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DCW House Forecast: 246.5 (+10.5) [was 245.8 (+9.8)]. Eight districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with no districts moving the GOP's way. Cook has joined Rasmussen at 31 Tossups. Note that these forecasts have a history of not wanting to move pickup seats into the Lean category without without really good data. But it wouldn't take much of a wave to pick up another 5-10 seats above the current forecast.
Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.
The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.
We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup, except for NY-13, which is a pickup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.
The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.
| DCW House Forecast | |||||||
| State | Current | SSP | Cook | Crystal Ball | Roth | CQ | .... |
| Date | 10/5 | 10/2 | 9/24 | 9/30 | 10/5 | ||
| Dem | 5 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 1 | ||
| Dem-Lean | 20 | 13 | 18 | 6 | 23 | ||
| Tossup | 23 | 31 | 19 | 31 | 17 | ||
| Rep-Lean | 14 | 11 | 18 | 11 | 20 | ||
| Rep | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 7 | ||
| Dem-Prediction | 35.3 | 35.1 | 32.5 | 32.5 | 31.9 | ||
| Dem (not shown) | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | 213 | ||
| House Projection | 248.3 | 248.1 | 245.5 | 245.5 | 244.9 | ||
| Dem-Gain | 12.3 | 12.1 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 8.9 | ||
| NY 13 (Open) | R | D | D | D | D | D | |
| NY 25 (Open) | R | D | D | DL | D | DL | |
| VA 11 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 1 (Open) | R | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| AK AL (Young) | R | T | T | DL | D | DL | |
| IL 11 (Open) | R | T | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| NJ 3 (Open) | R | DL | T | T | T | T | |
| CT 4 (Shays) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MI 7 (Wahlberg) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| MN 3 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NJ 7 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NM 1 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| NV 3 (Porter) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 15 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| OH 16 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| WA 8 (Reichert) | R | T | T | T | T | T | |
| CO 4 (Musgrave) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| LA 4 (Open) | R | T | T | T | T | RL | |
| NC 8 (Hayes) | R | T | T | RL | T | T | |
| AL 2 (Open) | R | T | T | T | RL | RL | |
| FL 24 (Feeney) | R | T | T | RL | T | RL | |
| MI 9 (Knollenberg) | R | T | T | RL | RL | T | |
| NM 2 (Open) | R | T | T | RL | T | RL | |
| FL 21 (Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | T | RL | T | RL | |
| NY 29 (Kuhl) | R | RL | T | RL | T | RL | |
| OH 1 (Chabot) | R | T | T | RL | RL | RL | |
| PA 3 (English) | R | T | T | RL | RL | RL | |
| FL 8 (Keller) | R | RL | T | R | T | RL | |
| NY 26 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | T | RL | |
| IL 10 (Kirk) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| MO 6 (Graves) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | RL | |
| MO 9 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| OH 2 (Schmidt) | R | RL | R | RL | RL | RL | |
| VA 2 (Drake) | R | RL | RL | RL | RL | R | |
| FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart) | R | RL | RL | R | RL | R | |
| ID 1 (Sali) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | R | |
| KY 2 (Open) | R | RL | RL | R | RL | R | |
| MD 1 (Open) | R | RL | RL | RL | R | R | |
| NV 2 (Heller) | R | R | RL | RL | R | RL | |
| CA 4 (Open) | R | RL | R | R | R | RL | |
| FL 13 (Buchanan) | R | R | R | RL | R | RL | |
| NE 2 (Terry) | R | R | RL | R | R | R | |
| WV 2 (Moore Capito) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
| WY AL (Open) | R | R | R | R | R | RL | |
| TX 22 (Lampson) | D | T | T | T | RL | T | |
| LA 6 (Cazayoux) | D | T | T | T | T | T | |
| AL 5 (Open) | D | DL | T | T | T | T | |
| KS 2 (Boyda) | D | DL | T | T | T | T | |
| PA 11 (Kanjorski) | D | T | T | T | T | DL | |
| FL 16 (Mahoney) | D | DL | DL | T | T | T | |
| NH 1 (Shea-Porter) | D | DL | T | DL | T | DL | |
| PA 10 (Carney) | D | DL | T | DL | T | DL | |
| CA 11 (McNerney) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| GA 8 (Marshall) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| WI 8 (Kagen) | D | DL | DL | DL | T | DL | |
| MS 1 (Childers) | D | DL | T | DL | D | DL | |
| AZ 5 (Mitchell) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| AZ 8 (Giffords) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| KY 3 (Yarmuth) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| PA 4 (Altmire) | D | DL | DL | DL | DL | DL | |
| IL 14 (Foster) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| IN 9 (Hill) | D | DL | DL | DL | D | DL | |
| NY 20 (Gillibrand) | D | DL | D | DL | D | DL | |
| OR 5 (Open) | D | DL | D | D | DL | DL | |
| CT 5 (Murphy) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| MN 1 (Walz) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| TX 23 (Rodriguez) | D | D | D | D | D | DL | |
| SSP | Cook | Crystal Ball | Roth | CQ | .... | ||
Click for Notes and Graph
The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.
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