Wednesday, November 05, 2008

What would the map look like if McCain won by the same margin?

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If you give Obama North Carolina and McCain Missouri the outcome for this year's election will be 364-174. If the score was reverse, what would the results look like?

Using DailyKos' map I got as close as possible... and it wasn't easy.

Click on the picture for full-size
For Obama to get the about the same amount of Electoral Votes as McCain got he would only have to win 10 states and DC.

If anybody tries to say yesterday wasn't a landslide... show them this map.

Posted by Oreo at 5:30 PM

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Long Island Democrat's avatar

Long Island Democrat · 857 weeks ago

How about this to get to exactly 364? Obama wins HI, OR, CA, WA, IL, MD, DE, DC, VT, CT, RI and gets three out of four Maine electoral votes but loses one of its congressional districts.

Doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility in a disastrous year. Fortunately it wasn't!
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billy's avatar

billy · 857 weeks ago

if you go by the actual margin, Obama gets to 269 after Iowa, which he won by 9.2% -- so even if McCain won the popular vote by 3% (instead of Obama winning by 6%), Obama could still have gotten enough EV's to win.

But to your point, taking the states in order of their Obama margins, it should look like WA, CA, IL, then stuff in the northeast: ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, and DE, MD, DC. Plus Obama gets 1/3 of Michigan. (Note that Obama won Michigan by 16%.)

So the difference between mine and yours is OR and NJ, instead of ME, VT, RI, CT and part of Michigan.
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uplandpoet 69p · 857 weeks ago

obama wins by 6-7% wins more than double the evs as mccain, wins nearly 30 states, wins in several states that have been red for awhile. let them call it what they will, it was a landslide and it was a pretty good repudiation of GOP govt!
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uplandpoet 69p · 857 weeks ago

or, as CNN puts it:
The Republican Party faces a long list of problems with no clear national leader and an identity crisis that will play out during a period of good will for the first African-American elected president.

Barack Obama not only won a clear majority of the votes Tuesday night, but he won with a coalition that dramatically recolored the Electoral College map and creates an opportunity for Democrats to have the upper hand after a long period of Republican electoral dominance.

It is the combination of Obama's success among young voters and Latino voters that many Republican strategists see as particularly troubling to their party's long-term health.

"We learned from the Ronald Reagan years how generational support for a candidate can ripple through the demographics for years to come," said one leading GOP strategist close to the McCain campaign.

In other words, young voters who were attracted to Reagan in 1980 remained loyal to Republicans as they aged, providing the base on the party's presidential success over the past 25 years. Video Watch how Obama won in GOP country »

In digesting Obama's 67 percent to 31 percent edge over McCain among Latino voters, this strategist said, "We've got to get a handle on these voters before they turn completely. They have become increasingly the key to a number of critical swing states."
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Ryan's avatar

Ryan · 857 weeks ago

Why wouldn't you just flip the Red and Blue, that seems the easiest way to make the margin the same. Ooooh, or, if you really wanted to make a useless point, try ordering the states by electoral votes, and then just pick from the top of the list until you get to 174 for Blue, then it'll REALLY look red. That'll show 'em!
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