.6%, Other 5.6%
Leah: 372
______________________
The EV numbers in this contest were submitted several months ago and those numbers are our MAIN contest. Anyone submitting a new number will be shown in the October number section.
- - -
Everyone can add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
Ok my guess
396 EV's for Obama!!!!!!!!!!!
Thanks leah. Now I won't feel so corny showing this picture-
http://tinyurl.com/6l5696
Just ignore one of the guys. :)
This is something some farmers are doing in one form or another as they see their main income dwindle.
Bachmann is having a worse day today too bad:)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/Oct/20/_anti_american__comments_hurt_minn__rep_s_campaign.html
The National Dems are pouring over 1 million in TV ADs JUST in HER district.
jean
McCain Employing GOP Operative Accused Of Voter Registration Fraud
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/20/mccain-employing-gop-oper_n_136254.html
John McCain's campaign has directed $175,000 to the firm of a Republican operative accused of massive voter registration fraud in several states.
According to campaign finance records, a joint committee of the McCain-Palin campaign, the RNC and the the California Republican Party, made a $175,000 payment to the group Lincoln Strategy in June for purposes of "registering voters." The managing partner of that firm is Nathan Sproul, a renowned GOP operative who has been investigated on multiple occasions for suppressing Democratic voter turnout, throwing away registration forms and even spearheading efforts to get Ralph Nader on ballots to hinder the Democratic ticket.
In a letter to the Justice Department last October, House Judiciary Committee Chairman John Conyers said that that Sproul's alleged activities "clearly suppress votes and violate the law."
Senator Obama's grandma was in the hospital last week and is now back at home. Senator Obama will leave the campaign trail after a morning event on Thursday and head to Hawaii to be by her side. There will be no afternoon events on Thursday and none on Friday - he will be back on the trail on Saturday. Some press will be traveling with him so he will still be able to give statements if anything comes up.
------
Senator Obama and his family is in our prayers.
I'm so sorry to hear that. She is also in our thoughts and prayers. Family is very important.
I'm getting the questions fine-tuned for our regional debate on Thursday night. The person at a Dem. headquarters thought our segway for the debate was spot on. There won't be any finger-pointing either.It's getting exciting. I found out I know more about issues and the mid-east region than a college student on full scholarship. I've still got 2 yrs. to finish my BS(take that however you want) and upset that someone else currently attending a university isn't more informed than me. If I can figure something out, anyone can.
Hearing about Joe the Plumber made me think of the Roto-Rooter guys on Ghost Hunters. I bet it's the show that puts them over the $250,000 and not the day job. :)
Jean - what is really funny is Chris Matthews gave Bauchmann (sp?) MULTIPLE chances to back away from the statement. She was VERY VERY clear as to what she meant, and not once did she back away from the comment. Therefore there is absolutely NO way it was "misread" or "taken out of context".
LOL suzi. That is probably true. Most of them are "1090" employees (meaning subcontractors). If they are a 1090 they rent the truck/name/etc.....and more than likely don't fit into the $250K+ range.
Indy,
No kidding. She is also dumb as a rock. The 1 million dollars going against her in only her district does give one a warm fuzzy feeling.
I saw you had an "interesting" encounter with the Yes on Proposition 8. My daughter and I did also.
We had to speed away as they came to the car. I guess they don't like disagreement:) She just could not understand why they would vote that way and act that way. That was a 2 hour discussion.
Glad Bill did better with his second PT.
jean
Jean - I think it's great that her opponent in the primary jumped back in as a write-in candidate. Hopefully they split enough votes to get the Democrat in there. :)
As far as the "yes on 8" crowd, some of them are just psycho. What kills me the most is that the Mormon church has jumped in and has become one of the primary funding sources in favor of its passage. I would have thought that of all religions (after being attacked by the government for their polygamous activities) would work to oppose it since the government has imposed its views on them.
Ya, no more need for the faux "medicine". He's doing better. He and I went to Home Depot over the weekend and there was a guy at the doorway promoting prop 8, trying to convince us to vote for it. I just turned to Bill and gave him a big ole kiss. The guy just about freaked out, so when we left we went back over and kissed again. :)
Dave he was probable surprised!
Here's a nice surprise that should be on the news tomorrow!
CBS/NYTimes:
Obama 54 - McCain 41
Obama +13
http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Oct08c-final.pdf
.
OK, I've held off long enough on my revised EC count.
Obama 344
McLamaBrain 194
(The above is presuming that Ohio goes for McBush. I will be very happy if I have underestimated Obama by 20 !!!!!)
Obama with 51.5%
McLameBrain 47%
Others 1.5%
Total combined vote will be in the 133 million range, an increase of about 12 million votes.
Based on my % prediction and total votes, that would be Obama 68.5 million, McShame with 62.5 million.
