Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

What is McCain's latest "senior moment", what does Obama need to do to win in November or whatever else is on your mind.

And please be excellent to one another. We do not accept name calling or any attacks on our commenters. Any objectionable comments will be deleted. Try to be civil.

Thanks!

Previous Open Thread is here

9481 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 8001 – 8200 of 9481 Newer› Newest»

Mike in Maryland said...: Virginia - only a bit more than 50% of Fairfax County has come in, but so far it is going HUGE for Obama. Fairfax has a population of more than 1,000,000, so there is still more than 1/4 million votes still out in Fairfax.

Starting to look good for VA!!!!!!!

Mike; November 04, 2008 10:16 PM
Karen Anne said...: Yes, A shout out to Hillary. This has to be tough on her, but she has been a real trooper.

I read somewhere today that 9 out of 10 Hillary voters were for Obama, according to the polls. Not sure there ever were any significant number of Democratic pumas, although for sure a lot of her supporters were very disappointed.; November 04, 2008 10:20 PM
Independent Voter said...: It is starting to look REAL REAL GOOD FOR Virginia, North Carolina, AND Florida!; November 04, 2008 10:21 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Since it looks like Senator Obama will win and become our next president - I am not too upset that Texas has not turned blue (of course I wish it had).

BUT when looking at the Texas counties map ALL of our largest cities/counties have Obama in the lead! So, I am not feeling all that bad. Obama does have a lot of support down here in Texas and I think if he had had more time to spend here then Texas could have turned blue.

Obama is not trailing all that much behind McCain in total pop. vote ... so I am proud of Texas for turning out for Senator Obama as much as we have.; November 04, 2008 10:22 PM
Independent Voter said...: AH BALLZ! Sorry Leah - Texas has now been called :(; November 04, 2008 10:25 PM
suzihussein22 said...: leah-Yes! It's so good to be proud of this! Remember, remember, the 4th of November, 2008! It's so important and historical in so many ways. Did you see the article on HuffPo about Sam the Unlicensed Plumber? I was getting a kick out of him being vetted. :) He should have made Palin go first. Somebody get him a pillow. :); November 04, 2008 10:27 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Indy-

Kujo and his wife are somewhere in that crowd at Grant Park!

Can't wait to read his post here on the open thread.; November 04, 2008 10:29 PM
Joshua said...: RobH, peace.; November 04, 2008 10:34 PM
apissedant said...: Yeah, the media is being silly. I am calling Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina for Obama. With that, I will go to bed. Goodnight everyone, and congratulations!; November 04, 2008 10:35 PM
apissedant said...: I'm calling Colorado, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Hawaii, and California too. North Carolina tightened a lot, but I see it working out ok. I checked out the areas of Virginia that haven't reported, and they're very populous and strongly Obama. All good news.; November 04, 2008 10:36 PM
suzihussein22 said...: peevish-I'm glad to see the expert weigh in finally! :) I hope your moving snags are getting smoothed out.; November 04, 2008 10:38 PM
Karen Anne said...: Denmark calls it for Obama
http://amtsavisen.dk/apps/pbcs.dll/forside?profile=1026; November 04, 2008 10:41 PM
Karen Anne said...: Bachmann The Evil is somewhat ahead of Tinklenberg with 30% reported.; November 04, 2008 10:48 PM
Independent Voter said...: I can't wait! 10 more minutes and OVER THE TOP!!!!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 10:50 PM
Independent Voter said...: KA, CNN has her ahead by only 4%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/main.results/#H; November 04, 2008 10:55 PM
RobH said...: Virginia called.
Cali next.
Here we go.
Congratulations everybody.
We did it.; November 04, 2008 10:59 PM
RobH said...: Chamgagne here.

Yippee.; November 04, 2008 11:00 PM
Independent Voter said...: SWEET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Congratulation to EVERYONE including President Barack Obama!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:01 PM
jean said...: Congrads to everyone.
Now there is HOPE.
Hope for so many things:)

jean; November 04, 2008 11:03 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Is Everyone on here

I'm drinking tonight which is rare!!
May I be the first to toast our PRESIDENT ELECT AND VICE PRESIDENT ELECT

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA AND VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN

I'M HONORED!!!!!! HEAR HEAR Aunt Jean WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW WOW !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!YEA!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:05 PM
Independent Voter said...: CHEERS!!!!! AJ!!!!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:08 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: TO ALL THE DCW GANG - LIFT YOUR GLASS AND TOAST A NEW DIRECTION IN THE USA! I have enjoyed you all!; November 04, 2008 11:09 PM
Aunt Jean said...: To Hillary

you are still closest to my heart you did us proud THANK YOU from the bottom of my heart. YOU HELPED ALSO IN ME SEEING THE LIGHT.My tears are happy tears! AUNT JEAN; November 04, 2008 11:12 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in Ga.

CHEERS!!!! AJ; November 04, 2008 11:13 PM
Independent Voter said...: OH MY GOD YOU GUYS - He has taken the lead in Indiana too.; November 04, 2008 11:13 PM
Independent Voter said...: AJ - did you see my shout out to Hillary?

I also gave a shout out to PUMAs - not such a nice one though...LOL

CHEERS EVERYONE!!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:14 PM
Independent Voter said...: Colorado called - OBAMA!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:14 PM
Independent Voter said...: YIPPPPPPPPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!

FLORIDA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:16 PM
Karen Anne said...: President Barack Hussein Obama.

Wow :-) Good for us. Now the hard part starts.

Signing off for awhile to watch the Chicago event.; November 04, 2008 11:19 PM
RobH said...: Graceless Republicans.

Booing your opponent at your own champions concession speech.

Classless.

Good riddance.; November 04, 2008 11:25 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Thank you John McCain. I think tonight was his best speech of the campaign.; November 04, 2008 11:26 PM
RobH said...: How hard would it be for McCain to say:

"How does it serve us for you to boo your new President? Please, stow your anger and unite?"

How hard can that be?; November 04, 2008 11:28 PM
Independent Voter said...: KA, isn't that the truth!

AJ - I don't give a damn about the PUMAs either, that's why I said they can SUCK IT! LOL

Emit, I do agree. But as Robh said, he could have done a little more. But I think he did what he could to calm them without turning them against him in 2010 (provided he hasn't been shamed into oblivion.); November 04, 2008 11:35 PM
Independent Voter said...: SWEEEET!!!!!!!! NEVADA!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:37 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Congratulations, President-Elect Obama!

Cheers to all of us!

We got a call from the coordinator of our debate with the news also. I helped explain to Mike what he meant about trying to get 60 seats in the Senate. :); November 04, 2008 11:38 PM
Independent Voter said...: Suzi, I don't think the Dems will reach the 60 mark, but regardless, they can KICK LIEberman TO THE CURB!!!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:48 PM
Beryl said...: Yes We Did!

Praise God!

All of the stress and sleepless nights were worth it.

We just made history, people.; November 04, 2008 11:49 PM
Independent Voter said...: Beryl,

YES WE DID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!; November 04, 2008 11:50 PM
RobH said...: Just went over the results by county for IN and NC. We're picking up both these states as well.

Sweet.

Right now CNN has footage of citizens gathering to celebrate at the gates of the White House. That's as close to running him out on a rail as you'll get in this age. But W, make no mistake about what that gathering speaks to.; November 04, 2008 11:54 PM
suzihussein22 said...: beryl-Woohoo! Colorado is blue! I'm glad for you. I've also wondered if kujo is enjoying himself at Grant Park. I got a response about the letter from 2012. They sounded like I have a problem with my reading comprehension. Puleaz. I'm a reading machine. :) I never could find where to see what responses got shown. Mine would have been from Nashville, TN.; November 04, 2008 11:57 PM
RobH said...: I am in awe of this man.
I'm not easily awed.
But he is amazing.
Grace and serenity.
We can all learn.; November 04, 2008 11:59 PM
RobH said...: I am sooooooo anticipating this man's inauguration speech. Does anyone doubt it will be the most important and most effective ever?

If this is his thank yhou and acknowlegement, what will his inauguration hold??; November 05, 2008 12:15 AM
RobH said...: I might be a little too buzzed to write this, but here goes:

When the Biden's and the Obama's were first on stage for a spousal hug, without extended family, there was a moment, when Michelle and the Biden's were hugging, and Barack was standing a little off to the side, looking on them, and he looked like ........ a shepard.

