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According to Pollster, the states currently in toss-up status are (in no particular order): Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Both the Chuck Todd map and the Karl Rove map show all those states except Arizona, South Dakota and Georgia.
And so (shamelessly stolen, but I can't give credit because I cannot remember where I saw it) if only one of those states could turn blue, which would you choose?