Thursday, October 30, 2008

Today's Election Poll

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

I'm personally going to be curious after the election to see which pollsters came closest to the actual numbers. They all have mixed prior results.

But there is one group who has called 12 of the last 13 elections correctly. Here's their map for 2008:



Who are these kids? The Weekly Reader gang. Since I was corrected when I put up the Scholastic post, this really IS the publication which brings us Goofus and Gallant.

UPDATE: I have ONCE AGAIN confused my childhood magazines. See the comments. Apologies, I have a lot on my mind. Rumour has it there's some election or other next week sometime...(tired smile)

Posted by DocJess at 8:42 AM

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Kevin M's avatar

Kevin M · 857 weeks ago

I'm not going to complain about this map. I certainly hope a number of these states they paint blue will go that way... but what's up with Hew Hampshire? That said, GA may be possible, but MS? That's a bit far-fetched. And if Obama takes AK, SD and MT... WOW.
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uplandpoet's avatar

uplandpoet · 857 weeks ago

have they gotten the evs right or just winners?
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PatriotActor's avatar

PatriotActor · 857 weeks ago

The Weekly Reader really is Highlights Magazine?
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lainy's avatar

lainy · 857 weeks ago

yeah...i loved weekly ready as a child, same with highlights... but alaska blue in 08? not sure if i believe that.
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Mark's avatar

Mark · 857 weeks ago

I think Gallop will end up with bragging right as the closest, but only because they are the only one to be indecisive enough to publish a registered voter figure and two likely voter models. They have three data points, plus a couple more if they want to use averages of the three. Certainly with a shotgun style scatter point of options at least one of them will give gallop bragging rights. Its a bit wishy-washy in my opinion, but at least they are the only one to be open about the fact that this is an election which is uniquely difficult to estimate. Under normal circumstances the traditional model for estimating likely voters is most reliable, but not this time. A range of estimates is probably the best way to approach things this year.
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Mquist's avatar

Mquist · 857 weeks ago

Minnesota will go read only over my vold dead body - ant gona happen.
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Dave's avatar

Dave · 857 weeks ago

Wow. Texas and Alaska?!? Not holding my breath...but how sweet would that be? :)
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SLCScott's avatar - Go to profile

SLCScott 74p · 857 weeks ago

Hmm...even if school-age kids reflect the way their parents vote, that only accounts for voters who have school-age kids. They're likely to be--what, maybe in their 30's or early 40's? So those states in the South and the mountains that are blue on this map may be a look into the future.

On the other hand, college kids also don't generally have school-age kids, so places where that's a key slice may undercount Obama support--I'm thinking New Hampshire and North Carolina.
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Yoshiyahu's avatar

Yoshiyahu · 857 weeks ago

SLCScott -- I think you are on the right track here, especially when, from the article, it sounded like older kids leaned less to Obama.

But what I want to know is which election the Weekly Reader poll NOT pick correctly?
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