Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

We have decided to stop allowing anonymous comments. Not because we don't like reading what people have to say but because Blogger has introduced a new "feature" that makes you go to a second page when the number of comments go over 200.

It's very easy to set up a Google account so that you can continue commenting.

And please be excellent to one another. We do not accept name calling or any attacks on our commenters. Any objectionable comments will be deleted. Try to be civil.

Thanks!

Previous Open Thread here
New Open Thread here

4317 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 2201 – 2400 of 4317 Newer› Newest»

Leah Texas4Obama said...: May 26, 2008

Protest planned before hearing in Florida lawsuit
Posted: 06:10 PM ET

From CNN Associate Producer Martina Stewart

(CNN) – Victor DiMaio, the plaintiff in a refiled lawsuit aimed at forcing the DNC to seat Florida’s delegates to the Democratic convention, has announced that a protest will be held in Tampa, Florida on the eve of the hearing in his case.

The “lawsuit was filed long before the first vote was ever cast or counted,” DiMaio said in a statement released Monday. “How do you ignore the fourth largest state in the nation and millions of Florida voters who exercised their right to vote?,” he added.

The dismissal of Dimaio’s original suit was upheld by a federal appeals court in March but the court stated that the suit could be refiled if the defects it had identified were fixed.

In early April, DiMaio refiled in Tampa federal trial court. The new suit alleges that the DNC discriminated on the basis of race and national origin in violation of federal law. In particular, DiMaio contends that the DNC allowed Nevada and South Carolina to hold their presidential primaries prior to February 5 because of significant minority populations in both states.

A hearing is set for Wednesday in DiMaio’s case. In papers filed with the Tampa federal trial court in preparation for the hearing, the DNC countered that its rule on scheduling primaries does not amount to discrimination on the basis of race or national origin and does not discriminate against any individual voter or against the voters as a whole in any state.

The DNC also said that national political parties have a constitutional right under the First Amendment to determine how delegates are selected to their nominating conventions.

DiMaio’s suit is the third filed against the DNC over its decision to strip Florida of its convention delegates. U.S. Senator Bill Nelson and Rep. Alcee Hastings, both Democrats from Florida, filed a lawsuit that was dismissed in late 2007 and a Florida Democratic state senator filed a suit last week.

The Rules and Bylaws Committee of the DNC is scheduled to meet May 31 in Washington, D.C. to hear appeals by Florida and Michigan, which was also stripped of its seats at the Democratic convention for holding its primary in violation of the DNC’s rule.

----; May 26, 2008 8:42 PM
Meg said...: According to the CSPAN website, it will be covering the RBC meeting live starting at 9:30 am ET. on Saturday.; May 26, 2008 8:48 PM
suzihussein22 said...: emma-speaking of uncommitted SDs/weenies :)...my husband and/or I will have a good chance of seeing Gov. Bredeson this week. We hope to make a discreet, respectful inquiry.; May 26, 2008 8:52 PM
suzihussein22 said...: interesting trivia-

http://tinyurl.com/5bfk9s; May 26, 2008 8:56 PM
Meg said...: Softspoken:

For Heaven's sake don't tell him I called him a weenie!!

There are so many variables in the possible outcomes in all of this that I have a feeling HRC will figure out some way to take the fight to Denver.

I'm a fairly optimistic person, but I see in her a need to win which is greater than the need to heal the party. When 2 candidates have a lot in common re: the issues, you must look at character and judgment. I think Obama has taken the high road so many times over the months and she has not.; May 26, 2008 9:24 PM
Independent Voter said...: ss - I could be really really mean to a certain candidate but I will refrain from doing so.... :) (regarding the link you posted).; May 26, 2008 9:27 PM
suzihussein22 said...: emma-Does that mean I could blackmail you not to say it? LOL :D I'll try not to let it slip.;); May 26, 2008 9:28 PM
Independent Voter said...: emma - I'm a fairly optimistic person, but I see in her a need to win which is greater than the need to heal the party. When 2 candidates have a lot in common re: the issues, you must look at character and judgment. I think Obama has taken the high road so many times over the months and she has not.

---------

I'm right there with ya.

Actually she has gone lower than "the low road" she literally got down in the sewer.; May 26, 2008 9:29 PM
suzihussein22 said...: independent voter- I'm sure you could.:D lol; May 26, 2008 9:30 PM
Meg said...: Soft:

Perhaps you could just politely ask him what he's waiting for. Clinton won Tennessee, but not by a landslide. I'm also curious about whether SD's talk to each other. Do they have massive conference calls and plot their strategy?; May 26, 2008 9:33 PM
suzihussein22 said...: emma-HRC won more districts, but not an overwhelming majority of votes. I think there would have been less of a difference if Thompson had still been in.; May 26, 2008 9:53 PM
Yamaka said...: von:

"I've lost count Yam, this big win in Puerto Rico you're predicting, will this be the 7th or the 8th "game changer" for hillary"

You may call it the "nth changer". It doesn't matter: Her opponents and the vast Liberal MSM have been disregarding her from IA, NH, Super Tuesday, Mar, Apr, May. All along she has been defying the predictions of the "bald pundits".

Please go to line 5, 6 of realclearpolitics.com. HRC has most of the polled Popular Votes. She leads by 55K (line 6) and she will be adding more from PR.

By June 4th, we will know that she has at least 150K popular vote lead.

That's enough for her to go all the way to the Convention and fight for the Nomination. Her Math as per the Last Left Box:

1972 + 240 = 2212. The Real Hurdle is 2209. She can get 240 out of the 317 TDs outstanding. Yes, She can...

She is the most qualified person to move into the WH, IMO.

BHO is very risky: Nearly 30 millions of non-participants of the Primary don't know him that well. He is least experienced and least vetted by the MSM. When the rigor starts he will wilt and wither away in the vine, IMO.

Stay tuned. Big Shocker is yet to come!

:-); May 26, 2008 10:16 PM
greywolf said...: I spent the afternoon and up until now reading the huffington post and other news sources. I must say after reading all that I did, I could let that Army Drill Instructor tongue and voice of mine go and give a particular campagin camp one heck of a verbal lashing. I have never see, read or heard so much pathetic bs in all my life. This years politics have sunk to the lowest level in my 57 years.; May 26, 2008 10:27 PM
greywolf said...: hi everyone I am back for a while tonight.. Was hoping to see a few supers come out later this afternoon but we will have to wait
I guess; May 26, 2008 10:28 PM
Meg said...: Good night all. Hey yam, it's ON the vine, not IN the vine, and I think rigor starts when you're dead. Sorry. I'm an English teacher.; May 26, 2008 10:31 PM
greywolf said...: gezz is yammer at it still..He is persistant I must admit. But i guess he has a right to do what he does this is america.; May 26, 2008 10:32 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yakama said: "Stay tuned. Big Shocker is yet to come!"
_________________

I do believe you have eluding to a 'big shocker' for a long time now.

I do think that a 'big shocker' might be on its way but it will just be another flub by Hillary.

If the Clinton Machine had anything on Senator Obama they would have used it long ago.

If you don't have a concrete fact to back up your insinuations then please cease and desist with your nonexistent smear.

OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA '08; May 26, 2008 10:45 PM
suzihussein22 said...: good night y'all; May 26, 2008 10:55 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

My two cents of non-lawyerly view of what would happen at the RBC Meeting:

1. Various arguments will be presented all day. There will not be enough time for the Members to analyze the validity of the arguments and counter arguments.

2. They will reconvene the next day or set another day for the verdict.

3. The Committee will be torn between BHO and HRC supporters. They will be deadlocked.

4. Finally the verdict will come. Parties will not be satisfied and the matter will be appealed to the Credential Committee at the Convention.

5. Unless the Candidates themselves sit together and compromise, the whole matter will be taken up at the Convention, and Denver will be a War Zone.

6. Finally, because of the crazy arcane Rules and the incompetents of the DNC, John and Cindy McCain will go to the Inaugural Ball!

All this can be avoided, if the win-at-any cost mentality of BHO changes and he cooperates with HRC for a serious nice talk with a smile on his face. After all, he is a Kid with no real experience in National Politics!

Stay tuned. All the Day Dreamers will be truly crushed!!

:-); May 26, 2008 11:11 PM
Maxwell said...: I have been reading since Open Thread number five. I just had one question for Yakama.

When you are talking about the minority candidate, how come you never mention the only candidate left standing with few popular votes than Clinton and Obama? That'd be John McCain.

Not that I think popular vote matters at all, but if Obama is pulling more votes than McCain, that makes him a majority candidate, right?

Maxwell.; May 26, 2008 11:18 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: I've been thinking. There might be another reason for the Yammerer to keep posting here at DemConWatch (besides him infecting other sites as I discussed earlier):

The DemConWatch site has gained a tremendous amount of 'cred' for being THE site for tracking Democratic Party superdelegate endorsements. The link to DemConWatch is spread far and wide now. Anyone who clicks the link to DemConWatch can access the Open Thread just by clicking the link in the left-hand column.

If someone who currently is supporting Senator Clinton clicks that link and starts reading the messages, they'll find out how bizarre and non-reality based one or two of her supporters are This might cause them to rethink their allegiance to Senator Clinton if she attracts such supporters. It certainly shouldn't reinforce their support (unless they are also just as delusional in their rational thinking, of course).

Therefore I think it is our duty to suffer from the Yammerer's Yammerings so that it is demonstrated to the rest of the world just how out of touch with reality Senator Clinton's supporters are, and by extension, they might be led to think that the candidate such Yammerers support just might have a similar warped sense of reality herself (something most of us already recognize, though).

Think of the suffering as just a temporary thing that will sooner or later pay dividends to, and is for the greater good of, the Democratic party, the US, and the world.

Mike; May 26, 2008 11:24 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Greywolf go to this site because you are wrong about obama beating Hillary in florida .There is says obama loses florida to McCain . But hillary wins florida over McCain. Jean PS. a lot better site than last time.:

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/florida.html; May 26, 2008 11:34 PM
uniongal said...: Although the Clintons continue to distort their record on Michigan and Florida, the public record of their initial recognition that the primary in those states wouldn't count and that they agreed not to participate is clear.

Here's the Pledge Hillary Clinton signed on August 31, 2007:

Four State Pledge Letter 2008

Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
August 31, 2007

WHEREAS, Over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a 2008 nominating calendar;

WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic diversity of our party and our country;

WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the nominating process, to insure that money alone will not determine our presidential nominee;

WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar.

THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC. [Emphasis added].

Then in October she stated regarding Michigan: "It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything," Clinton said Thursday during an interview on New Hampshire Public Radio's call-in program, "The Exchange."

Washington post October 11, 2007.

Too bad the Main Stream Media can't or won't check their own sources to report the hypocrisy of her, and her supporters, current position.; May 26, 2008 11:37 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Greywolf michigan they have McCain winning 45 to Obama's 44. Hillary 44 to McCain 44. same link just click on what state. Michigan only have to 5/12. but flo. had 5/21 I believe.Jean; May 26, 2008 11:38 PM
Aunt Jean said...: uniongal once again it was not the VOTERS FAULT. Do you not get that!!!!!! Please don't hand me that BS that they put the people in there that did it. It doesn't wash with me. Jean; May 26, 2008 11:42 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in Maryland they could also read the BS that some of Obama supporters come up with too. Besides the mean hateful ugly words. Jean; May 26, 2008 11:44 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: uniongal -

Here ya go:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=KmUVr_Qt2Wg

Great video about Hillary and Michigan and Florida!

