WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com
All sidebar numbers, lists and tables are now up-to-date.
Obama has pulled in 28 endorsements today (all full votes). Clinton lost a net of 2 endorsements, losing 3 and gaining 1.
Final numbers from Tuesday: Obama +59.5, Clinton -8
Added Rep. Chris Van Hollen (MD) for Obama
Switched VP Walter Mondale (MN) from Clinton to Obama
Added Sen. Frank Lautenberg (NJ) for Obama
Added Gov. Phil Bredesen (TN) for Obama
Added DNC Gray Sasser (TN) for Obama
Added DNC Inez Crutchfield (TN) for Obama
Added Rep. Rahm Emanuel (IL) for Obama
Added Rep. Mike Doyle (PA) for Obama
Added Sen. Ken Salazar (CO) for Obama
Added Sen. Tom Harkin (IA) for Obama
Added Rep. Tom Udall (NM) for Obama
Added Sen. Ben Cardin (MD) for Obama
Added Sen. Herb Kohl (WI) for Obama
Switched DNC Karen Hale (UT) from Clinton to Obama
Added Sen. Ron Wyden (OR) for Obama
Added Terry Goddard (AZ)# for Obama
Added Rep. John Salazar (CO) for Obama
Added Rep. Mark Udall (CO) for Obama
Added DNC David Strauss (ND) for Obama
Added Sen. Tom Carper (DE) for Obama
Added Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA) for Obama
Switched Sen. Barbara Boxer (CA) from Clinton to Obama
Added DNC Paula Zellner (WI) for Obama
Added DNC Ed Cote (WA) for Obama
Added DNC Sharon Mast (WA) for Obama
Added DNC Cheryl Chapman (SD) for Clinton
Switched Sen. Tim Johnson (SD) from Obama to Clinton
Added Rep. Michael Michaud (ME) for Obama
Added DNC Ivan Holmes (OK) for Obama
Added Rep. Susan Davis (CA) for Obama
Switched DNC Claude "Buddy" Leach (LA) from Clinton to Obama
del.icio.us
67 comments:
Are you guys watching Clinton address at AIPAC? She's all but endorsing Obama!
You guys are the best!
Harkin et al at 1:00 today
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/undeclared-senators-move-to-obama-2008-06-04.html
Halperin is reporting Rahm Emmanuel for Obama...
thank you all again for all the hard work. Please do update the sidebars as soon as you can. people are deciding what to do and I think this site is often consulted.
frstan,
Scary if SD's are still out there trying to figure out what to do. At this stage, any elected official who is still sitting around needs to be voted out of office!!
Does anyone know where the texts of the AIPAC speeches can be found?
carla, I think tey'll be soon at realclearpolitics.com, if they're not there already.
Two Washington SDs switch from Clinton to Obama
http://blog.oregonlive.com/breakingnews/2008/06/two_key_washington_democrats_w.html
Spelling correction:
Gov. Phil Bredesen (TN) for Obama
not
Bredeson
I just want to take this opportunity to thank DCW for their tireless efforts. You have been the gold standard for so many of us following all of this and I for one am deeply grateful.
Thanks.
(I couldn't find another way to contact you, so I'll give you my appreciation here).
Lautenberg and Christine Pelosi to be removed from the list of uncommitteds
Van Hollen to be removed from the Pelosi club now that he has endorsed
Other than that, it looks up to date. Great job.
Two key Washington Democrats who supported Clinton tells party to back Obama
Posted by The Associated Press June 04, 2008 07:01AM
Categories: Breaking News, Clark County, Politics
Two of Washington state's top Hillary Clinton supporters switched their allegiance to presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama on Tuesday, pushing for unity as Democrats prepared to finally launch their national campaign against Republican John McCain.
The announcements from King County Executive Ron Sims -- who's also a superdelegate -- and former Gov. Gary Locke were somewhat anticlimactic, coming hours after The Associated Press projected Obama's nominating margin.
