Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

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Mike in Maryland said...: There has been a lot of talk (more like Yammering) of the US being a democracy.

1. Does anyone (especially the one doing the Yammering) know that the US is NOT a democracy?

2. Does anyone (especially the one doing the Yammering) know that the US is a representative democracy?

3. And, more to the point, does anyone (especially the one doing the Yammering) know the definition of a representative democracy?

I'd bet most in this discussion would answer 'Yes' to 1. and 2. I'd bet the majority of people in this discussion could provide an accurate answer to 3., but a certain small faction (including one who is constantly Yammering with nonsense) would not be able to provide such an answer.

It would be nice to know that the people who participate are educated, or willing to be educated (as the majority who participate here are), and not just Yammer away, constantly showing their lack of knowledge of how the government of the United States operates.

Mike; May 21, 2008 7:42 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

How much have you donated (money-wise) to Hillary's campaign?

I'm just curious if you maxed out on both the primaries and GE. She is now $20.9 million in debt when you include the extra $1.4 million she loaned her campaign at the beginning of May.

Hillary does have $22 million set aside for the GE... unfortunately she can't use it to payoff her debt (those nasty campaign laws).; May 21, 2008 7:45 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Pablo about the AA vote there are no records of that but I don't believe that turned all the AA away from Hillary I think they voted for obama because of his AA blood that is a racist.It changed a little since feb 5 but just by a few points.So pleaseeeeeeeeeeee Jean; May 21, 2008 7:53 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Yamaka:

You convinced me!

I have changed my ways.

This race is not over just because Hillary cannot win the delegate count.

It is not over at all.

It is the popular vote that matters.

We have to tell the voters of Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota just that!

You have confirmed that what I need to do is get on the phone and make sure all of the Obama supportrs in those three primaries do not sit at home believing this is over and their votes do not count since Senator Obama has won!

Come on Obama supporters - get on the Yamaka express and get our fellow Obama supporters fired up in the three remaining primaries. That have to believe their vote matters.

Lets make sure Obama goes out winning them all.; May 21, 2008 7:59 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: USAToday has an interesting page on the GE and Electoral College math.

They have a 'default' map, with certain states already deemed leaning or likely to vote for one party or the other. The default map shows the D candidate with 248 Electoral votes, the R candidate with 135. I don't see much to dispute in the default map.

Click each 'unassigned' state once to change it to the D, a second time to click it to the R. To change an R state to the D, click it twice (once to 'unassigned', then again to blue, or to the D).

If you take all of the Confederacy as a given for McSame, plus Arizona, Kentucky and West Virginia, that leaves 248 for the D, and 226 for the D.

Now add New Hampshire as a D, we're at 252; add Iowa as a D, and we're at 259; add Colorado as a D, and we're at 268. Two short of the 270 needed. New Mexico (5), Nevada (5), or even Montana with just 3 would put the D over the top.

Florida? Not needed Ohio? Not needed. Missouri? Not needed.

Imagine if Virginia and/or North Carolina were put into play. Even if the D candidate doesn't win either, the R's would have to expend time, energy and MONEY to keep them, taking time, energy from contesting the 'old' swing states of Florida, Ohio, Iowa, etc.

To get to the map, go to the USAToday home page (http://www.usatoday.com), click "Politics", then scroll down to the "Create your 2008 election scenario" and click "The path to the White House".

Mike; May 21, 2008 8:01 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Pretty neat map.
Thanks for posting.

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 21, 2008 8:14 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oh here is a direct link to the map:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/electoral-vote-tracker.htm; May 21, 2008 8:16 PM
tmess2 said...: I am getting confused by Clinton metrics. When the popular vote helps our argument, we rely on the popular vote. When the popular vote doesn't help our argument, we rely on the actual numbers that count.

Somewhere there is a logic in there that makes sense, but I must have spent too many hours studying rules of logical reasoning to see it.

p.s. If you are going to talk about electoral votes, you have to remember that there was a certain third party candidate in that election taking votes away from the Republican candidate allowing for an electoral landslide. Can anyone say hello Bob Barr?; May 21, 2008 8:22 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Leah,

I should have included the URL to the USAToday EC map, but the full URL runs off the right side of the page, necessitating resizing of the page to the point you can't read anything!

Here's a TinyURL that will take you there (and it won't run off the page!!):
http://tinyurl.com/5k6r9d

Mike; May 21, 2008 8:23 PM
Unknown said...: I have to blame the DNC for all this hate ....the primary system they have is a horror story ... all these months of campaigning ...and stripping the the fourth and eighth largest states of their delegates.... .caucus's where 2 percent of voters pick the winner.....open primaries where outsiders can pick the winner.......super delegates where the winner is picked for political reasons...proportional distribution of delegates ....Where in the world elections are held when one candidate gets 15% votes and the other gets 85% of the votes and both get one delegate each. This is not DEMOCRACY. The election is being stolen by Hussein Obama
.....DNC created this mess and deserve to be laughed at....maybe this should go to the convention and tear this dem party apart so it can be rebuilt with some sanity and common sense. Using the Electoral vote method, Hillary has already gotten 308 electoral votes while Obama has only 232 electoral votes
THERE CAN BE NO LEGITIMATE NOMINATION UNLESS FL & MI ARE INCLUDED
She is already beating Obama by 176000 votes using popular vote method. She should be on top of the ticket and Obama should be the VP otherwise the Democrats will lose the election
The role of the “super-delegates”, to look beyond the immediacy of the moment, and make individual judgments of what ticket has the best chance of defeating the Republican candidate in the general election. And why should the “super-delegates” play that role? Not only because that’s the way the rules are, and we are being told constantly that everyone should play by the rules, but also because they are uniquely qualified to make that judgment.
IT HAS TO BE A JOINT TICKET OTHERWISE WE WILL LOSE THE WHITEHOUSE !!!; May 21, 2008 8:58 PM
Independent Voter said...: Nancy,

YOUR LOGIC (or LACK thereof) is FLAWED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nobody has won ANY Electoral Votes.; May 21, 2008 9:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Nancy wrote:
She is already beating Obama by 176000 votes using popular vote method.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

RCP has Clinton up by 174,000 votes, but only if FL and MI are included and the votes from five other states are excluded.

The MI vote is 328,000 for Clinton, 0 for Obama. From a state that cast 2.48 million votes for Kerry in 2004.

Just another example of the Clinton approach to democracy.

(A tiresome repetition, to be sure. However I keep hearing Hillary Clinton making these claims herself, so they need to be beaten down.); May 21, 2008 9:11 PM
Independent Voter said...: Clinton supporters "arguments"; May 21, 2008 9:18 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Nancy,

The seating of Florida and Michigan will be discussed, and maybe settled, at the RBC meeting on May 31.

Do you know why Florida and Michigan were assessed penalties?

BECAUSE THEY BROKE THE RULES.

As to how the delegates are determined for the convention, what do you propose for allocation? That the delegates be determined on a state-wide basis? If one candidate gets one more vote than their opponent, the entire delegation goes to the winner?

Or maybe the statewide delegation is determined by what percentage of votes they received in the state?

GUESS WHAT?

That is how it is now determined. Read up on the RULES to find out how the Democratic Party apportions the delegates.

And since we are speaking of the RULES:

MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA BROKE THE RULES, SO THAT IS WHY THEY ARE BEING SANCTIONED.

Understand? If not, go read the rules and see if you can find anything in the rules that supports your position. And if you disagree with the rules as they were put in place for this campaign, then devise a different set of rules, present them to the Democratic National Committee when they discuss the rules for the 2012 campaign, and see if they get enacted.

Until then, remember that the current rules were enacted in the summer of 2006, and are the rules that govern the way THIS campaign are run, not what some dissenters would like them to be.

By the way, did I say that MICHIGAN AND FLORIDA BROKE THE RULES, SO THAT IS WHY THEY ARE BEING SANCTIONED?

Mike; May 21, 2008 9:24 PM
Independent Voter said...: In case any of you Clinton Supporters don't understand what I meant by your argument (as I posted at 9:18PM) you can go here to check out what I mean.; May 21, 2008 9:32 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Australian Rules Football RULES!; May 21, 2008 9:35 PM
Independent Voter said...: LOL Emit; May 21, 2008 9:40 PM
Yamaka said...: jp:

I know Hillary is not Bill.

But when Bill says she is the best of the three candidates left in the race, I just believe him.

Because, he has the right instinct, experience and the intuition. He has a proven record to back it up.

That's all.

Plus, I happen to think that from their Yale days, Hillary has been his sparring partner on all policy matters. She cut her political teeth under his tutelage. She learned public speaking from him - the sense of empathizing with the people, from him. In return, Hillary has been the Brain Behind Bill, IMO.

That's all.
:-)
_______________________________

pablo:

Sorry that I cannot convince that BHO is a bleeding FAR LEFT Liberal. Believe me, most people will atleast say that Hillary is Right of BHO.

___________________________________

nancy:

You are right on the money.

FL and MI voters did not break any Rule, as per Gov Dean. He said only the DNC and Party Officials/Politicians did.

Therefore, the right solution is

1. Punish the Gov of MI and Carl Levin, the two villains in MI.

2. Seat MI and FL as is. In MI BHO removed his name as a strategy to woo the voters of early States. Four others left the name, and he WAS not one of them. It was his right to do so. Uncommitted votes should remain so because that's what voters wanted.

3. FL is ruled by GOP. There the Party Officials cannot do anything. Only the DNC Officials made mistakes, punish them. Include FL as is. BHO violated no campaign Agreement, by running campaign Ad in the cable. Therefore, punish him by 10% of delegates.

This is fair and very reasonable.

No body punishes the innocent voters anywhere in the world. Even thinking of it is sacrilegious, IMO.

SDs: Nominate the Majority Candidate. Ask the Minority Candidate to stand down and stand aside, because the Lioness is coming, coming fast at you.

Dear Hillary Supporters:

Get ready to rumble. Ready with your pitchforks and kitchen sinks.

When the Lioness calls, we will march towards Denver in short notice to show the strength of the Majority over the hapless cluless Minority Candidate!

We want simple justice:

In Democracy, Majority Principle prevails.

Go Hillary Go.; May 21, 2008 9:46 PM
Yamaka said...: Dear BHO's Children:

In your pretty minds, your Piper has already won the Nomination.

You have chosen the VP for him.

You should relax and have red win and caviar.

Ask BHO and Michelle to take a trip to Hawaii to relax and enjoy the moment. He is the President and Michelle is the First Lady (Now after so long, she can be proud of being an American!)

You Piper got a whopping about 17 million votes, which would fetch him nearly 500 EVs. You do NOT need Hillary or Bill or even the RBC Meeting. That's for whiners!

You are strong willed people with great mettle and deeper knowledge of democracy, representative governance and crime and punishment. Your vista is beyond the periphery of the Milky White.

Because with a Minority you can rule the Majority! lol

God will bless you all.

Sleep well for the night. For tomorrow will be another beautiful day. Twinkle in your eyes, grin in your face!! Insha Allah, BHO would appear in your sweet dreams!

:-( :-( :-(; May 21, 2008 10:09 PM
Anonymous said...: I agree with Yamaka. Hillary Clinton should continue to claim to be the "Majority Leader".

She should continue to claim that the legitimate vote count out of Michigan is 328,00 for her, zero for Obama.

She should continue to claim that the legitimate delegate count out of Michigan is 73 for her, zero for Obama.

She should continue to ignore the vote counts of Iowa, Washington, Nevada, and Maine.

She should continue to threaten to disrupt the convention if these outcomes do not happen.

And everybody who agrees with her should march on the convention.

In public.

In front of the TV cameras.

Unable to lurk in anonymous shadows of the internet.

Think any serious Democrat will be there?