OBAMA '08; May 26, 2008 11:45 PM
Independent Voter said...: aunt jean,

Terry MacAullife helped write the rules and Harold Ickes VOTED (which Ickes is on the RBC) to strip BOTH of those states of their delegates. Clinton admitted that they were "beauty contests". But when she realized she was SCREWED she decided that hey, I better start fighting for these delegations to be seated. Beyond that SHE ACCEPTED the rules as they were. If she was not happy about when entering the contest she should have challenged them at the time. She didn't, therefore she is a hypocrite and a FRAUD!; May 26, 2008 11:48 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in maryland Hillary had 2 count 2 fundraisers in Florida unlike Obama she asked the dnc if it would violate the rules and they said no. Now Obama had an ad going on tv for people to see now who do you think got more benfit out of it? { I'll answer that OBAMA] So please don't try and white wash that it's wrong! Jean; May 26, 2008 11:49 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah texas [not] 4 Obama the only word really that she shouldn't have said is sniper fire. But because of the bashing of anything she says maybe assassination.

Now for Obama if you think that the only word he souldn't have said is bitter well you are delirious! Jean; May 26, 2008 11:52 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave she has said all along that it was wrong. Jean; May 26, 2008 11:53 PM
Yamaka said...: "Not that I think popular vote matters at all, but if Obama is pulling more votes than McCain, that makes him a majority candidate, right?"

maxwell: Thanks for the question.

I feel very strongly about the Popular Vote, from which all metrics and calculations start.

Just to remind you, McCain has already wrapped up the Nomination, following the General Election Methodology. Had we also used it, Hillary would have already clinched the Democratic Nomination.

It is the crazy useless Rules that have complicated the Process and we are at the verge of losing the GE.

Of course, if McCain is seeking the Nomination of the Democratic Party, his Popular Votes would be of serious discussion! But, he is not.

SDs: Nominate the Majority Candidate and NOT the Minority.
________________________________

RodentinMD:

Your nonsense has no limits.

You are pushing your Minority Candidate onto our throats.

No matter what, we will Stop BHO at all costs.

Tell me Rodent, why don't you use his middle name or the full legal name, Barack Hussein Obama Jr?

What are you afraid of?

The total truth?

You want your Minority Candidate win at any and all costs, hiding basic historical facts?

No, We Will Not Allow it.

:-( :-(; May 26, 2008 11:57 PM
Independent Voter said...: aunt jean - THAT IS FALSE AND YOU KNOW IT!!!!!!!!

October 11, 2007 NPR interview:

"It's clear, this election they're having is not going to count for anything," Clinton said Thursday during an interview on New Hampshire Public Radio's call-in program, "The Exchange."; May 26, 2008 11:59 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Nat'l RCP Average
05/08 - 05/25

Obama 51.2
Clinton 41.0

Obama +10.2

-------

Total delegates needed to secure the Democratic nomination:

OBAMA 49
Clinton 246 (TONS!)

.; May 27, 2008 12:00 AM
Kujo said...: Leah

I was watching CNN last night and it did a thing on Clinton refering to R. Kennedy. In it it said only 16 states held primaries ( I believe this is the correct number) at that time, many states had its elite just choose delegates.

More proof that the party can do what they want.; May 27, 2008 12:01 AM
Hippolytus said...: Yammer,
Just curious -- do you use checkers rules when playing chess?
By the way, when are we going to see the Obama lead in total delegates cut to below 100? Oh, that's right, it's heading the other way.; May 27, 2008 12:07 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Kujo-

Yep. Parties can set their own rules and do what the want. They are private organizations.

Just look at the Libertarian party - they just picked Bob Barr to be their nominee and they did not have a long drawn out election process with primaries in every state. And only ONE question and answer session on C-Span - not 20+ debates.

The Democratic Party is a PRIVATE organization and can set their own RULES - it is not like during the General Election when people are voting to SEAT an elected official.

Many people on this thread need to do some research and learn how 'parties' work and how this election process works.

OBAMA '08 ;); May 27, 2008 12:10 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: I said: "Many people on this thread need to do some research and learn how 'parties' work and how this election process works."
------

I meant to say NOMINATION process not election process.

Right now what is happening is a NOMINATION process not 'election'.

.; May 27, 2008 12:14 AM
Yamaka said...: hippo:

Let me remind you no one has clinched the Nomination.

There are 317 TDs outstanding. They will call the winner.

My guess is at least 240 of them will support Hillary some time in June.

This means

1972 + 240 = 2212 TDs (as per Last left box of DCW).

The Real Hurdle will be closer to 2209 after the RBC Meeting.

Yes, I agree the TD number will be key for the Nomination.

But you cannot just ignore the Popular Votes, from which all metrics start. Many SDs would like to know who is leading in PV.

As of today, Hillary is leading in PV as per line 5,6 of RealClearPolitics. com

:-(; May 27, 2008 12:15 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Greywolf they have this at real clear politics poll:

Obama:1 loss
2 ties against McCain
4 wins

Hillary: 5 wins
1 tie against McCain
1 loss

Now who's record is better? Jean; May 27, 2008 12:17 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Hippolytus -

Hillary has been playing a game of 'checkers' jumping around to get to the other side of the board as quickly as possible to be 'crowned' - while all long Obama has been playing an intense slow game of chess - each of his moves have been well thought out and strategic.

Just like in the old story of the fast moving Hare and the slow moving Tortoise - the Tortoise WINS ;)

.; May 27, 2008 12:19 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leahtexas [not] 4 obama you are blind the national ave. is 47% for obama and 46.1 for Hillary. Jean; May 27, 2008 12:22 AM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

The polls comparing the Candidates for the GE is truly useless, at this point in time.

Similar ones of Kerry, Mondale and Dukakis showed they were winning by large margins.

What happened after the GE? They became the perennial losers of Bleeding Liberal Ideology!

BHO will be one of them, if he is the Nominee!
:-(; May 27, 2008 12:23 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leahtex [not]4 obama you're right he hides behind a shell. Jean; May 27, 2008 12:24 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave I'm not saying that she didn't say that I don't know but long before now she has been saying that it wasn't fair to the voters. Jean; May 27, 2008 12:26 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Nat'l RCP Average

05/08 - 05/25

Obama 51.2
Clinton 41.0

Obama +10.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA

Obama/Sebelius
Obama/Lincoln
Obama/Anyone BUT hdrc

.; May 27, 2008 12:27 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Folks,

I think my point has been proven. Anyone who comes to the site and reads just the last four hours of discussion will know which candidate's supporters have a sense of reality, and which candidate's supporters live in a much different realm of reality.

Mike; May 27, 2008 12:31 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leahtex[not]4obama you get one 1 page and it says this then you get on anough and it says something different I guess all of them is full of sh##. Jean; May 27, 2008 12:34 AM
Independent Voter said...: Aunt Jean - "I'm not saying that she didn't say that I don't know but long before now she has been saying that it wasn't fair to the voters. Jean"

----------

You're right! She didn't start complaining about it until it looked like she wasn't going to be able to wrap it up on February 5th - meaning she was behind in pledged delegates! She is a FRAUD!!!!!!!!!

HA, my verification word = bulll; May 27, 2008 12:40 AM
Hippolytus said...: Yam,
I guess Hillary has Barack right where she wants him. She's just toying with him (and us), right? Is that what you're thinking? On what possible basis do you surmise that she'll earn 240 delegates in June? Mike in MD is correct -- you must be delusional. Enjoy your "fairy tale" -- it's about to come to an abrupt end.; May 27, 2008 12:41 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in Maryland you are so right. They would see that Clinton supporters have a heart and Obama supporters are heartless. You not just stepped in that one you fell in it LOL LOL LOL Jean; May 27, 2008 12:43 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave she started saying that BEFORE she got behind in delegates. Jean; May 27, 2008 12:45 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Emma-

This question is for you since you are an English teacher.

When you see words misused such as:

enough - another
our - are
their - there
your - you're
declare - declear
etc.

Does it drive you batty?

.; May 27, 2008 12:46 AM
Aunt Jean said...: I meant to add. Do you follow her that closely.I don't think so. Jean; May 27, 2008 12:46 AM
Yamaka said...: "On what possible basis do you surmise that she'll earn 240 delegates in June?"

hippo:

It's very easy. Most of the remaining SDs are most probably Hillary Leaners.

On seeing her impressive lead in PV on June 4th, they will all move en mass towards her. For these SDs PV is important.

Most of the BHO Leaners have already jumped ship! They have already gone from the pan to the fire!

Therefore, it is highly likely that the remaining SDs are for Hillary's Nomination.

Just wait for a few more weeks. The Game is not over, yet.

In deed, we live in interesting time!

:-); May 27, 2008 12:49 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yamaka said: "It's very easy. Most of the remaining SDs are most probably Hillary Leaners."

-------------------------

WOW everyone I just figured it out!!! Yakama is actually a comedian and has only been pulling our leg all of this time!; May 27, 2008 12:53 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; May 27, 2008 12:55 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
Dave she started saying that BEFORE she got behind in delegates.

Auntie Jean?

You're saying that she started complaining about the situation in Michigan prior to January 3, 2008, the date of the Iowa caucuses?

You will find, if you do the RESEARCH, that Senator Clinton NEVER had a delegate lead, starting with Iowa, when the first delegates were chosen.

Now prove that she made a comment about 'Michigan voters being cheated' prior to January 3. It's your assertion, so prove it.

Not that I think you can prove it, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt right now. Maybe some of the wacko-right sites will provide you with 'proof'? But we want dateable quotes from reliable sources.

Your reputation (what little is left) is dependent on your research.

Mike; May 27, 2008 12:59 AM
Yamaka said...: Hippo and other BHO supporters:

Why do you think there are still some Ed's Ds and nearly 235 SDs undeclared so far?

Take a guess. I told you what I think.

I bet most of these are NOT BHO's supporters. They will Never Ever support the Minority Candidate, for he cannot win the GE.

He is a Bleeding Liberal of the type of Carter, Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry. Do you know what happened to these Semi Gods of Liberal Ideology?

Ask RodentinMD, the Master of Goebell's Propaganda Machine!

It's Electability, Stupid.

:-(; May 27, 2008 1:08 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Word of the Day

Obfuscate

Transitive verb

1. To make so confused or opaque as to be difficult to perceive or understand: "A great effort was made . . . to obscure or obfuscate the truth"

2. To render indistinct or dim; darken: The fog obfuscated the shore.
______________________

One thing is for sure - between words used by Senator Obama and the journalists I have had to look up more English words in the past couple of months than I can remember ever having to do in a long time ;)
__________

Obama Obfuscates on Chavez & FARC

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obama_obfuscates_on_chavez_far.html

.; May 27, 2008 1:09 AM
Hippolytus said...: Yam,
Have you noticed that superdelegates have been going heavily for Obama, even in places he did not win (e.g., Reps Costa and Cardoza in CA)? The supers see the writing on the wall, and will want to be on the winning side (even early Clinton endorsers like Lynn Woolsey will change jerseys at the appropriate time).
According to the NY Times page (which admittedly does not have the most accurate count), of the 175 remaining unpledged delegates (not counting add-ons not yet assigned, which by the way, will tip in favor of Obama), 83.5 of those delgates are in places Obama won, 64 in places Clinton won, and 28 in places which have not yet voted. Even if she is fortunate enough to get 50% of FL and MI delegates, there is no reason to believe she will win a majority of them, let alone enough to win the nomination.
The final result is no longer in doubt.
"Come over from the dark side...
May the force be with you."; May 27, 2008 1:10 AM
Kujo said...: Right now Obama 49 to 2025
There are 30 unassigned SD remaining, out of the 19 are of states Obama won, 11 from states HRC won. If the move in those directions, Obama will need 30 more delegates. There are 86 remainind delegates. Obama would only need a 56 - 30 spread to win election. Pelosi club would just be insurance.

