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We're less than a week out, and we've got dueling messages. There are those Obama supporters who are saying "Obama landslide." There are those McCain supporters who are saying, "Not so fast...". A lot of people are saying that it will be much more close than anyone suspects.
A lot of you have already entered our contest to nail the EVs and the battleground state numbers. If not, click here.
For today's poll, we're going to look at the "when" of it all. Oreo kindly posted the poll closing times here. And you can match them up to the state-by-state EVs here.
Before you begin your calculations, bear the following in mind: YEAR 2000. Everyone called Florida for Gore before they called Florida for Baby Bush. Because of this, there is a National Election Pool. Data is collected and goes into a hermetically sealed room. Just kidding. But theoretically, and because of past problems, the exit data won't be released until really late in the day. Remember, this is a pool report, and all the major networks and news agencies will be getting their information from the pool. Since a lot of you are junkies, if you want to see the old exit polls, they're here. (And for any of you who may be new to DCW, I respectfully use the word "junkie" as a compliment.)
REMEMBER: ALL TIMES EASTERN
So, the first polls close at 6. No one can win at 6 because the only two states for which results can be released are Kentucky and Indiana, and those numbers don't get anyone to 270. Plus, will one of them be called at 6? "Too close to call"? "Too early to call"?
You may be able to extrapolate a time based on trends you see from the 7 p.m. closures, but maybe not.
The poll below has some general times on it. As always, I am limited to ten responses. So, pick the time you think is closest in the poll, and then use the comments to pick an EXACT time, called by your stated legitimate news source (e.g. CNN, MSNBC), that the winner will be called. Remembering 2000, called wrong doesn't count.
No prizes, just junkie fun!
Logging you in...
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SLCScott 74p · 857 weeks ago
Suppose we get an Obama landslide, which seems to be what about half of the respondents are expecting.
The poll in the state with the 270th electoral vote doesn't close until 8:30 pm. So even in a super-mega landslide, there's no call until then. But if McCain even wins 6 electoral votes in the states that have closed by that time (which include places like Oklahoma, Tennessee, and South Carolina) then it goes until at least 9:00 pm.
For poll closings at 9 pm, there's now enough electoral votes out there, but if Obama wins, say, Texas, it's not likely it will be called right at 9 pm.
So in a big landslide it's probably called at 10 pm.
In a smaller but still big win, it might be the closing of California at 11 pm that causes networks to call.
Of course, the networks calling it and us "knowing" are different. If, say Indiana goes for Obama, that's a very very good sign, and we'd know that early.
Plan your election-watching parties accordingly: in the Eastern time zone, even an "early" result still means a fairly late night if you want to see the concession and acceptance speeches.
Oh, and me personally? I'm closing on a house the next day. I'm not going to be getting much sleep next week...
C.S.Strowbridge · 857 weeks ago
That's why I think the election will be called between 7:00 and 7:30 pm. Perhaps earlier if Obama wins Indiana.
tmess2 70p · 857 weeks ago
DaveM · 857 weeks ago
Strowbridge - If Obama wins VA but not PA, he could still lose.
C.S.Strowbridge · 857 weeks ago
What I'm saying is, if Obama's ahead in Virginia by a significant margin (7% or 8%) then the race can be called immediately. (Especially if Obama is also ahead in Indiana.)
Matt 75p · 857 weeks ago
JohnCz · 857 weeks ago
tmess2 70p · 857 weeks ago
One of them is when does Obama get officially over 270 -- mathematically looking at all of the states that are toss-ups and calling them based on current polls -- you probably get to 270 sometime between 10 pm and 11 pm.
The other is when does the result become clear. By 9 p.m. eastern, you could have the following states called -- Virginia, Georgia, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania. If Obama gets two or more of those five, it is hard to see a way that McCain gets to 268, much less 269 or 270. If, somehow, McCain were to sweep those five, I am not sure that Obama would have a path to 270. If Obama only gets one of the five, we could be waiting much longer to find out who wins.
26376 66p · 857 weeks ago
26376 66p · 857 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 856 weeks ago
joe · 856 weeks ago
joe · 856 weeks ago
calwatch · 856 weeks ago
OregonDem · 856 weeks ago
My opinion is that with the east coast states falling for Obama (even if NC, OH and FLare too close to call) once PA, VA, NH, and the rust belts states stay in the D column and one of the other Bush states (like Iowa) are in the Obama camp someone will be certain to call Obama the President elect.
Remember we do not need to have 270 to call the election. We would only need 193 because CA, OR, WA and HI are positively absolutely no questions asked going for Obama.