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Senate Forecast: 58.3 (+7.3), another big jump of 0.5 from the previous forecast. The first 4: VA, NM, CO, NH are over, and AK and OR are not far behind. (With Alaska, we're just waiting for the first post-conviction poll). A small wave will bring in NC and MN, and that gets us to 59. Getting over 59 becomes harder.
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.
The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup).
Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), NJ (Lautenberg), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller).
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi).
|DemConWatch Senate Forecast|
|Dem '08 Projection||20.4||20.0||19.7||19.3||19.0||18.8||18.8||18.4|
|Dem '10/'12 Seats||39||39||39||39||39||39||39||39|
|Dem Senate Projection||59.4||59.0||58.7||58.3||58.0||57.8||57.8||57.4|
Here are the seats that span 3 categories: AK, NH.
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.