Sunday, June 08, 2008

General Election Tracker

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web. We hope all our readers who are missing their superdelegate fixes will find our General Election coverage equally as interesting and informative.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/8: Added 538.Com

We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

Obama Average: 281.0 (was 282.9) - due to inclusion of 538.com at 273.1

Map showing consensus of sources:

<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>



Consensus solid states:
Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, TN, UT, WY - 63 EVs
(June 8: WV and SD removed from consensus solid state due to inclusion of 538.com)

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVsNBCOpenLeftFront LoadedElectoral-
Vote.com
538.com
Date
6/56/46/56/76/7
Obama (O)
153185152190178
Obama-Lean (OL)
4757555450
Tossup (T)
138861379294
McCain-Lean (ML)
8464487878
McCain (M)
116146146124138
Obama Total
200242207244228
McCain Total
200210194202216
Obama Est
276.4286.4274.1294.8273.1
Alas
3MMLMLMLML
Ark
6MLMMMM
Colo
9TOLTOLT
Conn
7OOOTOL
Del
3OOLOLOLO
Flor
27TMLMLMML
Geo
15MLMMMM
Ind
11MLTTTML
Iowa
7TOLOLOLOL
Louis
9MLMMMLM
Maine
4OLOOOO
Mass
12OOLOLOO
Mich
17TTTTT
Minn
10OLOOOO
Missi
6MLMMMLM
Misso
11MLMLTTT
Mont
3MLMLMLMLML
Nebr
5MLMMMM
Nev
5TMLTMLT
New H
4TTTOLT
New J
15OLOOLOOL
New M
5TOLTTT
North C
15MLMLMLMLML
North D
3MLTTMLML
Ohio
20TTTTT
Ore
7OLOOLOO
Penn
21TOLTOLOL
SC
8MTTTML
SD
3MMMMML
Tex
34MMMMLM
Virg
13TTTTT
Wash
11OLOOLOO
West Virginia
5MMMMML
Wisc
10TTTOLT

































































Note: 538.com state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on 538.com simulation.

9 comments:

mhigh said...

One thing that I am glad about right now is that today (Sunday) is probably the *last* day where Clinton dominates the news cycle -- from here on out I'm looking forward to a quick and decisive shift towards general election coverage. (It started to happen a couple of weeks ago when Bush and McCain were tag-teaming Obama, and for a few days Clinton faded almost entirely into the background; but she managed to drag the spotlight back on her again for one last hurrah).

And with that shift from nomination to general election, I also expect the polling data to change in all sorts of weird ways we cannot predict quite yet. With Clinton **finally** out of the picture, she is no longer muddying up the opinions and thoughts of people being polled anymore. There is a definite difference when a person is asked, "McCain or Obama?", before when there was still a shadow of a doubt whether Obama would be the nominee versus afterwards. We could see poll results skew all over the place over the next few weeks, as Americans get used to the idea of a two-man race for the White House. It could be a bumpy ride, and I'm not sure I could really trust any sort of poll result for a while.

And like everyone watching this site and various other stats-oriented political sites, I'm sure we all have our own ideas of which states are "solid red/blue" or "lean/tie" states. We have our own theories and ideas, even though it is waaaaaaay too early to make predictions at this point. (More like hopes and dreams than predictions, really). Interesting to compare against what the various online sources (like 538) are postulating.

And I have my own personal predictions (based on polling data I essentially pulled out of my azz :) My personal map has 17 solid states/districts for Obama for 207 electoral votes, and 22 solid states for McCain for 202 EVs. Four lean Obama (PA, WI, CO, NM), four lean McCain (VA, MO, IN, ND) and four toss-up (NH, OH, MI, NV). My fantasy November result has Obama winning all Kerry states plus IA, CO, NM, and OH, but losing MI and CT, for a skin-of-the-teeth win. And just about no matter how I slice the pie, it seems like the election boils down to...Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. Most scenarios hinge on that one state.

But, that's all fantasy at this point -- as I said earlier, I'm not willing to trust polls too much right now, at least until we've had a few weeks of actual general election battle under our belts. Until then, it's all fun and games.

Chris said...

This absolutely rocks. Thank you for helping keep me a very informed citizen.

Charlie D. said...

Under "Consensus Solid States," why isn't Texas (TX) listed under McCain as a solid state for him?

3investors said...

WV should also be a solid for McCain. No offense to the citizens there but the consensus from WV is that most people there are more worried about WHAT Obama is than interested in WHO he is.

On the other hand, FL should be a toss up.

26376 said...

Charlie D.: Texasis not listed as "Consensus Solid" because of the five sources listed, only four have Texas as McCain solid; one has Texas as McCain-leaning.

3investors: Same for West Virginia; 4 solid McCain and one leaning.

"Consensus Solid" is not a judgment call by DemConWatch; it is a simple reporting of the numbers from those other five sources. DCW could add more sources (such as 270towin.com, though it is a real pain to get their state-by-state numbers), but there comes a point where different sources may be getting numbers from the same place. But the more sources DCW uses, the less likely a given state is to be reported Consensus Solid. On the other hand, the more sources, the more likely a state that is Consensus Solid really is going to go a specific direction (since it means the more different people with the same goals are looking at data and coming to the same conclusions).

Leah Texas4Obama said...

The CNN map is showing McCain ahead!

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/06/09/cnn-projects-whos-ahead-in-the-fight-for-electoral-college-votes/


.

Matt said...

We just posted a new tracker. They may show McCain ahead, but we just added CNN, and their Obama # is 273.4, as Obama has more of his EV's in strong states, McCain in lean states.

uplandpoet said...

what happened to NPR and CNN in your grid?

Matt said...

They're in the Tuesday edition of the post. Click on the "general election" tag at the bottom of this post, and the latest post will come right up.