General Election Tracker - June 11

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This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/11: Updated OpenLeft, Frontloading and Electoral-Vote.com

Obama Average: 275.2 (was 277.8), due in large part to 3 projections moving South Carolina from Tossup to McCain-Lean, which was due to a new Rasmussen Poll showing McCain with a 48-39 lead. As we expected, the tossups didn't hold.Which removes South Carolina from the list of states spanning 3 categories. We still have:

Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com has it as a toss-up - that won't last.

Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now.

Indiana: Three have it as a toss-up, but NPR has it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

New Mexico: OpenLeft has it as Obama-Lean, CNN at McCain-Lean

North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last.

Map showing consensus of sources. Wisconsin moves from Obama to Tossup, as the last Obama-Lean ranking goes away. (But late update: A new poll just came out giving Obama a 13 point lead - expect WI to move quickly to Obama-Lean across the board).

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>


Consensus solid states:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY - 78 EVs
(June11: TX added to McCain consensus solid states due to EV.com moving from ML to M.

The sources are now sorted by their Obama Estimate. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State	EVs	OpenLeft	Electoral- Vote.com	NBC	CNN	538.com	Front Loaded	NPR	....
Date		6/10	6/11	6/5	6/9	6/7	6/11	6/9
Obama (O)		185	175	153	153	178	142	143
Obama-Lean (OL)		57	59	47	37	50	65	57
Tossup (T)		89	94	138	154	94	129	111
McCain-Lean (ML)		61	57	84	69	78	56	110
McCain (M)		146	153	116	125	138	146	117
Obama Total		242	234	200	190	228	207	200
McCain Total		207	210	200	194	216	202	227
Obama Est		287.3	280.6	276.4	273.4	273.1	269.7	266.1
Florida	27	ML	M	T	T	ML	ML	ML
Pennsylvania	21	OL	OL	T	T	OL	T	T
Ohio	20	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Michigan	17	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Georgia	15	M	M	ML	ML	M	M	ML
New Jersey	15	O	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL
N. Carolina	15	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Massachusetts	12	OL	O	O	O	O	OL	O
Indiana	11	T	T	ML	ML	ML	T	M
Missouri	11	T	T	ML	T	T	T	ML
Tennessee	11	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML
Washington	11	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	OL
Minnesota	10	O	O	OL	T	O	OL	OL
Wisconsin	10	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Colorado	9	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	T
Louisiana	9	M	ML	ML	ML	M	M	ML
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML
S. Carolina	8	ML	ML	M	M	ML	ML	M
Conn.	7	O	T	O	O	OL	O	OL
Iowa	7	OL	OL	T	T	OL	OL	T
Oregon	7	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL	OL
Arkansas	6	M	M	ML	ML	M	M	ML
Mississippi	6	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	ML	M	M	M	M
Nevada	5	ML	ML	T	T	T	T	T
New Mexico	5	OL	T	T	ML	T	T	T
W. Virginia	5	M	ML	M	ML	ML	M	ML
Maine	4	O	O	OL	OL	O	O	OL
NH	4	T	OL	T	T	T	T	T
Alaska	3	ML	ML	M	M	ML	ML	M
Delaware	3	OL	OL	O	O	O	OL	OL
Montana	3	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML
N. Dakota	3	T	ML	ML	M	ML	T	M
S. Dakota	3	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M

Notes:
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.