Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Polling Update - October 28th - One More Week

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

"For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky or think this is all set, I just have two words for you: New Hampshire," - Barack Obama
Rasmussen Tracking Poll: Obama 51, McCain 46 (Obama 51, McCain 46).
Hotline: Obama 50, McCain 42 (Obama 50, McCain 42).
Daily Kos: Obama 50, McCain 43 (Obama 50, McCain 42).
Gallup: Obama 49, McCain 47 (Obama 50, McCain 45).

Four poll average: Obama 50, McCain 44.5 (Obama 50.25, McCain 43.75).

Here's the overall national trend from Pollster.com.



And if you're wondering... Gallup's expanded poll is at 51 - 44.

From Pew Research Center
Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

Comments (3)

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The expanded Gallup Likely voter has Obama up by seven percentage points. In any event it's getting closer.
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Shouldn't you be using Gallup's Expanded poll in your average?

So where is McCain finding this additional support? I would have that thought with Barack going to Hawaii to be with his Grandmother we would have seen polls remain fairly stable. Its not like McCain did anything to standout while Barack stepped off the campaign trail. In fact, you would think the conviction of the Senator Stevens, the false assault report in PA, the report breakup of an assassination plot and the stock markets continued struggles would reflect negatively on the McCain campaign's prospects and poll #s.
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I thought that we were using the registered voter model because that was the model that we had been using all along before they broke it into subcategories. your 49 47 point lead is done using the model of Likely voters Based off of LAST TWO YEARS ELECTIONS. This is by far the worst case scenario at any rate, just using the registered voter model gives us 50 - 43.
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