Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 10/1

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

Just a quick mini-update - we'll have a full update tomorrow evening.

Earlier this evening we discussed reality - how Obama's 270th EV at best comes from a state that is only +1 (VA or FL) in the Pollster average.

But McCain does have to win all those states, plus CO, to break 270 himself, and that gives Obama an overall significant advantage. The current projection is 299-239, with the understanding that even those projections which updated today (538, OpenLeft, Elec-Vote, RCP, CNN, FHQ) may not have taken all the late polls today into account. We should see more movement in tomorrow's forecast. (Note also that NBC said they will be moving PA to Obama-Lean in their next update - I assume on Monday).