Think Yamaka will be there?; May 21, 2008 10:12 PM
suzihussein22 said...: RobH-Yep. My thoughts exactly. The SDs should be stripped of their say in MI and FL. I just groaned, to say the least, when I heard about the delegates being penalized, especially in FL.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20080521/us_time/doesmccainhaveaveteransproblem

I would definitely have a problem with him.; May 21, 2008 10:12 PM
Larry Parker said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 10:13 PM
Larry Parker said...: Yet another Hillary Clinton lie comes out. Remember when the Clinton camp said that they received $10 million in contrubutions in the 24 hours after the April 22 Pennsylvania Primary? Well here is that proof that they were short of that by $8,300,000:

http://tiny.cc/GiDX0

(Had to delete last post, URL was too long to show up.); May 21, 2008 10:17 PM
tmess2 said...: omg, Marching on Denver with pitchforks?

Is this Zimbabwe or 1860 America where those who made all the rules and control all the power use violence when someone else wins?

In listening to a certain person's discussion, I am reminded of lines from the Bible when Pilate asked Christ "what is truth?" It seems that some of the hardcore followers of Clinton have taken their lessons from Orwell and Pravda and see truth as something that can be rewritten and redrafted however often it needs to be.

This type of reasoning is why I regret having voted for Hillary in the primary.; May 21, 2008 10:17 PM
Hippolytus said...: Why has not been much media reporting as to who exactly were the masterminds behind moving up the primaries in Michigan and Florida? In Michigan, I heard some MSNBC reporting on Countdown that Sen. Carl Levin has been a proponent of this idea, going back to when Terry MacAuliffe was DNC Chairman. Why hasn't he (and more recently, Michigan Gov. Janet Holmgren) been hammered? In Florida, I understand that the Republican legislators in Gov were behind it, but I assume it wouldn't have happened without Democratic acquiescence. It seems like the Democrats responsible for such acquiescence have not been individually called out to answer for their misjudgment. Why not?; May 21, 2008 10:19 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: repenting is good for the soul tmess2.

;o); May 21, 2008 10:19 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

As of this minute, HRC is leading in Popular votes by 63K - 173K as per line 6 and 5 of realclearpolitics.com

PR would be another blowout as WV in KY.

MT and SD will be for BHO but very narrowly.

BY June 4th, Hillary will have a minimum of 150K more than BHO if you count ALL votes polled in this Primary, period.

Yes, she will be the Majority Candidate.

BHO, please stand down, stand aside. The Lioness is coming at you very fast.

:-); May 21, 2008 10:23 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Zelma Henderson of has passed away in Topeka, KS:

Last surviving Brown v. Board plaintiff dies at 88

Other plaintiffs in other states that consolidated their cases with this one are still living. Her son Donald said when she fought for a cause, she was just fire.

She is part of what makes deciding on a POTUS so important. Who is challenging us to be a part of this country? Who is telling us to do, not let events and issues just wash over us?; May 21, 2008 10:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Aunt Jean said: Pablo about the AA vote there are no records of that but I don't believe that turned all the AA away from Hillary..."

Actually......

"Clinton's support among African-Americans, largely thanks to her husband's popularity, proved surprisingly strong at first, as did her smooth, state-of-the-art machine politics; in late 2007, a CNN poll gave her a stunning 57 percent of the black vote here in South Carolina, to Obama's paltry 33"

So in those short couple months, coupled with the Clinton statements, no doubt they help push them away. Eventually more and more would have gravitated towards Obama as his nomination became more of a possibility. They have spent a lifetime voting for mostly only white people.; May 21, 2008 10:26 PM
Independent Voter said...: Hipp - of course the Democrats in Floride acquiesced to moving the primary up.....watch this.; May 21, 2008 10:32 PM
Yousri said...: Popular Votes Update - New

As of 5/21/2008 9:30 PM including KY and 94% of OR; and using the most accurate and official results from Green Papers; the popular votes count as follows:

Sen. Obama - 16,694,331
Sen. Clinton - 16,232,984

Sen. Obama leads with - 461,347

These numbers are the ones recognized by DNC and most major news networks.

Note: According to the Current Official DNC Rules; Florida and Michigan are excluded..

However, remember that popular vote does not decide the nominee; ”Delegates Count” does.

This comment is meant for update only; not to start a debate.

If these numbers are not to your liking; feel free to go to any web site and use any numbers that make you feel happy!; May 21, 2008 10:32 PM
Independent Voter said...: Oops, Florida - I really need to proof my posts.; May 21, 2008 10:32 PM
Hippolytus said...: Larry Parker said...

"Yet another Hillary Clinton lie comes out. Remember when the Clinton camp said that they received $10 million in contrubutions in the 24 hours after the April 22 Pennsylvania Primary? Well here is that proof that they were short of that by $8,300,000"
________

The Clintons and financial irregularity? I'm shocked, shocked, I tell you!; May 21, 2008 10:33 PM
suzihussein22 said...: Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080522/ap_on_re_us/military_gays;_ylt=AnsGdykdrdaQLxQjBwnyIe1H2ocA

Will this happen though if we let McCain in to appoint ultra-conservative Justices? If I had been an HRC supporter, I would rather vote against McCain, than vote against Obama.; May 21, 2008 10:33 PM
billyjay66 said...: countjellybean

You are right on the money. Keep on counting Yamaha.

Continue to ignore the vote counts of Iowa, Washington, Nevada, and Maine. Maybe a 110,000 vote margin for Obama but results were not released so ignore it. All it proves is that there is not a countable popular vote!

Continue to allow Hillary 328,000 to 0 margin in Michigan the 291,086 that didn't vote for her? By all means don't count them! Its the only way you can rationalize a majority.

There truly is a popular vote majority for Hillary it lies (emphasize lies) in the mind of Hillary.; May 21, 2008 10:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Yam said:
"pablo:

Sorry that I cannot convince that BHO is a bleeding FAR LEFT Liberal. Believe me, most people will atleast say that Hillary is Right of BHO."

All it takes is facts. I'm reasonablly open to persuasion. I am a recovering former Hillary supporter after all.

Your calling all the non-Hillary supporters lemmings and morons just weren't enough I guess.; May 21, 2008 10:34 PM
November Politics said...: "PR would be another blowout as WV in KY.

MT and SD will be for BHO but very narrowly."

Your "Math" and this statement of yours don't add up (pardon the pun). With Sen. Obama winning MT and SD, Sen. Clinton cannot win according to your own math.; May 21, 2008 10:36 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: Hippolytus,

In Florida, four Democratic party Representatives sat on the committee considering the bill that included the provision to move the primary dates. The committee vote was unanimous in moving the bill to the floor. The bill eventually passed the Florida House with two "Nay" votes being cast, both of those Nays coming from Republicans.

The bill was sent to the state Senate. The bill passed the Florida Senate with no "Nay" votes.

Now tell me that the Democratic party members of the Florida state legislature did ANYTHING, let alone EVERYTHING, in their control to ensure the primary was held within the rules set by the DNC.

By the way, the Republican National Committee set the same dates for primaries and caucuses, and Florida and Michigan were penalized because they violated the window for "First Determining Step" of the delegate selection process.

Strange that we're not hearing an uproar from certain Yammering quarters about those voters being 'neglected' or whatever the Hellery term of the day is for Democratic voters in Florida and Michigan. Can we presume that the Republican voters in those states will be so disgusted about being penalized they will vote for the Democratic nominee?

Mike; May 21, 2008 10:38 PM
Hippolytus said...: Mike in Maryland,
Precisely! At the risk of repeating myself, I just don't understand why specific politicians are not being called out on this. It would seem to be a natural (and interesting) subject for investigative journalism.; May 21, 2008 10:47 PM
suzihussein22 said...: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/21/obama-willing-to-%e2%80%98go-more-than-halfway%e2%80%99-on-fl-mi/; May 21, 2008 10:52 PM
Vicki in Seattle said...: 'elp! 'elp! I'm being disenfranchised!

(apologies to Monty Python)

Is HRC attempting to discount the votes of caucus states, such as my own? (Washington)

Is that so? And here I thought I was going off to visit with neighbors and express my opinion on who I thought should be the Democratic nonminee. silly me! I was being coerced by my friends and neighbors!!

GO OBAMA!!!

PS - if you are rambling/shouting and just spewing venom, I'm not listening. you are talking to yourself, not to me.; May 21, 2008 10:59 PM
suzihussein22 said...: In the spirit of transparency:

http://www.livescience.com/history/080521-presidential-medical-records.html; May 21, 2008 11:14 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

As of this minute, as per Left Last Box of DCW, there are 90 + 241 = 331 to be divided by June 30.

Hillary needs 240 of this 331.

1973 + 240 = 2213, a few more than 2210 the Real Hurdle.

This is quite doable. Because PR will be a blowout, and MT and SD will be very close for her.

Most of the BHO SD supporters have already moved to the Suicidal Sect!

Most of the remaining 241 SDs, I believe, are HRC leaners.

Therefore, just wait till the end of June. She will have the most TDs and most of Popular Votes.

This will give her the Nomination.

:-); May 21, 2008 11:18 PM
billyjay66 said...: vicki

Thanks for speaking about for the "silent majority"! I'm also from a caucus state. Obama's margin of 55,000 in caucus states that released their votes corresponds to about 625,000 - the majority needed in voters if those were primary elections. Using "back-at-you-math" with more logic than rationalization the vote margin could approach 1 million. But we don't need that to win.; May 21, 2008 11:19 PM
Yamaka said...: billy:

Realclearpolitics.com gives estimates of the four caucuses. Go to line 5 and 6 of the Popular Vote page. The popular vote margin for Hillary is 63K to 173 K.

The Uncommitted vote in MI needs to stand as it is because BHO did not want the votes. Voters voted as Uncommitted. That was BHOs decision and voters verdict. We cannot do anything about it.

As of this minute, Hillary has the most votes polled so far, which makes her the Majority Candidate, which the undeclared SDs will definitely make a note of it.

Cheer, Smile and Vote for Hillary.
:-); May 21, 2008 11:26 PM
Richard said...: Oregon Dem and anyone who has expressed interest in keeping in contact post-concession:

I have purchased a domain and created a forum at democraticelections.org which will be open to anyone wishing to discuss democratic elections with like-minded individuals. Hopefully it will eventually attract new members and expand discussion into state and local elections as well.

Anyone who wants, please feel free to sign up (and if you use a different name than you do here, please drop me a pm to tell me who you are!). Suggestions, comments, criticisms, etc. are of course welcome.

Please Note: This is not intended in any way to steal traffic from DCW, it is merely an attempt to give us a way to keep in touch going forward. I will certainly still be reading and posting here.; May 21, 2008 11:27 PM
tmess2 said...: If you are going to count Michigan for popular vote, you have to do two things if you want to be fair in your count.

First, you have to account for the uncommitted vote in Michigan. Only in Michigan did uncommitted exceed 5% of the vote. As there were only two candidates still running (Edwards and Obama) who were not on the ballot, a fair count would split at least 200,000 between the two of them with more of those votes going to Obama.

Second, if you count Michigan and Florida, you also have to count the primary in Washington (and will have to do the same for next week's primary in Idaho) which were just as valid and just as authorized as the primaries in Michigan and Florida. Obama won that primary by 38,000.

If you estimate Obama with at least 120,000 voters in Michigan (a very conservative understimate based on exit polling) and count the votes in Washington (since all votes should be counted, Obama leads the popular vote.

If you don't want to count the vote in Washington, don't say that all votes should be counted because you don't really mean it.; May 21, 2008 11:34 PM
billyjay66 said...: yamaha

Realclearpolitics.com Line 1 states current status of all contests that have happened. Obama as you can see leads by 450K. the rest is for what might be.

I will vote for Hillary - when I see her name is on the ticket. Vote for the democratic POTUS in '08!; May 21, 2008 11:42 PM
Yamaka said...: "Line 1 states current status of all contests that have happened. "

Not all contests.

