Sunday, August 31, 2008

Cranky media lands in St. Paul

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We've long expected the media arriving in St. Paul to be tired and grumpy, and we were right:

D.C.-based Hearst News Service reporter Jennifer Dlouhy was standing on the 8th floor of the Mill City Museum at a pre-convention media party last night, overlooking the Mississippi River in downtown Minneapolis. She said that compared to Denver, where the Democrats just wrapped up their convention, "It’s far better food, a far more beautiful backdrop."

"But,” she said of the reporters, “they’re not having as much fun. Maybe they’re just tired.”
...
This week's challenge for reporters, assuming the convention even goes ahead, will be warding off convention fatigue.

“This is like running a marathon and being told you have another 20 miles to go, but at least this 20 miles is indoors,” said New York 1 News political director Robert Hardt, who, like many others here already, flew into town straight from Denver. He was referring to the last-night move in Denver from the intimate Pepsi Center to the outdoor Invesco Field.
...
Later, standing in the 5th floor lobby of the Marriot Hotel, where New York reporters and delegates are staying, Daily News reporter Liz Benjamin explained, “You got an exhausted media crew. Nobody wants to go out drinking all night. For the first five days, it’s a party, for the second, it’s a grind. I’m more interested in getting six hours of sleep instead of four,” she said. Then, she went to bed. It was 10 p.m.

Original GOP Monday Convention Schedule

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For the record, the original Monday Republican Convention Schedule is below. We had heard earlier today that Bush might address the convention via satellite, but not that there is no evening session, those plans are obviously up in the air.
See the original Monday schedule...
What was to have been the Monday GOP convention line-up...
President George W. Bush
Vice President Richard B. Cheney
First Lady Laura Bush
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minn.)
Gov. Rick Perry (Texas)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (Calif.)
President George W. Bush
Vice President Richard B. Cheney
First Lady Laura Bush
Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minn.)
Gov. Rick Perry (Texas)
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (Calif.)
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.)
U.S. Sen. Richard Burr (N.C.)
U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman (Minn.)
U.S. Sen. John Ensign (Nev.)
U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman (Conn.)
House Republican Leader John Boehner (Ohio)
U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.)
U.S. Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.)
U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (Fla.)
U.S. Rep. Thelma Drake (Va.)
U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk (Ill.)
U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (Calif)
Robert M. (Mike) Duncan, Chairman of the Republican National Committee
Jo Ann Davidson, Co-Chairman of the Republican National Committee and Chairman of the 2008 Republican National Convention Committee on Arrangements
Maria Cino, President and CEO of the 2008 Republican National Convention
Tommy Espinoza
Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard, U.S. Air Force (Ret.)
Bill Gross
Ashley Gunn
Chris Hackett
Doug Leatherdale
Jay Love
Cynthia Lummis
Erik Paulsen
Capt. Leslie Smith, U.S. Army (Ret.)

Yes, Gustav is serious....

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I do not wish to understate the potential devastation of Gustav. For most people, most disasters are abstractions. For many of the people I know personally, 9/11 was bad, but impersonal. For me, and all the other native New Yorkers, it had that abject terror of spending that morning trying to find our relatives and friends who worked in the World Trade Center. (The three hours that my dad and I spent looking for my brother, who was thankfully found alive, was something I wouldn't wish on anyone.)

As a doctor who watched in horror as patients died during Katrina, I am terrified at the low numbers of patients who have been evacuated. Yesterday, 43 gravely ill people were evacuated, and the goal number this morning was 1000 by the end of the day. The hospitals had originally intended to stay open, but then decided they could not.

If you live on the Gulf Coast, I know I speak for all of us here at DCW when I say that we hope you have evacuated, and are reading us safely inland. If you have friends and relatives who live in the danger zone, you have our greatest hopes that your people have left, and too are safe.

Having said AND MEANT that, as we await what will hopefully be a logistic nightmare with NO deaths, we may want to consider the Republicans. (Just to take our minds off things.)

I heard John McCain speaking today, and he said that they "need to be Americans today, and not Republicans." Yes, I know what he meant, but still, it's a fun image.

So let's think about what the Republicans will do this week to show that they ARE Americans and not Republicans. Remember that during the impending Midwest floods this spring, John and George went to Iowa, stayed 35 miles apart, and made speeches. Barack Obama drove out and filled sand bags.

Please use the comments to say what you think the Republicans should do.

Your take:

Republicans cancel most of Monday's events

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John McCain tore up the script for his Republican National Convention on Sunday, ordering the cancellation of all but essential opening-day activities as Hurricane Gustav churned toward New Orleans.

"This is a time when we have to do away with our party politics and we have to act as Americans," he said as fellow Republicans converged on their convention city to nominate him for the White House. - Strib



More from the Chicago Sun-Times

Campaign manager Rick Davis said the "program will be business only and refrain from political rhetoric." The session will open at 3 p.m. central and last about two or two-and-a half hours.

What happens Tuesday and will depend on conditions in the wake of the storm.

"We do expect all of the speakers to speak at some point," though it is not clear when of if this will happen, Davis said.

Convention coverage replay

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I am having some heartache that I did not TIVO the convention coverage. I got to see most of the replay on CNN late at night each day but I definitely want to watch parts again. I am particularly interested to see how Invesco Field looked on TV.
I was excited to see that C-SPAN has video of the speeches on their website at http://c-span.org/

I am also organizing and uploading pictures to my blog from the convention. Check it out from time to time at http://jstrater.blogspot.com/

Rally for the Republic starts today

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Tonight Ron Paul's Rally for the Republic takes off. As Matt wrote, the Ron Paul people had a great affect in Nevada on that state's participation at the presumptive Republican convention.

The final count this morning on sold tickets is 9,785, so the total number of people could surpass 12,000. I've been interested in whether there will be any press coverage, and originally, Lou Dobbs was supposed to be a presenter there, but no longer. On his web page, it says that he'll be covering it nightly during his show, but his picture has been taken off the Rally site, and he is no longer listed as a performer, as the Rally refers to all its presenters. I've looked for live feeds, but I cannot find a live link. If I find one later, I will post it.

I'm interested in this for three reasons: first, I find Ron Paul and what he stands for, fascinating. While almost all of the positions are diametrically opposed to my own, there are Libertarian points of view (like getting out of Iraq, and legalizing pot for personal use) that I agree with. Second, this is America, where Freedom of Speech is a dearly held concept, and finally, this group is really a splinter from the presumptive Republican Party.

The Republicans split in 1964, and the two sides never made peace. Had the Rockefeller side held sway that year, there is the potential that the evangelical right would never have risen to hold sway over the mainstream GOP. So here we are 40+ years later, and I want to know what the Paul people have to say.

And as an aside, I think it's cute that they have "performers" in lieu of "speakers" or "presenters" and that buses bringing people there yesterday are called "Ronvoys".

So what is going on there?

Today is training school: a nine-hour course on grass roots organizing.

Tomorrow is three parts: one part Ron Paul book signing, one giant all-day concert to thank the people who participated in Paul's campaign throughout the primary season, and a "leadership summit" about which I can find no information, except that if you bought a ticket to the Tuesday program, you get one ticket to this.

Finally, Tuesday is the real deal. This is their list of performers:

11:30 - Doors open
12:30 - Intro: Tucker Carlson
12:40 - National Anthem: Matt Colvin
12:50 - Invocation: Barb Davis White
12:55 - Howard Phillips
1:10 - Doug Wead
1:30 - Tom Woods
1:50 - Grover Norquist
2:10 - Lew Rockwell
2:30 - Bill Kauffman
2:50 - Special Guest
3:10 - Bruce Fein
3:35 - Gov. Jesse Ventura
4:05 - John Tate‚ Campaign for Liberty Presentation
4:25 - Gov. Gary Johnson
5:00 - Aimee Allen
6:00 - Break
7:00 - Intro: Barry Goldwater Jr.
7:05 - Ron Paul
8:05 - Sara Evans
9:30 - End of Program
9:30 - Jimmie Vaughan After Party

I'll be reporting on the information that comes out from the Rally. What I'll be looking for is how much of the Republican base wants to migrate from the McCain-Palin ticket over to write-in Ron Paul (and perhaps as another option, vote for Bob Barr.)

On the Democratic side, we talk often of this being a transformational year, and of the great enthusiasm we have for our ticket and our ideals. I suspect that the Paul people are equally passionate, although far lower in numbers. But if they can get a foothold, 2008 becomes as much a transformational year for the Republicans as it does for us. Could it be that 2008 is 1964 redux?

GOP Convention Committee calls Nevada State Party "inept"

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We've been following the Republican Nevada delegate fiasco with great glee. It's finally been resolved, but not without some final inter-party shots being taken:

With little time to spare, the Nevada Republican Party has named its delegation to next week's national convention, resolving an embarrassing dispute with supporters of former presidential candidate Ron Paul in a state John McCain is struggling to win.
...
The compromise list included at least four Paul supporters and nearly mirrored one recommended by a Republican National Committee panel asked to settle the dispute. The RNC Committee on Contests made the recommendation Wednesday in a report that slammed the Nevada GOP for appointing, rather than electing, its 34 delegates and 31 alternates.

The committee wrote it was "deeply troubled by the ineptness of the state party" and "rejects any process to select delegates and alternate delegates that restricts party grass-roots activists from participating in that process, as appears to be the case here."
...
Nevada's delegation dispute began when Paul supporters were poised to win delegates at a state party convention in Reno in April. The party abruptly shut down the convention and later attempts to reconvene failed because it could not get enough Republicans to attend.

Meanwhile, the Paul supporters held a rogue convention in June and named their own delegation.

The RNC committee ruled that the June convention was unauthorized. "Only a state party has the authority to convene a state convention," the committee wrote.

Wayne Terhune, a leading Paul supporter, called the decision "tyranny." He said he plans to attend an alternative convention held by Paul's "Campaign for Liberty." - MercuryNews.com

Where are the Republicans?

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Time Magazine's Karen Tumulty asks the question:

It's shortly before 8 a.m., and I'm at Reagan National Airport getting ready to board my flight to Minneapolis. Last week at this time, this airport was jammed. My Fortune magazine colleague Nina Easton, who traveled at this hour then and is marveling at the contrast now, says they were holding flights, because they couldn't get the throngs of people loaded.

This morning: No lines at security, no waiting at the ticket kiosks. Even the TSA guys are commenting at the emptiness of the place. Maybe the Republicans got there early.

Gustav Update: 9 a.m. Sunday

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Despite the dire warnings, many people cannot afford to leave New Orleans, or they are just unwilling to do so.

Meanwhile, Bush and Cheney are planning on staying home.

At this hour, Gustav is still a Cat 3, although expected to intensify by this afternoon. The models have it making land fall on Monday, likely as a Cat 4.

There are mandatory evacuations in Louisiana, and low-lying areas in Mississippi and Alabama.

Many roads are now contraflow to ease evacuation. Buses have been taking people out of New Orleans, although there are still people waiting as of this hour.

There will be no shelter of last resort in New Orleans: neither the City nor the Red Cross is setting anything up. New Orleans announced that if you DO stay, you are on your own, and if you are caught off your property during curfew, they will probably arrest you.

Sunday with the Senators – Republican Edition

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Let’s start in New Hampshire. John Sununu (R) has decided against attending the Republican Convention. Jeanne Shaheen not only attended the Democratic Convention, but spoke. I guess if I were him, I’d stay home, too, since the most recent polls have him down 9 points (Rasmussen) and 11 points (ARG).