I'm overwhelmed.; November 05, 2008 12:23 AM
RobH said...: ...sheperd....doh!; November 05, 2008 12:24 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Robh

have you had one to many. Of course there is reason to celebrate.. I'm having a drink or two myself which is rare. I'm a cheap date becuse I cna be drunk on 2 beers or 2 drinks. hahahahaha AJ; November 05, 2008 12:28 AM
Karen Anne said...: iv,

I'm sorry about Prop 8...; November 05, 2008 12:40 AM
Vicki in Seattle said...: OMG. we had our 90+ neighbor over (she's not a citizen) and we watched the whole thing. she just left to go home (I watched her walk home - she was happy and hopeful as are we)

OMG. OMG. OMG.

yes.we.CAN!!!; November 05, 2008 12:40 AM
suzihussein22 said...: a j-Don't try to have a drinking contest with me then. I'd win that one. :) I had my happy tears too.

robh-shepherd, doh :)

This is a night for all of us, buzzed or not. :)

iv dave-Not to upset you any more, but where can you find the results for Prop 8?; November 05, 2008 12:44 AM
Karen Anne said...: suzi,

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/04/MNCC13QR90.DTL&type=politics; November 05, 2008 1:02 AM
suzihussein22 said...: The results I found for Prop 8 had less than 30% so far.; November 05, 2008 1:03 AM
Karen Anne said...: p.s. Maybe the Calif.supreme court will throw out 8? I haven't been following what's been happening in Ca since I moved away.; November 05, 2008 1:04 AM
suzihussein22 said...: k a-Thanks, and Sarge is in good spirits for a tripod. We've elevated his bowls so he doesn't tip over.; November 05, 2008 1:05 AM
Kujo said...: I am back. I was to superstitious to celebrate to early, so I waited in the Sears Tower until one of the swing states swang!

Pa fell in to place, jumped for joy. Then Ohio came in and I new it was time to join the celebration.

They had huge jumbotrons setup showing CNN so the crowd would know what was going on.

I arrived just as they anounced Texas, not too long later the polls closed in California and for everyone here knows, it was over.

Speech was great as you all have heard. What probably was not captured on TV tears dripping down everyone's eyes. It was very emotional.

I taped cnn till 3 am, I am going home to relive the moment.

:); November 05, 2008 1:29 AM
Kujo said...: Is there an email address so I can send a copy of the ticket to Oreo. I think the ticket would fit nicely on the sight.; November 05, 2008 1:30 AM
Aunt Jean said...: I think it's time for me to hit the sack my spelling is getting worst I reread my last post and my spelling was terrible. Plus it took me twice as long to post this cause I was more careful but slow. So Goodnight my friens sleep tight and dream about our President elect and you will sleep like a baby.I will talk to you all tomorrow. AJ; November 05, 2008 1:38 AM
Independent Voter said...: Kujo,

His e-mail address is oreo@demconwatch.com

Suzi, Here is a site that shows the measure: http://www.cbs8.com/election_center/home.php; November 05, 2008 1:41 AM
Independent Voter said...: Goodnight AJ!; November 05, 2008 1:42 AM
Independent Voter said...: Suzi and KA, I'm not giving up all hope yet. It is 53/47 at this point with 33% counted. It doesn't look good, but CNN exit polls showed that it would be defeated by a 52/48 margin. So hopefully some of the coastal regions will come out strong against it.

One good thing that probably won't pass was Prop 4. This was the parental notification amendment. This is the 2nd election in a row that they tried to pass that piece of legislation. I hope it is their last.; November 05, 2008 1:52 AM
Independent Voter said...: I did however just get into a HUGE argument over the phone with my brother. He voted in favor of Arizona's ban on same-sex marriage. I knew he considered himself a "Christian" but I didn't realize he considered himself an "evangelical". Especially since he smokes, drinks, smokes weed, is in his 3rd marriage. Hmmmmmm, are those the tenets of being an evangelical nowadays?; November 05, 2008 1:56 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: INDIANA GOES FOR OBAMA !!!!!!!!!!!!!

YES, I'M SHOUTING - WITH JOY !!!!!!!!

This is only the second time since I was born that the Hoosier state has voted for the Democratic Presidential nominee, AND I'M ECSTATIC !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mike; November 05, 2008 2:14 AM
Independent Voter said...: SWEEEEET Mike!; November 05, 2008 2:23 AM
Mike-in-GA said...: Dave - take a deep breath - it is not over yet. Think about the positive that has happened and continue to hope that Prop 8 will go your way. As for your brother, ignorance on his part is something that you can't change. I had discussion with a brother-in-law and a sister-in-law over the past 3 weeks. I didn't lose my temper or scream at them even though I wanted to - I just called them bigots/racists. Neither of them is talking to me now, but I really don't feel bad about it. Both of them voted against Barack because he was black. I really believe he will bring things together and hopefully will help your brother and my in-laws start to see the light. That's about all we can hope for - we can't be responsible for thier ignorance. So again - take a deep breath and look at all the good that has happened tonight.; November 05, 2008 3:20 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Well I was born in Illinois and lived there until I was 15 years old, so I am thrilled of course that Illinois is blue and Senator Obama lives in Illinois - until he moves into the White House, but I am still pretty bummed about Texas not turning blue ;(

Looks like President Obama will put North Carolina in his column. And Missouri is pretty darn close... I am guessing that not all absentee ballots have been counted yet so some very very close states still have a chance of flipping, right?; November 05, 2008 3:23 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Missouri: The votes that Nader and Barr received have affected the out come of this close state.

North Carolina: The votes that Barr received in this state affected the out come of this state.

How about that!; November 05, 2008 3:39 AM
Mike-in-GA said...: If Barack wins NC he will surpass Bill Clinton's 1992 win by 4 EVs but will fall short of the 1996 total by 5 EVs. Missouri would put him over the top of both but the results don't look good. A large military absentee vote usally favors the Republicans.; November 05, 2008 3:47 AM
Karen Anne said...: iv, I also have a strange gene pool.

Someone somewhere was asking about the popular vote totals, shouldn't they be a lot bigger with all the new voters?; November 05, 2008 6:44 AM
Beryl said...: "If Barack wins NC he will surpass Bill Clinton's 1992 win by 4 EVs but will fall short of the 1996 total by 5 EVs."

Yep but a win is a win. This is what we've been praying for all of these months.

"A large military absentee vote usally favors the Republicans."

True too but I heard this time it will be different. The military significantly favored Obama. The vets graded Obama a "B" and McCain a "D".

Folks this was a great night. I exhaled fully for the first time in months. Like the day after Christmas as a child, I slept well but now I'm awake to play with my toys.

I'm so happy and want to see what President Obama will do next.; November 05, 2008 6:55 AM
suzihussein22 said...: I glad I underestimated the ECV. I got pretty close with the pop. vote, and I was personally thinking it would be 62.3 mil., but that's okay.

It's a great day for America.; November 05, 2008 7:28 AM
Beryl said...: I'm frustrated because I can't figure out how he jumped from 338 to 349. What states came in that pushed him up to 349?; November 05, 2008 7:30 AM
Beryl said...: Indiana - right? Nevermind.; November 05, 2008 7:35 AM
Doc Pickles said...: Come on North Carolina!

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/112/story/301112.html

"...it could be a while before North Carolina's 15 electoral votes are decided.

With all precincts counted, Obama leads McCain by about 11,000 votes out of more than 4.2 million cast. But state Elections Director Gary Bartlett said Wednesday morning that a small number of provisional ballots must be counted in the coming days.

However, Bartlett said, those votes tend to break along the same lines as the rest of the voting population."; November 05, 2008 8:16 AM
Doc Pickles said...: Hey if NC is confirmed for Obama that means I guessed correctly: 364 EVs!

270 is just fine with everybody though.

Cheers to the future!; November 05, 2008 8:39 AM
Doc Pickles said...: RobH actually won because I didn't venture any guess about total votes. Congratulations to RobH!

