Democratic Convention Watch: Open Thread

Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Open Thread

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Who's going to win, who has a better chance against McCain, or whatever else is on your mind.

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Thanks!

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4317 comments:

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Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 2:14 AM
Aunt Jean said...: softspoken22 I was taking about the bike and what you said. Would you really crush that boys pride by giving him the money back? That to me is very cruel. Jean; May 21, 2008 2:16 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: RobH-

I'll be here a another hour or so - we won't leave you here all alone ;); May 21, 2008 2:17 AM
Aunt Jean said...: leah dream on about obama turning red states blue without Hillarys help. LOL LOL LOL Jean; May 21, 2008 2:18 AM
RobH said...: too bad green papers doesn't add up.
they've got 1654.5 and 1500.5.
I know it's a nit, but that's DCW's source - would be nice if it tied out.; May 21, 2008 2:20 AM
rag218psu said...: To Leah,

I agree with Universal Healthcare

Her plan for lowering the cost of Eduacation (specifically forgiving your loan debt if you perform a national service: military, teching, etc.)

Her take on strengthing the Middle Class by the above education reforms, tax cuts and availibility of 'Green Collar' jobs

Bringing the troops home within 60 days of taking office.

And lets be honest, experience matters. Shes been in government long enough to understand the nuances of how it works and how to improve it. Obama is still green. I would be happy to vote for his first term in 2012 afer he gets some more experience in the senate. Im not sure what Obama will "change". He can try but he is in the minority and government will work as it always has.; May 21, 2008 2:20 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: I just noticed how bad my typing is tonight ... it's the vodka!

I type much better when I'm sipping Merlot ;); May 21, 2008 2:22 AM
suzihussein22 said...: Jay Leno-This makes me think of growing up with Johny Carson, which reminds of having only 4 channels of B/W TV. Remember what Foxworthy said? When the president was on, your night was shot.:) Now I feel sheepish, because I didn't realize how important it was to pay attention. I'm so glad my kids are interested. They have to hear a lot of anti-Obama stuff at school. We tell them not to respond, because it's just not worth it. We didn't grow up around here, so they would be more likely to get sent to the office than others.

rag-I would also like to know what the issue differences are for you. I think I've got an open mind too and agree to disagree.; May 21, 2008 2:26 AM
Aunt Jean said...: rag218psu don't believe leah she is a clinton hater. The only place she goes to is rag post like the huffington . She is always trying to stir up trouble with Hillary supporters.How did you like the win in KY. I thought it was GREAT!!!!! Good luck w/ Leah Oh one more thing she Has said some ugly things about Hillary. Hillary Clinton our next POTUS; May 21, 2008 2:27 AM
rag218psu said...: Off topic from my last posts.

I think we should have a national primary, or at least a rotating primary where different states in different election years vote at different times.

I also think we need to get rid of the electoral college. It's a system that is outdated. Good when citizens didnt have access to media and were less informed. Bad now where we can get information at the blink of an eye and can make our own informed choices on the candidates. A purely popular vote would be more practical.; May 21, 2008 2:28 AM
Aunt Jean said...: softspoken22 yes you have a pretty good open mind but the other female on here her is not only closed it's locked. Jean; May 21, 2008 2:29 AM
Woodland Sprite said...: Hello fellow DEMs.

Been too busy with work, our road getting shut down by a tractor trailer spill of gasoline from a tanker truck and then tonight watching the local election results to stop in here for the last few days.

To be honest as well, though I consider myself a progressive I am not as partisan as many of you all are and this bickering is not something I feel like I need to insert myself into.

Thank you (you all know who you are) who pointed me to issue papers and quick quiz sites and posted thoughtfull posts to help me make my decision for the democratic nominee I should vote for.

I was asked if had voted for a winner or not when I was just teasing folks about who I had voted for.

I came back and said that I had voted for a current US Senator that puts their pants on like everyone else does (one leg at a time).

Oh and I voted for the winner here in Oregon tonight, Barack Obama.; May 21, 2008 2:30 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: rag218psu said...

To Leah,

I agree with Universal Healthcare

Her plan for lowering the cost of Eduacation (specifically forgiving your loan debt if you perform a national service: military, teching, etc.)

Her take on strengthing the Middle Class by the above education reforms, tax cuts and availibility of 'Green Collar' jobs

Bringing the troops home within 60 days of taking office.
________________________

The one thing I disagree with on Hillary's healthcare plan is that it is MANDATORY. Not mandatory that the government provides it BUT mandatory that AMERICANS buy it. That means if you don't buy it you will have to pay a FINE. It is not working well in MA where people are getting fined.

Obama first starting talking about the $4,000 per student per year for education in exchange for national service, working in a homeless shelter, veterans home etc. Sometime after Hillary's 12 state loss she added her version to her stump speech.

Obama has a plan for Green Collar jobs.

Hillary was the one that would not state a time table to bring our troops home. Obama was the only candidate that said he would immediately enact a plan to bring the troops home and have them all home within 16 months of taking office.

It is impossible to have them all home in the first 60 days - it will take at least 60 days to come up with a plan.

So basically the only thing different their current plans is that Hillary will fine people if they don't buy insurance!

Well that is not enough to sway me ;); May 21, 2008 2:31 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: rag218psu said..." I think we should have a national primary, or at least a rotating primary where different states in different election years vote at different times."
_____

I have heard some talk about where they might change it so that the states are divided up by regions and then the different regions would alternate going first. That sounds like something that might work out well.; May 21, 2008 2:38 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Woodland Sprite-

Welcome back and congrats for voting for the winner!

Obama '08/'12

.; May 21, 2008 2:40 AM
suzihussein22 said...: rag218psu-Hi.

issue-education-Some states already "forgive" student loans after teaching so many years in "recessed" districts. That's what my husband will be looking at in 2 yrs.

Leah-You just reminded me. I've got some Jack...ahh, that hit the spot.:)

Aunt Jean-Not to be nitpicky, but I agreed with getting him a new bike and suggested getting him a scholarship. Kudos to him for being interested and informed at such a young age! Maybe I wasn't being specific enough about giving the money back. Except for their first bikes, my kids have mostly recycled bikes from the recycling center. That's also living green on a local scale. They are also getting wood from an old barn to make a clubhouse. If I had a hammer...:); May 21, 2008 2:40 AM
Kujo said...: rag218psu,

I can not understand why someone would Choose Clinton's Universal Health Care plan. Here is the difference on where they stand.

Clinton states that she will cap cost and mandate everyone to buy insurance. Cap can mean many things - keep cost stable at a set price could be higher or lower then current cost.

Lets assume for the sake of arguement that she will lower cost like Obama's plan. Then the only difference int the plans is that she will mandate people to buy Insurance.

The current problem is people can not afford Health Care, not that they don't want it. (different then in seat belts where it became necessary to mandate it in states). So if in both cases they reduce cost to make it affordable, why do we need to pay for a government agency to enforce it.

I personally do not care if someone who now can afford it (with reduced cost) choses not to.

If we assume CAP means keep it the same, then we can see that trying to reduce cost is a much better goal then to give in to the insurance and medical companies (primarily drug companies who sell the same drugs for much cheeper in other countries).; May 21, 2008 2:41 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: I am SO happy right now!

Total delegates needed to win the Democratic nomination:

Obama 64
Clinton 246; May 21, 2008 2:42 AM
RobH said...: Can't...
hold...
out...
any...
longer.

Confused by OR results. Projection was for greater than 1M votes, but w/ 76 % in, they're only showing 510K total votes, which projects to 680K total. That seems way off. Something amiss there.

Been waiting for an updated OR delegate allocation and pop vote update.

Looks like delegates will go as expected and with KY's 4 worse than projected total, we're still on track for clinching by the weekend.; May 21, 2008 2:43 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: softspoken22,

Agree with Oregon Dem on CO, but I also think NH is fairly easily attainable (Pollster.com's poll of polls shows Shaheen with an 8%, and increasing, lead on Sununu), and with a Democratic Governor in Ohio, it should be easier to win there.

LA is not going to be in play at all, and contrary to Hillary's assertion, neither will WV, even if she were the nominee.

Other states that should be in play are NM, VA, MT and one or both of the Dakotas, and possibly NC. IA should swing back to the Dems, along with NM and NV.

One state that would REALLY surprise me if it were a close call this year would be Indiana, a solid red state since 1940 except for 1964. Not even when Perot got almost 20% of the GE vote did it go for the Dems in 1992. George Wallace got over 10% of the vote in 1968. A lot of people think the states in the Great Plains have been solid Republican for longest, but Indiana takes the prize in a cakewalk.

One state to watch is Alaska.

Alaska?

A lot of political corruption is being investigated in Alaska right now, all of it from Republicans, and the voters just might throw everyone they can out of office to try to start fresh. Right now, Begich (D) is polling even with, or slightly ahead, of Stevens, the incumbent R.

This could auger well for the Dems this year. Even if the Dems don't win the state (senate or presidential), it will draw Rep attention that they normally wouldn't have to even worry about. Any attention the Reps have to pay in places like Alaska is attention they won't be able to put in another place.

Mike; May 21, 2008 2:44 AM
rag218psu said...: To Rob,
Ricky is my name, the 218 is a random number and yes I am Nittany Lion! :)

To auntjean,
Thanks for your support.

To Leah,
I enjoy the healthy debating!
Leah said:"I DO think that Obama is capable of turn some red states blue"...
at the risk of turning some states red, so no net gain or loss.
You are right in saying that most of our candidates' issues are similar but not identical, I just feel Hillary's are more in line with my takes on the issues.

To Oregon Dem:
PSU always stands for Penn State ;)
and about the gas tax holiday. It's non issue seeing as i have no car. (Not that you would have known, lol); May 21, 2008 2:46 AM
RobH said...: Somebody needs to help me out on the Oregon votes:

Projected at 1 Million plus.

As of now, 76% reporting,
297K Obama,
213K Clinton
total = 510K.
Prorated, that's 680K votes.

What gives?

Softspoken = jack
Leah = vodka
RobH = gin (or syrah depends the mood or the meal.)

As you were.; May 21, 2008 2:48 AM
suzihussein22 said...: Welcome back Woodland Sprite. Thanks for taking the high road. Shame on them for teasing you and wanting to know who you voted for!:) Are you sure there weren't any Oreos scattered around? (another thread); May 21, 2008 2:48 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 2:50 AM
rag218psu said...: Let's agree to disagree! lol

It sucks that we have two great candidates and lets face it's all W's fault. That is why both candidates and supporters alike are fighting hard

About Healthcare from hillaryclinton.com:

Hillary's American Health Choices Plan covers all Americans and improves health care by lowering costs and improving quality. It speaks to American values, American families, and American jobs.

It puts the consumer in the driver's seat by offering more choices and lowering costs. If you're one of the tens of million Americans without coverage or if you don't like the coverage you have, you will have a choice of plans to pick from and that coverage will be affordable. Of course, if you like the plan you have, you can keep it.

Affordable: Unlike the current health system where insurance premiums send people into bankruptcy, the plan provides tax credits for working families to help them cover their costs. The tax credits will ensure that working families never have to pay more than a limited percentage of their income for health care.

Available: No discrimination. The insurance companies can't deny you coverage if you have a pre-existing condition.

