Thursday, October 30, 2008


WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

We're less than a week out, and we've got dueling messages. There are those Obama supporters who are saying "Obama landslide." There are those McCain supporters who are saying, "Not so fast...". A lot of people are saying that it will be much more close than anyone suspects.

A lot of you have already entered our contest to nail the EVs and the battleground state numbers. If not, click here.

For today's poll, we're going to look at the "when" of it all. Oreo kindly posted the poll closing times here. And you can match them up to the state-by-state EVs here.

Before you begin your calculations, bear the following in mind: YEAR 2000. Everyone called Florida for Gore before they called Florida for Baby Bush. Because of this, there is a National Election Pool. Data is collected and goes into a hermetically sealed room. Just kidding. But theoretically, and because of past problems, the exit data won't be released until really late in the day. Remember, this is a pool report, and all the major networks and news agencies will be getting their information from the pool. Since a lot of you are junkies, if you want to see the old exit polls, they're here. (And for any of you who may be new to DCW, I respectfully use the word "junkie" as a compliment.)


So, the first polls close at 6. No one can win at 6 because the only two states for which results can be released are Kentucky and Indiana, and those numbers don't get anyone to 270. Plus, will one of them be called at 6? "Too close to call"? "Too early to call"?

You may be able to extrapolate a time based on trends you see from the 7 p.m. closures, but maybe not.

The poll below has some general times on it. As always, I am limited to ten responses. So, pick the time you think is closest in the poll, and then use the comments to pick an EXACT time, called by your stated legitimate news source (e.g. CNN, MSNBC), that the winner will be called. Remembering 2000, called wrong doesn't count.

No prizes, just junkie fun!

And then, remember to stay with DemConWatch after the election for the best Transition and Inauguration coverage.