But since there are many na sayers out there, it is best to win in every possible way.

Not counting Flordia & Michigan: Obama has a 161 delegate lead

Counting Florida & Michigan (as is) Obama still has a 38 pledge delegate lead. Can HRC gain 38 delegates in the last 3 contest. NO.

Popular vote not with Florida Michigan: Obama wins.

Popular vote with Florida not Michigan: Obam wins.

Popular vote with Flordia and Michigan: Hillary Wins.

Most states: Obama wins.

Most SDs: Obama wins.

As we can see Obama wins in about every way you can look at the election. Its funny how the few remaining Die Hards cling to the one way and then try to say obama stole the election.

I originally supported Bieden. I felt secure either of the 3, Obama, Clinton or Bieden would do great. I felt good that if any of the 3 would come out on top, then the Democratic party should win the GE and the country would be on the right direction.

In the beginning when Clinton had a large lead, I enjoyed how the candidates attacked on issues, not on personal level.

As the primary moved on I became ashamed of the the Clinton campain and supporters. This whole Florida and Michigan thing as an example. To make claims like Obama cheated because his national ads were seen in Florida? Well in order to cheat, there must be some benifit for the cheater. Please show me how spending money on a race that would not count would benifit someone. How he stole the election. If somehow he changed the rules during the primary then I would agree. He did not, nor should anyone else.

Look, if the Clinton supporters want to make arguements that she is a better qualified leader, thats fine lets have some good discussions. But from my seat, it was a fair fight, a hard fight and it is over.

Good luck to the winner.

Lets now focus on what this country needs.; May 27, 2008 1:19 AM
Hippolytus said...: Yam said:
"Why do you think there are still some Ed's Ds and nearly 235 SDs undeclared so far?"
______

Because good Dems like Biden et al have been trying to accord her sufficient respect to let her run out the string until June 3, when the primary season will come to a natural close. After that, that shut this thing down in a heartbeat if she does not return the favor by stepping aside graciously.; May 27, 2008 1:20 AM
Kujo said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 27, 2008 1:24 AM
Kujo said...: Republican Blindness.

Its funny, I remember reading about who the US won the cold war. If you watch the film "Charlie Wilson's War" the repeat it. Force the Soviet Union to spend tons of money on its military fighting in Afganistan. Force its economy to crumble.

I have always felt that if our system of Government was that much superior, then over time on its own merits, we will win out. I believe this was the case agains the USSR.

If the Republicans really believed that this is how we won the cold war, then why are we falling into the same trap?

Lets all join forces and fight the real enemy, McCain

Go Dems in 2008, go Obama; May 27, 2008 1:24 AM
Yamaka said...: "Even if she is fortunate enough to get 50% of FL and MI delegates, there is no reason to believe she will win a majority of them, let alone enough to win the nomination."

Hippo:

This is where we differ vehemently.

She won FL and MI, period. The 2.3 million voters did not violate any Rule, only the Officials and Politicians did, as per Gov Dean.

Therefore, the RBC Committee must seat ALL Ds. They can choose to sanction the real villains, the SDs of MI and FL.

When she gets ALL the delegates that she earned in MI and FL, the total TDs she has will be 1972. She needs 240 from the outstanding 317 TDs to clinch the Nomination.

Assume the RBC punishes her by not allowing ALL her delegates. She will go all the way to the Credential Committee for a review at the Convention. War will break out.

Then you know the rest of the story. No one can emerge as the victor. The villains of the RBC and DNC can celebrate their own sinister achievements: John and Cindy McCain will be dancing in the Inaugural Ball.

Is this what you have in mind?

Because in full Democracy, ALL votes cast are counted and their delegates seated, period.

Otherwise, the Party will be destroyed from the in side out!

We will Never Allow the Weakest Candidate to be Nominated By the Party, period.

War will begin in Denver soon!
:-(; May 27, 2008 1:27 AM
Anonymous said...: Mike in Maryland said:

Therefore I think it is our duty to suffer from the Yammerer's Yammerings so that it is demonstrated to the rest of the world just how out of touch with reality Senator Clinton's supporters are, and by extension, they might be led to think that the candidate such Yammerers support just might have a similar warped sense of reality herself (something most of us already recognize, though).

Think of the suffering as just a temporary thing that will sooner or later pay dividends to, and is for the greater good of, the Democratic party, the US, and the world.

That's my thinking. The two most effective posters for the Obama cause have been Yamaka and AuntJean.; May 27, 2008 1:28 AM
Independent Voter said...: LOL - LEAH!!!!!!!!

------

Aunt Jean - you are WRONG! She was behind in the delegate count ever since Iowa. The ONLY lead she ever had on Obama was super delegates.

He won more delegates than her in Iowa.

Pledged delegates
January Contests (THAT COUNT!)
IA - 27-Obama/14-Clinton
NH - 12-Obama/9-Clinton
NV - 14-Obama/11-Clinton
SC - 31-Obama/12-Clinton
--------
Total - 84-Obama/46-Clinton
(Obama +38 PLEDGED DELEGATE LEAD - for Juanuary contests)

February 5th
AL 27-Obama/25-Clinton
AK 9-Obama/4-Clinton
AZ 25-Obama/31-Clinton
AR 8-Obama/27-Clinton
CA 167-Obama/203-Clinton
CO 36-Obama/19-Clinton
CT 26-Obama/22-Clinton
DE 9-obama/6-Clinton
GA 61-Obama/26-Clinton
ID 15-Obama/3-Clinton
IL 104-Obama/49-Clinton
KS 23-Obama/9-Clinton
MA 38-Obama/55-Clinton
MN 48-Obama/24-Clinton
MO 36-Obama/36-Clinton
NJ 48-Obama/59-Clinton
NM 12-Obama/14-Clinton
NY 93-Obama/139-Clinton
ND 8-Obama/5-Clinton
OK 14-Obama/24-Clinton
TN 28-Obama/40-Clinton
UT 14-Obama/9-Clinton

FEB 5th Total:
849-Obama/829-Clinton
(Obama +20 PLEDGED delegate lead for Feb. 5th contests)

FEB contests beyond Feb 5th:

LA 34-Obama/22-Clinton
NE 16-Obama/8-Clinton
WA 53-Obama/25-Clinton
ME 15-Obama/9-Clinton
DC 11-Obama/4-Clinton
MD 42-Obama/28-Clinton
VA 54-Obama/28-Clinton
HI 14-Obama/6-Clinton
WI 42-Obama/32-Clinton
US/VI 3-Obama/0-Clinton
---------
284-Obama/162-Clinton
(Obama 122 More delegates through February contests)

March Contests
OH 66-Obama/75-Clinton
RI 8-Obama/13-Clinton
VT 9-Obama/6-Clinton
TX 99-Obama/94-Clinton
WY 7-Obama/5-Clinton
MS 20-Obama/13-Clinton
-----------
209-Obama/206-Clinton
(Obama 3 pledged delegate lead in March contests)

April contests
PA 73-Obama/85-Clinton
(Clinton 12 pledged delegate lead for April contests)

May contests
IN 34-Obama/38-Clinton
NC 67-Obama/48-Clinton
WV 8-Obama/20-Clinton
KH 14-Obama/37-Clinton
OR 31-Obama/21-Clinton
--------
154-Obama/164-Clinton
(Clinton +10 pledged delegates for ALL of May contests)

As you can see aunt jean, Hillary Clinton NEVER had the pledged delegate lead!!!!!! She ONLY had the superdelegate lead.; May 27, 2008 1:29 AM
Independent Voter said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 27, 2008 1:32 AM
Hippolytus said...: Yam,
Guess all of us will find out soon enough the outcome of the nomination process.; May 27, 2008 1:33 AM
Independent Voter said...: What I was getting at in my last post aunt jean, is she did NOT complain until she was BEHIND in the pledged delegate count (which was BEFORE Florida and Michigan had their INVALID election)! THAT IS FACT!!!!!!!!; May 27, 2008 1:33 AM
Bull Schmitt said...: Howdy all -

I peeked at the script, and thought y'all might want to know how this epic comes out in the end?

Florida's going to be seated at half strength based on the January vote, and Michigan will get seated at the 69-59 compromise, just like Oreo's been trying to tell us. These are the solutions according to what the state parties have been working toward.

Since the add-ons broke as expected this weekend, that leaves Sen. Obama needing to find around 35-40 Superdelegates (and/or Edwards delegates) to endorse him by the close of business June 2nd, to let MT/SD put him over the top - and declare victory.

Now that also depends on the committee announcing a decision on the 31st, or 1st. Any reasonable compromise will allow Obama to clinch an undisputed majority of pledged delegates in Puerto Rico, which should allow the 7 current members of the Pelosi club to announce.

Look for two or three Supers a day to be rolled out, and then a busy day of Supers on the 2nd, so the campaign can figure out precisely how many are needed to get within about 10 of whatever the final goal line becomes.

Or all remaining 193 (non add-on.. the Yammer always forgets the add-on Supers haven't all been named yet. And Poland. He forgets that too. I blame it on too much chlorine.)

Or all remaining 193 Superdelegates could endorse Sen. Clinton tomorrow, just like Yamalamadingdong is telling us. Yeah, that's the ticket!; May 27, 2008 1:35 AM
Yamaka said...: Hippo:

"good Dems like Biden"

Biden is like any other SD. He is just another Candidate who hopelessly lost in the early Primary, like 6 others, notably Richardson, Edwards etc.

Remember, as of this minute Clintons ARE the Democratic Party legitimately speaking.

Bill Clinton has the track record of being elected twice to the WH.

Hillary Clinton has the MOST popular votes cast so far in the Primary.

All others just need to listen to them for direction and justice.

Not Biden, not Carter, not Kerry, not Kennedy. They just don't have the credibility or track record.

They are all the perennial losers of General Election.

Do you remember the days of Carter? America dreads of Carter after his 1976-80 Administration.

Americans will never ever allow any Liberal Ideologue to come to power in America again!

:-(; May 27, 2008 1:37 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike I'm not quite sure when she said it but it's been quite awhile ago. Jean PS did the post from the admin. was it mine to Leahtexas[not]4obama? Jean; May 27, 2008 1:40 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yamaka said: "The 2.3 million voters did not violate any Rule, only the Officials and Politicians did, as per Gov Dean."
_______________

Yamaka -

You are still only partially posting what Dean said. There were THREE statements he said - the TWO others you are still omitting from your spin.
___

Here is what Dean 'REALLY' said:

May 6, 2008
DNC Chair on resolving Florida, Michigan stalemate
Posted: 02:00 PM ET

From CNN Associate Producer Martina Stewart

(CNN) – Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, set forth three principles that he thinks should govern any effort to reach a compromise regarding seating the Michigan and Florida delegations to his party’s nominating convention.

First, “we want to respect the voters who went to the polls,” Dean said. “It was politicians that made a mess of this — not the voters,” he told CNN’s Don Lemon Tuesday.

“Secondly, you have got to respect these two candidates,” Dean said of Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. “You cannot change the rules at the end of the game and change the outcome.”

“Thirdly, you’ve got to respect the 48 states that followed the rules they way they were supposed to,” the former presidential candidate said.

“So there will be some sort of compromise in the Rules Committee on the 31 of May, I hope,” the DNC chair said. “But we don’t know what that compromise is going to look like right now.”