In Oregon, Gordon Smith is another Republican staying home from the GOP Convention. And again, if I were him….here is the newest DSCC ad:



Oh, and by the way, when we look at the polls, when it all started, Smith was at 45% and Jeff Merkley was at 25%. Most recent averages have Smith at 49%, Merkley at 41%.

Liddy Dole, Republican of North Carolina, is also passing on the convention. Perhaps people besides me have picked up on the SHE DOESN’T LIVE THERE thing…


















And yes, that most recent poll does have
Kay Hagan up by 3 points.

Norm Coleman (“NORM!”) is only attending the convention because he lives in Minnesota. It’s not looking so good for him, either, as Al Franken has caught up and surpassed. OK, it's only 1 point, at 41/40, but he was down double digits recently.

Because Roger Wicker is the interim Senator in Mississippi, he gets a pass on not going to the convention, because he actually SHOULD be home. There is no room for politics when there is the potential for a natural disaster. However, just to keep our count up to date and accurate, the final list of Republican Senators NOT from disaster areas skipping their own convention, in addition to those mentioned above, include: Pat Roberts, Susan Collins, Chuck Hagel, Wayne Allard, Ted Stevens (I’m not sure he’s legally allowed to go, although he is out on bail) and Larry Craig (who, I’m sure, will be missed at the men’s room in the airport, rumour has it he pays well.)

This is Wrong, Two

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Matt wrote 3 hours ago how wrong it would be to deliver an acceptance speech from a zone of devastation.

Well, now it's a few hours later, and the John and Sarah Show is off to disrupt the evacuation.

Likely GOP presidential nominee John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, are traveling to Mississippi on Sunday to check on people getting prepared for Hurricane Gustav.
If you've even sat in traffic while a motorcade tied up traffic for HOURS, you'll immediately see how wrong this is.

While Mississippi is not evacuating, they are still in the danger zone, and the last thing they need is a pair of pandering lightweights disrupting the necessary job of disaster preparedness.

Over in New Orleans, they are preparing for Gustav. While the storm weakened slightly over Cuba, it is expected to intensify. Ray Nagin:

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin called Gustav "the mother of all storms," saying its destruction could outstrip that from Katrina, which flooded much of his city.

"You need to be scared," Nagin said of the Category 4 hurricane tearing along Cuba's western coast. "You need to be concerned, and you need to get your butts moving out of New Orleans right now. This is the storm of the century."

Presidential Forecast - 8/30 - a little bounce

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Obama leads 291-247, back to where we were on 8/20. Looking at the tracking polls, we don't know if the convention bounce peaked with yesterday's releases, which actually had no polling done after Obama's speech. The news cycles were interesting. From a newspaper and morning new show cycle, Obama's speech and the Palin announcement happened on separate news cycles. But from a polling point of view, there was no evening polling cycle that happened after Obama's speech but before the Palin announcement. So any bounce from Obama's speech may be blunted because the main news story on Friday was Palin.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 64 EVs. Note: AZ is no longer unanimous McCain-Strong (Elec-Vote and Elec-Proj have it at ML), but has not been placed on the chart at this time.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVsFHQEV.
com
Elect. Proj.RCP538
.com
Open LeftNBCCNNRM.…
Date

8/27.8/30.8/29.8/29.8/30.8/28.8/6.8/27.8/22.
Obama-Strong (O)

165134172183243183190153193
Obama-Lean (OL)

5712671452177277371
Tossup (T)

162102110125477213212327
McCain-Lean (ML)

608949434544536464
McCain-Strong (M)

9487136142182162136125183
Obama Total

222260243228264260217226264
McCain Total

154176185185227206189189247
Obama Est.

304304294290290289288286276

Texas
34MLMLMMMMMMM
Florida
27TTTTMLMLTTML
Pennsylvania
21TOLOLOLOOLTOLOL
Ohio
20TTTTTTTTML
Michigan
17TOLOLTOLOLTTOL
Georgia
15MLMLMMLMMMLMLM
New Jersey
15OLOLOOOOOOLO
N. Carolina
15TTTTMLTMLMLM
Virginia
13TTTTTTTTT
Indiana
11TMLMLMLMMLMLMLM
Missouri
11TMLMLMLMMTTML
Washington
11OOOLOOOOOLO
Minnesota
10OLOLTTOOLOLTO
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLOLOOLOLOLOL
Colorado
9TTTTTTTTT
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMMLM
S. Carolina
8MLMMMMMMMM
Iowa
7OLOLTOLOOLOLTOL
Oregon
7OLOLOLOLOOLOOLOL
Arkansas
6MMMLMMMMMLM
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLOLTOOLTOLOL
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMMMMMLM
Maine
4OOOOOOOOLO
NH
4TTTTOLTTTOL
Alaska
3TMLMLMMTMLMM
Delaware
3OLOLOOOOOOO
Montana
3TTMLMLMLTMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TTMMLMMLMLMML
S. Dakota
3MLTMMMMLMLMM


FHQEV.
com
Elect. Proj.RCP538
.com
Open LeftNBCCNNRM.…






























































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Maps and 3-category states will return in the future.

This is wrong

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McCain was scheduled to deliver his acceptance speech Thursday but now may do so from the devastation zone if the storm hits the U.S. coast with the ferocity feared by forecasters. - Politico
If he wants to do a photo-op tomorrow in Mississippi, fine. Maybe he can go visit Trent Lott's house. But to give his acceptance speech from an area hit by the storm? Surely his advisers are smarter than this. (But then they let him pick Palin). Not to mention how inappropriate it would be. It's just wrong.

Saturday, August 30, 2008

And so it begins...

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I am so psyched. (Yes it doesn't take much). We have our first news on 2012 site selection, and we've got two cities expressing interest! First up, Dallas:

As she walked the Pepsi Center grounds in the midst of the Democratic National Convention, Dallas Mayor Pro Tem Elba Garcia appeared convinced: Dallas should host this event in 2012.

"We'd be a perfect location," Dr. Garcia said. "Dallas has the capabilities to do the logistics, and we have the desire. We most definitely should go after a convention."

She's not alone.

Mayor Tom Leppert, for one, says he's also interested in pursuing a national convention four years from now, be it the Republican or Democratic version.

The city was home to the 1984 Republican National Convention. Dallas made the finalist lists of both parties for their 2008 conventions, but the city did not submit formal bids.
...

The Dallas Cowboys' stadium in Arlington also will be open, giving convention organizers the option to conduct a large-scale event, similar to Barack Obama's nomination acceptance speech at Invesco Field at Mile High, in a massive, modern facility.

Of course, Dallas is also home to the Cotton Bowl in Fair Park. Recent renovations have pushed its seating capacity to beyond 90,000. - Dallas Morning News
First, kudos to DMN reporter Dave Levinthal, who also covered Dallas' aborted attempts for the 2008 conventions.

Dallas was never really enthusiastic about a 2008 bid, and ultimately said they weren't ready. There's also this matter of the three-week-long national Mary Kay seminar held every summer at the Dallas Convention Center, that seemed to be an issue for the 2008 bid.

Second, Indianapolis. Note that this article is from November, 2007:
Add the decision on whether to go after the 2012 GOP National Convention to the list of things the new administration of mayor-elect Greg Ballard will have to tackle. Indiana Republican Party Chairman Murray Clark said once the chaotic schedule of transition has eased a bit, he hopes to sit down with Ballard to talk about the convention.

"Without his blessing, I'm not interested. We wouldn't go for it," Clark said.

Indianapolis tried to lure the 2000 convention, but lost out to Philadelphia. It could cost up to $250,000 to put together a bid, but the payoff is an enormous event that brings 50,000 attendees.

From Denver to St. Paul

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A look back, and a look forward.

First, from Denver:

In the beginning, they didn't even know whether they could land the Democratic National Convention. And toward the end, they didn't know whether they'd be able to raise all the money, or keep traffic moving, or maintain the peace among swarms of protesters promising to make their voices heard.

So Friday morning, in the glow of a convention gone mostly right, the men and women who brought it to Denver and worked to make it happen wore self-satisfied grins on faces that, just days before, had been etched with stress.
...
They could laugh about it Friday morning, gathered in Denver's performing arts center to assess the convention the morning after it ended with Barack Obama's historic acceptance speech at Invesco Field at Mile High.

But pulling it off was a long, difficult job that began 21/2 years ago when Elbra Wedgeworth, a member of the Denver City Council, began asking why the DNC couldn't be brought to her hometown.
...
Friday, it was all giddiness. The streets had been reopened. The weather had been perfect the night before. Downtown had seen an energy not common in these parts.

"Words really can't express how I feel right now," Wedgeworth said.
We wrote many posts on labor issues, protests, and money. The labor issues vanished, the protests were relatively minor, and while money was a big concern, it was all eventually raised.

St. Paul, weather permitting, has a tough act to follow:
In politics, there is a truism that you should be careful who and what you follow on stage, a maxim that is about to land on the Twin Cites with significant force in the wake of the much ballyhooed Democratic convention in Denver.
...
The Democratic convention in Denver was a bit of a head turner for even seasoned observers. There was a steady buildup all week to the huge gathering at Invesco Field, and then an explosion of rhetoric, fireworks and galas after Mr. Obama’s speech on Thursday night. The scale of the convention, along with the thin air, left more than a few gasping for air.

The politically interested will now switch from one city to another — two really, since both Minneapolis and St. Paul will play a role — trading Democrats for Republicans, mountains for lakes, and cow town pride for Minnesota Nice.

GOP: All convention options being discussed

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The GOP is considering a number of options for their convention beyond just a postponement:

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis plans to meet with Republican officials in charge of the party's convention planning in Minneapolis-St. Paul Sunday to review the latest news on Hurricane Gustav and what their options might be — then consulting with the presumptive Republican nominee to determine what changes may need to be made.

"I wouldn't call it a nightmare, but it is a very perplexing challenge," said a GOP official planning the event.

A senior McCain source tells CNN they are considering turning the convention into a service event — a massive telethon to raise money for the Red Cross and other agencies to help with the hurricane.
...
The storm has already forced last-minute changes in the convention's announced schedule: If the convention — originally scheduled to start Monday — commences by Tuesday, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney's speech will likely move to that night from Wednesday. Other changes are being contemplated this afternoon.

The hardest decisions — like whether to cancel a day or two of the four-day gathering, or to or condense days — will be made at the last second, say GOP officials. But the logistics of those decisions are already being discussed. - CNN
Update from First Read:
For the purposes of getting McCain's name and Palin's name on the ballot, the convention must take place this week; lots of ballot deadlines hit very soon.

McCain considering postponing convention

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With Gustav up to 150 mph, the GOP has some tough choices ahead of them:

John McCain said the Republican National Convention may be postponed as federal officials said Hurricane Gustav was gathering to a devastating Category 5 as it headed toward star-crossed New Orleans.

“It just wouldn't be appropriate to have a festive occasion while a near-tragedy or a terrible challenge is presented in the form of a natural disaster,” McCain told Chris Wallace of “Fox News Sunday,” in an interview taped for tomorrow. “So we're monitoring it from day to day and I'm saying a few prayers, too.”
...
Officials at the convention, which is to open Monday in St. Paul, Minn., tell Politico they are figuring out how to handle the formal business of nominating McCain even if some delegations are not able to attend. - Politico
And from CQ:
The massive security arrangements, delegate and guest hotel accommodations and other convention-related logistics would make it extraordinarily difficult for the GOP to consider delaying and extending the convention past its scheduled completion on Thursday.
We would urge all our readers in the affected areas to take appropriate action, and hope that this thing somehow weakens.

