Thursday, June 12, 2008

General Election Tracker - June 12

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/12: Updated OpenLeft, 538 and Electoral-Vote.com

Obama Average: 275.3 (was 275.2), some Indiana movement for McCain, Colorado and Wisconsin movement for Obama.

Here are the states that span 3 categories:

Connecticut: Electoral-vote.com has it as a toss-up - that won't last.

Florida: NBC and CNN have it as a tossup, but Electoral-vote.com has it as Strong McCain. Expect everybody to move to McCain-Lean for now.

Indiana: Only Frontloading HQ still has it as a toss-up, but NPR has it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

New Mexico: OpenLeft has it as Obama-Lean, CNN at McCain-Lean

North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last.

Map showing consensus of sources. Wisconsin moves back to Obama.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Consensus solid states:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY - 78 EVs

The sources are now sorted by their Obama Estimate. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVsOpenLeft538.comElectoral-
Vote.com
NBCCNNFHQNPR....
Date

6/126/126/126/56/106/116/9
Obama (O)

182178175153153142143
Obama-Lean (OL)

70695947376557
Tossup (T)

687583138154129111
McCain-Lean (ML)

727068846956110
McCain (M)

146143153116125146117
Obama Total

252247234200190207200
McCain Total

218213221200194202227
Obama Est

286.4278277.3276.4273.4269.7266.1

Florida
27MLMLMTTMLML
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOLTTTT
Ohio
20TTTTTTT
Michigan
17TTTTTTT
Georgia
15MMMMLMLMML
New Jersey
15OLOLOLOLOLOLOL
N. Carolina
15MLMLMLMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTTTT
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOLO
Indiana
11MLMLMLMLMLTM
Missouri
11TTTMLTTML
Tennessee
11MMMMMMML
Washington
11OOOOLOLOLOL
Minnesota
10OOOOLTOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLTTTTT
Colorado
9OLOLOLTTTT
Louisiana
9MMMLMLMLMML
Kentucky
8MMMMMMML
S. Carolina
8MLMMLMMMLM
Conn.
7OOLTOOOOL
Iowa
7OLOLOLTTOLT
Oregon
7OOOOLOLOLOL
Arkansas
6MMMMLMLMML
Mississippi
6MMMLMLMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMLMMM
Nevada
5MLTMLTTTT
New Mexico
5OLTTTMLTT
W. Virginia
5MMLMLMMLMML
Maine
4OOOOLOLOOL
NH
4TTOLTTTT
Alaska
3MLMLMLMMMLM
Delaware
3OLOOLOOOLOL
Montana
3MLMLMLMLMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TMLMLMLMTM
S. Dakota
3MMLMMMMM































































Notes:
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.

Comments (8)

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Mike in Maryland's avatar

Mike in Maryland · 880 weeks ago

Just the fact that Virginia is consider a toss-up, and Indiana is 'leans McSame' at this point says a lot about the weakness of McSame as the Repig candidate! Those two states should easily be 'dark red' right now, indicating heavy, if not prohibitive, favorite for the Repig candidate.

Mike
Reply
It's awfully early to be projecting anything for certain - but I think Obama will win 30 of the 50 states and he will win with at least 345 EVs :)
Reply
I have to say that I agree with anonymous' comments on yesterday's GE Tracker - there's something wrong with your "consensus" methodology if you've got NH blue when six out of seven sources call it a toss-up. Likewise MS, NV and WI - the prevalent view is clearly that those are all toss-up states. You have a stronger case for PA and CO being blue, but even so it's arguable.
Reply
JayZed,

Consensus solid states:

Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.

McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY - 78 EVs

NH is not listed as one of the consensus blue states.

I think the red and blue in the map is strictly based on how many polls favor one or the other. I think the greys in the map only show those which neither candidate has the advantage in the number of sites.
Reply
Justin Gilmore's avatar

Justin Gilmore · 880 weeks ago

Does any one realize that with the current info that if McCain could take Michigan and Ohio and Obama takes New Mexico and Virginia, both candidates will be at 169. Could this really happen?
Reply
Kelly, NH is not listed as a "consensus solid" state, but the map showing red/blue states purports to show the "consensus of sources". The consensus of sources is clearly that NH is a toss-up, not that it's an Obama state.
Reply
Jayzed

Take a look at my comment again. I explained that.
Reply
Still too early, but we will see...

I think Ohio and Fla will be red...
Reply

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