Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Spreading Map

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

According to Pollster, the states currently in toss-up status are (in no particular order): Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida. Both the Chuck Todd map and the Karl Rove map show all those states except Arizona, South Dakota and Georgia.

And so (shamelessly stolen, but I can't give credit because I cannot remember where I saw it) if only one of those states could turn blue, which would you choose?

Posted by DocJess at 5:30 AM

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Tom 53p · 857 weeks ago

You saw it at Kos, but I can't remember the diary :)
Anyway I would like to see very much GA turning blue. If my model is correct, the difference there is < 0.5% and it is all up to GOTV programs of the campaigns
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mindlessmissy 49p · 857 weeks ago

Flo-Rida ...

I so want it to go Dem this year ...
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uplandpoet · 857 weeks ago

as a long time resident of florida, i voted for my state, i want to live in ablue state so bad!!!!!!
but it would be sweet to see a really big crack in the deep south, say Vir, NC and GA, i guess SC is not on the table:)
and then again, it would so cool if he lost his home state!
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C.S.Strowbridge · 857 weeks ago

North Carolina, because the Republicans freaked out about the EC sharing plan the Democrats had for this year, and this would be a good twist of the knife. "You could have won, had you let the Democrats change the voting laws."
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spavis · 857 weeks ago

I picked Montana because it's large in area and I'm tired of seeing all the country swathed in red except for the tiny states. A silly reason, I know but it strikes me as the state where a win would be the most serendipitous. Also Brian Schweitzer is a good guy and having a blue state under him might help him and the Democratic party in that section of the country. It's one of those unexpected states that would have special resonance with an Obama victory. Getting either of the Dakotas or Nevada might have similar impact.

Although Arizona going blue may well force McCain to retire. And Indiana hasn't been blue in so long it'd be nice to see that midwest consolidation. And Missouri, the bell weather state, would be a nice brass ring to have. Getting North Carolina or Georgia would affirm the power of a long subjugated minority, and if Georgia is in serious contention that would be good for chances at a Senate pickup. And getting Florida fair and square would be mud in the eye to the repubs after 2000.

But of course any of these states would be gravy because none of them are going to put Obama over 270. It sure is nice to think about though. :)
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marc · 857 weeks ago

I picked AZ, although there are others with higher EV counts, I think the psychological impact of McCain's home state going blue would be tremendous.
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Leah 85p · 857 weeks ago

I picked Florida because it has the most EVs of the states listed. My second choice on the list would be Arizona because it would be great if McCain were to lose his home state. BUT my FIRST choice would have been TEXAS, my state (with 34 EVs), if it had been on the list of options. It is time for Texas to turn BLUE!
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DocJess 71p · 857 weeks ago

Honest Leah, I only had 10 spaces, and I looked for ANY WAY I could have gotten Texas on the list, but the numbers just weren't there. But I considered putting "Sorry Leah" somewhere in the post....I feel for you, and don't worry -- change comes. When I moved here, I was the ONLY Democrat on my block.
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tmess2 70p · 857 weeks ago

I went with Missouri because as a Missouri Dem, I want to see a tidal wave of blue sweeping up and down ballot in the state. From a more national perspective, Florida and North Carolina would also be good states for a blue tidal wave of change.
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