A new poll style?

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Dear DCW Readers:

I want to test out a new poll provider. The benefit here is that people can enter their own answers. The question is -- I'm not exactly sure where those answers go.

So, if you'd be so kind -- please take the poll so I can try out the provider.

I think you'll see the topic is timely....

THANKS!

Welcome to MSP!

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For those of you arriving in the Twin Cities this weekend for the Republican National Convention we would like to welcome you. You have to remember that Minneapolis and Saint Paul are two distinct cities and that people from Saint Paul will take offense to you calling their city Minneapolis.

Both cities have fantastic Democratic Mayors. RT Rybak is Minneapolis' mayor and Chris Coleman is Saint Paul's.

I lived in Minneapolis for 8 years before moving to Denver 2 years ago. If I still lived there I would have missed the convention in Denver and been on the protest lines in Saint Paul.

You will arrive in the beautiful Minneapolis/Saint Paul International Airport (MSP). The airport is located just south of both cities and is much closer to everything than Denver's airport.

If you live in Minneapolis, chances are a plane is flying directly over your house right now.

You may want to take a brief stop in the bathroom on the left if you have time. Wide stances and toe-tapping are not suggested while you're there.



Things I can suggest seeing while in the Twin Cities are the Chain of Lakes (Lake Harriet, Lake Calhoun and Lake of the Isles). If you're a Mary Tyler Moore fan, the house at the opening of the show is on Lake of the Isles. While in he area check out Uptown and a great restaurant called Chino Latino. Just north from uptown on the way to downtown Minneapolis is the Walker Arts Center and Sculpture Garden.



In downtown Minneapolis you can see the Target Center, where Ron Paul and his supporters will probably outnumber McCain supporters in Saint Paul.

Another thing you may notice is the walkways connecting all of the buildings. It gets a little chilly during the winter and these allow you to stay inside as much as possible.

Minneapolis is a beautiful city... take time to walk around. I could go on and on about all the great places to see.


Saint Paul is the capital of the great state of Minnesota and while often thought of as Minneapolis' smaller sister, it's really come a long way to becoming a destination by itself.

Check out the Science Museum across from the Xcel Energy Center, the Cathedral of Saint Paul and the State Capital.

The X (as the locals call it) is the best arena in the world. There's no better place to watch a hockey game or see a concert. It's a shame the Republicans have to slime it up.

Almost forgot... they have a pretty big mall there to. You can get to it on the Light Rail from Downtown Minneapolis. It's worth checking out once. I think I remember hearing that the population of the Mall of America at times makes it the 3rd or 4th biggest city in Minnesota.

Have fun! And Republicans... please clean up when you're done. Thanks.

Hurricane Watch

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Already up to 125 mph, Cat 3. Landfall Monday Night/Tuesday morning MS, LA to upper TX coast. Expected to make landfall as a major hurricane. I have no clue what the GOP is going to do.



Latest update from NOAA:

THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.
Up to a Category 4... not good.


McCain in an interview to be aired
on Fox tomorrow:
“It wouldn’t be appropriate to
have a festive occasion while a
near tragedy or a terrible
challenge is presented in the
form of a natural disaster.”
Funny... didn't seem to bother you
three years ago.

Reflections on the Choice of Sarah Palin

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There has been a lot of discussion here over the last day on the choice of Sarah Palin, running the entire gamut from the idea of "Thank you for the early Christmas present, now we can rest on our laurels, the election is won" to "This is a disaster, we've just lost the election".

Neither is true, and neither would matter if it were.

Three areas:

1. What we don't know
2. What to look for
3. Why it doesn't matter

1. What we don't know

Yesterday was cheesecake. OH BOY A BEAUTY QUEEN! Aside from the basic true-conservative, lifetime NRA, moose chomping, anti-abortion EVEN IN THE CASES OF RAPE AND INCEST, small town mayor, under investigation, mother of five, WE KNOW NOTHING.

More importantly, aside from "us" - the low-information voters know less. CNN, which should know, forgets to mention the bi-partisan investigation first reported on here at DCW a month ago. In fact they put up the investigation as "Breaking News" in the 10 pm hour last night.

It's not just that she hasn't been completely publicly vetted, I'm not convinced she's been privately vetted by the McCain campaign, as McCain only met her once before the announcement yesterday, and he called her about a week ago to let her know she was under consideration.

We not only don't know her biography, we also do not know all her positions, nor her personality. And there are rumours, which I can't yet get actual confirmation on from someone who has seen it, that she has a temper to rival McCain's. (But, yes, when I'm sure, I'll have sources.)

So before we run to either end of the gift-disaster spectrum, let's wait and see.

2. What to look for:

This week will be Sarah Palin's first national exposure. She is going to make a speech, introducing herself to the world. What will she say, and how will she say it? Likely, someone will write that speech for her, and while I'm big on writing one own's speeches and only (if at all) using speech writers to polish, as I mentioned here, she likely doesn't have time to get the writing accomplished.

Obama's speech "worked" because his speech was HIM: his words, his thoughts, his plans, his promises, his soul. One can never have that if one is a puppet.

And "puppet" is what needs to be determined this week at the Republican Convention. Forgetting about Dick Cheney, and to a certain extent, Al Gore, Vice Presidents have no assigned duties except to be President of the Senate, UNLESS THOSE DUTIES ARE ASSIGNED BY THE PRESIDENT. Everyone talks about the age differential, and can she lead if he dies, but people should also think about what she would do for any period that he was alive.

If is possible that McCain picked a woman to use exclusively as window dressing? By law, he can't pay her less, but he can restrict her duties to Rose Garden photos, a world tour with no policy portfolio, etc. She could concievably be the political equivalent of a trophy wife.

Therefore, it will be interesting to see if her speech is a parrot of the McCain positions, a parrot of the GOP platform (yes, there is divergence between the two), a biographical speech, or a speech laying out what she would do in the position of Vice President.

If her known positions are her passions, then maybe she'll say that, if elected, she will work for the repeal of Roe v Wade and the outlawing of all abortions in all cases. Or maybe she'll say that she'll concentrate on energy policy, albeit the Palin Position of "energy is oil, oil is energy, and there is nothing else."

Also look for her tone and demeanor. Next, and I HATE HATE HATE saying this: look at her clothes. While I tend to be oblivious to such things, most people, especially low-information voters, are not.

Finally, look at how she is treated by the Republicans. McCain had women choices: Kay Bailey Hutchison, Liddy Dole, Olympia Snowe, Christy Todd Whitman, Susan Collins, Jodi Rell, Linda Lingell, Jane Hull -- all Republican Senators or Governors with experience and portfolio. You might not know all of them, but they have stature. Will Sarah Palin be treated as a member of the club, or as a neophyte?

3. Why it doesn't matter

Yesterday, there was an email that went around the group of activists working locally on the campaign. The positions echoed what was said here in the comment threads from ecstasy to despair. The one that made me contribute was from a local leader who expressed abject terror about running against a woman. And I stand by what I sent out to them:

AH FEAR!!!

Here's the thing -- there is a big difference between what we feel, and what we do.

Sarah Palin might be a helpful pick for McCain, might not be. When the anti-choice people get wind of the fact that she had a Down's Syndrome baby, by choice, after knowing, they'll cheer. But how will they feel when they find out that since Veep is a 24/7/365 job, she'll be turning that baby (who will turn 1 next April) over to nannies and babysittters?

Whatever -- it DOESN'T MATTER TO US. We have a plan. A plan that involves canvassing, phone banking, voter registration, visibility, and winning one voter at a time. So long as we follow our plan, we will prevail. Perhaps our rhetoric must change, perhaps we'll need to reach out a little harder to a few more people -- but we do what we do, and we do it as well as we can, and we do it with a smile on our faces, NOT with fear in our hearts.

My grandfather always said -- to succeed at anything, all you need to do is eat a little less, sleep a little less, work a little more.

So we do what we do. Fear is paralyzing -- working from a place of joy and hope and certainty is empowering.
So skip the over-confidence, skip the despair, and just get to work. Elections are won one voter at a time. Go get yours today.

5 worst DNC Invesco Mistakes

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From a blogger on the Denver Post:

5. They did not use the stadium’s sound system; all sound came from speakers placed on the floor of the stadium. They weren’t loud enough, and this made it hard to hear the speakers over all the cheering.

4. The fireworks. They came without warning and startled a lot of people sitting in the top rows of level 5 (like me). They also filled the stadium with smoke and released loads of carbon into the atmosphere.

3. Stevie Wonder gave a lame performance. And Joe Biden’s speech was dull.

2. The stadium did not fill up. There were still plenty of seats left in level 5. You can see them in this picture I took in the middle of Obama’s speech:

Empty Seats During Obama's Acceptance Speech

1. They did not serve beer during the event. I think this was an affront to the working men and women (many of whom are union members) who make and transport the beer.

Oreo here with his own #1: This guy is a whiner that would find a reason to complain if somebody gave him a million dollars. While the fireworks were a bit startling (Michelle Obama jumped) what are they supposed to do? Yell "OK EVERYBODY!!! HERE COMES THE FIREWORKS?" Idiot.

Hurricane Watch

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Landfall Monday Night/Tuesday morning SE LA to middle TX coast. Expected to make landfall as a major hurricane.

Friday, August 29, 2008

Presidential Forecast - 8/24 - Pre-Convention Snapshot

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This is just a quick snapshot of the race on the Saturday before the convention, the day Biden was announced as the VP nominee. It only incorporates changes from FHQ, Elec-Vote, Rasmussen and OpenLeft. (If anybody kept a snapshot of Elec Proj, RCP, or 538 for 8/24, please email or leave in the comments, and we will update).

Obama leads 289-249, a loss of 2 EVs from our last forecast. With both state and national polls tightening, this was not unexpected. The main driver of the change was Rasmussen, which moved 6 states in McCain's direction.

Please also check out our Senate Forecast and House Forecast.

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, MA, MD, RI, VT - 119 EVs. Note: NY is no longer unanimous Obama-Strong (Elec-Vote has it at OL), but has not been placed on the chart at this time. (All numbers, however, are correct).
Solid McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, KY, MS, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY - 74 EVs.