Reliable: It's portable. If you change or lose your job, you keep your health care.; May 21, 2008 2:51 AM
Aunt Jean said...: rag218psu don't let them fool you Hillary's plan is a lot better. She wants to lower the cost of insurance and meds. We have to pay for people that don't have insurance now that can afford it so why not make them pay for it. If you can't pay for it the gov. will help you. Now obama's plan doesn't cap anything so the cost will sky rocket. Plus he is also making it mandatory for kids. Now I don't know of an ins. co that just sells to kids do you so that means the parents will have to get ins. also. Don't let them fool you into thinking obama's plan is better it's not by any means. Jean; May 21, 2008 2:52 AM
rag218psu said...: I may be young (ok 23) but I decided to support Hillary from beginning of W's second term so nothing can sway me at this stage in the game ;); May 21, 2008 2:55 AM
Aunt Jean said...: woodland sprite such a shame. Jeanuvqmnrl; May 21, 2008 2:58 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: rag218psu said...
And lets be honest, experience matters.

I really hate to have to drag this out again, but here are the resumés of two candidates:

The first one:
State representative - 6 years
US Congressman - 10 years
Ambassador to Russia - 3 years
United States Senator - 10 years
Secretary of State - 4 years
Minister to Britain - 3 years

Compare that with another candidate's experience:
State representative - 8 years
US Congressman - 2 years (and failed to be reelected because he spoke out against an impending war)

The first? James Buchanan. How is he rated among the 43 Presidents?

The second? His successor, One Abraham Lincoln.

Experience counts? Depends on the experience. It also depends on the character of the person.

Mike; May 21, 2008 3:01 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: rag218psu-

It is too late for me to get into a debate and I really don't want to. I read what you posted and that is exactly like Obama's plan. Just like Elizabeth Edwards has said that both plans are 99% alike.

The thing I don't go for is that under Hillary's plan - you can be fined a monetary amount if you don't carry coverage.

Under Obama's everything is the same... lower premiums, can't be excluded for pre-existing illness, etc. etc. etc. like I said the only thing different is that the government can FINE you ;(

Anyway no biggie - we won't have to worry about having her plan because it wouldn't pass the Senate as is anyway.

Oh, since you are a newbie here I must warn you to BEWARE OF THE TROLLS that talk to themselves on this thread ;); May 21, 2008 3:01 AM
rag218psu said...: Ok well night all. Dreaming of how great Hillary's first term in office as POTUS next year! After all it took a Clinton to cleanup after the first Bush and it will take a Clinton to clean up after the second Bush!; May 21, 2008 3:03 AM
Oregon Dem said...: robh: where are you looking Oregon SoS has 912,000 votes reporting at 11:35 (514K dems) there are 2.2 million registered voters of which ~42% are dems.

Woodland: Was wonder whether that semi crashed near you on 26. All is OK I hope?

If you switch over to the Kentucky /Oregon link on the main page Amot is tracking. The only difference between what I initially thought (gut feel) was that initially I thought CD 3 would only deliver 5 out of 9 and now it sure looks like 6 out of 9. AND the sate itself went slightly more than I initially thought so one more statewide gets added.

So if you think of it this way - it was a great night for Obama cause even a supporter of his had lower expectations and the swing from mine was +2 Obama -2 Clinton.

Night all.

Leah - do not stay up too late - ;-); May 21, 2008 3:03 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oregon Dem-

Go here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OR

and roll your mouse over the map - there are many counties that have lots of precincts not full reporting yet.; May 21, 2008 3:05 AM
Aunt Jean said...: mrs edwards voted for Hillary and liked her plan better. Jean; May 21, 2008 3:06 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 3:08 AM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 3:11 AM
Oregon Dem said...: Leah:

What I was saying in answer to RobH's post about - what is up with Oregon voting?

Is this:

1M to 1.2M Oregonians were expected to vote out of the 2.2 M registered voters.

of those ~ 42 % are registered Democrats

I expected the Ds to vote in higher %

So 700K should be the dem voter turnout - the other 300K to 500K would be the repugnicans or the independents.; May 21, 2008 3:15 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: RobH,

Don't confuse precints reporting with vote counted.

At 3:15, CNN is showing 88% of precincts counted in Multnomah County, with 130,000 votes counted. Another 15-17,000 from there to be counted.

Washington County has counted 77% of the precincts, with about 66,000 votes counted so far. In the remaining 23% of the precincts, which translates into another 20,000 to be counted.

OTOH, Malheur has 50% of precincts counted, but so far only 1500 votes total. So adding in the remaining precincts would only mean another 1500 or so votes.

Mike; May 21, 2008 3:16 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oregon Dem -

I missed your post ;(

Sweet dreams to you!

and THANK YOU TO EVERYONE UP THERE IN OREGON TONIGHT!!!

Obama / Kathleen Sebelius '08; May 21, 2008 3:16 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oregon Dem-

It still seems to me that lots of votes have not yet been counted. I betcha in the morning the numbers will surprise you!

It takes a long time to count ONE MILLION ballots ;); May 21, 2008 3:19 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Ooops - it was RobH ;)

Never mind ;); May 21, 2008 3:23 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey guys I have something better for Leah see if you can figure it out she is a BWS.That decribes her much better. LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL Jean; May 21, 2008 3:29 AM
Oregon Dem said...: Leah, Mike, et. al.

Yes see you in the morning I am taking tomorrow off and will check the final tally and check in here as well.

I still wonder when the rest of the Supers (including Pelosi et. al. will break fo one or the other).

My guess is that some will break before the 31st and some will wait till after the last primary.

So the waiting game continues....

Not waiting for IF Obmama will win or not, but waiting for what Senatator Clinton will do / say...

Ah well, at least until then I get to chat with some fine folks (posted their names before) and I repeat I would like to keep it up well past the time that Obama becomes President Obama.

Take care all.

Be nice.

Visualize our nest President Barack Obama and all will be good.

Woodland: Glad to here that you voted for Obama and hope that mess on 26 did not create too much havoc for you and your family.; May 21, 2008 3:32 AM
Amot said...: Joni,
Thank you and all other progressive Oregonians for your help to claim back the WH!
Democrats in OR voted at about 70% turnout! HUGE!!! Thanks again!; May 21, 2008 3:37 AM
Peter said...: Re Aunt Jean
Who said Mrs. Edwards voted for Hillary? From what i know, she only said that she like Hillarys healthcare plan better, that doesn`t mean she voted for her. I`m not saying that she didn`t, I`m just saying that I don`t think Mrs.Edwards have said that she voted for Clinton. She also said yesterday that she didn`t plan to endorse anyone.

I actually agree, I think HRCs plan looks better on paper, but i don`t think it would be passed, so I prefer Obamas plan which I think could get passed.; May 21, 2008 3:45 AM
Hippolytus said...: I wonder if there's only one voter counter in Oregon, whose name is Chad. Let's speed it up, folks!; May 21, 2008 3:51 AM
Peter said...: Ron Paul has 15% of the votes in OR with 83% counted. He could end up with close to 50 000 votes, thats just embarrassing for McCain. McCain won this several months ago, but he still has visible competion. People talk about our problem regarding the battle between Obama and Clinton, well, I think McCain should be more worried, there are A LOT of protest-voters against McCain in several states, they could easily go to Bob Barr or Obama in the fall.

In KY Huckabee got 8%, Paul 7% and uncomitted 5%. Only 72% voted for McCain, thats just a poor performance.; May 21, 2008 3:58 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Peter -

You are correct. In the last interview Elizabeth Edwards gave she said she is not going to endorse anyone. She is only going to continue to promote heathcare in America, and she has 'never' said who she voted for in the NC primary.; May 21, 2008 4:00 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Hurry up Oregon!

Hurry up Super Delegates!

Let's get this over with ;)

OBAMA '08/'12

.; May 21, 2008 4:01 AM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: I'm going to bed.

Goodnight everyone, see ya'll tomorrow. I wonder if Al Gore is going to show up in Florida with Obama at the Florida rally!

H
Obama
P
E

Obama '08
.; May 21, 2008 4:04 AM
Mike in Maryland said...: To those predicting Puerto Rico and haven't noticed, The Green Papers has updated their PR page to show the 'missing' 3 delegates:

District 1 San Juan gets 6 PDs (inc. of 2)
District 8 Carolina gets 5 PDs (inc. of 1)

District 2 Bayamón stays at 5, all others stay at 4.

The change in my prediction is +1 (to 25) for Obama, -1 (to 30) for Clinton until new polling date rolls in, hopefully by mid to late week next week, after Richardson's visit to the island. Last (and only) poll was taken in early April.

Mike; May 21, 2008 5:13 AM
Peter said...: Th question is if Obama will visit. I think he should and he probably should stay for at least a couple of days, it could help in other states with some "hispanics" in the fall. PR is not that important in this primary, but I think Obama should campaign there and I think he can win. He is probably going to win South Dakota and Montana quite easily, but ending the primary with 4 vitories in a row would be good for the momentum going in to the general election.

Last poll hade Clinton 13 points ahead, but that was over a month ago, I think Obama could be closer now.; May 21, 2008 5:58 AM
suzihussein22 said...: Some more right-wing spins, smears, and chills-

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/20/mccain-confronted-with-ne_n_102614.html; May 21, 2008 7:16 AM
suzihussein22 said...: Is this the kind of bipartanship the Dems need? I'm impressed, without being appeased. ;)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/20/chuck-hagel-takes-on-mcca_n_102775.html; May 21, 2008 7:29 AM
Peter said...: Hagel VS Lieberman;)

Both attacking the candidate from their own party. Interesting.; May 21, 2008 7:50 AM
ed iglehart said...: chewwook,

I'm with leah on the bike matter - disgraceful!

And, please G-d, not Hillary as VP nom! I'll lose my bets on Webb and have to cover my shorts on Hillary, and it'll hurt too much to bear.

Besides, I can't imagine a more toxic addition to an Obama ticket. It would reduce his credibility, add in her considerable baggage and mendacious rep, and for what gain? A few die-hard HRC gender-ists, who can't see past their own fixations.

Salaam, etc.
ed; May 21, 2008 8:19 AM
UUbuntu said...: rag218psu -- welcome to some of the most partisan bickering around :-). I, like you, supported Clinton's candidacy, and did for a long time, for many of the same reasons.

At this point though, the numbers don't lie. Obama will win the nomination, and it's up to us to acknowledge this fact and to decide if Obama's vision for this country is better than McCain's. Comparing Clinton's qualifications, candidacy, personality or platform to Obama's is a moot point, and we'll only repeat talking points that have been made -- over and over -- for the past 6 months, and we'll get bitterer and bitterer about this process. Some folks on this board still cannot see beyond their own hurt and disappointment in the primary results to evaluate the two Democratic candidates fairly.

The choice is this: Obama or McCain, and while he has flaws, I have no doubt that Sen. Obama will make a far, far better president than will Sen. McCain.

Having said all this, I now have to link to a recent amusing piece on Clinton's staying in this race: Clinton as Norma Desmond. Enjoy.

P.S., rag218psu -- congrats on your recent Penn State graduation (you DID graduate, right?). I went to that other PA university that's always confused with Penn State, but that was a few years ago.; May 21, 2008 8:27 AM
UUbuntu said...: Ed -- Relax. Hillary won't be the VP nominee. Guaranteed.; May 21, 2008 8:34 AM
JayW said...: I agree... Hillary has no chance of being offered the VP.

It would make NO sense at all.