But Sims' and Locke's decisions to back Obama were still significant: The two were co-chairmen of Clinton's Washington state campaign, and their statements sent a strong signal that all Democrats should line up behind the Illinois senator's campaign for the White House.
In an interview with the AP, Sims expressed his fondness for Clinton and said watching her vigorous Tuesday night speech brought a smile to his face. But by that time, Sims had already informed both campaigns that his superdelegate vote would be cast for Obama at the national convention.
"I believe it's important to take back the White House," said Sims, the state's highest-ranking black elected official. "I think Sen. Obama is an excellent candidate as well, and can bring the excitement and enthusiasm that can change the politics in the United States."
Locke revealed his support for Obama earlier in the day in an interview with The Seattle Times. Locke, the nation's first Chinese-American governor, said he stands ready to help Obama reach out to minority voters around the country if needed.
"I'm glad that it's come to an end," Locke said. "I did not want this matter to go to the convention. We need to be united."
Obama has sealed the nomination, according to the AP tally, based on primary elections, state Democratic caucuses and support from party superdelegates. Clinton pointedly did not concede the nomination after Tuesday's South Dakota and Montana primaries, and used her speech to argue that her wins in battleground states were a crucial harbinger of general election success.
Clinton's third Washington state co-chairman, U.S. Rep. Jay Inslee, said Tuesday night that he would confer with Clinton before making any announcements about his own superdelegate vote.
Washington hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan, and Democrats have taken increasingly strong control of the Legislature and other elected offices.
Nevertheless, state Republican Party Chairman Luke Esser saw positives in the fact that Obama campaigns on a message of change -- a note GOP gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi is sounding against incumbent Democrat Chris Gregoire. Esser also said McCain's history of independence from some Republican principles may resound with Washington voters.
Gregoire, already an Obama supporter, said electing him as president would be key to advancing the priorities of her administration.
"While we've gotten results for families in our state over the last four years, imagine even greater possibilities with the barriers down and a partner in place in our nation's capitol," Gregoire said in a statement.
-The Associated Press
I'm kind of still watching all the delegate movement until Obama gets 2209, just in case Clinton gets stupid and appeals the FL/MI thing...
Matt,
getting any sleep? your work is very admired! You guys really rock this site. Number one. Wish I could have bought you that beer last night.
Most honorable!!!
Shack...
We're still taking donations for our beer fund. Our PayPal link is on the right sidebar ;)
Sidebar tracker numbers are correct for Obama and Clinton as of now.
Remaining is off... working on that next.
Obama just surpassed 400 supers.
- Added Rep. Mike Doyle (PA) for Obama
- Added Sen. Ken Salazar (CO) for Obama
- Added Sen. Tom Harkin (IA) for Obama
Regarding the 2209 number, it would be helpful to post what the delegate count would be if all delegates had a full vote. My sense is that if the result isn't over 2209 already, it's close.
WAMU news just reported Senator Cardin's endorsement of Barack Obama on the radio.
The next President is John McCain, and I will be supporting him in the fall.
I supported Obama in the primaries because I prefer him over Clinton (and Repubs like Romney or Huckabee), but my support for him ends today.
John McCain is not a third term of Bush, rather he is one of the greatest leaders this country has ever had, and will be a Lincoln or FDR.
I believe that the Democratic Party, if true to its values should support John McCain so our country can unite.
http://www.lcsun-news.com/ci_9476649
Tom Udall, but what a wimp!
Sidebar should be 406.5/282.5...
Did you remove Mondale from Clinton's 283.5?
Also 403.5 for Obama may be 2 short, not sure.
Margarett Camplbell (MT) is misspelled in a coupla places "Margaret".
Uh, that would be "Margarett Campbell (MT)" ;)
Sidebar: is Edwards 1.5?