The sources are sorted by each projection's estimate of Obama's Electoral Votes (Algorithm at bottom). The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW Presidential Forecast
State
EVsFHQElect. Proj.RCPEV.
com
NBCOpen LeftCNNRM538
.com
.…
Date

8/24.8/20.8/20.8/24.8/6.8/22.7/24.8/22.8/20.
Obama-Strong (O)

165183183134190183153193200
Obama-Lean (OL)

5777451262777687143
Tossup (T)

16289147102132571282730
McCain-Lean (ML)

605024455370646468
McCain-Strong (M)

94139139131136151125183197
Obama Total

222260228260217260221264243
McCain Total

154189163176189221189247265
Obama Est.

304299297295288287284276272

Texas
34MLMMMMMMMM
Florida
27TTTTTMLTMLML
Pennsylvania
21TOLOLOLTOLOLOLOL
Ohio
20TTTTTTTMLML
Michigan
17TOLTOLTOLTOLT
Georgia
15MLMLMLMLMLMMLMM
New Jersey
15OLOOOLOOOLOO
N. Carolina
15TMLTTMLMLMLMM
Virginia
13TTTTTTTTML
Indiana
11TMTMLMLMLMLMM
Missouri
11TTTMLTMLTMLM
Washington
11OOOOOOOLOO
Minnesota
10OLOLTOLOLOLTOOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO
Colorado
9TTTTTTTTT
Louisiana
9MMMMMMMLMM
S. Carolina
8MLMMMMMMMM
Iowa
7OLOLOLOLOLOLTOLOL
Oregon
7OLOLOLOLOOLOLOLO
Arkansas
6MMLMMMMMLMM
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTML
New Mexico
5OLOLTOLTOLTOLOL
W. Virginia
5MMLMMLMMMLMM
Maine
4OOOOOOOLOO
NH
4TTTTTTTOLT
Alaska
3TMLMLMLMLTMMM
Delaware
3OLOOOLOOOOO
Montana
3TMLMLTMLTMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TMMLTMLMLMMLM
S. Dakota
3MLMLMTMLMLMMM


FHQElect. Proj.RCPEV.
com
NBCOpen LeftCNNRM538
.com
.…





























































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong (O or M), Lean to Lean (OL or ML), Tossup to Tossup (T)
CNN - Safe mapped to Strong, Leaning to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection - Solid and Strong mapped to Strong, Moderate to Lean, Weak to Tossup
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com - Strong mapped to Strong, Weak to Lean, Barely and Tossup to Tossup
FHQ -
FrontLoading HQ - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup (Dem and Rep) to Tossup
NBC - Base mapped to strong,
Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
OpenLeft - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RM - Rasmussen - Safe and Likely mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup
RCP - RealClearPolitics - Solid mapped to Strong, Lean to Lean, Tossup to Tossup

Convention gets record audience

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Barack Obama accepted the Democratic nomination for president on Thursday as an estimated 38 million viewers watched on television, setting a new record for convention viewership, according to Nielsen Media Research.
Mr. Obama’s speech — a historic one given his status as the first African American nominee of a major political party — reached significantly more viewers than the comparable addresses in 2004. Coverage of John Kerry’s acceptance speech in 2004 had 24.4 million viewers; coverage of George W. Bush’s convention speech that same year drew 27.5 million.

The audience estimate of 38.3 million means that Mr. Obama’s speech reached more viewers than the Olympics opening ceremony in Beijing, the final “American Idol” or the Academy Awards this year, the Associated Press notes.

Furthermore, the four-night Democratic convention ranks as the most-watched convention of either party, Democratic or Republican, since Nielsen began measuring conventions in 1960.

The four nights of “common coverage” by networks — 10 to 11 p.m. Monday through Thursday — were viewed by an average of 22.4 million households, Nielsen said Friday. Previously, the highest-rated Democratic convention occurred in 1980 with 20.5 million households watching, and the highest-rated Republican convention occurred in 1976 with 21.9 million households watching. - NY Times

Gustav keeping delegates in Denver

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I was wishing for more fun time in Denver and I got it!

After a trip downtown checking things out for the last time today, I got a message from American Airlines that our flight was canceled and scheduled for tomorrow (Saturday). It appears from other delegates that they are stuck in Denver as well.

One more day of fun in Denver! Heading back downtown tonight for dinner and drinks. Looking for deals on convention trinkets. If you have spotted a good place to get any, drop me a note at jeffstrater at gmail.com

I would just note

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that while we all agree that the election of McCain/Palin would be a disaster for this country, it should not be lost on us that whatever happens in November, for the first time in the history of this country, we will not have two white men as President and Vice President. This is a good thing.

What does a Vice President do?

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In general, when someone applies for a job, they know what it is. If someone offers you a job, they will hopefully be able to explain to you what your duties are, if you didn't know already.

I bring this up because last month Sarah Palin said:

"As for that VP talk all the time, I’ll tell you, I still can’t answer that question until somebody answers for me what is it exactly that the VP does every day?"
Some people think the Democrats should be worried about Palin as a pick. But me, I have to wonder: if John McCain still can't count houses, and Sarah Palin doesn't know what she'll do with her days if she wins, how worried should we be?

Then again, maybe Andy Borowitz has it right:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz) used the announcement of his vice-presidential pick, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, to blast the experience of his Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill), arguing that Sen. Obama has never been the mayor of a 5,000-person town.

"The Presidency of the United States of America is the toughest job on the planet," Sen. McCain said. "And my friends, the best testing ground for that job is being the mayor of a 5,000-person town in Alaska."

Sen. McCain unleashed a savage attack on Sen. Obama, claiming that his Democratic opponent would be "at a loss" when faced with the challenges of running a 5000-person municipality in Alaska.

"Let's say a constituent calls you and says that a caribou has wandered onto his front lawn," he said. "My friends, Barack Obama wouldn't know what to do."

He used the hypothetical situation to draw a sharp contrast with his vice-presidential choice: "Sarah Palin would take out her gun and shoot the caribou."

Mr. McCain said that an understanding of foreign affairs, Congress, and other issues that a president has to deal with is "overrated," adding, "That's what ‘Presidency for Dummies' is for."

While saying that her "vast experience" was the main reason he selected Gov. Palin, Sen. McCain said that she also had the other three qualifications he was looking for in a vice president: "She is pro-life, pro-drilling, and willing to housesit."

Stevens and Palin

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Well, they had to show up somewhere together.

This is Ted Stevens endorsing Palin and Parnell. And at the end, when it says "new energy for Alaska" think -- drilling in ANWAR.

Well, we poll on everything else...

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From the floor

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Here is what it is like to be a delegate on the floor of Invesco last night:

video


Those of you at home saw the speech better than I did. Surrounded by fellow delegates packed in like sardines, some of whom were standing on the chairs, with my view blocked by their signs. And having been dropped off by our bus at the Pepsi Center, and having to hike to Invesco and find our way there with no signage. And having to circle Invesco twice to find our buses, which were not in numerical order with the others.


I wouldn't have missed it for anything. I think it will remain one of the defining moments in my political life forever.

So now can we not hear, ever again, that "Hope" and "Change" are vacuous words, with no content except what the listener chooses to impart to them?


This was a clarion call for progressive values, and thence to progressive policies.


Can we not hear, ever again, that because Obama wants to reach out to Republicans to accomplish things, that he is being naive, or compromising?


Now, let's get to work. Just because Pat Buchanan is praising this speech, does not mean this is not coming. It's already here. There will be more money available to pay for slime, outright lies, and innuendo than ever before in our political history.


I hate to step on the celebration with a heavy dose of reality, but that is where my heart is this morning, as I prepare to depart Denver and go out into the mountains for two days of backpacking and reflection. Now the powers that want everything exactly the same know what they are up against, if they didn't before. They are going to fight like devils to keep it from happening.


We have to work harder than ever before. Don't believe any poll that shows us ahead. Ignore them.


Work. Work. Work. Make what we heard last night a reality.


You know, I think perhaps I'm ... FIRED UP! ...and READY TO GO!!

Palin named as GOP VP

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John McCain has picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his VP.

I guarantee you the following will be the first thing the Obama campaign releases in response:



From Ben Smith at Politico:

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin -- occasionally mentioned as a McCain vice presidential prospect -- has put out a press release praising Obama's energy plan.

Alaska energy politics seem to trump national politics here, though it's also interesting to see a red(dish) state Republican so willing to associate herself with the Democratic nominee.

“I am pleased to see Senator Obama acknowledge the huge potential Alaska’s natural gas reserves represent in terms of clean energy and sound jobs,” Palin says in the release. “The steps taken by the Alaska State Legislature this past week demonstrate that we are ready, willing and able to supply the energy our nation needs.”

More:

Governor Palin also acknowledged the Senator’s proposal to offer $1,000 rebates to those struggling with the high cost of energy.

“We in Alaska feel that crunch and are taking steps to address it right here at home,” Governor Palin said. “This is a tool that must be on the table to buy us time until our long-term energy plans can be put into place. We have already enjoyed the support of Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, and it is gratifying to see Senator Obama get on board.”

Hard to know what to make of the Stevens shout-out, but Alaska politics are another country.

Palin did question Obama's proposal to tax oil company profits. - Politico

No surprise here. The Alaska state website is down right now. The press release that Ben links to may not be there when it comes back up.

Ambinder has a summary of Palin

44 years old. .... Five children. .... Dynamic personality. .... Elected in 2006 as a reformer. Opposed Don Young's re-election bid. ..... Anti-same sex marriage but supports other gay rights. .... She's a lifelong member of the National Rifle Association. .... Pro life.. Signed into law a very aggressive ethics reform package. ...... Good symbolism: she sold the former governor's state jet right after entering office. She's at the forefront of the oil drilling debate...very popular among all Alaskans. ......She faces a state probe into whether she tried to get a former brother in law fired from his law enforcement job.. .... Born in Idaho...grew up in Alaska... It would be hard for Sen. Joe Biden to bully her in a debate. ....

Obama campaign just released the following:
"Today, John McCain put the former mayor of a town of 9,000 with zero foreign policy experience a heartbeat away from the presidency. Governor Palin shares John McCain's commitment to overturning Roe v. Wade, the agenda of Big Oil and continuing George Bush's failed economic policies -- that's not the change we need, it's just more of the same," said Bill Burton, Obama Campaign Spokesman.


CNN is streaming the VP announcement now.

Waiting for McCain, Waiting for Gustav

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While the McCain veep watch is nowhere near as fun as the Obama veep watch, the latest is that Romney is in Boston, Pawlenty is in St. Paul, and Sarah Palin is home in Alaska. Funny thing, no one seems to be tracking McCain. He's supposed to be on his way to Dayton, but I haven't heard anything.

While waiting for the announcement, we're also all watching Gustav. The path has not changed appreciably since the last time Matt posted the map. Haley Barbour, co-chair of the RNC Convention Committee has returned to Mississippi, where he's governor. Bobby Jindal is back in Lousisana where he is governor. And while there is fun in citing all the Republican candidates who have begged off the GOP convention next week for being "too busy", it's right and proper that leaders in potential devastation zones go home to prepare.

So what of John McCain? Halperin thinks he ought to skip Dayton, and head to New Orleans to deal with Gustav. He has art....

More Fun with John and Cindy

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While lots of people are focusing on who McCain will pick as veep today, Kathleen Portalski probably doesn't care that much. She says:

"I'm voting for Obama. I think his proposals to improve the country are more positive and I'm not a big war believer."
Her son Nathan says:
"I wouldn't vote for John McCain if he was a Democrat. I would not vote at all before I'd vote for him."
Why do we care what Kathleen Poralski says? Because her maiden name is Hensley. Same as Carol Hensley McCain, and yes, they're half sisters.

No Downtime

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Last night, Barack Obama made a speech that changed history forever. He was the first African-American to accept the nomination of a major party to lead our country. I've already read all the morning papers (I often disagree with their slant, but they are the ones we use to explain what really happened) and the pundits are already talking about the implications of the speech on the General Election.

I know from reading yesterday's DCW poll results that about 65% of you watched from home. I watched from an event. I had watched the rest of the convention from home, happily ensconced on my sofa with my TV, my laptop, and my dog. From the moment the gavel came down on the first day, it was close to perfection the vast majority of the time.

