Tuesday, October 14, 2008

House Forecast - 10/14

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DCW House Forecast: 247.9 (+11.9) [was 246.5 (+10.5)]. Rothenberg made the big move, going from 9.5 to 15.6 seats. And AZ-3 has been added to the chart, with two projections moving it to RL. But also moving to RL, in 3 projections, was the Dem seat of FL-16.

Be sure to also check out our Presidential Forecast and Senate Forecast.

The DCW House Forecast is an average of the projections of Democratic seats in the 2009 House.

We only list those seats which at least one our sources shows to be Leaning or Tossup, except for NY-13, which is a pickup. Seats which are classified as Likely, Solid or Strong by all sources are not shown, but, of course, will be added if there are changes.

The columns are sorted by each sources House Projection. The races are sorted Republican first, then Dem, and then by the likelihood of the seat flipping.

DCW House Forecast
State
CurrentRothSSPCookCrystal BallCQ....
Date

10/1410/1410/139/2410/14
Dem

146951
Dem-Lean

718111821
Tossup

3625301920
Rep-Lean

515131821
Rep

75696
Dem-Prediction

38.635.935.432.532.0
Dem (not shown)

213213213213213
House Projection

251.6248.9248.4245.5245.0
Dem-Gain

15.612.912.49.59.0

NY 13 (Open)
RDDDDD
NY 25 (Open)
RDDDDLDL
VA 11 (Open)
RDLDLDDLDL
AZ 1 (Open)
RDLDLDLDLDL
AK AL (Young)
RDTTDLDL
IL 11 (Open)
RTTDLDLDL
OH 16 (Open)
RDLDLTTT
NV 3 (Porter)
RDLTTTT
CO 4 (Musgrave)
RTTTTT
CT 4 (Shays)
RTTTTT
MI 7 (Wahlberg)
RTTTTT
MN 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 3 (Open)
RTTTTT
NJ 7 (Open)
RTTTTT
NM 1 (Open)
RTTTTT
OH 15 (Open)
RTTTTT
AL 2 (Open)
RTTTTRL
FL 24 (Feeney)
RDLTTRLRL
LA 4 (Open)
RTTTTRL
MI 9 (Knollenberg)
RTTTRLT
NC 8 (Hayes)
RTTTRLT
PA 3 (English)
RTTTRLT
WA 8 (Reichert)
RTRLTTT
FL 21 (Diaz-Balart)
RTTTRLRL
NM 2 (Open)
RTTTRLRL
NY 29 (Kuhl)
RTTTRLRL
OH 1 (Chabot)
RTTTRLRL
IL 10 (Kirk)
RTTRLRLRL
FL 8 (Keller)
RTRLTRRL
MO 9 (Open)
RTRLRLRLRL
NY 26 (Open)
RTRLRLRLRL
VA 2 (Drake)
RTRLRLRLRL
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
RTRLRLRRL
MD 1 (Open)
RTRLRLRLR
MO 6 (Graves)
RRLRLRLRLRL
KY 2 (Open)
RTRLRLRR
ID 1 (Sali)
RRLRLRLRLR
NV 2 (Heller)
RRRLRLRLRL
OH 2 (Schmidt)
RRLRLRRLRL
CA 4 (Open)
RRLRLRRRL
AZ 3 (Shadegg)
RRRLRLRR
FL 13 (Buchanan)
RRRRRLRL
NE 2 (Terry)
RRRRLRR
WV 2 (Moore Capito)
RRRRRRL
WY AL (Open)
RRRRRRL

FL 16 (Mahoney)
DTRLRLTRL
TX 22 (Lampson)
DRLTTTT
LA 6 (Cazayoux)
DTTTTT
PA 11 (Kanjorski)
DTTTTT
AL 5 (Open)
DTDLTTT
KS 2 (Boyda)
DTDLTTT
NH 1 (Shea-Porter)
DTDLTDLT
PA 10 (Carney)
DTDLTDLDL
CA 11 (McNerney)
DTDLDLDLDL
GA 8 (Marshall)
DTDLDLDLDL
PA 4 (Altmire)
DDLDLDLDLDL
WI 8 (Kagen)
DDLDLDLDLDL
AZ 5 (Mitchell)
DDDLDLDLDL
AZ 8 (Giffords)
DDDLDLDLDL
KY 3 (Yarmuth)
DDDLDLDLDL
MS 1 (Childers)
DDDLDLDLDL
IL 14 (Foster)
DDDLDDLDL
IN 9 (Hill)
DDDDLDLDL
NY 20 (Gillibrand)
DDDLDDLDL
OR 5 (Open)
DDDLDDDL
CT 5 (Murphy)
DDDDDDL
MN 1 (Walz)
DDDDDDL
TX 23 (Rodriguez)
DDDDDDL


RothSSPCookCrystal BallCQ....



















































































































The House Projection for each source gives Democrats 1.0 seats in a state that is projected solid for the Democrat, 0.8 seats for a Democrat-Lean, 0.5 seats for a a Tossup, 0.2 seats for a Republican-Lean, and 0 seats for a solid Republican seat.