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DCW House Forecast: 255.0 (+19) [was 252.5 (+16.5)]. One more GOP seat has been added to the chart: VA-5. And IN-9 and PA-4 have gone all D and are off the chart.
It's interesting again to look at this years chart (right), and compare it to 2006 (below).
In 2006, there was a pretty similar rise in the projections in the month of October. (I only tracked two in 2006, CQ and Cook).
But the key, of course, is where the projections ended, and where the final outcome was. And in some sense, the final outcome was actually low for the Democrats, as there were close to a dozen seats that were "to close to ca
ll" the day after the election, but the GOP won almost all of them.
Will the Democrats see a similar jump over the forecasts this year?
Be sure to join us on election night for great coverage of the House races in an easy-to-read table you won't find anywhere else. We'll break up the races by category, so it will be easy to see if a wave is picking up all the Tossups.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup, except for NY-13, which is a pickup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.
| DCW House Forecast | |||||||
| State | Current | Cook | Crystal Ball | SSP | Roth | CQ | .... |
| Date | 10/28 | 10/23 | 10/29 | 10/29 | 10/29 | ||
| Dem | 11 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 4 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 12 | 26 | 18 | 6 | 18 | ||
| Tossup | 33 | 22 | 24 | 35 | 28 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 11 | 15 | 14 | 3 | 17 | ||
| Rep | 5 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 5 | ||
| Dem-Prediction | 39.3 | 38.8 | 38.2 | 37.9 | 35.8 | ||
| Dem (not shown) | 217 | 217 | 217 | 217 | 217 | ||
| House Projection | 256.3 | 255.8 | 255.2 | 254.9 | 252.8 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 20.3 | 19.8 | 19.2 | 18.9 | 16.8 | ||
| NY 13 (Open) | R | D | D | D | D | D | |
| NY 25 (Open) | R | D | DL | D | D | D | |
| VA 11 (Open) | R | D | D | DL | D | D | |
| AZ 1 (Open) | R | D | DL | D | D | DL | |
| FL 24 (Feeney) | R | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| OH 16 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| IL 11 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AK AL (Young) | R | T | DL | T | D | DL | |
| CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| NM 1 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | T | T | |
| FL 8 (Keller) | R | T | DL | T | T | DL | |
| MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | T | T | DL | DL | T | |
| MN 3 (Open) | R | DL | DL | T | T | T | |
| NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | DL | T | DL | T | |
| CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| NJ 3 (Open) | R | DL | T | T | T | T | |
| NV 3 (Porter) | R | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | T | T | DL | T | T | |
| OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | DL | T | T | |
| CA 4 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| IL 10 (Kirk) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| LA 4 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MD 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MN 6 (Bachmann) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 2 (Open) | R | T | DL | T | T | RL | |
| OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| PA 3 (English) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 2 (Open) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
| ID 1 (Sali) | R | T | RL | T | T | T | |
| WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | RL | T | T | T | |
| FL 21 (Diaz-Balart) | R | T | RL | T | T | RL | |
| FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | T | T | T | RL | |
| KY 2 (Open) | R | T | T | RL | T | RL | |
| NY 26 (Open) | R | T | T | RL | T | RL | |
| MO 9 (Open) | R | T | RL | RL | T | RL | |
| NE 2 (Terry) | R | T | RL | RL | T | RL | |
| VA 2 (Drake) | R | T | RL | RL | T | RL | |
| WY AL (Cubin) | R | RL | T | RL | R | T | |
| OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| AZ 3 (Shadegg) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| IN 3 (Souder) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| NV 2 (Heller) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| WV 2 (Moore Capito) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| SC 1 (Brown) | R | RL | R | R | RL | RL | |
| CA 50 (Bilbray) | R | RL | RL | R | R | R | |
| VA 5 (Goode) | R | RL | R | RL | R | R | |
| FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
| NJ 5 (Garrett) | R | R | RL | R | R | R | |
| TX 7 (Culberson) | R | R | RL | R | R | R | |
| PA 6 (Gerlach) | R | R | R | R | R | R | |
| FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | R | R | R | R | RL | |
| TX 22 (Lampson) | D | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| PA 11 (Kanjorski) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 5 (Open) | D | T | T | DL | T | T | |
| LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | DL | T | T | T | |
| NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | T | T | DL | T | T | |
| KS 2 (Boyda) | D | DL | T | DL | T | T | |
| GA 8 (Marshall) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| CA 11 (McNerney) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| PA 10 (Carney) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | D | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| MS 1 (Childers) | D | DL | DL | D | D | DL | |
| NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | D | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | D | DL | D | D | DL | |
| KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | D | DL | D | D | DL | |
| CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| IL 14 (Foster) | D | D | DL | D | D | D | |
| TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| Cook | Crystal Ball | SSP | Roth | CQ | .... | ||
The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
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