Democratic Convention Watch: Veepstates -- Round 3

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Veepstates -- Round 3

WE'VE MOVED! Democratic Convention Watch is now at http://www.DemocraticConventionWatch.com

This is round three of the veepstakes, the four highest percentage choices from the 10 names in Round 2. Next round will be the final two.

Opinion Polls & Market Research

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SarahLawrence Scott · 871 weeks ago

I missed the first two rounds of this, but I have to say I'm a little surprised where we ended up.

Jim Webb seems to me like it would be a real thumb in the eye of Clinton supporters. Fair or not, there are questions about his views on women in the military and it will send a bad message.

Bill Richardson can be goofy, but Obama seems to give him focus and make him a better candidate.

I'm still not convinced Clark is a heavyweight, but there are claims he's gotten to be a better politician since his Presidential run.

That leaves Sebelius. A bold ticket, certainly. Vulnerable to charges of inexperience, especially in foreign policy. Centrist without being bland or diluting the "change" brand.

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Karen Anne · 871 weeks ago

I also came in late. Jim Webb? That antediluvian sexist? Wes Clark? The Clintons' lap dog? Surely we can do better than this.

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RS · 871 weeks ago

I was for AZ Governor Janet Napolitano, but unfortunately she garnered less than 10% of the vote in the first round... So I will go with my second choice, Governor Sibelius.
I still think Napolitano's the way to go - take the fight right to McCain's homeground:
http://randomsubu.blogspot.com/2008/06/senator-ob...

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DocJess 71p · 871 weeks ago

Here are the links to the previous veepstakes: http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/06/veepstakes...and http://www.demconwatchblog.com/2008/06/veepstakes...

I found it interesting that the outcomes here were in fact different from the outcomes in other veepstakes polls. But the numbers are what they are.

I think the two real questions for Carolyn Kennedy's committee are military vs non-military, and male vs female. There are arguments to be made for each position.

Does picking someone from the military make Obama more attractive to independents who want to see more "war" experience for the troop pull-out, or would such a selection scream "inexperience" when the reality is "experience brought us war where none should have been, and where smarts would have prevented it"?

Does adding a woman who is NOT HRC further wound the feelings of her supporters, no matter how qualified that woman?

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Leah 85p · 871 weeks ago

DocJess - Just to let you know... I have the new FireFox 3.0 browser and up there where the poll should be it only says "Opinion Polls & Market Research". Maybe the the poll graphic is not compatible with the new FireFox version ;(
Does anyone else here have the same problem ?

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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago

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Leah 85p · 871 weeks ago

I don't think Obama needs to pick a military person, and we don't need another person like Cheney as VP. We need a strong president that is making the decisions. Obama will have many people in his cabinet with military and foreign experience and that is good enough. The President and VP need to be good leaders that are willing to seek out others when their knowledge is lacking, but that doesn't mean that those people have to be in the VP spot.

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3 replies · active less than 1 minute ago

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Leah2 · 871 weeks ago

The poll does show up with Internet Explorer but still not with FireFox 3.0 ;(

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Jacob · 871 weeks ago

I can see it with Firefox 3.0 on Ubuntu Linux (after telling NoScript to let it through)
Are you sure you have JavaScript enabled?

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SarahLawrence Scott · 871 weeks ago

Being neither a Clinton supporter in the primary nor a woman, this is certainly just speculation, but I tend to think picking a woman other than Hillary is not particularly antagonizing for her supporters. Much of the lingering resentment among Hillary supporters have to do with the sexism that surfaced during this campaign (and, of course, the sexism that is still part of our broader society); some of it has to do with a feeling that she deserves more respect for coming as close as she did. The second feeling will be there regardless of whom Obama picks, so long as it is not Hillary. The first feeling is not exacerbated if he picks a woman; if anything, it's alleviated a little. I think the notion that picking a different woman for VP is insulting to Clinton (but picking a man for the slot is not) is difficult to generate a lot of enthusiasm for.

Picking Webb, on the other hand, does cause some problems, as Karen Anne's post suggests.

