Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Senate and House updates

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

While Franken officially trails by 210 according to the Strib, the Franken campaign still claims Coleman's lead is really in double-digits. The campaign is also concerned about missing ballots.

Pollster.com has their GA-Senate runoff chart up:



Virginia has officially certified the election of Democrat Tom Perriello by 745 votes in VA-5. There's a recount coming here also, but the margin seems large enough to hold up in a Congressional District. This seat would give the Democrats a net gain of 21.

But in CA-4, Republican Tom McClintock declared victory over Democrat Charlie Brown. McClintock’s lead has grown to 1,566, with only about 4,600 ballots left to be counted.

Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15 won a lawsuit Friday requiring over 27,000 disputed ballots to be counted. She currently trails by 479 votes, but this one ain't over yet.

Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick has not officially conceded in CA-44, but he's down by around 9,000 votes with about 20,000 left to count.

Posted by Matt at 12:45 AM

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KarenAnne 67p · 853 weeks ago

Having seen images of some of the ludicrous challenges in the Coleman-Franken race, I don't think we have any idea of what the margin is until the challenged ballots are resolved.
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SLCScott 74p · 853 weeks ago

Just a clarification on the Kilroy ruling. There are 27,000 provisional ballots, which in some sense are inherently "disputed." But the court case applies to 1,000 of them that had technical errors in the way they were filled out. However, the other 26,000 can't be examined until the status of the first 1,000 is decided.

So if Kilroy had lost the court case, there would be 26,000 provisional ballots still to examine. Since she won, there are 27,000. In either case, since they're provisional, many of them will end up being disallowed (e.g. the person really wasn't registered), but those that are allowed will tilt Democratic (based on past history).
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tmess2 70p · 853 weeks ago

On the Senate re-count, Nate Silvers at 538 has been doing number crunching. While I don't buy his analysis of the likely result (mostly because it involves two many questionable assumptions), he has noted that the rate of challenges has been increasing. As of yesterday, we were at approximately 18 challenges per candidate per 10,000 votes (or a total of 36 challenges per 10,000 votes). At that rate, given the number of ballots left to be counted, we are likely to end up with more than 5,000 challenges. If the rate continues to rise as dramatically as it has, we could end up looking at more than 7,000 challenges.

The canvassing board is scheduled to meet Wednesday to discuss the absentee ballot issue. I hope that, when they do, they also change the schedule of meetings because, with this many challenges, it is going to take a long time to work through them all.
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tmess2 70p · 853 weeks ago

On the Ohio House race, while the judge has delayed the start of the count in Franklin County to at least Friday, the final report from the other two counties is due by today. I believe that Union is the county that has already submitted their final numbers, so we should have numbers out of Madison today. The Madison number should increase the margin to around 600. Based on the numbers I have seen as still outstanding in Franklin, Kilroy should be able to take the lead when Franklin finally counts its ballots.
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tmess2 70p · 853 weeks ago

Update from Madison, additional votes from absentee and provisional ballots, Stivers 373, Kilroy 258. Margin is now 594.

Update from Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals, district court decision vacated for want of federal jurisdiction. Case remanded to Ohio Supreme Court.

Update from Ohio Supreme Court, records and briefs to be filed by December 1st. (Presumably expedited oral argument and opinion soon thereafter.)

Source for all of the above -- Columbus Dispatch.
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