Rep Bob Brady (PA) has endorsed
http://www.timesleader.com/news/ap?articleID=551224
Sen Ben Cardin (MD) has also endorsed.
http://www.nbc4.com/politics/16492162/detail.html
John Vance above had a good idea about a box to show a what if regarding if MI and FL had full voting status.
Here is a quick count:
Michigan add 37 (29.5 pledged, 7.5 super)
Florida add 39 (33.5 pledged, 4.5 super)
From Edwards FL 5
Total 81 added to Obama’s total which as of this post would put him at 2254 and accordingly well above 2209 necessary under Clinton’s best argument.
Former Governor Gary Locke, one of Sen. Hillary Clinton's co-chairs in WA state, told the Seattle Times today that he is acknowledging Sen. Barack Obama's victory in the primary and is switching his allegiance to the Illinois Senator.
King County Executive Ron Sims, an automatic delegate, has also switched his support.
Source:http://politickerwa.com/bryanbissell/1284/locke-switches-obama
Sen Herb Kohl (WI) has endorsed Obama.
http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080604/GPG0101/80604071/1978
Sen Russ Feingold (WI) has also endorsed. Although you have him as endorsed already, he had been a little unclear as to his intentions. This link provides a concrete endorsement that can be taken to the bank.
Clearly the senators have acted in concert.
Sen Ron Wyden (OR) endorses Obama
Sorry here is the link
http://www.blueoregon.com/2008/06/wyden-calls-sup.html
Thanks for the laugh, shawn.
I'm watching until 2209 also. That ensures there's no sillyness at the convention. Or if there is, it won't be fruitful. I watched Obama's speech at AIPAC, but missed clinton's. Will be interested to see the transcript.
It sure sounds like Sen. Tim Johnson (SD) is going with Clinton based on the results of the primary. I'm not sure if you want to consider this a change from Obama to Clinton.
http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/articles/2008/06/04/news/top/doc484617e2b1481732798126.txt
"Aides to Johnson said he voted for Obama but would keep an earlier promise to support the winner of the state's primary if the nomination is still contested at the convention.
That outcome is unlikely, however, after Obama cinched the nod on Tuesday.
In a statement, Johnson said, "It is right that the voters of South Dakota were heard and made their feelings known."
I think the sidebar is still off...should be 410.5 for Obama...
Echoing everyone else's comments: sincere appreciation and thanks for the excellent coverage.
I'm less interested in the 2209/2210 threshold, and I've been watching the delegates trickle in to give Obama 2177. Why this number? It equals 2118 plus 59,which is the number of delegates that were given to Obama from Michigan. Some of the Clinton deadenders feel those 59 delegates were given to Obama without justification, so by passing 2177 that point becomes moot.
Then again, it really doesn't matter whether Obama passes 2118, 2210, or 3000 delegates. In the eyes of some Clinton deadenders, no number of delegates is valid because they feel the whole nomination process was "rigged" or "fixed". I've been watching a new narrative growing among the ever-shrinking number of pro-Clinton bloggers that the entire nomination process was fixed by party insiders and "old school elitists" to hand Obama the nomination -- Clinton 'really won' the nomination but because of backroom shenanigans and dirty politics, helped by a 'biased media' (heh) the nomination was robbed from her. And now (according to the Clinton deadenders), the "elite, stuffed-shirt" superdels are going against the will of the Americans by going for Obama. The popular votes of Americans has been thwarted by the shady dealings of a handful of party elites! Viva Clinton, blah blah blah!!
Sigh - it's the victim mentality at its worst.
The whole point of this is -- don't get obsessed with the 2209/2210 threshold, or any other magical number. While the overwhelming majority of America has accepted Obama winning the nomination fair and square, there will always be a fringe element of Clinton deadenders that will NEVER accept their defeat. So why even try to placate them?
The good news is, the true number of Clinton deadenders is actually astonishingly small. They only seem larger than they are because they are extremely vocal online and in the blogs. (For example, someone examined the last 100,000 messages on the hillaryis44 website, and found that only 310 people total accounted for all of those messages.)