--Scott

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Leah 85p · 871 weeks ago

Well, I AM a woman. And I don't see why Obama should exclude all women possibilities if he doesn't pick Hillary. The whole point of women getting ahead is to look at woman for their abilities not their gender. I think if Hillary were to come out and say that she does not want to be VP and that she would like Obama to consider other women then Obam would be free to go ahead and pick Sebelius without an uproar from the Hillary supporters :)

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1 reply · active less than 1 minute ago

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Thad · 871 weeks ago

Here's why I think Richardson should be veep:

* He is Hispanic and can draw Latino voters, which represent the fastest-growing voting bloc, to Obama's side.

* He is the governor of New Mexico, a key swing state, and is well-liked in the state. The primary purpose of a running mate in the campaign, after all, is to win their home state.

* Foreign policy experience is a moot point this campaign, and with Richardson's extensice experience, he can quell concerns of Obama's inexperience.

* Richardson's Hispanic background helps solidify the one-America image, a key theme in the campiagn.

* If nothing else, he endorsed early.

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Leah · 871 weeks ago

Well this is what I have figured about regarding the poll graphic and the new FireFox on my laptop.
If I come to this page and my font size is decreased too small the poll will not appear, but once I increase my veiw size then it shows up. Once the poll shows up I can decrease and increase my view size up and down and the polls stays where it is supposed to be. Thought I'd post that in case anyone was wondering.

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RS · 871 weeks ago

I didn't see General Anthony Zinni's name anywhere on the previous editions of Veepstakes, but if people really want someone with military experience - I say please, not Wes Clark! I'd rather Obama pick Zinni (of course, my preference is for Janet Napolitano.)
http://randomsubu.blogspot.com/2008/06/zinni-for-...

Zinni has a great answer to McCain's Surge (MTP 2007):
"What has disappointed me is there hasn’t been this debate on the strategy, on the policy, a regional strategy and policy, let alone an Iraq policy. We’re, we’re debating the tactics. The surge is a tactic. In what context is the surge? You can make an argument for a surge if you were going to withdraw, to cover the withdrawal, for example, or to contain, to reposition forces or to re-engage in a different way and a stronger way. And why we got caught up in the tactical debate, in my mind, is an indication that we don’t understand what we want to do. What should our Middle East policy be? What should our policy be in terms of Iraq and, and the war against the extremists out there or the conflict against extremists? We seem to be strategically adrift, in my view."

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Chad_Nielson 57p · 871 weeks ago

WellI fear Wes is out. As someone who has supported many of the compromises Obama has made in the general season (like the FISA bill) as what it takes to win over a still center right electorate. I am disapointed though that he is not going to stand up for what Wes Clark has said, comments that are both true and appropriate, and I think he is compromising too damn much right now.

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Peter Zenger · 871 weeks ago

Looks like Sebelius might be the one...

"I love Kathleen Sebelius. I think she is as talented a public official as there is right now. Integrity. Competence. She can work with all people of all walks of life, but I promised that I am not going to say anything about my vice president until I actually introduce my vice president."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/01/obama-hi...

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Leah 85p · 870 weeks ago

Ya'll might as well call Sebelius the winner of the DCW Veep-Stakes. Clark had the McCain dust-up, Webb has said 'no way', and it ain't going to be Richardson. Obama/Sebelius '08

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2 replies · active less than 1 minute ago

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Leah 85p · 870 weeks ago

From an article over at www.FiveThirtyEight.com
The overall favorites for the Democrats' VP slot according to INTRADE,
translated loosely to Vegas-style odds, are as follows:

Clinton 9-2
Sebelius 9-1
Bayh 10-1
Hagel 10-1
Rendell 12-1
Richardson 12-1
Biden 12-1
McCaskill 15-1
Edwards 15-1
Kaine 15-1
Reed (RI) 20-1
Schweitzer 20-1
Clark 20-1
Gephardt 20-1
Gore 20-1
Nunn 20-1
Bloomberg 25-1
Webb 30-1
Zinni 30-1
Warner 35-1
Reid (NV) 50-1
Jones 60-1
Wexler 80-1
Nelson 100-1
Napolitano 100-1
Daschle 100-1
Easley 100-1

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