.; May 27, 2008 1:41 AM
Hippolytus said...: Bull Schmidt just nailed it.; May 27, 2008 1:41 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike I'm not quite sure when she said it but it's been quite awhile ago.Mike I'm not going to look up everything she has said just to prove a point to you that to much trouble besides even if I did you probable will not believe it. Jean PS did the post from the admin. was it mine to Leahtexas[not]4obama? Jean; May 27, 2008 1:42 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Bull and just where pray tell do you get that info. I don't believe Hillary will except that because Obama did NOT get votes in Michigan.So why would he get almost as much as Hillary that is STEALING THEM!!!!!!!! Jean; May 27, 2008 1:46 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Independent voter said: " LOL - LEAH!!!!!!!!"
________________

Okay what did I say that was that funny? :)

.; May 27, 2008 1:48 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike in maryland you can't really count Tx. caucuses yet because the count isn't finished.Plus that is when Obama was getting a free ride from the which he is still getting it. Jean; May 27, 2008 1:50 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Bull Schmitt-

At the end of the script did it say that Bill and Hill are finally going to go back to Arkansas? ;)

.; May 27, 2008 1:52 AM
Hippolytus said...: Leah Texas4Obama said...
"Bull Schmitt-
At the end of the script did it say that Bill and Hill are finally going to go back to Arkansas?"
__________

The Arkansas state troopers hope not.; May 27, 2008 1:56 AM
Hippolytus said...: Headline: "Bill Clinton gives 'Secret Service' New Meaning"; May 27, 2008 1:59 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Greywolf you obama supporters always go to polls that hates Hillary do you do that to make Hillary look bad. Obama is unelectable VOTE HILLARY CLINTON OUR NEXT POTUS!!! PS battleground always have the worst polls on Hillary so please don't give me that BS!!!!!! LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL; May 27, 2008 2:03 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Dave,

Just a little correction. The numbers you are showing include the Edwards delegates that moved to Obama, and shifts in delegate totals at county and/or district and/or state caucuses.

As an example, immediately after the Iowa caucuses, the estimates were Obama with 16 pledged delegates, Edwards with 14 pledged delegates, and Clinton with 15 pledged delegates (see The Green pages Iowa page for breakdown).

They tied at 9 pledged delegates each in New Hampshire on January 8; and on January 19, in Nevada, Obama originally got 13 pledged delegates and Clinton got 12 pledged delegates at the precinct caucuses, but the count changed to 14-12 in Obama's favor at the state convention.

On January 26, in South Carolina, Obama got 32 delegates and Clinton got 12.

So the cumulative pledged delegate count was (Obama/Clinton):
January 3 - 16/15
January 8 - 25/24
January 19 - 38/36
January 26 - 70/48

And thank you for kindly correcting me when I stated delegate. I should have stated 'pledged delegate' when I simply stated 'delegate'.

Auntie Jean - Technically you would be correct IF you had argued that she made statements about Michigan prior to when she lost the total delegate lead (pledged and super). However, you were only talking about pledged delegates, and just like you, I didn't include the word "pledged".

Besides, since you are the parrot of the Yammerer, you never can know the superdelegate count, as "they don't vote until the Convention". So by that standard, the historical record still stands - Hellery NEVER had a delegate lead when you only consider the pledged delegates. After all, there is not, and cannot be, a superdelegate count until the Convention, according to the Yammerer.

Mike; May 27, 2008 2:03 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leahtex[NOT]4obama not hardly but I do know where you can go LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL Jean; May 27, 2008 2:05 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: AP has a story titled:

McCain says he and Obama should visit Iraq together

* I guess McCain wants to go back to Iraq and Lieberman must have refused to take him again since McCain was so embarrassing on the last trip!; May 27, 2008 2:12 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Wow - good response!

Obama spokesman Bill Burton declined to respond directly to McCain, saying only: "Senator Obama thinks Memorial Day is a day to honor our nation's veterans, not a day for political posturing."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080527/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

.

I think McCain is going to be in BIG trouble going up against Obama and the Obama Machine!; May 27, 2008 2:19 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leahtex[not]4obama sorry don't believe anything you have to say go away!!!!!Jean; May 27, 2008 2:20 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leahtex[not]4obama not hardly obama will know what it's like to be beaten LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL.Why because the SD's are scared to death of a AA that is what it's boiled down to. So in Clinton's supporters eyes they are letting him [of course with the media's help] STEAL IT!!!!!!!!! Jean; May 27, 2008 2:24 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Well I'm BORED with the women on here so I'm going to bed, guys have a good night. Jean; May 27, 2008 2:26 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 27, 2008 2:28 AM
Aunt Jean said...: I almost forgot Hipp has been boring too!!!! Jean; May 27, 2008 2:29 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Waaaaaaaaah!?! Waaaaaaaaah!?! Waaaaaaaaah!?!

Auntie Jean didn't try to insult me like she tried with others when she said she was leaving for the night. I feel neglected!

Waaaaaaaaah!?! Waaaaaaaaah!?! Waaaaaaaaah!?!

But I'm sure that I'll get over it.

VBG

Mike; May 27, 2008 2:41 AM
Bull Schmitt said...: One more tidbit for y'all to chew over before I head off for bed...

Just imagine how embarrassed the Clintons are right now, losing this nomination to (in their eyes) a neophyte insurgent like Sen. Obama.

Now - think of what happens to them if the Clinton's don't campaign vigorously to make sure Obama gets elected in the fall.. aside from becoming scapegoats as the sore-loser spoilers, what happens to them and their DLC faction when Obama beats McCain without their help?; May 27, 2008 2:43 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Bull Schmitt -

I really don't care what 'they' do - I just want them to STOP doing negative things that will hurt Senator Obama. It has been disgraceful the way 'both' Clintons have treated a member of their own party.

I think after Hillary drops out of the race in June that they should just go home and NOT campaign for Senator Obama. I think he will do just fine up against McCain.

If the Clintons stick around then they are apt to say things that will boomerang back on Obama.

I don't want to see the Clintons on stage with Obama it will hurt his image!

The sooner the Clintons head back to where they came from the better ;); May 27, 2008 2:48 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Bull Schmitt-

Here is one for you to read and think about:

Hillary Clinton Could Face an Uneasy Return to the Senate

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/26/us/politics/26clinton.html?partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all

http://tinyurl.com/57jl22

.; May 27, 2008 2:53 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Regarding backlash from the RFK remark - I just read the below comment on another website and I wanted to share it with ya'll:

My dear democrat,are we campaigning for the nomination or associnations?I think IT is arogant to keep on campaign because your planning is to kill some one rather then focusing on the agenda.Hilary, as one of your supporter you had disapointed me and now It is time to give up the political fight and go on associnations planning. Shame on you Hilary

Posted by: NY,G | May 27, 2008 1:29:54 AM

_______________

P.S. Why is it that there are so many HRC supporters/ex-supporters (all over the internet) that do not have the command of the English language?; May 27, 2008 3:24 AM
Hippolytus said...: Leah Texas4Obama said:
"Why is it that there are so many HRC supporters/ex-supporters (all over the internet) that do not have the command of the English language?"
_________________

Becuz Hookt on Fonix werks four them!; May 27, 2008 3:36 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Leah Texas4Obama said...
P.S. Why is it that there are so many HRC supporters/ex-supporters (all over the internet) that do not have the command of the English language?

Leah,

Maybe it's the socio/economic/educational status of many of her supporters/ex-supporters?

Occasional typos can be forgiven. When trying to make a persuasive point, though, the use of proper grammar, spelling and punctuation is a very powerful force, a force that many don't, or refuse to, recognize.

As an example, Eats, Shoots & Leaves does not have the same meaning as Eats Shoots, & Leaves. And then, Eats Shoots & Leaves has an entirely different meaning. (Hint - the punctuation causes the three statements above to have entirely different meanings.)

Of course, those who at least attempt to use proper grammar, punctuation and spelling are considered 'elitists' by many, who, as they say that, look down their noses at such 'inconvenient and inconsequential nuisances of life'.

Mike; May 27, 2008 3:48 AM
Amot said...: Mike,
if punctuation was the most important, I definetely suck... I mean I use my native punctuation rules because I like punctuation :) Someone already blaimed me for my exclamation marks!; May 27, 2008 4:06 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Amot,

I salute those, like you, who make a serious attempt to use proper English grammar, spelling and punctuation when English is not their native language.

Those who grew up with English as their native (and usually ONLY) language, though, are the ones that quickly lose my respect when they don't even try to use and write the language properly. It displays a mentality of laziness and worse, and a penchant to harangue, not have a polite discourse.

Yes, English can be a pain to learn and use properly. But there are many people who learn it as a second language who can speak and write it in near perfection. It makes you wonder about the native speakers who don't even try.

Mike; May 27, 2008 4:32 AM
Amot said...: Mike,
thank you for the kind words. But I must disagree about something. Beside my native language, which, I admit, is extremely complicated, I use 5 foreign languages and, definetely, English is the easiest one when it comes to grammar and punctuation. It is real pity to see so many people writing like 1st grade kids. The native language should be treated with honor and respect. I believe the language, not the flag or the anthem, holds the true spirit of a nation!; May 27, 2008 5:25 AM
Miranda said...: greywolf-- My son's father is in the secret service. I called him this morning, and I can assure you, they are not finished looking in to this mess with Trotta.
M; May 27, 2008 8:53 AM
Anonymous said...: Just to clarify on when the FL and MI schpeel began... January 24th. Until then nothing was said directly from Hillary Clinton except that they had broken the rules and therefore would not count.; May 27, 2008 10:29 AM
Unknown said...: Over in Australia there are a number of people closely tracking the US primaries. Within that group one individual that goes by the name of Possum (who has an established background in stats) has recently worked up some data dealing with probably wionners of the primaries based on ongoing betting rates.

Here is a quick preview of the probablility of a Democrat win over the last compule of months.

http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/dempresprob27may.jpg

Possum plans on painting these graphs through the campaign. You can read more at the following link.

http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/intrade-data/; May 27, 2008 10:43 AM
greywolf said...: Mike and Amot,

Not everyone that types in english, using poor to no puncuation falls into that category of being uneducated or lazy. Some of us for years have been trained to write in short bullet points followed by ....
to save time, as well as to the KISS standard; meaning keep it simple stupid. LOL

Miranda

I know what you mean about the secret service. I am Retied US Army, Counter-Intelligence Division. I still have many contacts in the military and civilian sectors, all of which state that there actually are several 100 on going investigations as to the allegations of assination comments/desires pointed towards Barack Obama. It is sad that we, as a society, have reached the level of having an AA and female running for such a high office in this country; yet faid that we still have those bigoted, racist, and sexist diehards in the far left corners of our society.; May 27, 2008 10:49 AM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

"The polls comparing the Candidates for the GE is truly useless, at this point in time."

Wow, you finally said something I agree with 100%. I remember how far back Ford was to Carter in 1976. Then Ford made up ground all the way to the election. He obviously came up short but it does show that with 5 months to go, it will feel like 5 lifetimes.; May 27, 2008 10:50 AM
greywolf said...: It is my sincere hope that there will be some activity today with those, for lack of better terms, remaining SD that appear to be afraid of the Clinton Machine.

It is also my deisre to have a open discussion today, without all those unrealistic posts that truly have no meat, substance, or facts in them. That are truly written in an attempt to stir up trouble and hate for one candidate or the other.; May 27, 2008 10:52 AM
vwis said...: Jean,

A closed mind and a open heart. How interesting.

I see you are in good cheer. I'm glad of that.; May 27, 2008 10:55 AM
Miranda said...: I can't believe it personally. I don't think, especially considering the audience we are talking about that she could have said anything more stupid. I don't know why she isn't in handcuffs. I can't even watch him on tv anymore because I am terrified for him whenever I see him not totally surrounded and protected. I have called every advertiser and asked the company's position since they paid for her airtime and everyone has sent me to voice mail. No one even has a statement. It's like they are pretending it wasn't said. I live on the news and the net and I didn't hear about it until last night. I've been making calls ever since. Obviously someone needs to have a sit down with this woman and explain to her what she has done.; May 27, 2008 11:01 AM
Amot said...: Graywolf,
nobody ment you. I am ex-CI too and I am used to shorten my phrases, but I do my best to ease my readers.