AJ - he WAS thoroughly surprised. When he stopped us on the way in, I did have a chance to say something to him, though. I told him to put his child in my shoes (hypothetically of course). I said, "if your child happens to turn out to be gay and wants to marry their partner, you are saying that you don't respect them, not only as a tax payer but as your child". And then told him he was a horrible parent....LOL
jean,
I think it's not just the Obama is anti-American stuff, we're getting a bit used to that kind of crap, it was also the wholesale investigation of people a la HUAC, added to Palin's recent what areas of the country are really American crap.
I swear the Republicans are going completely crazy.
Thinking good thoughts for Obama's Grandmom.
Imagine how proud she must be.
Leah, that was Howard on part of the pumpkin tape, I think.
1) Best wishes to Barrack and his Grandmother......
2) Michelle Bachmann....She the one that needs to be investigated by Congress for being "unAmerican".... Wikipedia says it all. In a way she is very much like Palin. Scary similarities.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michele_Bachmann
3) Early Voting open in many states. Vote Early - Vote Often. ;o)
iv dave-PDA alert. Somebody, gasp, actually saw 2 people who love each other. That's supposed to be bad, right?
My thoughts and prayers are with Obama's grandmother. I've even said alittle prayer for Obama. AJ
Suz
that's what is wrong with this world now not enough love. AJ
LOL Suzi, exactly. You also have to remember, it's not something you would see everyday at a "butch" store like Home Depot.....LOL
IV, so glad that you all are confronting bigotry where you find it.
Okay, here are my predictions for the election:
Electoral Vote:
364 Obama, 171 McCain
Popular Vote:
51% Obama, 47% McCain, 2% Other.
-------------
There is one other scenario I would like to mention (though it is not my guess for the contest). I think there is a small but significant chance of unexpected tightening in the final days which would force Obama to fall back on his 286-EV firewall. I think Obama still wins in that case, but the popular vote is likely to be 49.5 Obama, 1.5 Other, 49 McCain, denying Obama his popular vote majority and some of his mandate.
Open Thread EV Contest
*** MAIN CONTEST early submissions ***
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280 (51% pop.vote)
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2) — (53% pop.vote/McCain 44%/und. 3%)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M-58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1) — (O-68m/M-58m)*10
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
______________________
* * * October guess submissions * * *
Beryl: 311
Mike in Maryland: 344 — (O-68.5m/M-62.5m)
Aunt Jean: 347
tmess2: 349
Rich (vtslayer): 364 — (51% Obama, 47% McCain, 2% Other)
Indy: 353 EV's — Obama 49.8%, McShrub 44.6%, Other 5.6%
Leah: 372
Kujo: 396
______________________
The EV numbers in this contest (in the top part) were submitted several months ago and those numbers are our MAIN contest. Anyone submitting a new number will be shown in the October number section.
- - -
Everyone can add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
HRC is working hard for Obama and a Class Act.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/10/interview_with_obama_and_clint.html
jean
Ok, We cannot be complacent etc.
This will fire you up.
Cindy McCain about the nasty comments and how she met McCain,
not mentioning that he was married at the time.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/10/cindy_mccain_on_the_record.html
jean
I've been watching Hillary over the last couple of months and I am completely satisfied with her conduct. She is a class act. Remember that I was her #1 fan until around 11/07 and I still love her.
I'd like to see Obama in for 8 years so we can complete the job of putting the country back on track. Maybe Biden will not want to serve in 2012 and HRC will serve. That could then lead into another 4-8 years with her as the POTUS.
Bill and I have not reconciled, however. We'll just leave that alone.
Cindy just looks evil to me. I'm sorry but I couldn't stomach that interview. I can't get over her
-- not recognizing her siblings
-- saying that airplane is the only way to get around Arizona
-- lying about Mother Theresa
-- ruining the reputations of some of the people who worked on her charity when she was suffering from drug abuse
-- saying that she didn't understand why [Michelle] made that "proud" comment even AFTER Laura Bush cleared it up.
-- commenting about Obama not supporting the GI bill without a time-line when McLame didn't support it with a time-line
Cindy is not worthy of the First Lady role. Even though I didn't like Shrub, I always thought Laura had class. I neither like John nor Cindy.
I could only watch about 2 seconds of the Cindy McCain interview, that's all I could stand. She reminds me of a Wraith from Stargate Atlantis, only I think I like the Wraith better.
I am not worried about a mandate, as long as Obama gets elected. not having a mandate hasn't stopped any President in the past that I could recall.
Hey Karen Anne, I think she looks more like Draco Malfoy's mother in Harry Potter!
karen anne,
Oh my GOSH, I thought the same thing but I really know few people other than me and my son who watch Stargate Atlantis:)
I am so with you on that.