To get to ALL contest so far you need to go to lines 5 and 6.

Hillary got a total of 17,639,952 votes from ALL polled. This is 63K more than that of BHO.

If you want to exclude MI and FL it's your problem.

I am interested in ALL votes polled.

In MI, BHO did not want their votes, he removed it along with 3 others. Four others left their names, one of them was HRC.
Removing the name from the ballot was BHO's strategy and decision.

Voters wanted that to be Uncommitted because they did not want to vote for anybody on the ballot.

I expect PR will expand the PV lead by atleast 150 K for HRC, and SD MT will be essentially a wash.

Wait and see.; May 21, 2008 11:53 PM
Richard said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 11:57 PM
Mike in Maryland said...: tmess2,

And don't forget the beauty-contest vote in Nebraska on May 13!

Senator Obama received 45,952 votes, Senator Clinton received 43,357 votes.

Granted, the difference was only 2,595, but then again, we must ensure that EVERY VOTE COUNTS if we follow the Yammerings of a certain poster here.

Mike; May 21, 2008 11:59 PM
billyjay66 said...: yamaha

Realclearpolitics.com Line 1 - "POPULAR VOTE COUNT". The rest are estimates, asterisks and with's.

VOTE DEMOCRATIC '08; May 21, 2008 11:59 PM
Richard said...: Looking ahead to the general election, I think Barack Obama can get at minimum ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, MI, IL, WI, MN, IA, MO, WA, OR, CA, and HI. Those 21 states have a total of 270 EC votes, giving him a win without OH or FL.

I also think MT, CO, NM, NV and even OH are strong possibilities for Obama, and that he has an outside chance in VA and NC.; May 22, 2008 12:02 AM
tmess2 said...: I didn't include Nebraska's advisory primary because the caucus was a firehouse primary with an actual vote total. That would be giving some folks two votes.; May 22, 2008 12:08 AM
Yamaka said...: "I think Barack Obama can get at minimum ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, DE, MD, MI, IL, WI, MN, IA, MO, WA, OR, CA, and HI"

The only issue here is

BHO did not win the largest enchillada: NH MA NY NJ PA CA.

How can you Nominate him? HRC earned all the major EV States. She deserves the Nomination.

_______________________________

Folks:

My point is by June 4th Morning count ALL votes polled and judge who is the most Popular Candidate by votes cast by Americans.

I believe HRC will be with about 150K lead. She will be the Majority Candidate.

This should be a piece of information for the undeclared SDs to look at in Nominating the Candidate.; May 22, 2008 12:17 AM
Richard said...: BHO did not win the largest enchillada: NH MA NY NJ PA CA.

Primary victories have absolutely no bearing on general election viability. All of these states with the possible exception of NH will go to the democratic nominee no matter who he is. The idea that just because democrats in those states might have preferred a different Democratic candidate they will prefer a Republican is beyond ludicrous.; May 22, 2008 12:21 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: I wonder if the people that keep saying that Michigan (as is) should count know how FOOLISH they sound. And also how saying that just brings to the forefront how devious Hillary is.

When Obama and Edwards took their names off of the Michigan ballot Hillary was going to take her name off also but did not. When she was asked why she didn't she said basically "Oh well you know it really didn't matter that I left my name on the ballot because everyone knows that it IS NOT going to count." SHE KNEW THAT THE VOTES IN MICHIGAN WERE NOT GOING TO COUNT. Now that she is losing she will DO ANYTHING to twist the rules and SPIN her B.S. and bamboozle the American public!

And you call this honesty and integrity? NO!

No more Bush - No more Clintons

VOTE OBAMA '08
Democrats unite and take back the White House!; May 22, 2008 12:21 AM
Hillary Clinton said...: Yamaka, even I've given up. You should do the same. Start thinking about 2012 or how you're going to justify a vote for Senator Obama just so McCain won't continue the same failed policies of the last 4 years.

Please help me reunite the party and repair the damage I've done over the past 6 months.

Sincerely,
Senator Clinton

P.S. Don't forget to go to www.hillaryclinton.com and make a donation!; May 22, 2008 12:26 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yakama said: "She deserves the Nomination."
_______

No. No one 'deserves' the nomination. You must win it FAIR AND SQUARE by playing by the RULES of the DNC.

This is America and the voters decide. And so far according to the delegates awarded by Congressional Districts our nominee is Senator Obama.

We do not now or ever will have a Queen of the U.S.A.

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 22, 2008 12:28 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah you are just upset that Hillary should win it because she has the most votes.. Obama only has more delegates because the media bashed Hillary and obama was their golden boy. It sure wasn't because he has a thought himself or experience.[some but not much] Jean; May 22, 2008 12:37 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: JayW said: "I guess I kind of have a new respect...."
_______

JayW-
Are you still proud of your gal after she talks like that to a DCW board administrator?

LOL :); May 22, 2008 12:38 AM
suzihussein22 said...: Aunt Jean said...yousri you are full of it The Green Papers has CLINTON@ 17438488 and Obama@ 17281966. That is a difference of 156522 votes more for Hillary Clinton. You need glasses I guess Hillary Clinton our next POTUS

Did you really want to insult one of our hard-working contributors? Shame on who?; May 22, 2008 12:41 AM
Yamaka said...: "Primary victories have absolutely no bearing on general election viability"

The question is the Nomination is not over as yet.

No one has clinched the 2209.

That's the problem!

SDs can really vote only at the Convention, till then they are all Wobblers - can go back and forth.

Nomination process will be over
when BHO concedes to the Minority Candidate Status! Or wait till the Convention, before planning for GE.

:-(; May 22, 2008 12:42 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yousri-

Good evening :)

What a busy day ya'll had yesterday!

Kudos to everyone of ya'll that put so much hard work into making this website so wonderful ;)

After the nomination is secured and after the inauguration will ya'll still keep this website up and running?; May 22, 2008 12:44 AM
Independent Voter said...: Aunt Jean; May 22, 2008 12:47 AM
Yousri said...: Thank you Leah.

We hope to keep this site up and running past Nov. providing the best and accurate info to our readers.; May 22, 2008 12:47 AM
Kujo said...: I have to thank Yakama, Aunt Jean and the other Clinton supporters. Usually victory last only a brief moment. By having your input, we get to relive victory every day.

-gO Bama; May 22, 2008 12:47 AM
Yamaka said...: "No. No one 'deserves' the nomination."

By June 4th HRC will have 150 K more in Popular Vote. She will become the Majority Candidate.

This will force the SDs to conclude that she deserves the Nomination, and they will Nominate her.

Is this clear, now?

Any Nominee should deserve the Nomination. Pledged delegates cannot win the Nomination by simple Math and the Full Hurdle being 2209.

Is this clear, now?; May 22, 2008 12:48 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yousri-

You are welcome.

It is good to hear that the site will still be here.

Earlier today some of us were wondering where we'd go to stay in touch. So, now we can just stay here with You and Oreo and Matt and everyone else ;); May 22, 2008 12:51 AM
Yamaka said...: "You can accept or not not, that's your right. But don't satrt with your BS."

Is this not a bit rude?

I thought the Administrator is a neutral person!

Maybe, I am wrong! What do I know?; May 22, 2008 12:52 AM
Richard said...: Yamaka: I am not talking about the nomination, as I believe that is already beyond question. I now wish to discuss our presumptive nominee's path to general election victory. If you do not wish to join me in this discussion, that is up to you; please do not try to dictate to me what I can and cannot write about, however.; May 22, 2008 12:54 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yamaka said: "Is this clear, now?"
___

No it is not clear to me.

Your logic is about as clear to me as 'mud'.

The majority of SDs are not going to go running to Hillary. It isn't happening now, it hasn't been happening the past few months, and I believe it will not happen in the future.

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 22, 2008 12:55 AM
Yamaka said...: hillary imi:

Hilarious.

Cheer, Smile and Vote for Hillary.

Get ready with your pitchfork and kitchen sink to go to Denver, in case the Nomination is stolen by the Minority Candidate!

SDs: Dare not Nominating a Minority Candidate! If you do, then Hillary will walk out of the Convention, and 1980 will repeat itself!

Do you know what that means? Disaster for the Party!!

Cheer and Smile for Hillary!; May 22, 2008 12:58 AM
Richard said...: Your logic is about as clear to me as 'mud'.

Yamaka's logic does not resemble our "earth" logic.; May 22, 2008 1:00 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Richard said: "I now wish to discuss our presumptive nominee's path to general election victory."
_________

Now that is something I excited thinking about.

I think we are going to see all sorts of different things happening in the race between Obama and McCain.

I liked Obama's idea of him and McCain having townhall's together. I think that having them both on the stage at the same time, as much as possible, will just make Obama look better and better each time ;)

And I can barely wait for the scheduled debates between Obama and McCain. I think the gloves will really come off then when Obama is up against a Republican as opposed to someone in his same party.

I do believe that Senator Obama will still fight fair and with grace but he will be fighting much stronger when he is up against Senator McCain.

.; May 22, 2008 1:02 AM
Independent Voter said...: Yam....

What does 1 + 1 = ?

I'm just curious if you know how to do even the most basic of math problems. Because evidently you can't see that your math is nothing but circular reasoning which is FALLACIOUS reasoning.

This one applies to you too!; May 22, 2008 1:05 AM
Yamaka said...: "I believe it will not happen in the future."

There are still 9 Ed's Ds and 241 SDs undeclared left (Left Last Box)

All those Minority Candidate supporters have all gone to the Suicidal Sect.

The vast majority left are meant for the Majority Candidate! They will move soon after June 3rd.

Is this clear, now?

Recite this 100 times a minute:
"OOssambbamama....Oommmbbassama"
to get the mind clear!

Now it is beyond simple logic!!

:-( :-(; May 22, 2008 1:05 AM
Aunt Jean said...: tmess2 you said that obama and edwards was the only two that took their name off Michigan. YOU ARE WRONG. obama, edwards, richardson, and biden. So you need to refigure. Here is the link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/11/AR2007101100859_pf.html

Jean; May 22, 2008 1:06 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yakama said: "left (Left Last Box)"
_____

The fact that the box you always refer to is 'LAST' should give you a clue that it is the 'least' important.

The FIRST box is the only box that represents the numbers that count NOW under the current DNC rules.

Obama '08; May 22, 2008 1:09 AM
Richard said...: Aunt Jean said tmess2 you said that obama and edwards was the only two that took their name off Michigan. YOU ARE WRONG.

Actually, what he said was that Obama and Edwards were the only two candidates still running at the time of the Michigan election whose names were not on the ballot. He is not wrong about that at all, and one might well say that you are 'wrong' for being unable to comprehend a simple blog post.

Also, please don't shout. It's impolite.; May 22, 2008 1:11 AM
Independent Voter said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 1:11 AM
Bob in Vancouver said...: OMG, I thank my lucky stars that the DNC Rules Committed will not have to listen to the illogical Yamerings of some of the blogs posted here in the last few days.

No one is going to be able to BS the Rules Committee on who and who doesn't have the majority of the popular vote and why the vote is incomplete (caucuses and MI).

I trust the Rules Committee. They are fully aware of the background and agreements. Both sides will be properly represented by lawyers I'm sure.

If it doesn't go the way Hillary wants it, too bad. She can turn blue, stomp her feet and threaten to take it to the Convesntion all she wants.; May 22, 2008 1:12 AM
Independent Voter said...: WOW! Great NEWS!

Federal court rules against military gays policy

SEATTLE - The military cannot automatically discharge people because they're gay, a federal appeals court ruled Wednesday in the case of a decorated flight nurse who sued the Air Force over her dismissal.; May 22, 2008 1:13 AM
tmess2 said...: Aunt Jean, with all due respects, please read what I posted, I said that the only two candidates left in the race who weren't on the ballot in Michigan were Edwards and Obama.