About endorsements - I believe Obama is keeping his friends for June 4th. He wants to win the majority with the delegates from SD and MT. A friend said that he will be endorsed X+1 times this week if Clinton is endorsed X times. And that's all. He needs just 49 delegates and he will get appr. 45 from the next 3 contests, so he doesn't need landslide of endorsements right now. I believe on June 4th he will start with a dozen endorsements per day, including one major each day, and continue until Hillary gives up.; May 27, 2008 11:04 AM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

How's that math working for ya?

How's the pool? I hear only 317 delegates are still in it (using your favorite Option 5).

I have to admit, I am amazed at how long those Hillary leaning SD's can hold their breath.

You haven't posted a sign that says "No minority supporters", have you?

Hopefully you can roll-out a TV to poolside for the RBC meeting that will be televised on Saturday. Just be careful that you keep the TV away from the water's edge; I wouldn't want you to be shocked by the outcome.

You may want to post a sign that says, "Clinton Pool - beware, depth is not as deep as it appears".

Maybe they'll be fewer delgate votes available after Saturday? Maybe you can force all the FL &MI delgates to sit on the edge and dangle their feet in to represent their 1/2 votes?

So, how's that math working for you?; May 27, 2008 11:07 AM
Peter said...: Re Jpsedona

No doubt the polls are unreliable at this point. Specially if you look at McCain vs both Clinton and Obama. Clinton has gone free from attacks from GOP and McCain for months, because they know Obama will win. Clinton is also scoring better with registered democrats, which is because Obama-supporters are happy and say they will vote for both, some Clinton supporters are unhappy and say they will vote for mcCain. This will change, when the GE gets closer, we will see the true difference between McCain and Obama. Democrats will see that supporting McCain is against their standpoint on several key issues and Obama will do better with Democrats.
Obama is only polling around 75% in some polls, thats not realistic, his numbers will increase to 80-85% which is normal.
I also think both Obama and McCain will lose som support among independents because the difference between will be clearer. I`m not sure how the net effect would be, but probably more or less unchanged.
Another issues, is that McCain has campaigned less in some states. That will change and he will increase his support in a lot of red-states, like WV, KY, OK and probably KS, SD, ND and others.
Choice of Vps is also important, the net-effect here could be a key issue.

But all in all, I think Obama is underperforming a couple of points nationally, which is good because he has a 4-5% margin to McCain in most polls. Clinton is overperforming heavily, i think you could remove 3-4% for her in most polls.

But this is just regarding status quo, A LOT can happen. The economy could get worse/better, Iraq could get worse/better etc. The campaigns and others will probably do as much as they can do find as much dirt as possible on the other candidate. Not easy to see how that turns out, they would probably do the same with the VP choices as well.; May 27, 2008 11:10 AM
greywolf said...: Leah. Just a little information or shall I say re-education for McCain and an education for those that do not fully understand Military terms.
This is in regards to the post by McCain and Bill Burtons reply.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080527/ap_on_el_pr/mccain

Surrender: To present a white flag of truce, laying down all weapons and giving into the will of those that you have been fighting. Down side to this is that one risks being murdered in mass by the winning force, or in the best case, being placed in prison for many years to come as a POW.

Tactical Withdrawal: A military term used to with draw for action in hopes of reorganization, re-supply, or re-allocation of resources to your benefit at a later date.

Withdraw: Having many meanings depending on when, where and under what circumstances said with drawal takes place.
In the context of Senator Obama. Having place preassure on the government and people of Iraq to take full responsibility for their own internal and external security; the government of the U.S. would withdraw all combat troops from active combat. Most said troops would return to the U.S. while a few seasoned, well trained, combat troops would be redeployed in a defensive posture to provide combat support and additional training to the Iriqi military, polic, and other defensive forces; as well as provide added combat support should there be a resergance of terrorist activity of such magnitude that would call for such added support.

McCain's statements are bogus BS and only adds creedance to many statements by those that do not agree with his views that McCain has focused too much of his energies and mental capacity on the military war machine.; May 27, 2008 11:23 AM
jpsedona said...: Peter,

Over the last 40 years, choice of a VP has generally been unimportant in the GE. This year could prove to be different, but I would suggest that:

1) VP candidates with a strong in-state campaign network (i.e. governors vs. Senators/Representatives) can help carry a state
2) VP choices are more likely to hurt a candidate vs. help them.
3) VP choices with greatly differing ideologies can detract from the top of the ticket
4) VP choices do not have the geographic draw that they did 40+ years ago
5) People are more likely to vote against, instead of for, a VP
6) Appearances are reality; the choice is often to 'look good'

That said, this year could be different. An Obama VP choice with foreign / military / National Security experience may be important counterbalance when running against McCain.

McCain choosing someone younger AND qualified may be needed to counteract his age.; May 27, 2008 11:35 AM
apissedant said...: I would like to point out, that during Clinton's reign, the Democratic party rescinded to unheard of lows. We lost state after state, both governors and legislators. We gave up the House and the Senate. Then, when he left, we gave up the White House for eight years. Not until 6 years AFTER Clinton were we finally able to retake most of this. Oh I am so happy that Bill came and led my party to... well... apparently a toilet bowl.; May 27, 2008 11:43 AM
Unknown said...: Some background on superdelegate banking.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_campaign_banks_superdele.php; May 27, 2008 11:44 AM
jean said...: Good Morning,
Back from Baseball Tournament with the family.
I have a question.
The Obama supporters are organizing a counter protest for the DNC meeting against the Clinton supporters who want FL and MI counted.
How can this be productive?
Without FL and MI there is no way Obama can win the general election.
Just declaring a counter protest looks like suicidal tendancies for Obama. Does anyone see this as stupid?
jean not Aunt Jean; May 27, 2008 11:51 AM
greywolf said...: Okay time to go. Silly politics are at it again. See ya later.; May 27, 2008 11:57 AM
Anonymous said...: Jean not Aunt Jean, please cite your source.; May 27, 2008 11:57 AM
jean said...: CNN on the political ticker.; May 27, 2008 12:00 PM
Yamaka said...: "P.S. Why is it that there are so many HRC supporters/ex-supporters (all over the internet) that do not have the command of the English language?"

Folks & RodentinMD:

This is an example of a type of Elitism that BHO was roughed up in PA.

The "ill-educated elite" crowd here, is thin on message, and now they all become Professors of English!

Low lives! Go get a life!

BHO's Children don't understand that this blog site is about politics and campaign strategy, and NOT about English punctuations, metaphors, pun and rhymes! If you are interested in such fancies there are other sites to sooth your linguistic wounds! Go there.

Write about policies, demagogues and political philosophies here: not useless poems and punctuations!

:-( :-(
_______________________________

jp:

The pool is blue, clear and inviting all the time! Chlorine is doing the job.

The Math is still holding:

1. All the rats belonging to the Suicidal Sect have long gone (from the pan to the fire!)

2. The remaining about 317 TDs keep the key to the puzzle. I am hoping about 240 of them will Nominate the First Woman President of US.

3. As I said before PR is very Key to Hillary. She MUST do very well there, and she will.

At least a 150 K Lead in Popular Votes will be a "Head Turner" although any Lead is good, IMO.

4. As I said before, the RBC Meeting is going to be very contentious, and the final verdict will not be announced the same day. But it will be announced in early June, and one of the Candidates will appeal the verdict.

I smell lot of blood at the Convention.

Also, I see your man McCain and Cindy dancing in the Inaugural Ball!

5. This will be a real lesson for the Party: Solve ALL the issues BEFORE the Voting starts in Jan of the Election Year, and not during the Primary.

A very costly lesson.

Stay tuned for the June/July/Aug Surprises for 2008.

:-); May 27, 2008 12:09 PM
jean said...: grey wolf,
That attitude is what is going to bite Obama in the general election.
He has the delegates to make it.
Why are they poking the dog with the stick.
jean; May 27, 2008 12:11 PM
Vicki in Seattle said...: mmm hmmmmm; May 27, 2008 12:15 PM
Yamaka said...: "Just declaring a counter protest looks like suicidal tendancies for Obama. Does anyone see this as stupid?"

Jean,

Good Morning, another hot humid day in Houston.

You are right on the money!

Yes, BHO has suicidal tendency!

This aptly illustrates it. From Day One he did not want the votes of FL and MI. He believes he cannot win there.

When people tried hard to have the REVOTE before PA, he ran away from the town.

Now he wants all the "Uncommitted" votes of MI for himself!

He is indeed a Suicidal Type!

:-); May 27, 2008 12:15 PM
Bull Schmitt said...: Jean -

I think there's an effort by Obama supporters (not so much by the campaign itself) to make sure that it's not just a bunch of bussed-in Clinton rabble rousers turning Saturday's meeting into a farce.

I would be surprised if there was any major disturbance, just people wanting to make sure that everyone's interests are protected, and that the story of what goes down is told.

(Although I suppose if it gets nasty, it could be seen as a possible Denver preview...)

In the end, everyone in the DNC (even the Clinton campaign and their party backers) understand that (a) FL and MI have to be sanctioned in some way to prevent future primary schedules from becoming even more chaotic, and (b) Lanny Davis is certifiably, batshiat crazy.

There will be a settlement announced either Saturday night, or possibly Sunday afternoon that will move Sen. Obama to within striking distance of whatever the final number of delegates becomes. Take it to the bank ;)

Then maybe Yamalamadingdong will take that swan dive off his 10-meter board into the shallow end of his pool (He's only allowed to play in the shallow end). More likely he will SHOCK THE WORLD by revealing his new allegiance to John McCain. Bet no one else out there saw that one coming ;); May 27, 2008 12:25 PM
jean said...: Yam,
I know that HRC is the only way to a win in November but things do not look good.
The attitude of Obama supporters on the average is so spiteful and rude it just amazes me.
There is absolutely no respect and the Republicans know they will have at least 4 more years.
If Obama supporters were actually savvy they would support the protest to have FL and MI counted.
I guess if you drink Kool-Aid it eats up to many brain cells.
jean; May 27, 2008 12:25 PM
Anonymous said...: I see the Clinton Kool-aid is deep today. Obama didn't want to count FL and MI from the beginning? Well you're right. What you fail to note is the Clinton agreed with him completely in the beginning, then she changed her mind. I wonder why that is?; May 27, 2008 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Here is the story from CNN:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/27/obama-supporters-planning-dnc-counter-protest/#more-7362

Most of the story discusses the efforts of Clinton supporters to protest the RBC meeting. Here is the entire amount of information about an Obama-sponsored counter-protest:

“Hillary Clinton's supporters are going to be bussing in protestors for the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting, so it's critical that we show up for the counter-protest,” wrote on organizer in a post on the Daily Kos Web site Tuesday morning.

No names. No details. No additional information.; May 27, 2008 12:29 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

With regard to the RBC, there are a number of scenarios that could play out. I have thought that the RBC might not anounce their decision until after the final primary.

However, I now feel that given the prospect of extending out the primary season if they do not decide, they will anounce a resolution on Saturday.

Based on the published agenda, the various parites will make their pitch in the morning in an open session. The afternoon session will be a discussion & vote(s).

I tend to think that although there are numerous Hillary supportes on the RBC, but only a handful are die-hard supporters (do anything to secure her victory). But I think whatever they decide, they'll do it and announce it Saturday.

I think that if she has the support, the RBC will announce Saturday to give her momentum going into the remaining primaries.