She needs to go back to the senate and do good work from there.; May 21, 2008 8:42 AM
Peter said...: I agree, there is no way Clinton will become VP. I don`t think she want it and I don`t think Obama want here. Having Obama (half african-american) and Clinton (woman) on the same ticket sounds good, but sadly i think some people will found such a ticket to "liberal".
I think Obama need an older (younger than McCain) experienced white man.
I think Clinton is in the race in case something special happens and to strengthen her own position regarding a place in the party or because of the possibilty to run in 2012. The last argument could be one of the reasons why Clinton have toned down her offensive against Obama, there is no way she could run in 2012 if Obama lose against McCain and Hillary get blamed for it. She is walking a thin line, but i think she will endorse and support Obama 100% after she quits. Part of the reason for that, is that she would be "politically dead" if she failed to support Obama sufficiently.; May 21, 2008 8:43 AM
Peter said...: A new Reuters/Zogby poll, extremly positive for Obama.

Democratic Primary
Obama 59%
Clinton 33%
Spread: Obama 26%
Thats nearly 2-1

Realclearpolitics have Obama ahead with 12,4% as an average. Thats the biggest lead so far.
General Election
Obama 48%
McCain40?
Spread: Obama 8%

General Election
Clinton: 43%
McCain: 43%

Realclearpolitics have Obama 4,3% ahead of McCain as an average. Clintons margin is 1,8%.; May 21, 2008 8:50 AM
Yamaka said...: Good Morning Fellow Democrats:

Another sunny hot day in Houston.

HRC made History to become the First Primary Candidate receiving MOST votes ever in our Union. She is the First Woman also. Because of her Message.

BHO made History in raising more money ever during election in our Union.

She is leading in Popular Votes by 71-181K margin (realclearpolitics.com line 5,6).

Now, the real hard part for our undeclared SDs (244 as of this minute) is to support a Majority Candidate HRC or a Minority/Minority Candidate BHO.

I bet they WILL and MUST Nominate the Majority Candidate if the Party wants to win the General Election.

HRC has a very good chance, in spite of all the liberal MSM and DCW patrons:

1972 + 65 + 177 = 2214, the Real Hurdle being 2210.

SDs: Think hard and act fast.

Ask this question:

1. Why did Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry go down on flames in the GE?

2. Why did Bill Clinton win twice the WH?

FAR LEFT Liberals vs Moderate Centrist.

Nominate a Centrist, Moderate HRC and win the WH.

She is the Majority Candidate too.
She is the First Woman too.

Break Open the Glass Ceiling Now.

Nominate Hillary Rodham Clinton, our First Woman POTUS.

:-); May 21, 2008 10:01 AM
ed iglehart said...: News Just in! Clinton supporters surrender!

;-)
ed; May 21, 2008 10:07 AM
Anonymous said...: My congratulations to Senator Obama and all his fervent and dedicated supporters for his win in Oregon; May 21, 2008 10:12 AM
Peter said...: It will be intersting to see if we get any superdelegate action from the "pelosi" club today or if they wait. A think we will see 4-5 Obama supers today no matter what happens. I think one or two of those will be from FL. He got 4 supers from MI last week (he visited MI last week), I wouldn`t be surprised if he gets some from FL today or tomorrow as well.

Winning FL would be harder for Obama than winning MI. I think MI eventually will be a safe win (high single digits) but FL could go either way. He needs to get a solid support from hispanics and older voters (a lot of older jews). I think he needs to campaign a lot in FL, I think McCain will fight hard here.; May 21, 2008 10:34 AM
Ariane said...: Congratulations to both our historic Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on their wins last night.

One thing for sure that has been shown over this primary season is that there are a lot of Americans who REALLY want a change from the way the Bush Admin has messed things up and and people are voting for Democrats to make that happen.
(Now we just have to make sure we do the sme in November.); May 21, 2008 10:39 AM
Martin said...: Thanks to all my fellow Oregonians for giving Obama yet another big win last night, and congrats to Clinton for her big win in KY (even though a large % of her vote came from admitted racists).

Obama's speech last night was so inspiring, I had tears in my eyes. What an amazingly classy guy to give Hillary so much credit. You'll never see her being so gracious.

Also, is she really delusional enough to believe that a little boy would actually sell his bike and videogames to support her (a MILLIONAIRE) of his own free will? Obviously his parents put him up to it. And SHAME ON HILLARY for not giving back the money.; May 21, 2008 11:09 AM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

I see you've updated your latest MI-FL math. Ignoring the SD's that have anounced today, you have:

1972 + 65 + 177 = 2214

This would indicate that Hillary can take 65 of remaining 86 pledged delegates between PR, MT and SD. Although mathematically possible, this unrealistic. Even should Hillary win all three primaries 70-30, she would not be able to win 65 delegates. I think at best she could win 55, but that would require more than a 20pt victory in MT and SD.

So, I think your numbers should be closer to:

1972 + 55 + 187 = 2214

Of course, I don't believe that she has little chance of winning 75% of the remaining SD's given the way the add-ons break.; May 21, 2008 11:16 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Peter the night before Edwards endorsed obama he was on cnn I think but they were trying to get him to say who he backed anyway he admitted that it was the other person than who his wife voted for. So if he voted for obama than means that she voted for hillary.Sorry Hillary's plan has just as much chance of passing as obamas Jean; May 21, 2008 11:28 AM
Yamaka said...: jp:

More important development is HRC is leading in Popular Vote by 71K-181K (realclearpolitics line 6,5).

This I believe is the Game Changer.

This puts meat on the bone of my contention that HRC is the Majority Candidate and BHO is the Minority Candidate (there is a pun also intended!).

Now let us see whether the remaining undeclared SDs (243 at this minute) have the timidity to go with the Minority or the Majority?

They are indeed in a pickle as I said several times before!!!

At the end of the day, the Majority should win in a viable Democracy. (I believe America has a viable thriving Democracy, although the Democratic Party is becoming undemocratic lately in FL and MI!)

Everything else is just smoke and mirrors, facades of deception and deviations from the norm!

Of course, anything can happen!

We have to wait for the July/Aug/Oct Surprises for 2008!!

:-); May 21, 2008 11:35 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Hey Obama it's amazing the different numbers that we can come up with .I will say this your numbers are a JOKE. LOL LOL LOL LOL.Where do you get them from the rag huffington post.! lol Jean; May 21, 2008 11:37 AM
Aunt Jean said...: Martin if KY voters are racists I guess you are too. Jean; May 21, 2008 11:40 AM
Martin said...: "More important development is HRC is leading in Popular Vote by 71K-181K (realclearpolitics line 6,5)."

Notice how you consistently have to conveniently overlook lines 1 through 4. Lines 1 and 2 are the only valid metrics. Lines 3 and 4 include Florida, which is an invalid race (and even then, Obama STILL wins!). Lines 5 and 6 include Michigan, which is an absolute joke because Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot.

Those straws you're grasping at are looking mighty flimsy.; May 21, 2008 11:47 AM
Yamaka said...: "Lines 5 and 6 include Michigan, which is an absolute joke because Obama's name wasn't even on the ballot."

I believe in Total Inclusive Democracy for ALL States, unlike most supporters of the Minority /Minority Candidate, BHO.

BHO voluntarily removed his name from MI ballot - he wanted to pander to early States and got benefited! (How bizarre that he left his name in FL, all of which shows his INEXPERIENCE).

How could MI voters vote for him when he DID not want them to do?

Majority will win in true Democracy!

PR will increase HRC's Popular Vote lead further more.

Stay tuned.; May 21, 2008 12:01 PM
Kujo said...: Aunt Jean,

You keep talking that Clintons health care plan is better but you never back it up with facts.

The only difference between the plan is that Clinton will create more government to manage makeing sure that people who can afford it buys it. This is the best case scenario if she is really determined to lower cost.

The other question is who has the ability to successfully implement any plan. With Clinton we have history. She failed once already. You can blame congress for it but that is where a real leader comes it. She is not a successful leader.

Unless you count the time she lead a 5 wounded soldiers in the Mountains of Bosnia and took on 3 batalians armed only with a bottle of mace and had them all surrender.

Or there was the time......; May 21, 2008 12:04 PM
Kujo said...: Yakama,

Good By Hillery, Good by Hillery, Good by Hillery where happy to see you Goooooooooooo; May 21, 2008 12:06 PM
Martin said...: "BHO voluntarily removed his name from MI ballot - he wanted to pander to early States and got benefited! (How bizarre that he left his name in FL, all of which shows his INEXPERIENCE)."

He removed his name from the MI ballot to show solidarity with the party's decision. He was not ALLOWED to remove his name from the FL ballot, under Florida law.

You should really do a little research before you post.; May 21, 2008 12:09 PM
Dan Loeb said...: By the end of the month I anticipate Obama will collect 7 more add-ons from state which strongly supported him while Clinton gets 0. He will also get the 7 members of the Pelosi club not previously committed to him, and the 6 remaining named Edwards delegates. This is 23 more delegates before the Rules committee meets. This means there is a good chance Obama can reach the finish line before the Rules committee gets a chance to move the finish line.; May 21, 2008 12:16 PM
Peter said...: Re Aunt Jean

I don`t think you remember it correct. Edwards declined to answer that question...
I`m not saying that Mrs.Edwards didn`t vote for Hillary but neither John or her has said anything about who she supports. She prefers Clintons healthcare-plan, thats all.
As I said earlier, i like her plan but I`m pretty sure it never would get passed in our country. Obamas plan on the other hand, would be a good improvement and probably could get passed. I think it is better to get something good passed compared to something better that would never get passed. In politics you need to compromise.
Anyway, I don`t think who Mrs.Edwards voted for is all that important, it is more important that she supports Obama in the fall, something you should do as well. It is a good thing that you support Clinton, she is a good candidate, but Obama will win this thing, he has more or less secured it. What we need now, is that the party unite. We need Clinton and Obama supporters to stand together against Mcain aka Bush. We all need to support the nominee, I`m 99,99999% sure Obama will be the nominee, but if he for some strange Hillary gets the nomination, I will support her. I hope you will support Obama, I can see that you don`t like him but I thing you should give him a chance. Remember that HRC and Obama share the same view on most issues.; May 21, 2008 12:22 PM
Martin said...: "I believe in Total Inclusive Democracy for ALL States, unlike most supporters of the Minority /Minority Candidate, BHO."

I want to respond to this, too. I think what happened to MI/FL this year is a damn disgrace. The voters got shafted. But if the states aren't punished for breaking the rules, then that leaves the NEXT election wide open for chaos.

You can't count votes from elections where the candidates were told the elections wouldn't count. Even Clinton said so (at first, before she realized it was her only hope). It's not fair to EITHER candidate. The votes in those two states, as they stand, are a complete joke.

My ideal solution would be a revote in those two states, give both candidates a chance to campaign there (and, ahem, actually have their name on the ballot). But that seems extremely unlikely at this point. It's late in the game, and it's very expensive. It also, in a sense, REWARDS those two states for breaking the rules.

It's a bad situation, no matter how you look at it. No one is happy about it, except the Republicans. But the counting the votes exactly as they were cast in those sham elections would be a disgrace as well.; May 21, 2008 12:25 PM
Yamaka said...: "He removed his name from the MI ballot to show solidarity with the party's decision. He was not ALLOWED to remove his name from the FL ballot, under Florida law."

BHO because of his inexperience chose the DNC villains over the voters. For him the DNC Officials/Politicians are MORE important than the voters. Plus he wanted to pander to Iowa voters, which gave him the first win.

Four people left their names in the ballot in MI.

In FL he wanted his name to be included in the GE ballot. When he did not want their Primary votes, then what logic was there to expect their GE votes? All muddy logic of an inexperienced Novice.

Of course, I don't expect anything clean, straight and logical from a Minority Novice Candidate!

Wait and See.

Alexi Herman's RBC will send BHO and the Obamaniacs into a tail spin towards the Gates of Hell!

