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This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web. We will be introducing our Senate tracker over the weekend, and the House tracker later this month.
Update 6/20: DCW Obama Index (explanation below): 298 304 (was 295), the first time the Index has moved over 300. (Calculation error)
First, by popular demand, we added RealClearPolitics, and, we also removed NPR, as they weren't updating their projection.
Second, we saw more major movement for Obama, highlighted by two projections moving Alaska, yes Alaska, to Tossup, one projection moving Georgia to Tossup, two projections moving New Hampshire to Solid Obama, and other movement.
What is the Obama Index? The Overall DCW Obama Index is just a straight average of the Obama Index for each projection. What is the Obama Index for each projection? For all projections other than FiveThirtyEight, the Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the Electoral Votes (EVs) in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean. (And obviously 0% of the Solid McCain states). For FiveThirtyEight, we use his overall estimate of Obama's EVs. (See below for how we determine FiveThirtyEight's state projections).
Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. Changes: New Hampshire moves from Tossup to Obama, and North Carolina moves from McCain to Tossup.
| DCW General Election Tracker | |||||||||||
| State | EVs | 538.com | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | Open Left | RCP | RM | CNN | NBC | FHQ | .... |
| Date | 6/20 | 6/18 | 6/20 | 6/20 | 6/20 | 6/20 | 6/17 | 6/5 | 6/18 | ||
| Obama (O) | 190 | 161 | 193 | 169 | 91 | 200 | 153 | 153 | 153 | ||
| Obama-Lean (OL) | 103 | 123 | 42 | 107 | 147 | 84 | 58 | 47 | 54 | ||
| Tossup (T) | 99 | 80 | 147 | 91 | 137 | 14 | 133 | 138 | 129 | ||
| McCain-Lean (ML) | 110 | 55 | 51 | 46 | 67 | 66 | 69 | 84 | 56 | ||
| McCain (M) | 33 | 119 | 105 | 125 | 96 | 174 | 125 | 116 | 146 | ||
| Obama Total | 293 | 284 | 235 | 276 | 238 | 284 | 211 | 200 | 207 | ||
| McCain Total | 143 | 174 | 156 | 171 | 163 | 240 | 194 | 200 | 202 | ||
| Obama Index | 344 | 310 | 310 | 309 | 291 | 287 | 280 | 276 | 272 | ||
| Texas | 34 | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | |
| Florida | 27 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | ML | |
| Pennsylvania | 21 | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | |
| Ohio | 20 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Michigan | 17 | OL | OL | T | T | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Georgia | 15 | ML | M | T | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | M | |
| New Jersey | 15 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | |
| N. Carolina | 15 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | ML | ML | ML | |
| Virginia | 13 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | T | T | |
| Massachusetts | 12 | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Indiana | 11 | T | M | ML | ML | T | M | ML | ML | T | |
| Missouri | 11 | T | T | T | T | T | ML | T | ML | T | |
| Tennessee | 11 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Washington | 11 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | |
| Arizona | 10 | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Minnesota | 10 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | T | OL | OL | |
| Wisconsin | 10 | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | T | T | T | |
| Colorado | 9 | OL | T | T | OL | T | T | T | T | T | |
| Louisiana | 9 | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Kentucky | 8 | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| S. Carolina | 8 | ML | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Conn. | 7 | O | OL | T | O | OL | O | O | O | O | |
| Iowa | 7 | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | OL | T | T | OL | |
| Oregon | 7 | O | OL | OL | OL | OL | O | OL | OL | OL | |
| Arkansas | 6 | ML | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | ML | M | |
| Kansas | 6 | ML | M | M | ML | M | M | M | M | M | |
| Mississippi | 6 | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nebraska | 5 | ML | M | M | M | M | M | M | ML | M | |
| Nevada | 5 | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | T | |
| New Mexico | 5 | OL | OL | T | OL | T | OL | ML | T | T | |
| W. Virginia | 5 | T | ML | ML | M | M | M | ML | M | M | |
| Maine | 4 | O | O | O | O | OL | O | OL | OL | O | |
| NH | 4 | OL | OL | O | O | T | OL | T | T | T | |
| Alaska | 3 | T | M | T | ML | M | M | M | M | ML | |
| Delaware | 3 | O | O | OL | OL | O | O | O | O | OL | |
| Montana | 3 | T | M | ML | ML | ML | M | ML | ML | ML | |
| N. Dakota | 3 | T | M | ML | T | M | M | M | ML | T | |
| S. Dakota | 3 | T | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | M | |
| 538.com | Elect. Proj. | EV. com | Open Left | RCP | RM | CNN | NBC | FHQ | .... | ||
Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com
RM - Rasmussen
RCP - RealClearPolitics
Here are the states that span 3 categories.
- Alaska (NEW): Two projections amazingly move Alaska to Tossup.
- Connecticut: Only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up - that likely won't last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.
- Georgia: (NEW): Electoral-Vote.com moves it to Tossup, based on the InsiderAdvantage poll
- Indiana: Three sources have it as a toss-up, but 2 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.
- Minnesota: With Survey USA just out with a poll showing Obama only up by 1, CNN's projection of a Tossup doesn't look like as much of an outlier.
- New Hampshire: Two projections move this former? battleground state to Obama-Strong.
- New Mexico: Four projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May.
- North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last. Or will it? There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.