The Wraith are just trying to survive and feed for their existance. Cindy does it for fun.
beryl,
I hope you reconcile with Bill.
I also had a few problems, well more that a few, but I really think he thought he was protecting his wife. That can cloud judgement.
jean
I just wanted to make sure it was clear that I'm Richard (the same old Richard who used to post here all the time and who had 304 in the original contest).
Interesting comment on Pollster.com -
Someone reported that TV3 from Las Vegas sent a news crew to Nellis AFB yesterday, and Powell's "endorsement went over real well it seems."
Mike
I had exchanged some email with a huffpost guy about pushpolling, and he asked me for info if the pushpollers called me back (I had been out originally and just got them on my callerid.)
Here's the transcript from a few minutes ago. I could spit. Surely this should be illegal:
My callerid shows pubsrv 2008, 703-263-2155. I was scribbling down the questions, so this is not verbatim, but it's the gist of what they said.
This is Americans in Contact PAC. Would you be willing to take a 45 second survey?
Yes.
Do you intend to vote in the Nov. 4th election.
Yes.
If the candidates are John McCain and Barack Obama, do you intend to vote for John McCain?
No.
Do you intend to vote for Barack Obama?
Yes.
Something about do you think the President should be able to provide leadership in a financial crisis?
Yes.
Something like Barack Obama has gotten tons of money from Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (they may have said more than any other candidate) and that an official of (which one of them?) was in charge of picking his VP candidate, while McCain something or other complimentary. Did you know this?
No.
Is it important to you that your taxes not be raised or cut?
Yes.
Do you know Barack Obama has said that he will raise taxes by the largest amount in U.S. history. John McCain will help families by letting them keep more of their money. Barack Obama will raise taxes on the average family by $2323 (not sure I have the exact number.)
No.
Now for some demograophic questions:
Are you male?
No.
Are you 50 or older?
Yes.
Do you have Internet access?
Yes.
Have you ever contributed to a political campaign, church, or something?
Yes.
Something complementary about Americans in Contact PAC, saying if I'd like to help them (fat chance) their web site is at americansincontact.org and their phone number is (202)257-3721.
Just to be sure I hadn't typoed the (202)257-3721 phone number they gave in the message, I called it and you do get a message that it's them. They ask you to leave a message but also have an option to page.
So, I paged and left a callback number, the main number at the White House...
According to whitepages reverse lookup, it's:
(202) 257-3721
Type: Cell Phone
Provider: Southwestern Bell Mobile Systems, Llc
Location: Washington, DC
Uh, am I remembering correctly that cell phone users get charged for incoming calls?
I did use callerid blocking when I called...
Hello everyone.
Just a voice from the past who used to post from time to time, for those that may remember me.
I stopped posting as the Primary wound up, as it was time for our baby to enter the existence and consume my world. My baby boy, Tristen, came in at a new world record of 6 lbs. and 15 ounces of awesomeness (Guinness confirmed). He has no experience or qualifications whatsoever, and is still a far superior pick than Palin. BTW, he's an elitist but there really aren't any other baby's to compare.
It's so great to see all the familiar names and keeping the community alive here, and a few new ones to boot. The ever faithful and positive Miss Leah, Jean and Aunt Jean, Beryl, Appis, Tyler, MiM, and all the rest that I remember.
Is Yamaka still around posting, and still having those interviews with himself and the Obama in his head? Does he still post with his counter ego Nobamanow? He used to bring up some valid points but was easier to argue counter ideas to a tree.
I'm off for now but will be back more often now. Btw, my own personal prediction is a conservative 306-232 with 50.5% B.O - 46% J.M and 4.5% other. Tristen predicts much more of a landslide.
is anyone else watching Hardball?
Yow! he is going on with Pat B over something Palin said. she is trying to say that the VP is in charge of the Senate and steers policy.
whooooo weeeee!
Yo Pablo...does the name Tristen have an origin in the family? Just being nosy, Sue runs in my family in one form or another.
ka and jean-ROFL...the connection to the Wraith is genius. How about the White Witch in the C.S.Lewis movie? I love SG1 and SGA.
The voting lines are still long, but they are getting a lot faster now. It took a few days to get situated.
I just love how seriously they take Palin's apology in this article, especially with how she clarifies herself, lol-
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105455&page=1
Where is true America, Gov. Palin? Only where veterans are in your echo chamber?
Congrats, Pablo!
Welcome back.
Report: RNC Has Spent More Than $150,000 On Palin's Clothes, Accessories...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14805.html
.
suzi,
I hope you understand that you, karen anne (I do not intend to speak for her)and myself are really kind of freaks. I love SG1 and I was very sad when they stopped the series. Maybe I was trying to escape the Repubs more than I thought:)
Pablo,
Congrats on your Angel. Every single one of them start out that way, I have two teenagers so I am working on it:) Welcome back.
jean
leah,
I know you are not surprised.