Last night, we had a catering hall, an incredible spread of food, a cash bar, and a huge group of cheering people. It was so very different in tone. And a moment about the food - if you've ever worked campaigns, you know you always need more money. So in an effort to keep money for the things you really need (cell phones, postage, printing costs, etc.) you ask people to bring "a snack to share" to events. Often, over the years, what you end up with is a veggie tray and 50 bags of potato chips. It is a testament to the enthusiasm of the volunteers (and yes, one of the reasons we hold events is not only to share them, but to encourage people to donate time) that last night, instead, it looked like the event had actually been catered. Fancy cheeses and dips, hot foods, and pastries. Despite the fact that the bartender had been hired, when we went to tip him, he asked that the $50 stay with the campaign. Even the small things about this campaign are transformational.

When Invesco roared, so did we: up on our feet, clapping and cheering. And after, we all said "and now it begins": the real work, the campaign, the race to the finish.

For my part, I'm running two voter registration drives this weekend. Others of my group are running canvasses and phone banks. I hope that you, too, will use this weekend to get out, take your enthusiam, and help solidify the people we need to put Obama over the top November 4th.

We are now also on to the Republican conventions: yup, two of them. I have an interview scheduled with a Ron Paul person tomorrow, to help us all understand what they are standing up for, what made them splinter from the Republican Party, and what to watch for at the Rally for the Republic. For while we're running OUR race, understanding the other side provides powerful knowledge.

Today, McCain will announce his veep choice. Ambinder says one source told him Romeny is in Dayton, another source said it wasn't true. Pawlenty is still home, but it's a quick hop from MSP to Dayton. I'm really hoping it's Lieberman, but I'm an optimist. A surprise pick of a woman? I heard Kay Baily Hutchison on MSNBC say she doesn't want it. Plus there is that 1996 indictment. Sarah Palin? Under investigation. Carly Fiorino? The Compaq-HP SEC problem. Meg Whitford? e-bay. I know that everyone says that Condi Rice isn't under consideration, but on a personal note, to every racist that I have canvassed, polled, and chatted with this year I sooooo want them to have to have that sort of choice.

No matter who McCain picks, it's anti-climactic. Because last night the world changed forever, and in certain ways McCain is running the past against the future. I'll give John one thing, the ad he ran yesterday was brilliant.



The first remarkable thing the McCain campaign has done. It's unlikely they will be able to stay on that plane.

So as we move forwards, I ask you this. You, dear reader, who hangs on the polls, and has opinions to share, I ask you to please stand up. What Senator Obama said last night is true: this isn't about him, it's about us. Our willingness to stand up for change, to work for it, to own it, to participate in it.

At least once a day, I say "Elections are won one voter at a time." And the rest of the paragraph is "Give me one hour a week from now to November, and you'll get me two voters. And if they give an hour a week....." you know the rest.

For while the nomination is historic, and the campaign is historic, we can only imagine what it would mean to truly implement the recovery of our country. Sure, you're tired, you're busy, you have other things to do. Do this anyway. The outcome of the election, and the fate of the world, depends on what we each do as individuals.

The Speech

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Pace's DNC Post 8/28/08

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We arrived back in Anchorage safe and sound and in time to watch nearly 6 hours on CSPAN on the last day of the convention. I was thrilled to see some of our Alaskan delegation and was envious of their experience on this historic day. Obama's acceptance speech was positive, informative, inspiring, and electrifying. It has been a long time since I have been so moved by a Presidential candidate.

He spoke about issues that are near and dear to not only my heart but to those around me. These issues include but are by no means limited to: 1) Health t (I believe that in this country, everyone regardless of income or position should be entitled to affordable health care of the highest quality), 2) Education (Better schools means better preparation for our people in this globalized economy) (also I love the idea of the exchange of college education for public service - let's make college available for everyone!), 3) Civil rights for all citizens regardless of sexual orientation (people are people and deserve to be treated fairly and with dignity and respect), and 4) Increased funding to support our troops with adequate health care, equipment, and improved services (while we may disagree with the war I find that it is deplorable to learn that many of our troops are falling in between the cracks when it comes to providing their basic needs, I find that to be tragic and feel that Obama will make sure that our military is going to be an excellent Commander-in-Chief and will make sure that our troops are getting not only what they need but also what they deserve). and 5) Energy (I think Obama is right on the mark when he talks about the need for a shift in our energy reliance on foreign countries for our energy needs. We need to develop alternative energy sources such as geothermal, wind, solar, biofuels etc., not spend Gazillions (technical term there) drilling for oil (especially off shore) when we could spend a fraction of that amount and build new industries that will create millions of Green Collar jobs). There were many other issues but those were the ones that leapt out to me.

I have attached a few photos of the last few days from the Convention experience. I thoroughly enjoyed myself, it was the chance of a lifetime and I am so honored that I was chosen. It was AWESOME!

All my best!

PS -

Obama Tribute Video

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Directed by Davis Guggenheim, who made Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth.

One review

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Among the many glowing reviews, here's the end of one worth repeating, from Andrew Sullivan:

I've said it before - months and months ago. I should say it again tonight. This is a remarkable man at a vital moment. America would be crazy to throw this opportunity away. America must not throw this opportunity away.

And We're Not Done Yet!

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It's been an exciting week. But first, a few call-outs:

To Matt, who started this site back in 2005, with a commitment to history, process, and accuracy. As someone who read DCW for a long time before having the honour of posting here, I know I speak for thousands of people when I say that the primary process, the delegate counts, and the moment to moment knowledge of Super Delegate endorsements would have been lacking if not for Matt's vision and dedication.

To Matt and Tom for the exemplary, difficult, and time consuming work they did to keep those counts instant and accurate. Because of them, there is a public record of who committed to which candidate when, and what they said when they did so.

To Ed Espinoza, resident Super Delegate, who gave us all a glimpse from the inside of professional politics.

To the pledged delegates who took the time from a jam-packed week to post here with their thoughts, insights and photographs.

And to all of you who read and post comments here at DCW: thank you for your support, your thoughts, and your energy.

But wait - we are not done yet. There are two conventions to cover next week. There is polling data between now and the general election. Stick with us next week as we bring you news on the GOP Convention, the Rally for the Republic, and Hurricaine Gustav, as well as unveil for you our plans for the future.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

So what did you think?

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It seems like it was so short - all the primaries, all the planning, all the excitement. And now, the convention is over.

Your take?

Invesco pictures

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GOP considering delaying convention

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Republican officials said yesterday that they are considering delaying the start of the GOP convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul because of Tropical Storm Gustav, which is on track to hit the Gulf Coast, and possibly New Orleans, as a full-force hurricane early next week.

The threat is serious enough that White House officials are also debating whether President Bush should cancel his scheduled convention appearance on Monday, the first day of the convention, according to administration officials and others familiar with the discussion. - Washington Post

Get ready for confetti

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It will be shot up in the air, and then come down. Remember, no balloons.

And fireworks!

And the winner is

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City of Blinding Lights - U2

Congrats to Roehl in the comments for predicting this.

Over 84,000 in Invesco

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More than 84,000 people have jammed into Invesco Field at Mile High stadium to hear Barack Obama's historic acceptance speech, city officials say.

Nancy Kuhn of Denver's public works department says the figure is based on the number of credentials that were scanned as delegates, individuals and news media entered the football stadium where Obama was accepting the Democratic presidential nomination Thursday night.

The stadium normally holds 76,125 people, but additional seats were placed on the football field where the Denver Broncos play. - AP

Barack Obama Speech

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Remarks of Senator Barack Obama

“The American Promise”
Democratic Convention
Thursday, August 28th, 2008
Denver, Colorado

As Prepared for Delivery
Read the speech here

To Chairman Dean and my great friend Dick Durbin; and to all my fellow citizens of this great nation;

With profound gratitude and great humility, I accept your nomination for the presidency of the United States.

Let me express my thanks to the historic slate of candidates who accompanied me on this journey, and especially the one who traveled the farthest – a champion for working Americans and an inspiration to my daughters and to yours -- Hillary Rodham Clinton. To President Clinton, who last night made the case for change as only he can make it; to Ted Kennedy, who embodies the spirit of service; and to the next Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden, I thank you. I am grateful to finish this journey with one of the finest statesmen of our time, a man at ease with everyone from world leaders to the conductors on the Amtrak train he still takes home every night.

To the love of my life, our next First Lady, Michelle Obama, and to Sasha and Malia – I love you so much, and I’m so proud of all of you.

Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story – of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

It is that promise that has always set this country apart – that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

That’s why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women – students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors -- found the courage to keep it alive.

We meet at one of those defining moments – a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.

Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and even more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay, and tuition that’s beyond your reach.

These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed policies of George W. Bush.

America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.

This country is more decent than one where a woman in Ohio, on the brink of retirement, finds herself one illness away from disaster after a lifetime of hard work.

This country is more generous than one where a man in Indiana has to pack up the equipment he’s worked on for twenty years and watch it shipped off to China, and then chokes up as he explains how he felt like a failure when he went home to tell his family the news.

We are more compassionate than a government that lets veterans sleep on our streets and families slide into poverty; that sits on its hands while a major American city drowns before our eyes.

Tonight, I say to the American people, to Democrats and Republicans and Independents across this great land – enough! This moment – this election – is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say: “Eight is enough.”

Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we’ll also hear about those occasions when he’s broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

But the record’s clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time. Senator McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush has been right more than ninety percent of the time? I don’t know about you, but I’m not ready to take a ten percent chance on change.

The truth is, on issue after issue that would make a difference in your lives – on health care and education and the economy – Senator McCain has been anything but independent. He said that our economy has made “great progress” under this President. He said that the fundamentals of the economy are strong. And when one of his chief advisors – the man who wrote his economic plan – was talking about the anxiety Americans are feeling, he said that we were just suffering from a “mental recession,” and that we’ve become, and I quote, “a nation of whiners.”

A nation of whiners? Tell that to the proud auto workers at a Michigan plant who, after they found out it was closing, kept showing up every day and working as hard as ever, because they knew there were people who counted on the brakes that they made. Tell that to the military families who shoulder their burdens silently as they watch their loved ones leave for their third or fourth or fifth tour of duty. These are not whiners. They work hard and give back and keep going without complaint. These are the Americans that I know.

Now, I don’t believe that Senator McCain doesn’t care what’s going on in the lives of Americans. I just think he doesn’t know. Why else would he define middle-class as someone making under five million dollars a year? How else could he propose hundreds of billions in tax breaks for big corporations and oil companies but not one penny of tax relief to more than one hundred million Americans? How else could he offer a health care plan that would actually tax people’s benefits, or an education plan that would do nothing to help families pay for college, or a plan that would privatize Social Security and gamble your retirement?

It’s not because John McCain doesn’t care. It’s because John McCain doesn’t get it.

For over two decades, he’s subscribed to that old, discredited Republican philosophy – give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else. In Washington, they call this the Ownership Society, but what it really means is – you’re on your own. Out of work? Tough luck. No health care? The market will fix it. Born into poverty? Pull yourself up by your own bootstraps – even if you don’t have boots. You’re on your own.

Well it’s time for them to own their failure. It’s time for us to change America.

You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country.

We measure progress by how many people can find a job that pays the mortgage; whether you can put a little extra money away at the end of each month so you can someday watch your child receive her college diploma. We measure progress in the 23 million new jobs that were created when Bill Clinton was President – when the average American family saw its income go up $7,500 instead of down $2,000 like it has under George Bush.