Richardson and Biden had withdrawn from the race prior to the primary in Michigan.; May 22, 2008 1:15 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave that is great news. Jean; May 22, 2008 1:17 AM
apissedant said...: I wonder if the silly Hillary supporters who claim Hillary won Michigan, and that Obama cannot win Michigan, have actually looked at the Michigan battleground polling on realclearpolitics.com. Of the 4 polls listed, Obama leads McCain in 3. At the same time, Clinton is tied in 2, and losing in two. So please explain to me, why should we give her 360,000 votes and give Obama 0? How is she, "the candidate that can beat McCain in November," if she cannot even win a blue state like Michigan?; May 22, 2008 1:17 AM
tmess2 said...: Now that we have two days to sit back and wait for unpledged delegates, a little bit of speculation about this upcoming weekend.

Last weekend, Nevada held its State Convention. Approximately 300 Hillary delegates who had run for delegate slots in Clark County barely four weeks before no longer cared enough to make the trip to Reno resulting in Obama picking up a delegate at Clinton's expense.

This weekend, you have the state convention in Alaska (with all 13 delegates at stake -- Obama currently projected to get 9 to Clinton's 4) and the state convention in Wyoming where the 3 at-large and 2 PLEO delegates are also at stake.

In either state, will we see a repeat of the no-show of a large number of Clinton delegates, resulting in a swing of national convention delegates to Obama?; May 22, 2008 1:19 AM
Aunt Jean said...: tmess2 I guess the washington post [I believe that was who that link was] is lying but you wouldn't do that or be mistaken. Sorry Richardson and Bidon was on there also. Jean; May 22, 2008 1:20 AM
Independent Voter said...: Thanks jean, it is great news. It's too late for me to rejoin, but still it is excellent news. It looks as though if the government is going to have to prove on an individual basis that there was a detriment to unit cohesion, they may scrap DADT altogether.; May 22, 2008 1:24 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Here's a link to an article that says who is on the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee that will be deciding on MI and FL:

http://tinyurl.com/4kxv6r

and it says who is supporting who and who is uncommitted.

P.S. McCain is supposed to be releasing his medical records on Friday.

.; May 22, 2008 1:26 AM
Kujo said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 1:26 AM
suzihussein22 said...: issue alert-energy-

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4888310&page=1

Small steps are good.

Yep, independent voter, I had posted a link about that @ 10:33. It would be hard to keep that from being overturned if McCain gets to appoint Justices. I don't think this will be one of the big issues for the GE, but hopefully we can keep this in mind in November.; May 22, 2008 1:29 AM
Richard said...: Aunt Jean, Biden withdrew on January 4 and Richardson on January 10. Michigan held its primary on January 15. tmess2 is therefore correct that of the people still in the race at the time of the Michigan Primary, only Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot.

Why can't you get it through your head that he did not say that they were the only ones who took their names off the ballot, but that they were the only ones still in the race who did so?; May 22, 2008 1:31 AM
Kujo said...: Top 10 Clintonisms:

10 - He is not qualified to be Pres, but he is qualified for VP.

9 - After seeing the error in the logic of #10, He could be taught what he needs to know by Denver.

8 - In the White House, the saying was if it was too dangerous for the president, send the first lady.

7 - McCain will tear up Obama because he is an elitist. Hmmm but he will do nothing about you pretending to fly into sniper fire.

6 - If we used the electoral vote count instead, then we win.

5 - I did not agree to not count FL or MI, just not to campain there.

4 - Only the Big states count.... (if they voted for me.)

3 - I am more electable (while down 8 points in the national polls.)

2 - Obama can not beat McCain so you should vote for me (who can not beat Obama)

1 - We can not disenfranchise any voter, all votes must count. While at the same time: Pledged delegates do not really have to vote for who the people voted for.; May 22, 2008 1:31 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Independent voter-
It is great news.
I really look forward to the day in America when ALL people are treated equally no matter their color, gender, sexual preference, religion, age, physical handicaps, or political beliefs.

And as soon as we get Obama into the White House then the chance of that day coming sooner than later will be within reach ;); May 22, 2008 1:32 AM
Aunt Jean said...: tmess2 so I was wrong never said I was perfect.the link said that they pulled their name off too.So why would they pull their name off if they had already dropped out.But their name would have still been on it.Why was Edwards name on Ky. he bailed out awhile ago. Jean; May 22, 2008 1:33 AM
Independent Voter said...: ss - sorry I must have skipped right over it (you yam was yapping).

Thanks for posting it.; May 22, 2008 1:34 AM
Aunt Jean said...: TO EVERYONE there is someone on here that says one thing and means anough. They say that everyone should be treated equally they really don't believe this unless you think like them. What a joker. Jean; May 22, 2008 1:36 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Kujo-

Great list!

You should send it to David Letterman or Jon Stewart ;)

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 22, 2008 1:38 AM
Richard said...: Aunt Jean, it is very annoying that you persist in misusing the word "enough" despite repeatedly being corrected. Why should anyone care what you have to say if you don't care enough to say it correctly? For the umpteenth time, the word you are looking for is "another."; May 22, 2008 1:39 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Richard I understand where you are coming from. But their name would have still been on the ballot [even though they were not running] and would have received some votes just like Edwards name was still on the ballot in KY which I really don't understand. Jean; May 22, 2008 1:40 AM
Independent Voter said...: Leah Wrote: It is great news.
I really look forward to the day in America when ALL people are treated equally no matter their color, gender, sexual preference, religion, age, physical handicaps, or political beliefs.

And as soon as we get Obama into the White House then the chance of that day coming sooner than later will be within reach ;)

---------

Very TRUE! I also think the sooner Democrats can get a 2/3 majority in Congress the better off we will be. Hopefully Republicans lose a lot of seats in November.

I think it is very possible because the states that are afraid of gays getting married have already passed marriage amendments in 2004 - so their turnout will more than likely be quite low.; May 22, 2008 1:42 AM
Kujo said...: Leah

Thanks

gOBAMA; May 22, 2008 1:44 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 1:45 AM
Anonymous said...: Yam,

Your version, as well as everyone elseshere count of the Popular Vote is TOTAL B.S.

Not one of them includes the 7 vote drubbing Obama handed Hillary in Guam.

Please go to RCP and suggest a line 7 immediately. Thanks. :); May 22, 2008 1:47 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Independent voter-

The one thing I've heard alot about from Obama is him working to get other Democrats in office. Hillary might be also but I have not heard much on the subject from her.

I think Obama has a plan on a 'grand scale' to get as many democrats seated in the Senate and House in order that he will be able to get all of his other plans passed into law as soon as possible.

I think we are going to be seeing some 'real' changes coming to America starting in January 2009 :)

.; May 22, 2008 1:47 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Richard are you not a frigging yankee don't correct my frigging spelling you DS.I just misspelled the frigging word DS like no one else does[yeah right] show some frigging respect you SA. If you don't like my spelling DON"T READ MY POSTS AH Jean; May 22, 2008 1:48 AM
Independent Voter said...: leah, thinking back, you are very correct. I don't really recall her talking too much about electing more Democrats to Congress, a least not to the extent that Obama has.; May 22, 2008 1:52 AM
Richard said...: My my, Aunt Jean, you are a bit testy. The fact is that you have been writing "enough" on here instead of "another" for weeks. That is not a simple misspelling, but misuse of a word. I certainly can understand such an error once or twice, but persisting in the error after being corrected and offering abuse to everyone who attempts to help you express your ideas more intelligibly I cannot understand.

I am not sure what my geographic location has to do with it. I don't believe "another" is subject to regional spelling variants in American English.; May 22, 2008 1:56 AM
Ariane said...: Anyone saying that African Americans are being racist for voting for Obama, just voting because of his race and not taking other factors into it....

Can you please explain why these same voters voted for Senator Kay Hagan (A white woman) instead of Jim Neal (a black man) in the recent North Carolina primary?

Can you explain how in 2004 John Edwards got more of the black vote in SC than Al Sharpton? (I think Sharpton only got under 20% of the Black vote.) have read this and don't know the exact percent, but Sharpton only got 10% of the state overall, and Black voters made up about half of the Democrats, so he could n't have got more than about 20% of the Black voters.

I would like to hear how those fit into the claim that Black folk just vote for Black candidates based on race.

I'm not saying it has NO role -- sure there are people who are influenced because of pride at the idea of a President who is part African just as women are influenced by the idea of finally having a female president. But it is clear from the above examples and others that AA voters are not so shallow to vote for any candidate who shares their race.; May 22, 2008 2:02 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Michigan held it's UNAUTHORIZED early primary on January 15.

Here's something I found after doing a Google Search:

Press Release
For Immediate Release: 01/10/2008
Governor Bill Richardson Withdraws from Democratic Presidential Race
http://www.richardsonforpresident.com/newsroom/pressreleases?id=0441
http://tinyurl.com/62q2d7

And if you don't want to check it out, the link is to the Richardson for President web site.

And doing a different Google search, I found the following:

Breaking News
Posted on Thu, Jan. 3, 2008
Dodd and Biden withdraw from presidential race
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/13029607.html
http://tinyurl.com/5mbxzw

If you don't want to see the entire article, it's from Philly.com, the web site of the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Philadelphia Daily News.

Thus, Biden and Richardson were on the Michigan ballot, but had withdrawn prior to the election.

That would be similar to Maryland, where the election was held on February 12, and the ballot had:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Biden
Richardson
Kucinich
Gravel
Dodd

in the above order of finish. 'Undecided' (whoever that is - VBG) was in third place.

Being on the ballot does not mean that you are still in the race, and thus would receive any delegates that might have accrued to you.

It would be good if some of the people would do a bit of research, and make sure the research confirms the point you are making, prior to posting. Otherwise you just confirm the impression many already have of you.

Mike; May 22, 2008 2:04 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 2:04 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 2:05 AM
Aunt Jean said...: mike was I was referring to is that they would have gotten votes DS.Would they have not? Just like Edwards got votes in KY but was out of the race. Jean; May 22, 2008 2:07 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Mike -

We heard you the first time ;); May 22, 2008 2:09 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: I normally watch Chris Matthews, Olberman, and Abrahms on MSNBC but missed most of them tonight.

Did any of them bring up the issue of Hillary only raising $2,000,000 after her April 22/23 win and NOT the $10,000,000 like she claimed back then.

I know that the fund raising figures have just been recently released and I was wondering if the media has called her on it yet.

(Post has been edited to correct errors.); May 22, 2008 2:13 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
But their name would have still been on the ballot [even though they were not running] and would have received some votes just like Edwards name was still on the ballot in KY which I really don't understand.

If you did some RESEARCH, or have some political KNOWLEDGE, you would understand that in some states, you have a certain time period in which to withdraw your name from the ballot. If you don't withdraw your name in a certain time period, your name remains on the ballot.

Senator Edwards suspended his campaign, but did NOT withdraw from the race until the day AFTER West Virginia, when he endorsed Senator Obama. That is why his name was on the West Virginia ballot, and why his name was on the Kentucky ballot.

There is a difference between suspending a campaign, and withdrawing from the campaign. One means you can pick up the campaign at a later date if circumstances change or permit. The other means that you pull your name from the race, and do not plan to reenter under almost any circumstance.