If she loses in the RBC, they will anounce their decision so that Obama clinches (with additional SD's by 6/4).; May 27, 2008 12:32 PM
jean said...: Von,
Could it possilby be that the Dems cannot win without those states.
Perhaps an error is being corrected.
Perhaps there are 50 states instead of 48.
Perhaps while everyone agreed it is very simple that the answer is they screwed up.
How the Obama campaign can think this will hurt them is stupid.
The DNC will not do something to hurt their golden guy.
jean; May 27, 2008 12:39 PM
Mug said...: Yamaka made this statement yesterday:

why don't you use his middle name or the full legal name, Barack Hussein Obama Jr?

What are you afraid of?

The total truth?
_________________________________

What truth is it that you are eluding to here? Please enlighten us all as to what disparaging character trait must Senator Obama have because his middle name is Hussein?

Here is some truth for you to contemplate. Nothing can be said about the character of Barack Obama because his middle name is Hussein. However, much (and nothing good) can be said about the character of those, such as yourself, who are bother by it or believe that it has any significance. Words such as "shallow" and "ignorant" come to mind. It's as if you have the mentality of a frightened child.; May 27, 2008 12:43 PM
greywolf said...: Fyi everyone. This is one of the best non biased report I have heard in a very long time as to the seating of FL and MI.

http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/05/27/ac.hillary.deal.cnn; May 27, 2008 12:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Jean, what do you mean 48 states? Seems to me the there's alot fewer than that according to the Clinton campaign. I mean afterall, I've heard over and over again from the Clinton campaign how those small red states that hold caucuses don't count.; May 27, 2008 12:48 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Yamaka said:

"5. This will be a real lesson for the Party: Solve ALL the issues BEFORE the Voting starts in Jan of the Election Year, and not during the Primary."

IMO: The issues were all solved BEFORE the voting started. That was true UNTIL your candidate Senator Clinton wanted to change the rules by counting the votes / delegates in MI and FL.; May 27, 2008 12:52 PM
greywolf said...: Jean,

Obama is not the one that stated that McCain has focused too much of his energies and mental capacity on the military war machine. That statement was if I remember correctly (i may be wrong) was made by a member of either the house or the senate. I also believe it was a republican that made that statemet. He further went on to say that he belived McCain should find something else to talk about or a better way to express himself, as he believed that his arguement against Obama had no legs.
My comment was made to point out that Mr McCain's assertion that to withdraw combat troops as the same as surrender, which is far from the truth.; May 27, 2008 12:58 PM
Yamaka said...: "In the end, everyone in the DNC (even the Clinton campaign and their party backers) understand that (a) FL and MI have to be sanctioned in some way to prevent future primary schedules from becoming even more chaotic,"

BullShit:

I have a suggestion: if you want to sanction someone, then sanction the SDs of MI and FL who are the true Villains of this Debacle.

Why sanction the innocent voters and their delegate? Are you maniacal morons?

Sanctioning the SDs will send the signal that future "jumping the line" will not be allowed!

BS: If the RBC punishes the innocent voters and their delegates, believe me there WILL be chaos in the Party. Hillary will appeal the decision, and the whole thing will be dragged into the Convention, where the REAL WAR will begin.

Finally, the Democratic Party will lose both the WH and the Congress.

Is that what your sinister diabolical brain envisions?

Intolerable Ignorance and atrocious Arrogance!

:-(; May 27, 2008 1:01 PM
jpsedona said...: Oregon Dem,

you said: "issues were all solved BEFORE the voting started"

well, I agree... sorta...

Once the states defied the agreed-to schedule for '08, the DNC was placed in an awkward position in regards to FL & MI because of the 100% penalty.

The decision to penalize the states all of their delegates was a mistake that many on the RBC probably now regret. If there were a nominee after Super Tuesday, the issue would have been resolved by seating MI & FL in some fashion; essentially, it would have been a political footnote.

But because the candidates are so close in a hotly contested campaign, it's cast a spotlight on the whole process. The RBC won't want to look like entire wimps, so they won't seat the delegations in full. The also know that the GE is going to be very tough if FL & MI aren't seated.

So, the RBC / DNC is at fault for the entire mess; follwed by the Dem parties in each state. And both Hillary & Obama have legitimate gripes over the disputed delegates in each state.

It should be fascinating to see the arguments by the various camps (campaigns & states). I know that the morning presentations are open to the public, but I sure hope that the deliberations are also open (and they don't decide to make those deliberations and votes behind closed doors whatever they decide).

Politics & sausage... that's this weekend's menu...; May 27, 2008 1:06 PM
Yamaka said...: Ore Dem:

Your solution is vindictive and directed against the Victims and not the Villains.

Disenfranchising 2.3 million voters is your solution!

My solution is: Count ALL votes and seat ALL delegates from ALL STATES and territories.

Punish the Villains of this Debacle: ALL or some of the SDs from MI and FL who handled it very badly from the beginning.

Your instinct of disenfranchising innocent voters is mind boggling, if you believe in Inclusive Real Democracy.

:-(; May 27, 2008 1:06 PM
Independent Voter said...: leah - I was LOL about: "Emma-

This question is for you since you are an English teacher.

When you see words misused such as:

enough - another
our - are
their - there
your - you're
declare - declear
etc.

Does it drive you batty?"

--------

We all know who you are talking about! LOL; May 27, 2008 1:06 PM
greywolf said...: As to the counter protest, yes it is happening, but it was not orgainized by the Obama camp. It was organized by his supporters, in an attempt to make sure that there was fairness in what is being stated. Obama nor Clinton voiced any reservations as to the original DNC ruling way back when. In fact both candidates stated for the record that niether FL or MI would count towards the election. However it is Senator Clinton that has fallen so far behind that she has made this a political issue. The further behind she falls the worse her retoric and finger pointing at Obama becomes on this issue.

For the record, and I am not going to go back and try to find all the references; Obama is all for seating both FL and MI. However I might add, he has a legitimate concern to the fact that these votes do not reflect reality because from the records of registered voters, more than 3 million registered Democtatic voters from both states combined DID NOT vote because they were told their votes would not count.
Further more, had their been an actual concerted effort and campaigning in both states by both candidates, it is doubtful (per both parties top supporters and campaign management staffers) that the outcome would be as it currently exists. That is his concern and it is by all rights legitimate. Obama even in the past stated he was willing to work something out but backed away when Sen Clinton unwaveringly stated they should be seated exactly as voted. So he took the stand that he would abide by what ever the DNC rules as fair and just.
Those are the plain and simple facts.; May 27, 2008 1:08 PM
greywolf said...: From my perspective this is what I think the DNC will do or at least what they should do.

split the delegates in half and re-allocate as follows:

The first half, seat as voted, giving consideration in MI that had Obama been on the ticket he would have pulled at least 40% of the vote.

The remaining half take the average of current polling information in those states as to popularity, GE electability, and vs McCain head to head competition and allocate based on that result.

This has been mentioned by many of those supers on both sides and by members of the DNC rules committee as a possible senario several times.; May 27, 2008 1:13 PM
Yamaka said...: "So, the RBC / DNC is at fault for the entire mess; follwed by the Dem parties in each state. And both Hillary & Obama have legitimate gripes over the disputed delegates in each state."

jp:

Amen. Well Said.

Remember, had BHO won the MI and FL he WILL and MUST do the same thing that Hillary does now!

It's only fair for either Candidate.

But, your assertion that RBC will look weak if they rectify the mistake is not correct.

If they believe a mistake has been committed by the Party, then they MUST stand up and say so, and give the justice, as they see it fit. This is the chance for "Mea Culpa"!

My position is punish all the Villains (SDs and other Officials). Not the Victims: voters and their delegates!

;-); May 27, 2008 1:13 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

I've agreed with you that the SD's are the ones who should receive the penalty for moving up the MI & FL primaries.

you said: "If the RBC punishes the innocent voters and their delegates, believe me there WILL be chaos in the Party"

Honestly, at this point Dem voters from those two states will be happy if they have any say.

you said: "Hillary will appeal the decision, and the whole thing will be dragged into the Convention, where the REAL WAR will begin"

If Hillary loses in the RBC (however you want to define that), can you explain how she could possibly win at the convention? Honestly, I see absolutely zero chance that she could win a credentials fight or a vote on the floor of the convention. Can you explain to me how that could possibly happen?

Obama + Dean Credential committee members = no change in delegate seating.

Obama with the majority of delegates seated on the floor including MI & FL delegates seated by credentials committee = loss to seat delegations.

Also, remember there will also be 50+ delegations voting who foillowed the rules and not happy about MI & FL spoiling the party with a floor fight...; May 27, 2008 1:15 PM
greywolf said...: jpesdona

according to what I read as it applies to the RBC meeting, the initial part will be open to the public; however, the following discussion, debate and eventual voting as to the actual seating by the RBC will not be open to the public.; May 27, 2008 1:19 PM
Peter said...: SUSA poll from Iowa. Obama 9% ahead of McCain.

Obama-Edwards beats all McCain tickets with double digit margins. Thats the sixth poll where Obama-Edwards beats all McCain tickets with a double digit or close. States polled so far are CA, IA, NM, OH, PA and VA..; May 27, 2008 1:19 PM
Peter said...: Re Jean

I don`t think the counter protest is against the delegates being seated, I think its directed towards the Clinton supporters.

I think both protest are unproductive, but i think the Clinton protest is the worst. The delegates will be seated, both campaigns wants that, protests are just divisive. The problem is that the Clinton campaign is trying to make it look like Obama-campaign are against the delegates being seated, that is just not true. The truth is that both campaigns wants the delegates to be seated, but Obama camp wants a solution where the delegates are divided evenly and the Clinton camp wants all delegates to be Clinton-delegates. Neither campaign will get their will, the solution will be a mid-point.

Protesting is just foolish, because everyone wants the delegates to be seated. The Clinton-protest is a trick to make it look like Obama is standing in the way of the delegates being seated. Obama has NEVER said anything like that....; May 27, 2008 1:24 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Yamaka said...
Ore Dem:

Your solution is vindictive and directed against the Victims and not the Villains.

-------

Interesting I did not think I proposed a solution - I just stated a fact that there were rules in place and now we have to change them because of Senator Clinton pushing that we have to....; May 27, 2008 1:28 PM
JayW said...: Yam,

Why so cranky today?
Is reality setting in?
The reality that HRC is, at this point, just a waste of oxygen and resources?
That HRC will NEVER get the nomination or the VP slot?
The reality that you supported a loser and, might I add, did so in a way that proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that you, yourself, are a loser?

I love reality.

Obama 08.

PS... It doesnt matter what happens in FL and MI. Let HRC change the rules midstream... she still loses. That is the sad part, she cant even win by cheating. That must be a HUGE blow to her over-inflated ego!!!!; May 27, 2008 1:29 PM
jean said...: Von,
You are side stepping the question.
The dems are not going to change the system right now. All the other states votes will count.
The issue of FL and MI needs to be fixed someway for this November.
All 50 states need to be counted.
If this is not done McCain will have 4 years.
All I hear is look at the math. I am.
If he is going to have a unified party he has to step up.
The people did not do this. Just a few stupid people in power of the DNC. This was a mistake.
He will have the delegates he needs to win the Dem nomination.
The way this situation has been handled by the Obama organization has been poorly handled.
How he would handle the Congress and Senate scares me.
While he is highly intelligent I fear he has little common sense.
jean; May 27, 2008 1:29 PM
dsimon said...: Yamaka: sanction the SDs of MI and FL who are the true Villains of this Debacle.

Why sanction the innocent voters and their delegate?

Ah, how do we know that the voters are innocent? It's entirely possible, if not probable, that many of them approved of the decision to go early to get more attention. The claim that all the voters are "innocent" is simply an assumption.

Also, failure to impose some kind of penalty would be unfair to the voters in other states (such as myself) who also wanted more attention but voted in accordance with party rules, and those voters are certainly innocent.

