Thursday, October 30, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 10/30 - 5 days to go

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Obama leads 341-197, up 3 EV from the last projection. Nevada becomes the 4th state, with Colorado, Virginia and Ohio, that is now Obama-Lean, that McCain must win to reach 270.

The state-by-state map consensus is Obama 311 (+5) (Strong-255, Lean-56(+5)), McCain 163 (Strong-127, Lean-36), Tossup: 64 (-5).

Map changes: Towards Obama: NV: T->OL.

Be sure to join us on election night for great coverage of what looks to be an historic night!

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: AZ, GA, IN, MT, NV, ND, OH

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVsOpen LeftEV.
com
538
.com
Elect. Proj.RCPRMCNNFHQNBCEVs
Date

10/30.10/30.10/30.10/27.10/30.10/30.10/30.10/30.10/27.
Obama-Strong (O)

291254311238238260203238175
Obama-Lean (OL)

6257426873538848111
Tossup (T)

2585221008565848989
McCain-Lean (ML)

2824020150411139
McCain-Strong (M)

132118163112127160122152124
Obama Total

353311353306311313291286286
McCain Total

160142163132142160163163163
Obama Est.

359347347348346336332327332

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Oregon
7OOOOOOOOO153
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO157
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO160
Washington
11OOOOOOOOO171
Maine
4OOOOOOOLOO175
New Jersey
15OOOOOOOOOL190
Iowa
7OOOOOOOLOOL197
Minnesota
10OOOOOOOLOOL207
Michigan
17OOOOLOOOOLOL224
Pennsylvania
21OOOOOLOOLOOL245
Wisconsin
10OOLOOOOOLOOL255
NH
4OOOOLOOLOLOLOL259
New Mexico
5OOOOLOLOOLOLOL264
Colorado
9OOLOOLOLOLOLOLOL273
Virginia
13OOLOOLOLOLOLOLOL286
Nevada
5OOLOTOLTOLTT291
Ohio
20OLOLOOLOLTTTT311
Florida
27OLTOLTTOLTTT338
N. Carolina
15OLTOLTTTTTT353
Indiana
11TTTTTTTTT364
Missouri
11TTTTTTTTT375
Montana
3MLTMTTTMLMLML378
N. Dakota
3TTMTTMMLMLML381
Georgia
15MLTMTTMMLMML396
Arizona
10MLMLMTMLMMMML406
W. Virginia
5MMLMMLMLMMLMLML
S. Dakota
3MMLMMLMMMMML
Arkansas
6MMMMLMMMLMM
Mississippi
6MMLMMLMMMMM
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMLMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Alaska
3MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


Open LeftEV.
com
538
.com
Elect. Proj.RCPRMCNNFHQNBC....

































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this forecast, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, MI, MN, NJ, PA, WI (Obama), AR, LA, MS, SD (McCain). This change has added 4 EVs to Obama's total.