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Obama leads 337-201, down 4 EV from the last projection, but still with a commanding lead.
The state-by-state map consensus is Obama 291 (-20) (Strong-243(-12), Lean-48(-8)), McCain 160(-3) (Strong-127, Lean-33(-3)), Tossup: 87 (+23).
Map changes: Towards Obama: NH, NM: OL->O, MT: ML->T. Towards McCain: PA: O->OL, OH: OL->T.
Be sure to join us on tomorrow for great coverage of what looks to be an historic night!
Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.
The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted from Obama-Strong to McCain -Strong. The right column shows a running total of Obama's EVs. States in 3 or more categories: AZ, GA, NV, ND, OH, VA.
| DCW Presidential Forecast | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | Open Left | 538 .com | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | RCP | FHQ | NBC | CNN | RM | EVs |
| Date | 11/3. | 11/3. | 11/3. | 11/3. | 11/3. | 11/3. | 11/3. | 11/3. | 11/3. | ||
| Obama-Strong (O) | 273 | 311 | 228 | 226 | 228 | 264 | 227 | 210 | 260 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 65 | 27 | 83 | 52 | 50 | 22 | 59 | 81 | 26 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 29 | 26 | 95 | 125 | 128 | 89 | 95 | 90 | 92 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 39 | 17 | 14 | 26 | 14 | 11 | 33 | 36 | 0 | ||
| McCain-Strong (M) | 132 | 157 | 118 | 109 | 118 | 152 | 124 | 121 | 160 | ||
| Obama Total | 338 | 338 | 311 | 278 | 278 | 286 | 286 | 291 | 286 | ||
| McCain Total | 171 | 174 | 132 | 135 | 132 | 163 | 157 | 157 | 160 | ||
| Obama Est. | 347 | 347 | 346 | 335 | 336 | 328 | 331 | 332 | 328 | ||
| California | 55 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 55 |
| Conn. | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 62 |
| DC | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 65 |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 68 |
| Hawaii | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 72 |
| Illinois | 21 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 93 |
| Maryland | 10 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 103 |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 115 |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 130 |
| New York | 31 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 161 |
| Oregon | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 168 |
| Rhode Island | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 172 |
| Vermont | 3 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 175 |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | 186 |
| Iowa | 7 | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | 193 |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | O | 197 |
| Michigan | 17 | O | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | O | 214 |
| Minnesota | 10 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | O | OL | O | 224 |
| Wisconsin | 10 | O | O | OL | O | O | O | O | OL | O | 234 |
| NH | 4 | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | OL | OL | 238 |
| New Mexico | 5 | O | O | OL | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | 243 |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | O | 264 |
| Colorado | 9 | O | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | 273 |
| Virginia | 13 | OL | O | OL | T | T | OL | OL | OL | OL | 286 |
| Nevada | 5 | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | T | 291 |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | O | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | 311 |
| Florida | 27 | OL | OL | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 338 |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 349 |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 364 |
| Indiana | 11 | ML | ML | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | 375 |
| Montana | 3 | ML | ML | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | 378 |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | ML | T | ML | T | ML | T | T | M | 381 |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | M | T | T | T | M | ML | ML | M | 391 |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | M | T | T | T | M | ML | ML | M | 406 |
| W. Virginia | 5 | M | M | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | |
| Arkansas | 6 | M | M | ML | ML | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | M | M | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | |
| Louisiana | 9 | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alabama | 9 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Alaska | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Idaho | 4 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Oklahoma | 7 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Tennessee | 11 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Texas | 34 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Utah | 5 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Wyoming | 3 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Open Left | 538 .com | EV. com | Elect. Proj. | RCP | FHQ | NBC | CNN | RM | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ - FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
The overall projection is just a straight average of each projections' estimate of Electoral Votes (EVs) for each candidate. For each projection other than FiveThirtyEight, we give Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean, and 0% of the Solid McCain states. Exact opposite for McCain. For FiveThirtyEight, we use their overall estimate of Obama's EVs, not the state-by-state categories.
Any state which is majority Strong, and has no Tossups, is considered to be Strong for all projections. The categories in the chart are original, but the final number for each projection is adjusted. For this forecast, the following states were affected by this change: IA, ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, WI (Obama), AR, LA, SD (McCain). This change has added 2 EVs to Obama's total.
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uplandpoet 69p · 857 weeks ago
Still kinda boggles my mind that WVA is less likely to vote blue than Ariz or Georgia!!!
I guess a bunch of poor white people who think black folks are coalminers in need of a bath are pretty hard to overcome, even for all those kids at Marshall WVU and the other schools in the beautiful state that God forgot....
OregonDem · 857 weeks ago
See you tomorrow night and lets all hope the American people see what we should do and vote for what we should do over fear....
Oregon Dem
PS Once again - my thoughts and prayers go out to Obama and his family at this time of their loss.
Leah 85p · 857 weeks ago
DON'T forget that the Saturday Night Live ELECTION BASH 2008 is tonight at 9pm (ET)
*
KarenAnne 67p · 857 weeks ago
http://members.cox.net/katkolling/election night.xls
For the projected EVs, I used the DCW map. If a state was entirely tossups, I left those blank. If it had a total of 3 to 1 solids or leans, I put a question mark after the projected.
This made me notice that no state has a mix of lean Obama and lean McCain. Does that say the polls are good?
Rasmussen called me tonight. They aren't kidding about identifying people who will actually vote. There were at least three questions in there asking that in various forms, including the last of the set, which went something like often people are certain that they will vote, but something happens which makes that difficult or nearly impossible. If something like that happens, do you still intend to vote? (I envisioned myself crawling to the polls over nuclear rubble, and said yes ;-)
suzihussein22 · 857 weeks ago
Peter Zenger 62p · 857 weeks ago
There is another analyst who sees this as a 338 win for Obama.
http://www.rove.com/uploads/0000/0051/McCain-Obam...
Yep. That is none other than KARL ROVE's map.