Now practice this:
Suspend means 'time-out'
Withdraw means 'I drop out'

Mike; May 22, 2008 2:15 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike also I really don't give a rat a what impression Obama lovers have of me. It's like a fly on a gnats a.I already know by this blog that there are some real doodles on this blog [not all just some]. We were talking about votes not delegates emess2 is the one that brought up PD's not me.I was still talking about votes. Jean; May 22, 2008 2:15 AM
Random said...: greetings,
welp, this is my first year following politics, and will probably be my last.

im just curious why everyone seems to be so clueless as to Clintons goal? its very ovious she is stretching for a convention fight.

she has SAID repeatedly that she is not going to quit on the 3rd, she is not going to quit until someone reaches 2210, and she will go to the convention to "fight" for FL and MI.

nothing will be resolved on the 31st, because the Clintons will appeal, and we will see you in Aug in Denver, and give McCain a probable win for Nov.

we are a country who is on the edge of a very dark path. ONE woman now holds the destiny of an entire country in hostage, because a few hundred elected officals wont stand the gap.

so many millions of new voters... and we are already burnt out before the 1st election. its shameful at the very best!; May 22, 2008 2:23 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike edwards suspended his campaign on Jan. 31 st here is the link;

http://onegoodmove.org/1gm/1gmarchive/2008/01/why_john_edward.html or here

http://sharoncobb.blogspot.com/2008/01/john-edwards-suspends-his-campaign-here.html

Now explain why his name was on KY and didn't you say WV ballots; May 22, 2008 2:27 AM
Aunt Jean said...: vixx NO IT'S A SHAME THAT LIES AND THE MEDIA ARE WHY WE ARE WHERE WE ARE. IF YOU ARE GOING TO BLAME SOMEONE BLAME THEM.ALL THE BASHING OF HILLARY IS SICKENING!! IT'S STILL GOING ON TOO. WHILE THERE ARE STILL SO MANY THINGS THAT HAVE NOT COME OUT ABOUT OBAMA. JEAN; May 22, 2008 2:31 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Vixx said: "im just curious why everyone seems to be so clueless as to Clintons goal? its very ovious she is stretching for a convention fight."
___________

Vixx-

I think most people know that Hillary is threatening to head to the convention with her fight. It's been in the news online and on many blogs and we have talked about it today here on this thread.

If she doesn't get her way this year then she will be gearing up for 2012.

I for one wish that she would have bowed out gracefully when she had a chance when she realized it was mathematically impossible for her to win .. and then she could have helped to unite the party - but sadly that did not happen - so now we have to put up with her and Ferraro going around talking about this bogus sexism issue ;(

Come on women of America UNITE and support our next Present of the UNITED States of America - Obama '08
.; May 22, 2008 2:32 AM
tmess2 said...: If someone wants to give Biden, Richardson, and uncommitted some credit for a "normal" vote in Michigan:

outside of Michigan, uncommitted best result was 2.6% of the vote

outside of Michigan, Biden's best result was 3% of the vote (in his home state of Delaware)

outside of Michigan, Richardson's best result was 4.6% of the vote.

In other words, a generous estimate of the actual vote for Biden, Richardson, and uncommitted would be around 10% of the vote or 60,000.

That leaves 180,000 to be divided between Obama and Edwards. Edwards finished behind Obama in every state and, in his worst states (Arkansas, West Virginia, and Kentucky), Obama still got over 25% of the vote. Exit polls from Michigan indicate that Obama would have gotten around 30% of the vote if he had been on the ballot (in other words somewhere between 120,000 and 180,000).

The bottom line is that Obama supporters in Michigan were told by the Democratic party that they could register that support by voting for uncommitted and that they would not be allowed to write-in Obama's name. Therefore, if you are wanting to count votes from Michigan in the interest of letting everyone's voice be heard (instead of merely as a political bludgeon for a bogus claim), you have to allocate a good part of the uncommitted vote to Obama.; May 22, 2008 2:33 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
. . . DS . . . DS . . . SA . . . AH . . . .

Let's see:

DS is:
'Deputy Sheriff'?
'Doctor of Science'?
'Dal Segno (Latin: From the Sign)'?

SA is:
'System Administrator'?
'Special Agent'?
'Senior Advisor'?

AH is:
'Ad Honorem (Latin: in honor of, epigraphy)'?
'Advanced Higher (the English translation of the Spanish and German words meaning higher education [college])?
'Ad Honorem (Latin: in honor of, epigraphy)?

Richard - Seems as those are titles of at least somewhat honorific. I think Auntie Jean needs to be a little more specific the next time she tries to congratulate you.

VBG

Mike; May 22, 2008 2:34 AM
Aunt Jean said...: LEAH YOU KNOW GOOD AND WELL THAT IT IS A SEXISM AND A RACE ISSUE RACE. DON'T TRY AND BS A BS ER. Ferrero has a right to feel the way she does because of the way they treated her and you know it but of course like everything else you won't admit it. Jean; May 22, 2008 2:37 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Mike I know that you know what they meant!!! Jean; May 22, 2008 2:38 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: Aunt Jean said...
Mike I know that you know what they meant!!!

And this is coming from the person who stated that people should be careful about their language? That people should not swear?

Auntie Jean,

Most DECENT people who don't swear don't even use the initials of the swear words. It is considered quite uncouth.

Go to the dictionary, look up the word hypocrite, and I'm sure you will see, alongside the definition, a picture of yourself as an example of the word.

Mike; May 22, 2008 2:45 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Sto ridendo molto adesso perché ancora sta comunicando con me ed io non ho detto una parola a lei in più di quattro giorni. Incredibile!

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 22, 2008 2:53 AM
Yousri said...: FYI:

The sidebar tables have been updated.; May 22, 2008 2:54 AM
Martin said...: (I posted this earlier, but it ended up on the bottom of the page, and it bears repeating.)

People, please... just stop trying to reason with Yamaka and Aunt Jean. These two are clearly fanatical Hillary supporters who will never see the light, will never admit they're wrong, and will never support Obama because they only have hate in their hearts. They twist truth in whatever despicable ways they can think, they consistently fall back on racist rhetoric and thinly-veiled bigotry, they ignore all basic standards of logic, they use inflammatory language and empty catchphrases. They're hopeless trolls and liars, and not very bright. Let them rant and rave and spew their meaningless nonsense till the cows come home. Their arguments will convince no one, they will only reinforce each other's close-minded beliefs.

The rest of us all know they are laughable, foolish people. Don't waste your time on them.; May 22, 2008 3:07 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Obama is going to Hawaii sometime in the future to visit the grave of his grandfather in the veteran's cemetery.

Here is the article and a VERY CUTE photo of him as a little boy with his grandfather:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/21/obama-to-visit-grave-of-g_n_103001.html

Now we know where he gets his looks from - his Mother's Father!

.; May 22, 2008 3:08 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yousri-
Thanks for the heads up on the updated numbers.
I thought there would be alot more SDs coming out today than there were.

Tomorrow is another day ;); May 22, 2008 3:11 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: So after all is said and done about Kentucky and Oregon - Hillary came out with a net of 15 pledged delegates.

Clinton
Kentucky 37
Oregon 22
Total 59

Obama
Kentucky 14
Oregon 30
Total 44

Clinton's net = +15

Now we just need 3 good days of SD endorsements and we will can make that up easy ;); May 22, 2008 3:29 AM
Random said...: does anyone know if there is a list of emails of the uncommited SDs? ive seen a few lists of names, but not emails.

my thinking at this point is Clinton wants to quietly float past Jun 3rd, soas to continue the SD fight behind closed doors.

it might already be too late, but with a list of emails listed on a site like this, people, including myself, could start asking (begging) the remaing SDs to VOTE like the rest of us did.

if all the SDs voted NOW, then we could pick the nominee now and actually have a good chance at taking the WH and restoring some sanity to our nation.; May 22, 2008 3:30 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Here is a link to a REALLY GOOD article...

Why the Long Primary Battle with Clinton Will Actually Help Obama Win in November

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/why-the-long-primary-batt_b_102848.html

http://tinyurl.com/4zfuqr

.

p.s. To Vixx - I have seen long lists of emails for SuperDelegates before but I can't remember where, it might have been in the comments section on Hillary's website but I am not positive. I think the SDs already know how they will vote so I don't think that bombarding them with emails will do any good at this point.; May 22, 2008 4:02 AM
Peter said...: New poll from Florida today. Clinton 6 points ahead, improvement by 3. Obama 10 points behind, improvement by 5. I`ve seen several polls from FL and I think 8-10% margin for McCain could be the case at the moment, but there are several factors in play, most of them will weaken or dissapear before the GE.

First of all Obama is doing worse than Clinton amoung registred democrats. I`ve seen recent polls from several important states, some where Obama does better (New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado etc) and some where Clinton does better (Ohio and Florida) and this effect is present in most states. I don`t think that is a realistic scenario, some polls have Obama just getting between 75-80 of democrats, I think he will improve her. The main reason is the "frustration"-effect, Clinton-voters who say they will vote McCain now because they are frustrated because of Clintons loss, I think this effect will weaken, specially if polls continue show Obama outperforming Clinton with double digits nationally. But this effect will have some hold as long as Clinton is in the race, she is the person who can do the most to weaken this effect, she needs to lose in a good way. I think she can, but she is stubborn and will wait until FL/MI is seated and Obama actually have the majority of the total delegates.

Another effect is the "frontrunner"-effect. Clinton has avoided attacks from both McCain and Obama in the last month or so. Obama is eager to unite the party and is avoiding direct confrontation with Clinton, McCain don`t care about Clinton because he knows she won`t compete this fall. This means Clinton is free from a lot of negative attacks, including "kitchen sink" stuff. McCain-camp wouldn`t hesitate one minute if Clinton was the nominee, they have a lot of "garbage" on her, but they have been saving it. This means Clinton is overperforming a bit in a lot of polls, because she is free from attacks.

"The delegate effect". Clinton has used a strategy where she claims Obama is against MI/FL being seated, some voters believe this nonesense. I think some voters are sceptical towards Obama because of this. A quick solution will probably been in place in the next 10 days and I think this effect will weaken fast. Obama-camp saying that they are ready to make a compromize is a start.

Obama hasn`t campaigned here. Obama does better when i campaigns in states, people get to know him,they can see him etc. This as A LOT to say. Obama not being able to campaign here is a significant factor regarding his weak polling. He is spending time here know and he will probably campaign here a lot. I think he will pick up a couple of points just because of this visit. This effect could easily be solved and Obama is the one who can solve this the best.

All in all, I think Clinton is "overperforming" in polls in several polls in several states at the moment. Obama is "underperforming" in polls in several states, specially in states where Clinton won. Obama is "underperforming" visibly in MI/FL. I think the situation would have been reversed if Clinton was the frontrunner. I think the healing has started and Obama has the right approach, but Florida will be tight, I think McCain is the favorite, but I don`t think it would be long befor Obama is withing low single digits in the poll. He polled bad against McCain in both PA and OH a month ago, states where Clinton won, but he is now tied with McCain in Ohio and has a clear lead in PA. I think FL and MI is quite similar, I think Obama could get a 5-10% lead in MI and FL got get tied in a month or so.

The perfect "momentum"-creator in Florida would be Al Gore endorsing there. That would take the sting out of Clintons "this is like 2000"-argument and would probably get Obama some support amoung older voters in FL.; May 22, 2008 5:17 AM
Peter said...: Obama leads McCain with ELEVEN points in a new poll. Yesterday he was EIGHT points ahead in a Zogby poll, now it is IBD/TIPP poll. Their April poll had them tied, but the difference is now 11 points, which is a huge lead. Clinton leads McCain with 5 points, April poll had her 7 points behind. So both candidates have stengthend their position significantly since April. The polls also had a "ticket" poll where Obama/Clinton didn`t gain any ground. McCain/Rice however did well, I suspect that he could choose her, but that would make it easy for Obama to use the Bush-argument.
Anyway, two polls showing Obama ahead with near 10% is good news, specially becuase of all the "turbulence" in this race. Both polls have also been released after Bush/McCain attacked Obama on the "appeasement" thing, it probably means Obama won first round heavily.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/pollpic052208.pdf; May 22, 2008 6:36 AM
Ariane said...: I need to correct misinformation from someone who said Trinity UCC is "exclusively black" That is NOT TRUE. It is in a larger heavily AFrican American neighborhood and yes the great majority of the congregation is Black, but there are some white members too and visitors of any race are warmly welcomed.
As I have written before, I have watched their services on TV for years and visited on multiple occasions, so I was fortunate to be innoculated against the hysterical media frenzy, and I know this church is NOT like some people imagine it based on very limited information.

