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Senate Forecast: 58.1 (+7.1), a decrease of 0.2 from the previous forecast. Democrats have an excellent chance of picking up the first 7 seats on the chart: VA, CO, NM, AK, NH, OR and NC get us to 58. MN is a tossup, and we'll need Obama's ground game in GA, MS and KY to win there. (GA will have a December runoff in the increasingly likely chance that no candidate gets 50%).
This will be the final Senate Forecast unless another GOP Senator gets convicted before election day. Hey, you never know.
The Senate Forecast is an average of the projections of the Democratic held seats in the 2009 Senate. (We count Sanders and Lieberman as Democrats in the Senate Forecast. Feel free to subtract one if you so desire!) A history of the Forecast going back to November 2006 is at bottom and in the left sidebar.
Be sure to join us on election night for great coverage of what looks to be an historic night!
Please also check out our Presidential Forecast and our House Forecast.
The following seats are unanimous strong and are not shown in the table below (We do show VA as it is a pickup).
Solid Democrat: AR (Pryor), DE (Biden), IA (Harkin). IL (Durbin), MA (Kerry), MI (Levin), MT (Baucus), NJ (Lautenberg), RI (Reed), SD (Johnson), WV (Rockefeller).
Solid Republican: AL (Sessions), ID (Open), KS (Roberts), MS (Cochrane), NE (Open), OK (Inhofe), SC (Graham), TN (Alexander), WY (Barraso), WY (Enzi).
|DemConWatch Senate Forecast|
|Dem '08 Projection||19.7||19.5||19.3||19.3||19.3||18.8||18.4||18.4|
|Dem '10/'12 Seats||39||39||39||39||39||39||39||39|
|Dem Senate Projection||58.7||58.5||58.3||58.3||58.3||57.8||57.4||57.4|
The Senate Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat (or seats that are not up for reelection this cycle), 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and obviously 0 seats for a solid Republican seat or a Republican seat not up for reelection this cycle.