Friday, June 20, 2008

General Election Tracker - June 20

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web. We will be introducing our Senate tracker over the weekend, and the House tracker later this month.

Update 6/20: DCW Obama Index (explanation below): 298 304 (was 295), the first time the Index has moved over 300. (Calculation error)

First, by popular demand, we added RealClearPolitics, and, we also removed NPR, as they weren't updating their projection.

Second, we saw more major movement for Obama, highlighted by two projections moving Alaska, yes Alaska, to Tossup, one projection moving Georgia to Tossup, two projections moving New Hampshire to Solid Obama, and other movement.

What is the Obama Index? The Overall DCW Obama Index is just a straight average of the Obama Index for each projection. What is the Obama Index for each projection? For all projections other than FiveThirtyEight, the Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the Electoral Votes (EVs) in a state that is solid for him, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean. (And obviously 0% of the Solid McCain states). For FiveThirtyEight, we use his overall estimate of Obama's EVs. (See below for how we determine FiveThirtyEight's state projections).

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. Changes: New Hampshire moves from Tossup to Obama, and North Carolina moves from McCain to Tossup.

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>


Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs. (Note, newly added RCP has CA as Obama-Lean. For now, I'm not adding CA to the table - we'll see if RCP stays at this projection)
Solid McCain: AL, ID, KY (added), OK, UT, WY - 36 EVs

The sources are sorted by each projections Obama Index. The states are sorted by the number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVs538.comElect. Proj.EV.
com
Open LeftRCPRMCNNNBCFHQ....
Date

6/206/186/206/206/206/206/176/56/18
Obama (O)

19016119316991200153153153
Obama-Lean (OL)

1031234210714784584754
Tossup (T)

99801479113714133138129
McCain-Lean (ML)

1105551466766698456
McCain (M)

3311910512596174125116146
Obama Total

293284235276238284211200207
McCain Total

143174156171163240194200202
Obama Index

344310310309291287280276272

Texas
34MLMMMMLMMMM
Florida
27TTTTTMLTTML
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOOLOLOLOLTT
Ohio
20OLOLTOLTOLTTT
Michigan
17OLOLTTTOLTTT
Georgia
15MLMTMLMLMMLMLM
New Jersey
15OOLOLOLOLOOLOLOL
N. Carolina
15TTTTTMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTTMLTTT
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOOL
Indiana
11TMMLMLTMMLMLT
Missouri
11TTTTTMLTMLT
Tennessee
11MLMLMMMMMMM
Washington
11OOOOOLOOLOLO
Arizona
10MLMLMMMMMMM
Minnesota
10OLOLOLOLOLOTOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLOOLOLOLTTT
Colorado
9OLTTOLTTTTT
Louisiana
9MLMLMLMMLMMLMLM
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMM
S. Carolina
8MLMLMLMLMMMMML
Conn.
7OOLTOOLOOOO
Iowa
7OLOLOLOLOLOLTTOL
Oregon
7OOLOLOLOLOOLOLOL
Arkansas
6MLMLMLMMMMLMLM
Kansas
6MLMMMLMMMMM
Mississippi
6MLMLMLMMLMMMLM
Nebraska
5MLMMMMMMMLM
Nevada
5TTTTTTTTT
New Mexico
5OLOLTOLTOLMLTT
W. Virginia
5TMLMLMMMMLMM
Maine
4OOOOOLOOLOLO
NH
4OLOLOOTOLTTT
Alaska
3TMTMLMMMMML
Delaware
3OOOLOLOOOOOL
Montana
3TMMLMLMLMMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TMMLTMMMMLT
S. Dakota
3TMMMMMMMM


538.comElect. Proj.EV.
com
Open LeftRCPRMCNNNBCFHQ....








































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com
RM - Rasmussen
RCP - RealClearPolitics

Here are the states that span 3 categories.
  • Alaska (NEW): Two projections amazingly move Alaska to Tossup.
  • Connecticut: Only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up - that likely won't last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.
  • Georgia: (NEW): Electoral-Vote.com moves it to Tossup, based on the InsiderAdvantage poll
  • Indiana: Three sources have it as a toss-up, but 2 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.
  • Minnesota: With Survey USA just out with a poll showing Obama only up by 1, CNN's projection of a Tossup doesn't look like as much of an outlier.
  • New Hampshire: Two projections move this former? battleground state to Obama-Strong.
  • New Mexico: Four projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May.
  • North Dakota - Two have it as tossup - that won't last. Or will it? There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.
  • South Dakota (NEW): 538 moves it to Tossup.
  • West Virginia (NEW): 538 moves it to Tossup.
  • Wisconsin (NEW): Electoral-Vote.com is the first to move this former battleground state to Obama-Strong.
We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama Index gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on FiveThirtyEight simulation.
giving McCain a 1 pt lead. It's only one poll...