The Mayor of Toronto came to the Democrats Abroad party last night and was just as excited as everybody else in the room.; November 05, 2008 8:44 AM
Keryl said...: What a journey. I watched Obama speak from just a few feet away. The energy was amazing. With that many people, you could hear a pin drop when he spoke. (Except of course when we were cheering wildly). Tears, open sobbing, cheering, and overwhelming happiness. People everywhere, from the front row, to the folks on the street we saw who never even got in all had the same feeling. "We did it". Not "He did it". A genuine sense of ownership, of the the power not of the man, but of the people. I wish you all could have been there with me.; November 05, 2008 9:10 AM
Oreo said...: Funny... we're not hearing from certain bitter posters this morning.; November 05, 2008 9:42 AM
Beryl said...: No bitter posters -- LOL!

Keryl - I envy you for having been in that crowd. How early did you have to arrive to get that close.

In Denver, I arrived 2.5 hours early and couldn't get into the park at all. I had to go home and watch him on CSPAN. Fortunately, attended a reception with Michelle and actually got to talk to and shake her hand.; November 05, 2008 10:11 AM
RobH said...: This morning I'm perplexed by something, and I wonder if someone - anyone - can help me.

As Rachel Maddow would say, please talk me down.

In 2004, the total pop vote went:

Bush 62.0M
Kerry 59.0M
Other 1.3M
Total 122.3M

So far, at 10AM EST, 2008 pop vote totals are:

Obama 62.7M
McCain 55.5M

By my estimate, there are still maybe 3.3M votes to be tallied between CA, OR, WA, CO, Ill, ARK, SC, NH, and VT, of whch O should score 1.8M and M should score 1.5M

So can anybody answer this? For a week, we witnessed all time historic levels of early voting, right? Then, on election day, we witnessed all time historic levels of participation,right? So how come total vote is flat to 2004? Did this historic moment really only yield 2M more votes for Obama than W got in '04? Really?; November 05, 2008 10:18 AM
RobH said...: I should have said it diffeently:

If that's historic turnout, how come turnout is DOWN, on a percentage basis, from 04"; November 05, 2008 10:23 AM
RobH said...: PS:

You can bet I'm going to do a state by state compare to see in which states the Repubs actually fabricated votes in '04. Cause, I hate to say it, but that's the only explanation. Cause if we saw historic levels this week, than '04 was...what?.; November 05, 2008 10:34 AM
stopOBAMAnow said...: "Funny... we're not hearing from certain bitter posters this morning."

Congratulations to President Elect Obama, his family and ALL of his ardent supporters and lovers.

Job well done. Super.

You deserve the magnificent victory with 52% of Popular Vote after a very hard fought bitter battle.

Finally, America won. Americans will fight tooth and nail till the Election ends. Then, we all rejoice that the Process finally worked well. Finally, Americans will prevail, and we shall over come all the adversity and the challenges that dog us.

Without a drop of blood shed, there is going to be a smooth transition.

The well organized campaign should win, the most qualified and able candidate should win. And Sen Obama won, period.

I admire him immensely. His words are indeed very inspiring to ALL, including me!

I salute you all.

My hats off to you ALL, including Orea, Matt, Leah, Jean, RobH and particularly Mike and M.

Where is my friend Yamaka? I miss him too.

This is your moment and enjoy. You deserve it and you earned it.

God bless President Obama and his family and the US of A.

Amen. Assalamu Alaikum. Peace Be with you.; November 05, 2008 10:43 AM
Oreo said...: Wow... Stop I guarantee you I won't delete that comment.; November 05, 2008 11:08 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Here is something I've been thinking about:

What if President Obama, some time after the Inauguration and after Congress has passed some of the first legislation, were to go, live, on SLimebaugh and/or O'Really and have a discussion over a full program - no other guests, being on from start to finish of one program?

I could see SLimebaugh treating him as he treats all other people he interviews - with disdain and mocking them. I could see SLimebaugh and O'Really interrupting constantly and trying to change the subject. I could see SLimebaugh telling the producers to cut off phone calls of those whose opinion he doesn't want to hear.

However, those tactics wouldn't work with Obama, as he would be able to bring the discussion back to topics SLimebaugh and O'Really don't want broached. And after the first or second caller was cut off, Obama would be in position to tell SLimebaugh that the opinions of others are important and should be listened to.

Advantages:
- The bullying of SLimebaugh and O'Really would be derailed, at least temporarily;

- The careers of Slimebaugh and O'Really could really tank, at least temporarily, but maybe longer, as Americans would have the opportunity to see how much in the gutter those two dwell.

Disavantages:
- Appearing on their shows could have the impression of a legitimizing of Slimebaugh and O'Really. Why treat the gutter dwellers with any respect?

- America is facing too many problems right now to afford giving any time to the gutter dwellers. But do we ignore them at our own peril in five ro ten years? Do we allow them to continue on with their constant attempts to sow disunity and discord in America?

There are some that do not even deserve being considered with such 'respect', including Coultergeist, Michelle Malkin, and other bottom of the sewage pit viruses.

Mike; November 05, 2008 11:30 AM
jean said...: We talked about it a few months ago and here is some info to go have some fun:)

Cheech and Chong dates.

http://cheechandchong.tickets.musictoday.com/CheechandChong/calendar.aspx

Relaxation is also important.

jean; November 05, 2008 12:09 PM
Beryl said...: Mike in Maryland
I think the new era of positivity and change will marginalize them. They will follow in the steps of Joe McCarthy. They will be censured by the public.

Watch and see. I watched "The View" today and even that Elisabeth woman cleaned up her act.

“It is hard for thee to kick against the pricks.” Acts 9:5; November 05, 2008 12:35 PM
Kujo said...: I think it may need more investigation then what I done, but I am suprised on the voter turnout not being higher. As of right now, here are the totals:

Obama 63,112,170 (52%)
McCain 55,867,073 (46%)
Total 118,979,243

2004

Bush 62,040,606 (51%)
Kerry 59,028,109 (49%)
Total 121,068,715

If I scroll across the states there are still more votes out there. I am interest in seeing the total results.

With the voter registration being up in the last 4 years, this would drop the percent voter turnout vs total registered voter.; November 05, 2008 12:50 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: If the overall numbers are down - it appears to me that the Republicans did not turn out like they did in 2004. I too would be interested in a state by state comparison.; November 05, 2008 1:35 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: For now let's all just enjoy the results of last night. I know myself, Beryl, Aunt Jean and many others (including you IV Dave) need to step back and rest awhile. I know I was on political overload for the last few days. I'm happy and glad that it all turned out great.; November 05, 2008 1:38 PM
Kujo said...: I feel today I have just woke from a year long comma.

I have a job, a wife, 2 kids.

What happen to my investements?

What happen to my waist line?

.....

I can see clearly again!!!!; November 05, 2008 3:00 PM
RobH said...: Kujo,

Check my post at 10:18. I made a calculation and underestimated the remainng votes outstanding at the time. Should have been 4.3 million (I misread Washington precincts reporting.)

But it doesn't change my basic premise, and I don't agree with Mike that it can be explained by Republicans failing to turn out. If these numbers hold out, the story of this election is that Bush to McCain went down 6M (62M - 56M) and Kerry to Obama went up 6M (59M - 65M.) Yeah, they failed to turn out, and were offset "exactly" by increased Dem turnout.

But we've hear of "historic" total turnout. That's not explained by plus six minus six.

It's fishy.; November 05, 2008 3:00 PM
RobH said...: To Mike and Kujo.

I'm going to do a state by stae spreadsheet when all the states get to 98 or 99%. Right now the laggards are:

% est (K)votes
ME 88 80
NH 92 50
VT 92 20
ARK 97 30
CO 95 150
WA 56 1,260
OR 67 600
CA 95 300

At this moment its 119.5M votes tallied with approx 2.5M to go. that's 122M - totally flat to '04.; November 05, 2008 3:11 PM
RobH said...: Ugh,

Sorry about that. First two digits in the post above are "precincts reporting" as of now. last grouped digits are my calculation of what that translates to in approximate votes remaining untallied.; November 05, 2008 3:13 PM
jean said...: I sometimes cannot, no, I do not understand the Repubs.
This is so rude and disrespectful, well, I guess they ARE just Repubs.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/05/mccain-not-included-on-cpac-invite/; November 05, 2008 3:26 PM
Vicki in Seattle said...: well, the last of the hangover has worn off (good French champagne)! now I have to get into the office for a bit.

look, we still have a lot of work to do to make things right. also, we still have *shudder* another two and half months of you-know-who.; November 05, 2008 3:26 PM
Beryl said...: Jean,
I agree, they should treat McCain that way. He did everything they asked of him including abandoning his principles.

