Monday, November 03, 2008

Remember: Ignore the exit polls

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

First McCain memo we've agreed with:

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media's own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate's support.
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The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
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After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points[1] better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

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Daniel OBrien's avatar

Daniel OBrien · 856 weeks ago

Or they want to cover their voter suppression operations by claiming the exit polls are never really accurate when in fact they are.
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well exit poll variation would not reflect voter suppression. if the polls are correct, the only thing that would account for the variance would be vote tampering....
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but doesn't the exit poll not include early votes, implying it very well may overstate McCain's numbers?
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Dink Singer's avatar

Dink Singer · 856 weeks ago

The reason exit polls in this country are unreliable has nothing to do with the polls. It is that the actual voting is unreliable, because a great many Democratic votes are not counted. In other countries, exit polls are used to detect election fraud and that is exactly what they reveal here.
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