Monday, October 27, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 10/27 - 8 more days

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Things continue to look good for Obama, as he improved his position once again, leading 338-200, up 4 EV from the last projection. Colorado and Virginia remain our two tipping point states. A couple of major changes on the map: Ohio moves to Obama-Lean for the first time, and Arizona turns a lovely light pink.

The state-by-state map consensus is Obama 306 (+20) (Strong-255, Lean-51(+20)), McCain 163 (Strong-127 (-10), Lean-36 (-10)), Tossup: 69 (-20).

Map changes: Towards Obama: OH: T->OL; AZ: M->ML.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: AZ, CO, GA, IN, MT, ND, OH, VA.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
Elect. Proj.RCPRMFHQNBCCNNEVs
Date

10/27.10/27.10/27.10/27.10/27.10/27.10/27.10/27.10/15.
Obama-Strong (O)

306282260238255260238175192
Obama-Lean (OL)

4740466851533511185
Tossup (T)

225910010075511028987
McCain-Lean (ML)

0258203011113952
McCain-Strong (M)

163132124112127163152124122
Obama Total

353322306306306313273286277
McCain Total

163157132132157174163163174
Obama Est.

351349348347339330323332324

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Oregon
7OOOOOOOOO153
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO157
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO160
Maine
4OOOOOOOOOL164
New Jersey
15OOOOOOOOLO179
Washington
11OOOOOOOOOL190
Iowa
7OOOOOOOOLOL197
Minnesota
10OOOOOOOOLOL207
Pennsylvania
21OOOOOOOOLOL228
Wisconsin
10OOOOOOOOLOL238
Michigan
17OOOOLOOOLOLO255
New Mexico
5OOOOLOLOOLOLOL260
NH
4OOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL264
Colorado
9OOOLOLOLOLOLOLT273
Virginia
13OOOLOLOLOLTOLOL286
Ohio
20OOLOLOLOLTTTT306
Florida
27OLTTTTOLTTT333
Nevada
5OLOLTTTTTTT338
N. Carolina
15OLTTTTTTTT353
Missouri
11TTTTTTTTT364
Indiana
11TOLTTTMLTTML375
Montana
3MTTTTMMLMLML378
N. Dakota
3MTTTTMMLMLML381
Georgia
15MMLTTMLMMMLML396
Arizona
10MMLTTMLMMMLM406
W. Virginia
5MMMLMLMLMMLMLML
S. Dakota
3MMMLMLMMMMLM
Arkansas
6MMMMLMMMMML
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMMML
Mississippi
6MMMMLMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Alaska
3MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
Elect. Proj.RCPRMFHQNBCCNN....









































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, MI, MN, NJ, PA, WA, WI (Obama), AR, LA,MS, SD (McCain). This change has added 3 EVs to Obama's total.