Sunday, November 02, 2008

Exit Polls

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at

We could do multiple posts on the subject of exit polls, but we'll just summarize here, and link to other resources:

  • There are no more early leaks of exit polls. You won't see any on the net until after 5:00
  • Exit polls will not tell you who will win a state that is close. There are just too many inherent errors in the process for them to be that accurate. And the networks are no longer using them to call states that are close based just on exit polls.
  • Exit polls will not indicate whether there was voter fraud if the numbers don't match. Exit polls are just not that accurate.
  • Exit polls have adjusted their methodology to pick up early voters, doing random telephone polls in 18 states that have extensive early voting.
The NY Times has a good overview of the process, and Mark Blumenthal at will likely be all over the story this week.