We measure the strength of our economy not by the number of billionaires we have or the profits of the Fortune 500, but by whether someone with a good idea can take a risk and start a new business, or whether the waitress who lives on tips can take a day off to look after a sick kid without losing her job – an economy that honors the dignity of work.

The fundamentals we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great – a promise that is the only reason I am standing here tonight.

Because in the faces of those young veterans who come back from Iraq and Afghanistan, I see my grandfather, who signed up after Pearl Harbor, marched in Patton’s Army, and was rewarded by a grateful nation with the chance to go to college on the GI Bill.

In the face of that young student who sleeps just three hours before working the night shift, I think about my mom, who raised my sister and me on her own while she worked and earned her degree; who once turned to food stamps but was still able to send us to the best schools in the country with the help of student loans and scholarships.

When I listen to another worker tell me that his factory has shut down, I remember all those men and women on the South Side of Chicago who I stood by and fought for two decades ago after the local steel plant closed.

And when I hear a woman talk about the difficulties of starting her own business, I think about my grandmother, who worked her way up from the secretarial pool to middle-management, despite years of being passed over for promotions because she was a woman. She’s the one who taught me about hard work. She’s the one who put off buying a new car or a new dress for herself so that I could have a better life. She poured everything she had into me. And although she can no longer travel, I know that she’s watching tonight, and that tonight is her night as well.

I don’t know what kind of lives John McCain thinks that celebrities lead, but this has been mine. These are my heroes. Theirs are the stories that shaped me. And it is on their behalf that I intend to win this election and keep our promise alive as President of the United States.

What is that promise?

It’s a promise that says each of us has the freedom to make of our own lives what we will, but that we also have the obligation to treat each other with dignity and respect.

It’s a promise that says the market should reward drive and innovation and generate growth, but that businesses should live up to their responsibilities to create American jobs, look out for American workers, and play by the rules of the road.

Ours is a promise that says government cannot solve all our problems, but what it should do is that which we cannot do for ourselves – protect us from harm and provide every child a decent education; keep our water clean and our toys safe; invest in new schools and new roads and new science and technology.

Our government should work for us, not against us. It should help us, not hurt us. It should ensure opportunity not just for those with the most money and influence, but for every American who’s willing to work.

That’s the promise of America – the idea that we are responsible for ourselves, but that we also rise or fall as one nation; the fundamental belief that I am my brother’s keeper; I am my sister’s keeper.

That’s the promise we need to keep. That’s the change we need right now. So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President.

Change means a tax code that doesn’t reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it.

Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.

I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.

I will cut taxes – cut taxes – for 95% of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.

And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as President: in ten years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

Washington’s been talking about our oil addiction for the last thirty years, and John McCain has been there for twenty-six of them. In that time, he’s said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Senator McCain took office.

Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stop-gap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close.

As President, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I’ll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I’ll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I’ll invest 150 billion dollars over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy – wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can’t ever be outsourced.

America, now is not the time for small plans.

Now is the time to finally meet our moral obligation to provide every child a world-class education, because it will take nothing less to compete in the global economy. Michelle and I are only here tonight because we were given a chance at an education. And I will not settle for an America where some kids don’t have that chance. I’ll invest in early childhood education. I’ll recruit an army of new teachers, and pay them higher salaries and give them more support. And in exchange, I’ll ask for higher standards and more accountability. And we will keep our promise to every young American – if you commit to serving your community or your country, we will make sure you can afford a college education.

Now is the time to finally keep the promise of affordable, accessible health care for every single American. If you have health care, my plan will lower your premiums. If you don’t, you’ll be able to get the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves. And as someone who watched my mother argue with insurance companies while she lay in bed dying of cancer, I will make certain those companies stop discriminating against those who are sick and need care the most.

Now is the time to help families with paid sick days and better family leave, because nobody in America should have to choose between keeping their jobs and caring for a sick child or ailing parent.

Now is the time to change our bankruptcy laws, so that your pensions are protected ahead of CEO bonuses; and the time to protect Social Security for future generations.

And now is the time to keep the promise of equal pay for an equal day’s work, because I want my daughters to have exactly the same opportunities as your sons.

Now, many of these plans will cost money, which is why I’ve laid out how I’ll pay for every dime – by closing corporate loopholes and tax havens that don’t help America grow. But I will also go through the federal budget, line by line, eliminating programs that no longer work and making the ones we do need work better and cost less – because we cannot meet twenty-first century challenges with a twentieth century bureaucracy.

And Democrats, we must also admit that fulfilling America’s promise will require more than just money. It will require a renewed sense of responsibility from each of us to recover what John F. Kennedy called our “intellectual and moral strength.” Yes, government must lead on energy independence, but each of us must do our part to make our homes and businesses more efficient. Yes, we must provide more ladders to success for young men who fall into lives of crime and despair. But we must also admit that programs alone can’t replace parents; that government can’t turn off the television and make a child do her homework; that fathers must take more responsibility for providing the love and guidance their children need.

Individual responsibility and mutual responsibility – that’s the essence of America’s promise.

And just as we keep our keep our promise to the next generation here at home, so must we keep America’s promise abroad. If John McCain wants to have a debate about who has the temperament, and judgment, to serve as the next Commander-in-Chief, that’s a debate I’m ready to have.

For while Senator McCain was turning his sights to Iraq just days after 9/11, I stood up and opposed this war, knowing that it would distract us from the real threats we face. When John McCain said we could just “muddle through” in Afghanistan, I argued for more resources and more troops to finish the fight against the terrorists who actually attacked us on 9/11, and made clear that we must take out Osama bin Laden and his lieutenants if we have them in our sights. John McCain likes to say that he’ll follow bin Laden to the Gates of Hell – but he won’t even go to the cave where he lives.

And today, as my call for a time frame to remove our troops from Iraq has been echoed by the Iraqi government and even the Bush Administration, even after we learned that Iraq has a $79 billion surplus while we’re wallowing in deficits, John McCain stands alone in his stubborn refusal to end a misguided war.

That’s not the judgment we need. That won’t keep America safe. We need a President who can face the threats of the future, not keep grasping at the ideas of the past.

You don’t defeat a terrorist network that operates in eighty countries by occupying Iraq. You don’t protect Israel and deter Iran just by talking tough in Washington. You can’t truly stand up for Georgia when you’ve strained our oldest alliances. If John McCain wants to follow George Bush with more tough talk and bad strategy, that is his choice – but it is not the change we need.

We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don’t tell me that Democrats won’t defend this country. Don’t tell me that Democrats won’t keep us safe. The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans -- Democrats and Republicans – have built, and we are here to restore that legacy.

As Commander-in-Chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and curb Russian aggression. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing, so that America is once again that last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.

These are the policies I will pursue. And in the weeks ahead, I look forward to debating them with John McCain.

But what I will not do is suggest that the Senator takes his positions for political purposes. Because one of the things that we have to change in our politics is the idea that people cannot disagree without challenging each other’s character and patriotism.

The times are too serious, the stakes are too high for this same partisan playbook. So let us agree that patriotism has no party. I love this country, and so do you, and so does John McCain. The men and women who serve in our battlefields may be Democrats and Republicans and Independents, but they have fought together and bled together and some died together under the same proud flag. They have not served a Red America or a Blue America – they have served the United States of America.

So I’ve got news for you, John McCain. We all put our country first.

America, our work will not be easy. The challenges we face require tough choices, and Democrats as well as Republicans will need to cast off the worn-out ideas and politics of the past. For part of what has been lost these past eight years can’t just be measured by lost wages or bigger trade deficits. What has also been lost is our sense of common purpose – our sense of higher purpose. And that’s what we have to restore.

We may not agree on abortion, but surely we can agree on reducing the number of unwanted pregnancies in this country. The reality of gun ownership may be different for hunters in rural Ohio than for those plagued by gang-violence in Cleveland, but don’t tell me we can’t uphold the Second Amendment while keeping AK-47s out of the hands of criminals. I know there are differences on same-sex marriage, but surely we can agree that our gay and lesbian brothers and sisters deserve to visit the person they love in the hospital and to live lives free of discrimination. Passions fly on immigration, but I don’t know anyone who benefits when a mother is separated from her infant child or an employer undercuts American wages by hiring illegal workers. This too is part of America’s promise – the promise of a democracy where we can find the strength and grace to bridge divides and unite in common effort.

I know there are those who dismiss such beliefs as happy talk. They claim that our insistence on something larger, something firmer and more honest in our public life is just a Trojan Horse for higher taxes and the abandonment of traditional values. And that’s to be expected. Because if you don’t have any fresh ideas, then you use stale tactics to scare the voters. If you don’t have a record to run on, then you paint your opponent as someone people should run from.

You make a big election about small things.

And you know what – it’s worked before. Because it feeds into the cynicism we all have about government. When Washington doesn’t work, all its promises seem empty. If your hopes have been dashed again and again, then it’s best to stop hoping, and settle for what you already know.

I get it. I realize that I am not the likeliest candidate for this office. I don’t fit the typical pedigree, and I haven’t spent my career in the halls of Washington.

But I stand before you tonight because all across America something is stirring. What the nay-sayers don’t understand is that this election has never been about me. It’s been about you.

For eighteen long months, you have stood up, one by one, and said enough to the politics of the past. You understand that in this election, the greatest risk we can take is to try the same old politics with the same old players and expect a different result. You have shown what history teaches us – that at defining moments like this one, the change we need doesn’t come from Washington. Change comes to Washington. Change happens because the American people demand it – because they rise up and insist on new ideas and new leadership, a new politics for a new time.

America, this is one of those moments.

I believe that as hard as it will be, the change we need is coming. Because I’ve seen it. Because I’ve lived it. I’ve seen it in Illinois, when we provided health care to more children and moved more families from welfare to work. I’ve seen it in Washington, when we worked across party lines to open up government and hold lobbyists more accountable, to give better care for our veterans and keep nuclear weapons out of terrorist hands.

And I’ve seen it in this campaign. In the young people who voted for the first time, and in those who got involved again after a very long time. In the Republicans who never thought they’d pick up a Democratic ballot, but did. I’ve seen it in the workers who would rather cut their hours back a day than see their friends lose their jobs, in the soldiers who re-enlist after losing a limb, in the good neighbors who take a stranger in when a hurricane strikes and the floodwaters rise.

This country of ours has more wealth than any nation, but that’s not what makes us rich. We have the most powerful military on Earth, but that’s not what makes us strong. Our universities and our culture are the envy of the world, but that’s not what keeps the world coming to our shores.

Instead, it is that American spirit – that American promise – that pushes us forward even when the path is uncertain; that binds us together in spite of our differences; that makes us fix our eye not on what is seen, but what is unseen, that better place around the bend.

That promise is our greatest inheritance. It’s a promise I make to my daughters when I tuck them in at night, and a promise that you make to yours – a promise that has led immigrants to cross oceans and pioneers to travel west; a promise that led workers to picket lines, and women to reach for the ballot.

And it is that promise that forty five years ago today, brought Americans from every corner of this land to stand together on a Mall in Washington, before Lincoln’s Memorial, and hear a young preacher from Georgia speak of his dream.

The men and women who gathered there could’ve heard many things. They could’ve heard words of anger and discord. They could’ve been told to succumb to the fear and frustration of so many dreams deferred.

But what the people heard instead – people of every creed and color, from every walk of life – is that in America, our destiny is inextricably linked. That together, our dreams can be one.

“We cannot walk alone,” the preacher cried. “And as we walk, we must make the pledge that we shall always march ahead. We cannot turn back.”