The vast majority of people who have been supporting Clinton are smart, they are realistic and they are Democrats. Many may be angry or saddened right now, but most will come around and support the Democratic party in November. (To sway most Clinton supporters, all you really need to do is say two words: Supreme Court.) The screaming, hissing and moaning by the Clinton deadenders on the blogs do not represent the vast majority of the Clinton supporters out there. So no need to worry about the Clinton fringe element - now it's time to move forward and define the debate between Obama vs. McCain coming up in the next few months.
You should bring back (and update) the superdelegate history tracker graphs. I bet those look awesome with the results of the past few days included.
mhigh -
I agree with your post. The problem though is that it often seems as though Hillary is like those 310 - determined to fight to the end, including trying to change superdelegates' minds up until August or at a minimum waiting for a big Obama issue/failure of some sort.
To all above who are concerned about Obama passing higher levels of totals to eliminate any doubt in Clinton's mind, you're wasting your time. She will either accept defeat or will side with those 310 die-hards on her blog and take it to August. No amount of SD support numbers are really going to affect that IMHO
mhigh -
For what it's worth on your point on 2177 being 59 more votes than the 2118 - they were only counted half, so technically he only "stole" 29.5 votes - so if it makes you feel any better, he's still winning now even if he got zero from MI.
I hope every one starts ignoring all the democratic candidates that ran for the nomination; don't even mention the name(s).
Bottom line is: Sen. Barack Obama is THE democratic presumptive nominee. Let his name be talked about and seen on the entire Web; at least for a few weeks till his lead is well over 15 points against McCain. You may recognize the delegates who are endorsing Obama; do not care for those who are not.
Gentleman,
Obama passed 2209 yesterday evening!!!
You forget that current count includes not full MI and FL delegations, meaning Obama will get 1/2 more vote for every delegate he got from the two states if rules are changed again! Therefore with FL seated at full and MI going 73/55 Clinton Obama gets additional:
- 10 votes from 20 supers
- 38.5 votes from 77 PD in FL
- 25.5 votes from 55 PD in MI instead of 29.5 he has at the moment
Those are total +74
He is officially now at 2179. Therefore in an immpossible scenario he will be 2253!
Relax and enjoy the next President!
EUROPEANS for Obama!
My fracking ISP went down yesterday just before the flood started. I missed all the fun and I had to follow it on stupid CNN!
I think the totals for the superdelegates in the box are off by one. You've got 414.5 Obama, 281.5 Clinton, and 126.5 uncommitted, which only adds up to 822.5. There are 823.5 supers last I heard, so either Obama's or Clinton's is too high by one or the uncommitted is too low by one.
The count has been missing Sam Lieberman since he endorsed for Obama.
Thanks for the numbers, Amot, and your insight, mhigh.
And thank you to the bloggers. this is a great site. I've been reading all primary season. November couldn't come soon enough!
The Mondale link re-directed me to google till I removed the "?nclick_check=1". Once I visited it once, the longer link worked.
Could you change the link to:
http://www.twincities.com/ci_9475540
Great blog! Your attention to detail and clear presentation of the numbers has been great.
Two more, from Washington State, Ed Cote and Sharon Mast.
http://www.examiner.com/a-1424529~Two_of_WA_s_final_superdelegate_holdouts_go_for_Obama.html
But what are all of the others waitin for.
Feingold campaign field director Paula Zellner(superdelegate) also endorsed Obama, wrapping up the three remaining uncommitted Wisconsin superdelegates.
http://www.examiner.com/a-1424477~Feingold__Kohl_endorse_Obama_for_president.html
I don't know about you but all those late endorsement make me sick! If only half of these spineless politician had move for Obama a month ago the primiries would not have lasted that long!