Palin is the only person I'd like to see slink back up her hole up north. She actually wanted to speak during McCain's concession speech last night. I'm glad they didn't let her.; November 05, 2008 3:30 PM
jean said...: beryl,
Palin is a waste of space on this planet.

There is no doubt in my mind that McCain will run again for Senate.
He needs to dump the Repubs and run as an Independant. That would be really cool.

jean; November 05, 2008 3:38 PM
jean said...: vicki,
That is the hang-over talking:)
You need to remember the water and Aleve.

We still have a couple of days to catch up on those things that have been neglected since the election is over.
I refuse to think about Bush right now and remember, the transition team is already in place.

Only happy thoughts today VBG.

jean; November 05, 2008 3:41 PM
jean said...: Obama announces trasition team.

Supervising the day-to-day activities of the transition will be:

Transition Senior Staff:

Chris Lu - Executive Director

Dan Pfeiffer - Communications Director

Stephanie Cutter - Chief Spokesperson

Cassandra Butts - General Counsel

Jim Messina - Personnel Director

Patrick Gaspard - Associate Personnel Director

Christine Varney - Personnel Counsel

Melody Barnes - Co-Director of Agency Review

Lisa Brown - Co-Director of Agency Review

Phil Schiliro - Director of Congressional Relations

Michael Strautmanis - Director of Public Liaison and Intergovernmental Affairs

Katy Kale - Director of Operations

Brad Kiley - Director of Operations; November 05, 2008 4:45 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: What a wonderful day today is ;)
Except for my hangover. I am getting to old to be up until 4am drinking rum and coke ;(

For all of ya'll that have been watching the www.PalinAsPresident.com website
renamed now as http://www.palinaspresident.us/never/index.html

THERE IS A NEW ONE NOW

www.BarackAsPresident.com

Be sure to go there with your speakers on.

I wonder if they will start adding new stuff after the inauguration.

God bless President-Elect Obama and his family and God bless America!; November 05, 2008 5:10 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: To stop0-

Thank you for posting your comment.

Heated battles are good for democracy and now is the time for all people in America to work together to make the world a better place.; November 05, 2008 5:17 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: RobH and others on the numbers....

I don't think the Provisional and Absentee counts are included in the numbers you are looking at in all cases.

Some States allow the Absentee Ballots to be postmarked as late as election day, and Provisional's are typically not counted unless they can change the results. I.E. there is a victory of 20,000 votes and only 15,000 Provisionals, it would be a waste of time to manually verify the voters and then score the votes.

Just a thought.

The critical thing -

PRESIDENT OBAMA!!!; November 05, 2008 5:40 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Regarding our OPEN THREAD EV CONTEST

MAIN CONTEST winner with the closest number is:

Woodland Sprite - 360

---------------------

As far as the 'last minute' winner...

CD2 in Nebraska hasn't been called.

So the final number should be either 364 OR 365.

Listed in order of submission:

1) Richard/Rich (vtslayer): 364 — (51% Obama, 47% McCain, 2% Other)
2) Oh Canada: 364
3) RobH: 364 — (Pop vote: O=51.5% M=46.5% - 137M total votes 0=71M, McC=64M)

Note: Note: In the last minute section Rich/vtslayer submitted 364 first, Oh Canada second, RobH third. I had Oh Canada first and RobH second on previous comments, but Rich was on the list above those two fellas with the same number.

Congrats to everyone that participated :); November 05, 2008 5:42 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Or maybe I put Rich in the wrong order when I added him - now I am not sure.

So ALL three of ya'll are winners ;); November 05, 2008 5:57 PM
Beryl said...: I guessed a low EV because, like others, I didn't want to be disappointed. I've never been so happy to lose a contest in my life.

This is such a glorious time to be in the United States of America!!!; November 05, 2008 6:08 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey guys I don't know if anyone has heard about Hillary speech but here it is:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/05/angry.mccain.supporters/index.html#cnnSTCOther2

I know in my heart that she is sad that it's not her but she's also happy for Obama and the American people and knows if not her at least there is a good man as our leader. AJ; November 05, 2008 7:40 PM
Aunt Jean said...: At least I won the % amount of votes that Obama got but missed McCain by 2% and others I gave 3% and they got 1%. Also on the Oct. guess I came within 10 points. Not bad if I say so myself. AJ; November 05, 2008 7:48 PM
Karen Anne said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; November 05, 2008 7:59 PM
Karen Anne said...: AJ, Hillary has been great.; November 05, 2008 8:02 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Karen Anne

yes she has and I'm so proud of her as a woman. AJ; November 05, 2008 8:41 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Now that I've had my sleeves rolled up for several months now, I'll really start nagging my reps. But in the meantime, I think I'll get some extra rest tonight.; November 05, 2008 8:53 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Everyone there is one thing that is heavy on my mind.

What is going to happen to this blog? Does anyone know? I would really hate it if I never heard from the good people on here. They have become lkie family if you know what I mean. AJ; November 05, 2008 8:56 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: AJ,

I'm sure we will have lots to talk about here for at least the next few months...

All the stuff that will be coming out about Palin.

All the talk about the inauguration.

All the speculation and announcements of Obama's cabinet.

Etc., etc., etc.

I won't be leaving this website for quite awhile.

And besides, before you know it it will be time for the 2012 primaries to start up ;); November 05, 2008 9:14 PM
Aunt Jean said...: There would be so many things that I would miss : like suzi's softness [not like that Dave]hahaha, Leah's faith,Karen Anne's fairness, Vicki's giving nature,Jean's sweetness,Appi's determined mind, Mike in Ga being a gentleman, Kujo's spunkiness, Robh's sense of right and wrong, last but not least my fav Dave [independent Voter] his funny and quirky mind. He has made me laugh the most. I love all you guys and I know that there are more people that post on here that I like so let me say to them you are great too!!! AJ; November 05, 2008 9:20 PM
Aunt Jean said...: I cannot forget Beryl her honesty.AJ; November 05, 2008 9:22 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah

thanks so much for that info! Load off my mind. There is something that I want to talk to you about though.

I know that you and I had a very rocky start. I owe you a big apology. I was very rude to you and that was uncalled for. You were so right about Obama and I'm so very glad.I'm so very sorry! AJ; November 05, 2008 9:25 PM
Kujo said...: Aunt Jean,

I will keep comming to the post for a while.

Too many people (in the country not on this blog) only care that their team wins. Game over, time to go to bed.

I have strong beliefs on what is needed in this country. I feel that Barak Obama represents the solution to many of these needs.

So I don't think it is over. I think it is important for people to continue to discuss the issues and how to solve these issues. Make sure the issues are being addressed.; November 05, 2008 9:31 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Kujo you are so right. Goodnight have a good one! AJ; November 05, 2008 9:37 PM
Kujo said...: Good night all.

God Bless America

Good Luck to Obama, we will be there for him.

P.S.

my word verification is "sucks"; November 05, 2008 9:49 PM
Independent Voter said...: Awe, thanks AJ. Back atcha! LOL - I just had to say it, just think of that as my best interpretation of Failin' Palin. LOL!

Ok, I know that people here in CA (me included) are pissed about Prop 8 passing. And I'm sure everyone remembers that I took a Women's Studies class over the summer. I saw the professor (Doreen) this morning before my sociology class and we talked quite a bit about Obama's election as well as Porp 8.

I told her about my plan to write some type of initiative to put on the ballot for 2010 to ban divorce. She helped me quite a bit with my disappointment. She also helped me realize that it doesn't do much good to be angry and want to get even so much as it would serve much better to strip rights that are related to marriage.

Now that is not to say get rid of the right marry (from anyone), but to remove the benefits such as automatic property rights, medical power of attorney, tax breaks, etc. This would mean that the state would no longer be in the marriage business. And if anyone wants to be recognized in a legal contract, that contract would be considered a civil union. This would mean following the Canadian model of "marriage". And any marriage (which it currently exists) that would be recognized by the state is Civil Marriage. So technically nothing would change except the name. Let the religious fundamentalists hold onto their title marriage, but the state should ONLY be recognizing Civil Marriage to begin with, the state recognized, legal binding contract that is equivalent to every citizen.; November 05, 2008 9:53 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave LMAO!!!!; November 05, 2008 9:56 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

I'm sure that your professor is right and it makes sense. I know you are disappointed but you know what things will change so give it time. We now have a AA for president [yeaaaaaaaaaaaa] so anything is possible!! AJ; November 05, 2008 10:01 PM
Beryl said...: Hee Hee @ AJ. I didn't want to be left out of those who you remembered on this blog.