:-(; May 21, 2008 12:38 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

"How bizarre that he left his name in FL, all of which shows his INEXPERIENCE"

Sorry, again you run afoul of law. He could not remove his name from the ballot in FL unless he withdrew from the nomination.

re popular vote being "the Game Changer", she can crawl back to the Senate with whatever popular vote argument she wants. She may feel like Al Gore when it's all said and done... more popular votes (using your logic)... but behind in 'electors' ... and it is all about delegates.

HER June surprise is that she will get the Eight Belles treatment from the RBC & SD's. She won't see July, Aug or Sep as a candidate.; May 21, 2008 12:40 PM
Keryl said...: So here's a subtle point, but something I've been thinking about...is there a difference between not voting for someone because of their race/gender and wanting to vote for someone because of their race gender. I have to say, while I don't think they have to, I understand woman who want to vote for a woman for president simply because they finally, finally can vote for a woman. Now they've voted for men before, so it's not out of hate, it's out of pride. But someone who won't vote for a woman because she's a woman seems a much different, and wrong. I believe there is a difference. I think the same is true for African Americans. They're not voting against white people (they voted for Bill Clinton in record numbers), but they can vote for a AA man for president, is that really as bad as someone who won't vote for an AA because of it. There is a very big difference, I think. One is a prideful, and one is hateful.; May 21, 2008 12:44 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: So Many Comments, So Little Time...

Yam, keeps on yammering along, and always will, about Clinton winning the Popular Vote. Popular Vote did Gore a lot of good in the General. Oh that's right, the Popular Vote doesn't count for anything in American politics except perception and how the States Delegates/Electorals should be distributed.

For FLA and Mich, they will have their chance to submit proposals to the DNC later this month. Mich already did, which Clinton rejected. Whether Mich changes that proposal or sticks with it is to be seen, but in any case the popular vote from Mich will not count into how the delegates for that State are seated.

If you have to argue that those PV should count so all 50 States are counted, then you also need to count the PV from the caucas States. That would keep Obama ahead in PVs, as well as States won, and the only important number, DELEGATES won.; May 21, 2008 12:46 PM
Ariane said...: rag218psu - Welcome - it is always good to see civilized discussion and debate and folks pointing out how similar Hillary and Barack are on the issues - -and how VERY different from McCain. People are coming out in huge numbers to support Democrats and we need to do the same in November to save our country from continuing down this very wrong path.; May 21, 2008 12:47 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Regarding Yamaka's math:

1972 + 65 + 177 = 2214

I disagree that Senator Clinton can get 65 out of the remaining 3 primaries. So would propose that Yamaka use the following formula:

1973 + 47 + 194 = 2214

The benefit is that it shows that the number od super delegates is still down from the 200 needed in previous iterations of this "formula for HRC winning."; May 21, 2008 12:48 PM
Yamaka said...: "But that seems extremely unlikely at this point. It's late in the game, and it's very expensive. It also, in a sense, REWARDS those two states for breaking the rules."

Hillary worked very hard for a revote before PA.

But BHO was tactically incompetent, he did NOT want ALL States to participate in the Primary! His aim has been to steal the Nomination by hook or crook.

You still believe the Voters of MI and FL violated the Rule! Absurd.

Listen to what Gov Dean said several times in the past 4 months:

"Voters of MI and FL did NOT violate any Rule - only the Officials and Politicians did."

That being the truth, then do NOT punish the Voters, who are just innocent.

Punish the DNC /Party Officials who were directly responsible for this Fiasco. That's fair and is doable.

That's what RBC will do, and should do.

"Punishing the Voters" is an anathema in a Democracy.

BHO as a Senior Lecturer of Constitutional Law should be knowing this better than anyone!

He was just playing Chicago Dirty Politics!! This is his New Type of Politics and Leadership!!!!

:-(; May 21, 2008 12:48 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

If there's a novice in this Dem campaign, it has to be Hillary & her campaign staff.

Entering the primary season, she had a wide lead in party insiders (SD's), all the momentum, all the money... it was her nomination to loose.

And she did. Not very skillful on her part. Nor was Maestro's skill evident in her campaign.

She blew it and it's now reduced to desperate measures to win. IF the positions were reversed, Hillary would be rattling off her lead in pledged delegates, states, etc. That she can't shows that she, and her campaign staff, are novices on the national stage.; May 21, 2008 12:50 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Keryl the AA voted for Clinton because there were only white men on the ballot DAAAAAA. You know got and well the reason the AApop is voting for Obama is because of the AA blood in him. It has nothing to do with if they think he's the right person or not. That is what I call racist.I'm not saying that there isn't women out there that will for for Hillary because she is a woman because there is but I also think that most of them take her experience and what she wants to do in account.End of story.Jean; May 21, 2008 12:54 PM
Aunt Jean said...: jsedona I think not only the way things happened in her campaign but the media played a hugh part in what is happening I don't what you say!!! Jean; May 21, 2008 12:56 PM
Unknown said...: I agree with Oregon Dem, for Hill to get 65 she has to win PR by 81%, Montana 60% and South Dakota 64%, or some such propertions, which does not look very likely.

Yamaka/Subodh:Republican, stop trying to spread chaos here, u go look at u'r mcShame and have your imaginary conversations with him :); May 21, 2008 12:57 PM
Yamaka said...: To ALL the Anti-Women and Anti-Clinton Crowd:

Most women, working and older and Latino Americans - the constituency of HRC - will wage a pitchfork WAR in Denver for the legitimacy of Majority Votes in Democracy.

The Democratic Party, if it keeps practicing undemocratic Rules and Procedures, will follow the fates of Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry!

I want HRC to take a page from Ted Kennedy in 1980. Punish the Party for its undemocratic digressions.

Then emerge like Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Majority always wins in Democracy, folks if you believe it or not.

:-); May 21, 2008 1:00 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: Aunt Jean said:

"You know got and well the reason the AApop is voting for Obama is because of the AA blood in him. It has nothing to do with if they think he's the right person or not. "

I have just two initials for you: BS

Some may have, but I'll bet there were a few that are fed up with the government and are ready for a real change that only someone like Obama can bring.; May 21, 2008 1:03 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Once again they put a SD's name on obama without him saying I endorse or I will back or I will vote in his own words now how bias is that.[me thinks very].In case you are wondering who I'm talking about it is rollins and courtney. I wonder how many more there is.? Jean; May 21, 2008 1:04 PM
Peter said...: There are probably some AA who vote for Obama beacuse he is half-AA, but there are at the same time a lot of white people (like in kentucky) who vote for Hillary Clinton because she is white.

I think it is extremly rude and racist of you to call AAs-racist just because they vote for Obama. You should be more careful when you say stuff like that, think of this country`s history and the way AA has been treated, when we for the first time in the history have a serious candidate with a chance of winning who is part-AA, don`t you think that is a valid reason to vote for him?
I think race is a factor in states like KY and WV, mostly because they don`t know that many AA-people, they have a low education etc, they vote for the "white-candidate" because of the fear or hate against the "black-candidate". I don`t think there are many AA who vote for Obama because they "hate" Hillary and her skin-color, they vote for obama because they are proud, that is not anything close to racism.

I do find your comments partly racist and that offends me and I am white. But your comments are not as bad as Yamakas. I do hope you could think a little bit more before you right these things Aunt Jean.; May 21, 2008 1:05 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

Hillary hurt herself badly in the Fall '07 debates. I believe that her disasterous debate in Philly (the flip-flop on ID's for NY illegal aliens) was the start of her slide.

IMO, Hillary's largest issue has been her credability. Can people trust her.

Bill really hurt her in in SC. I don't think that Kennedy would have come out for Obama (then at least) if it wasn't for Bills comments there.

I would agree that Obama got somewhat of a free ride early in the campaign. owever, the 24x7 coverage of Rev. Wright was certainly to Hillary's benefit. She couldn't capitalize on it.

Then she gets caught in a lie about sniper fire. It reenforced the issues people had with credability. Her negatives rose.

So, was the focus on sniper fire a legitimate issue? I think so. But in any event the MSM likes to build them up and be the first to kick them when they're down. Sometimes deservedly so...; May 21, 2008 1:05 PM
JayW said...: Not that it matters since there is NO CHANCE of HRC getting the nomination...

but, how could she be trusted to fix the economy or balance the budget when she has already sent her own campaign into financial ruin? If she cant keep her own campaign above water, why would anyone think she could fix America's economy?

OBAMA 08; May 21, 2008 1:05 PM
Yamaka said...: Hummmmmmmmmm

I told you I am not Subodh.

I am a Delegate standing up for Hillary. I cannot be a Republican.

I am pulling the Party to the Center, where the most of the American Electorate are, if you know any politics.

Now the Democratic Party and DCW are infested with the FAR Left Liberals of Tax and Spend Ideology, the perennial losers of GE in the last 30 years.

Please tell me how BHO is better than John Kerry?

With his vast Name Recognition, and Experience (plus a War Hero), he was routed out in 2004. He got 59 million votes but 251 EVs!

With a poor name recognition and least experience in National Politics, how in the world you expect your BHO to be elected in the FALL?

All a fantasy! The Party will lose WH and the Congress.

Wait and See.

:-(; May 21, 2008 1:06 PM
Unknown said...: Yam, u tell me how she is going to win the 65 pledged delegates as per your ever repetitive math, by what margins are she going to win the rest of the three contests to win 65 pledged delegates. Come on take a shot at it before just publishing some random numbers there.; May 21, 2008 1:13 PM
JayW said...: Yam cant do math...

he was the kid that rode the short bus to school and sat in the back...

you know, the kid that was the window licker.; May 21, 2008 1:16 PM
Emit R Detsaw said...: You all are making it too easy for Yam.

The key is not how she will win 65 more pledged delegates (Yam will simply have to reply - count FL and MI), the quest should be how she could recover the pledged delegate gap to where she get's more pledged delegates than Obama.

Can't be done. ;o); May 21, 2008 1:19 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: GOOD MORNING AMERICA!

What a wonderful day it is :)

Total number of delegates needed to secure the nomination according to the current DNC rules:

OBAMA 63
Clinton 245

OBAMA - our next President of the UNITED States of America ;); May 21, 2008 1:20 PM
Aunt Jean said...: jpsedona all they have done is bash Hillary as far as the sniper fire that is so stupid. About wright wow maybe 2 2.5 weeks and then it wasn't that bad so pleaseeeee.Yes you can trust her but you can't trust obama.Jean; May 21, 2008 1:20 PM
Unknown said...: but even the easy can not be achieved , and Yam does not put any number forward without calculating FL and MI, he is getting 65 delegates out of the last three contests, for which Hill has to win all three remaining contests at least 64:36 margin.; May 21, 2008 1:23 PM
jpsedona said...: In FL today, Hillary said:

"We’ve got to change the way we nominate presidents for a lot of reasons."

Could one of these be because she's losing???

"I personally believe these caucuses are terribly unrepresentative."

Said like someone who lost the caucuses and was inept at contesting them

"I think that what’s happened with Florida and Michigan raises serious questions about the principles of our party."

She could have added "where we aren't allowed to change the rules after the contest is over. Our principles should be more like judging in Olympic ice skating."; May 21, 2008 1:23 PM
JayW said...: Aunt Jean.

Maybe YOU can trust HRC... but I can not. She made up lies and stories to make herself look good? Sniper fire? Seriously. It isnt like she miss-spoke once... she told the same lies multiple times.

Having served in the military myself, I have NO respect for her after that. NONE. ZERO.