- South Dakota (NEW): 538 moves it to Tossup.
- West Virginia (NEW): 538 moves it to Tossup.
- Wisconsin (NEW): Electoral-Vote.com is the first to move this former battleground state to Obama-Strong.
The Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.
FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on FiveThirtyEight simulation. giving McCain a 1 pt lead. It's only one poll...
Logging you in...
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Leah 85p · 879 weeks ago
Btw.. the RCP at the top of the chart is a dead link.
Matt 75p · 879 weeks ago
Leah 85p · 879 weeks ago
Kevin M · 879 weeks ago
Matt 0p · 879 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 879 weeks ago
stanley · 879 weeks ago
1) Aggregatated forecasts and predictions are fun, to be sure. But some of these poll numbers are months old, and therefore keeping a "complete," 50-state running tally is inherently misleading -- it presents up-to-date data alongside woefully outdated information, giving the appearance that all of it is equally valid when it is obviously not. Moreover, polling results this far ahead of the election are notoriously unreliable (remember the lead Dukakis had back in June, 1988?). Providing a national estimate of electoral votes based on 50 unreliable sets of polling data merely serves to multiply the built-in margin of error 50 times, to the point where aggregates are essentially meaningless.
2) Take a look at the sources above, arranged in descending order of potential Obama EV. I can't help but notice that the more generous estimates come from the most partisan, pro-Obama sites, while the mainstream media offers lower numbers. Could be coincidence, but... isn't it possible that some of us are victims of a little "irrational exuberance?" It certainly seems to me that there's a bit of a "wishful thinking" factor at work here.
3) I really appreciate what Nate over at 538.com has been doing for the last several months, but I think he might be the most irrationally exuberant of all. I'll believe that Missouri, Virginia, and Indiana have voted Democratic when I see the numbers on November 4th. And I won't even mention some of the other "toss-up" states.
I live in Iowa, and am a registered Democrat. I caucused for Obama back in January, I rooted for him (and donated to his campaign) during the primary schedule, and I am very much looking forward to casting my vote for him in November. But I fear that we're getting ahead of ourselves -- there are still several months before then, and I really believe that McCain and the GOP are going to make things ugly at some point along that road. The *worst* thing any Democrat or Obama supporter can do now is to get complacent, and to start celebrating prematurely. Let's take these EV maps and aggregated polls with the grain of salt they deserve, and enjoy them for the entertainment value they offer. But let's never, not for a minute, forget that this isn't anywhere close to being done, and that there is still an awful lot of work to do.
That said, I hope to have some kind of party on November 5th.
Peace,
Stanley (Cedar Rapids, IA)
Leah 85p · 879 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 879 weeks ago
Matt 75p · 879 weeks ago
MKSinSA 0p · 879 weeks ago
Mike · 879 weeks ago
Karen Anne · 879 weeks ago
ngungo · 879 weeks ago
Leah 85p · 879 weeks ago
Election Projection updated late Sunday night.
SarahLawrence Scott · 879 weeks ago
Leah--here's my explanation for the logic behind the Obama Index. "Toss-up" means we don't know which way the state will go, right? But it will certainly go one way or the other. So assume half of the toss-up states go one way, and half the other way. But of course states aren't worth equal numbers of electoral votes. OK--so assume states worth half the number of electoral votes go one way, and half the other way. Likewise, a McCain lean means we think the state will go to McCain, but we might be wrong. So if there are five McCain lean states, maybe we're wrong on one. But which one? Instead, take 20% of the electoral votes from the McCain leaners, and assign them to Obama. Does it represent a number that could actually happen? No, because each individual state is winner take all (except Nebraska and Maine). But does it represent a sort of "average" result implied by that source's evaluation? Yes, more or less.
Of course, as Stanley points out, there's a lot of road between now and November. In my mind, projections at this point tell us two (related) things:
1) What does an Obama (or McCain) victory look like in terms of states? What does a landslide for either look like in terms of states?
2) Which states are the "battlegrounds"?
The interesting thing this time around is that Obama does seem to be "expanding the map." My two questions don't seem to be answered very well right now. For example, let's consider how Obama could achieve a fairly decisive electoral college victory (say in the 300-330 EV range). How would it happen? One way would be to get a bunch of those McCain-lean states in the South (presumably in part through a high African-American turnout). Another way is to get all of the traditional swing states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Michigan, etc.. Yet another is to pull a surprise in the sparsely populated western states, perhaps aided by Barr's candidacy: Alaska, Montana, the Dakotas, along with Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Any of those are possible based on the current projections, and it's not really clear which is most likely. I'll be watching these projections as they evolve to see how these (and other scenarios) start to play out--for example, do the southern states start to move more firmly into McCain's camp, while the traditional battlegrounds go toward Obama?
But like baseball standings in May, I don't think the total right now tells us much, although it's fun to "root." This election could easily end up with anything from a moderately decisive McCain win to an Obama blowout. (The one thing it's hard to imagine is a McCain blowout--in what world does he win the big blue states that Reagan won in his second term, like New York, Illinois, and California? It's not going to happen.)
Stay tuned...
Leah 85p · 879 weeks ago
Leah 85p · 879 weeks ago
http://www.openleft.com/tag.do?tag=Presidential%2...
uplandpoet · 879 weeks ago
uplandpoet · 879 weeks ago
noone · 878 weeks ago
Leah · 878 weeks ago