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We'll have lot more on the 2010 races in the future, but here's little nugget on who the most endangered incumbent might be:
Public Policy Polling did three surveys over the summer looking at Mel Martinez's job approval rating and how some potential opponents would fare against him.23% approval rating, and in the mid-30s against various Congressmen? Ouch.
In June his approval rating was 23%, in July it was 24%, and in September it was 23%.
We found that in hypothetical 2010 matchups Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink would lead Martinez 37-31, Congressman Robert Wexler would be tied with him 31-31, former Senator Bill Graham would lead him 51-31, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman-Schultz would lead him 38-37, Congressman Allen Boyd would lead him 37-33, and Congressman Ron Klein would lead him 37-33. Martinez is probably the most endangered incumbent in the country for 2010 and given his lack of popularity even with Republicans is ripe for a strong primary challenge. - PPP