You see Aunty Jean... some people actually do put their lives on the line for this country and have dealt with sniper fire. For her to "pretend" to be one of those people is deplorable.; May 21, 2008 1:26 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Pretty amazing - according to RCP - Senator Obama is AHEAD in:

Total delegates
Pledged delegates
Super Delegates
Popular vote (including Florida)
Obama avg. +12.8 over Clinton
Obama avg. +4.3 over McCain
___

Then when you toss in that Obama has won more contests/states

It is just AWESOME!

MIND BOGGLING!

OBAMA '08/'12
.

p.s. Obama's rally in Florida just finished it was great! What a huge crowd!; May 21, 2008 1:29 PM
jpsedona said...: Aunt Jean,

Your perspective on the media bashing Hillary may be colored by your strong feelings about her candidacy. She will blame everyone but herself (including sexism) for the trouble in her campaign. The fact is, she came in with high name recognition and extremely high negatives. If she can't overcome the media in a primary, how would you expect her to do any better in the GE?

The only people that Hillary can blame for losing will be herslef, Bill, and her campaign staff.; May 21, 2008 1:30 PM
Yamaka said...: hmmmmmmmm and Others:

As of this minute, there are 86 Ds and 243 SDs outstanding.

HRC has so far 1973 TDs, she needs another 238 (of any combination) to clinch 2211, when the Hurdle is 2210.

This Math is Possible and quite feasible when PR puts her total Popular Vote near 150K on June 4th.

SDs can never Nominate the Minority Candidate to go for the GE, IMO.

Folks:

She got the most votes of all the votes polled. That's what is important in Democracy, if you all believe in it.

Not some moribund Party and its arcane Rules!

HRC must go with her Majority Constituency to Denver and Demand the Party to Nominate the Majority Candidate!

If not, walk out, and let her re-emerge back in 2012 like Ronald Reagan did in 1980.

Because Majority of People are with her.

:-); May 21, 2008 1:32 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: jpsedona said: In FL today, Hillary said:

"We’ve got to change the way we nominate presidents for a lot of reasons."
____________

jpsedona -

That is HILARIOUS! She didn't say that when Bill Clinton won two times! Bill was in the White House for 8 years if he thought that the way America picks a president then he could have done something about it back then and he didn't - so that go to show that Hillary is just being a sore loser.

WAKE UP AMERICA - IT IS TIME TO UNITE AND SUPPORT OUR NOMINEE - OBAMA '08; May 21, 2008 1:33 PM
Pablo said...: Yam,

Two quick things. "Majority always wins in Democracy, folks if you believe it or not" Tell that to Al Gore.

Please explain the different policy issues that are so so far left. Surely not HRC's more liberal health care reform. You'll eventually have to realize they are both very close on many of the changes they wish to implement.; May 21, 2008 1:34 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

you said: "She got the most votes of all the votes polled. That's what is important in Democracy, if you all believe in it"

Actually, this would infer that you do not support the Constitution of the united States where the election of the United States President is through the Electoral College which preserves States' Rights. Perhaps your time would be better spent in changing the Constitution?; May 21, 2008 1:40 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Pretty cool photo on the top headline right now at:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

Pretty cleaver person that thought that one up!

.; May 21, 2008 1:44 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah obama IS NOT THE NOMINEE PLUS HILLARY HAS MORE VOTES. OBAMA IS THE SORE LOSER!!!!! JPSEDONA THE MEDIA HAD ABIG HELP IN IT AND IT DOESN'T MATTER IF YOU ADMIT IT OR NOT YOU KNOW IT DID.THAT MAN WILL NEVER BE MY PRESIDENT UNLESS? PABLO YOU ALSO KNOW THAT IT WAS A REPUBLICAN COURT THAT GAVE IT TO BUSH OVER GORE.OF COURSE YOU WON'T ADMIT THAT EITHER. YOU OBAMA SUPPORTERS ARE SO BLIND TO WHAT IS REALLY GOING ON. aALSO SHE CAN WIN THE OFFICE OF PRESIDENT BY HERSELF NOT LIKE OBAMA WITHOUT HILLARY'S HELP HE WILL NEVER WIN IT AND THAT IS ALSO A FACT AND YOU WON'T ADMIT. I HAVE HIS NUMBER AND IT'S NOT GOOD. JEAN; May 21, 2008 1:48 PM
Richard said...: Oregon Dem (and others) - I am very interested in continuing our discussion, and I, too, have been thinking about post-concession options. I have some web space and would be willing to set up a threaded forum on it for us to continue our discussion on if people determine this is not the place. If people are interested, I would be glad to do so. All will be welcome to sign up, regardless of political persuasion, but racism and disrespect would not be tolerated (and it would be possible to enforce bans on people who perpetuated such).; May 21, 2008 1:49 PM
Aunt Jean said...: pablo that is because he has copied everything Hillary has said just put a little twist on them. Jean; May 21, 2008 1:50 PM
Aunt Jean said...: jayw ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha . I didn't figure you would know what LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL is Jean; May 21, 2008 1:52 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Richard and others-

I don't see why we don't just all stay right here on this Open Thread. As far as I know this website and this Open Thread is not going anywhere, is it?

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 21, 2008 1:54 PM
JayW said...: Aunt Jean,

I know you have limited mental capacity... but let me try to explain this so you understand.

Jean...It doesnt matter who you vote for. It also doesnt matter if some HRC supporters dont vote for Obama in the general election. He will still win.

Look at the polls.

When americans are polled and given the option of voting for Obama or McCain... who is ahead? Obama every time. Now all of you Hillary supporters that dont want to vote for Obama are already factored into those polls. Guess what... Obama still wins!!!

You have literally no say in this.

He WILL be your president... so get used to it. There is NOTHING you can do to stop it.

That makes me happy!!!!; May 21, 2008 1:56 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: The ONLY thing that is important is the DELEGATES.

As of right this minute

Obama needs ONLY 64 more

Hillary needs 246!

YES WE CAN!
NO SHE CAN'T!
YES WE CAN!

H
Obama '08
P
E

America UNITE!; May 21, 2008 1:59 PM
countjellybean said...: Here is a little more math behind Hillary Clinton's contnuing argument that she is ahead in the popular vote.

California cast 6,745,485 votes for Kerry, and had 5,066,993 primary votes cast in 2008. That works out to a ratio of 75.% between primary votes in 2008 and Democrat GE votes in 2004.

Using the same method, the ratios for some of the other states with open primaries are:

Georgia: 77.7%
Illinois: 70.5%
Missouri: 65.5%
Tennessee: 60.3% (least of the group)
Indiana: 131% (Operation Chaos?)
Wisconsin: 74.8%

Now, Michigan cast 2,479,183 for Kerry in 2004.

The Clinton math behind her claim to the lead in the popular vote that utilizes 328,309 for Clinton, zero for Obama.

328,309 is 13.2% of 2,479,183.

13.2%

Not 75% like California.

Not 60% like Tennessee.

13.2%.

The Clinton math utilizes 13.2% of Michigan's voters.

That, my friends, is the Clinton definition of Full Democracy.

(Data obtained from GreenPapers.); May 21, 2008 2:04 PM
RobH said...: I’ve got some new math for you all to contemplate, and God willing, this is hopefully my last tilt at it. Not Yam’s “myth” math, which all sane readers no will never happen, but also not the fiction as it stands today which is: “2025 required to nominate, and Florida and Michigan not seated and no votes”. We all know that’s not happening, either.

What happens if the RBC elect to seat FL and MI with a 50% penalty, both pledged and supers, no 69:59 deal is struck in MI, and MI uncommitted goes to Obama (as exit polls indicated that 94% of the uncommitted would have voted for Obama or Edwards – check here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_Democratic_primary%2C_2008)?

Revised total delegates becomes 4234 (4050 plus ½ of 368 total MI and FL delegates.)
Revised number required to secure nomination becomes 2118 (1/2 of 4234, plus 1.)

Obama’s new “to date” delegates become 2029 (1962 today plus 34.5 FL pledged, 27.5 MI pledged, 2.5 FL supers, 2.5 MI supers). Obama’s “to-go” number is 89 (vs. 63 today.)

Clinton’s new “to date” delegates become 1876.5 ( 1780 today plus 52.5 FL pledged, 36.5 MI pledged, 4 FL supers, 3.5 MI supers.) Clinton’s “to-go” number is 241.5.

Regarding Obama’s to go number:

He’ll pick up 6 add-ons this weekend and next, 25 in PR (assuming 45:55) and 17 in MT/SD (assuming 55:45). Thus, if he picks up just 41 super delegate endorsements by 5/31 or 6/3, it’s over then – even with MI and FL. (Not impossible, but tough.)

After 6/3:

It’s certain he will pick up an additional 20 add-ons between 6/7 and 6/21 (end of allocations), and the 6 Supers in the Pelosi club will announce on 6/4. So his real “to-go” is just 15….exactly the number of Edwards remaining pledged delegates (5 in Iowa, 3 in NH, 1 in SC, 5.5 in Florida.) If you think those Edwards delegates may ultimately go to Obama, then this thing is OVER, with FL and MI, on 6/21.

QED, IMHO.

If anybody wants the spreadsheet, so you can watch the countdown yourself…let me know.; May 21, 2008 2:06 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: ANOTHER SD for OBAMA!

DNC Wayne Dowdy (MS) endorsed Obama

Now needed to win:

Obama 62
Clinton 245

I wonder if we will get down to 50 by the end of the day ;); May 21, 2008 2:07 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Richard: Yes it would be good to stay in contact. I was thinking that once the convention is over how many of us would be coming here rather than elsewhere to find out what the latest news is regarding the GE and the electoral college. Not sure what Oreo and the others have in mind for this site at that time.; May 21, 2008 2:10 PM
RobH said...: Leah,

If you slogged through that previous post, great. If you didn't, my point is just that it makes sense to get used to some new target numbers, cause they're coming whether we like it or not.

I've been the biggest chsmpion of counting him down to 2025, and with all his certain pick-ups to come, he's just a dozen short right now. But by 5/31 we won't be aiming 2025, we'll be aiming at something else. 2118 is my bet, as it was Chuck Todd's (who I trust)
last night. So I thought I'd just run it now.; May 21, 2008 2:10 PM
RobH said...: See ya' later, GTG watch Manchester United take out Chelsea in the Champion's League Final.; May 21, 2008 2:11 PM
Peter said...: I agree with you Rob.

I think 2025 in theory is enough, but Obama also need a victory that sounds the best as possible for everyone, that means including MI and FL after a more or less fair solution has been found. 50% off for all pledged delegates from boths states is likely and MI go 69-59/2 in florida Obama will probably get most Edwards delegates, Florida also divided by 2.
After such a solution is in place, it will be impossible for Clinton to us MI in a popular vote count without giving the popular "uncomitted" to Obama, so that would also solve the popular vote nonesense from Clinton-camp.
I think such a solution could mean that Obama will win this thing by ALL measures, that means popular vote including FL and MI (and caucus-states off course, even though Clinton don`t include them, which is laughable considering her FL/MI talk).; May 21, 2008 2:24 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: RobH-

Yep I quickly scanned through both of the big posts above that had numbers.

