Monday, October 27, 2008

Want to Change your Guess?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Now that Ted Stevens has been convicted, it's time to re-run the Senate guess-a-thon.

When we last ran this poll, "58" was the number most chosen by DCW readers as the number of Democratic Senators that would be in place in January 2009, your choice on Joe.

Want to change your mind?

And when you use the comments to discuss whether or not you are still including Joe in the count, remember this: so long as Joe caucuses with the Democrats, he keeps his committee chairmanship. That allows him subpoena power, the right to hold hearings, and hold sway. Is that something that changes his value in a Democratic Senate, or is holding the number at "60", if we win 59 seats, be more important?

Also consider that IF Ted is re-elected, it will be up to the Senate to expel him. Further, remember that Baby Bush can still pardon Ted. He pardoned Scooter.... We'll have more up tonight and tomorrow on Senate reaction, including how sitting Senators feel about a felon in their midst, and whether monies donated to their campaigns by Stevens will be kept or returned.

Posted by DocJess at 5:02 PM

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Joshua's avatar

Joshua · 857 weeks ago

Baby bush doesn't sound right, make it easier and just call him the Shrub. I'll go with 60 keeping Joe in the mix so he can keep his precious chairmanship. Plus he would be the first to cozy up to the Dems if Obama wins.
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Long Island Democrat's avatar

Long Island Democrat · 857 weeks ago

I think I've voted 58 before but I'll go with 59 now; the chances of not winning OR, MN or NC (all of which I consider to be tilting slightly Democratic) are offset somewhat by the possibility of other pickups (GA, KY, or MS; I consider the other senate seats completely out of reach, though I'd be happy to be wrong on that!). I do think the chances of 58 are better than the chances of 60. I'm counting Lieberman and Sanders.
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Peter Zenger's avatar - Go to profile

Peter Zenger 62p · 857 weeks ago

I am really conflicted about this. Committee Chairpersons are going to have a lot of work in the Senate for the next two years as major legislative initiatives are going to actually be signed into law by a President Obama. It is vitally important that those chairs are filled with individuals that are "team players." Lieberman has not been a team player, but it may be seen as petty to give him the boot. Since on most issues, his values are aligned with the Democrats we could count on him for cloture votes.

Regarding fillibusters, I think the more vocal members of the left-leaning blogosphere needs to realize that the next two years will involve some accomodation. More conservative Democrats like Ben Nelson (Nebraska) will not sign off on an extreme legislative agenda. Likewise, for progressive/moderate legislation we can probably count on some progressive leaning Republicans to end a fillibuster.
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 857 weeks ago

Petty? Joementum is supporting the candidate of the other party. It's long overdue to reset him to zero in terms of his committee assignments, just as any other new Senator for a new party (Conn for Joe) would be.
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Peter Zenger's avatar - Go to profile

Peter Zenger 62p · 857 weeks ago

The Washington Post had a good quote from Hoyer about the danger of overreaching. Dumping Joe may feel good in the short term, but could be a bad move in the long term.

"The larger the majority, the more likelihood that people think they can go off on their own. But being in the minority for 12 years was probably pretty good for us. We are a party much more aware of the necessity of unity," House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer (Md.) said.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/arti...
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Peter Zenger's avatar - Go to profile

Peter Zenger 62p · 857 weeks ago

Wow. Red State is endorsing Begich and Berkowitz.

http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/oct...
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Tom's avatar - Go to profile

Tom 53p · 857 weeks ago

I think it is very possible to see new kind of party formation. IMHO when elected president Obama will form a government with experts and will work moderate agenda. As I wrote before, his agenda is not leftist at all. It is moderate-liberal. So I think what wee see now - some GOP candidates associating with Obama's name in order to be re-elected, will be trasfered to both House and Senate. I believe several, actualy a dozen or more Representatives and Senators will run as independents in 2010, with the support of GOP, but not as die-hard republicans. So, not amazingly, on most issues 60 won't be the magic number because support will come from both sides. On Lieberman - kick him out!
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tmess2 70p · 857 weeks ago

Right now I will hold at 58 including Senator Lieberman. I see 5 solid gains (Alaska, New Mexico, Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia). We should gain at least one from Oregon and Minnesota. Likewise, we should gain at least one from North Carolina, Kentucky, and Mississippi. Unfortunately, I see Georgia going to a run-off and I am not sure if we can get the votes out for the special.

If I were a member of the Senate, I would let Senator Lieberman keep his committee assignments but name someone else as chair.
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Karen Anne's avatar

Karen Anne · 857 weeks ago

What does it mean to caucus with the Democrats? That isn't guaranteeing he votes as the Dem leaders want, does it? So it looks pretty worthless to me. Throw the bum out.

I thought he had already been booted out of something after he announced for McCain, but I don't remember what that was?
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 857 weeks ago

Karen, no senator has to swear alligence to the party on every vote. i dispise lieberman for his stance on the war and for his traveling around the country holding water for mccain and palin, but the fact is, he votes with the party more often than some of the blue dogs. he is a liberal on most things and by caucusing with the dems, he assures us all the leaderships of all the committees. sure we will not need him in the next congress, and sure we are all pissed, but if, upon his recetn election, he had caucused with the GOP, or even actually moved to the GOP, we would have lost control of the senate.
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