America, we cannot turn back. Not with so much work to be done. Not with so many children to educate, and so many veterans to care for. Not with an economy to fix and cities to rebuild and farms to save. Not with so many families to protect and so many lives to mend. America, we cannot turn back. We cannot walk alone. At this moment, in this election, we must pledge once more to march into the future. Let us keep that promise – that American promise – and in the words of Scripture hold firmly, without wavering, to the hope that we confess.

Thank you, God Bless you, and God Bless the United States of America.

CNN: 85,000 - 90,000 expected

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Working with Fire Marshall to get everyone in.

Update: And the other guy?

McCain arrived here tonight to news reports that free tickets are still available to his rally tomorrow at a basketball arena at Wright State University. The Nutter Center has a capacity of about 12,000.

While McCain aides have mocked as grandiose Obama's plan to give his acceptance speech before more than 75,000 at the stadium where the Denver Broncos play, McCain's events Saturday and Sunday on his "Road to the Convention" tour are also at stadiums.

Minor league stadiums. Home to the Washington (Pa.) Wild Things of the Frontier League, and the River City Rascals of O'Fallon, Mo. - Washington Post

Remarks of Al Gore

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The Honorable Al Gore
Democratic National Convention
Thursday, August 28, 2008
Remarks as Prepared for Delivery


Read the speech

One of the greatest gifts of our democracy is the opportunity it offers us every four years to change course. It's not a guarantee; it's only an opportunity. The question facing us is, simply put, will we seize this opportunity for change? That's why I came here tonight: to tell you why I feel so strongly that we must seize this opportunity to elect Barack Obama President of the United States.

Eight years ago, some said there was not much difference between the nominees of the two major parties and it didn't really matter who became president. Our nation was enjoying peace and prosperity. Some assumed we would continue both, no matter the outcome. But here we all are in 2008, and I doubt anyone would argue now that election didn't matter.

Take it from me, if it had ended differently, we would not be bogged down in Iraq, we would have pursued bin Laden until we captured him. We would not be facing a self-inflicted economic crisis; we would be fighting for middle- income families. We would not be showing contempt for the Constitution; we'd be protecting the rights of every American regardless of race, religion, disability, gender or sexual orientation. And we would not be denying the climate crisis; we'd be solving it.

Today, we face essentially the same choice we faced in 2000, though it may be even more obvious now, because John McCain, a man who has earned our respect on many levels, is now openly endorsing the policies of the Bush- Cheney White House and promising to actually continue them. The same policies all over again?

Hey, I believe in recycling, but that's ridiculous. With John McCain's support, President Bush and Vice President Cheney have led our nation into one calamity after another because of their indifference to fact; their readiness to sacrifice the long term to the short term, subordinate the general good to the benefit of the few and short-circuit the rule of law.

If you like the Bush-Cheney approach, John McCain's your man. If you want change, then vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

Barack Obama is telling us exactly what he will do: launch a bold new economic plan to restore America's greatness; fight for smarter government that trusts the market, but protects us against its excesses; enact policies that are pro-choice, pro-education and pro-family, establish a foreign policy that is smart as well as strong; provide health care for all and solutions for the climate crisis.

So why is this election so close? Well, I know something about close elections, so let me offer you my opinion. I believe this election is close today mainly because the forces of the status quo are desperately afraid of the change Barack Obama represents.

There is no better example than the climate crisis. As I have said for many years throughout this land, we're borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf to burn it in ways that destroy the future of human civilization. Every bit of that has to change. Oil company profits have soared to record levels, gasoline prices have gone through the roof and we are more dependent than ever on dirty and dangerous fossil fuels.

Many scientists predict that the entire north polar ice cap may be completely gone during summer months in the first term of the next president. Sea levels are rising, fires are raging, storms are stronger. Military experts warn us our national security is threatened by massive waves of climate refugees destabilizing countries around the world, and scientists tell us the very web of life is endangered by unprecedented extinctions.

We are facing a planetary emergency which, if not solved, would exceed anything we've ever experienced in the history of humankind. In spite of John McCain's past record of open mindedness on the climate crisis, he has apparently now allowed his party to browbeat him into abandoning his support of mandatory caps on global warming pollution.

And it just so happens that the climate crisis is intertwined with the other two great challenges facing our nation: reviving our economy and strengthening our national security. The solutions to all three require us to end our dependence on carbon-based fuels.

Instead of letting lobbyists and polluters control our destiny, we need to invest in American innovation. Almost a hundred years ago, Thomas Edison said, "I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that." We already have everything we need to use the sun, the wind, geothermal power, conservation and efficiency to solve the climate crisis-everything, that is, except a president who inspires us to believe, "Yes we can."

So how did this no-brainer become a brain-twister? Because the carbon fuels industry-big oil and coal-have a 50-year lease on the Republican Party and they are drilling it for everything it's worth. And this same industry has spent a half a billion dollars this year alone trying to convince the public they are actually solving the problem, when they are in fact making it worse every single day.

This administration and the special interests who control it lock, stock and barrel after barrel, have performed this same sleight-of-hand on issue after issue. Some of the best marketers have the worst products; and this is certainly true of today's Republican Party. The party itself has on its rolls men and women of great quality. But the last eight years demonstrate that the special interests who have come to control the Republican Party are so powerful that serving them and serving the national well-being are now irreconcilable choices.

So what can we do about it? We can carry Barack Obama's message of hope and change to every family in America. And pledge that we will be there for Barack Obama-not only in the heat of this election, but in the aftermath as we put his agenda to work for our country.

We can tell Republicans and Independents, as well as Democrats, why our nation needs a change from the approach of Bush, Cheney and McCain. After they wrecked our economy, it is time for a change. After they abandoned the search for the terrorists who attacked us and redeployed the troops to invade a nation that did not attack us, it's time for a change. After they abandoned the American principle first laid down by General George Washington, when he prohibited the torture of captives because it would bring, in his words, "shame, disgrace and ruin" to our nation, it's time for a change.

When as many as three Supreme Court justices could be appointed in the first term of the next president, and John McCain promises to appoint more Scalias and Thomases and end a woman's right to choose, it's time for a change.

Many people have been waiting for some sign that our country is ready for such change. How will we know when it's beginning to take hold? I think we might recognize it as a sign of such change, if we saw millions of young people getting involved for the first time in the political process. This election is actually not close at all among younger voters - you are responding in unprecedented numbers to Barack Obama's message of change and hope.

You recognize that he represents a clean break from the politics of partisanship and bitter division. You understand that the politics of the past are exhausted, and you're tired of appeals based on fear. You know that America is capable of better than what you have seen in recent years. You are hungry for a new politics based on bipartisan respect for the ageless principles embodied in the United States Constitution.

There are times in the history of our nation when our very way of life depends upon awakening to the challenge of a present danger, shaking off complacency to rise, clear-eyed and alert, to the necessity of embracing change.

A century and a half ago, when America faced our greatest trial, the end of one era gave way to the birth of another. The candidate who emerged victorious in that election is now regarded by most historians as our greatest president. Before he entered the White House, Abraham Lincoln's experience in elective office consisted of eight years in his state legislature in Springfield, Illinois, and one term in Congress - during which he showed the courage and wisdom to oppose the invasion of another country that was popular when it started but later condemned by history.

The experience Lincoln's supporters valued most in that race was his powerful ability to inspire hope in the future at a time of impasse. He was known chiefly as a clear thinker and a great orator, with a passion for justice and a determination to heal the deep divisions of our land. He insisted on reaching past partisan and regional divides to exalt our common humanity. In 2008, once again, we find ourselves at the end of an era with a mandate from history to launch another new beginning. And once again, we have a candidate whose experience perfectly matches an extraordinary moment of transition.

Barack Obama had the experience and wisdom to oppose a popular war based on faulty premises. His leadership experience has given him a unique capacity to inspire hope, in the promise of the American dream of a boundless future. His experience has also given him genuine respect for different views and humility, in the face of complex realities that cannot be squeezed into the narrow compartments of ideology. His experience has taught him something that career politicians often overlook: that inconvenient truths must be acknowledged if we are to have wise governance.

The extraordinary strength of his personal character - and that of his wonderful wife, Michelle - is grounded in the strengths of the American community. His vision and his voice represent the best of America. His life experience embodies the essence of our motto - e pluribus unum - out of many, one. That is the linking identity at the other end of all the hyphens that pervade our modern political culture. It is that common American identity - which Barack Obama exemplifies, heart and soul - that enables us as Americans to speak with moral authority to all of the peoples of the world, to inspire hope that we as human beings can transcend our limitations and to redeem the promise of human freedom.

Late this evening, our convention will end with a benediction. As we bow in reverence, remember the words of the old proverb: "when you pray, move your feet." Then let us leave here tonight and take the message of hope from Denver to every corner of our land, and do everything we can to serve our nation, our world-and most importantly, our children and their future-by electing Barack Obama President of the United States.

Open Thread - Invesco Edition

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Al Gore coming up. Obama will start around 8:15 local, 10:15 ET. Enjoy.

Long lines

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This picture was from a while ago.

Also, the Obama campaign put an American flag at every seat in the stadium. That's a nice contract for a flag manufacturer somewhere.

Update:

The first three days of the convention felt like the internal party gatherings they were; the giant venue feels like a rally or a sporting event. They're doing the wave in the upper deck. The effect that the campaign was shooting for — an open, rather than a closed gathering — comes through in the stadium, though I'm not sure how it will translate on television.

As at most of Obama's large events, the crowd is strikingly diverse, by race and by age. Martin Luther King III drew their applause for telling them that his father would be proud of the party that nominated Obama and of the country that would elect him.

They're seated unevenly, because a large share of the seats in the stadium are obstructed — behind the stage, or behind the press risers facing it. The seats in front of the stage each had the name of an ordinary supporter taped to it, and they've filed in to fill the inner ring. Beyond them, the seats for delegates on the floor of the convention are almost entirely taken. - Politico

Invesco Phone Bank in Progress

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They couldn't 50,000 cell phone callers - the network couldn't support it, so the Obama folks are holding a lottery:

In the halls of Invesco Field at Mile High here, volunteers are making calls, lured with the promise that if they complete a dozen, their name would be entered in a lottery to win a seat on the field to hear Obama's speech.
And they just started a text message contest to see which state's cell phones could send the most messages

Pepsi Center abandoned

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NY Times:

Inside the Pepsi Center, the jumbo screen still silently streams stars and stripes, but there is no one to salute.
...
It was clear upon entrance today that it was a different day at the Pepsi Center. Aurora Avenue, which had been a long, punishing walk through two sets of security has been returned to its original intent, with cars and buses whizzing by, unfettered by chain link and concrete. The entrance to the arena, a place where you would be Tazer-ed, or worse, for breaching without credentials, has become just one more street corner. I entered gingerly out of habit, patting my pockets for metals to get through non-existent mags.

Excerpts of Obama Speech

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“Four years ago, I stood before you and told you my story – of the brief union between a young man from Kenya and a young woman from Kansas who weren’t well-off or well-known, but shared a belief that in America, their son could achieve whatever he put his mind to.

“It is that promise that has always set this country apart – that through hard work and sacrifice, each of us can pursue our individual dreams but still come together as one American family, to ensure that the next generation can pursue their dreams as well.

