Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Obama up in new polls in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania

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  • Florida: Obama 47, McCain 43
  • Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42
  • Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40 - Quinnipiac
The Florida result is going to shock the political world today, with 5 out of our 9 General Election sources calling Florida "Lean McCain".

Update: To make matters worse for McCain in Florida, his decision to support offshore drilling may very well hurt him in the Sunshine State.
It's an easy prediction that Democrats are already making television ads featuring oil spills ruining Florida's pristine beaches and tourism industry.

Today, a new Quinnipiac poll actually shows McCain trailing Obama in Florida by four points. At best for McCain, Florida is going to be competitive and oil drilling will be a key issue in the campaign. At worst, McCain just seriously hurt his chances in a critical swing state. - CQ Politics

Posted by Matt at 7:08 AM

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Kevin M's avatar

Kevin M · 880 weeks ago

You forgot to mention that they also said "Clinton On The Ticket Does Not Help Dems"
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Robert's avatar

Robert · 880 weeks ago

You people are delusional if you think Obama is up in Florida!
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Kevin M's avatar

Kevin M · 880 weeks ago

It's just a poll, dude. FL and OH seem like they'll be close calls, again. Hope we can cut down on the voting irregularities this time. I'd love Obama to have a landslide of the Electoral College. We could really use a clear-cut election.
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DocJess 71p · 880 weeks ago

No one should be surprised by these results. Earlier polling in all three states indicated that Obama and McCain were either tied OR McCain was slightly ahead. But there was a third party in the picture, splitting the Democratic vote. Many people, several weeks/months ago were very "partisan" towards their chosen Democratic candidate, and therefore would say "McCain" in the "Obama-McCain" match-up, when what they really wanted to say was "Hillary".

Now that there are two choices, you can expect the chasm to widen, and see Obama's lead build as more and more HRC supporters understand that, personalities aside, there is little daylight between the Democratic positions, and a world of hurt between the Democratic positions and the Republican ones.

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Richard · 880 weeks ago

DocJess said "Many people, several weeks/months ago were very 'partisan' towards their chosen Democratic candidate, and therefore would say 'McCain' in the 'Obama-McCain' match-up, when what they really wanted to say was 'Hillary'."

That is the most eloquent way of describing the plight of disaffected Clinton supporters who claimed to prefer McCain to Obama that I have read. It almost makes me sympathize with them.
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Kevin M's avatar

Kevin M · 880 weeks ago

Agreed, Jess.

I also think polls underestimate the apathy that many GOP voters have toward their candidate, and the enthusiasm of Obama voters.

Remember that all of these polls use certain criteria to determine "likely voters". If 90% of these people who say they support Obama turn out at the polls, while only 60% of those who state their support for McCain show up, it makes a huge difference.

McCain is a cold fish at the podium and has an acerbic character that will come out more and more as this race goes on. He's just not very likable! And national politics has a strong charisma component to it. Obama's got charisma in spades. McCain's got... well Kool-aid drinking NeoCons, to be honest, and even THEY aren't overly enthused about this candidate.
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kmill14 · 880 weeks ago

This election is turning into a very different one from 2004. While Ohio and FL are still toss-ups (with OH clearly leaning DEM), VA and NC are in play, plus CO, NM and NV. Even Kentucky, which was strongly against Obama in the primaries, is ONLY a 11% advantage right now for McCain.
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Joe's avatar

Joe · 880 weeks ago

There was a poll released today by the American Research Group that showed Obama ahead five percent in Florida. And for that matter, the ARG also released a poll showing Obama ahead 12 percent in New Hampshire (which is actually a bit hard to believe).
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uplandpoet · 880 weeks ago

not only has McCain ceded Florida, Gov Crist has jumped on board, too. The way I read the last few times this has come up, about 100% of all Florida Dems would vote against their mother if she supported off shore drilling, and about 50% of the Fla GOP feel the same way, this is gonna look like the reverse of the miagration of racists to the GOP after the civil rights bill. The FLA GOP may have to bus in members from out of state to get a quorum!!!
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tmess2 · 879 weeks ago

I wouldn't call them disaffected Clinton supporters. Some people preferred Clinton to Obama. When Clinton was running, they did not want to admit that they preferred Obama to McCain because that would hurt their first choice when her best argument was electability. These people are no more disaffected than say Bradley supporters were in 2000. It's part of politics that sometimes your first choice doesn't win the primary. It happens in every election. To be disaffected, there would have to be a real difference between the positions of Senator Obama and Senator Clinton and there just isn't one.
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