I understand the number might change May 31st but it hasn't yet so I am using the current DNC number ;)

Just like we now should be using the current popular vote number without FL and MI - the popular vote that Obama IS winning and the one that Hillary is ignoring and try to spin into something other than reality ;); May 21, 2008 2:31 PM
Ariane said...: Keryl said: "Is there a difference between not voting for someone because of their race/gender and wanting to vote for someone because of their race gender. I have to say, while I don't think they have to, I understand woman who want to vote for a woman for president simply because they finally, finally can vote for a woman. Now they've voted for men before, so it's not out of hate, it's out of pride. But someone who won't vote for a woman because she's a woman seems a much different, and wrong. I believe there is a difference. I think the same is true for African Americans. They're not voting against white people (they voted for Bill Clinton in record numbers), but they can vote for a AA man for president, is that really as bad as someone who won't vote for an AA because of it. There is a very big difference, I think. One is a prideful, and one is hateful."

I Absolutely agree with you. Someone else here (Tyler maybe?) recently wrote something abut that and I responded.

But there is a corollary to it - It's not like most women would vote for just ANY woman over a man, and it's not like most African Americans would vote for just ANY AA over any European American. So it ís not like they are only paying attention to gender or race.

I am really sick of hearing accusations that African Americans are such racists for voting for Obama - and acting like that is equivalent to a white person who refuses to vote for any Black candidate. Black folk have been voting for white candidates for everythign from President to Dog Catcher ever since they got the right to vote. As you said, they voted in huge numbers for Bill Clinton. And they did not vote in such high percentages for previous black presidential candidates. AND there are even direct examples in this primary season where if they are "racists" they're being pretty darn inconsistent. For example in North Carolina where the majority of black voters voted for Kay Hagan, a white woman, over Jim Neal, a Black man.

Yet still we have to listen to people who keep saying "They're only voting for him because of race."; May 21, 2008 2:38 PM
Yamaka said...: jp:

Constitution does not intervene a SD using the Majority votes as a criterion for voting in the Primary, last time I checked!

We may have to start thinking about Electoral Reform soon. We need to get rid of the EC as much as possible. Very few American voters know why and or how the EC works!

----------------------------

pablo:

On taxation and on crime & punishment and welfare reform BHO is FAR Left of HRC.

He is a bona-fide Far Left liberal of the type of Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry & Kennedy, IMO.

On Healthcare Reform she may appear to be liberal, but truly she is NOT. She wants a comprehensive Healthcare for ALL in order to enhance the Economic Competitiveness of American Workers, so as to increase the wealth of the country as a whole.

Clintons follow Triangulation Philosophy in Governing, which BHO has vehemently criticized during earlier Debates!

Read more about his voting pattern in IL. He is too much of a Liberal for me. I am a Left Leaning Centrist.

:-); May 21, 2008 2:39 PM
Unknown said...: I have a silly elementary question: how does Obama currently have more pledged delegates in New Hampshire (10) than Clinton (9), when she won the popular vote?

Is this due to released Edwards delegates?; May 21, 2008 2:42 PM
Ariane said...: Oregon Dem and softspoken22 (and others), you were saying what about future discussion when the nomination fight is over. I dont know what will be up here at demconwatch but if you are looking for another place we can discuss, have you checked out Al Giordano's blog The Field at ruralvotes.com? There are some very good, insightful posts there and some of y'all might enjoy it. And very accurate predictions on the primaries.

and I'm sure if someone here starts their own blog you will post about it.
there are some very informed and interesting folks here that I have enjoyed hearing from.; May 21, 2008 2:42 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: shakrat -

Delegates are not awarded by who has the most votes in that state. They are awarded by Congressional District. So since Obama has more pledged delegates in NH that means he received more delegates because of how the congressional districts voted and how many delegates each district had.

We must always keep in mind that popular vote has NOTHING to do with this nomination process other than to determine who wins the congressional district and therefore to which candidate the delegates will be awarded to.

I hope that helps you.; May 21, 2008 2:52 PM
Yamaka said...: ariane:

John Lewis and most of the Black Caucus abandoned Hillary because a Black candidate was on the ballot.

They knew her for 20 years - were her friends in fact.

But when BHO came along they deserted her en mase because of skin color.

Won't you think there is Black racism?

IMO, this only triggered the White Flight, and race became one of the key issues during this Primary, and will continue in the GE.

They started it. Whites will continue it in the GE.

Majority should and will win over Minority. That's only fair.

:-); May 21, 2008 2:56 PM
Oregon Dem said...: shakrat:

I hate to correct Leah since she is usually right ;-)

and her explanation is quite correct, but you are as well.

NH was tied 9-9 between HRC and BHO after the Congressional District delegates were awarded. In order to get more than half you have to get alot more than just 50% +1 vote.

AND

John Edwards was viable and did get some delegates.

One NH delegate (Joshua Denton) has now endorsed Senator Obama, so that former Edwards delegate moved into the Obama pledged delegate number for NH.

Three more Edwards delegates have not endorsed anyone yet so the number is still fluid.; May 21, 2008 3:03 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: skatrat-

One more example of this is Missouri

Obama won 49% total pop. vote
Clinton won 48%

but they both ended up each with 36 pledged delegates based on the congressional district results.

.; May 21, 2008 3:09 PM
Independent Voter said...: Aunt Jean - you said "Dave cnn said it was 11%. on race .Jean"

NO THEY DID NOT! I was correct when I said that 21% said race was important and they went HEAVILY toward HELLERY!

You might want to actually do your "homework" before posting INACCURATE information Jean.; May 21, 2008 3:15 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oregon Dem-

Hmmmm... my mistake.

I could have sworn that Obama had 10 - 9 on his page for NH before the Denton switch from Edwards.

Guess I'm 'starting' to get old ;); May 21, 2008 3:16 PM
Peter said...: RE Ariane and Keryl

I agree 100% with you. I do think that both sexism and racism has been a factor in this race, I think it has been more visible for Obama since he has been "punished" by it in states like KY and WV, this has gotten a lot of focus. I think Clinton have been "punished" more evenly across several states, I think it has been a factor but not that measurable and visible. White persons NOT voting for Obama in KY and stating race as factor in exit polls is easy to recognise, similar exit polls regarding sex is not that easy to measure.

I do think race and gender has been positive for both candidates as well. And i do think woman voting for Clinton because she is a strong woman is positive, african-american voting for Obama because he is a strong african-american candidate is also positive. That is not about sexism or racism, that is about identifying with the candidate. I get pretty upset when idiots like Yamaka call african-americans (in general) racists because they vote heavily for Obama. It is NOT racism, it is identifying with the candidate and a sign of proudness, a positive thing. It could be compared to a state voting heavy for a candidate coming from that state, they know the candidate, they identify with the candidate because of similarity in their history etc. It is the same thing regarding gender and race.

HRC has been a strong candidate all the way, she gets the majority of the female vote because she is as strong female candidate. She has had a good hold on the female vote, all the way. Obama didn`t get as much support from african-american voters in the beginning, but when he won Iowa and did well in NH, they could see a strong african-american candidate that actually could win. That is why his support from AA increased.

So, HRC is a strong female candidate, that is why she gets a lot of female voters.

Obama is a strong african-american (or half) candidate, that is why he gets a lot of african-american candidates.

African-americans and female voters are voting for their candidates because they are GOOD and STRONG candidates, they identify with them. They DON`t vote for them because of racism or sexism. Voting FOR someone is not racism or sexism, voting AGAINST someone is sexism or racism. That is a HUGE difference, a difference idiots (racists) like Yamaka should learn.; May 21, 2008 3:17 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

I was just pointing out that you said "That's what is important in Democracy, if you all believe in it" when you referring to popular vote arguments.

You are correct that the SD's can choose whatever criteria that they like for supporting a candidate... the color of their socks... flip of a coin ... even the amount baggage they carry. And yes, they can even use Hillamath. But the real question is how many of them want to appear to overturn the elected delegates? My guess is very very few.; May 21, 2008 3:17 PM
Unknown said...: Thanks for the answers, Leah and Oregon Dem.

I noticed the discrepancy because the Obama site's summary page has the delegate count as 10:9, but NH colored in Clinton blue.

I guess the map is supposed to reflect popular vote victories?; May 21, 2008 3:26 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

you said that "John Lewis and most of the Black Caucus abandoned Hillary because a Black candidate was on the ballot"

Because? This is just not being truthful. Bill Clinton stuck his foot in his mouth in SC, angered many blacks that were supporting Hillary including Lewis. When Bill tried to marginalize Obama by comparing him to Jesse, he angered people. When he also said "This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen.", he drove a stake in the ground separating Hillary's campaign from long time black supporters.

Yeah, the Maestro for you.; May 21, 2008 3:28 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: skatrat-

Yep. On Obama's site they usually go by who has been declared winner of the state on that map.

But for Texas the map on the results page is stripped for both candidates since she won the primary and Obama won the caucus. But in Texas Obama won the most pledged delegates so on the map on the front page of BarackObama.com they have Texas lit up for Obama because he won the state after the primary and caucus is added together ;); May 21, 2008 3:33 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oregon Dem said: "NH was tied 9-9 between HRC and BHO after the Congressional District delegates were awarded."
______

I just wanted to comment on this.

This is a good reason that a state should not be declared until all the CD delegates have been awarded to the candidates.

1) Obama and Hillary were TIED before the Edwards delegate switch.

2) A tie is not a win so Hillary should not be putting NH in her win column.

3) Now that it is Obama 10 - Hillary 9 .. The media should be reporting NH as an Obama win when they are talking about who won which state.; May 21, 2008 3:42 PM
Oregon Dem said...: Leah:

Oh my - I have to disagree with you regarding NH!

I do not think one can go back 4 months and rewrite history.

The statement that:

"Hillary won the popular but due, in part to a released Edwards delegate endorsing Senator Obama, NH will vote 10-9 for Senator Obama it the convention."

is accurate and a fact.

At least currently as there still are 3 more NH Edwards delegates so the final number will be different.; May 21, 2008 4:05 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oregon Dem-

I was talking about when it was a TIE 9 - 9
Back when it was a tie it should have been mentioned in the media that they TIED. That was long long before the Edwards delegate issue ;); May 21, 2008 4:14 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Oregon Dem-

I believe this is part of the problem that we/they (the American public) is having right now.

We know by the statistics that 'many' of the Hillary supporters are not college educated. Many in Appalachia I am assuming don't use the internet on a daily basis. So many people are only getting their information from the TV. FOXNEWS, CNN, etc. And the media talks about popular votes of a state more than they do 'delegates'. So now with Hillary going around telling everyone she has the popular vote lead - there are TONS of MISled people out there with the wrong information.

If the media were to focus more on the DELEGATES that have been won - and who has won them - and who is in the lead - and stop talking about pop. vote, then it would be much easier to get the people to understand reality ;); May 21, 2008 4:20 PM
Richard said...: RobH - I like your calculations, although I think that they will only apply the 50% penalty to pledged delegates, not supers (exactly opposite of how it should be done, but remember that these PLEOs are their colleagues). I think also that the 69-59 compromise will be accepted. This is DCW Scenario 4.

Obama's current total would be 2055 and his number to go would be 107. Obama will get at least 37 of the remaining pledged delegates. He will pick up at least 10 of Edwards' 14.5 remaining uncommitted pledged delegates. He picks up 26 add-on delegates over the next month. That leaves 107-(37+10+26) = 34 superdelegates needed. That's just 16% of the 212 remaining supers.; May 21, 2008 4:32 PM
Yamaka said...: "When Bill tried to marginalize Obama by comparing him to Jesse, he angered people."

jp:

Bill's statement was historically accurate. Gore got less than HRC.

How is Obama "superior" to Jesse, the Son of the Black American Heritage? Obama a biracial man who grew up in a comfortable White household, but chose to go to attend the Afrocentric Exclusively Black TUCC of Wright!

How is it that Obama got marginalized by that Statement of Fact?

