Presidential Forecast - 10/30 - 5 days to go

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Obama leads 341-197, up 3 EV from the last projection. Nevada becomes the 4th state, with Colorado, Virginia and Ohio, that is now Obama-Lean, that McCain must win to reach 270.

The state-by-state map consensus is Obama 311 (+5) (Strong-255, Lean-56(+5)), McCain 163 (Strong-127, Lean-36), Tossup: 64 (-5).

Map changes: Towards Obama: NV: T->OL.

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Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: AZ, GA, IN, MT, NV, ND, OH

DCW Presidential Forecast
State	EVs	Open Left	EV. com	538 .com	Elect. Proj.	RCP	RM	CNN	FHQ	NBC	EVs
Date		10/30.	10/30.	10/30.	10/27.	10/30.	10/30.	10/30.	10/30.	10/27.
Obama-Strong (O)		291	254	311	238	238	260	203	238	175
Obama-Lean (OL)		62	57	42	68	73	53	88	48	111
Tossup (T)		25	85	22	100	85	65	84	89	89
McCain-Lean (ML)		28	24	0	20	15	0	41	11	39
McCain-Strong (M)		132	118	163	112	127	160	122	152	124
Obama Total		353	311	353	306	311	313	291	286	286
McCain Total		160	142	163	132	142	160	163	163	163
Obama Est.		359	347	347	348	346	336	332	327	332
California	55	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	55
Conn.	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	62
DC	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	65
Delaware	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	68
Hawaii	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	72
Illinois	21	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	93
Maryland	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	103
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	115
New York	31	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	146
Oregon	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	153
Rhode Island	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	157
Vermont	3	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	160
Washington	11	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	171
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	O	175
New Jersey	15	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	190
Iowa	7	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	197
Minnesota	10	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	207
Michigan	17	O	O	O	OL	O	O	O	OL	OL	224
Pennsylvania	21	O	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	O	OL	245
Wisconsin	10	O	OL	O	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	255
NH	4	O	O	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	259
New Mexico	5	O	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	264
Colorado	9	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	273
Virginia	13	O	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	286
Nevada	5	O	OL	O	T	OL	T	OL	T	T	291
Ohio	20	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	311
Florida	27	OL	T	OL	T	T	OL	T	T	T	338
N. Carolina	15	OL	T	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T	353
Indiana	11	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	364
Missouri	11	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	375
Montana	3	ML	T	M	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	378
N. Dakota	3	T	T	M	T	T	M	ML	ML	ML	381
Georgia	15	ML	T	M	T	T	M	ML	M	ML	396
Arizona	10	ML	ML	M	T	ML	M	M	M	ML	406
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	M	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML
S. Dakota	3	M	ML	M	ML	M	M	M	M	ML
Arkansas	6	M	M	M	ML	M	M	ML	M	M
Mississippi	6	M	ML	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M
Louisiana	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M
Alabama	9	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Alaska	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Idaho	4	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kansas	6	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Oklahoma	7	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
S. Carolina	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Texas	34	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Utah	5	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
Wyoming	3	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
		Open Left	EV. com	538 .com	Elect. Proj.	RCP	RM	CNN	FHQ	NBC	....

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this forecast, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, MI, MN, NJ, PA, WI (Obama), AR, LA, MS, SD (McCain). This change has added 4 EVs to Obama's total.