Monday, June 16, 2008

General Election Tracker - June 16

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is the DemConWatch General Election Tracker, a summary of the best election projections on the web.

We will be introducing House and Senate trackers later this month.

Update 6/16: FiveThirtyEight modified their recent change in methodology, which knocked 3 EVs from Obama's number.

Obama Index: 288 (was 286). There was scattered movement to Obama in various states, while 3 projections moved Oregon from Obama to Obama-lean.

Map showing consensus of sources. This table will show a state Blue or Red if a majority of the sources show it Leaning or Solid for that candidate. (This is a change from previous posts).


<p><strong>><a href='http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/'>Electoral College Prediction Map</a></strong> - Predict the winner of the general election. Use the map to experiment with winning combinations of states. Save your prediction and send it to friends.</p>

Unanimous solid states, not shown in the table below:
Solid Obama: CA, DC, HI, IL, MD, NY, RI, VT - 131 EVs.
Solid McCain: AL, AZ, ID, KS, OK, TX, UT, WY - 78 EVs
(late update: AZ, KS, TX no longer Unanimous solid McCain - we will include in table in next update).

The sources are sorted by their Obama Index. The states are sorted by number of electoral votes.

DCW General Election Tracker
State
EVs538.
com
Elect. Proj.EV.
com
Open LeftRMNBCCNNFHQNPR....
Date

6/166/166/166/166/166/56/106/116/9
Obama (O)

178161168175185153153142143
Obama-Lean (OL)

6910376777547376557
Tossup (T)

131100936838138154129111
McCain-Lean (ML)

8655817866846956110
McCain (M)

71119120140174116125146117
Obama Total

247264244252260200190207200
McCain Total

157174201218240200194202227
Obama Index

306304291286277276273270266

Florida
27TTMLMLMLTTMLML
Pennsylvania
21OLOLOLOLOLTTTT
Ohio
20TTTTTTTTT
Michigan
17TOLTTOLTTTT
Georgia
15MLMMMMMLMLMML
New Jersey
15OLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
N. Carolina
15TTTMLMLMLMLMLML
Virginia
13TTTTMLTTTT
Massachusetts
12OOOOOOOOLO
Indiana
11TMMLMLMMLMLTM
Missouri
11TTTTMLMLTTML
Tennessee
11MMLMMMMMMML
Washington
11OOOOOOLOLOLOL
Minnesota
10OOLOOOOLTOLOL
Wisconsin
10OLOLOLOLOLTTTT
Colorado
9OLTOLOLTTTTT
Louisiana
9MLMLMLMMMLMLMML
Kentucky
8MMMMMMMMML
S. Carolina
8MLMLMLMLMMMMLM
Conn.
7OOLTOOOOOOL
Iowa
7OLOLOLOLOLTTOLT
Oregon
7OLOLOLOLOOLOLOLOL
Arkansas
6MMLMLMMMLMLMML
Mississippi
6MMLMLMMMLMMM
Nebraska
5MMMMMMLMMM
Nevada
5TTTMLTTTTT
New Mexico
5TOLTOLOLTMLTT
W. Virginia
5MLMLMLMMMMLMML
Maine
4OOOOOOLOLOOL
NH
4TOLOLTTTTTT
Alaska
3MLMMLMLMMMMLM
Delaware
3OOOLOLOOOOLOL
Montana
3MLMMLMLMMLMLMLML
N. Dakota
3TMMLTMMLMTM
S. Dakota
3MLMMMMMMMM



































































Notes:
538 - FiveThirtyEight
Elect. Proj. - Election Projection
EV.com - Electoral-Vote.com
RM - Rasmussen

Here are the states that span 3 categories. Florida is removed from the list as EV.com moves it from McCain to McCain-Lean.

Connecticut: 538 moved CT all the way from Tossup to Obama, leaving only Electoral-vote.com having it as a toss-up - that likely won't last. The only poll in the last 3 months showed Obama at +3 in late May.

Indiana: 538 and FHQ now have it as a toss-up, but 3 sources have it as Strong McCain. If Obama can keep this state in McCain-Lean, that's a good sign in a state that Kerry lost by 21%.

Minnesota: CNN has it as a Tossup. With Obama up 13 points in the latest Rasmussen poll, this won't last. (Of course, it would help if CNN updated their projection).

New Mexico: Three projections have it as Obama-Lean, CNN has it at McCain-Lean. There hasn't been a poll here since mid-May.

North Dakota - Three have it as tossup - that won't last. Or will it? There hasn't been a state poll in ND since April.
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We're purposely ignoring Maine and Nebraska CD splits for now to keep things simple. We'll add them in later if we need to.

The Obama estimate gives Obama 100% of the EVs in a state that is solid for them, 80% of the EVs for a leaner, 50% of the EVs for a Tossup, and 20% of the EVs for state that is McCain-Lean.

FiveThirtyEight state projections determined from state winning percentage (>90%: Strong, 65-90%: Lean, 50-65%: Tossup). Overall number based on FiveThirtyEight simulation.