Thursday, October 02, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 10/2 - What did you watch on TV tonight?

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

Baselining the numbers before the VP debate, Obama now leads 301-237, the first time he's been over 300 EVs in our Forecast since Aug. 3. Again, the number of McCain-Lean states stays abnormally low.

VA is our tipping point state, and, for the first time, the tipping point state has two projections showing it as Lean-Obama or better.

Map changes: Towards Obama: IA, OR: OL->O.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: CO, MI, MN, MO, PA, VA, WI.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVs538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNFHQElect. Proj.NBCEVs
Date

10/2.10/1.10/2.10/2.10/2.10/1.10/1.9/29.9/29.
Obama-Strong (O)

282240192171200160168153157
Obama-Lean (OL)

516068896090547055
Tossup (T)

42751151159399138141152
McCain-Lean (ML)

356051164262214
McCain-Strong (M)

160158103158174125152152160
Obama Total

333300260260260250222223212
McCain Total

163163163163185189178174174
Obama Est.

331327306301298290287286282

California
55OOOOOOOOO55
Conn.
7OOOOOOOOO62
DC
3OOOOOOOOO65
Delaware
3OOOOOOOOO68
Hawaii
4OOOOOOOOO72
Illinois
21OOOOOOOOO93
Maryland
10OOOOOOOOO103
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOO115
New York
31OOOOOOOOO146
Rhode Island
4OOOOOOOOO150
Vermont
3OOOOOOOOO153
Maine
4OOOLOOOLOOLO157
Iowa
7OOOOOOLOLOLOL164
Oregon
7OOOOOLOOLOLOL171
New Jersey
15OOOOLOOLOLOLOL186
Washington
11OOOLOLOOLOOLOL197
New Mexico
5OOOLOLOLOLOLOLOL202
Minnesota
10OOLOOLOOLOLTOL212
Pennsylvania
21OOOLOLOLOLTOLT233
Michigan
17OOOLOLOLOLTTT250
Wisconsin
10OOLOLOLOLTOLTT260
Virginia
13OOLTTTTTTT273
Florida
27OLOLTTTTTTT300
Colorado
9OTTTTTTTT309
NH
4OLTTTTTTTT313
Ohio
20OLTTTTTTTT333
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT338
N. Carolina
15TTTTTMLMLTT353
Missouri
11TTTTMTTTML364
Indiana
11TTTTMLMLTMLT375
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMLMMLMLMLM0
Montana
3MMMMMMLMLMML
Arkansas
6MMMMMMLMMLM
Georgia
15MMMLMMMLMMM
N. Dakota
3MLMMMMMMLMM
Louisiana
9MMMMMMLMMM
Mississippi
6MMMLMMMMMM
Texas
34MMMLMMMMMM
Alabama
9MMMMMMMMM
Alaska
3MMMMMMMMM
Arizona
10MMMMMMMMM
Idaho
4MMMMMMMMM
Kansas
6MMMMMMMMM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMMMM
Oklahoma
7MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Dakota
3MMMMMMMMM
Tennessee
11MMMMMMMMM
Utah
5MMMMMMMMM
Wyoming
3MMMMMMMMM


538
.com
Open LeftEV.
com
RCPRMCNNFHQElect. Proj.NBC....
























































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.

Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this week, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, OR (Obama), AR, GA, LA, MS, MT, ND, TX (McCain), boosting McCain by a total of 1 EV overall.