This blog has been valuable for me as well. Most of you know that it was a very stressful campaign. We all had our personal reasons for how we responded. I enjoyed reading all of your comments figuring that like me, you needed to share and/or let off some steam every now and again.

I am finally exhaling again. I'm tired only because I've been watching the news all day and night but the stress has lifted.

The nice thing about this campaign is that we all needed to engage for success. Likewise, we all need to stay in engaged to get our country out of the ditch in which Bush put us. I have every confidence that WE can do it too.

We are a great big community that has been organized.; November 05, 2008 10:01 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Beryl

Of course I couldn't leave you out!!! I've been going thru so many so emotions the past year and dealing with the effects of Ike and other personal things that my life has been like a roller coaster. Now I'm back on solid ground. I'm looking forward to the next 4 years with hope!!AJ; November 05, 2008 10:06 PM
suzihussein22 said...: iv dave-It's a shame government even has to get involved with couples. It shouldn't be so easy to divorce. It's been almost 13 years for us. They haven't been perfect and anybody that thinks otherwise should have their rose colored glasses taken away from them.

aunt jean-Does that mean I'm still softspoken? :) Right back at ya.:); November 05, 2008 10:09 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Suzi both LOL LOL LOL! AJ; November 05, 2008 10:11 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Beryl excuse me 8 years!!! AJ; November 05, 2008 10:13 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: DemConWatch was set up as a site to track and analyze the events leading up to the Democratic National Convention. Primary among the events was the nominating process.

What changes do you want to see in that process?

Here's a couple of suggestions I have:

- Do NOT eliminate the choice a state has between a primary or caucus (see below for one critical reason). Each state has it's own needs and traditions, and should be able to choose which of the systems best meets it's needs and preferences. With that said, though, eliminate the Texas two-step.

- Set the primary calendar to begin on the first Tuesday of February, or (preferable to me) March. In a hat, select between Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. First one drawn would go first. One week later, the second would go. Then the third and fourth Tuesdays, the other two states would hold their primary or caucus. If state law says the primary is to be held on Saturday (in the case of South Carolina), accommodate the state by moving it three days earlier.

At the beginning of March (or April), the rest of the states could begin, with no more than X number on each date (I would prefer 5 at most), first come first served, but with preference first given to any state that has held a primary or caucus CONSISTENTLY on that date for several election cycles (Indiana comes to mind - primary date in Indiana has been the first Tuesday of May for decades).

Any state that violates the above would automatically have it's delegation reduced to 10% (not by, but TO, 10%) - NO ifs, ands or buts, except if the state legislature moves the primary date, the state party can schedule a caucus for delegate selection within the 'legal' time frame, thus not endanger most of its delegates.

Other thoughts? Comments? Differing views? (please be gentle - VBG)

Mike; November 05, 2008 10:13 PM
Independent Voter said...: Ok, so the Dems got control of the Senate by a pretty healthy margin, but did not get to the hoped for magic number of 60. I know that LIEberman is probably going to be stripped of his chairmanship. I truly hope that the Dems kick him to the curb. That would be the BEST news that I will have heard in a very long time.

LOL! Just watching the Shrub's concession speech.....er congratulatory speech to Obama. LOL.....you ALL know exactly what he's thinking as he was giving it....."I just can't believe HE, 'That One' got more votes and electoral votes than I ever got. I can't believe the American people hate me so much that they would vote a Black man in the White House.....it's called the WHITE House for a reason. What does this say about the American people's feelings toward me?" I mean you could really see it in his face and hear it in his voice that he just can't stand that "That One" won last night.

I truly hope that Obama literally gives his cousin a big swift kick when he takes his final steps out of the VP Mansion.; November 05, 2008 10:15 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in Maryland

I hate caucus I still believe that they are wrong. It's unfair to older folks. I know that there are people on here that will disagree with me. As far as the Texas 2 step that is about the dumbess thing I ever heard. They need to totally do away with it. The rest is fine. As far as if states moving up their primary and getting knocked down to 10% I don't think that is right. Look what haooened in Florida it was republins that did most of that so the democrat people should be punished for it no. There should be some other way to make sure that it doesn't happen again. AJ; November 05, 2008 10:25 PM
Beryl said...: Maybe I missed this discussion but...

What does that tell you about Alaska where Ted Stevens, a convicted felon, won the Senate seat?

I know there are some WONDERFUL people in AK and I honor them for being part of the 52% who helped make Obama's election a mandate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lffB7B8jKE

Still -- it amazes me that so many of the folks there voted to retain that criminal in office! I hoped they'd censor Palin after she abused her power and misused funds but I don't expect that now.

Oh well. I won't sweat that -- let's keep celebrating.; November 05, 2008 10:27 PM
Independent Voter said...: Mike-in-MD,

I personally do like extended primaries because it truly gives us, the voters, a chance to get to know the candidates, but the thought of an extended primary season SIX MONTHS long is absolutely excruciating. I say go ahead and let Iowa and New Hampshire hold theirs on the same day, but actual election day should be moved from Tuesday to WEEKENDS and make it a two day process, Saturday and Sunday but still offer early voting. It is too difficult for people to take off one day out of the week. We should have federally run elections, not state run, with international oversight. We demand other countries have international oversight, but don't allow it here, hmmmmmmmmm, I wonder why? (That is a rhetorical question).

Those are a few changes I would like to see. Oh and Mike, I totally agree with you about the TX two-step, but I kinda wish we had the caucus system here in CA. Why? Because of the grassroots campaigning and being able to get to know your neighbors. It sounds like a really fun and informative process.; November 05, 2008 10:28 PM
suzihussein22 said...: iv dave-How about how McCain's crowd booing? Is that a class act or what?(rhetorical)

Mike saw the photo of the 106 yr. old woman who voted for Obama. This is so historical for her. She doesn't look her age. She'll turn 107 just before Jan. 20. What if she could hold the Bible that's used to swear in Pres. Obama?; November 05, 2008 10:28 PM
Independent Voter said...: Honestly, I would like to see our entire electoral process turned inside out. For example, I would say, create larger congressional districts, and grant specific amount of proportional representation in Congress, to give third party candidates a chance to be represented in Congress.

AND ABOLISH THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE! Straight popular vote.; November 05, 2008 10:33 PM
Independent Voter said...: Soft, which time were you referring to (booing)? When he said Obama's name or Sarah Palin's name? Yes, they booed when he mentioned Sarah Palin......LOL.....that was another highlight :); November 05, 2008 10:35 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: AJ,

Regarding the point about Florida - that is EXACTLY why I think the caucus MUST remain. Have the primary on the date set by the state legislature, but it's only a beauty contest. With a caucus to fall back on, use it to make the actual selection of the delegates.

Another thing - a caucus does NOT mean doing it in the manner Iowa does. In Hawai'i, it would be difficult to tell the difference between their caucus and a primary, as they vote by private ballot. The main differences (and main drawbacks):

- In the caucus, the process is held over a shorter period of time, usually a couple of hours, not all day as in a primary;

- The state pays for a primary, but the party must fund the caucus.

Mike; November 05, 2008 10:35 PM
suzihussein22 said...: iv dave-I heard booing 3 times. The video was choppy online and I haven't tried to rewatch it yet.; November 05, 2008 10:37 PM
Independent Voter said...: And to give everyone and idea as to how overloaded I was in this, I came home from school (got home around 12:30) and took a nap.......a 6 hour nap. LOL; November 05, 2008 10:38 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

the only thing with getting rid of the electoral college would be the caucuses. How would you keep up with the popular vote? Which I do believe that they need to get rid of the electoral college. AJ; November 05, 2008 10:39 PM
Beryl said...: I still thank Hillary for spanking Obama during the Primaries. What doesn't kill you only make you stronger. If Hillary had not been hard on him, he may not have performed as well in the General Election. Hillary threw softballs in comparison to the granades McPalin threw at him!