Bill Clinton is the only Democrat who got elected twice to the WH since FDR.

Is there any Democrat to beat him?

Of course, for the anti-Clinton anti-Woman Crowd Bill is a pain in their neck!; May 21, 2008 4:37 PM
Peter said...: I am PRO Obama. But I am NOT anti-woman or anti Clinton. I am pro Clinton and women.

But, I am sick and tired of your hate-spreading, thats why I am about to declear myself ANTI YAMAKA.

I think you are a McCain/Bush voter who writes on this site to spread negativity. 90% of your posts are BS or lies. You constantly spread hate and racism. I am sorry to attack you personally but I am fed up with your hate.; May 21, 2008 4:42 PM
jpsedona said...: Richard,

If it comes down to penalizing SD's or pledged, but not both, then I'd prefer to see them penalize the SD's since they (not the voters) bear the responsibility for the current mess in FL &MI.

However, I do see them penalizing the pledged delegates. It would be justice if they didn't seat any SD's from those states, but I think that's not very likely.

With respect to the current MI & FL options, I cannot see the DNC / RBC penalizing Fl and then not penalizing MI. A 69-59 split is possible, but if they reduce FL to a 1/2 vote per pledged, I would be stunned if they didn't do the same thing to MI. (especially considering MI's long standing attempts to move their primary up)

If they penalize both delegations in the same fashion, there's not a scenario on DCW that covers that outcome.; May 21, 2008 4:45 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

Bill tried to marginalize him by saying he was just like Jackson which meant a minor candidate without broad appeal.

Unfortunately for you, Bill is not the Clinton running. Instead the second string team is having their chance, and running her campaign like she was entitled to win.; May 21, 2008 4:52 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Yakama-

I AM WOMAN, HEAR ME ROAR...

There aren't any anti-women people here on this thread. So why don't you take your hateful PROPAGANDA some place else - like over on a republican website.

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 21, 2008 4:58 PM
Peter said...: I think they need to cut the pledged delegate by at least 50%. Remember that the votes in MI is far from a realistic result if you look at the candidates actual standing with voters in MI. The same with Florida, Obama wasn`t able to campaign there and was much less known than Clinton, that is still true. I think cutting the delegates in half and giving a 69-59 result in MI and FL as is. I think thats fair it shows people that the votes count to some degree but that they don`t reflect the truth if it had been a normal voting where both candidates had been on the ballot and where allowed to campaign.
The problem though is that Clinton seems to be on some sort of war path with this, she rejected the 69-59 proposal and it doesn`t look like she is that interested in a compromise. I think there need to be some backroom deal where people make it clear to Clinton that a compromise is needed and that the alternative is Clinton being presented as someone who stands in the way of solution.

There is NO way, the delegates will be seated as is and Clinton knows this, so I don`t understand her recent behaviour, i thought she cared more about the party.

We should have a fair solution, voting in PR, SD and MT should go as planned and Clinton should withdraw after Obama secures the nomination including MI and FL(probably june 3th). Clinton should hold a good speech and tell everyone that voted for her in the primary that Obama is the best solution for our country. I she dosen`t do that, I think she will be politically dead and we could risk a McCain-victory this fall.

The last MI/FL nonesense from Clinton makes me fear a situation where we have to wait for the convention.; May 21, 2008 4:59 PM
Yamaka said...: "Yamaka call african-americans (in general) racists because they vote heavily for Obama. It is NOT racism, it is identifying with the candidate and a sign of proudness, a positive thing."

Peter:

You have the right to spin it whatever way you want.

I am just reminding that most Blacks violated the calling of Dr. King: " Judge a person not on the color of the skin, but by the strength of this character".

When AA went 92% to a Black candidate what do you call it? In fact, they don't know him as much as they know Jesse, who has been in the Civil Rights Movement for a long long time.

If they went for Jesse 92% I will call it their pride; when they went to BHO I call it Black Racism.

There is a distinction here.

:-(; May 21, 2008 5:07 PM
Peter said...: Brilliant answer from the Obama-campaign, "we are willing to go more than halfway"
"We're willing to work to make sure that we can achieve a compromise. And I guess the question is: is Senator Clinton's campaign willing to do the same?"

This puts pressure on Clinton and tells the american people that Obama dosen`t oppose seating MI/FL delegates, the question is if Clinton is willing to compromize or if she just use MI/FL to promote her own case. I like this answer from Axelrod. I think Clinton will need to agree to a compromize publicly or she would be portrayed as a selfish person putting herself over a fair solution.
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/05/obama_open_to_fla_mich_comprom.html; May 21, 2008 5:08 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Everyone white, black, yellow, brown, and green --- remember this

"Judge a person not on the color of the skin, but by the strength of this character."

The character of Senator Obama is very STRONG!

Vote OBAMA - the candidate with honesty, integrity, intelligence, wisdom, compassion, eloquence and grace.

H
Obama '08
P
E

.; May 21, 2008 5:15 PM
jpsedona said...: Peter,

Hillary's only chance is to defend FL & MI's moving up their primaries in violation. She cannot afford to have the delegations (SD, pledged or bot) cut by half.

Given Terry McAuliffe wanted to impose 100% loss of delegates in MI in 2004, it's a tough argument for Clinton's campaign to say "hey, they didn't play by the rules but don't penalize them". I'm sure she feels terrible about all those poooor voters...; May 21, 2008 5:17 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 5:19 PM
UUbuntu said...: Peter, JPSedona, Leah and anyone else --

A few days ago, RobH recommended a quarantine on Yamaka interactions.

For a variety of reasons, I've found it to be a good idea.; May 21, 2008 5:24 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Hillary Rodham Clinton says she is willing to take her fight to seat Florida and Michigan delegates to the convention...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080521/ap_on_el_pr/democrats_florida

.; May 21, 2008 5:26 PM
Peter said...: I know she dosen`t care about the voters, but she can`t afford to "lose face". It would be dificult for her to say "I don`t want i compromize, I now they broke the rules, but i don`t want a compromize". When Axelrod says Obama would agree to a compromize it puts Clinton in a situation where she would need to decide wheter whe only wants an unfair solution where she gets more than 100 delegates more than Obama.
She can`t go for the last one and still say that she wants to protect "the voters will", because even the exit polls shows clearly that Clinton never would have won with 55% against 0 for Obama in Mi if Obama was on the ballot. So there is no way Clinton can defend a solution in MI where she gets her delegates and Obama none.
I think Clinton has two choices, win some political capital be agreeing to a compromize, that way she would look as the person who "helped" seating the delegates. Her other choice is to take this to the convention, losing it there (which is certain) and creating a tense situation amoung voters and the party. I don`t think she could choose the last way without losing a lot of credibility with both voters and the party.

Obama has shown will to negotiate a compromize, the pressure is back on Clinton .; May 21, 2008 5:30 PM
jpsedona said...: yam,

You said: "With this, she has to just keep quiet between June 4th and Aug 24th. Relax and tour the country."

I agree with you. If she doesn't want to be vilanized by her own party that's her only course after Obama reaches the magic number.

She is not stupid but is caught in a conundrum... 1) this may be her only shot at the nomination 2) she wants to position herself for 2012 if Obama loses the GE. For #1, she has to stand against her own party and fear alienating party leaders that supported her. For #2, she can't fight all the way to the convention if she's clearly the loser.; May 21, 2008 5:32 PM
jpsedona said...: Leah,

Her threatening to take it all the way to the convention is her leveraging to try to get MI & FL seated her way. It's a threat and nothing more. She's lose in the credentials committee and there will be more Obama delegates on the floor. Although Hillary supporters would consider this truthful, in reality it's just a bluff...; May 21, 2008 5:34 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: WOW this is the top headline at FoxNews:

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/05/21/trail-of-tall-tales-hillary-clinton/

.; May 21, 2008 5:38 PM
Peter said...: Re Tyler
He agree with you and RobH.
Re jpsedona
I agree with you and i think Axelrod quickly called her bluff. The only scenario where Obama haven`t secured the pledged majority is if both FL and MI are seated in full and Obama don`t get any delegates from MI. That scenario would NEVER happen, that would create anger with a lot of MI voters, because several of those who voted jan 17. supports Obama and he probably had a lot of "hidden" support from supporters who didn`t bother to vote because of the situation. Exit polls from those who voted, shows Clinton with 46, Obama with 35 and Edwards with 12%. Even with such a unlikely solution (it would NEVER happen) Obama would still be in a clear lead.

By the way, Obama just confirmed he is going to Puerto Rico this saturday; May 21, 2008 5:47 PM
jpsedona said...: Leah,

Don't get too worked up about the Fox article, part 1 of 3 is about Hillary. Tomorrow is McCain and Friday is Obama.; May 21, 2008 5:50 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Peter-
Thanks for the news! I am glad that he is heading to PR. I heard last week that Michelle was going to be sent to PR. But it will be better for Obama to be there ;)

jpsedona -
Yeah, I knew that but you didn't have to tell everyone ;) LOL!; May 21, 2008 5:53 PM
jpsedona said...: Peter,

If Obama is going to Puerto Rico maybe he'll show up on one of the beaches. Maybe he should challenge Hillary to a winner-take-all swimsuit competition...; May 21, 2008 5:54 PM
Aunt Jean said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; May 21, 2008 5:59 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah some of that can't be proved so it's someone word against hers so what. Now lets see what obama has lied about I'm sure that the list will be bigger.I know of several lies that he has told does wright sound right LOL Jean; May 21, 2008 6:02 PM
Aunt Jean said...: yeah obama has to go to PR to do some damage control. LOL Jean; May 21, 2008 6:04 PM
Yamaka said...: jp:

Since you are NOT a Obama supporter and Right Leaning Moderate, you know what happened in 1976 Ford Vs Reagan and 1980 Carter and Ted Kennedy primary.

I want Hillary to walk away from the Convention dissatisfied and pave the way for the dreadful Fall of BHO and the FAR LEFT Democratic Party.

Let your man McCain win 2008.

Then fire up the base and come back roaring to recapture the WH like Reagan did.

That's the Grand Strategy I propose to her.

You call it bluff I call it common sense!

SDs, Nominate the Majority Candidate, if you want the WH.

:-); May 21, 2008 6:06 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: If McCain becomes president then the blood of 1,000's of more American soldiers will be on his hands and on the hands of the people that voted for him.

Say no to war!
Say no to Bush policies!
Say no to a Bush third term!
Say no to John McCain!

Vote OBAMA '08; May 21, 2008 6:11 PM
ed iglehart said...: Jim Webb was on Morning Joe. Aside from his pro-nuke-power views, he seems just right, and Right ON1 about the Appalachian demographic.

Here's the Vid

Another lovely day turns to night. moon rise and starlight.

Enjoy
ed; May 21, 2008 6:12 PM
RobH said...: Been away for a few hours, watching my Man. U. take out Chelsea FC in the European Champions League. Go, you Red Devils. A rare double, EPL Champions and European Champions.
Hear Hear!

To those who have posted regarding possible solutions at 5/31 and how FL and MI will be seated. I'd heard about the 1/2 pledged but full strength for supers. How ironic, since that's exactly backwards. I'd far prefer they count pledges at full strength and eliminate the Supers. Even though the math would be harder for Obama, it would be proper: don't screw the voters, they did their jobs. Penalize the party hacks, they're the ones who f***ed up. But Nooooooooo.

Chuck Todd laid that one out to, and it moves teh magic number to 2131 (instead of 2118.)

