Sunday, October 05, 2008

House Forecast - 10/5 - I have 10; do I hear 15?

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DCW House Forecast: 246.5 (+10.5) [was 245.8 (+9.8)]. Eight districts had movement in the Democratic direction, with no districts moving the GOP's way. Cook has joined Rasmussen at 31 Tossups. Note that these forecasts have a history of not wanting to move pickup seats into the Lean category without without really good data. But it wouldn't take much of a wave to pick up another 5-10 seats above the current forecast.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup, except for NY-13, which is a pickup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State
CurrentSSPCookCrystal BallRothCQ....
Date

10/510/29/249/3010/5
Dem

575101
Dem-Lean

201318623
Tossup

2331193117
Rep-Lean

1411181120
Rep

668107
Dem-Prediction

35.335.132.532.531.9
Dem (not shown)

213213213213213
House Projection

248.3248.1245.5245.5244.9
Dem-Gain

12.312.19.59.58.9

NY 13 (Open)
RDDDDD
NY 25 (Open)
RDDDLDDL
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 1 (Open)
RDLDLDLTDL
AK AL (Young)
RTTDLDDL
IL 11 (Open)
RTDLDLTDL
NJ 3 (Open)
RDLTTTT
CT 4 (Shays)
RTTTTT
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTTTT
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
NV 3 (Porter)
RTTTTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 16 (Open)
RTTTTT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTTTTT
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTTTRL
LA 4 (Open)
RTTTTRL
NC 8 (Hayes)
RTTRLTT
AL 2 (Open)
RTTTRLRL
FL 24 (Feeney)
RTTRLTRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RTTRLRLT
NM 2 (Open)
RTTRLTRL
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RRLTRLTRL
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RRLTRLTRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RTTRLRLRL
PA 3 (English)
RTTRLRLRL
FL 8 (Keller)
RRLTRTRL
NY 26 (Open)
RRLRLRLTRL
IL 10 (Kirk)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRLRLRLRL
MO 9 (Open)
RRLRLRLRRL
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRLRRLRLRL
VA 2 (Drake)
RRLRLRLRLR
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
RRLRLRRLR
ID 1 (Sali)
RRLRLRLRR
KY 2 (Open)
RRLRLRRLR
MD 1 (Open)
RRLRLRLRR
NV 2 (Heller)
RRRLRLRRL
CA 4 (Open)
RRLRRRRL
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRRLRRL
NE 2 (Terry)
RRRLRRR
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRRRRRL
WY AL (Open)
RRRRRRL

TX 22 (Lampson)
DTTTRLT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTTTTT
AL 5 (Open)
DDLTTTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DDLTTTT
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DTTTTDL
FL 16 (Mahoney)
DDLDLTTT
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DDLTDLTDL
PA 10 (Carney)
DDLTDLTDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DDLDLDLTDL
GA 8 (Marshall)
DDLDLDLTDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLTDL
MS 1 (Childers)
DDLTDLDDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDLDLDLDLDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDLDLDLDLDL
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDLDLDLDDL
IN 9 (Hill)
DDLDLDLDDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDLDDLDDL
OR 5 (Open)
DDLDDDLDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDDL
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDDDL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDDL


SSPCookCrystal BallRothCQ....











































































































Click for Notes and Graph


The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.