You know that she is trying to just keep up with Cindy.
jean
jean-
I really am surprised that they spent that much money in one month!
I am sure that a whole bunch of republicans that donated money (small donors) are going to be a bit pi$$ed when they hear the news ;)
More proof of McSames's age snd as some have alluded to today...Bi-Polar
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/21/mccain-accidentally-agree_n_136702.html
Sen. John McCain offered, on Tuesday, what may go down as one of the more awkward moments of this campaign cycle, in which -- speaking in Western Pennsylvania -- he declared he 'couldn't agree more' with the sentiment that some of the people from that region were openly racist.
Obama/Biden 08
suzi - check out Keith O tonight. He talks about voter fraud, ACORN, and how McCain is tangled up in it all. More of McCain supporters are going to JAIL. Thank God!
McCain and the rest of the Repigs wants the world looking at ACORN while he steals this election. I read that out of all of the millions of votes in Ohio exactly 24 votes were fraudulent. The Republicans want to disenfranchise thousands of voters to keep a couple of bad votes out? Nope. They are playing the odds that most newly registered voters will vote for Obama.
I love that the Republican vote-suppression efforts are finally being seriously and systematically challenged in this cycle. This is yet another proof that Obama's decision to reject public financing was the right one.
jean and karen ann - not so big on SG, sorry. more of a Battlestar Galactica fan! did you know that McCain is a secret Cylon? well, not-so-secret.
google "McCain Cylon". I bet it will pop right up. seriously!
Has everyone seen http://yeswecarve.com/? People are carving Barack-o-lanterns to show their support for BHO. I'm going to carve mine soon!
Obama Assembles U.S.'s `Largest Law Firm' for Voting
Excerpt:
In Florida, Democratic lawyer Charles H. Lichtman has assembled almost 5,000 lawyers to monitor precincts, assist voters turned away at the polls and litigate any disputes that can't be resolved out of court.
``On Election Day, I will be managing the largest law firm in the country, albeit for one day,'' said Lichtman, 53, a Fort Lauderdale corporate lawyer and veteran of the five-week recount after the 2000 election when Florida eventually delivered the presidency to George W. Bush.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/20081020/pl_bloomberg/ahk4hvckpie
--------------
I think Senator Obama has everything under control ;)
richard,
Richard who teaches at the private school and knows latin?
Richard who is newly married.
Is this the same richard?
jean
Yes, this is he. I'm also Rich (vtslayer) above who posted with a 364-EV guess at the competition. I don't know how my name got changed, but I managed to change it back.
richard,
Goodness, so nice to hear from you.
I read your prior posts and thought maybe.
I hope you are doing well.
Married life going well?
jean
Open Thread EV Contest
*** MAIN CONTEST early submissions ***
JayW - 269
Beryl - 280 (51% pop.vote)
Hippolytus - 289
Dilbuck - 290
softspoken22 - 298 — (51.5% pop. vote)
Emma - 300 (1)
Aunt Jean - 300 (2) — (53% pop.vote/McCain 44%/und. 3%)
SarahLawrenceScott - 303
Richard/Rich (vtslayer) - 304 (1)
Oh Canada - 304 (2)
jean - 311
Mike in Maryland - 312
tmess2 - 315 — (O-65m/M-58m)*7
RobH - 317 (1) — (O-68m/M-58m)*10
apissedant - 317 (2) — (O-68m/M-60m)*8
Oregon Dem - 332
Leah - 345 — (O-69m/M-50m)*19
Woodland Sprite - 360
Emit R Detsaw - 429
Independent voter - 538
______________________
* * * October guess submissions * * *
Pablo (baby Tristan+): 306 — (50.5% B.O - 46% J.M and 4.5% other)
Beryl: 311
Mike in Maryland: 344 — (O-68.5m/M-62.5m)
Aunt Jean: 347
tmess2: 349
Richard/Rich (vtslayer): 364 — (51% Obama, 47% McCain, 2% Other)
Indy: 353 EV's — (Obama 49.8%, McShrub 44.6%, Other 5.6%)
Leah: 372
Kujo: 396
______________________
The EV numbers in this contest (in the top part) were submitted several months ago and those numbers are our MAIN contest. Anyone submitting a new number will be shown in the October number section.
- - -
Everyone can add an Obama pop.vote number and McCain pop.vote number rounded off to the nearest million - the last number (*) is the margin. Or just a pop.vote or margin # if you wish to do so.
___________________________
2004 General Election Popular vote
Bush 62,040,610
Kerry 59,028,444
richard,
I did it again. I should know by now.
Ignore the last question.
Sorry.
jean
Post a Comment