“It is why I stand here tonight. Because for two hundred and thirty two years, at each moment when that promise was in jeopardy, ordinary men and women – students and soldiers, farmers and teachers, nurses and janitors -- found the courage to keep it alive.

“We meet at one of those defining moments – a moment when our nation is at war, our economy is in turmoil, and the American promise has been threatened once more.

“Tonight, more Americans are out of work and more are working harder for less. More of you have lost your homes and more are watching your home values plummet. More of you have cars you can’t afford to drive, credit card bills you can’t afford to pay and tuition that is beyond your reach.

“These challenges are not all of government’s making. But the failure to respond is a direct result of a broken politics in Washington and the failed presidency of George W. Bush.

“America, we are better than these last eight years. We are a better country than this.”
***
“This moment – this election – is our chance to keep, in the 21st century, the American promise alive. Because next week, in Minnesota, the same party that brought you two terms of George Bush and Dick Cheney will ask this country for a third. And we are here because we love this country too much to let the next four years look just like the last eight. On November 4th, we must stand up and say: “Eight is enough.”

“Now let there be no doubt. The Republican nominee, John McCain, has worn the uniform of our country with bravery and distinction, and for that we owe him our gratitude and respect. And next week, we’ll also hear about those occasions when he’s broken with his party as evidence that he can deliver the change that we need.

“But the record’s clear: John McCain has voted with George Bush ninety percent of the time. Senator McCain likes to talk about judgment, but really, what does it say about your judgment when you think George Bush was right more than ninety percent of the time? I don’t know about you, but I’m not ready to take a ten percent chance on change.”
***
“You see, we Democrats have a very different measure of what constitutes progress in this country.

“We measure progress by how many people can find a job that pays the mortgage; whether you can put away a little extra money at the end of each month so that you can someday watch your child receive her diploma. We measure progress in the 23 million new jobs that were created when Bill Clinton was President – when the average American family saw its income go up $7,500 instead of down $2,000 like it has under George Bush.

“We measure the strength of our economy not by the number of billionaires we have or the profits of the Fortune 500, but by whether someone with a good idea can take a risk and start a business, or whether the waitress who lives on tips can take a day off to look after a sick kid without losing her job – an economy that honors the dignity of work.

“The fundamentals we use to measure economic strength are whether we are living up to that fundamental promise that has made this country great – a promise that is the only reason I am standing here tonight.”
***
“That’s the promise we need to keep. That’s the change we need right now. So let me spell out exactly what that change would mean if I am President.

“Change means a tax code that doesn’t reward the lobbyists who wrote it, but the American workers and small businesses who deserve it.

“Unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to corporations that ship our jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.

“I will eliminate capital gains taxes for the small businesses and the start-ups that will create the high-wage, high-tech jobs of tomorrow.

“I will cut taxes – cut taxes – for 95% of all working families. Because in an economy like this, the last thing we should do is raise taxes on the middle-class.

“And for the sake of our economy, our security, and the future of our planet, I will set a clear goal as President: in ten years, we will finally end our dependence on oil from the Middle East.

“Washington has been talking about our oil addiction for the last thirty years, and John McCain has been there for twenty-six of them. In that time, he’s said no to higher fuel-efficiency standards for cars, no to investments in renewable energy, no to renewable fuels. And today, we import triple the amount of oil as the day that Senator McCain took office.

“Now is the time to end this addiction, and to understand that drilling is a stop-gap measure, not a long-term solution. Not even close.

“As President, I will tap our natural gas reserves, invest in clean coal technology, and find ways to safely harness nuclear power. I’ll help our auto companies re-tool, so that the fuel-efficient cars of the future are built right here in America. I’ll make it easier for the American people to afford these new cars. And I’ll invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy – wind power and solar power and the next generation of biofuels; an investment that will lead to new industries and five million new jobs that pay well and can’t ever be outsourced.”
***
“We are the party of Roosevelt. We are the party of Kennedy. So don’t tell me that Democrats won’t defend this country. Don’t tell me that Democrats won’t keep us safe. The Bush-McCain foreign policy has squandered the legacy that generations of Americans -- Democrats and Republicans – have built, and we are to restore that legacy.

“As Commander-in-Chief, I will never hesitate to defend this nation, but I will only send our troops into harm’s way with a clear mission and a sacred commitment to give them the equipment they need in battle and the care and benefits they deserve when they come home.

“I will end this war in Iraq responsibly, and finish the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan. I will rebuild our military to meet future conflicts. But I will also renew the tough, direct diplomacy that can prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. I will build new partnerships to defeat the threats of the 21st century: terrorism and nuclear proliferation; poverty and genocide; climate change and disease. And I will restore our moral standing so that America is once more the last, best hope for all who are called to the cause of freedom, who long for lives of peace, and who yearn for a better future.”

Podium(s)

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You'll notice there are 3 podiums at Invesco - two on the sides and the main one in the center. Word is that only Gore and Obama will speak from the center podium.

The upper decks are half full - I would bet everyone will be inside in plenty of time:

Revised Thursday Invesco Schedule

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2008 DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL CONVENTION PODIUM SCHEDULE

Thursday, August 28, 2008
"Change You Can Believe In"
See the schedule...

Time shown as local – Denver, Colorado MST

3:00 PM – 5:00 PM (LOCAL)
Live Performance (before gavel)
Yonder Mountain String Band
Jeff Austin, Adam Aijala, Ben Kaufmann, Dave Johnston

American Voices Program
Remarks
John Kuniholm - Wounded Iraq veteran – North Carolina
Wes Moore – A Rhodes Scholar from New York, former White House Fellow and veteran
Nathaniel Flick – Baltimore best-selling author of “One Bullet Away: The Making of a Marine”
John Estrada – From Orlando, Florida, the highest ranking enlisted Marine for four years

Voter Registration Presentation

Remarks
The Honorable Luis Gutierrez
Member of the US House of Representatives, Illinois

David Plouffe
Obama Campaign Manager

Ray Rivera
Obama State Director, Colorado

The Honorable Jan Schakowsky
Member of the US House of Representatives, Illinois


Call to Order
The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Permanent Chair, Democratic National Convention
Member and Speaker of the US House of Representatives, California

Invocation
Rabbi David Saperstein
Director, Religious Action Center of Reform Judaism – Washington, DC

Presentation of Colors
Disabled American Veterans

Pledge of Allegiance
Shawn Johnson
US Olympic Gymnast

National Anthem
Jennifer Hudson
Academy award-winning singer and Broadway performer

Remarks
The Honorable Elbra Wedgeworth
President/Chair, Denver Host Committee

Reading of Resolutions
Democratic National Committee Vice-Chairs
Mark Brewer
The Honorable Linda Chavez-Thompson
The Honorable Mike Honda
The Honorable Lottie Shackelford
Susan W. Turnbull

Remarks
The Honorable Bill Ritter, Jr.
Governor of Colorado

The Honorable Ed Perlmutter
Member of the US House of Representatives, Colorado

The Honorable John Salazar
Member of the US House of Representatives, Colorado

The Honorable Diana DeGette
Member of the US House of Representatives, Colorado

5:00 PM – 6:00 PM (LOCAL)
Video & Remarks
The Honorable Howard Dean
Former Governor of Vermont
Chair of the Democratic Party

Video & Remarks: Tribute to Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
The Honorable John Lewis
Member of the US House of Representatives, Georgia
Rev. Bernice King
Daughter of the late Dr. King
Martin Luther King, III
Oldest son of the late Dr. King

Live Performance
will.i.am
Accompanied by John Legend (piano), Agape Choir, and band

Remarks
Ray Rivera
Obama State Director, Colorado

Live Performance
Sheryl Crow
Singer/songwriter

6:00 PM – 7:00 PM (LOCAL)
Remarks
The Honorable Mark Udall
Member of the US House of Representatives, Colorado

The Honorable Tim Kaine
Governor of Virginia

The Honorable Bill Richardson
Governor of New Mexico

Live Performance
Stevie Wonder
Singer/songwriter

Remarks
The Honorable Al Gore
Former Vice President of the United States

7:00 PM - 8:00 PM (LOCAL)
Live Performance
Michael McDonald
Singer/songwriter

Remarks
Susan Eisenhower
Granddaughter of President Dwight D. Eisenhower

Retired Generals Tribute
Air Force Maj. Gen. J. Scott Gration (Ret)
Accompanied by additional generals

American Voices Program
Roy Gross – Michigan Teamster car transport driver affected by decline in car manufacturing
Monica Early – New to campaigning, this Akron mother & grandmother is an Obama volunteer
Janet Lynn Monacco – Struggling small business owner from Melbourne, FL with health issues
Teresa Asenap – Albuquerque, New Mexico public school worker concerned about economy
Pamela Cash-Roper – Unemployed nurse and lifelong Republican from North Carolina
Barney Smith – Marion, Indiana plant worker - lost job of 30 yrs when plant moved to China

8:00 PM – 9:00 PM (LOCAL)
Introduction of Barack Obama Video
The Honorable Richard Durbin
US Senator, Illinois

Remarks
SENATOR BARACK OBAMA
DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE

Benediction
Pastor Joel Hunter
Senior Pastor of Northland in Central Florida

Adjournment
The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Permanent Chair, Democratic National Convention

From Invesco, 3:30 Denver Time

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Ed Espinoza has has heard from colleagues on line that it has now grown to 2 - 3 miles.

Also note the program was supposed to start at 3 MT, 5 ET. Clearly it has not. It remains to be seen if they had buffer built in, or if things will be canceled.

Update: CNN says program is starting at 4:10 MT, 6:10 ET.

Update: Revised schedule has just been posted above. The 4:10 start was for Pelosi to officially open the convention, which she did at 4:05. So they are on schedule. Jennifer Hudson doing a great job on the anthem.

Heading off to Invesco

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Jumping on a DNC delegate shuttle to Invesco. You can keep up with me on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/jeffstrater

I have also updated my blog with some pictures at http://jstrater.blogspot.com

My friend Erin is doing a much better job blogging than I am at http://lgbtdelegate.blogspot.com/

It has been a pleasure getting to know the DCW audience. I can't believe this day is here!

Oreo's Pictures from Invesco

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Enthusiasm Gap - take 14

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One standard GOP tactic, which they're good at getting the media to bite on, is to attack a Democrat's strength and try and turn it into a weakness. The Swiftboat attacks against Kerry and the Celebrity attacks against Obama are cut from the exact same cloth. For Obama, they're trying to use one of his advantages, the ability to attract large crowds with great enthusiasm, and turn it into a negative. The crazy comments about the set at Invesco are the same thing.

But when it comes down to it, Obama will have 75,000 people in Invesco tonight. McCain is trying to counter that with 10,000 people in Ohio tomorrow to announce his VP pick. Only one problem. They can't even get 10,000:

Tickets are still available for Sen. John McCain's Friday, Aug. 29, rally at Wright State University's Nutter Center in Fairborn. - Dayton Daily News

They're giving away free tickets in several states and plan to bus in supporters. The VP announcement can't be overshadowed by a less-than-capacity crowd. - Marc Ambinder

One other thing: I will give the GOP great credit on stringing along the press on the VP rollout. Last night, they leak that McCain has decided. Today, McCain says, no I haven't. It's all nonsense, but the press laps it up.

Update from Doc Jess: I'm not saying I know where these Republicans are, but Ron Paul has officially sold 9,721 tickets to the Rally for the Republic, and if you wanted to take a leisurely drive from Ohio to Minnesota, see some sights on the way, and get there by Sunday.....