Also, McPalin also helped Obama. It let the country see that he can take anything without losing his cool. I sincerely believe that Obama will bomb and kill Bin Ladin and any other adversary who doesn't cooperate or negotiate without blinking. He is no push over -- he is just cool.; November 05, 2008 10:40 PM
Independent Voter said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; November 05, 2008 10:40 PM
Independent Voter said...: Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden
Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden Obama Biden

O & JOE '08/'12; November 05, 2008 10:42 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike In Maryland
I just believe that is the worst thing that could happen.What about the people that can't or won't go to a caucus but votes in a primary. So we forget about them? I believe it's unamerican. AJ; November 05, 2008 10:42 PM
Independent Voter said...: I just heard KO refer to a poll taken about Republicans who want Palin to be the new "leader" of the party.......18%

ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!; November 05, 2008 10:43 PM
Independent Voter said...: AJ, I'm not quite sure what you mean the only thing with getting rid of the electoral college would be the caucuses. How would you keep up with the popular vote? Which I do believe that they need to get rid of the electoral college. AJ

Do you mean the superdelegates? Which should be greatly reduced in number if not eliminated altogether. But that is a party decision.

The electoral college only pertains to the general election. Whomever wins the popular vote in the general election should be declared the victor, no if's and's or but's. Had that been the case in 2000, we wouldn't have had the last eight years of disaster. The only problem with that is the candidates would pretty much ignore the small states. Perhaps some kind of weighting system that grants some kind of benefit to smaller states would need to be applied.; November 05, 2008 10:51 PM
Independent Voter said...: One thing I can honestly say is that I do NOT miss the campaign commercials. :)

We were infiltrated by the GOPTrustPAC's Reverend Wright commercials over the past 4 days. UGH!; November 05, 2008 10:55 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave SD's should be gotten rid of. But what I meant is that people said that all the votes didn't get counted [during the run off]because of the caucuses so if that is true how would they count the popular vote? AJ; November 05, 2008 10:56 PM
Independent Voter said...: AJ, the caucuses could start recording popular vote totals, it wouldn't be that difficult to do. Some states did count all their caucus popular vote totals, some didn't.

But what I was referring to as far as pop. vote total was regarding the general election. I probably should have written a separate post.; November 05, 2008 11:03 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

I must have missed something yes I agree about the popular vote in the general election. And No what happened in 2000 wouldn't have happened. Did I ever tell you that Gore's house in Tenn. was only about 10 minutes from where I lived. His Daddy was the type of person if you seen him on the road pull over as far as you could because he was blind as a bat and would run over you. Even though he was a nice man. LOL AJ; November 05, 2008 11:08 PM
Independent Voter said...: By the way, just to let everyone know, prop 8 is already being challenged because of a conflicting clause in our state constitution. An equality clause.

The petition charges that Proposition 8 is invalid because the initiative process was improperly used in an attempt to undo the constitution’s core commitment to equality for everyone by eliminating a fundamental right from just one group – lesbian and gay Californians.; November 05, 2008 11:10 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

one more thing I don't like the way the delegates or given out. I think it should be more divided out through out the state. AJ; November 05, 2008 11:11 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

maybe they will throw it out! AJ; November 05, 2008 11:13 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

I think the delegates should be based on popular vote in each state.AJ; November 05, 2008 11:15 PM
Independent Voter said...: AJ, Delegates the way it stands now are divided through the states. They are split up by congressional districts.; November 05, 2008 11:23 PM
Independent Voter said...: One thing I would have to say is that elected delegates (not superdelegates) should be bound to remain loyal to the votes that they were elected to represent.; November 05, 2008 11:24 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave yes I believe the same way. AJ; November 05, 2008 11:29 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; November 05, 2008 11:31 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave how do you think President Obama"s team at the white house going to look like? I just hope he gives Richardson a boot to the curb. I don't like that man and trust about as far as I could throw him.I'm telling you he is a back stabbing SOB. AJ; November 05, 2008 11:34 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

there is one thing about the SD's that I believe very strongly about. The age it should be grown men and women not kids I'm sorry. I think that they need to have an age limit to become one like at least 25 or 30 yrs old.I'm not saying that younger than that cannot make wise choises but they still haven't lived long enough to have the life experences. AJ; November 05, 2008 11:39 PM
Independent Voter said...: As far as Richardson, I know that you don't like him (or even strongly dislike him), but I think you are going to be disappointed...I think he will be given a cabinet post, but I think he won't be joining in Washington until 2010 when he is done being governor.

I do however believe he is going to have an extremely diverse group of advisors and other cabinet members. It appears as though he is seeking to post an unprecedented number of women to his cabinet. I honestly believe that an Obama administration is going to have one of the BEST representations of all walks of life.

Superdelegates - well if superdelegates were eliminated all together, then that would solve the problem :); November 05, 2008 11:55 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave

well all I can say about Richardson id Obama better watch him like a hawk. AJ; November 06, 2008 12:05 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave
getting rid of the SD's would solve quite a few of the problems. AJ; November 06, 2008 12:10 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; November 06, 2008 12:11 AM
Aunt Jean said...: I'm off to take a bubble bath and unwind for awhile. So later goodnight. AJ; November 06, 2008 12:18 AM
Independent Voter said...: AJ, I'm actually headed to bed again. LOL! I'm so frickin' exhausted. I am sooooooooooooo glad it's over. I really wish they would call North Carolina already.; November 06, 2008 12:26 AM
Karen Anne said...: I would like to see caucuses stay as well. They are a lot like New England town meetings. Make the ballots secret, that's fine with me.

And get rid of the Texas two-step, what's with that.

The other stuff, I'm too tired to think about tonight :-); November 06, 2008 1:20 AM
Karen Anne said...: kujo,

This from the Times:

"The election proved so invigorating to the American public that turnout climbed to its highest rate in 44 years. Although experts differed in their projections as provisional and absentee ballots are counted, Michael McDonald, a voting expert at George Mason University, estimated that 133.3 million people had voted, eclipsing the 123 million who participated four years ago. That amounted to 62.6 percent of all eligible voters, just shy of the 62.8 percent in 1964."; November 06, 2008 2:05 AM
Karen Anne said...: This is amazing. I think someone mentioned it previously. Ben Affleck is unbelievably good:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs0jf0UWclk; November 06, 2008 7:49 AM
RobH said...: Karen Anne, Kujo, Mike,

KA, so the times quoted George Mason University saying turnout was 133M. Yesterday Marc Armbinder (The Atlantic) also blogged turnout was 133M. But as of 11AM this morning total votes on CNN is 120.7M.

And so far:
25 states have reported 100%
15 states have reported 99%
6 states have reported 98%
2 states have reported 92/93%

Only WA and OR have significant outstanding precincts as of now (67 and 74% reported to date.) Proportional math on a state by state basis says there are 2.6M votes to be tabulated when every state gets to 100%. Thus, total pop vote recorded will be 123M.

Mike suggested yesterday that the difference could be absentee or provisional ballots that may not be counted if the outcome would not be affected.

I submit the following proposition:

If there are 10M absentee or provisional ballots out there, (133 claimed turnout vs 123 tabulated) then that is plenty enough to effect a boatload of individual state races. Any reasonable assumption of proportioning across the states suggests any state race within 8 pts could have been swung (10M absentee over 133M total.)

Since even states within a point have long been called (MO, IN) I think we have to reject the idea. (Hell if I were McCain, I wouldn't have given up on those states if 8% of the vote was still outstanding.)

So I'm still confused and still need to be talked down. Is anybody else mystified that historic turnout has been proclaimed, and specified as 133M, but only 123M will be recorded? Anybody?

PS: word verif is 'nurosys'. LOL how appropriate!!!!; November 06, 2008 11:58 AM
Mike-in-GA said...: Well NBC just called North Carolina for Barack. The only results still pending are the 3 senatorial races (AK, MN, GA). I'm hoping that Georgia will be a runoff so we have one more chance to get rid of Chambliss. I'm also curious about AK. I don't think the senate will allow Stevens to be seated due to his felony conviction. As I understand the AK law - a new election would have to be called. It doesn't look like Palin will be able to appoint. At least that is the latest that is being discussed by the scholars. Unless there are some provisional ballots in MN or the recount shifts 477 votes - it will likely go to Coleman and the Republicans.; November 06, 2008 12:39 PM
Kujo said...: I saw after my post the number of states not reporting 100% was higher then I initially thought. I was pulling for 70% turnout, but this is good too.