Here is a post I wrote before on here where I gave some links where you could find out more. Arianes post & links re Trinity

One thing I don't get is why people don't seem to have a big problem with Italian-Americans or Polish-Americans or Swedish-Americans being proud of their ethnic heritage, or even having churches that are oriented toward their ethnic group (like our neighbor's church that was established by Polish immigrants and their descendents, has some of the masses in Polish, celebrates their cultural traditions and has connections with Catholic churches in Poland.

Yet people who don't seem to be bothered by those things are deeply disturbed, or angry or afraid, or all of the above, at African Americans having pride in THEIR heritage and culture.
Why do you think that is?; May 22, 2008 6:50 AM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Thanks Aunt Jean for confirming that Edwards was out of the race on 1/31/08. That means that only Clinton and Obama were still in the race when Mich was allowed to hold their primary according to DNC rules. Therefore Obama should get the majority if not all of the Uncommitted votes.

Mich has proposed a fair solution, why has Clinton rejected it?; May 22, 2008 7:33 AM
suzihussein22 said...: yoursi-Thank you for the updates.

Ariane-Great point! Doesn't everybody have something to overcome? I've read some of what TUCC does. My church does most of those same things. I haven't even tried to watch those edited nuggets that IMO were put out by the Rep. I've started reading about Winnie Mandela. Just imagine how much pride we would need to be that strong.; May 22, 2008 7:36 AM
GrantWoods said...: Hello from the Iowa heartland. Blue-collar, white, Christian here. I must say I'm feeling very disenfranchised lately, and I thought I'd come here for some help. I am an Edwards supporter who has been observing many of the various blogs, forums, and pundits, looking for the argument that will convince me to support either Clinton or Obama.

First, I understand that my vote has been cast. Still, I have the resources, both mentally(I hope!) and financially, to assist one of these candidates.

Sadly, most of the arguments I have read, including the vast majority made here, only serve to further alienate me. I understand the dynamic of passionate support. I comprehend the complexity of emotions that arise from having the two major hopeful nominees being from two historically oppressed groups. What I don't understand is the name-calling and overall degradation of the conversation.

Still, I am hoping that you can prove me wrong in my analysis by responding to three issues that are the crux of my inability to side with either possible nominee.

1. DNC rules and omitting voter participation.

First, to be clear, this is NOT an election for office. It is a nomination. For many years this was done by the party elite. Fairness in participation is NOT a necessary element in nominating a candidate for the election.

That said, I cannot see a path to victory without the inclusion of a fair consideration of FL and MI. I believe, with all of the complexities involved, a new election should be held in both states.

2. You can't change the rules at the end.

I know this argument seems to favor the Obama folk, but this ia a huge problem for any contest, whether it be a democratic election OR a nomination.

3. Do not use the "popular vote" argument and claim that voters might be disfranchised if you are not willing to FRANCHISE everyone.

Yes, that means Obama supporters in Michigan. Yes, that means Caucus goers, regardless if you think they are 'undemocratic'.

I know, I know, this you may think that I am leaning toward Obama right now, and from the content of this post you would probably be right.

Still, I have severe reservations about BOTH candidates...and, similarly, I have found aspects of both of them that I have come to admire.

Convince me. Convince each other. But please stop the slander. Thank you for your help in advance.

Whatever the case, we must stop McCain!!; May 22, 2008 7:41 AM
Peter said...: Re Emit

I think Clinton have rejected it, becuase such as solution (69-59) would put her 100% out of the race (she is 99% out now), it would also destroy her popular vote argument.
The exit polls from MI showed that Obama would have gained 35% of the votes if he was an the ballot, Clinton 46% and Edwards 12%. The actual results withouth Obama on the ballot was 55% for Clinton, 40% uncomitted. That means some of those who voted for Clinton would have voted for Obama or Edwards. In addition to this turnout was low and it is quite likely that more Obama and Edwards supporters stayed home than Clinton supporters, since only Clinton was on the ballot. That means MI could have gone either way, It is not 100% certain that Clinton would have won if all names where on the ballot.
That means if Clinton gets 69 and Obama 59 (which is a compromise) it still wouldn`t be an accurate representation of the voters view, Clinton wouldn`t have won that big. BUT, I think it is a solution where Obama-camp give a bit more than they should to get a solution. Clinton not accepting such a solution is more or less laughable, it is a solution that favours her more than what represents the will of the voters.

I think FL should be seated as is, that means the way people voted. Everyone was on the ballot here, and even though Obama was less known and couldn`t campaign it would be better to "seat as is". This would be an ok compromise and and an Ok solution. I think getting the delegates seated is probably more important at this point than getting a 100% fair solution. Any solution at this point would probably favour Clinton a bit more than it should, but that is ok, since Obama has such a huge lead in delegates.
I think it is more important to get the voters in MI and FL behind Obama than to "fight" over 10-20 delegates.

This is just about how the delegates are divided amoung the candidates. DNC is probably going to invoke at least a minimum punishment of a 50% cut in pledged delegates.

The net effect would probably something like 69-59/2 in Michigan, which means 34,5 for Clinton and 29,5 for Obama.
In Florida: 52,5 for Clinton, 34,5 for Obama and 5,5 for Edwards. The Edwards delegates (11 with half a vote) would probably more or less go to Obama. So if you add this Obama gets
29,5+34,5+5,5 for Obama=69,5
34,5+52,5 for Clinton= 87

This is the most likely solution and both parts should find this solution fair. It could be that Clinton gets a couple of more delegates from MI but not much and it wouldn`t matter. He would have won the pledged delegates majority and only ned something like 90-100 more delegates in total. I also think a lot of the uncomitted MI/FL supers will go for Obama in the end, I think most of them are waiting for a solution before they endorse. I have also heard some romours about frustration against Clinton from supers in MI who have endorsed her regarding her negativity against the 69-59 solution in MI. Remember that Clinton endorsers worked with the 69-59 solution, her rejecting it, would be like a stab in the back. So i don`t thin Clinton should push her luck to much, because she risk upsetting some of her supporters in MI which could mean that they switch sides, that would put Clinton in an extremly bad position.
I think Clinton will accept 69-59 or something similar, I don`t think she could say no in the end.; May 22, 2008 7:58 AM
ed iglehart said...: Grant,

Why don't you start by clarifying your reservations.

My reservations about HRC include the rule-changing behaviour, the kitchen sink tactics, the general demonstrated mendacity and the inability to smile convincingly.

My reservations about Obama include his support for continuing war in Afghanistan, where I prefer sponsoring schools and re-construction - as I have from the very beginning!
Also there is the matter of continued apparently unquestioning support for Israel

Otherwise, Obama said it the other night, "Some of you young people are inspired for the first time, and some of you not-so-young-people are inspired for the first time in a long time." Put me in the latter camp.

Salaam, etc.; May 22, 2008 8:01 AM
Peter said...: Re Grant

MI and FL represents a problem, not doubt about it. The votes casted in january dosen`t fairly represent the will of the voters. I think a revote probably would favour Obama significantly. A poll from Quinnipiac show Obama and Clinton tied in Florida with registered democrats. Clinton is outperforming against McCain compared to Obama, but that is not all that representative at this stage (because a solid amount of Clinton voters are frustrated and say they would vote McCain over Obama in the fall. This is something I think is a temporary effect).
I have also seen polls showing Obama AHEAD of Clinton in MI if they voted today.
So all in all I think Obama would perform MUCH better now than in January. So I am pretty sure that a revote would favour Obama, I think he would win MI and come close in FL (could even win).

The problem though, is that we are in late may. A revote is not an option anymore, it takes time, money etc. I don`t think a revote in August would be could for our chances in the fall at all. We should have a nominee long before that. If we don`t, we would have a situation where McCain could campaign in battleground states as the nominee in peace, we would risk our candidates attacking eachother like in PA and that would not be good.
And, a revote will most likely not change the situation, there is no way Clinton would get a amount of delegates that put here anywhere near Obamas amount, she is not that much more popular in MI and FL.

The problem was created by the politicans in FL and MI, they broke the rules. It is important to remember that this is NOT Clinton or Obamas fault, blaming them is wrong.
I do think however that Clinton is hiding behind a false argument of willing to "protect the voters" when she is just trying a last option to find a way to stay in the race.

I think the best solution at this point is for Obama-camp to say "Hey, let the delegates be seated. We accept Clinton getting 10-20 more delegates than she deserves because we think it is important that delegates from all states are seated".
Such a solution should come after may 31. and it would NOT change the dynamic of the race. Giving the delegates half a vote, would also be important because we need to show that people can`t break the rules without consequence. I do think however, that the superdelegates should be "punished" as well, because they where the ones who broke the rules...

A revote at this point, is way to late and could create serious problems for our chances.; May 22, 2008 8:20 AM
RobH said...: Superdelegate endorsements between now and 5/31:

I would not be surprised if we see these come to a screeching halt. I hope I'm wrong, but I fear it's a distinct possibility.

My reasoning has to do with my (generalized) opinion of the nature of the political participant who remains uncommited at this date.

If you've got political courage, you've probably demonstrated your conviction and let your position be known by now. If you don't have political courage you probably hope the decision will be made for you, and prefer your position be revealed (or more likely not) after the outcome is known.

IMO, anyone left uncounted at this moment, is probably frozen by the prospects of 5/31, and stands firmly in the latter camp.

And worse, I suspect a strong correlation between the character of the undecided's, and the candidate they support. Thus, I fear a high percentage of undecided superdelegates may be, in fact, Clinton leaners.; May 22, 2008 8:52 AM
RobH said...: And Peter,

Not to mention, that a revote, or any other special disposition for FL and MI at this point, would, in fact, make their outcomes "determinative", thereby actually REWARDING them for breaking the rules instead of punishing them.

No small deal.

For me, I wish the msm would beat the drum of the rabid disingenuousness of the the Clinton campaign's position viz a vis Terry McAuliffe's position on this issue when he was DNC chair. That is the poster child for political opportunism and hypocrisy, and it ought to be front and center.

I want to see Chris Matthews pin McAuliffe on that, in the manner that he nailed that talk show host on 'appeasement', and not let him squirm away.; May 22, 2008 9:02 AM
RobH said...: Leah,

Thanks for the link to the "Meet the RBC" article. Really informative.

They characterize the members as 13 Clinton supporters, 8 Obama supporters, 7 undecided, and 2 committee chairs forced neutral. My read on the undecideds is 5 pretty clear Obama leaners, 2 unknown.

That would make it 13:13, with 4 neutral or indeterminate.

Someone here said last night "I trust the RBC." Me, too, but it's close....; May 22, 2008 9:16 AM
UUbuntu said...: GrantWoods -- As the lone Clinton supporter here with a modicum of reason, I understand your quandary. I have made my arguments for Sen. Clinton's candidacy (and I encourage you to go there and comment on them), but at this point in time, her candidacy is essentially over. Her campaign is out of money and she has lost the pledged delegate race. This has been a disappointing primary outcome for me, but the fact is that Obama will almost certainly be the Democratic Party nominee and that McCain will almost certainly be the Republican Party nominee.

The race is now between McCain and Obama. There is much to admire about Barack Obama, and while I am a latecomer to his campaign, I have to admit that he is a potential game-changing candidate.

But for persuasive arguments, I recommend that you talk to a few McCain supporters and a few Obama supporters in your area about the issues that most interest you and your family. These candidates are quite different, and as an Edwards supporter -- one who's issues are all about economic inequality -- I suspect that you will find much to like about Obama's campaign.

