Presidential Forecast - 10/27 - 8 more days

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Things continue to look good for Obama, as he improved his position once again, leading 338-200, up 4 EV from the last projection. Colorado and Virginia remain our two tipping point states. A couple of major changes on the map: Ohio moves to Obama-Lean for the first time, and Arizona turns a lovely light pink.

The state-by-state map consensus is Obama 306 (+20) (Strong-255, Lean-51(+20)), McCain 163 (Strong-127 (-10), Lean-36 (-10)), Tossup: 69 (-20).

Map changes: Towards Obama: OH: T->OL; AZ: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: AZ, CO, GA, IN, MT, ND, OH, VA.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	538 .com	Open Left	EV. com	Elect. Proj.	RCP	RM	FHQ	NBC	CNN	EVs
Date		10/27.	10/27.	10/27.	10/27.	10/27.	10/27.	10/27.	10/27.	10/15.
Obama-Strong (O)		306	282	260	238	255	260	238	175	192
Obama-Lean (OL)		47	40	46	68	51	53	35	111	85
Tossup (T)		22	59	100	100	75	51	102	89	87
McCain-Lean (ML)		0	25	8	20	30	11	11	39	52
McCain-Strong (M)		163	132	124	112	127	163	152	124	122
Obama Total		353	322	306	306	306	313	273	286	277
McCain Total		163	157	132	132	157	174	163	163	174
Obama Est.		351	349	348	347	339	330	323	332	324
California	55	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	55
Conn.	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	62
DC	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	65
Delaware	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	68
Hawaii	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	72
Illinois	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	93
Maryland	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	103
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	115
New York	31	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	146
Oregon	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	153
Rhode Island	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	157
Vermont	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	160
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	164
New Jersey	15	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	179
Washington	11	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	190
Iowa	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	OL	197
Minnesota	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	OL	207
Pennsylvania	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	OL	228
Wisconsin	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	OL	238
Michigan	17	O	O	O	OL	O	O	OL	OL	O	255
New Mexico	5	O	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	260
NH	4	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	264
Colorado	9	O	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	273
Virginia	13	O	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	OL	OL	286
Ohio	20	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	306
Florida	27	OL	T	T	T	T	OL	T	T	T	333
Nevada	5	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	338
N. Carolina	15	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	353
Missouri	11	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	364
Indiana	11	T	OL	T	T	T	ML	T	T	ML	375
Montana	3	M	T	T	T	T	M	ML	ML	ML	378
N. Dakota	3	M	T	T	T	T	M	ML	ML	ML	381
Georgia	15	M	ML	T	T	ML	M	M	ML	ML	396
Arizona	10	M	ML	T	T	ML	M	M	ML	M	406
W. Virginia	5	M	M	ML	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML
S. Dakota	3	M	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	ML	M
Arkansas	6	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	ML
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML
Mississippi	6	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M
Alabama	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Alaska	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Idaho	4	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Oklahoma	7	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Carolina	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Texas	34	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Utah	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Wyoming	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
		538 .com	Open Left	EV. com	Elect. Proj.	RCP	RM	FHQ	NBC	CNN	....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, MI, MN, NJ, PA, WA, WI (Obama), AR, LA,MS, SD (McCain). This change has added 3 EVs to Obama's total.