Ultimately, I think we'll see this:

On May 31, HIllary will be exposed as saying to the RBC "I won't negotiate any deal except the one that will allow me to win." And when that bald-facedness can not be hidden behind any other arguement, the supers will eliminate her by flocking to him, regardless of what happens in the RBC. In fact, it will be MORE pronounced if she 'wins' in the RBC.; May 21, 2008 6:13 PM
RobH said...: Yam said:

"I want Hillary to walk away from the Convention dissatisfied and pave the way for the dreadful Fall of BHO and the FAR LEFT Democratic Party."

Need any of us question who Yam is anymore, what is motivations really are, and what he is worth here? Can we please disengage?; May 21, 2008 6:15 PM
mbstuartiii said...: I am surprised that the superdelegate floodgates did not open for Obama. It was a perfect opportunity for superdelegates supporting Obama to render Saturday's RBC meeting moot. Do you think the remaining undecided superdelegates are lending to HRC?; May 21, 2008 6:18 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Okay I'll admit I have not 'studied' all the options everyone has said about seating FL and Michigan BUT

I don't see why she thinks that FL and MI will help her because she only got half of the vote in Florida and Obama + Edwards got the other half. And it looks like the majority of Edwards folks would go over to Obama. So even if Florida is seated as is it will be a wash.

Michigan is not going to back down from the 69 - 59 split so she only pick up 10 extra delegates there.

That is the total of energy I am going to put towards the FL MI issue.

Obama has already started merging his camp with the DNC camp for the General Election. Obama is already going up against McCain.

He would not be doing all of that if he was not 'positive' that he has a 'lock' on the nomination.

It is over :)

H
Obama '08
P
E

.; May 21, 2008 6:19 PM
Yamaka said...: mbs:

I am a very strong Hillary supporter.

I point out that there are 9 Ed's D still left.

There are 241 SDs undeclared.

I believe the best days of BHO are over. Now, it is Hillary's turn.

She will get the bulk of the 86 + 241 to get 2211 to clinch the Nomination.

Because, She will lead in Popular Votes. The Party must and will nominate the Majority Candidate if it wants to win the GE.

:-); May 21, 2008 6:25 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Leah how much blood will obama have on his hands if he served 4 years? answer: a lot Jean; May 21, 2008 6:26 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

We have tie BHO to Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry every minute of every day till Aug 24th.

The SDs will get the message, and will sure Nominate the Majority Candidate, not the least vetted, least experienced Light weight BHO!

We will never allow the Party to Nominate the Minority Candidate.

The Party belongs to the Centrists and the Left Leaning Moderates, NOT the FAR LEFT bleeding Liberals of BHO, Mondale, Kennedy, Kerry the perennial losers of GE.

Cheer, Smile and Vote for Hillary, the Centrist Moderate.

:-); May 21, 2008 6:30 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

There's not a sane Dem leader that will want to see three summer months go by without a definitive candidate. That WOULD spell defeat for whoever comes out the convention as the nominee.

It also means that down-ticket candidates might also loose. So, I think the party leaders will unite behind Obama whether they feel he can win or not... because they want to pickup signififcant seats in the house & senate.

Obama can fill the DNC coffers and that will in part help the congressional elections.; May 21, 2008 6:32 PM
Independent Voter said...: Aunt Jean,

I'm going to ask you a serious and legitimate question and hopefully you are no longer too filled with hatred toward Obama, but my question is this, when Obama gets the nod as the nominee (from the DNC) would you support the ticket if Hillary is his running mate?

I personally hate to even believe for one minute that he would do so, but that isn't my decision, it is his. So would you?; May 21, 2008 6:39 PM
Yamaka said...: jp:

Who is the real leader in the Democratic Party?

The twice won very successful William J. Clinton or who?

The Candidate who won the most votes so far polled or who?

You mean all the perennial losers of the Elections?!! Lol

By winning most of people's votes both Clintons ARE the leaders!

Let others listen to THEM, for they ARE the Party, IMO.

Of course, BHO has all the money in the world.

Not votes, not message!; May 21, 2008 6:43 PM
Aunt Jean said...: obama doesn't want to compromise he wanted it split 50 - 50 I don't think so. Jean; May 21, 2008 6:43 PM
Aunt Jean said...: kujo you are a rabid dog and not worth listening to. Jean; May 21, 2008 6:44 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: This little short video is GREAT!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/21/parrot-yells-obama-slogan_n_102949.html

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 21, 2008 6:46 PM
Aunt Jean said...: Dave Honestly I don't know but I would hope that I would. Sorry that is the best I can do.But she would be there to help and maybe they can work well together. That way they can keep an eye on each other so I guess they would both be putting their best foot forward [so to speak] because they would be trying to out do each other so yes it could be possible. Jean; May 21, 2008 6:48 PM
Martin said...: People, please... just stop trying to reason with Yamaka and Aunt Jean. These two are clearly fanatical Hillary supporters who will never see the light, will never admit they're wrong, and will never support Obama because they only have hate in their hearts. They twist truth in whatever despicable ways they can think, they consistently fall back on racist rhetoric and thinly-veiled bigotry, they ignore all basic standards of logic, they use inflammatory language and empty catchphrases. They're hopeless trolls and liars. Let them rant and rave and spew their meaningless nonsense till the cows come home. Their arguments will convince no one, they will only reinforce each other's close-minded beliefs. No one is taking them seriously, I assure you.; May 21, 2008 6:50 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

Unfortunately for Hillary, Bill is far removed from being the leader of the Dem party.

If Maestro had been planning for Hillary then maybe he should have gone on to become the Chairman of the Dem party... of course Al Gore might have been a bit peeved... but I'm sure that he would have been better than Dean. I'm sure if he was the DNC Chair, FL & MI wouldn't be in this position.; May 21, 2008 6:55 PM
tmess2 said...: For all this talk from you know who about how moderate-centrists do so much better than far left liberals in the Presidential race, I thought a little truth might help cut through the fog.

In 1992, Bill Clinton got just under 45 million votes representing 43% of the vote.

In 1996, Bill Clinton got just over 47.4 million for 49.24% of the vote.

In 2000, Al Gore got just under 51 million for 48.4% of the vote.

In 2004,John Kerry got just over 59 million for 48.3% of the vote.

These numbers match up what those of us who worked in the field on state and local campaign know from 2004. We didn't lose because John Kerry wasn't competitive or because John Kerry was a far-out liberal. We lost because we got beat in the turnout game. In the race that I was working, we met every target that we had for winning the race, but we got swamped by the highest Republican turnout that we have ever seen.

Unlike 2004, this year, the Republican base has no energy and they are preparing to blame each other for what went wrong.

Senator Obama is 10 times the candidate that Senator Kerry was (no offense intended), and this time, we are going to be the party with the resources and the energy.

If the difference between a moderate and a liberal nominee (and the evidence does not support the description of Senator Obama as being significantly more liberal than Senator Clinton) is only 1% of the vote (the gap between Senator Kerry and President Clinton in terms of percent of the vote), there is no justification for the unpledged delegates to veto the choice of the pledged delegates.; May 21, 2008 6:56 PM
Yamaka said...: Folks:

On ABC Prime Time News Dukakis appeared to give some life to BHO.

The message was how to lose the GE!

lol.

SDs, say NO to BHO, the Minority Candidate.

Nominate Hillary who got most of the votes polled so far in the Primary - the Majority Candidate.

Save the Party from disaster in the Fall.

:-); May 21, 2008 6:59 PM
Leah Texas4Obama said...: Total number of delegates needed to win as of now:

OBAMA 61
Clinton 245

H
Obama '08
P
E; May 21, 2008 7:00 PM
Pablo said...: Yam,

I'll try and respond quickly. "On taxation and on crime & punishment and welfare reform BHO is FAR Left of HRC."
On crime and punishment, my understanding is both are for death penalty for only the most heinous of murders, but both feel the capital punishment system should be overhauled. Obama did support Illinois. Repub. Gov. Ryan's moratorium on executions, because of the states abysmal record of innocents on death row. I'm not sure I'd qualify that as liberal. Obama also favored penalties other than incarceration for certain non-violent offenders. Perhaps that is the huge difference. Seems reasonable to me with prison overcrowding and such. Here's a link to his draft and passing legislation video taping of police interrogations and confessions in all capital cases. http://wizbangblue.com/2008/01/04/some-of-obamas-legislative-record-in-illinois.php. Perhaps that is the big left leaning difference you describe. I could not find much on Clinton's stance on crime and punishment other than a 1994 quote "We need more police, we need more and tougher prison sentences for repeat offenders" Your argument there appears very thin.

We've discussed the taxes before. They appear the same (repealing Bush tax breaks, etc.) except for Social Security. Obama said he would raise it to effect the top 6%of Americans. Clinton said she would fix S.S. but never to my knowlege has she proposed how. Perhaps you can educate me this time. Otherwise, it's hard to argue she's more or less liberal when there's no actual plan.

Lastly, up until South Carolina the black vote was decidedly still with Hillary. The shift was not only due to the Maestro's gaffe on Jessie and the "fairy tale" comment, but alot of outrage was from Hillary's own statement that "President Lyndon Johnson passed the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It took a president to get it done.” Some took it as dismissive of MLK and other leaders of the time. She tried to re-clarify later, but the damage was done. I hope she smiled as she waved those votes goodbye, to being the next POTUS.; May 21, 2008 7:00 PM
Yamaka said...: tms:

Do you know the EV of Clinton?

I think 370-376 when you need just 271!

He IS the most popular Leader of the Democratic Party, whether you like it or not.; May 21, 2008 7:01 PM
jpsedona said...: Yam,

Why do you keep bringing up Bill? I know you'd love it if he could serve a third term.

A little news. Bill isn't running. We all know Bill... and Hill is no Bill. She lacks the political skills of his younger years (now that he's obviously rusted). And although she has followed Bill's lead when it comes to telling the truth, she lacks Bills experience in governance. She was no co-president; otherwise she would talk about how she got healthcare passed, NAFTA passed and balanced the budget. In fact she was a failure as a first lady. And a non-leader in the Senate.

So, if you want to measure folks up to Bill, Hillary doesn't even cast a shadow.; May 21, 2008 7:12 PM
JayW said...: I guess I kind of have a new respect for Aunt Jean.

She says she wouldnt vote for Obama, no matter what.

Well... as much as I think that is silly I kind of understand how she feels.

I feel the same way about HRC. Now we all know that she wouldnt get the nomination. But even if she is picked as a VP running mate, I wouldnt vote for Obama because of it. Keep in mind, I am a huge Obama supporter and have donated the maximum to his campaign... but there is no way that I would ever cast a vote that might allow her to someday run the country.

I used to like her... but the way she has carried on, wanting to change rules and bend facts tells me that she is in this race for the wrong reasons. She feels entitled to it. She is doing it out of ego. She has no one's best interest at heart except her own.

So... Aunt Jean... I do understand why you feel the way you feel... I am just opposite.

But, the difference is... the polls have already factored in people like you and honestly you dont matter. Head to head, Obama beats McCain... those polled must have known that Hillary wasnt running so the people like you were factored in.

Obama (minus Hillary) in 08

PS... I have HUGE faith in Obama and think that there is no chance that he would pick her as a running mate. There is NO upside at all. None. She showed her true colors to her detriment.; May 21, 2008 7:15 PM
Pablo said...: Yam,

That's not informing anyone on any differences but instead spinning yourself.

Just labeling doesn't make it so.; May 21, 2008 7:15 PM
Aunt Jean said...: martin how old are you didn't you say 2 lol lol Jean; May 21, 2008 7:36 PM

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