Good luck.; May 22, 2008 9:26 AM
Peter said...: Re RobH

I don`t think we will see RBC working out an unfair solution for either part. Even though some of them support a candidate, I think the are more concerned with the partys well being. Ending up with an obvious unfair solution would not help anyone.

You could have a point regarding superdelegates, but I think most of the uncomitted are just staying uncomitted until we have a clear winner. I think there are a lot of supers left who won`t take sides officially. I think people like Al Gore, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi and Howard Dean all support Obama more or less, but I think they don`t won`t to take sides officially and they want to stay neutral or appear neutral in case some negotiations are needed.
I also think Obama-camp want to win this by tipping over the majority of delegates after people have voted, I don`t think they want to have supers tipping the scale. They lack 60-65 delegates at this point, I think it is fair to say that Obama will get at least 40 of the remaining pledged delegates. He will probably get 5 or 6 of the 6 add-ons being named befor june 3th. That would mean he will be around 15-20 delegates from 2026. But I think they prefer winning the majority including MI/FL before declearing victory. If we assume 69-59 and 50% cut, he would need around 90-95 more delegates. If we assume 40 from Pr, MT and SD he would only need 50-55 including the add-ons.

I think Obama-camp is timing this so that they could declear him the nominee june 3th. That would probably be a good solution because he would most likely have won both Montana and South Dakota that day. They would probably hold a rally in a bigger state than Montana, but holding a rally there june 3th could help giving him the edge in MT, it is only 3 EV, but it is a state which McCain probably thinks he will win. I think Obama could win it.; May 22, 2008 9:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Martin said:
People, please... just stop trying to reason with Yamaka and Aunt Jean. These two are clearly fanatical Hillary supporters who will never see the light, will never admit they're wrong, and will never support Obama because they only have hate in their hearts....Don't waste your time on them.

I agree to a point. I've never addressed Yamaka in a post. Attempting to engage in a dialogue with him/her is counterproductive. OTOH, I do think it worthwhile to keep posting information to counter his/her mistruths. Also, the more people post against him/her, the more he/she posts, further discrediting the Clinton logic.

.....

RobH said:
Someone here said last night "I trust the RBC." Me, too, but it's close....
For me it's not about trust, it's about transparency. Anyone can say anything on the internet. It's quite another thing to have to make a decision when your identity is known. Anyone on the RBC who says that the Michigan vote should stand as is, or that HIllary Clinton has the lead in popular votes, will have to live with that stand for the rest of their lives.

For that matter, I have not heard any Democratic elected official or party leader make this argument, besides Hillary Clinton herself. That shows how empty the argument is.

.....

Tyler said,
As the lone Clinton supporter here with a modicum of reason

Accurately posted, buddy.

.....

Once again, the Clinton/Yamaka/AuntJean definition of democracy is that the legitimate vote count from Michigan is 328000 for Clinton, zero for Obama. From a state that cast 2.48 million votes for Kerry in 2004. It also excludes votes from Iowa, Washington, Maine, and Nevada.; May 22, 2008 9:50 AM
Aunt Jean said...: softspoken22 obama is willing to go more than half way. What about him whining and wanting to split the votes what a joke. All he wants to do is make himself look better to Florida and Michigan. That is so funny. lol lol lol Jean; May 22, 2008 10:09 AM
Yamaka said...: Good Morning Democrats:

Another hot sunny day is in Houston.
____________________________________
Dear Administrators/Orea/matt:

I request that you create a Box showing the Popular Votes earned by each candidate in this Primary.

This would be an immense help for me and many others who are interested in it.

You have done a good job on the delegate counts etc.

Thanks

Respectfully,
Yamaka

_______________________________

Folks:

Hillary's Math Update

As per Last Left Box:

1972 + 240 = 2212, 2209 is the Real Hurdle.

She has 17,639,952 votes so far.
(As per realclearpolitics line 6),
she is leading by 63K.

This will improve vastly to at least 150K after June 3.

PR will be another blowout for her like WV and KY.

Cheer and Smile for Hillary, the First Woman POTUS.
:-); May 22, 2008 10:11 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 10:12 AM
Aunt Jean said...: to you obama supporters even if you give obama the 120000 votes from Michigan Hillary is still ahead in the pop vote and you can't stand that how funny!!!! Jean; May 22, 2008 10:14 AM
Aunt Jean said...: countjellybean you need to clean your ears then. Jean; May 22, 2008 10:16 AM
Anonymous said...: LOL. Yeah, Hillary is ahead in the popular vote because we all know that Obama, had he been on the ballot in Michigan would have gotten 0 votes. Tell me another.; May 22, 2008 10:20 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 10:23 AM
Walter said...: Thank you, America and Congratulations for selecting Obama as Democratic candidate! It might officially not be over yet but all world knows Hillary is out. We love Obama here in Europe - he would not only be the best US president but would also contribute to the solution of global issues like the Iraq war and environmental problems. We wish him Good Luck for the election in November!!! With Obama America will finally have a president again who is liked and respected in the world.
Walter (London, United Kingdom).; May 22, 2008 10:25 AM
Vicki in Seattle said...: Leah: Sto ridendola di anche!; May 22, 2008 10:28 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 10:29 AM
smith girl 44 said...: smith girl 44 I am gratified that the women in South Dakota are organizing to lend support for Obama. There are millions of women like myself 63 years old who support obama because we do believe he understands women. He is in the place he is today because he had the support of strong women, his mother and grandmother. Hillary Clinton is such a poor role model for women. She has stayed in a demeaning relationship being constantly battered emotionally by her egotistical, philandering husband.This is not the role model I want for my daughter or granddaughter. Women need to speak out in support of this great man!!; May 22, 2008 10:39 AM
Anonymous said...: Aunt Jean said:
to you obama supporters even if you give obama the 120000 votes from Michigan Hillary is still ahead in the pop vote and you can't stand that how funny!!!! Jean

Interesting argument. Let's take a look at the numbers. According to GreenPapers, the current vote total is:

Clinton 17,438,488
Obama 17,281,966

Michigan cast 238,168 for Uncommitted. One half of these votes is 119,084.

Adding that number to Obama gives 17,401,050, which is 37,438 behind Clinton.

So the AuntJean math gives half of Michigan's uncommitted votes to Obama.

That's 447,393 votes.

18.0% of the 2.48 million votes that Kerry got in 2004.

It also leaves out the vote counts from Iowa, Maine, Nevada, and Washington.

That is the logic that supposedly will incentivize thousands of Clinton supporters to march on the convention in the name of full democracy.; May 22, 2008 10:47 AM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Welcome aboard Smith Girl 44!

Well said.

My wife is approaching 60 (she won't let me say her age - lol) and has your same thoughts on Sen Clinton.

The amazing thing is, she has not voted in over 20 years because she has not seen a candidate that makes her feel good about where they might take the country. That is until this year. She even donated time and money to the Obama campiagn.

The train in heading out of the station folks - All Aboard!!!

08ama; May 22, 2008 10:49 AM
ed iglehart said...: Rob,

I hope you can forgive me. I have shamelessly adapted some of your words., and given them to the BBC, without credit or permiassion

Perhaps I'll rot in Hell.

;-)
ed; May 22, 2008 10:49 AM
Anonymous said...: Miss Aunt Jean,

Please go reread Tyler's previous post carefully. Then you should remove your 10:29 a.m. entry. Tyler is one person that has never started any trouble here.; May 22, 2008 10:52 AM
UUbuntu said...: Jean -- that link is to my own blog and it explains why I supported Hillary Clinton. If that was unclear in my previous post, then I apologize. I'm surprised that you, of all people, would take offense at a pro-Clinton stance. But then again, you're just full of surprises.; May 22, 2008 10:54 AM
Aunt Jean said...: smithgirll 44 you might think obama understands women but I believe that statement is such BULL. Hillary is 10x the woman than he is a man give me a break.It's a shame that a woman of your age would vote for a man that we know VERY LITTLE about and what we know is scary,. Look at all the unsavory people that he is friends and assocs. with doesn't that bother you. Are you one of those people that doesn't believe he has done anything wrong LOL LOL LOL LOL What a joke. Jean; May 22, 2008 11:01 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 11:06 AM
JayW said...: Oh good, Aunt Jean is here!!!!

Yeah!!!! Must have been time to get up and feed the cats... or did the sound of sniper fire wake you?

Seriously though... I dont know who is a bigger wast of oxygen these days, Aunt Jean or Hillary Clinton. Thankfully they will both be going away soon.

Obama 08

HRC never!!! (And by never... I mean never ever!!); May 22, 2008 11:14 AM
Aunt Jean said...: vixx if obama steals [like he is trying to do] the election you can bet you sour buns that we will have McCain in there for 4 years. Jean; May 22, 2008 11:15 AM
Vicki in Seattle said...: smith girl 44, perhaps I should call myself MHC 56? welcome!

I'm in the over-50 crowd (51) too, but so many people here seem to use "alternate math logic" that I don't think they would recognize me as "older" or even "over 50".

nevertheless, I too have supported Obama since my father (a lifelong Republican) first uttered the words that "Obama is the only one running who really offers a change from the status quo." This was last Thanksgiving; I nearly dropped my martini when he said it.; May 22, 2008 11:16 AM
Aunt Jean said...: jawy save your lung power little boy.I'm not going anywhere. Jean; May 22, 2008 11:16 AM
JayW said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 11:17 AM
JayW said...: Aunt Jean...

Get a dictionary or spell check or something... your posts make so sound like a fool. Learn the language silly uneducated cat lady.

Your 11:06AM post... a "trader" to clinton?

All I can say is WOW! No wonder you support HRC... polls show low education and low class break towards her.; May 22, 2008 11:18 AM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Aunt Jean, please stop attacking people for stating their opinions. Just like your "a man that we know VERY LITTLE about" comment. I could attack that and make a comment that it's not others fault that they took the time to educate themselves about Obama. There is plenty of references and books out there that explain his background, philosophy, and what got him to the point he is today. But if you only want to listen to News Reader's propaganda, or things thrown out on the blogs, that is your choice.

That is the great thing about this country that is coming back. Peoples right to chose.

08ama; May 22, 2008 11:18 AM
RobH said...: Tyler,

Give up with Jean. That she twisted your invitation to read your PRO-CLINTON blog (open your eyes, Jean!), into another opportunity to spew hate demonstrates the hopelessness of your attempt. Her doors are closed.
It's like trying to explain math to a bag full of hammers.

Yes, Jean, I called you a name. I've been plenty pleasant to you through-out, but you just took a soft toss - a Valentine - from Tyler, and urinated on it. Thanks a lot.; May 22, 2008 11:20 AM
Richard said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 11:22 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Tyler I do apologize those were your words not Grants. So I should be saying something to you for those words. IT IS NOT OVER SO PLEASE QUIT SAYING THOSE THINGS YOU ARE A TRAITOR TO CLINTON. YOU TURN YOUR BACK ON HER WHEN THE RACE ISN"T OVER PLEASEEEEEEEEEE! JEAN; May 22, 2008 11:24 AM
Aunt Jean said...: JAWY FOR ONCE YOU ARE RIGHT IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN TRAITOR. HOW SILLY OF ME LOL LOL JEAN; May 22, 2008 11:25 AM
Richard said...: I do wish people would stop shouting on here. It makes the thread so much harder to read. For anyone who doesn't know, posting in all-caps is considered shouting on the Internet and is considered quite rude. If you wish to add emphasis to your posts, try enclosing the words you wish to emphasize in <b> and </b> for bold or <i> and </i> for italics.; May 22, 2008 11:29 AM
Aunt Jean said...: robh where do you get that I did that to tyler he was for Hillary and before the race is over he ditches her and jumps to obama I'm sorry but I call that a traitor.Now if Hillary drops out or what ever thats fine but not yet. Jean; May 22, 2008 11:31 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 11:34 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Richard If I want to type in caps it's not any worst [as far as rudeness]then is shown by obama supporters. Jean; May 22, 2008 11:35 AM
Ariane said...: Welcome grantwoods. I liked Edwards too and have family that caucused for him in Southern Iowa where Edwards won a lot of counties I think. He had dropped out by the time I was able to vote though.

