Polling Update - October 1st

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Rasmussen Tracking Poll: Obama 51, McCain 45 (Yesterday: Obama 51, McCain 45).
Hotline: Obama 47, McCain 42 (Yesterday: Obama 47, McCain 41).
Daily Kos: Obama 51, McCain 41 (Yesterday: Obama 51, McCain 41).
Gallup: Obama 48, McCain 44 (Yesterday: Obama 49, McCain 43).

Four poll average: Obama 49.25, McCain 43 (Obama 49.5, McCain 42.5).

Here's the overall national trend from Pollster.com in a cool new embeddable format.

And according to a new TIME poll, women are moving back to Obama in large numbers.

Obama now leads McCain 50%-43% overall, up from 46%-41% before the parties' national conventions a month ago. Obama's support is not just broader, but sturdier too; 23% of McCain supporters say they might change their mind, while only 15% of Obama's say they could be persuaded to switch.

Among the poll's most dramatic findings: McCain is losing female voters faster than Sarah Palin attracted them after the Republican convention. Obama leads McCain by 17 points with women, 55%-38%. Before the conventions, women preferred Obama by a margin of 10 points, 49%-39%. After McCain picked Palin as his running mate, the gap narrowed to a virtual tie, with Obama holding a one point margin, 48%-47%.