As for the comparison to 1964, when they say eligable voters do they mean registered voters? Just like in this election, we are talking registered voters correct.

Half of me likes the idea of larger turnout, its exciting to see. But the other half wonders why are some of these people allowed to vote at all.

I was watching Larry King I think (for lack of anything else on at the time) and the question was raised about the "Dems vote on the 5th Repubs vote on the 4th...". The Dem strategist was of course quite upset about this and the Repub strategist made the comment that if someone is stupid enough to believe this they don't deserver to vote. I couldn't help thinking at the time... If someone things Palin is qualified they don't deserve to vote. If someone believes in 90% of the crap that was coming out of McCains mouth, they don't deserver to vote. If someone ever voted for Bachman in their life, they should never be allowed to vote.... And, of course, if you actually voted for GWB twice......

Oh well; November 06, 2008 12:55 PM
jean said...: Emanuel is Chief of Staff for Obama.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/06/breaking-emanuel-to-be-chief-of-staff/; November 06, 2008 1:00 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Kujo - that arrow went right through my heart:) I voted for GWB twice and Republican 30+ years but I changed. I'm sure there are many others out there that feel the same as me. It is not good to lump all "former" Republicans in with the bad guys. There are many of us that really care about this country and they are not all bad. The Republican Party has become disfunctional and I have encouraged many of my fellow Republicans to change thier allegiance and they have done just that.; November 06, 2008 1:04 PM
Independent Voter said...: LOL! Mike, I agree with you. To me it doesn't matter if anyone voted for Dubya twice, at least many of you woke up from the drunken feeling that he has left us all feeling.

The hangover healing has begun, and come January 20th, it will almost be gone. It will continue to take some time to get over it fully because the damage to our psyche has been done but at the same time we can see the light at the end of the tunnel.; November 06, 2008 1:13 PM
jean said...: OHHHHHHHHHHH MANNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!

Wouldn't you LOVE to be the fly on the wall.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/06/lieberman-meeting-with-reid-this-afternoon/

Lieberman is meeting Reid this afternoon.

jean; November 06, 2008 1:17 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Dave - I have been reading the blogs alot since that is about all that is left of "politics" right now and it makes me sick to see this continual bickering going on. It goes against what Barack wants us all to do and I hope that EVERYONE will wake up and support him because it is going to be a long hard path ahead and all of us need to get off of our partisan ideaology. Mine has changed significantly since I met all of you here on DCW over the past year. If I can change - so can others. There is enough fault on both sides that could be cleaned up if we all learn to work together.; November 06, 2008 1:26 PM
Karen Anne said...: What's with the word verification stuff - what are you verifying and with what? I missed this... Thanks :-); November 06, 2008 1:39 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Dave - It is going to be interesting to see how the Proposition 8 issue plays out. There are already 3 lawsuits that have been filed in the last two days. In the end I believe that it will be resolved in a positive manner, however, it is going to take more time, unfortunately. Keep your chin up and stay positive if you can - you will win more support if you do. Afterall, it was you who turned me around and helped me to understand that we all have the right to love in our own ways. Although our lifestyles are different in many ways - you have converted me into an advocate. I now speak out and tell people how wrong thier bigotry is and that it is time for change. I get some strange body language and uncomfortable discussion from them - but I really want to see EVERYONE get fair and equal treatment.; November 06, 2008 1:40 PM
jean said...: mike-in-ga,
Would you trust Lieberman?
In a Cabinet position or Committee?

I would not. OF course you have to work together. I do not feel the man is trustworthy.
I would trust McCain a 1000% more and he would get it done.

jean; November 06, 2008 1:40 PM
Independent Voter said...: Robh, I'm not sure where the 10m would come from, but NOTHING can deny that the first viable Black candidate has received MORE votes than ANY other candidate, regardless of race, in American history! And to think, that same candidate got MORE white voters than ANY Democrat since Carter:

2008
PRESIDENT OBAMA: 44%
Loser McShrub: 55%

2004
Kerry: 41%
Shrub: 58%

2000
Gore: 42%
Shrub: 54%

1992
Clinton: 39%
Shrub I: 40%

1996
Clinton: 43%
Dole: 46%

1988
Dukakis: 40%
Shrub I: 60%

1984
Mondale: 34%
Reagan: 66%

1980
Carter: 36%
Reagan: 56%

1976
Carter: 48%
Ford: 52%; November 06, 2008 1:42 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Jean - I too have doubts. Lieberman has always been a relatively conservative democrat - but I do think his public positions have gone over the line. He had the right to support John McCain but he also said he would not attack Barack publicly which he did not live up to during the campaign. I have mixed feelings about him in congress also because in many areas he supports democratic positions but he has gone against his own caucus. That having been said - we did not get the 60 votes we need yet to stop the nonsense filibusters so they may want to think hard before they through him out of the democrat caucus. It will be interesting to see if he loses his chairmanship. If the last 3 senate seats were to somehow go democratic - I think the partisan democrats would throw him to the wolfs in a minute. I would encourage them to let it play out until they see what happens.; November 06, 2008 1:48 PM
jean said...: mike-in-ga,
I personally do not think the Senate count matters.
Lieberman is a changed man and I do not think he will help.
When someone so openly LIES and does whatever he wants, well, he is wasted time.
Trust is a hard thing to earn and he openly threw it away with vigor.
I really hopes he goes.

jean; November 06, 2008 1:52 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Jean - I will be really interested to see how McCain reacts. Will he return to the McCain of 2000 now that the election is over and he does not need to cowtail to the Republican Party's religious right? We could be pleasantly surprised since he burnt so many bridges within his own party. It sure would be ironic.; November 06, 2008 1:52 PM
RobH said...: Karen Anne,

When I post a comment, the SW requies not only that I submit my poster name, and password, but also that I type a string of letters into a provided box, as they appear on the screed. The letters are either curvilinear and scrunched together (o0n mine) or somehow camoflaged or disguised with cross hatchings (as I've seen on others.) The purpose of disguising is so that they can not be read by a machine, or 'bot, and by requiring the be tped in makes it so that comments can't be posted by an automaton.

They are always random jumblings of letters, but sometimes they phonetically spell some interesting things.

This one is 'larspla', but the last one was definitely 'neurosis' by a different name.; November 06, 2008 1:54 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Jean - he is speaking on MSNBC now.; November 06, 2008 1:55 PM
Independent Voter said...: Mike-in-GA,

I totally agree with you that there is enough blame to go around on both sides. I truly hope that everyone will get behind him and support him, at least in the beginning. This is not to mean not to challenge him when he is screwing up, because we all know he will. He isn't perfect, close by not perfect...LOL (JUST KIDDING!)

As far as Prop 8, thank you for your support. And yes, as I stated the other night as angry as I was about it I was ready to go about forcing an amendment to ban divorce. That was until I was talked down by my former Women's Studies professor. So instead of "getting even", I decided to simply "get mad", and use that anger in positive way - to further equality, NOT take away other's rights. I think the gay community here in California has gotten too complacent and didn't fight the smears hard enough. Granted the No on 8 campaign was out-funded by a 3 to 1 margin, primarily by the Mormon church (of all religions to get involved in state 'marriage' issues) decided to infiltrate our state from Utah. They literally pumped nearly $60 million into the state to pass prop 8, versus our $24 million. If they could only get 52% of the vote by spending 3 to 1, that's a pretty bad return on investment if you ask me. But they succeeded nonetheless in writing discrimination into our Constitution.

But as you noted 3 challenges have been filed (with the state Supreme Court) which will more than likely overturn the initiative because of the Constitutional promise of equality. The initiative is in direct conflict with this promise.

Again, thank you for your support, it truly means a lot to me. And no, I do not, at this time, intend to start the initiative process to ban divorce. I will be volunteering (as part of my internship) with the Human Rights Campaign next semester to do further research on getting full equality within our state, and hopefully expand that equality into other states.; November 06, 2008 1:58 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Dave - great - go for it. This is the guy I have come to know online that made me change my mind about the gay movement because I saw a rationale guy who made sense to me. Hell we all get mad at times - but like I said - you convinced me by being level headed - now continue to do that with others and I dare say it will go your way. You have my commitment to continue to support your cause and also to speak up against the bigots.; November 06, 2008 2:05 PM
jean said...: Indy,
Call me totally ignornant.
Is there a Human Rights Campaign office in North County?
I have some free time and both teenagers need to do some community service in reference for college.
The daughter especially is strong in her feelings for No on Prop 8.
It would really help her to focus.

jean; November 06, 2008 2:06 PM
RobH said...: I read the Repubs were courting Lieberman to join their caucus before the election. Being they have now lost seats, it will be even more worth their while to have him, they'll probably dangle something in front of him, give him something to come over.

