Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Future of Ted Stevens

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

In the immediate future, Ted’s on the ballot, the election is a week away, and he’s claiming he’s really innocent.

It is highly unlikely that Ted-the-Felon will spend any time in prison. There were enough potential prosecutorial errors that he’ll likely get an appeal, and they’ll ask for a long court date. If the conviction stands at that point, Ted would probably be 86, and I don’t know of a case where someone gets incarcerated for white collar crime at that age. Sometimes you may see a case of an elderly person getting arrested and “taken to jail”, but those are normally local jail cases, not prison cases, and the term is a matter of hours or days. And of course, a crime-against-a-person, like murder, would be different. But hey, this is a transformational year, so the possibility of jail time is probably 5%.

Another option is a Bush pardon. Maybe house arrest. But the immediate question is whether or not he gets re-elected, and, if so, does he get to hold his Senate seat.

There was a real dearth of chatter last night. Remember when this all started, Ted asked his colleagues to ride it out with him, he was innocent. According to Politico, the Senate ethics committee won’t do anything until the case plays out. Now, THAT Senate won’t be the same Senate that would make the decision in January, but it’s still a clubby place. Harry Reid has left any current decision to the Republicans, and Mitch McConnell is wont to take any action at all. Daniel Inouye still believes Ted is innocent. It would take a 2/3 vote to oust him.

About the only statement was from Spunky who did NOT say whether she’d be voting for him.

In the DCW survey, 50% of you felt that Stevens would be found guilty, and that Begich would win the seat. So what do you think now? (Sorry about that last choice, but it is an option…)

Comments (6)

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I just got this Breaking News e-mail from the ADN:

McCain calls on Stevens to step down
WASHINGTON -- Wasting no time to separate his presidential campaign from what he described as the "corruption and insider dealing that has become so pervasive in our nation's capital," Sen. John McCain called on fellow Republican Sen. Ted Stevens to step down from the U.S. Senate.
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And the next Breaking News while I was at lunch:

Palin says Stevens should resign
The McCain-Palin campaign just issued a statement from the governor calling for Sen. Ted Stevens to step aside, even if he is re-elected, and "allow a special election to give Alaskans a real choice of who will serve them in Congress."

Further quote from Governor Palin: "After being found guilty on seven felony counts, I had hoped Senator Stevens would take the opportunity to do the statesman-like thing and erase the cloud that is covering his Senate seat. He has not done so. Alaskans are grateful for his decades of public service but the time has come for him to step aside. Even if elected on Tuesday, Senator Stevens should step aside to allow a special election to give Alaskans a real choice of who will serve them in Congress."

Now this is a tough call for the campaign. What they really want is that Stevens be re-elected and then resign, so that there can be a special and that "real choice" Governor Palin talks about. So Alaskans have to be convinced that a vote for Stevens is a vote for this "real choice".

This wouldn't be like John Ashcroft losing to a dead man in 2000, because, well, nothing would be more embarrassing than losing to a dead man. It's more like Delaware voting for Joe Biden in 2008 and hoping he'll resign. Still not the same, though. It's just a right mess.
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Another sign of the problem with the McCain team. This case has been pending for several weeks. A good communications team has two statements ready for the candidates -- one if he is acqutted, one if he is convicted. This statement should have been released yesterday keeping the damage to one press cycle instead of continuing it into a second day.
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
That would have honestly been hard on Governor Palin, because she has to still be the Governor of Alaska. It's not something she could have prepared reaction for credibly. I agree with you for McCain.
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Caught the end of something they said on TV this morning... they were saying something about if Stevens is found guilty again after his appeal and then steps down then Palin can appoint HERSELF as Senator in his place. Anyone else hear that this morning .. and what exactly was it that they said ???
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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago
Whether or not she can do that (appoint a temporary Senator, be it herself or someone else) is a matter of some dispute, whether the 17th Amendment allows a popular initiative to place restrictions on a power specifically granted (in said amendment) to a state legislature.

What is NOT in doubt is that, should Senator Stevens win re-election and then leave the Senate (by choice or otherwise), the Governor would have to call a special election not more than 90 days later to fill the seat. So even if it is determined that Palin could appoint a temporary, there would be an election very soon after.

Also not in doubt is that if she were to take the seat (even for five minutes), she would have to resign her governorship.
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