Friday, October 31, 2008

Late Night Polling Update

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

PPP is releasing polls overnight as I write this. But don't bother going to, RCP or TPM Election Central to find them, though - those sites have gone to sleep.

DCW's elite team of scientists in each time zone can serve your round-the-clock political needs - and we've got the numbers here:

Michigan: Obama 55, McCain 42

New Mexico: Obama 58, McCain 41

New Mexico is a candidate to be the state with the largest turnaround in its voting pattern relative to 2004. Barack Obama is blowing out John McCain in this place that went red just four years ago.

Obama is doing very well with two key groups of the state's voters. Among independents he has a 66-28 lead, and with Hispanics he's up 62-37.

This may begin to sound like a broken record, but he's also banked a huge lead with those who have already filled out their ballots. 56% of poll respondents reported having done that, and within that group Obama is leading 64-36. He is up by a much more modest 50-47 tally with those who have yet to vote.

Oregon: Obama 57, McCain 42
Look at it this way: we polled 1,424 people in Oregon. 839 of them had already voted, and 539 of those people voted for Obama. That basically means that out of the 585 people in our sample who had yet to fill out their ballot Obama would need 174, or a little under 30% to get to 50% +1. It's safe to say he'll win Oregon in a blowout.
West Virginia: McCain 55, Obama 42
Minnesota: Obama 57, McCain 41
Colorado: Obama 54, McCain 44
65% of the folks we surveyed said they had already voted, and among those respondents Obama is winning 58-41. Folks planning to vote on election day support John McCain 50-47, bringing Obama's overall lead down to ten points.
If this was an exit poll, the networks would have called the state by now. And remember, if Obama wins Colorado, this thing is over. OK, fine, if he wins Colorado and Pennsylvania, this thing is over.

Senate races:

Oregon: Merkley 51, Smith 43, Brownlow 4
Minnesota: Franken 45, Coleman 40, Barkley 14
Colorado: M. Udall 56, Schaffer 41
New Mexico: T. Udall 58, Pearce 39