Another one in Maine, Rep. Michaud
http://www.politickerme.com/jessicaalaimo/1749/michaud-last-maine-superdelegate-endorse
two more from Arizona, congresswoman giffords, and state chair bivens.
http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/politics/242182.php
The net superdelegate endorsements for today stand at Obama 25, Clinton minus 1.
Gifford and Bivens are included in the June 3 count.
While Senator Obama is now well past the 2210 by the "alternative count," the proper math for the alternative count is:
+38.5 (the other half of the votes Obama's current support from the pledged delegates in Florida)
-7.5 (the 22 uncommitted delegates who announced for Obama minus the 29.5 from the RBC)
+12.5 (the other half of the unpledged from Michigan and Flordia -- as of current list)
The net adjustment currently is +43.5 which would put Senator Obama just over 2230 by Ickes math.
Amazing job guys over the past 48 hours in particular.
The only two who you might have missed or alternatively felt that the source wasn't strong enough are: Holmes (OK) and Dawson (NY) - both of whom were listed and counted on the Obama site last night. Politico are also counting both.
Holmes comes from a CNN editorial story and Dawson from a widely reported comment by Clayburn during a conference call. These were the two references cited by the Obama site as opposed to anything additional.
Are these two currently on the "not enough to add" list or missed in all the mayhem?
Hillary "suspends" her bid on Friday, and endorses Obama, after 43 reps. (led by Charlie Rangel) in a conference call, and 8 senators kind of force her to get out. The word suspends is a little scary. Word is V.P. is out. Recommended by her fellow senators to go back to the Senate and become a Ted Kennedy like force. HURRAH, I think!
Just a comment - the Obama site shows he received 6 delegates from South Dakota and 9 from Montana - DCW still shows 7 and 8 respectively. Not sure if you all were monitoring the Montana/South Dakota thread so I posted it here for visibility.
I think it now a moot point to count those late endorsement aside from an entertaining side note. I like to say thanks to all the DCW contributors! And I will keep the blog in my bookmarks for a while in the hope that you will find a new way to cover the ongoing general election. It been a strange long trip... But now it finally over!
Is it true that she can not continue to try to raise funds to retire personal debt if she concedes rather than suspends?
Did anyone see any mention of still wanting an initial roll call that would allow her delegates to cast their votes for her?
I'm very suspicious until she releases her delegates.
All - Get your superdelegates endorsements in before midnight. The train is revving up and will be leaving the station...
Mike-in-GA -
Our main tables have 9 for Obama in MT. Just the MT/SD post was out of date. It's been fixed.
As for SD, Green Papers has 7 for Obama, and Green Papers is our source for pledged #s, not the Obama campaign.
its really amazing that some one who's aspiring to be the president of this great country would not respect rules (party rules), party nominating rules (winner/loser), and not magnanimus to accept defeat as soon as opponent reached the magic number. Even Huckabee accepted defeat and congratulated as soon as McCain gathered the necessary number of delegates. She also refused to concede and congratulate after losing Wisconsin and some other states.
What kind of precedence is Hillary setting here? Everyone and every thing has to revolve around her? Now she is imposing herself to be selected as a VP through her surrogates. Did anybody impose a VP on Bill in 1992?
The sooner she is put in her place, the better
- Added DNC Ivan Holmes (OK) for Obama
- Added Rep. Susan Davis (CA) for Obama
- Switched DNC Claude "Buddy" Leach (LA) from Clinton to Obama
Altmire's statement was too wishy-washy to add.
Never found a good enough source for Ralph Dawson.
We didn't get the press release on Ed Smith, so we wonder if it was somehow pulled back. So he wasn't added.
The engines are getting louder. The train is leaving the station at midnight EDT.
Adam, from earlier today, asked for updated history graphs. They've been posted to the front page.
I wish to encourage you to continue to publish the SD endorsements and or changes all the way up to the convention. For the sake of statistics, which interests me greatly, this would be helpful.
I will be doing a statistical wrap up of the primaries and posting a large amount of statistical material on my next week. Will get back with you.
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