Wednesday, October 29, 2008

House Forecast - 10/29 - 6 days to go

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DCW House Forecast: 255.0 (+19) [was 252.5 (+16.5)]. One more GOP seat has been added to the chart: VA-5. And IN-9 and PA-4 have gone all D and are off the chart.

It's interesting again to look at this years chart (right), and compare it to 2006 (below).

In 2006, there was a pretty similar rise in the projections in the month of October. (I only tracked two in 2006, CQ and Cook).

But the key, of course, is where the projections ended, and where the final outcome was. And in some sense, the final outcome was actually low for the Democrats, as there were close to a dozen seats that were "to close to call" the day after the election, but the GOP won almost all of them.

Will the Democrats see a similar jump over the forecasts this year?

Be sure to join us on election night for great coverage of the House races in an easy-to-read table you won't find anywhere else. We'll break up the races by category, so it will be easy to see if a wave is picking up all the Tossups.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup, except for NY-13, which is a pickup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State
CurrentCookCrystal BallSSPRothCQ....
Date

10/2810/2310/29 10/29 10/29
Dem

1149154
Dem-Lean

122618618
Tossup

3322243528
Rep-Lean

111514317
Rep

557135
Dem-Prediction

39.338.838.237.935.8
Dem (not shown)

217217217217217
House Projection

256.3255.8255.2254.9252.8
Dem-Gain

20.319.819.218.916.8

NY 13 (Open)
RDDDDD
NY 25 (Open)
RDDLDDD
VA 11 (Open)
RDDDLDD
AZ 1 (Open)
RDDLDDDL
FL 24 (Feeney)
RDLDLDLDDL
OH 16 (Open)
RDLDLDLDDL
IL 11 (Open)
RDLDLDLDLDL
AK AL (Young)
RTDLTDDL
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTDLDLTDL
NM 1 (Open)
RDLDLDLTT
FL 8 (Keller)
RTDLTTDL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RTTDLDLT
MN 3 (Open)
RDLDLTTT
NC 8 (Hayes)
RTDLTDLT
CT 4 (Shays)
RTDLTTT
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTDLTTT
NJ 3 (Open)
RDLTTTT
NV 3 (Porter)
RTDLTTT
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RTTDLTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTDLTT
CA 4 (Open)
RTTTTT
IL 10 (Kirk)
RTTTTT
LA 4 (Open)
RTTTTT
MD 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
MN 6 (Bachmann)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 2 (Open)
RTDLTTRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RTTTTT
PA 3 (English)
RTTTTT
AL 2 (Open)
RTTRLTT
ID 1 (Sali)
RTRLTTT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTRLTTT
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RTRLTTRL
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
RRLTTTRL
KY 2 (Open)
RTTRLTRL
NY 26 (Open)
RTTRLTRL
MO 9 (Open)
RTRLRLTRL
NE 2 (Terry)
RTRLRLTRL
VA 2 (Drake)
RTRLRLTRL
WY AL (Cubin)
RRLTRLRT
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRLRLRLRLRL
AZ 3 (Shadegg)
RRLRLRLRRL
IN 3 (Souder)
RRLRLRLRRL
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRLRLRRL
NV 2 (Heller)
RRLRLRLRRL
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRLRLRLRRL
SC 1 (Brown)
RRLRRRLRL
CA 50 (Bilbray)
RRLRLRRR
VA 5 (Goode)
RRLRRLRR
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRRRRL
NJ 5 (Garrett)
RRRLRRR
TX 7 (Culberson)
RRRLRRR
PA 6 (Gerlach)
RRRRRR

FL 16 (Mahoney)
DRRRRRL
TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTTRLT
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DTTTTT
AL 5 (Open)
DTTDLTT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTDLTTT
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DTTDLTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DDLTDLTT
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLTDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 10 (Carney)
DDLDLDLDLDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDDLDLDDL
MS 1 (Childers)
DDLDLDDDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDDLDLDDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDDLDDDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDDLDDDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDDLDDD
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDDL


CookCrystal BallSSPRothCQ....














































































































The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.