Meanwhile Dems have had it with him, he is persona non grata. Don't be surprised if they punish him by stripping his chairmanship, and he reacts by saying "see ya."

I say good riddance, and agree that 60 isn't really a magic number as it's a rare piece of legislation that is voted EXACTLY on party lines. We'll be at 57 - 60 anyway depending on how AK, MN, and GA resolve. So we shouldn't let the door hit him in the butt on his way out.; November 06, 2008 2:10 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Dave - I just read Jean's post - you are building your team right here on DCW. That's why I'm glad this site is going to continue. It gives us a forum to discuss things from different perspectives and LEARN. That is the greatest thing this site has done for me. I can see both sides of an issue and change as needed to make things right.; November 06, 2008 2:11 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Rog H,

Here are a couple of examples of why the final count as given right now could be waaaaay off:

Posting at Pollster.com:

There were 224057 votes counted in Alaska with 55663 absentees not yet counted...plus about 5600 "questioned" ballots (mainly from strongly Democratic areas ~amazing that there were ZERO challenged ballots from Mat-Su). That's about 20% of the total potential votes.

From the Baltimore Sun (http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/politics/bal-te.first06nov06,0,5210999.story):

[Maryland] 1st [Congressional] District race may take week to settle
At least 25,000 absentee ballots still to be counted in dead-heat House battle between Harris, Kratovil

Currently Kratovil has a 915 vote lead over Harris (160,915 to 160,900) out of 329,000 votes cast. And later in the article, it states the actual number of absentee ballots is 25,539 with "An unknown number of provisional ballots are to be counted beginning next week."

Since Maryland's reported total for Obama was 1,409,150 to McLameBrain's 873,320, even 300,000 votes not counted because they were absentee, challenged or provisional wouldn't make a difference, and thus wouldn't need to be counted. The Presidential counts WILL change, though, because of the uncounted ballots in MD's 1st Congressional District, not because they will be counted to affect the Presidential count, but to determine the winner of the Congressional race.

Many absentee, challenged, and provisional ballots won't be counted in Maryland or other states unless necessary. There could be a couple of dozen, or even a couple of hundred, such ballots per precinct in many states, but if all the races have been decided by more votes than uncounted absentee, challenged and/or provisional ballots, there is no need to count those ballots, and thus they won't show in any 'total ballots cast' totals, even though the ballots was cast.

Also consider - some people won't vote in a specific race. They leave it blank. It's unusual for them to do so at the top of the ticket, but it happens.

Or even worse, because of the way the voting law is set up, their intended vote may not count. An example - in North Carolina, if you vote a straight party ticket, the votes for all the races EXCEPT for President are counted. The voter has to specifically vote in the Presidential race for it to count. Many people who had voted for years did not know that was how it was set up. With all the new voters in NC this year, how many knew a straight party ticket vote did not mean a vote for the Presidential candidate? If they marked a straight party ticket for the Democrats, intending to vote for Obama, but didn't specifically vote for him, their votes for all but Obama would have been counted.

One final thing to consider:
The vote counts being reported are not the official state counts. Most states certify the race one week to three weeks after election day. What's being reported now is most likely the AP vote count (CNN for example), where the AP has reporters get the unofficial count at the precinct, city or county level and add them up for the entire state. Or they get the total from the state site, but it is still unofficial until it is certified by the SOS, Board of Elections, or other certifying body, and that will occur later in November.

Mike; November 06, 2008 2:18 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Cute poem left by someone at Pollster.com:

PLEDGE OF UNITY

The election is over,

The results are known.

The will of the people

Has clearly been shown.

Let's forget the quarrels

And show by our deeds.

We will give our leader

All the help that he needs.

So let's all get together

And let bitterness pass,

I'll hug your elephant

And you kiss my ass

Mike; November 06, 2008 2:19 PM
RobH said...: My understanding of the Alaska Senate situation is this:

If he resigns (not likely), the sitting Governor (yes...that one) gets to appoint a replacement. She is NOT permitted to appoint herself, but there is no prohibition for her to step down and have her Lt. Gov (the new Gov)appoint her. In fact there is historic precedent for just that, some guy from CT, I think, in the 30's.

If he refuses to resign (almost certain) Ried has said the Senate will move for expulsion. The outcome will be quite certain, as Repubs will go along because they can't be seen defending a criminal on their team. Under those circumstances, a special election will be called to elect a replacement, with likely candidates of Begich (D), and Palin (R). Don't be surprised to see Alaskans elect Palin killing two birds with one stone. It effectively: a) sends her out of the state as much as possible, and b)perpetuates the Stephens pork trough feeding model that has servede them so well. She's a natch' at it.; November 06, 2008 2:20 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: RobH - good discussion - the only question that I have is her appointment authority. If he resigns his current term - does she have authority to only replace him until his term expires on 3 Jan 09? Or, will her appointment extend until 2010 for the next regularly scheduled election? I agree with you on the special election requirement if Stevens is expelled.; November 06, 2008 2:27 PM
Independent Voter said...: Jean - I don't believe that there is an HRC location in North County, but I do know that there is an LGBT center. I will look into HRC and get back to you.

Mike, I agree, I am very glad that this site is going to remain. I keep check the pop vote totals and Obama just keeps expanding his lead....I LOVE IT!!!!!!; November 06, 2008 2:29 PM
Joshua said...: There is a tall 20-foot flag pole in the middle of my front lawn. 4 years ago when Bush was returned to the Whitehouse I took down Old Glory, folded it up and put it on the shelf. Yesterday I retrieved it and mounted it back on the pole and I replaced the burned out torchlight bulb that keeps it lit all night. The last thing I did last night before going to bed was to verify that Old Glory was properly lit up. The first thing I did this morning was to make sure that my Flag was still there.

It is a new day in America. Hallelujah.; November 06, 2008 2:30 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: BREAKING NEWS!!!! The real Republican attack dog is Barney - the first dog:); November 06, 2008 2:30 PM
jean said...: robh,
Yes, I read this and understood this to be the case also.
I truly chose not to think about it because it makes me sick to my stomach.
I think this is the only way that she will survive this election, because in four years if she runs for office, history will doom her.
The positive thought is that if Obama has a lot of extra funds, he can give it to the Democratic Party in Alaska.
Now there is a thought:)

jean; November 06, 2008 2:32 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Alaska law was changed so the governor CANNOT appoint a Senator.

The change came about when Murkowski won the governorship, resigned his Senate seat, then appointed his daughter to fill the seat. Because of the nepotism, Alaskans changed the law so that an election has to be held, and no one can be appointed by anyone to even temporarily fill the Senate seat.

Mike; November 06, 2008 2:34 PM
RobH said...: Mike in md,

Thanks, you're talking me down, just like I asked. And I DO want to be talked down. I am in no way interested in dampening the magnitude of this moment, this victory. It will not be minimized. I am just wanting to find an explanation to a mystery. Thanks.

Was one of your suppositions that maybe 133M voters "turned out", but of those, some number did not vote for President, so won't be in the final vote totals? While obviously logical, I can't believe that can explain any significant portion of the gap. What percent of voters go to the polls, and only vote locally? Up to 8% ??

The anecdotes you passed along, ultimately are of insignificant size to explain the gap......as it exists today. I have no doubt that voter totals will increase - even within the 99%ers, as states tabulate absentees, etc. Just don't know how big that will eventually be.

More states have reported 100%, we're now up to 44 states at 99% and above, 48 at 97% and above. These numbers continue to converge on about 123M.; November 06, 2008 2:36 PM
jean said...: mike in maryland,
So funds from the Democratic Party CAN truly help and I feel should be a focus.
The 50 state strategy is still in play.

jean; November 06, 2008 2:38 PM
Mike-in-GA said...: Mike-in-MD -- take a look at this link reference the law. Unfortunately it is not entirely clear on what will happen. Here is the link: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/5/161042/942

It will be interesting!; November 06, 2008 2:44 PM

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