Just sanctioning the superdelegates--many of whom are federal representatives and may have no or limited sway over state party decisions--may be an insufficient penalty to prevent line-jumping, especially when the number of superdelegates is far less than the number of pledged delegates.; May 27, 2008 1:30 PM
dsimon said...: jean: All I hear is look at the math. I am.
If he is going to have a unified party he has to step up.
The people did not do this....
The way this situation has been handled by the Obama organization has been poorly handled.
How he would handle the Congress and Senate scares me.

He does as well if not better against McCain in Michigan than Clinton, so it seems that people there don't blame him for this mess. And if you look at the math, he probably won't win Florida no matter what he does--nor does he need to do so to with the election.

Really, I don't see how he's handled it badly at all, unless one believes there should be no penalty for holding an invalid election.

And I don't see how this issue has any relevance on working with the House and Senate.; May 27, 2008 1:37 PM
Unknown said...: Obama +1

Obama: 1977
Clinton: 1779; May 27, 2008 1:37 PM
Bull Schmitt said...: Yamalamadingdong -

I don't think you've thought your cunning plan all the way through. Seating the FL and MI (pledged) delegations in full while taking away their Superdelegates...

"My position is punish all the Villains (SDs and other Officials). Not the Victims: voters and their delegates!"

... will doom Sen. Clinton's candidacy just as much (if not moreso) than seating the two states under the traditional penalty. (As both parties have done in the past.)

You would be taking away Sen. Clinton's 15-5 lead in Superdelegates from those states who have already declared, as well as the 30 undeclared Supers from FL and MI, who figure to lean more toward Sen. Clinton since she's demagogued the revote issue (once realizing she was screwed without them).

Now what did I tell you about diving headfirst into the shallow end of your pool, Yammer? - you're showing Lanny Davis-levels of brain damage ;); May 27, 2008 1:38 PM
Mug said...: Yam wrote:

Your instinct of disenfranchising innocent voters is mind boggling, if you believe in Inclusive Real Democracy.
_________________________________

The Democratic Party Primary is not a democratic election. It is a private political party nomination. The DNC could choose it's candidate by drawing straws or singing "Eenie Meenie Minie Mo" if they wanted to. The delegates from MI and Fla will be seated so as to "include" those states in the process for purposes of winning the GE in November, not to give Hillary the nomination. The popular vote is a mute point now since it is well known that Hillary's conduct in the past two months has made millions of voters all over the country wish they had voted for Obama instead. Hillary is the least popular candidate now regardless of what the numbers say.; May 27, 2008 1:42 PM
Keryl said...: Fl and MI issue is now pretty much how to punish them while retaining democratic support in the fall. Clinton supporters who feel that if those states aren't counted somehow Hillary will sue or appeal aren't looking at the fact that even if she wins her appeal and gets all the votes as voted with not a single vote for Obama out of MI she is still behind by 83 delegates. Not many people appeal decisions when there's no gain involved.; May 27, 2008 1:46 PM
jean said...: RE peter
I have been told over and over and over and over again that the Obamanation is huge.
Obama leads this nation.
The math is the math.
If he makes a grand gesture in the allocation,guess what?, he still wins.
The only thing I see right now is a divided party and McCain's smiling face.
The Republicans are going to watch the Circus eating popcorn and peanuts.
It is guarenteed that HRC can only be the villian from the press but Obama could come out smelling like a rose.
It looks like Obama is going to shoot himself in the foot.
jean; May 27, 2008 1:47 PM
Peter said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 27, 2008 1:53 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Really - there are a few Silly arguements going on again in here, but freedom of speech and all, go right ahead.....

If you really think that Democrats that vote for Democrat issues and thus, vote the parties ticket are going to vote for a Republican just because the DNC imposed a penalty, then you must really think low about the voters in FL and MI.

My main thing I wanted to bring up was against John McCain. He has really be spouting his Military record and Patriotism lately. Memorial Day and all, but the dude has only voted positive around 30% of the time on Veterns issues. The guy was a joke at the naval academy, and his service career is full of promotions that he got because of his Admiral father and Admiral grandfather.

As much as I could never vote for Clinton, there are 100 more items why I could not vote for McCain. And I'm not a Democrat - I'm an Independent!; May 27, 2008 1:55 PM
vwis said...: Jean,

Sorry. That was intended for Aunt Jean.

Akamay,

I agreed with you on point #5. However, there were three members of Clintons campaign that made those rules. Ickes, McCauliffe, and her Campaign Manager. They clearly saw what the were doing when they voted to strip the delegates. The DNC will have to enforce some sort of punishment or faced this again in future elections. That's why the 50% option is their present choice.
Strip SDs sounds good but would never get the vote. They'd be voting against themselves. Plus to your benefit, the delegates would become the SDs in those two states and that would not be fair to the 48 others states. The true number will be 2117, i believe.; May 27, 2008 1:58 PM
greywolf said...: if no one has noticed, Nancy Drummond from WY endorsed Obama today. 48 and counting.; May 27, 2008 1:58 PM
Peter said...: Re Jean

They are giving and indicating that they will compromise, something Clinton has refused to do so far. But, you got have some perspective her, they can`t end up with an unfair solution where Clinton gets 75% of the votes in MI or something like that, that would put her around 100 delegates behind Obama and that could mean Clinton will stay until the convention which is BAD for the party.

I think Obama has handled this well, they have said that they are willing to compromise, but you can`t validate MI/FL elections either, because they where more or less a "beauty" contest, specially Michigan where Obama wasn`t on the ballot and turnout was ridiculously low (less than 600K). The votes made in january should be used as some form of basis for the allocation of delegates, but you must use other factors as well. There are several issues involved here, the credibility of DNC and RBC, the voters who voted and the future regarding similar situation.
You also have to remember that Obama camp can`t decide this alone, RBC is involved and Obama doesn`t control RBC, Clinton is involved and Obama definitively can`t control Clinton.

Both parts have to give something here and so far Clinton has shown NO interest in any giving from her part. We can`t have a situation where Clinton comes as close as 100 delegates, because that could mean a situation where she continues to the convention.; May 27, 2008 2:03 PM
Martin said...: On 5/27, Yamaka said: "Most of the remaining SDs are most probably Hillary Leaners."

Gee, this sounds familiar. On 5/15, Yama said: "BHO's SDs are almost done, the rate will be considerably slower from now onwards, and the about 260 SDs will be undeclared by June 3. Most of this belongs to HRC."

5/14: "Anyway, still 272 SDs are left undeclared. I am expecting big moves towards HRC very soon!"

5/11: "I suspect that all most all the Obama supporters have already declared. Vast majority of these remaining SDs are Hillary leaning or the moderate types, unlike the FAR Left ideologues of BHO."

And the actual number of superdelegates gained since 5/11? Obama 40, Clinton 9.

But all those HRC supporters are going to declare any minute now, right, Yamaka? Yep, a whole flood of 'em! Very soon! Just you wait!; May 27, 2008 2:03 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: vwis, I agree: "The DNC will have to enforce some sort of punishment or faced this again in future elections. That's why the 50% option is their present choice."

That was in their rule book as the minimum for moving the date.; May 27, 2008 2:04 PM
Yamaka said...: "Ah, how do we know that the voters are innocent?"

dsi:

Because Gov Dean say so.
__________________________________

Bull Shit:

Some sanction is worth pursuing.

Sanctioning SDs is more appropriate than hurting the voters and their delegates.

__________________________________

jp:

My view is if there is an appeal avenue available, then the Candidate must proceed with the appeal, if she or he wants to.

Here, the appealing Candidate could be HRC or BHO, it depends on the verdict.

My assumption is Credential Committee at the Convention is the next step for this issue to be resolved.

My personal suggestion to Hillary is "fight as hard as you can. In the end if you lose, fine.

Act like Ted Kennedy in 1980.

Come back in 2012 and capture the Throne, as Reagan did in 1980 - Life is short, so play hard; don't just give up for the sake of some bogus fuzzy Party Unity. Our Centrist Ideology is more important than anything else - FAR LEFT Liberals will destroy America"

Stay tuned. We indeed live in an interesting time!; May 27, 2008 2:08 PM
greywolf said...: Truth be known, there will Not be another run for the White House by the Clintons. Regardless of anything else said, there has been so much damage done to their reputation by Hillary and Bill that any rebound would be unthinkable. There is much talk now as it is as to the difficulties she may have just returning to her Senate seat. Also look at the NY voters, so many of them have become so upset with her actions that she could be replaced when she comes up for re-election. You all really need to read the news with out putting your own perspectives or thoughts into it, then you may fully understand the negative impact both Clintons have brought upon themselves.; May 27, 2008 2:14 PM
jean said...: dsimon,
In referance to the house and senate.
If Obama doesn't think he CAN win he totally avoids the issue. He doesn't even go there, including states.
So he doesn't need how may states?
The main thing right now that will push him to November is that the Super Delegates do not want to be shown voting against a AA. They do not want to vote against progress.
This notion is noble and I do not care if a person is a rainbow.
His lack of experience will be his downfall in Congress and the Senate.
Unfortunatly he will not get that far.
If he does win,which I feel is not possible, he will say it is because he doesn't have support for whatever he is trying to do.
The martini is the preference, not Kool-Aid.
If you can't play with the big dogs, don't get off the porch.
HRC can play tough and can drink Kool-Aid in the afternoon and Martini's at happy hour. She will get things done. Oh Well.; May 27, 2008 2:16 PM
vwis said...: Emit,

Thirteen of the members of the RBC are Clinton supporters. If she doesn't compromise and Obama does, then she risks offending her own supporters. Which I don't put past her at this point. She is the one to me that is clinging to . . .

Also, some of the members of the RBC are Obama supporters and some independent.; May 27, 2008 2:16 PM
Martin said...: Note to Yamaka: you can keep typing "FAR LEFT" in all caps if you want, but it isn't convincing anyone. HRC's policies and BHO's policies are virtually identical. It doesn't matter which line of realclearpolitics.com you go by (the legitimate ones up top, or the irrelevant ones on 5 & 6), Obama has at least 16.6 million votes, and they are within 600,000 votes of each other. So it's not like Obama is some fringe wacko and Clinton is the one with mass appeal. Who do you think you're fooling?; May 27, 2008 2:17 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: The RBC knows that the public in Michigan and Florida were told BEFORE the two primaries that the votes would NOT count - so tons of people stayed home and did NOT vote.

The RBC will have to factor this into their decision in order to be fair to everyone.

Some people on this thread keep talking about the people that voted but always seem to forget about those people that did not vote because they were told THE VOTES WOULD NOT COUNT.

The primaries in FL and MI were not fair and valid polls and the results of those two contest do not reflect the real voice of the people - period.; May 27, 2008 2:24 PM
Peter said...: re vwis

13 clinton supporters
8 Obama supporters
7 uncomitted as we know it

But you got to remember that these people are here to do a job, they are not there to do everything they can do help Obama or Clinton. Most of these people take their job seriously. At least a couple of the ones listed as "Clinton-supporters" have said that 100% seating is out of the question, it is also likely that Obama has some "hidden" support among the uncomitted, Donna Brazile as an example is officially uncomitted but you don`t have to be a genious to figure out that she supports Obama (She has defended Obama several times in CNN-panel).
I think the only one who will do "whatever" it takes, is harold Ickes who is in the Clinton campaign. But I think most of the people there will do what they think is best for the party and for our chances against John McCain.
I also think I`ve read that 50% cut is the minimum penalty for moving the primary ahead of schedule.; May 27, 2008 2:25 PM
JayW said...: Who cares if the Democratic party is a little split due to the "wacko" HRC supporters come election time.

