General Election Tracker - June 16

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This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/16: FiveThirtyEight modified their recent change in methodology, which knocked 3 EVs from Obama's number.

Obama Index: 288 (was 286). There was scattered movement to Obama in various states, while 3 projections moved Oregon from Obama to Obama-lean.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. (This is a change from previous posts).


<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY - 78 EVs
(late update: AZ, KS, TX no longer Unanimous solid McCain - we will include in table in next update).

The sources are sorted by their Obama Index. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State	EVs	538. com	Elect. Proj.	EV. com	Open Left	RM	NBC	CNN	FHQ	NPR	....
Date		6/16	6/16	6/16	6/16	6/16	6/5	6/10	6/11	6/9
Obama (O)		178	161	168	175	185	153	153	142	143
Obama-Lean (OL)		69	103	76	77	75	47	37	65	57
Tossup (T)		131	100	93	68	38	138	154	129	111
McCain-Lean (ML)		86	55	81	78	66	84	69	56	110
McCain (M)		71	119	120	140	174	116	125	146	117
Obama Total		247	264	244	252	260	200	190	207	200
McCain Total		157	174	201	218	240	200	194	202	227
Obama Index		306	304	291	286	277	276	273	270	266
Florida	27	T	T	ML	ML	ML	T	T	ML	ML
Pennsylvania	21	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T	T	T
Ohio	20	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T	T
Michigan	17	T	OL	T	T	OL	T	T	T	T
Georgia	15	ML	M	M	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML
New Jersey	15	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL
N. Carolina	15	T	T	T	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML	ML
Virginia	13	T	T	T	T	ML	T	T	T	T
Massachusetts	12	O	O	O	O	O	O	O	OL	O
Indiana	11	T	M	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	T	M
Missouri	11	T	T	T	T	ML	ML	T	T	ML
Tennessee	11	M	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML
Washington	11	O	O	O	O	O	OL	OL	OL	OL
Minnesota	10	O	OL	O	O	O	OL	T	OL	OL
Wisconsin	10	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T	T	T
Colorado	9	OL	T	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	T
Louisiana	9	ML	ML	ML	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML
Kentucky	8	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	ML
S. Carolina	8	ML	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	ML	M
Conn.	7	O	OL	T	O	O	O	O	O	OL
Iowa	7	OL	OL	OL	OL	OL	T	T	OL	T
Oregon	7	OL	OL	OL	OL	O	OL	OL	OL	OL
Arkansas	6	M	ML	ML	M	M	ML	ML	M	ML
Mississippi	6	M	ML	ML	M	M	ML	M	M	M
Nebraska	5	M	M	M	M	M	ML	M	M	M
Nevada	5	T	T	T	ML	T	T	T	T	T
New Mexico	5	T	OL	T	OL	OL	T	ML	T	T
W. Virginia	5	ML	ML	ML	M	M	M	ML	M	ML
Maine	4	O	O	O	O	O	OL	OL	O	OL
NH	4	T	OL	OL	T	T	T	T	T	T
Alaska	3	ML	M	ML	ML	M	M	M	ML	M
Delaware	3	O	O	OL	OL	O	O	O	OL	OL
Montana	3	ML	M	ML	ML	M	ML	ML	ML	ML
N. Dakota	3	T	M	ML	T	M	ML	M	T	M
S. Dakota	3	ML	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M

Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com
RM - Rasmussen

Here are the states that span 3 categories. Florida is removed from the list as EV.com moves it from McCain to McCain-Lean.

Connecticut: 538 moved CT all the way from Tossup to Obama, leaving only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up - that likely won't last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.

Indiana: 538 and FHQ now have it as a toss-up, but 3 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

Minnesota: CNN has it as a Tossup. With Obama up 13 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, this won't last. (Of course, it would help if CNN updated their projection).

New Mexico: Three projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May.

North Dakota - Three have it as tossup - that won't last. Or will it? There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.
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We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on FiveThirtyEight simulation.