I am very glad you have your priorities in the right place and are committed to defeating McCain. Clinton and Obama are almost identical on the issues and both are very far from McCain. (I used to actually have some respect for McC for being a so-called "Maverick"but in the last 8 years he has flip flopped on issue after issue to cave into the far right that now controls the Republican Party.

Even as bad a shape as the Republicans are in we will have to really work hard to educate people, register voters and get out the vote. There is going to be major rightwing distortions and lies and there's a resistance among some of the population to voting for either a part-Black person or a woman candidate for President.

At this point it is almost certain that our nominee will be Barack Obama. You will get a lot of information about numbers here, and you sound intelligent and logical enough to realize it is almost impossible for Clinton to win the majority of delegates even if we include FL and MI (which I think should be counted partially but should be some penalty to discourage chaos in 2012 (or should I say 2011, because that's when primaries will be starting if there are no consequences to breaking rules).

Clinton has lately been saying she has the majority of the popular vote, but that is ONLY if you
* DON'T count Iowa and 3 other Caucus states that did not release raw vote totals (i.e. YOUR vote doesn't count to her - - so much for caring about voters)
*DO count the votes from Fla and Mich unauthorized elections
*give Obama 0 votes for Michigan; (you have to pretend nobody in MIchigan wanted Obama or Edwards. You also have to pretend that Michigan was a fair representative vote... which does not stand up. Not only were the other candidates not on the ballot but as someone here pointed out a day ago or so, the turnout was way low compared to other states. In other states, the ratio of 2008 Democratic primary voters to votes cast for Kerry in the 2004 GE is about 60-75%. In Michigan it was 13%. It is SO obvious that a lot of people stayed home because they had been told (including by Hillary Clinton) that their votes would not count.
And not only do you have to make several unfair assumtions to come up with Clinton leading in popular vote, but total popular vote is NOT what they were competing for - - and they would have run very different campaigns if it had been.; May 22, 2008 11:39 AM
Peter said...: Aunt Jean

If you think other people are rude it dosen`t get better by you being rude. Using Caps-lock IS rude on the internet and it is considered shouting.

The best way to get other people to be nicer is to be nice yourself. You shouting will probably not stop anyone else from being rude against you or others.; May 22, 2008 11:45 AM
Yamaka said...: Dear Democrats:

Just an update:

Hillary got so far 17,639,952 votes as per realclearpolitics line 6.

She is leading by 63K. At this point She is the Majority Candidate and BHO is a Minority Candidate (a pun intended here!).

SDs will have tough time to vote for a Minority Candidate, if HRC's lead maintains as of June 4, 2008. I believe her lead will swell to atleast 150K, taking into a/c ALL votes polled.

DCW can create a new Box to tell the world as to the best number available on Popular Votes.

Now, Hillary's Math is:

1973 + 240 = 2213, the Real Hurdle is 2209.

There are 240 undeclared SDs left, plus 86 Ds, 55 uncommitted and 20 Ed leaning Ds. Out of all this, her getting 240 is quite feasible, IMO.

Why I wont split the Uncommitted votes in MI:

1. BHO did not want the voters vote for him in Jan. The voting occurred on Jan 29, and there were 4 names in the ballot including HRC, and 4 names removed including BHO.

2. Whether a candidate withdrawn/suspended the quest for the Nomination or not, some voters meant to vote for him. How many meant to vote for Ed, Ob, Rich or Bid cannot be understood now. It is impossible.

In WV, Edwards got some votes, even though he is NOT an active candidate.

I believe reading the minds of the voter on Jan 29 is impossible to discern in May. Therefore, leave the Uncommitted votes as is. Do not divide by 4 or 2 or whatever your fancy demands, period.

My Call to Hillary Rodham Clinton:

Lioness, keep campaigning hard in all the remaining States as you have done so far.

Let BHO play pool, basket ball or swim in the sea. Just ignore him.

Keep shaking hands of all the voters.

Accrue more and more of Popular Vote lead and maintain the undisputed leader of the Majority Votes.

Just relax between June 4 and Aug 24.

Roar into the Podium of the Convention and ask the Delegates to Nominate the most popular vote getter, who has the broad support of the American People, to win the GE.

The SDs will respond kindly to your irrefutable logic of simple reasoning. For, the Majority should Rule the day.

If by some cruel twist of fate, the SDs reject your Request. Then just walk out: Do NOT shake hands with anyone. What you need is the hands of American People, not some politician or inept Official at DNC.

Ted Kennedy did this to Carter in 1980.

Allow BHO to kiss the death of defeat in the Fall. Along with him, let the Democratic Party go in flames for the horrendous stupidity to nominate the weakest Candidate in half a century!

What a Fall for the least vetted, least experienced and most risky Minority Candidate!

Then, roar back as Ron Reagan did in 1980. Capture the Throne and rule the country from the Middle for 8 years with over 500 EVs.

Perhaps, that's your Karma, Lioness!

God will bless you for your tenacity of purpose and excellent public service.

:-) :-); May 22, 2008 11:45 AM
JayW said...: Aunt Jean...

1135 AM Post... "any worst"?????

Is english your second language? Most people that I know that have learned english as a second language use it better than you.
Yet another reason you being a HRC supporter makes sense. I am sure you dont even understand most of Obama's "big words"... HRC dumbs it down enough for you.; May 22, 2008 11:54 AM
JayW said...: Aunt Jean...

Maybe you have problems typing because your fingers are too fat to hit one key at a time?

Maybe your cats keep walking across the keyboard?

Maybe you just dont know the language very well?

No matter the excuse... your posts are worthless. You should use all of your "online time" trying to better yourself. Maybe read a self-help book... or get some exercise or something.; May 22, 2008 12:01 PM
UUbuntu said...: RobH (and Pablo) -- Thanks for the support. I've been around here long enough to understand where Aunt Jean is coming from. Of the regular posters here though, Jean is the only one for whom I feel pity.

To her, this presidential race is very personal, and watching Sen. Clinton nomination struggles in the past few months is probably quite painful. Our scorn for her posts does nothing to ease her pain, and we here on this blog cannot help her.

The problem is that Aunt Jean is not alone. There is a sizable demographic -- as represented by Geraldine Ferraro (here from the Today Show a few days ago) -- who feel exactly the same way that she feels. They're wrong, of course, and they're pretty ignorant of popular culture, but they are also really fearful of who Obama is and they will vote in November. And this may be a serious issue in the fall.; May 22, 2008 12:03 PM
Vicki in Seattle said...: hey, don't be dissin' cat lovers!

heh, I have a couple under my own roof. I don't own them, they own me.; May 22, 2008 12:03 PM
JayW said...: This just in....

Obama is in the process of deciding who his running mate will be. (WONT BE CLINTON!!!!)

Obama08; May 22, 2008 12:04 PM
UUbuntu said...: Folks, remember the quarantine!; May 22, 2008 12:08 PM
JayW said...: Vicki...

No worries. I also have a cat.

But there is a difference between having a few pets and being "The Crazy Cat Lady." You know, the lady that lives all alone, never got married, trolls the internet all day, and has 75 cats in her house.

Dont be that lady.; May 22, 2008 12:08 PM
Peter said...: Could we please stop the attacks?

Here is a new encouarging poll from Virginia. This is a state Obama won by a solid margin, as I said earlier today, I think Obama is "punished" by a "frustration"-effect in some states where Clinton won, I think this effect is temporary and will be gone when Clinton is out. However, Obama is allready polling well in some other states, according to Survey USA, he has a SEVEN point lead in Virgina. Virginia is an important state with 13 EV and Kerry lost this state by 10 points in 04.

The margin of error is 4,1%, so the lead is not big enough to be significant, but it is close. Obama wins 17% of republicans, thats huge, he wins narrow among indipendents and a good enough lead among democrats (I think "frustration"-effect is present here as well).

The polls has also tested with some VP-picks for both Obama and McCain. The interesting thing is that Obama-Edwards is winning HUGE against both McCain-Huckabee, McCain-Romney and McCain-Lieberman.; May 22, 2008 12:09 PM
Yamaka said...: jay:

Please leave Jean alone.

If you don't like her writing, then don't read it, for Good God's sake!

You come across very angry.

Perhaps, she knows you are very weak!

Are you that weak?

:-(; May 22, 2008 12:11 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam & Aunt Jean,

If you are really looking to help out Hillary, you should head to the RBC meeting. The Clinton campaign is trying to rally support at the RBC meeting. They are hoping for busloads of supporters to protest.

Here's the Daily News Story: Busloads of Clinton Supporters

Maybe you should plan to go. In fact, if you leave now, you could be the first in line.; May 22, 2008 12:21 PM
apissedant said...: Grant,

You may be gone by now, and may not be coming back, (seeing as it is 5 hours later) but I still feel the need to respond. I think your post is excellent and you make a lot of great points.
As many have already responded to you, Michigan, Florida, and the DNC have all decided against a revote. They all decided it would be too expensive and too time consuming. This means the seating must be decided now, without any authorized vote to assist in the assignment. Regardless of how they are seated, Obama still holds an edge in delegates. This includes extreme solutions where he gets 0 PDs in Michigan, which by all accounts would be unfair. For this reason, he is the nominee, regardless of what Clinton supporters say.
I am also a former Edwards supporter, and held significant reservations with Obama when I initially switched over. I found his response to the Wright scandal, and even the silly rural PA scandals were outstanding. I saw that he was intelligent, insightful, and honest. I realize that he is currently touting the majority hard line opinion with Israel and Afghanistan, but examine his actual speeches and you see a much clearer, and more promising answer.
The fact is he realizes that poverty and a lack of hope causes civil-unrest. He has said this so many times in speeches, but it has always been taken out of context and twisted into garbage. His rural PA remarks put a perfect light on this. This means he would not give all military solutions to Afghanistan, Iraq, or Palestine, despite how public opinion is currently interpreting his words. He realizes that raising the odds and increasing military strength in these regions will only increase the loss of life. We must have some troops in order to help stabilize the region, but the key need is restore jobs, food, and hope to the people. The military cannot do this, and this must be done through political negotiations, and rebuilding programs. He has convinced me that he will do this, and no other candidate has given me this hope.
Lastly, as to the constant bickering in this blog, I would have you note it almost all surrounds Aunt Jean. Many Obama supporters have already taken the high road, and are not ignoring her inflammatory statements. I suggest you avoid those that are still successfully being bated by this woman obsessed with fighting.; May 22, 2008 12:23 PM
JayW said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 22, 2008 12:26 PM
JayW said...: Yam...

Dont be a cranky pants because I picked on your crazy cat lady woman crush...

I would pick on you... but there is no need... your posts make no sense and are laughable at best.

Everyone knows that you are a total moron... a window licker.

But Aunt Jean... no, she seserves to be picked on and insulted. She does not feel that anyone should have an opinion that differs from her own and degrades people that do openly... so as far as I am concerned it is open season on Aunty Jean.

If you dont like it......; May 22, 2008 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Tyler,
"To her, this presidential race is very personal, and watching Sen. Clinton nomination struggles in the past few months is probably quite painful. "

Above you say past few months but the fact is, in the last few months,( say three months}
Clinton has acquired more popular vote and pledged delegates.
It is frustrating to her, to see someone who has been beaten for three solid months claiming victory.

I speak only of PD'S and pop vote.; May 22, 2008 12:33 PM

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