Obama will still win the White House.

The democratic party will be more unified and stronger than the republicans due to the Libertarian Party and Bob Barr. The right wing republicans will be split donw the middle on that one.

So, all you HRC supporters, either support the winner (Obama) or go elsewhere and pout. We dont NEED you... but will accept you if you play nice.; May 27, 2008 2:27 PM
Peter said...: A new Obama attack against McCain/Bush. They have made it easy for him when they have a fundraiser together but don`t want to many pictures together:). McCain has a huge problem, he can`t reject Bush completly, that would give him problems with the party and those who "supports are president no matter what (actually a big voter group)". He can`t be connected with Bush to much eiter, because lets face it, Bush is seen as a worse friend than Rev.Wright!

"Starts off by saying: “He’s holding a fundraiser with George Bush behind closed doors in Arizona. No cameras. No reporters. And we all know why. Senator McCain doesn’t want to be seen, hat-in-hand, with the President whose failed policies he promises to continue for another four years.”
Continues: “On issue after issue, John McCain is offering more of the same policies that have failed for the last eight years. That’s the agenda that he and the President are raising money to support later today"; May 27, 2008 2:28 PM
Yamaka said...: "His lack of experience will be his downfall in Congress and the Senate."

jean:

Amen. Well Said.

I agree Hillary is a tough fighter - she has more passion to get things done.

The Democratic Part is afraid of AA too much.

Pandering to them too much is alienating the women, working and older White Americans, the backbone of the American Electorate in the Primary as well as in the General Election.

Beware, Party Wigs!!

You need to keep the Majority of the Voters with you to win the GE.

Minority alone is NOT sufficient.

;-); May 27, 2008 2:31 PM
vwis said...: Akamay,

When you visit realclearpolitics.com lookup the head-to-head match-ups for the GE against McCain. Look at the battleground states Obama +2 Clinton -8 so much for that argument. Also, 61% of Dems believe they will win in the GE, only 49% of the Reps. These numbers should increase once we have a clear winner.; May 27, 2008 2:32 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: During Hillary's RFK remark the other day she said Bill didn't wrap it up in 1992 until June. That is a lie.
Why does she keep saying things that are not true when she must know people will research her statements?
___

From the Political Wire:

When Was the 1992 Presidential Race Over?
My Life

Despite Sen. Hillary Clinton's insistence that her husband didn't clinch the Democratic presidential nomination until June 1992, Bill Clinton had a very different recollection in his own memoir, My Life.

He writes: "On April 7, we also won in Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. On April 9, Paul Tsongas announced that he would not reenter the race. The fight for the nomination was effectively over."

.; May 27, 2008 2:34 PM
vwis said...: Leah,

Its nice when a candidate knows how to concede.; May 27, 2008 2:42 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: vwis said: "Leah,Its nice when a candidate knows how to concede."
_____________

And it would have been nice if she had bowed out gracefully when she had had a chance to do so. At this point when she drops out if she does any campaigning for Obama it will not look one bit sincere.; May 27, 2008 2:56 PM
vwis said...: Akamay,

Just read the headline:
Hillary Clinton, The Next Supreme Court Justice?
In http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com
Maybe she can do so and the first case she could preside over with the one re: the Fl votes. That way this could go on for far after the GE in Nov.; May 27, 2008 3:01 PM
Independent Voter said...: Mike in MD,

Thanks for the correction. I forgot to take later switches into account. But the premises remain the same. She never complained until it looked like she was going to fall behind and that Obama always had the pledged delegate lead, and that the ONLY category that she lead in was supers.

Therefore Clinton didn't begin to contest the MI/FL delegations being seated until she was behind in pledged delegate count.; May 27, 2008 3:05 PM
Anonymous said...: LOL. I love the lack of experience argument. Obama has spent more time in elected office than Hillary (the 36th most senior democractic member of congress). Not to mention how her "experience" has led to one of the worst political campaign in recent history.; May 27, 2008 3:06 PM
Independent Voter said...: I keep hearing this argument that it should be the super-delegates who should be penalized in MI/FL. My question is why? Most of the supers in both of those states had nothing to do with moving up the elections in those two states.

MI - yes the governor is a super, but those in the state legislature are not supers. So how would only penalizing only the supers actually be "punishing" those states? It was the local officials who chose to violate the rules. I understand that some of their representatives in DC thought it was a good idea but they had no authority to make those decisions.

I could be wrong, and please correct me if I am wrong in what I have said.; May 27, 2008 3:14 PM
Mug said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 27, 2008 3:17 PM
Mug said...: Yambag wrote:

There are 317 TDs outstanding. They will call the winner.

My guess is at least 240 of them will support Hillary some time in June.
__________________________________

...and then the Great Pumpkin will rise up out of the pumpkin patch bringing candy for all the good little Clinton Supporters.

=); May 27, 2008 3:19 PM
greywolf said...: So interesting reading for those that are interested in a retorical yet very scathing open letter to Senator Clinton. It is full of facts, and really brings it all to full circle as to how many of her supporters really feel at this moment.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andy-ostroy/emhillary-hillary-hillary_b_103626.html; May 27, 2008 3:21 PM
RobH said...: vwis-
not to pick nits, but I think the new num will be 2118.

previously 405 delegates
1/2 of FL & MI adds 184
new total is 4234
1/2 of 4234 = 2117 = a tie
2118 = a tie plus one; May 27, 2008 3:21 PM
greywolf said...: FYI Huffington post quoats a few chapters of Bills book of the 1992 race. In his book he states that he had the contest wrapped up and solidly in his hand in April. Let me see.. what happened after April.. there came May a full month, then the first few week of June. Wow again they dont agree with each.; May 27, 2008 3:27 PM
greywolf said...: any way back to reading the news on the net and looking for super d
endorsements.; May 27, 2008 3:28 PM
jpsedona said...: Independent voter,

With respect to penalizing the SD's in MI & FL, history shows that many of them were complicit in the mess that occurred.

In MI, Sen. Carl Levin has been advocating for MI pushing up their primary for years. The Congressional Dems in MI & the state party worked hand and hand to move up the primary. As you indicate, not everyone who was involved is a delegate. But I believe that everyone who is a delegate was involved.

In FL, the Dems co-sponsored the bill setting the primary date. All but one Dem legislator voted to move it up. Where was the leadership of FL Dems while this was happening? They were leading the charge.

So, penalizing the SD's may not punish all of the culprits, but penalizing SD in those states gets some of them.; May 27, 2008 3:41 PM
vwis said...: RobH,

I looked up the number on this site under Fl by the numbers. I also, double checked the math, because I know how picky you all are. I took 2025 + 91.5 = 2116.5 and rounded up 1. 2117. I fully anticipated this. After all Hillary herself says the number is 2010, she believes. But keep adding one all I care. 2025 is already adjusted.; May 27, 2008 3:41 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: And as of today under the current rules of the DNC...

The number of delegates needed to secure the nomination:

OBAMA 48
Clinton 246

It's a wonderful day!; May 27, 2008 3:47 PM
RobH said...: qwgsBTW vwis,

That 2118 number came from Chuck Todd, who I generally trust.

He also articulated an alternate scenario, where pledged delegates get penalized 50% and SD's get counted @ 100%. While I think many here (including me) think that is counter-intuitive, he views it as likely, since SD's won't likely penalize themselves. That being said, the math looks like

4050 old targets
1/2 MI & FL pledged = 156.5
100% of MI & FL SD's = 55
new total = 4261.5
new number req'd to clinch = 2131

So he thinks it could be 2131 as likely as 2118. (My cynic self says 2131, bu my money's on 2118 as I believe non-MI and non-FL SD's WILL accept a penalty to those SD's.; May 27, 2008 3:49 PM
vwis said...: RobH,

Also, worth noting Stephanopolis said that it will all wrap up after the final primaries. As many SDs agree with Carter.; May 27, 2008 3:50 PM
RobH said...: vwis, just saw your 3:41 post.

My math looks like this

Full seating

FL pledged 185
FL supers 26
MI pledged 128
MI supers 29

half seeating

FL pledged 92.5
FL supers 13
MI pledged 64
MI supers 14.5

Total dels @ 1/2 = 184
add'l req'd per candidate = 92.0, not 91.5 as you had.

I agree, hadd it totalled 216.5, then 217 does it.
But at 2117 flat, 218 will be required to "exceed".; May 27, 2008 3:54 PM
RobH said...: Boy, I sure can leave out some critical digits can't I? Can I blame it on th keyboard???; May 27, 2008 3:56 PM
greywolf said...: This if for yammer and all those that claim that McCain will beat Obama in the GE:

5/27/08

We were not regular updating the website during the memorial day weekend because there just were not enough polls being conducted. The democratic primary has pretty much come to a halt and then, as a pollster, why would you bother polling on a weekend where a large number of people may be on vacation anyways. The disparity between those answering the phone this weekend versus those that do not could be split among income lines and/or other demographic areas causing an imbalance in your poll results.

Nevertheless, there were still a few general election polls that we updated and now have, for the first time in three months, Barack Obama leading John McCain in the electoral vote count.

Barack Obama - 272
John McCain - 266
The reason for the sudden shift is this: Survey USA has Obama ahead in Ohio by 9%. With Ohio's 20 electoral votes, that is a 40 EV switch.

State #EV Barack Obama John McCain
California 55 47.0 40.0
Pennsylvania 21 45.0 43.0
Ohio 20 48.0 39.0
North Carolina 15 39.0 44.0
Arizona 10 39.0 50.0
Kentucky 8 32.0 57.0
Iowa 7 47.0 38.0
Mississippi 6 39.0 54.0
Nevada 5 40.0 46.0
New Hampshire 4 48.0 43.0
Montana 3 39.0 47.0; May 27, 2008 3:57 PM
vwis said...: RobH,

I too agree with Chuck Todd on most part, however his number is 2026 at present and this site has it at 2024 as per the Green Papers.

It ultimately is up to RBC, not you, Chuck or I. I'm sure they will find their own way to further complicate things. I this I trust.

I'm volunteering to serve on a committee to reform the whole process.; May 27, 2008 4:00 PM
Anonymous said...: Yam said:
"My personal suggestion to Hillary is "fight as hard as you can. In the end if you lose, fine.

Act like Ted Kennedy in 1980.

Come back in 2012 and capture the Throne, as Reagan did in 1980"

My personal feeling is, she did fight a very strong fight, but has lost now. She busted that ceiling and proved women now must be consdidered viable President candidates in America. But it will not be HRO. If it is percieved she doesn't do everything possible to help Obama win, it won't even be an option to run in 2012. She will have far far less support to start off with. She wouldn't start with a huge advantage like this run. The attacks, lies, and mistakes made this campaign would be brought up and relived all over again before she could start. Time for her to write a new chapter. She can still make a difference for her state, her party, her country, but it will not be as POtUS.; May 27, 2008 4:01 PM
RobH said...: I agree with Carter, and Steph, and many others. One week from right now, we will all either, a) be in anticipation of whether MT and SD deliver the req dels (if he picks up enough SD's this week and the RBC decides as expected (as the written penalties are spec'ed)) or, b) be in anticipation of a cascade of SD's on Weds, if he doesn't have quite enough.

I think by June 4 he will have all the nums he needs under every scenario, and the only open question will be:

HOW WILL HILLARY REACT? CONTENTION OR CONCILIATION?; May 27, 2008 4:02 PM

«Oldest ‹Older 2201 – 2400 of 4317 Newer› Newest»

Welcome to Democratic Convention Watch

Blog Archive

Democratic Convention 2008

Democratic National Convention History

Denver & Colorado Democrats

DCW in the News

Friends of DCW

2008 Republican National Convention

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

4317 comments:

Tags